Here are three VERY NICE SELL Patterns across 3 securities that represent a majority of the banks/financials that are out there. The PATTERNS are saying sell and, if you look at XLF below, the PATTERNS are only 2-4% away so it’s not that inconceivable that they could go up and tag those targets.
Look – folks WE WANT THEM TO GO UP AND COMPLETE the patterns because then we will have, what I consider a GREAT leading indicator to help us position on the short or long side – FAILED PATTERNS.
IF these patterns hold and work then the banks/financials start down which, invariably, will hit the equities. IF they FAIL then the banks/financials surge higher and the probability that this market melts up gains some higher probability.
So, watch these patterns, very closely. They will give us a good idea on where we are … in some of the briefs I do out there I ALWAYS talk about failed patterns, because they do fail, but these failures, in the market we are in now, are very powerful and indicative of what is “really” going on …
I’ve put a rudimentary “count” of the US Dollar below because we need to develop a gameplan for the coming Santa Claus rally or Santa Claus puts coal in everyone’s stocking …and, I have NO OVERT OPINION on which direction equities will or won’t go …
The US Dollar is VERY important for equities .. here’s an overlay of the S&P 500 and the USD … pretty much every inflection in the dollar leads to an inflection in the equities of the US.
Dollar up – equities down.
Dollar down – equities up.
If you have been following this blog for a while, you know I pretty much “live and die” by the measured move and I was watching the dollar corrective measured move like a hawk and it did not disappoint. It hit perfectly … here it is “real – near real time.”
That level hit nicely and the USD has moved nicely higher as shown below:
So, where are we ? Yes. LOL.
The count is very interesting and, knowing my golf game and counting strokes on the course I’ll give it my best shot. The bullish scenario came from my friends at Elliott Wave. They see the consolidation as a triangle … I didn’t, but it make sense.
This is a BULLISH DOLLAR and therefore BEARISH EQUITIES:
The next one just “looks” better and that’s an expanded flat which, if correct, makes this move down in the dollar probably the 1st of 5 to come in a C wave which will take the dollar substantially lower AND cause equities to find support/continue higher and/or dare I say rocket ship higher?
For now, the bearish dollar count below could rally a few days and then sell off again …
NO MATTER WHAT – FOR ANY OF THE SCENARIOS THE BLUE RECTANGLE ZONE WILL BE THE KEY. PERIOD.
What I’m “concerned” about is the TIME component of the bullish chart above. We are correcting a 5 wave move that was 15 years in the making. On the first wave two correction (a perfect ABDC OBTW) it took “two” of the blue measured moves before it started rocking and rolling again … the wave four correction had one of the blue arrows and the other wave down wasn’t an exact measured move but notice the TIME that it took … so, now, after this 15 year move your going to simply do one “blue measured move” correction down and that’s the a-b-c and off we go higher?
Natural Gas is at a very key junction w/ regard to price and a bullish move.
This is based on the MAJOR buy pattern on the monthly shown below. That pattern hit w/ both PRICE and TIME and that is the reason this “huge support” shown is such a big deal on the Nat Gas.
For those of you suffering w/ me in UNG I offer this very well written piece that was published just recently:
While I was aware of these type of situations having once been a CTA (focused on spot currency markets), I did not think it would effect this opportunity in such a way. Full disclosure I bought UNG in/around the mid 9’s and ran it all the way up to 34 and STILL OWN IT. Why … ?
Well, it’s not good investing – check.
BUT (always the “but”) I want to ride a wave from the very beginning (or what I thought was a BIG LOW) and go thru the ups and downs to understand how my FEELINGS/EMOTIONS would not only be reflected in how I viewed the chart and it’s price action but also how it actually felt to live thru the emotions of fear and greed just like they talk about w/in the “psychology of Elliott Wave.” So far, they have been pretty accurate.
So, folks, this ones a loser. My gameplan is to look for a low … I have another target down in the 3’s believe that one or not but really watch this PATTERN on NAT GAS to see if it holds.
No regrets .. it’s been a great year but this one has most definitely been in the “other” category. I’m going to put the best strategy in the world to work – HOPE- and look for that bounce up to around my entry and then gracefully exit this science experiment. Unless, of course, greed gets a hold of me and somehow I think this thing is really going to rocket to the moon … yeah.
Appears, since the last post on Transports is in tact but the 3 wave sale signal and H+S pattern never worked and the market needed one more move before starting to sell off …
The “kiss of death” or “outside return” or “polarity” trendlines are present our about to be hit so we are at a VERY important point in the Transports … if they blow thru here w/ strength then we could be off to new highs.
If they smack into the orange trend lines and start stelling off then we have a 3rd wave starting/started and the next MAJOJR target is the highlighted green area … that’s a ways away, but that’s not that far away if we get rocking and rolling and overall liguidity goes night night …who knows?
Keep your head high and smile … it’s make a difference for everone!
Well, well, well … it’s fun when “stuff” comes together like this. Are we exploding to new highs or are we having the “mother of all bear market bounces” (for the record: I HAVE NO IDEA) over the past couple weeks?
Guess what?
Mr. Trust XLP/NYA has completed or is about to complete a “perfect” or “near perfect” (all that means is the ratios and projections are lining up – has nothing to do w/ the probability of it working or not – we NEVER know) BUY PATTERN.
So, now we just go to our trust “if – then” gameplan:
IF the BUY PATTERN HOLDS on the ratio THEN stocks should be reversing or reverse soon and continue DOWN….
IF the BUY PATTERN FAILS on the ration THEN stocks should continue to climb higher and take out the old all time highs as a real – distinct – possibility.
Think about it … this is NOT a political statement.
If you have received EVERY booster GREAT. That is your CHOICE.
If you have not taken any COVID vaccine then GREAT. That is your CHOICE. (kind of)
So, in the midst of the calamity that was 2007-2009 the market (S&P 500) stopped at 666. OMG the number of the beast, the OMEN, the blah blah. But, no doubt a pretty “big” number in regards to humanity and our condition existing in this 3D holographic GAME. But, even more crazy, is the relationship of geometry and the fact that, the ATH was a projection using the Euler number. Something embedded in the Vitruvian Man by Da Vinci thanks to your work Mr. Robert Edward Grant.
What’s funny is I had used the Euler number projections before Mr. Grant explained the unbelievable importance of this number to me … but, wow, w/ everything he is uncovering and discovering w/ regards to THE language of geometry and numbers, this is pretty darn amazing.
Additionally, in the chart below, where did the CRAZY correction that occurred during COVID go down to? Well, of course the “neutral” or “equality” point or, perhaps the balancing point between the male and female energies? The “geometry” or “measured move” of the price move AB=CD is where the correction went …
Seriously folks … the bread crumbs are EVERYWHERE.
Anyone ever look at the ATH in the LOONIE vs USD? High was 1.618
So, now, I think anyone who had a pulse during the past couple years would say that Pfizer (PFE) has played a MAJOR role in the COVID-19 “experience.”
Again, THIS IS NEUTRALITY FOLKS – your consciousness experience determines if PFE is on the GOOD or the OTHER scale.
All, I’m saying is the game – ONCE AGAIN – reveals itself. PFE topped at a PERFECT pattern completing … at 61.8
The TLT trade at 84 https://bartscharts.com/2023/10/13/tlt-october-13-2023/ coincided to the day w/ Uranus moving 84 degrees helio. From an astrological perspective, degrees of movements of Uranus are important for bonds/fixed income – or so I am told. 😉 The chart appears heavy and certainly thought it would close below and keep rolling but .. it lived, for now. honestly, not too bullish on it but what do I know. But, that started to change when I went and took a peak at the 10 year interest rate chart – $TNX.
The bonds are in a complete route … that being said, I’m trying hard to not look at the fundamentals because 1/ I don’t understand them and 2/ I’m just a simple pattern guy.
We have confluent technical indications that the bond route “should” be coming to an end, for now. I know there is no justification for this from all the talking head pundits … but I’m just looking at the chart.
A pretty clear Elliott Wave count showing we are in a 5th waves and it sure could be complete.
A weekly bearish divergence in the RSI from the last peak. Yes, it’s not a lot, but it has “not” exceeded the last peak.
Two 1.618 extensions and the most important one being from 5 years ago. They overlap almost exactly. The last one, well, that’s from the wave 3 high and, that one lies exactly on top of the first. NOTE – both of these highs we used the extension from topped in October …
Mr. Measured Move – blue arrow
Some other stuff
So, this is looking as the first “real” opportunity to stop this runaway train of rates … but, this train WILL GET GOING AGAIN as I’m counting this as the first wave completing/completed in a 5 wave sequence. (remember folks, wave 3 can’t be the shortest, so get ready. now that doesn’t mean it has to be long as wave 1, then it can’t be shorter than wave 5.) The characteristics of the 3rd wave usually mean that it will equal or exceed wave 1.
To put wave 1 in perspective from a percentage move it has just been a 1,483% rise in interest rates since the low. IT IS JUST GETTING STARTED.
If we blow thru this level – and, of course, why not – then it’s pretty conceivable that we could roll all the way up to the .382 from the 1981 high in interest rates. What do you know?
My good friend Jerry over at https://growmytsp.com/ sent me a chart over last night and, using basic measured moves, you can see the “rhythm” and moves of this index. Since the low in 2022, it’s been the same percentage move UP and same percentage move DOWN. (green lines = up and red lines = down)
We are at, or perhaps a little lower, pretty significant support …
why is this important .. I’m not gong to bore you w/ fundamental analysis about credit spreads and all that when a picture paints a thousand words …the picture below is saying “when I bottom, the S&P tops.”
On the daily chart below the JNK gapped down today and closed below (daily) the two trendlines we have monitoring. On the “good” and “other” scale this is an “other.”
That being said, the REAL trend line that is CRITICAL is the second chart … a daily close below that and we might have the nascent beginnings of a credit event on our hands …
Extremely important pattern appearing on the S&P 500 / ES tonight. As I was cruising the charts I noticed this SELL PATTERN on the cash S&P 500:
The reason this is so important is the most recent high is “supposed” to be the second wave / b-wave high and we “should” be going down … failing this pattern STILL gives weigh to the higher target shown and we have that BIG GAP to fill so it’s not a “sure thing” for the bulls but I live and die by the PATTERNS and this one is a nice one … if you see (not labeled) the 3 wave move to the recent high that we are shorting fits ‘nicely’ into a 2nd wave and, again, we “should” be going down in/around here and pretty much, now …
why now? let’s go to the ES
I like the “concept” of square outs as it’s pretty simple … price equals time. so xyz many points down converts to days and then you use calendar days (in this case) to project a future “square out” of price and time.
in this case, the market fell 283.75 points and, moving a decimal (trust me we can do that – go read or follow Mr. Robert Edward Grant – he’ll explain it. Too long to do here … anyway that becomes 28.3 calendar days and, from tomorrow 09/15/2023 if you go back that many days you get the low at 4350 on 08/18/2023. A “square out” takes place on the E-mini tomorrow and it’s up against a BIG resistance zone – sure looks like a short too me? Doesn’t it?
Well folks, here’s a VERY important level for the market. We are all pretty aware that “as Apple goes, so goes the market.” Now, of course, you have the FANG and all that but Apple is pretty important.
As I was taught by Larry P – in a bull market, it’s always wise to BUY the ABCD.
Guess what – we have a PERFECT BUY set up for AAPL. And, on a daily timeframe.
Pay attention to this level .. it sure looks like a 3 wave (green arrows) move to new highs (perhaps a “b” wave” ) and now we have a 5 wave decline starting that “then” must be bought. Or, is this a wave 4 to finish a 5 wave sequence up? Welcome to Elliott Wave. 🙂
From a pattern perspective, we have a “near perfect” BUY PATTERN on APPL approaching. I would “expect” some support and if this market is bullish then perhaps AAPL will take off?
I can tell you that if we fail to the downside and this level gives away w/out even a hinkering a fight then the entire market will be under significant pressure.
So, this is why I like the PATTERNS so much. I turn off the news as much as I can … yes, I saw some news somewhere about China and the I-phone and blah blah a day or so ago but I posted the “top of the circle” weeks ago .. no idea. Folks, prove it to yourself, the news breaks w/ the cycle.
So, WATCH THIS LEVEL ON AAPL CLOSELY … it’s a big deal.
Well, rates are spiking and bond prices are falling like a stone. Yup … and to think, folks, this is just wave one down. As discussed about a month ago, the target for this ending wave down is now around 110 is and then, still, the zone lower in the 98-103ish …Who knows, if you think about it.
IF my count is correct, THEN this will be a wave 2 in a bear market in bonds that could last years …and, if the recent wave 2 / b wave in the equities market is any barometer I believe this bounce will be BIG because the narrative of “inflation is under control” and the “fed is easing” and blah blah will come out and EVERYONE will think, that’s it and back we go to tinsel town. BONK.
Just counting … that ain’t gonna happen. Might we get some rate cuts in the upcoming bounce? Sure … Might rates naturally drift back down and blah blah blah blah – absolutely. Folks, it might seem that all is GREAT again.
But, it’s just wave 2 folks. Bonds have been going down for almost 3+ years … a 6 month to a year bounce – CERTAINLY in the cards.
So, I’m going to keep my TBT position ON as I’m going to ride all the waves (like UNG, cough cough – what the heck, why ain’t that thing moving …?) but I’ll be a BUYer of TLT for this bounce.
Why not? Nice bullish divergence on the weekly and monthly w/ some good targets. So, guess we’ll see.
NOTE: it’s getting pretty squirrelly out there … I’m pretty confident in these levels on the 30 year continuous chart. VERY in fact – one of them will stop this free fall. If they don’t, and the bonds fall right thru these levels – I’ll be shocked and awed. LOL … no kidding, the Bond market in a free fall is really an “other” on the good/other scale.
Well, we have a BUY PATTERN on JNK right around the “key” trend line … that’s been holding the Junk Bonds up for all of 2023 and the last quarter or so of 2022. It’s important .. doing “basic” trend line construction we can see the “minor” purple line will give us a heads up but I think Mr Red Trend line is the key … we lose that and I find it hard to get this market going higher for a while…but you never know, right?
One of my first teachers had an amazing saying and it’s one that has stuck w/ me for 15+ years. When your trading/investing – you might not realize it – but you truly are playing with giants. The amount of money flowing right now, not even while the NYSE is open is mind boggling. And here we sit, w/ our mouse at the ready and, basically, playing Cowboys and Indians as we click to enter here and then click to put the stop in … bang bang, you’re dead! LOLOLOL … man, wonder if the kids and even play that now? For those of you in the late 40’s to mid-50’s club – we had the LAST real childhood. Shoot, I STILL have my bigwheel scar on my knee. what a WRECK that was and one of my best friends, David R actually went UNDER a car as it was driving. Not a scratch … anyway, I digress.
So, I use PATTERNS to look for inflection points and then try and manage risk and put a position on …that’s my version of Cowboy’s and Indian’s …
But what Mr. Dinapoli said was “when you enter the markets you enter the world of huge gigantic gorilla’s … pause … and they are locked in a cage w/ you …pause…and they are carrying dynamite …pause …and they dynamite is LIT.
Below is my interpretation of Gorilla’s, in our cage (locked OBTW), carryingy lit dynamite:
And we can also make note that China is DUMPING our bonds and blah blah blah. This is the backdrop folks. Until we have a PATTERN (remember: work or fail) then this is all just conjecture … but the USD is on the verge of a breakout that could get it soaring. I can see why it stopped today and I would like a nice orderly pullback to get short some EURO but I really don’t know if that will come.
I don’t think one billionaire is reading this blog right now (if you are, we could use some donations for the next SUP Vet retreat if you’re out there) so it’s mostly just you and I (Joe Retail) playing Cowboy’s and Indian’s.
Either way … might be time to tighten stops, ask yourself how much you want to be drawn down in your 401K and make some adjustments.
IF my count is right … (remember, my Elliott abilities are like my golf game 😉 then we have started another move down in bond prices but I do believe this is the 5th and final wave of just the first wave down … that being said, w/ all of the “noise” and “sentiment” w/in the market about “inflation under contorl” and the “Fed is going to Ease” and “blah blah blah” I believe this is a countertrend opportunity which could bounce PRETTY BIG just based on sentiment, alone.
For now, I have the 82-85 region as the first target to end Wave 1 down … multiple confirming but non-correlated techniques are showing this to be a very important zone.
I am long TBT (inverse of TLT) and plan on keeping that position open but will also go LONG TLT and have both a long TLT and long TBT position open at the same time. I sense that TBT will be held for YEARS as interest rates are not done for the long term, at least in my VERY humbled opinion.
I like this zone because, a lot of times when the wave 3 is extended you will find wave 5 = wave 1. (FWIW wave 3 was exactly 3 times as long as wave 1 down)
AAPL smacked into the 1.27 which was also a 1.618 price projection level and has broken down. In face, it has left an island reversal. An island reversal on AAPL .. who the what the?
This is a VERY interesting chart as I do think 2022-2023 was a corrective 4 … but I just don’t think AAPL is done yet so believe this pullback needs to be bought in the coming months but, for now, let’s watch the measured move area around 145.
sounds crazy, but sure looks like bonds are going to break the big support that’s been holding em’ up and, frankly, target the blue zone as shown in the below charts. Ummmm, ouch. Right? If my count is wrong, then we will go up and do another leg to finish the a-b-c corrective move BUT either way, I feel pretty good w/ the count from the “big” top above perspective so we “should” be going down in bond prices regardless of the news and then we find some pretty big support and a BIG WAVE 2 or B Wave will get everyone thinking “inflation is over” and the rates are GOING DOWN and yeah team … but, that’s just gonna be the wave 2 or the B wave … after that is the “ouch” 3rd or C wave and rates are gonna explode …
Here’s the TLT (I AM LONG TBT) look that could, realistically, get targeted over the long term. I know, hard to believe … just calling it like I see it.
Saw the gap up today – pretty darn impressive – so I immediately went to the XLF and “figured” that it would have gapped up w/ everyone else and blew over the .786 retracement and off to the races. IT DID NOT. Hmmmmm
Because of that, I cruised around JNK, XLF, $BKX and KRE and saw a lot of TIME convergences and SELL PATTERNS completing ….add that to the amazingly insanely bullish sentiment out there and, well, is this is easy as it looks to get long, set it and forget it?
Not until the financials and Junk Bonds show strength and really rally …until then, I’ll hold my powder w/ regard to the broad equity indices.
WATCH THESE PATTERNS for a clue to what is next.
The banks/financials ALWAYS lead us UP and, also, lead us DOWN.
for the two charts above, note the TIME component of the ABCD “basic” projection …
below is the KBW Banking Index. Same picture but spent a little bit more “time” on the “time” aspect (get it, that was supposed to be funny) and noticed that, since, basically, last year the TIME component of pullbacks have been pretty consistent (see blue arrows) and, now we have an ABCD in price and time along w/ some other “basic” static cycles.
the other thing I want you to study is the “fractal” nature of these two patterns.
pretty key level for the Banks/Financials:
Junk Bonds have tried to break out 8 times from the .618 level. If they break down below the gap zone shown, this could be a big deal. Note the green horizontal lines – no swing low has been broken since Oct 2022. So …. keep an eye on the Junk Bonds
Well, we are hearing (once again) about the death of the dollar as the worlds reserve currency and all that … that will probably happen but not just yet.
Either way, we have hit a VERY important support level on the USD. Measured moves make the world go around … we hit the measured move, the long term polarity trend line and a butterfly buy. Exactly.
So, little bit of a judgment day for the US Dollar. I find it hard to “see” that the down more is over simply based on “balance, form and proportion” BUT this could be a MAJOR low in the USD. Go figure …
I’ll wait for the first BUY PATTERN to emerge and see how the dollar reacts to that …
For now, watch the downtrend line from the old high .. a breakout (daily close) above that trend line will be a good hint that probability is shifting to a big dollar low.
For now – the patterns worked – but I’m going to watch and see how this plays out.
I’m currently LONG the USDJPY via an ETF so a strong dollar doesn’t necessarily fit the USDJPY narrative I’m working w/ .. even though the USDJPY is only 14% of the USD Index (majority weighted in EURO) it still has more weighting that the USDCHF and the GBPUSD. So, this is an interesting one – for sure.
Staying w/ the preferred count shown in green. That being said, this could be, as shown on the alternate count the beginning of an a-b-c = Y move down … so, while this gives up a lot of the move, we’ll just use the EWT correction RULE that wave 4 cannot go below the end of wave 1. That level is around 220. As long as this correction (labeling it that right now) says above that 220ish level – then it is still game on and TSLA to new highs to finish a long term 5 wave sequence.
looks like this triangle will be resolving soon enough … prices like to “surge” out of these type of patters to …it will be pretty interesting, from a political perspective, to see which way it resolves.
spikes lower … Biden Administration has brought down inflation and lower gas prices.
spikes higher …the opposite for President Biden’s administration as gas prices spike higher in the 2nd half of his administration.
the ABCD target on NVDA has been hit on the monthly (it actually went higher and did the 12th root of 2 (1.05946) which is the ratio used to tune the equal octave scale of music) with noticeable bearish divergence on the 14 period RSI. I expect some serious resistance. If we blow thru it, then this stock can run. I will update some of the higher targets later if we below thru this level.
additionally, we can see a 3 drives to a top on the daily.
“mind the gap” – huge gap support, as shown, lower.
Well folks, we are at a pretty big fork in the road. The SELL PATTERN on the SPX is “close” and pretty much hit and then the XLF went up and tagged the lower end of the sell zone … gapped up and then closed at the lower end. One can see a couple small laborious machinations up and down before the SPX target is hit so we can sneak into the upper half of the sell zone before really calling the PATTERN complete and the selling to begin – or not.
If this pattern fails, it might to be early to back up the truck, but the melt up will certainly continue …
But, don’t get too excited for that to happen. SOME STIFF RESISTANCE/SELL PATTERNS PRESENT in XLF aka FINANCIALS.
VERY important level approaching in/around 4500 and hen 4525-4550. Frankly, these levels are the last gasp hope for the bears.
Note, the time worked out very nicely but the PRICE was not hit and we’ve held support. Doesn’t look to inconceivable that the targets above won’t get attacked in the coming days?
Birthday today .. so spent some time listening to Zen music and just using the crayons.
One purple (crown chakra) line that defines a radius of a circle and then … every turning point thereafter.
Yes, it’s “past tense” but we can use this forward … I try (as you all know) to make my charts “present” or “near real time” and not in the past but for this drill I was just enjoying the geometry …
work w/ me …
cheers – B
Here’s Metatron’s Cube and the DJIA … go follow Mr. Robert Edward Grant. He’s doing amazingly powerful work around the geometry and ratio’s that we use w/ the patterns …I just printed out the DJIA w/ the purple radius and then free handed and used a compass. It might be off a little bit BUT you get the picture … Metatron’s cube, in historical spiritual texts, is responsible for ALL of creation in this 3rd dimension. So, why wouldn’t it work w/ the stock market … right? 😉
Well, this is one of those that you wait, in this case almost 9 months, for the pattern to appear. I almost tried it at the ABCD but something just told me to wait. Now, we have a 1.618 price projection right on top of the lovely .786 and a bunch of other ratios.
Why is this a big deal? Because the top up at 151 was a major top. Thus … for us Fx Junkies, we need to short USD vs JPY at 146-147 and if I’m right this is going to be one heck of a ride down.
I’m a tad perplexed on this chart as one can make the case for some bullish action BUT I’m not even to try and count the different machinations and I don’t want to “could have would have should have” when it comes to my wave counts …
I’m picking lower simply because of the last time it did the same measured move .. it corrected about down to the blue box. That’s my kind of investing – as many of you know – I WAIT and STALK a chart for a long time before entering. So .. seems reasonable to me.
Obviously, out black neckline of the H+S present is “crucial” for the bulls as I don’t want to see a weekly close below that line or – that opens up the first target of 64-67.
From there I see the blue zone as MAJOR support and a BUY if you can wait that long …
I posted the chart below a little while back … it’s a chart of the ten year interest rates and what I’m trying to show is that, yes, banks and a lot of people got caught w/ the rising interest rates.
Folks, it took 40 years to rise the 700 ish % .. we’ve done it in 3 and we are not done. I’m counting this as wave 5 of 1 or A. So, in the short-medium term expect interest rates to continue rising. Then of course we will get wave 2 or B and everyone will think the Fed is done tightening and that’s when the real smash will occur – a C wave or wave 3 higher? What if this is a new “bull market” in rates…? Wave 3 can’t be the smallest SO … interest rates are rising folks. Ugh.
Just like the last post on the Banks ( https://bartscharts.com/2023/07/01/xlf-financials-july-01-2023/ ) the NYSE Index – an index composed of all the stocks traded on the NYSE (~5000 securities) – is tipping it’s hand and showing a VERY important SELL PATTERN.
In this case, we have ABCD in PRICE and TIME.
If this market is bearish, this sell pattern will work …
If this market is bullish, this sell pattern will fail and the band will play on …
The PRICE AND TIME aspect of this PATTERN make this one VERY important …
Trust that everyone enjoys the long weekend enjoying the Birth of our Republic.
Question, when is the last time you hear a politician refer to the United States as a Constitutional Republic?
I pledge allegiance to the flag of the United States of America and to the _______ Republic or Democracy for which it stands? We know the answer …
Anyhoo … enjoy the weekend and the amazing country that we live. Be safe out there!
Financials .. the banks lead us UP and the lead us DOWN.
I really have not idea where we are as in a BULL or BEAR market. I am probably the last dude out there thinking we have another wave down coming. I think that for one reason: the Leading Diagonal pattern. The low in October 2022 was either a 1 or an A. If it was an A, then the B wave could go up and make new highs and then a smashing C wave. Else, we are going up in a wave 2 …
How can we figure out where we are going? New highs or another move lower …?
I like to use a PATTERN THAT FAILS or a PATTERN THAT WORKS and here we are .. a VERY NICE GARTLEY SELL PATTERN ON THE BANKS.
IF IT HOLDS AND WORKS AND THE BANKS START DOWN THEN … I suspect a move down will be coming.
IF IT FAILS AND THE BANKS CONTINUE TO GO UP then I think this will add fuel to the upward move.
34-35.66 on the XLF.
One last, note the measured moves …almost all of them (red arrows) are exact. Those that went a little higher were harmonic w/ 1.27 and 1.618 of the measured move.
Was over on the Top Gun options group chat working some NVDA charting and I decided to pull out some ratio analysis on the XLP and NVDA.
XLP/NVDA
Some stuff we need to consider:
Note the red trend line connecting the lows .. it’s a perfect fit. Certainly suggests the “ratio” is about to rise which means, in the past, some heavy weight for the NASDAQ and I imagine the overall market. Hmmmm …
Overlaid on top of the ratio (blue line) is the NASDAQ composite … take a peak at how it reacted when the ratio rose … except for one time during the 2010-2012 timeframe, it rose and so did the market. That’s pretty much it … of late, it’s “timed” the NASDAQ pretty well.
When we add up the 20 year trend line support that sure looks like it wants to hold and the ratio starts rising – the NASDAQ hasn’t necessarily been bullish during these times now, has it?
Spent some time on JNK today/tonight and tried some square outs in both calendar days and planets and blah blah blah. Even pulled out the Pythagorean ABC^2. To no avail .. then, I thought I’m “curve fitting it” so I just started to do some geometry.
I’ve been sketching before I meditate based on Robert Edward Grants recommendation .. it’s pretty trippy. As you square the circle and then step back and throw some flower of life on top and then, what the heck, throw Metatrons Cube into the mix and … well … you start to see creation in an amazingly beautiful way. The perfect – form, balance and proportion.
So, using the dark blue arrow and the orange arrow near the bottom – that’s it – we were able to create a time cycle … that was from the Vesica Pisces. Then, we were able to create the “past trend channel.” I didn’t work from left to right .. I went from the Orange Radius, the Orange Circle and then created the first triangle that is too the far right. And, that’s when the trend lines/boxes were created working back up right to left. And, I’ll be darn … it WAS THE TREND CHANNEL and just follow the market in the trendlines that were created from simple squares … amazing.
Why is this important?
As I’ve blogged before – we can make a comparison to JNK BONDS GOING UP UP UP to “risk on” and JNK BONDS GOING DOWN TO “risk off” and the risk is minimized by the institutions. I monitor them … they are very important.
So, here’s the daily (artistry removed 🙂 )
it’s showing a pretty important set of trend lines …for sure. but, as I state on the chart, which way is it going to blow?
now, interestingly, take a peak of JNK w/ the S&P 500 overlaid on top of it:
not immediately obvious .. but if you look at times when junk bonds were toppingyou would see some resistance or bumps and the market could continue higher, the junk bonds would kind of stall and shuck and jive BUT when they sold off, the market was soon thereafter.
So … what I don’t like is that the JNK bonds have not rallied like the others times and, in fact, “most” of the time, when they rallied there was a big monthly “spike” or “wick” from a candlestick perspective. Seriously, I think this is an important point. If we take at look at the first low on the chart to the far left you will see multiple monthly candles leaving a wick/spike before pretty strong rallies .. now just work left to right as we see the monthly wicks that resulted in a rally for the Junk Bonds .. allowing the market to relentlessly drive higher. But, this time … just saying .. where is the wick? where is the rally? if we take a look at how ALL the rallies started you will see the wick present and the subsequent rally. Not this time.
Certainly looks like JNK BONDS should get going pretty quickly to keep the party rolling. Else, we break that daily neckline I think it’s going to hard pressed to be long equities.
So, just keep watching that daily trendline convergence on JNK bond if you want an “outside the squawk box” objective look at the health of the market.
PS – Technical Analysis 101. This chart has lower highs and until this last “bounce” it had lower lows since 2010.
PUNCH LINE: does the S&P 500 have enough gas in its tank to explode higher and bring it’s pal, the JNK BONDS, with em’? Or, do they both look like it’s been a great run and they are just going to roll over and go blehhhhhh ….
Been holding onto these AAPL charts for a while until they approached the level. This certainly looks like a freight train for higher BUT you know, nothing like the top of a circle to pause / stop it in its tracks.
I will not be shorting AAPL at this level but will find it interesting to see if this stops this freight train. If/when it blows thru the top of the circle, the 1.27 extensions looms …
Some fun waves this AM … that’s really all that is important. 🙂
Finished – somewhat – moving into the new rental out here in San Diego. (I REFUSE TO BUY OUT HERE) … little bit brain dead but “something” told me to take a look at crude oil futures and that bizarre low of -40 bucks. Could that low be harmonic?
Of course not .. well, shoot, it was:
So .. what the heck are we looking at:
Crude Oil Monthly – LOG (key, these are percentage moves) since 1984. Couldn’t get anymore data that that.
The 1.3348 is a ratio (Perfect 4th) for the equal octave scale of music.
1.3348AB = CD and the extension from the “old” all time low was, yes, 1.3348.
A good technique to use is to look at the last MAJOR retracement and see what that number was … in this case .749. TILT … well take 1/1.3348 and we get .749. The market did, in fact, give us a clue. Pretty wild …
The dashed blue move down? .786 the blue measured move …
The move up to the old all time high? 1.1892 which is the ratio for the “minor 3rd”
Last, and this was the “kicker” for me … using the open/close after the negative spike low … the high at 130 was exactly equal to that measured move. Nice …
Anyway, just bored so thought I would cruise the charts.
As we have discussed on this blog – I don’t track nor do I know ANYTHING about the fundamentals driving the EV market. I probably should as I have my hands in a “data norming” technology that is using Unreal Engine 5 to create the “EV Metaverse” but, other than I really don’t.
That being said – the thesis – TSLA IS GOING TO NEW HIGHS remains intact.
What will stop it .. MAJOR RESISTANCE 257-268.
Other than that .. IF (the big IF) TSLA respects that level and pulls back THEN we need to think of adding and getting long.
I continue to pick up The 32nd Jewel by Connie Brown. I dust it off and continue down the rabbit hole. What has been happening of late is I’ll get about 10 pages (no kidding) into a section and then something pops up in the writing and … down the rabbit hole I go, again. Most recently it has been helping, a lot, to follow Mr. Robert Edward Grant. He might not know it – OK, high probability he doesn’t – but his information has (amazingly ;)) been perfect for when I get “stuck” in The 32ndJewel.
Today, I was going BACK to the subject of “Lattice Diagrams” and came across the “leading and lagging” market chapter. It’s a wonderful chapter to dust off the basics and look at something that you haven’t researched or analyzed in a while.
What drew my attention was the discussion about China and the Shanghai Composite. In a nutshell, China is a “leader” w/in the global financial trends. It’s not hard to imagine that Australia, India and South Africa all depend on China.
Additionally, if you have been following this blog for a while, you can see/understand the Canadian and Australia correlation. Then, it’s known (not going to say widely) that the TSX (Canada) leads the S&P.
So what is China doing?
Well, on page 36 of The 32nd Jewel she gives a count that shows the Shanghai in a bearish “C” wave which portends to lower Shanghai which means the dominoes fall to the bears …folks, trust me here, you want Ms. Brown counting waves … she is, without a doubt one of the best in the world. So, took her count and I’ve added the 2. I’m staying away from a large multi year triangle thesis, for now. However, if we do break ABOVE 3750 BEFORE breaking below the trendline and the .786 it’s game on for the bulls.
For now, this is the count that appears to be the highest probability.
KEEP AN EYE ON THE SHANGHAI .. then, of course, the All Ordinaries (Australia), the Canadian TSX, the German DAX and the S&P500.
Took a peek at NVDA tonight and what came to my eye was the “look” of the “last” big move into a high from a measured move perspective and, yup, there it was – almost exactly equal to the length of the last move.
Honestly, I saw that but was “head faked” by the gigantic candle that brought us here so I used the all time low for the ABCD projection that is a little higher. But, tonight, it was the “shooting star” like nature of the candle that caught my eye. So, there it was and I, sorry folks, but I blew it. I did have the 1.27 extension on the chart and that “can” or “should” provide some resistance but, like anything, the level takes on more significance when you have a projection into that extension level. So, take that for what it’s worth.
Now, my “feel” is that we hit some resistance and perhaps a pullback and then up into the larger ABCD. That scenario, for now, would workout if that old trend line that got blown thru holds as support and NVDA bounces and goes up up up … this thesis is thawing and getting really cold if we get a weekly close below that old trend line.
I have a long term monthly count in my head that has a pullback/pause coming and then continuing higher. Yes, I think this is going higher. However, need it to get thru two things first:
Trend Line: note the long term log trend line from the first high 20 years ago the last major high (both regions denoted by the blue arrows) caused a pullback to occur … this trend line “should” at least offer some resistance. We blow thru it and this thing is in Zone 5 afterburner.
Right near the projected trend line resistance is the ABCD from the low down at .37 cents. The 1.27 extension “should” provide “some” resistance. The target for now: 444-454.
NO I’m not advocating a short here unless you have HUGE “fill in the blank” – I’m seeking an area of resistance that will enable a pause/pullback so I can manage risk and not try to get into a run away market something I have proven – again and again – to not be good at and, in fact, where a majority of my losses have come from. Trust me, I’ve had my fair share – BIG TIME. Maybe you have, will or won’t (it can be the “won’t” …usually isn’t but why not?) suffer losses but for me – I lose money trying to chase. PERIOD. So, I’ll see a level to try and get in IF a pullback ever occurs. For now … watch that 444-454 area.
Also, I expected the volume to be much higher or even spiking but, with this much thrust, this high, the volume is normal to a tad bit latent. Hmmmm …coupled w/ the RSI isn’t overbought or showing any divergences. I think this thing has some legs but, again, I’m watching this rocket ship from my TV or staring up in the sky.
For those who have an e-ticket on this one .. hope these targets / resistance areas will help you manage risk.
Speaking of losses … we had a saying when I used to fly w/ my trusty (loved everyone of them OBTW) pilots … when it comes to gear down landings, there are those who WILL and those who HAVE. NEVER those who WON’T.
It’s OK to lose money …it sucks, I know, but it’s part of the game.
Well, folks, the SELL PATTERN on JPM has worked so far and…that’s not good folks. I REALLY DO NOT care what your political affiliation is …in my simple mind you are a HUMAN and I AM connected to YOU.
So … this is a hard post. We are on the verge of a really important moment … and, frankly, I’m just going to say it on this blog:
KEEPING THE POLITICS OUT OF IT:
If JPM BUY PATTERN works – up up an way. The “metaverse” of the “real” world just continues to weave into Idiocracy.
IF JPM BUY PATTERN FAILS – it’s time folks. Stock up on REAL TANGIBLE ITEMS and be a good HUMAN …
Take a look at USO below … certainly looks like 5 waves down and , every wave was symmetrical and the EXACT same percentage move. Pretty crazy .. that’s why I love LOG charts folks.
W/ the 5 waves down complete and the pretty big move afterward would look to be a BUYer w/ a nice pullback lower on USO. Could be a nice long run higher on this one …
This is a long term monthly count from JPM that stretches back 50+ years.
Folks, certainly doesn’t “feel” like a 5 wave move in JPM is complete but the count doesn’t break any rules so … 5 waves complete?
Here’s the daily chart below – calling attention to the island reversals and the island reversals that could be at play – right now. Here’s the last post on it: https://bartscharts.com/2023/05/04/jpm-may-04-2023/
Well the count will either be correct or it won’t (yea I know, dugh) but .. here’s the 60 minute GART SELL PATTERN that hit so IF this pattern works THEN JPM should start back down which will put pressure on all the banks. IF this PATTERN FAILS then expect the daily .618 and .786 above to get attacked and, potentially send JPM off to new highs.
But, for now, pay attention the SELL PATTERN present on JPM:
If your a technician, you can’t help but notice the very long (month ish) consolidation occurring in the bond market.
Today’s price action appears to want and break the support that has been around since March 15th. As you can see above, we do some ‘basic’ projections and right when the neckline breaks there is minor support (blue projection arrows) and then the BIG support w/ the blue rectangle present. A lot of math coming into that level. I believe that is the crucial level.
As you can see from the weekly chart above, the “time” of the corrections have been pretty symmetrical so from a timing perspective certainly looks like this “bounce” has run it’s course for one more leg down.
From the ATH, it’s a pretty clear count and I’m labeling this as a 4 completing/completed and another leg down (rates go UP in this case) into the .618 from the 1981 low (40+ years ago) in bond prices. Note the blue measured move above .. that was the largest correction in 40+ years. We take harmonics from that and you can see the square root of 3 harmonic nailed the low precisely. We have a .618 retrace, 1.618 extension, trend line coming from the low in 1981 and a harmonic of the largest prior correction.
That level is a good level to BUY – if we get down there.
Supposedly … who knows what is true these days .. 1000’s of banks are underwater. OK … whatever.
Here’s when we look at the CHART and we ask should we BUY or SELL or DO NOTHING.
KRE sliced thru the first “potential support” and now we approach, what I think, is the KEY to the KRE. Here’s why:
58.76 – if you look at the purple measured moves you will see that EVERY major swing down has been 58.76%. I’ve used the “close” in 2008 as I’m not sure if that is a good print or not .. either way, that measured move nails EVERY LOW
1.618 projection lands … right at the 58.76 correction.
.707 (square root of 2 = 1.4142 and 1/1.4142 = .707) just a little above this level
Long term LOG trend line right at .. all the above
Note the VOLUME – is that a capitulation spike in selling volume?
RSI sitting at the crucial support level for the ENTIRE bullish move since 2009
Nobody in their right mind is looking to BUY the banks but, then again, I can guarantee you NOBODY was looking to buy in March 2009. Maybe there was someone? Perhaps … me?
DATE STAMPED 3 MR 2009. (March 3, 2009)
Here’s why:
So … watch the THRUST coming into this level, maybe wait for a signal reversal candle (bullish).
What I can say is IF we blast thru this level (certainly “feels” like we should) then, yeah, a lot of banks are looking at some tough times and 28 and then 21 are the next targets.
HUGE support from 62-77 … the .618 is from the all time low, we have the long term trend line from 50+ years ago and the “next” measured move correction (dashed red arrow – remember this is log scale), also take note of the two ABCD projections (orange and yellow) smacking into the 3.142 (PI) projection, square root of 2 (1.4142) extension and the square root of 1.618 (1.27) extension.
75-78 is pretty important …
Last, a GUIDELINE and NOT a rule is that corrections like to target the “4th wave of a lesser degree” and you can see that comes right in where .. yup, our target zone.
So, from a balance, form and proportion this correction doesn’t look done or over BUT that zone should be some nice support.
NOTE: looking at it on a monthly, looks like we might have a three drives to a bottom setting up …
The EURO is smacking against some SERIOUS trendline resistance that goes back to 2000 and 1985 (synthetically).
Remember, the Euro wasn’t adopted until January 1, 1999. So, the grey box below is the “synthetic” version of the EURO w/ the Deutschmark and other currencies providing a “continuation” into the time frame of Bretton Woods.
Either way, pay attention to the “orange measured moves” as that looks to be a pretty good “beat” for price action. IF the EURO blows thru these trendlines then the next target certainly looks to be 1.15.
On the podcast “Trendlines over Headlines” I discussed how measured moves can also be used as time components. Took a few seconds to show this concept by taking the Orange and Blue measured moves and flipped them to horizontal to create the time component of the measured moves.
Folks … look at the chart below. From the 2000 low, you can see that the “measured move in time” was pretty accurate. Now, mind you, this is a MONTHLY chart so we have some “time” for the cycle to hit. But, you can get it down to the day and the hour. Something I’m working on … not quite there, yet. But, I just “like” the measured moves ….use them.
PRICE = TIME. They are the same thing on a chart …
Here’s the creation of the Vesica Pisces for the EURO. For no other reason than to test it out, I’m going to use that first synthetic drop as the “seed”
Now, mind you, this isn’t something that you can really invest/trade off of but, for me at least, it’s a good exercise every now and then. 🙂
the Vesica Pisces is the manifestation for the creation of life and is where the numerical equivalents of the square roots of 1-5 come from … it’s inherently nested in Metatrons cube (Archangel Metatron is – according to legend – responsible for the geometry of creation. Mr. Robert Edward Grant has done AMAZING work showing how this happens and has recently PROVEN that the 3 pyramids were actually constructed at the same time w/ Metatrons cube in mind .. it’s amazing.
Anyway, the market vibrates and is harmonic and abides by natural law. Just like everything … our job is to find that “beat” and “vibration” and then give it a whirl. One last, note, you can move the vectors horizontal to show the TIME component. I would do that but .. need to go do some “work.”
Cheers and make it a great day.
Every PRICE move .. based on the Vesica Pisces. Believe it … or not.
The thesis on the Transports is the ATH is a “BIG TOP.” Thus far, we haven’t really broken down that hard so only TIME will tell.
We like when .382 / .618 retracements are on top of each other and we have that a little lower in the high 10K’s and low 11k’s. This a HUGE target zone for the Transports. IF they slice thru that level then they “should” go down to the ABCD level and then attack the 50 year old trend line .. we break those levels and the corrective drop target (likes to target the previous wave 4 of a lesser degree – guideline NOT a rule) into 2K is certainly a reality. I’m blogging about this now because I have no earthly idea what would cause such a thump .. let’ face it, that’s pretty much a breakdown of the transportation sector, probably globally.
I’m going to stick w/ this count, more than likely getting proven wrong – certainly hope so …
from a technical perspective pay attention to:
obviously, the count …
the orange trend line (log) from the monthly, weekly – it appears that is what is holding it up
the “nested” head and shoulders .. breaking the neckline AND the orange log trend line should start this lower
.382 from the 90 year low 0f 13.43 is 11,277
the BUY pattern is down around 8986-9396 –
net, net we have two very important zones of support and then the looming trendline from 50 years ago.
hope, being a strategy, this analysis is COMPLETELY WRONG
Pay attention to this PATTERN on JPM daily. The past 3 major tops have gapped down and the last two have created island reversals. IF (the BIG IF) we gap down today and leave and “island” then this could be very troubling for the banks and, historically, has led to a pretty big down move in JPM.
No idea if that will happen in the coming days but, again, the TIME is perfect in it’s relation to the the all time high PATTERN and the price is off just a wee bit .. essentially we have the same exact same set up as the high .. now, TIME will tell.
on a monthly level, the “blue measured move” certainly looks to be harmonic w/ JPM. the most recent high in/around mid 140’s was exactly equal to the blue measured move … again, keep an eye on JPM as it’s appears to be the big dog helping out the troubling regional and smaller banks.
If (again the BIG IF) we gap down in JPM to create an island then this big dog could be signaling a much bigger credit crunch on the way.
Basically, it’s the rate that banks charge each other to move a “shi&t ton” of money around overnight. It’s HUGELY important .. in fact, Mr. Martin Armstrong picked up some LIBOR issues around August before COVID and it was fascinating to watch this play out – these banks are truly the gorillas juggling dynamite in the cage we jump into trading the financial markets. Oh, forgot to mention, the dynamite is lit!
I just decided to play around w/ the LIBOR chart and just started counting … now, as many of you know, my EWT counting is truly like my golf game. Sometimes, smacking it right down the middles and other times, the ball is simply no where to be seen or found. My swing (and counting) can get that bad … also, just like when you ask someone their score and they look back and start counting w/ their finger you know they are giving you a “fake news” score! So, if I get a sub wave of a sub wave of a sub wave into the counting then I’m probably just making it up. With all that being said, I really just try not to break any rules and get on the side of the MAIN wave. I LOOK for corrective patterns as they are the most reliable way to enter into a position. When we have a PATTERN and an EWT count that fits then probability does become quite high. But, you simply never know …
NO rules are broken below … sure looks like the LIBOR RATE has/is bottoming and that means, eventually, the rate the banks charge each other is going to get a LOT more expensive … could be tomorrow, could be years from you but I think this is showing a pretty clear 5 waves down so the next “trending” move is going to be: UP.
hard to believe that I derived the targets shown above below in January. pretty crazy.
what was important about today was AMZN performed a calendar day square out. in the world we live in (i.e. if your reading this blog) PRICE and TIME are the SAME THING. PRICE=TIME and TIME=PRICE. So, a PRICE of $50 dollars will spin off TIME cycles of 50 minutes, hours, weeks, days, etc. etc.
the famous WD Gann said you can square out a HIGH, LOW or a RANGE. In this case, the RANGE from the ATH to the most recent January low was 108 points. We take 108 points (note – you can move planets helio or geo based on this square out and you might want to try it … 😉 and convert that to 108 calendar days. that was today …. from the low on January 09, 2023 we add 109 calendar days and that day was today.
My issue (we all have them) is I found the square out but the pattern was SO FAR AWAY that I was a little confused. WE LIKE TO SEE SQUARE OUTS IN TIME WITH CORRESPODING BUY OR SELL PATTERNS…. so what to do.
Well, well, well … today was an earnings call for AMZN (had no idea) and guess what after hours it went up and tagged the pattern on the day of the square out.
GO FIGURE … no idea what the earnings were or weren’t.
All eyes remain on the USD. we have a large target looming a little lower.
That being said, we are approaching a very critical time from a cyclic perspective. We have also completed a “valid” SELL pattern on the SPX. So, we either start down early this week or we blast thru the pattern higher into more targets.
Either way, I DO NOT think that the market is done going down. We have more waves lower … the timing will be dependent on the US DOLLAR and the PATTERNS present.
Well, the BUY PATTERN shown in the last update hit, went thru it a bit, and then started back up. If you look on this two hour chart, you can see that 5 waves up are complete from the low at (2) so, IF that (2) is correct, then expect 173-174 to hold and TSLA continues on in a 5th wave. Yes, know this sounds crazy but calling it like I see it, for now.
If we lose that lower 173-174 level then I’ll seek the “daily gap zone” as the next level to get LONG TSLA. Lot’s of math in that area …
So, either way, believe there isn’t any evidence, yet, that TSLA will continue it’s march higher either from a little lower or at the “green daily gap zone”
Lot’s of fundamental information out there about China and sanctions and blah blah. Something about semi-conductors and blah blah.
So, took a peak at the PHLX Semiconductor Index and it smashed into a pretty nice SHORT PATTERN ZONE (abcd, 4 ratios, gap (small), other stuff) and, just doing some back of the envelope math, if you take the square root of the high and round up you get 64 and, guess what, 64 weeks ago was the top on January 04, 2022.
All this means is the PATTERN is complete/completing. IF/WHEN (?) we blow thru this level to the upside, then it’s a failed pattern and the SOX should run to the .786 ish and the “red crossover” a little higher and then to new highs.
Well, the pain cave continues as I’m keeping my position and searching for a “low” in UNG. I’ve updated the count because recent price action has gone below the low made in 2021 (UNG) but, as you can see, the futures has not broken below the low. UNG and the futures “try” to go in concert but, as you can tell, they aren’t a “perfect” one for one match.
Man, to think I was holding this puppy up at 34 and ‘expecting’ a pullback … a complete wipeout, and now a losing position to boot? This is an example of horrible investing. Period. But, I’m sticking with it as I do see a low approaching or here.
I LIKE the MONTHLY MEASURED MOVE PATTERN THAT IS SHOWN BELOW. ITS A PERFECT MATCH IN PRICE AND TIME. But, that doesn’t mean it won’t fail, of course, but these MONTHLY MEASURED MOVES don’t usually fail. In fact, I’ve really never seen it happen. No kidding.
The UNG chart shows another (my counting is like my golf game, remember?) valid count and we are completely a “b” wave that broke the low but it “should” be bottoming here or nowish … there’s a subwave count I’m watching which I will update depending on what happens over the coming days/weeks. But, either way, the next major move “should” be UP for UNG.
We are tickling the 1.05946AB=CD and the 1.732 extension from ‘a’ (purple) … basically an ABCD into a 1.618/1.732 extension SHOULD provide support for the next move up .. BUT, it doesn’t have to.
Some extremely important “polarity” principles are being tested w/ the EUR.USD currency pair.
The principle is that “former support” will become resistance or vice versa. In his case, we have the low from 1985 and the low from 2000 showing former support that, now, SHOULD be stiff resistance.
If we power thru this level then the .618 retracement (note measured move orange arrow) looms as the next big resistance level.
Michael Jenkins taught me how to look for Mirror Image Foldbacks. (www.stockcyclesforecast.com) – he also showed me how they are planetary in nature … essentially, whatever planet or pair (s) of planets came together at the folkback point, they will also move “out” from that point causing the same pattern to appears as a “mirror image”.
This one is pretty nice in form and time. Note the TIME component from the “foldback point” hit today and is equal. Additionally, take a peak at the “form” of the moves from the foldback point .. yup, fractals of each other.
So, go long SQQQ and wouldn’t hold it too much below the blue line as the time component on this one looks almost perfect so my “thinking” (don’t think it hurts the team Bart” is we will know pretty soon. Oh, additionally, foldbacks like this fail when/where. MOST of the time, at the foldback point. So … it will work in/around here OR not.
Lot’s of volume in this security … interesting to see the volume go up and down ….
Folks … can’t objectively say what “it” is but something is afoot at the circle K …
Whatever it is or isn’t we do have a pretty good line in the sand.
The chart above is “log scale” … take a look at:
Measured move PERCENTAGE CORRECTION (red arrow)
Percentage ABCD (blue arrows)
Trend line
Multiple ratios …
Let’s call that level our line in sand. If we take the chart and make it “normal” scaling that level is important and maybe a little lower. Watch that .786 retracement level!
Today, monitor and watch – CLOSELY the BUY PATTERN on the US Dollar Index. That level is in/around 102.50-102.70. As you can see below, I have INVERTED the NYSE Index to give a flavor for the pivots in the equities and how they correspond to the US Dollar.
From the perspective of the S&P 500, let’s see what happens at the opening … if we take out the 3956 handle then moves to the upper two targets shown below are realistic …
I am using UNG as a proxy for Natural Gas futures.
Here’s the picture on Nat Gas (hourly) continuous futures:
As you can see, we are about to hit or have hit some very important support. An ABCD, 1.27 extension and the .786. We are still “well above” the very important cycle low we ID’d above. From the futures perspective, my thesis still stands that we are, potentially, at a VERY major low for Natural Gas for years to come.
That picture is a little bit more murkier when we look at UNG:
It would be nice to keep UNG above 7.00 … the KEY to this entire pattern is the Natural Gas Futures. Remember, we are looking at a near perfect MONTHLY pattern that has been exact in PRICE and TIME.
And, as I have said, multiple times in the blogs above – the thesis is wrong or on thing ice w/ a WEEKLY close below the lows.
Perspective … we made a higher low today. Let’ that sink in …
Now, my stance is to remain bearish and I do believe we are in the very early stages of a smashing wave 3 and, add fuel to the fire, it’s a “3rd of a 3rd” wave down. Wonderful …
Near term, the market DID NOT go up to our target up around 3956 but it did smack right into the trendline giving us the polarity principle.
Two scenarios:
Bounce not complete and we gap up and above or move strongly into and thru the gap shown and finish the a-b-c sequence
We did a “minor” wave 1 down and finished a “minor” wave 2 and down we go … wouldn’t be surprised to see if it closes the gap tomorrow on the open and then down …
As expected we are rallying after completing 5 waves. If you take a peak at the (2) around 4077 that is the beginning of the wave that we are retracing. Take note, we could go all the way up to that level and still fail and the count would be valid.
Also, take note that this is only a 15 minute chart .. I’m down on a lower timeframe because I feel confident in the “big 2” at 4196 is a correct label so I’m “down in the weeds” trying to ascertain where this bounce will stall and then start back down.
My bias remains bearish and I see this as a short term bounce that needs to be shorted.
First level to take a crack at it is 3957:
ABCD – dashed red arrows
ABCD slams right into “measured move” (red triangle)
So here’s the deal folks, I had NO IDEA that there was a banking crisis brewing when I put the GART SELL on the banks – it’s just a pattern. And, guess what, I’m trying NOT to pay attention to the ongoing machinations of the Federal Reserve, or some Twitter expert, or my buddy. I’m just looking at the CHART. In that PRICE and TIME we have the ENTIRE STORY UNFOLDING WITHOUT BIAS AND, FRANKLY, WITHOUT A CARE.
Every emotion, every thought, every decision, every hope and every dream is shown in the candle. Period. Dot. End of sentence.
The update above found a rather important support zone. Important, as my long time readers will understand, means a LOT of math comes together and its “logical” that a bounce or support is found. Cough Cough … sliced thru it without a care.
As we used to talk about flying fighters … (man I miss those days sometimes) .. the “goods” and the “others” so in the realm of that – when we slice thru that important of a support zone. I’ll use what I used back when I started this bank blog (unknowingly in the midst of one of the biggest banking failures ever) – something ain’t right at the circle K.
At this time, I AM NOT advocating to BUY the BANKS. I’m just looking for support as this things falls out of the sky.
From the last post, you can see that we have taken out the “largest measured move” correction (the 2020 COVID scare) since 2009. I’ve updated the TIME and PRICE of the largest correction on the chart during 2007-2009. The price is 45.90 and the TIME is out to early next year. (just putting the last one in perspective).
Tomorrow, 78.26 is important (1.618 extension) but it sure looks like it wants to get down to the high 60’s or the abcd around 60.
Of course we will have machinations up and down but … that’s some serious liquidation folks.
That gap down was a bummer … but, we have found support and bounced nicely. As you can see above, any move higher will run into the wall of China above (big gap) and probably fail the first or second time. But, obviously, we want it to close up and above that entire area so that is the immediate resistance.
The “ideal” PATTERN we would like is the a-b-c EWT corrective sequence that will set up a GART BUY.
You know I don’t like to do the “could have would have should have” but there is some nice little coloring techniques/tricks in the chart above so let’s take a peak.
First thing is to note the ABCD (blue arrows) into the low .. then, we have both a .707 and .786 retracement level with a 1.618 extension. I also (which I like to do, alot) extended off the last low before the march to the high and that was a nice ratio from the equal octave scale of music : 1.3348. Then, one last, take note of the “gap area” because that defined the measured moves into the low. No kidding … then, those orange measured moves set up what? A three drives to a bottom BUY pattern. (blue triangles).
The support/rally that was found today by the market was “expected” as we could see 5 waves down.
Now the BIG question is was the high today the end of the wave 2 or do we rally once more. I would like to see another rally so we can PROJECT the upcoming POTENTIAL inflection point.
Note, the 2 arrows show IMPORTANT support of the emini if the pattern fails.
Expect a rally the next couple days …perhaps a slight gap down but eventually support and then a rally should occur. Futures tonight are already providing that “commentary” so I’d expect a larger than “normal” rally due to the world is coming unglued (it is) but you know what I’m saying … “everyone” expected a blood bath tonight when the futures opened.
5 waves down complete … expect a rally into the circled area “to start” .. why “to start” – well – I would expect a large rally tomorrow if everyone has been told everything is OK and that circled area is the area of the 4th wave of a lesser degree so that’s an initial target.
But, as I typed below on the chart – the entire rally from (2) or 4080’s can be retraced and this count remains valid.
So, I’m guilty as charged in thinking this is an “easy” trade I’m shorting the market because it’s all going to come unglued !!!! TAKE THAT and you wake up and the entire thing has slammed against you. Been there done that and ..don’t everyone want to be there again.
Taking the banks and all the real stuff that are important away … Folks looks like we just completed wave 1 down of the “c’ Wave or Wave III (not sure one it is yet) and therefore a rather large rally could happen. WE WANT TO BE SHORT AT THE END OF THIS RALLY!
Hope the rally comes and it’s real and my count is completely wrong … hope is a strategy, you know?
Very important support comes in for GS a little lower in/around the 320’s and then 300’s. We lose those levels then expect GS to breathe down to a VERY NICE BUY PATTERN from 243-247.
That buy PATTERN is a classic.
ABCD, .618 retrace, 1.27 extension and then the “crossover” structure .. dare I say, it’s a near perfect set up.
Which, like I always mention … can and does fail so that is the line in the sand for GS and, potentially, the entire banking system. (?)
I try to make it clear on the chart below that I just “don’t have a clue” if the ATH on the S&P 500 is THE HIGH or A HIGH … I don’t have the data and, frankly, I’ve seen very amazing professionals say it is THE HIGH and also say A HIGH. Both, totally possible. NOBODY KNOWS except the Architect !!!
With that backdrop, you can see that this chart is a “bullish conclusion” of this correction and support shall be found and off we go.
I would hold my powder dry to go long … remember, in this case we have a 3rd wave of the C wave starting and that’s UGLY so we’ll have plenty of time to get long and, as you can see, using our measured moves you can see we have a nice thumping coming lower.
So, there we have 3232ish level w/ 4 ratio’s and a little higher a 3 drives to a bottom (orange arrows) and the percentage decline from 2020. the 2950 ish is our ABCD (black arrows) and a nice overlap of .618 and .5 from the 2009 low.
One of those two should hold … and then, guess we’ll just have to wait and see. I’m not really looking forward to that …
One of these amazing professionals will be proven correct and they both have the guts to make “the call” … my call will be 1/ trying to get short into the zone shown (I’ve been stopped out twice trying to short this market but my analysis has been spot on … yup.) and then 2/ stepping up to BUY to test the “trend is your friend till it ends” thesis.
If our levels work, then were long for a multi year run into new highs.
If they get blown thru and fail either like a hot knife thru butter or provide some support but then, after a week or so, are taken out THEN things are really in the “other” category of the good/other grade category.
