You might want to spend some time and go back over that post as it lays out – in pretty good detail – the potentialities w/in the USD complex. What I do know is we are hitting patterns – just like everything else – and the USD is a ‘big deal’ w/ the yards and yards and yards of currencies flowing throughout the world.
Back when I started to learn FX the statistic was that all the worlds exchanges trading everything/anything they can would have to operate continuously for 90 days straight to equal one day of volume on the currency markets. Can you imagine how big it is now? Yup .. when you jump in to the ring of Foreign Currency trading, as Mr. Joe Dinapoli told me once “in a cage w/ angry an hungry gorilla holding dynamite and …they dynamite is lit.” Not kidding …
So, FX and, therefore, the US Dollar Index are something to always keep in your scan.
The gameplan laid out w/in the last post above has been working its way out, almost exactly (like a roadmap one might say), and we are now at the demarcation of the bullish or bearish scenario.
You know what, have no idea which way its going to go but , believe it will be revealing itself very soon.
The “bearish” USD count is as shown. IF we go above the “big read 2” then I’ll have to alter the count, which I have no problem doing. I like this count because of the expanded flat. It’s one of my favorite PATTERNS to look for … the ‘tip off’ that we might have more probability of the expanded flat than anything else is that the ‘c’ wave is almost exactly equal to 1.618 ‘a’. That’s the classic relationship or guideline and the fact that it’s hard to NOT count the 3 waves down. Folks, that is sure looking (the red box) to be an expanded correction and therefore we just finished wave (2) of 3 and it’s time to expect a nice bit of dollar thrashing for the coming weeks/months.
If we blow thru the smaller red (2) then I’ll have to throw it all away and readjust, which I have no problem doing.
Here’s the monthly correction with all the SAME measured move (blue arrows) that always occur.
Pretty wild that the worlds most famous company seems to certainly adhere to the vibration of those trading/investing in it … the geometry has certainly been something.
Dare we trust my Elliott Wave Count showing 5 waves complete from a couple posts ago? Or, the fact that the geometry creating the gravity center up there in time and space caused the resistance which – thus far- cause AAPL to star falling from the proverbial tree. Is it going to hit any of us on the head?
So, we have broken and closed below (on a monthly basis) a 21 year support trendline (have no clue if that’s important from a fibo perspective or not) and the next realy important trend line is the dashed purple support line … it’s already been tested and worked causing the most latest run up to all new time highs …
Guess the question is are you willing to make the bet that the “dashed purple line” will hold as support again and AAPL continues its amazing run higher …hmmm.
The XBI ETF is setting up for a POTENTIAL bearish H+S.
Keep an eye on XBI.
The high labeled “RIGHT” looks like the completion of an expanded flat.
Not hard to see the classic H+S pattern appears w/ the neckline shown as the bold green horizontal line.
If a “true” breakout then we would have expected the “polarity” of the black trend line hold as support – at least for a little bit. It sliced right thru it.
Next up is the .618 retrace. We really don’t have anything to project from so look for the 79-80 level to be support.
Hard to look at this chart as the company that I do Strategic Business Development for is in the biotech sector. What has been amazing is to watch all the VC’s and Private Equity people talk how bullish it is and – let’s face it – that was a NICE bounce off the green line but – what if its on a C wave ending the correction mentioned above?
The neckline has held for almost 5 years ….
Always look at the long term chart and here’s a long term MONTHLY LOG scale – the H+S pops out like a sore thumb, doesn’t it?
Seriously, asking a question here – does this look bullish?
Since the top in KRE around 77 EVERY down move swing has been equal to or close to the “read measured move arrow.”
I added volume tonight because I wanted to see if we had a BIG volume spike accompanying the pretty bullish engulfing candle (daily) that occurred on Friday. Volume is around the norm … take a look at when KRE bottomed. That’s a “capitulation” low.
We have a small gap that needs to be filled before we move into the crucial 42 area for the Regionals.
If Regionals are “ok” then this is a BUY PATTERN and KRE should find support in/around that level.
If the Regionals are “not ok” then, well, that level will NOT hold and the KRE will, more than likely move lower quickly.
Geometry …from one vector radius or measured move. See it to believe it and then BELIEVE and then you will REALLY SEE it …
Slider’s been added to the mix.
Slider and Ponch and I all flew together when at the FRS. While I was “technically” their instructor, those two dudes were teaching all of us … it’s all coming back to me now. I now remember them always challenging “technical” aspects of different weapons systems w/ well thought and researched questions.
I don’t remember if I ever answered one correctly.
They are also two incredibly gifted and patriotic men … love these guys and, seriously, if you could see the content of our text threads. It’s a riot …digression complete.
Anyway, at almost 10 pm EST for Ponch he called me and I could tell he was “in the zone” … we talked “this” stuff and left w/ a concept of inflection points as we were relating it to when we flew low levels – 500 ft / 500 mph and Ponch was actually an F14 Airshow Crew so he got REALLY low and really fast. Man, those days were truly a blast. But, we talked about upcoming turn points and width of route and everything in between …
Around 10 minutes later I got this in text:
“@Bart  Slider made a connection back to  Reality switch technologies when we were talking FEP/Act Inf and E-M theory.Â
The turns points we talked about tonight are attractors. They are part of the world space landscape.
The world space landscape is consciousness, it is learning, not static. This means attractors move. No map can reflect the terrain. The terrain is the map.
Patterns you are uncovering contain attractors (turn points).
The gap between what your patterns reveal and actual reality is known as surprise (Boyd called this New Information and mismatches, it also goes by entropy). We seek to minimize surprise.
How do we minimize surprise? We predict where we expect to find attractors (turn points). “
So, my commitment is, as we continue to dive into this “stuff,” I’m going to document it … we are onto an idea and Ponch / Slider have the scent. I’m honestly just along for the Patterns. (they’ll dump me in a heart beat when the next pattern guy comes along … 🙂 )
You might want to tell your friends to follow along … why not? It’s free … LOL.
Anyhoo … as we look at the market, one of the things I told Ponch is IT DOESN’T MATTER which swing we pick when we start to create its geometry. The only thing is we want to capture a “swing.” A major high and a major low …
This is why I use long term monthly charts and try to capture as much or all of the chart data/history as possible. Why? Because these ARE the swings – everything else underneath them are – perfect – FRACTALS of the BIG SWINGS. Or, if you would like to look at it in another way, the monthly swings are the result of the first 1 minute or tick chart low to high (assuming most charts these days are going UP) which was the metaphorical rock hitting the water but w/ an expansive force that would be governed by what? The laws of waves, which abide by the laws of music which ultimately produce – the geometry we see w/in all of our reality.
So, below you will see the progression from a “random” swing that I chose and the expansions both back into the past and into the present and future that abide by the natural law governing – well -us all.
SURF.LIVE.
Why not try it yourself – it’s that easy. I mean, come on, if your reading this blog? 🙂
So, as you can see, that one blue vector caused the geometry shown in the above charts which are pretty amazing if you look how the EXACT same delta outside the arc that was support back in the past, replicated itself EXACTLY the same price amount as the past. And, if you just “expand” the arc by 2.o and let your eye study the last chart you will see the “mirror opposite” correction occurring opposite the circle and along the same arc and price total of the one in the past. Wow.
But when things REALLY get fascinating (because it does STILL fascinate me) is because when you put the “entire matrix framework” together you get an amazing picture. Why so amazing?
Think about it – these trendlines and intersections are causing future and past inflection points or angles of ascent and descent based on the GEOMETRY SET by the angular (price and time) VIBRATION of that “blue measured move” down ….
And what’s that vibration do – just like the entire universe – it becomes form.
Study this chart … replicate it. It’s meditative. Or at least is has become …
A vibration is set in this 2D representation of PRICES MOVING THRU TIME when a security COMPLETES a major long term swing. A swing determined by a major swing low to a major swing high (preferably the first on a long term chart) or vice versa.
The vibration becomes form governed by natural law. What? Well, in a 2D world the platonic solid for that is a CUBE.
Hence, it’s just squares peeps …hence the reason we draw them based on the angular (PRICE and TIME) displacement occuring in the 2d representation of this event occuring w/in this game called life …
Our job, at least mine? Find the patterns to simply manage risk. The same patterns which repeat – as fractals – specifically governed by the emotional vibration of the masses which are trading the same securities day after day … and that’s why the patterns work … because they are, work with me here, simply geometric representations of the frequency, accordingly, NUMBERS that the masses put off subconsciously into TIME AND SPACE (sound familiar) leaving footprints for us to exploit to MANAGE RISK. (That’s all it is) and, since human nature never changes – “there is nothing new under the sun” – the PATTERNS representing the masses vibrational emotions of fear and greed are geometrically created by the same math and music that governs us all …
Now, one last …
Go ahead and make sure you blow up the picture above and spend a little time meditatively staring at the “center point” (where the purple and orange square trend lines meet and start the blue corrective move down) and you’ll begin to, slowly see triangles, then the triangles go together and then you’ll see – yup – the pyramid. Hugh … imagine that.
But now, keep just lifting that “center point” up from there and you’ll see the pyramid nice and clearly. Now, blink, and overlay the Square of 9 numbers on top of this pyramid and – now – do you BELIEVE?
Because if you BELIEVE you will SEE how this all works …
A little more on why sacred geometry and music combined with pattern recognition might work from the perspective of the markets
My friend Ponch and I are digging deep into the nature of the markets and, frankly, into the nature of reality. No kidding …
He might be THE expert (yes, that’s a bold claim but go look at his website or listen to one his podcasts – the man is brilliant!) at John Boyd’s the OODA loop.
We are discussing a theory we have around the OODA loop, consciousness, fractals and the creation of this 3D Holographic Game by the brain – frame by frame every instant – governed by the principles of natural law.
Did I just right that …? Back to the charts ….
Ponch asked me – why didn’t you pick the first low to the high ? The answer – I’m a straight shooter , “I don’t know, I just liked the one going down.” No kidding … but, like I wrote last night, you could do that and the trendlines might not be the same but they would be harmonic. Well, take a peak … X certainly seems to mark the spot now, doesn’t it …
For further discussion … think about this, seriously.
While I FULLY admit that the patterns have failed – it’s all probability folks but I have found NOTHING better at helping you get awesome entries, exits and, MOST IMPORTANTLY, risk control. WE ALWAYS KNOW WHERE WE ARE WRONG!
So, that being said, philosophically, let’s think about what’s going on here …yes, I am doing this “post price action.” I’m doing these exercises to expose the geometry and hidden order behind it ALL.
You see, once that initial high off the all time low – on a long range timelines is what I prefer – we have SET the vibration for the rest of this securities existence. (Sound familiar – think of YOU taking your first primordial breadth – the place and time (price and time sound familiar) of that first primoridal breadth sets YOUR vibration for the rest of your life. So, when a stock takes its first trade, the ENERGY or VIBRATIONS , begin … but the fundamental wave or frequency of that vibration won’t complete it’s period (see where were going) until it exhausts that first breadth… or high (in this case of the Global Dow)
During that time of the run up – the clocks that govern time for EVERYTHING – yes, the planets have moved a certain amount of degrees – singles, aspects, heliocentric, geocentric, etc. etc. – and that’s how you can start figuring out “which planets it’s shucking and jiving with or what pairs by understanding the impact of it’s IPO date/time. Yeah, no kidding … whatever planet is governing or lesser will give you clues and then … the cycle has begun and the waves go out – all according to natural law and, with ALL of nature being governed by sacred geometry and fractals we can use the same governing principles in anything that grows and contracts … and there we have it – the market.
Pattern recognition is based on the same natural laws that cover all of creation w/in this 3D Polarized Holographic game called life. The entire game is created under the same mathematical structure using constants and mathematical/physics principals that, essentially create and piece together this hologram.
Everything is vibration which creates waves which are governed by mathematical principals based on music.
These vibrations cause reality (they are all at different vibrations – just like all of us) and are perfect subjects to allow the 5 senses to feed the 12 cranial nerves of the brain so the brain can do what – PATTERN MATCH the information that is coming in to create thru our brain the reality we are witnessing. WOW.
The only way for the brain to be able to do that is to make every piece of the game be birthed from the one and created thru the one experiencing life thru it’s first division just like we do over and over and over again.
With all the above being said, that’s why I use pattern recognition to simply manage risk.
And, one last, if I’m drawing the squares off of one vector from the low to the high (or the first major correction) then isn’t the angles formed from that first initial move already in place …? 🙂
Tonight, for whatever reason, it was the Global Dow.
The past few weeks have been pretty amazing. I’ve done a TON of reading and sketching (yes, Mr. Robert Edward Grant got me into it) and a TON of BrainTap and meditating. Mr. Grant is an amazing follow and teacher. Recommend him – highly. A bright shining light counterbalancing some of the darkness gripping our FELLOW HUMANS. I’ll stop there … we are ALL connected. Be light ….
Anyhoo … in light of the above it was nice to kick back and go to a chart I had not looked at in a long time and come at it w/ fresh eyes. As I sat down, I said “what the heck is the rest of the world doing?” These times are the craziest I’ve ever seen … come on folks, take off your political hat (if you wear one, I DO NOT) and just admit – left, right, center – it’s flipping crazy out there right now!
Ahhhhh … the Global Dow.
I opened the chart, w/ NOTHING on it (no indicators or drawings) – just price and time.
Everyone can see the “measured move” that I chose as the “rock hitting the water” point. You could have used the all time low up into that big first high – it would have given, more than likely, different trend lines BUT I imagine it would have given trend lines that are significant and harmonic with the trend lines we have drawn.
The blue measured move arrow produces EVERY SINGLE bit of the geometry shown in the chart below. Take some time and just follow the bouncing ball up the chart and look at the GEOMETRY that this particular VIBRATION (the blue arrow) created.
Now, look at the top … the all time low, to the first high and then down (the blue arrow) projection is, yup, 1.618AB=CD and, the last swing in/around the 2022 timeframe is a 1.27 extension (square root of 1.618).
Trying not to confuse anyone w/ too many lines I’ve also drawn the 1.618 projection AND a dashed (feint) purple measured move which is equal – exactly – to the last swing high.
Now, just for a little fun, what was the EXACT high in January 2022?
4320 – 432 HZ. Thank you Mr. Grant.
All this being said, where are we?
Definitely against some STIFF resistance so going down for a bit is a good highly probable bet.
Is this THE top … I really don’t think so. Not that my counting is anything to write home about, but I do have a BULLISH count after this pullback – representing this is all this really is … a healthy pullback in an ongoing, potentially extending 5th wave. My other count is we are starting a wicked and, potentially THUMPING, C wave down. Ain’t Elliott Wave great?
Throwing any EWT aside, batten down the hatches, try and get some shorts on and just get ready for some volatility – potentially like we’ve never seen before or haven’t seen in a VERY long time. That’s just where we are all folks.
Folks … pretty amazing chart above. This is NOT about me … it’s about BELIEVING is SEEEING. (Thanks Mr. Grant)
SEEING the inherent PERFECT geometry in it all … and just sitting down in front of a chart and letting your eyes put together what they put together for your BRAIN every second they are open … guess, after time, the PATTERN RECOGNITION is nothing more than what you are doing – right now – reading this blog (if you’ve gone this far 🙂 )
Looks like we have a VERY nice set up getting ready to run:
TAN – Invesco SOLAR ETF. There are multiple Solar plays out there. I’m lazy, so I went to the ETF that covers the ecosystem.
We have a lot of positive indications that this one is worth the risk. This investment will be – more than likely – 3 years+ and I’ve been following it ever since David Keller, CMT (who I think is one of THE best out there) started talking about it years ago. Come to think about it, it might have been in the 2010-2015 area.
Anyway, here’s the way I see it –
*EWT is showing us STILL in wave 3 and that means we have some ways to go higher … I “like” the count and it doesn’t break any rules BUT please remember my golf game and EWT – we have some parenthesis present so I could very easily be subconsciously “forcing” myself into this count. Oh well, but you know me – full disclosure here.
*Volume is showing and interesting “breakout” – what I mean is volume steadily declined as the price declined greater than 60%. Once we “bottomed” notice how volume “broke out” and broke thru the resistance and is getting bigger as we are bottoming?
*This is the biggest one for me – the illusory TIME component. In this case we have the SAME TIME COMPONENT PRESENT for the two ‘major’ corrections thru thus far.
* Take the above about TIME and note what the price is sitting on – exactly – the 786 from the all time low to the most recent high. Nice.
*In this long recommendation – the price will HAVE TO overcome the red resistance line – due to polarity. A conservative play would be to BUY only w/ a monthly or weekly close above the red line. There is still plenty of room to run.
The next chart shows the “count” and in a bullish scenario – this ETF is getting ready to RUN. A .68179 (musical note) projection (monthly), sitting on top of the .786 from all time low to most recent high, RSI support which is showing the classic “breakout” to new resistance high for a BULLISH trend and, most importantly on this chart is THE EXACT SAME PERCENTAGE PRICE CORRECTION as the last correction move.
There we have it – PRICE equals TIME w/ other, important, but lesser confirmations from traditional technical analysis tools.
The NYSE Index HIT the square out at 18, 059 and reacted very very minimally (which surprised me to be honest) and is walking up the wall of worry. Today that level is at 18,070.
As you can see above, we have not CLOSED ABOVE the 1:1 trend line from the all time low and I suspect that it will continue to provide MAJOR resistance BUT as it happened last week, it can keep squaring itself out until it reaches the ‘final’ square out. As long as we do not get a close above (monthly) the 1:1 trend line this market remains vulnerable (very ?) to a pullback that could last, at a minimum, a couple months.
Here’s the DJIA approaching or hit an area of MAJOR resistance.
Same story w/ the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ:
The Russell 2000 is VERY weak compared to the other indices:
On prior posts we have focused on the Banks/Financials … the XLF has outperformed and made new highs … the overall market has followed. We are VERY close to a BIG ABCD completing on the XLF. If you remember the post on the Banks/Financials a few months ago, the XLF pattern failed and the market kept going higher.
If we take a look at the Banking index (NASDAQ) you will see it has been lagging badly compared to the overall general market. REAL leadership in the Banks/Financials would have this MUCH higher.
Sure looks like a zig-zag correction and 1.68AB=CD was hit Friday.
Where are you Mr. KRE?
The VIX is/has been flirting w/ going single digits but, it’s been LOW for a very very long time. There is NO FEAR in the market right now.
The sentiment/ fear-greed/bullishness is at MAX levels … NOBODY is bearish.
I was on my good friend Larry’s show and we were discussing he unrelenting advance present. He mentioned, in some weekend mail traffic that the last week on WED-THS there was the HUGE rallly of over 1o0 handles in the S&P500 while awaiting the FED’s decision/action. On both of those days the cumlative net open interest dropped.
We need to also pay attention to the companies that are, basically, controlling the market as custodians. Vanguard, State Street and Blackrock control roughly 70% of all trading going on … One would think that these would be at new highs …like everyone else?
Larry showed this over the weekend:
when we look at the shorter term cycles … we can see this one going on w/ the S&P500. Notice the harmony w/ the lunar eclipse and the moons synodic cycle:
A non-correlated, but a goody, at looking for both bullish and bearish inflections in the market – ratio analysis of XLP/NYA is VERY close to MAJOR support which, in the past, has been “bearish” for stocks. Again, it’s a “institutional gauge” of risk/risk off.
When it’s risky – the smart guys like Tim but toilet paper …the XLP does WORSE (from a relative strength standpoint) than the overall market and vice versa.
The target appearing on the XLP/NYA is the LARGEST MEASURED MOVE correction in the ratio since the inception of the XLP. PAY ATTENTION TO THIS LEVEL and the .618 retracement (from the all time low) a little lower.
There are MANY stocks that are manically parabolic … stocks like LLY will crumble and fall like a stone. As demonstrated before, the parabolic moves, from a pure subconscious level, have to balance and that massive move up will be followed by a big correction. It happens, every time …
NVDA will do the same … yes, I believe NVDA is going higher BUT I think we need a good ole’ corrective move to cool everything down.
Here’s LLY parabolic:
Here is LLY in MONTHLY LOG scale .. bumping right into the upper channel:
The market is overextended. Large, monthly targets are being hit.
If a perennial bull – think of taking profit or have some sort of “loss” stop in mind. Some are calling for a MASSIVE TOP and others are saying this bull market continues for years.
I try, the best I can, to just look for patterns.
ACROSS THE BOARD SELL PATTERNS HAVE AND ARE APPEARING …
IF they work, THEN – at a minimum – expect a good 6-8 week “pullback” that must be bought. LET’S JUST WAIT FOR THE FIRST BUY PATTERN TO APPEAR AND LET IT RIP.
IF the fail, THEN – this market could explode higher … into a parabolic run up that will put the 2000’s to shame.
I feel “pretty good” about this count as it’s been tracking ever since the “top” at 3.
Certainly appears we are in THE 5th wave … it could mark a 1 but either way, when complete, I do expect quite the meltdown.
No rules have been broken thus far –
2 can’t go below the start of 1 – check
3 can’t be the shortest – check
4 can’t overlap the beginning of 1 – check
Thus – looks like a 5th wave is in progress. the most recent price action “feels” like a 3rd of a 3rd so expect some up down up to complete 3, then a nice correction for 4 and then up up into the 5th of the 5th wave.
Targets, for now, are in/around 102-123. Will tighten as these levels approach ..
Also, don’t be surprised if it parabolically takes off also …
The concept of a “square out” is one of the most important in all of harmonic trading.
In this case, we believe that PRICE and TIME are the same thing … they are a NUMBER and they are intertwined. Say price makes a high (or low) of 50 … then 50 seconds, 50 hours, 50 days, 50 degrees of planetary motion (time), etc. etc. are spun out.
For the NYSE Index we have a BIG square out approaching.
The all time low on the NYSE Index was on 10/03/1974. That was, from tomorrow, 18050 calendar days ago.
18050-17728 (Friday’s close) = 322 points.
We are 322 points away from a HUGE square out of PRICE and TIME.
Take note of the last “big high” about 2 years ago … in that case, the market closed at 17,259 which so happened to be EXACTLY 17,259 calendars from the all time low. That is the significance of the red trendline – it’s the 45 degree angle and 1:1 or 1 point/day trendline. We REALLY want to NYSE Index to climb another 300 points to tag that red trend line … perhaps that happens mid-late next week.
Additionally, we have pretty large bearish divergence on the MONTHLY RSI and we have the same “fractal” pattern that existed in the move before the 2020 thump.
Then, just a little bit higher we have the measured moves which have been responsible for EVERY UP MOVE since the beginning of this index.
I sense/ believe, we are getting very close to a top (maybe THE top but I sense “A” top) ….
You’re probably aware the fear and greed sentiment indicators are thru the roof w/ extreme greed and then “Mr. Reliable” shows up … the “magazine cover indicator”
Last, here’s the geometry of the NYSE Index derived from the BIG MOVE off the low from 1974.
On this chart you will notice I put the “retracements” at the lows of 2002, 2009 and 2020 using the “node” of the all time low. The reason I do this is to check and see (Ronald Regan – TRUST but verify) if this is a significant node. As you can see, drawing the retracement grids using the all time low as near perfect.
2002 = .382 retracement
2009 = .618 retracement
2020 = .382 retracement.
This is a good number …how good?
Well, 350*51.50 = 18, 025 which so happens to be the exact angle of the Great Pyramid of Giza. Just saying …. 😉
That vector (blue arrow) represents the “rock hitting the water” and creates the harmony and music ….
And, of course, all this means is it could very well blow thru this level and take off parabolically.
When I look back at NVDA it’s been an interesting ride. I don’t trade it or own it, I enjoy charting it as a barometer of the overhyped insanity of this market. And, it’s a good use of my time picking off points of inflections and such .. I’m actually looking to deploy capital in the forex world but I just can’t seem to find a pattern. Ain’t going to force it …
Anyway, do I think it’s about time the NVDA rocket ship pauses – sure. It’s been on a crazy trajectory. I have the good old measured move abcd target at/around 7878 and come other targets a little higher and a little lower. It might have hit the extension target and that’s it. I know, wait until the PATTERN completes and, unfortunately, that’s a little higher.
While the patter was never hit for the buy, the “chart angle” did hold which I did identify if you go back a few posts. I just forgot about it and then the “chart art” was erased and there it was … oh well.
Here is an intraday look (30 minute) chart of KRE. A “near perfect” sell pattern has formed .. ideally, we would like the KRE to make a move up into the short zone.
Remember, IF this pattern fails (say that is a close (daily) above 62) then, I do imagine this will cause some fuel for the continued equity rally.
IF this pattern works THEN I’m afraid something ain’t right at the KRE world …let’s see what happens w/ the patterns.
These are the type of shorts you wait for….which, of course, always means it could fail miserably so always have a risk controlled gameplan.
If we break from current levels then try some short … or go full short if you really want, but I’ve been burned not waiting for the ABCD but with the entire market making “a” a top (who knows “if” the top) then perhaps this is as high as it goes … again, it’s all probability.
But look at this one …. all the ratios present around 460 .. got to take a shot ….
The Monthly (continuous contract) Natural Gas pattern has failed.
CTRL-ALT – DEL
UNG: expect support in/around 10-12, wait for a WEEKLY/MONTHLY signal reversal and BUY.
Take note of the RSI – haven’t pulled this rabbit out of the hat in a long time but – someone take a look and check on me – but the RSI LOWS ARE HIGHER while the UNG LOWS ARE LOWER.
CMT II (I think) – this is an RSI reversal. It refers to a situation where the RSI indicator moves in a direction opposite to the price, suggesting a potential change in the price trend.
At this point, that’s our only hope … first time I have EVER seen this in my charting history …
For now, I see this as an A-B-C correction w/ a move down occurring which should be BOUGHT to take up into the mid 100’s – for now.
I say for now because I’m a little “stung” (not that bad but just “stunned” ) I didn’t see the size of the rally in equities. I admit it, I was too stuck into “another leg down” (which I wanted to BUY OBTW) but that “one more leg down” never came … and a parabolic blow off had occurred. Nailed the October low but … missed the move.
So, just like I feel comfortable stocks are setting up for a BIG MOVE down (now or soon’ish) I feel pretty good that the low we made was the end of a 5 count move. If not, then we finsihed a 3 down around 84 and we have another move down below 84. Who knows …
But, given that I am “correct” I have put realistic target up there because, in this current environment, the TLT could go all the way up to 180 and STILL be against the “trend” which – I believe started w/ the high back a couple years ago.
And that, for me, is the key … that was a huge thumping and, the ‘look and feel’, tells me this isn’t going to be ‘easy’ or ‘cut and dry’ – can you President Biden enjoying the FED “raising rates” during and election year? Or, certainly would love for him to “cut rates” and how in the world , seriously, is he going to do that …?
So, this was a GREAT run down in TLT -in which I played LONG TBT and still long and hold a position – but from a “time” perspective I just think we need more TIME so I’m looking to BUY TLT after I see what happens at 91.18.
True, we have ‘some’ indexes making new highs but we also have some well below there highs in 2023. Market appears fractured …
DJ Utilities and DJ Transportation – lower highs.
DJ Composite, Russell, Value Line, SK&P 400 mid-cap – all down
Financials – still holding strong w/ regard to sell patterns
Junk Bonds still holding strong w/ regard to sell patterns
Multiple long term SELL PATTERNS completing
Until Junk Bonds and the Financials really break out … I’m very cautious.
According to EWT and the WSJ of the 11 sectors that make up the S&P 500, only 1, technology, accompanied the index to new all time highs. The other 10 are all at least 15% below their highs.
A key index to watch and one which will give us an idea of where we “really are” is the KRE …
Here is the SELL PATTERN forming on KRE:
The pattern, THUS FAR, has worked perfectly … if it keeps working the regional banks are in trouble folks and that means pressure on the equities.
Sorry, not all in on this rally in the overall equity world UNTIL KRE smoke this sell pattern w/ a WEEKLY CLOSE on strength above 55.
If KRE keeps going lower, something is a foot at the circle K.
Well, looks like the “top of the circle” strikes again … I’ve been watching AAPL at a distance, not really paying attention to the company even though I have an Iphone and they know everything about me … more on that later, if you want. (?)
But, took a look tonight and there it was … the darn top of the circle was still holding the price action at bay .. like the above paragraph … more on that later, if you want. (?) 🙂
The key to me – like a lot of the charts I’ve been posting lately – this could end the final wave 5. Who knows … but, for whatever count you watch or listen to … I think we can see 5 waves up complete. so, this move lower from 196 should continue lower. Near term, expect the gap support around 184, to offer support or even a buy if your a max bull. I certainly would not … I’m not a max bear but I AM seeing a LOT of BEARISH PATTERNS (long term) appearing all over the place so … at least a “caveat emptor” would be appropriate about now. Only TIME will tell …
In the chart above, one can see the “blue measured moves” have been important price moves and, from a percentage perspective, EVERY move UP in the ratio has met resistance after the “blue measured move” has completed.
Remember, this is LOG scale so 1/ the measured moves are percentage moves and 2/ the corrections might not appear that large on a log scale (percentage) basis, but they are significant.
For example, the “blue measured move” from the all time low caused a 21% correction in the ratio once it completed … so, these blue measured moves completing are something we should put on our radar.
One of the main reasons we are paying attention to the “blue measured move” is because that was the move UP into the all time high and it works very nicely w/ the flow/harmony of this ratio analysis chart.
You will not see this equality unless you 1/ go to long term charts and 2/ take a peak at LOG scale on the larger time frame charts.
This ratio (XLK/XLP) can be used as a barometer for “risk on” and “risk off.” The thesis being IF risk is on THEN the high flying NASDAQ 100 zooms higher (as in now) and IF risk is off THEN institutions/large retail roll into “staples” for the conservative tub of toothpaste, toilet paper, etc. AKA – the staples.
Right now we have STRONG VOLUMINOUS candles so risk is on … I’ve captured some very important levels a little higher that could stop this puppy in it’s tracks.
Additionally, the EWT count I have doesn’t break any rules so 1,23,4,5 and then we roll over? No pride in authorship of my “EWT count” as that is what stuck out to me. I can see “other” bullish alternative counts BUT on all of them this is a 5th wave so a correction in the ratio, which in turn has put pressure on the NDX 100 in the past, should work again as resistance for the NDX..
One last, take note of the above chart. These “sentiment” ratio analysis tools are excellent timing tools for the overall healthiness of the market. The PATTERNS work on them because the instruments being compared (ETF’s XLK and XLP) are, themselves, liquid.
In the environment we are in right now, I am going to WAIT for a signal reversal candle on a weekly basis to short this market. Parabolic arcs are appearing everywhere … over the past weekend I’ve come up w/ some pretty powerful levels based on a host of geometry, music, etc. and some of, after 10K’s of hours on the charts, the more “esoteric” (yet most profound implications for life on this planet) methods to simply manage risk.
DO NOT BE SURPRISED IF THESE LEVELS GET SMOKED AND THE TRAIN KEEPS ROLLING …IT’S JUST PROBABILITY FOLKS.
For those of you who have been following me for a while, when I start posting like crazy, it’s usually meant something is coming. Could be monstrous bullish …! WHO KNOWS.
The point being … when PATTERNS appear on the weekly/monthly across the board it’s a signal that “cycles are converging” because, ultimately, that is what the patterns are …they are a confluence of PRICE and TIME that will cause an inflection in the market. The LARGER TIME FRAME the PATTERN the LONGER THE TIME CYCLE HENCE THEIR IMPORTANCE …
I’m still looking/watching for the Bank Sell Patterns to FAIL to get on board for the breakout to new highs. I’m suspect at this point … the JNK bonds haven’t broken thru the ABCD, either. The Russell is a dog …
Who knows, something just doesn’t feel right about this move …
Well, look at that, sure looks like we need to get ready to deploy some capital and buy LIT …. it’s been getting hammered pretty good, so wait for a SRC on the weekly. Conservatives (me) can go for a close above 52 and then look to hold into the high 90’s and perhaps above 100. Not a bad risk – reward.
Had to post this here. This simple arrangement of rocks pictured below, based on Plato’s World Soul displayed as Lambda by Nicomachus, explained to me in the book “The Plato and the Quran” is just mind blowing important in the reality we live in … and sometimes these PATTERNS and the numbers are “easier” to see when I just kick back and relax and read.
Taking a look at LIT, I just “saw it.” All the following mumbo jumbo means nothing because PRICE is king and we stop out below 40 either way. Discipline Bart, Discipline.
I’ve been a road warrior that past couple weeks and I have spent pretty much every moment, when sitting in my window seat (broad shouldered), playing very spiritual music, along with Brain Tapping(sometimes twice a day) and also journaling– READING. I believe it opens you up to “see” stuff.
I’ll just leave it at …
How many books are there in the bible?
I used to think this all the time, the more you are around numbers as I am :), you realize NOTHING is random and especially the ancient texts that define our humanity. Finished the “Epic of Humanity” on this trip also, and, let me tell you, when read together in such a short time — WOWZA.
To get back to the question:
There are 39 in the old testament and 27 in the new testament.
Those numbers IMMEDIATELY pop out at ya down the right side of the rock formation.
“Even the very hairs on your head are numbered. ” Hmmmm …
An example:
1.618, the Golden Mean, arguably one of the most important numbers in the universe, is incredibly important. And, if you look at the chart below, you will see the purple 1.27. That’s the square root of 1.618.
So …we use square roots and the inverse of those square roots and we are going to deploy capital on that “number” (vibrational intersection based on numbers) so anything “harmonic” w/ that is also IMPORTANT.
Take this number (3927) and MAKE THE OUTWARD NUMBER (7) THE INWARD 37 and the INWARD NUMBER OUTWARD (29).
We now have 3729 which signifies to GO INWARD and MAKE YOUR INWARD THE OUWARD MANIFESTIONS OF YOUR REALITY.
“As above, so below” ….merge the two numbers (divide the into each other), which represents the marriage of the divine feminine and divine masculine, the polarity balances of forces in this 3rd dimensional plane or yin/yang and we get:
37/29 = 1.27
It’s TIME folks, it’s really really really time to GO INWARD!
And, anyone wonder why the 27 is on ONE Rock? It’s a representation that we are ALL ONE the POLARITY that represents this 3 dimensional existence is what we experienced during the, amazing, Age of Aquarius. Hence, it’s the ONLY rock to have two numbers. Old Testament and New Testament. WOW.
How about the left …?
1176+248 = wait what? come on now …
2024
To the charts … !!!!!
Note we have BOTH PRICE (PERCENTAGE) and TIME (same time as last major correction) EQUAL a little lower and perhaps next week.
Note the RSI support level and on this last swing we have created weekly bullish divergence … same w/ the daily.
And, a key low node, which created a very clear 5 waves into the high, is a 1.27 extension price target right at the measured move price.
This one is looking might tasty …
Nice “standard” red parallel horizontal (polarity) support lines that provide a nice level to manage risk and BAIL if we get a close below this level, on a weekly basis, make this a pretty nice opportunity .
Banks/Financials lead us UP and they lead us DOWN.
Decision time Banks/Financials …
Also, take a look at XLF … completed, not only a Gartley SELL but it also has an embedded BUTTERFLY SELL PATTERN w/in the Gartley. IF XLF gets above the upper zone of the red rectangle – off to the races but it has to get thru a LOT of resistance, first.
So many AUMazing things are going to happen this year … get out your tin foil hats.
Speaking of tin foil hats, tighten your chinstrap.
I’ve shown before how to use the “what we learned in grade school” to use 3 points to create a circle. That is all we are doing folks … but, what makes the subject a tin foil hat is the fact, well, that we did w/ stock prices. Yes, trust me I know ..
Tonight, I just saw LLY out of nowhere (I used to try and sell into them – try being the operative word – and they were just loyal (to a fault) to their current vendors and, shucks, I really respected that about em’. Made it hard to go back to the boss and say, I’m trying, I really am but they ain’t budging … GREAT people also. So, I know a vast majority of them are really loving their options … so, kinda sucks to do this post, because, parabolics don’t end well. Doesn’t mean that you can’t recover eventually and some have and do but for a while, you’ve simply run out of airspeed and there is NO WHERE TO GO but down …
Additionally, it’s near impossible to call a top on any time frame ( 😉 ) so I’m throwing some zones of possibility into where and take a crack at it … BECAUSE it’s parabolic and we really don’t have a look into their true airspeed or where the throttles are … due they still have power in em’ to keep this climb going or have they been at MAX AB for a while and it’s just a matter of time before you just … stop climbing. And w/ all the geometry I’m going to show below, why can’t we throw a little more physics into the mix? So, basically, it’s just runs out of airspeed and ideas … kerplunk.
Lilly – wait for a SRC if today was the high – that’s down around 590 ish on the monthly but a daily could suffice also. Else, I’d short at 660 w/ a close stop. From there I’d wait till 739.
For me … 660 seems the most plausible because of the measured moves but also because of the geometry. The latest candle could have done it also but in my experience , it’s just better to have a pattern along/w the geometry.
Had not posted in NFLX for a while and forgot (honestly) what a beat down they took but man – also – what a rally!
I wouldn’t be surprised to see a near term pullback w/ the .618 retracement approaching/hit w/ some daily bearish divergence. But, that being said, it bounced off major LONG TERM LOG TREND LINES and that means, for now, the band plays on … if we ever get back to the lower end of the log trend lines (key – LOG TREND LINES) I’d be a buyer. Of course, that would have been the one time it broke support! 🙂
For those that have been following me a while, you’ll know I enjoy using some mathematical methods to derive targets. I’m not going to dive into the math behind these calculations but I am leaving a copy of the spreadsheet so you can see and test the hypothesis if you like. If/when I’m wrong, please let me know and I’ll correct.
Using logs and musical notes based on the equal octave scale of music, the note of “E” has shown up at pretty much THE major tops of our past century. 1987 and 2007. So, I just moved up another octave and calculate the 40K + ish target shown below. I was always wondering if … or how …we would get to that “number” and we are now w/in percent of that target.
What really gets me excited is that we have a ton of “other” targets coming in to this area/zone. Wowza … I honestly have NO IDEA what is going to happen … but things are certainly lining up.
The sell PATTERN worked from the last post but it really hasn’t gone anywhere – amazing that the “number” is still holding the bots, super computers, hedge funds, etc. from blowing thru it … all based on sacred geometry and music.
So, it’s not that much of a stretch to see this as a “bearish flat correction” in EWT and we are finishing/finished w/ the Wave C and IWM starts back down.
Did some very rudimentary timing work to get a feel for the timing … we could certainly go up a little more into resistance shown by the horizontal black line but let’s just wait and see what happens.
Last, the IWM “bottomed” on 161.8. Pfizer topped at 61.8 … can’t make this up folks. Cheers.
The above is the bearish case near/medium term for now … but when we have corrections like we do I always go back and work thru what Michael Jenkins (www.stockcycleforecast.com) taught me w/ Mirror Image Foldbacks. They are AMAZING PATTERNS to see and follow and they “usually” will “fail” at the swing points but check this out … maybe? near term IWM keeps chugging up and then gets tanked? Hmmmmm ….
Here are three VERY NICE SELL Patterns across 3 securities that represent a majority of the banks/financials that are out there. The PATTERNS are saying sell and, if you look at XLF below, the PATTERNS are only 2-4% away so it’s not that inconceivable that they could go up and tag those targets.
Look – folks WE WANT THEM TO GO UP AND COMPLETE the patterns because then we will have, what I consider a GREAT leading indicator to help us position on the short or long side – FAILED PATTERNS.
IF these patterns hold and work then the banks/financials start down which, invariably, will hit the equities. IF they FAIL then the banks/financials surge higher and the probability that this market melts up gains some higher probability.
So, watch these patterns, very closely. They will give us a good idea on where we are … in some of the briefs I do out there I ALWAYS talk about failed patterns, because they do fail, but these failures, in the market we are in now, are very powerful and indicative of what is “really” going on …
I’ve put a rudimentary “count” of the US Dollar below because we need to develop a gameplan for the coming Santa Claus rally or Santa Claus puts coal in everyone’s stocking …and, I have NO OVERT OPINION on which direction equities will or won’t go …
The US Dollar is VERY important for equities .. here’s an overlay of the S&P 500 and the USD … pretty much every inflection in the dollar leads to an inflection in the equities of the US.
Dollar up – equities down.
Dollar down – equities up.
If you have been following this blog for a while, you know I pretty much “live and die” by the measured move and I was watching the dollar corrective measured move like a hawk and it did not disappoint. It hit perfectly … here it is “real – near real time.”
That level hit nicely and the USD has moved nicely higher as shown below:
So, where are we ? Yes. LOL.
The count is very interesting and, knowing my golf game and counting strokes on the course I’ll give it my best shot. The bullish scenario came from my friends at Elliott Wave. They see the consolidation as a triangle … I didn’t, but it make sense.
This is a BULLISH DOLLAR and therefore BEARISH EQUITIES:
The next one just “looks” better and that’s an expanded flat which, if correct, makes this move down in the dollar probably the 1st of 5 to come in a C wave which will take the dollar substantially lower AND cause equities to find support/continue higher and/or dare I say rocket ship higher?
For now, the bearish dollar count below could rally a few days and then sell off again …
NO MATTER WHAT – FOR ANY OF THE SCENARIOS THE BLUE RECTANGLE ZONE WILL BE THE KEY. PERIOD.
What I’m “concerned” about is the TIME component of the bullish chart above. We are correcting a 5 wave move that was 15 years in the making. On the first wave two correction (a perfect ABDC OBTW) it took “two” of the blue measured moves before it started rocking and rolling again … the wave four correction had one of the blue arrows and the other wave down wasn’t an exact measured move but notice the TIME that it took … so, now, after this 15 year move your going to simply do one “blue measured move” correction down and that’s the a-b-c and off we go higher?
Natural Gas is at a very key junction w/ regard to price and a bullish move.
This is based on the MAJOR buy pattern on the monthly shown below. That pattern hit w/ both PRICE and TIME and that is the reason this “huge support” shown is such a big deal on the Nat Gas.
For those of you suffering w/ me in UNG I offer this very well written piece that was published just recently:
While I was aware of these type of situations having once been a CTA (focused on spot currency markets), I did not think it would effect this opportunity in such a way. Full disclosure I bought UNG in/around the mid 9’s and ran it all the way up to 34 and STILL OWN IT. Why … ?
Well, it’s not good investing – check.
BUT (always the “but”) I want to ride a wave from the very beginning (or what I thought was a BIG LOW) and go thru the ups and downs to understand how my FEELINGS/EMOTIONS would not only be reflected in how I viewed the chart and it’s price action but also how it actually felt to live thru the emotions of fear and greed just like they talk about w/in the “psychology of Elliott Wave.” So far, they have been pretty accurate.
So, folks, this ones a loser. My gameplan is to look for a low … I have another target down in the 3’s believe that one or not but really watch this PATTERN on NAT GAS to see if it holds.
No regrets .. it’s been a great year but this one has most definitely been in the “other” category. I’m going to put the best strategy in the world to work – HOPE- and look for that bounce up to around my entry and then gracefully exit this science experiment. Unless, of course, greed gets a hold of me and somehow I think this thing is really going to rocket to the moon … yeah.
Appears, since the last post on Transports is in tact but the 3 wave sale signal and H+S pattern never worked and the market needed one more move before starting to sell off …
The “kiss of death” or “outside return” or “polarity” trendlines are present our about to be hit so we are at a VERY important point in the Transports … if they blow thru here w/ strength then we could be off to new highs.
If they smack into the orange trend lines and start stelling off then we have a 3rd wave starting/started and the next MAJOJR target is the highlighted green area … that’s a ways away, but that’s not that far away if we get rocking and rolling and overall liguidity goes night night …who knows?
Keep your head high and smile … it’s make a difference for everone!
Well, well, well … it’s fun when “stuff” comes together like this. Are we exploding to new highs or are we having the “mother of all bear market bounces” (for the record: I HAVE NO IDEA) over the past couple weeks?
Guess what?
Mr. Trust XLP/NYA has completed or is about to complete a “perfect” or “near perfect” (all that means is the ratios and projections are lining up – has nothing to do w/ the probability of it working or not – we NEVER know) BUY PATTERN.
So, now we just go to our trust “if – then” gameplan:
IF the BUY PATTERN HOLDS on the ratio THEN stocks should be reversing or reverse soon and continue DOWN….
IF the BUY PATTERN FAILS on the ration THEN stocks should continue to climb higher and take out the old all time highs as a real – distinct – possibility.
Think about it … this is NOT a political statement.
If you have received EVERY booster GREAT. That is your CHOICE.
If you have not taken any COVID vaccine then GREAT. That is your CHOICE. (kind of)
So, in the midst of the calamity that was 2007-2009 the market (S&P 500) stopped at 666. OMG the number of the beast, the OMEN, the blah blah. But, no doubt a pretty “big” number in regards to humanity and our condition existing in this 3D holographic GAME. But, even more crazy, is the relationship of geometry and the fact that, the ATH was a projection using the Euler number. Something embedded in the Vitruvian Man by Da Vinci thanks to your work Mr. Robert Edward Grant.
What’s funny is I had used the Euler number projections before Mr. Grant explained the unbelievable importance of this number to me … but, wow, w/ everything he is uncovering and discovering w/ regards to THE language of geometry and numbers, this is pretty darn amazing.
Additionally, in the chart below, where did the CRAZY correction that occurred during COVID go down to? Well, of course the “neutral” or “equality” point or, perhaps the balancing point between the male and female energies? The “geometry” or “measured move” of the price move AB=CD is where the correction went …
Seriously folks … the bread crumbs are EVERYWHERE.
Anyone ever look at the ATH in the LOONIE vs USD? High was 1.618
So, now, I think anyone who had a pulse during the past couple years would say that Pfizer (PFE) has played a MAJOR role in the COVID-19 “experience.”
Again, THIS IS NEUTRALITY FOLKS – your consciousness experience determines if PFE is on the GOOD or the OTHER scale.
All, I’m saying is the game – ONCE AGAIN – reveals itself. PFE topped at a PERFECT pattern completing … at 61.8
The TLT trade at 84 https://bartscharts.com/2023/10/13/tlt-october-13-2023/ coincided to the day w/ Uranus moving 84 degrees helio. From an astrological perspective, degrees of movements of Uranus are important for bonds/fixed income – or so I am told. 😉 The chart appears heavy and certainly thought it would close below and keep rolling but .. it lived, for now. honestly, not too bullish on it but what do I know. But, that started to change when I went and took a peak at the 10 year interest rate chart – $TNX.
The bonds are in a complete route … that being said, I’m trying hard to not look at the fundamentals because 1/ I don’t understand them and 2/ I’m just a simple pattern guy.
We have confluent technical indications that the bond route “should” be coming to an end, for now. I know there is no justification for this from all the talking head pundits … but I’m just looking at the chart.
A pretty clear Elliott Wave count showing we are in a 5th waves and it sure could be complete.
A weekly bearish divergence in the RSI from the last peak. Yes, it’s not a lot, but it has “not” exceeded the last peak.
Two 1.618 extensions and the most important one being from 5 years ago. They overlap almost exactly. The last one, well, that’s from the wave 3 high and, that one lies exactly on top of the first. NOTE – both of these highs we used the extension from topped in October …
Mr. Measured Move – blue arrow
Some other stuff
So, this is looking as the first “real” opportunity to stop this runaway train of rates … but, this train WILL GET GOING AGAIN as I’m counting this as the first wave completing/completed in a 5 wave sequence. (remember folks, wave 3 can’t be the shortest, so get ready. now that doesn’t mean it has to be long as wave 1, then it can’t be shorter than wave 5.) The characteristics of the 3rd wave usually mean that it will equal or exceed wave 1.
To put wave 1 in perspective from a percentage move it has just been a 1,483% rise in interest rates since the low. IT IS JUST GETTING STARTED.
If we blow thru this level – and, of course, why not – then it’s pretty conceivable that we could roll all the way up to the .382 from the 1981 high in interest rates. What do you know?
My good friend Jerry over at https://growmytsp.com/ sent me a chart over last night and, using basic measured moves, you can see the “rhythm” and moves of this index. Since the low in 2022, it’s been the same percentage move UP and same percentage move DOWN. (green lines = up and red lines = down)
We are at, or perhaps a little lower, pretty significant support …
why is this important .. I’m not gong to bore you w/ fundamental analysis about credit spreads and all that when a picture paints a thousand words …the picture below is saying “when I bottom, the S&P tops.”
On the daily chart below the JNK gapped down today and closed below (daily) the two trendlines we have monitoring. On the “good” and “other” scale this is an “other.”
That being said, the REAL trend line that is CRITICAL is the second chart … a daily close below that and we might have the nascent beginnings of a credit event on our hands …
Extremely important pattern appearing on the S&P 500 / ES tonight. As I was cruising the charts I noticed this SELL PATTERN on the cash S&P 500:
The reason this is so important is the most recent high is “supposed” to be the second wave / b-wave high and we “should” be going down … failing this pattern STILL gives weigh to the higher target shown and we have that BIG GAP to fill so it’s not a “sure thing” for the bulls but I live and die by the PATTERNS and this one is a nice one … if you see (not labeled) the 3 wave move to the recent high that we are shorting fits ‘nicely’ into a 2nd wave and, again, we “should” be going down in/around here and pretty much, now …
why now? let’s go to the ES
I like the “concept” of square outs as it’s pretty simple … price equals time. so xyz many points down converts to days and then you use calendar days (in this case) to project a future “square out” of price and time.
in this case, the market fell 283.75 points and, moving a decimal (trust me we can do that – go read or follow Mr. Robert Edward Grant – he’ll explain it. Too long to do here … anyway that becomes 28.3 calendar days and, from tomorrow 09/15/2023 if you go back that many days you get the low at 4350 on 08/18/2023. A “square out” takes place on the E-mini tomorrow and it’s up against a BIG resistance zone – sure looks like a short too me? Doesn’t it?
Well folks, here’s a VERY important level for the market. We are all pretty aware that “as Apple goes, so goes the market.” Now, of course, you have the FANG and all that but Apple is pretty important.
As I was taught by Larry P – in a bull market, it’s always wise to BUY the ABCD.
Guess what – we have a PERFECT BUY set up for AAPL. And, on a daily timeframe.
Pay attention to this level .. it sure looks like a 3 wave (green arrows) move to new highs (perhaps a “b” wave” ) and now we have a 5 wave decline starting that “then” must be bought. Or, is this a wave 4 to finish a 5 wave sequence up? Welcome to Elliott Wave. 🙂
From a pattern perspective, we have a “near perfect” BUY PATTERN on APPL approaching. I would “expect” some support and if this market is bullish then perhaps AAPL will take off?
I can tell you that if we fail to the downside and this level gives away w/out even a hinkering a fight then the entire market will be under significant pressure.
So, this is why I like the PATTERNS so much. I turn off the news as much as I can … yes, I saw some news somewhere about China and the I-phone and blah blah a day or so ago but I posted the “top of the circle” weeks ago .. no idea. Folks, prove it to yourself, the news breaks w/ the cycle.
So, WATCH THIS LEVEL ON AAPL CLOSELY … it’s a big deal.
Well, rates are spiking and bond prices are falling like a stone. Yup … and to think, folks, this is just wave one down. As discussed about a month ago, the target for this ending wave down is now around 110 is and then, still, the zone lower in the 98-103ish …Who knows, if you think about it.
IF my count is correct, THEN this will be a wave 2 in a bear market in bonds that could last years …and, if the recent wave 2 / b wave in the equities market is any barometer I believe this bounce will be BIG because the narrative of “inflation is under control” and the “fed is easing” and blah blah will come out and EVERYONE will think, that’s it and back we go to tinsel town. BONK.
Just counting … that ain’t gonna happen. Might we get some rate cuts in the upcoming bounce? Sure … Might rates naturally drift back down and blah blah blah blah – absolutely. Folks, it might seem that all is GREAT again.
But, it’s just wave 2 folks. Bonds have been going down for almost 3+ years … a 6 month to a year bounce – CERTAINLY in the cards.
So, I’m going to keep my TBT position ON as I’m going to ride all the waves (like UNG, cough cough – what the heck, why ain’t that thing moving …?) but I’ll be a BUYer of TLT for this bounce.
Why not? Nice bullish divergence on the weekly and monthly w/ some good targets. So, guess we’ll see.
NOTE: it’s getting pretty squirrelly out there … I’m pretty confident in these levels on the 30 year continuous chart. VERY in fact – one of them will stop this free fall. If they don’t, and the bonds fall right thru these levels – I’ll be shocked and awed. LOL … no kidding, the Bond market in a free fall is really an “other” on the good/other scale.
Well, we have a BUY PATTERN on JNK right around the “key” trend line … that’s been holding the Junk Bonds up for all of 2023 and the last quarter or so of 2022. It’s important .. doing “basic” trend line construction we can see the “minor” purple line will give us a heads up but I think Mr Red Trend line is the key … we lose that and I find it hard to get this market going higher for a while…but you never know, right?
One of my first teachers had an amazing saying and it’s one that has stuck w/ me for 15+ years. When your trading/investing – you might not realize it – but you truly are playing with giants. The amount of money flowing right now, not even while the NYSE is open is mind boggling. And here we sit, w/ our mouse at the ready and, basically, playing Cowboys and Indians as we click to enter here and then click to put the stop in … bang bang, you’re dead! LOLOLOL … man, wonder if the kids and even play that now? For those of you in the late 40’s to mid-50’s club – we had the LAST real childhood. Shoot, I STILL have my bigwheel scar on my knee. what a WRECK that was and one of my best friends, David R actually went UNDER a car as it was driving. Not a scratch … anyway, I digress.
So, I use PATTERNS to look for inflection points and then try and manage risk and put a position on …that’s my version of Cowboy’s and Indian’s …
But what Mr. Dinapoli said was “when you enter the markets you enter the world of huge gigantic gorilla’s … pause … and they are locked in a cage w/ you …pause…and they are carrying dynamite …pause …and they dynamite is LIT.
Below is my interpretation of Gorilla’s, in our cage (locked OBTW), carryingy lit dynamite:
And we can also make note that China is DUMPING our bonds and blah blah blah. This is the backdrop folks. Until we have a PATTERN (remember: work or fail) then this is all just conjecture … but the USD is on the verge of a breakout that could get it soaring. I can see why it stopped today and I would like a nice orderly pullback to get short some EURO but I really don’t know if that will come.
I don’t think one billionaire is reading this blog right now (if you are, we could use some donations for the next SUP Vet retreat if you’re out there) so it’s mostly just you and I (Joe Retail) playing Cowboy’s and Indian’s.
Either way … might be time to tighten stops, ask yourself how much you want to be drawn down in your 401K and make some adjustments.
IF my count is right … (remember, my Elliott abilities are like my golf game 😉 then we have started another move down in bond prices but I do believe this is the 5th and final wave of just the first wave down … that being said, w/ all of the “noise” and “sentiment” w/in the market about “inflation under contorl” and the “Fed is going to Ease” and “blah blah blah” I believe this is a countertrend opportunity which could bounce PRETTY BIG just based on sentiment, alone.
For now, I have the 82-85 region as the first target to end Wave 1 down … multiple confirming but non-correlated techniques are showing this to be a very important zone.
I am long TBT (inverse of TLT) and plan on keeping that position open but will also go LONG TLT and have both a long TLT and long TBT position open at the same time. I sense that TBT will be held for YEARS as interest rates are not done for the long term, at least in my VERY humbled opinion.
I like this zone because, a lot of times when the wave 3 is extended you will find wave 5 = wave 1. (FWIW wave 3 was exactly 3 times as long as wave 1 down)
AAPL smacked into the 1.27 which was also a 1.618 price projection level and has broken down. In face, it has left an island reversal. An island reversal on AAPL .. who the what the?
This is a VERY interesting chart as I do think 2022-2023 was a corrective 4 … but I just don’t think AAPL is done yet so believe this pullback needs to be bought in the coming months but, for now, let’s watch the measured move area around 145.
sounds crazy, but sure looks like bonds are going to break the big support that’s been holding em’ up and, frankly, target the blue zone as shown in the below charts. Ummmm, ouch. Right? If my count is wrong, then we will go up and do another leg to finish the a-b-c corrective move BUT either way, I feel pretty good w/ the count from the “big” top above perspective so we “should” be going down in bond prices regardless of the news and then we find some pretty big support and a BIG WAVE 2 or B Wave will get everyone thinking “inflation is over” and the rates are GOING DOWN and yeah team … but, that’s just gonna be the wave 2 or the B wave … after that is the “ouch” 3rd or C wave and rates are gonna explode …
Here’s the TLT (I AM LONG TBT) look that could, realistically, get targeted over the long term. I know, hard to believe … just calling it like I see it.
Saw the gap up today – pretty darn impressive – so I immediately went to the XLF and “figured” that it would have gapped up w/ everyone else and blew over the .786 retracement and off to the races. IT DID NOT. Hmmmmm
Because of that, I cruised around JNK, XLF, $BKX and KRE and saw a lot of TIME convergences and SELL PATTERNS completing ….add that to the amazingly insanely bullish sentiment out there and, well, is this is easy as it looks to get long, set it and forget it?
Not until the financials and Junk Bonds show strength and really rally …until then, I’ll hold my powder w/ regard to the broad equity indices.
WATCH THESE PATTERNS for a clue to what is next.
The banks/financials ALWAYS lead us UP and, also, lead us DOWN.
for the two charts above, note the TIME component of the ABCD “basic” projection …
below is the KBW Banking Index. Same picture but spent a little bit more “time” on the “time” aspect (get it, that was supposed to be funny) and noticed that, since, basically, last year the TIME component of pullbacks have been pretty consistent (see blue arrows) and, now we have an ABCD in price and time along w/ some other “basic” static cycles.
the other thing I want you to study is the “fractal” nature of these two patterns.
pretty key level for the Banks/Financials:
Junk Bonds have tried to break out 8 times from the .618 level. If they break down below the gap zone shown, this could be a big deal. Note the green horizontal lines – no swing low has been broken since Oct 2022. So …. keep an eye on the Junk Bonds
Well, we are hearing (once again) about the death of the dollar as the worlds reserve currency and all that … that will probably happen but not just yet.
Either way, we have hit a VERY important support level on the USD. Measured moves make the world go around … we hit the measured move, the long term polarity trend line and a butterfly buy. Exactly.
So, little bit of a judgment day for the US Dollar. I find it hard to “see” that the down more is over simply based on “balance, form and proportion” BUT this could be a MAJOR low in the USD. Go figure …
I’ll wait for the first BUY PATTERN to emerge and see how the dollar reacts to that …
For now, watch the downtrend line from the old high .. a breakout (daily close) above that trend line will be a good hint that probability is shifting to a big dollar low.
For now – the patterns worked – but I’m going to watch and see how this plays out.
I’m currently LONG the USDJPY via an ETF so a strong dollar doesn’t necessarily fit the USDJPY narrative I’m working w/ .. even though the USDJPY is only 14% of the USD Index (majority weighted in EURO) it still has more weighting that the USDCHF and the GBPUSD. So, this is an interesting one – for sure.
Staying w/ the preferred count shown in green. That being said, this could be, as shown on the alternate count the beginning of an a-b-c = Y move down … so, while this gives up a lot of the move, we’ll just use the EWT correction RULE that wave 4 cannot go below the end of wave 1. That level is around 220. As long as this correction (labeling it that right now) says above that 220ish level – then it is still game on and TSLA to new highs to finish a long term 5 wave sequence.
looks like this triangle will be resolving soon enough … prices like to “surge” out of these type of patters to …it will be pretty interesting, from a political perspective, to see which way it resolves.
spikes lower … Biden Administration has brought down inflation and lower gas prices.
spikes higher …the opposite for President Biden’s administration as gas prices spike higher in the 2nd half of his administration.
the ABCD target on NVDA has been hit on the monthly (it actually went higher and did the 12th root of 2 (1.05946) which is the ratio used to tune the equal octave scale of music) with noticeable bearish divergence on the 14 period RSI. I expect some serious resistance. If we blow thru it, then this stock can run. I will update some of the higher targets later if we below thru this level.
additionally, we can see a 3 drives to a top on the daily.
“mind the gap” – huge gap support, as shown, lower.
Well folks, we are at a pretty big fork in the road. The SELL PATTERN on the SPX is “close” and pretty much hit and then the XLF went up and tagged the lower end of the sell zone … gapped up and then closed at the lower end. One can see a couple small laborious machinations up and down before the SPX target is hit so we can sneak into the upper half of the sell zone before really calling the PATTERN complete and the selling to begin – or not.
If this pattern fails, it might to be early to back up the truck, but the melt up will certainly continue …
But, don’t get too excited for that to happen. SOME STIFF RESISTANCE/SELL PATTERNS PRESENT in XLF aka FINANCIALS.
VERY important level approaching in/around 4500 and hen 4525-4550. Frankly, these levels are the last gasp hope for the bears.
Note, the time worked out very nicely but the PRICE was not hit and we’ve held support. Doesn’t look to inconceivable that the targets above won’t get attacked in the coming days?
Birthday today .. so spent some time listening to Zen music and just using the crayons.
One purple (crown chakra) line that defines a radius of a circle and then … every turning point thereafter.
Yes, it’s “past tense” but we can use this forward … I try (as you all know) to make my charts “present” or “near real time” and not in the past but for this drill I was just enjoying the geometry …
work w/ me …
cheers – B
Here’s Metatron’s Cube and the DJIA … go follow Mr. Robert Edward Grant. He’s doing amazingly powerful work around the geometry and ratio’s that we use w/ the patterns …I just printed out the DJIA w/ the purple radius and then free handed and used a compass. It might be off a little bit BUT you get the picture … Metatron’s cube, in historical spiritual texts, is responsible for ALL of creation in this 3rd dimension. So, why wouldn’t it work w/ the stock market … right? 😉
Well, this is one of those that you wait, in this case almost 9 months, for the pattern to appear. I almost tried it at the ABCD but something just told me to wait. Now, we have a 1.618 price projection right on top of the lovely .786 and a bunch of other ratios.
Why is this a big deal? Because the top up at 151 was a major top. Thus … for us Fx Junkies, we need to short USD vs JPY at 146-147 and if I’m right this is going to be one heck of a ride down.
I’m a tad perplexed on this chart as one can make the case for some bullish action BUT I’m not even to try and count the different machinations and I don’t want to “could have would have should have” when it comes to my wave counts …
I’m picking lower simply because of the last time it did the same measured move .. it corrected about down to the blue box. That’s my kind of investing – as many of you know – I WAIT and STALK a chart for a long time before entering. So .. seems reasonable to me.
Obviously, out black neckline of the H+S present is “crucial” for the bulls as I don’t want to see a weekly close below that line or – that opens up the first target of 64-67.
From there I see the blue zone as MAJOR support and a BUY if you can wait that long …
I posted the chart below a little while back … it’s a chart of the ten year interest rates and what I’m trying to show is that, yes, banks and a lot of people got caught w/ the rising interest rates.
Folks, it took 40 years to rise the 700 ish % .. we’ve done it in 3 and we are not done. I’m counting this as wave 5 of 1 or A. So, in the short-medium term expect interest rates to continue rising. Then of course we will get wave 2 or B and everyone will think the Fed is done tightening and that’s when the real smash will occur – a C wave or wave 3 higher? What if this is a new “bull market” in rates…? Wave 3 can’t be the smallest SO … interest rates are rising folks. Ugh.
Just like the last post on the Banks ( https://bartscharts.com/2023/07/01/xlf-financials-july-01-2023/ ) the NYSE Index – an index composed of all the stocks traded on the NYSE (~5000 securities) – is tipping it’s hand and showing a VERY important SELL PATTERN.
In this case, we have ABCD in PRICE and TIME.
If this market is bearish, this sell pattern will work …
If this market is bullish, this sell pattern will fail and the band will play on …
The PRICE AND TIME aspect of this PATTERN make this one VERY important …
Trust that everyone enjoys the long weekend enjoying the Birth of our Republic.
Question, when is the last time you hear a politician refer to the United States as a Constitutional Republic?
I pledge allegiance to the flag of the United States of America and to the _______ Republic or Democracy for which it stands? We know the answer …
Anyhoo … enjoy the weekend and the amazing country that we live. Be safe out there!
Financials .. the banks lead us UP and the lead us DOWN.
I really have not idea where we are as in a BULL or BEAR market. I am probably the last dude out there thinking we have another wave down coming. I think that for one reason: the Leading Diagonal pattern. The low in October 2022 was either a 1 or an A. If it was an A, then the B wave could go up and make new highs and then a smashing C wave. Else, we are going up in a wave 2 …
How can we figure out where we are going? New highs or another move lower …?
I like to use a PATTERN THAT FAILS or a PATTERN THAT WORKS and here we are .. a VERY NICE GARTLEY SELL PATTERN ON THE BANKS.
IF IT HOLDS AND WORKS AND THE BANKS START DOWN THEN … I suspect a move down will be coming.
IF IT FAILS AND THE BANKS CONTINUE TO GO UP then I think this will add fuel to the upward move.
34-35.66 on the XLF.
One last, note the measured moves …almost all of them (red arrows) are exact. Those that went a little higher were harmonic w/ 1.27 and 1.618 of the measured move.
Was over on the Top Gun options group chat working some NVDA charting and I decided to pull out some ratio analysis on the XLP and NVDA.
XLP/NVDA
Some stuff we need to consider:
Note the red trend line connecting the lows .. it’s a perfect fit. Certainly suggests the “ratio” is about to rise which means, in the past, some heavy weight for the NASDAQ and I imagine the overall market. Hmmmm …
Overlaid on top of the ratio (blue line) is the NASDAQ composite … take a peak at how it reacted when the ratio rose … except for one time during the 2010-2012 timeframe, it rose and so did the market. That’s pretty much it … of late, it’s “timed” the NASDAQ pretty well.
When we add up the 20 year trend line support that sure looks like it wants to hold and the ratio starts rising – the NASDAQ hasn’t necessarily been bullish during these times now, has it?
Spent some time on JNK today/tonight and tried some square outs in both calendar days and planets and blah blah blah. Even pulled out the Pythagorean ABC^2. To no avail .. then, I thought I’m “curve fitting it” so I just started to do some geometry.
I’ve been sketching before I meditate based on Robert Edward Grants recommendation .. it’s pretty trippy. As you square the circle and then step back and throw some flower of life on top and then, what the heck, throw Metatrons Cube into the mix and … well … you start to see creation in an amazingly beautiful way. The perfect – form, balance and proportion.
So, using the dark blue arrow and the orange arrow near the bottom – that’s it – we were able to create a time cycle … that was from the Vesica Pisces. Then, we were able to create the “past trend channel.” I didn’t work from left to right .. I went from the Orange Radius, the Orange Circle and then created the first triangle that is too the far right. And, that’s when the trend lines/boxes were created working back up right to left. And, I’ll be darn … it WAS THE TREND CHANNEL and just follow the market in the trendlines that were created from simple squares … amazing.
Why is this important?
As I’ve blogged before – we can make a comparison to JNK BONDS GOING UP UP UP to “risk on” and JNK BONDS GOING DOWN TO “risk off” and the risk is minimized by the institutions. I monitor them … they are very important.
So, here’s the daily (artistry removed 🙂 )
it’s showing a pretty important set of trend lines …for sure. but, as I state on the chart, which way is it going to blow?
now, interestingly, take a peak of JNK w/ the S&P 500 overlaid on top of it:
not immediately obvious .. but if you look at times when junk bonds were toppingyou would see some resistance or bumps and the market could continue higher, the junk bonds would kind of stall and shuck and jive BUT when they sold off, the market was soon thereafter.
So … what I don’t like is that the JNK bonds have not rallied like the others times and, in fact, “most” of the time, when they rallied there was a big monthly “spike” or “wick” from a candlestick perspective. Seriously, I think this is an important point. If we take at look at the first low on the chart to the far left you will see multiple monthly candles leaving a wick/spike before pretty strong rallies .. now just work left to right as we see the monthly wicks that resulted in a rally for the Junk Bonds .. allowing the market to relentlessly drive higher. But, this time … just saying .. where is the wick? where is the rally? if we take a look at how ALL the rallies started you will see the wick present and the subsequent rally. Not this time.
Certainly looks like JNK BONDS should get going pretty quickly to keep the party rolling. Else, we break that daily neckline I think it’s going to hard pressed to be long equities.
So, just keep watching that daily trendline convergence on JNK bond if you want an “outside the squawk box” objective look at the health of the market.
PS – Technical Analysis 101. This chart has lower highs and until this last “bounce” it had lower lows since 2010.
PUNCH LINE: does the S&P 500 have enough gas in its tank to explode higher and bring it’s pal, the JNK BONDS, with em’? Or, do they both look like it’s been a great run and they are just going to roll over and go blehhhhhh ….
Been holding onto these AAPL charts for a while until they approached the level. This certainly looks like a freight train for higher BUT you know, nothing like the top of a circle to pause / stop it in its tracks.
I will not be shorting AAPL at this level but will find it interesting to see if this stops this freight train. If/when it blows thru the top of the circle, the 1.27 extensions looms …
Some fun waves this AM … that’s really all that is important. 🙂
Finished – somewhat – moving into the new rental out here in San Diego. (I REFUSE TO BUY OUT HERE) … little bit brain dead but “something” told me to take a look at crude oil futures and that bizarre low of -40 bucks. Could that low be harmonic?
Of course not .. well, shoot, it was:
So .. what the heck are we looking at:
Crude Oil Monthly – LOG (key, these are percentage moves) since 1984. Couldn’t get anymore data that that.
The 1.3348 is a ratio (Perfect 4th) for the equal octave scale of music.
1.3348AB = CD and the extension from the “old” all time low was, yes, 1.3348.
A good technique to use is to look at the last MAJOR retracement and see what that number was … in this case .749. TILT … well take 1/1.3348 and we get .749. The market did, in fact, give us a clue. Pretty wild …
The dashed blue move down? .786 the blue measured move …
The move up to the old all time high? 1.1892 which is the ratio for the “minor 3rd”
Last, and this was the “kicker” for me … using the open/close after the negative spike low … the high at 130 was exactly equal to that measured move. Nice …
Anyway, just bored so thought I would cruise the charts.
As we have discussed on this blog – I don’t track nor do I know ANYTHING about the fundamentals driving the EV market. I probably should as I have my hands in a “data norming” technology that is using Unreal Engine 5 to create the “EV Metaverse” but, other than I really don’t.
That being said – the thesis – TSLA IS GOING TO NEW HIGHS remains intact.
What will stop it .. MAJOR RESISTANCE 257-268.
Other than that .. IF (the big IF) TSLA respects that level and pulls back THEN we need to think of adding and getting long.
I continue to pick up The 32nd Jewel by Connie Brown. I dust it off and continue down the rabbit hole. What has been happening of late is I’ll get about 10 pages (no kidding) into a section and then something pops up in the writing and … down the rabbit hole I go, again. Most recently it has been helping, a lot, to follow Mr. Robert Edward Grant. He might not know it – OK, high probability he doesn’t – but his information has (amazingly ;)) been perfect for when I get “stuck” in The 32ndJewel.
Today, I was going BACK to the subject of “Lattice Diagrams” and came across the “leading and lagging” market chapter. It’s a wonderful chapter to dust off the basics and look at something that you haven’t researched or analyzed in a while.
What drew my attention was the discussion about China and the Shanghai Composite. In a nutshell, China is a “leader” w/in the global financial trends. It’s not hard to imagine that Australia, India and South Africa all depend on China.
Additionally, if you have been following this blog for a while, you can see/understand the Canadian and Australia correlation. Then, it’s known (not going to say widely) that the TSX (Canada) leads the S&P.
So what is China doing?
Well, on page 36 of The 32nd Jewel she gives a count that shows the Shanghai in a bearish “C” wave which portends to lower Shanghai which means the dominoes fall to the bears …folks, trust me here, you want Ms. Brown counting waves … she is, without a doubt one of the best in the world. So, took her count and I’ve added the 2. I’m staying away from a large multi year triangle thesis, for now. However, if we do break ABOVE 3750 BEFORE breaking below the trendline and the .786 it’s game on for the bulls.
For now, this is the count that appears to be the highest probability.
KEEP AN EYE ON THE SHANGHAI .. then, of course, the All Ordinaries (Australia), the Canadian TSX, the German DAX and the S&P500.
Took a peek at NVDA tonight and what came to my eye was the “look” of the “last” big move into a high from a measured move perspective and, yup, there it was – almost exactly equal to the length of the last move.
Honestly, I saw that but was “head faked” by the gigantic candle that brought us here so I used the all time low for the ABCD projection that is a little higher. But, tonight, it was the “shooting star” like nature of the candle that caught my eye. So, there it was and I, sorry folks, but I blew it. I did have the 1.27 extension on the chart and that “can” or “should” provide some resistance but, like anything, the level takes on more significance when you have a projection into that extension level. So, take that for what it’s worth.
Now, my “feel” is that we hit some resistance and perhaps a pullback and then up into the larger ABCD. That scenario, for now, would workout if that old trend line that got blown thru holds as support and NVDA bounces and goes up up up … this thesis is thawing and getting really cold if we get a weekly close below that old trend line.
I have a long term monthly count in my head that has a pullback/pause coming and then continuing higher. Yes, I think this is going higher. However, need it to get thru two things first:
Trend Line: note the long term log trend line from the first high 20 years ago the last major high (both regions denoted by the blue arrows) caused a pullback to occur … this trend line “should” at least offer some resistance. We blow thru it and this thing is in Zone 5 afterburner.
Right near the projected trend line resistance is the ABCD from the low down at .37 cents. The 1.27 extension “should” provide “some” resistance. The target for now: 444-454.
NO I’m not advocating a short here unless you have HUGE “fill in the blank” – I’m seeking an area of resistance that will enable a pause/pullback so I can manage risk and not try to get into a run away market something I have proven – again and again – to not be good at and, in fact, where a majority of my losses have come from. Trust me, I’ve had my fair share – BIG TIME. Maybe you have, will or won’t (it can be the “won’t” …usually isn’t but why not?) suffer losses but for me – I lose money trying to chase. PERIOD. So, I’ll see a level to try and get in IF a pullback ever occurs. For now … watch that 444-454 area.
Also, I expected the volume to be much higher or even spiking but, with this much thrust, this high, the volume is normal to a tad bit latent. Hmmmm …coupled w/ the RSI isn’t overbought or showing any divergences. I think this thing has some legs but, again, I’m watching this rocket ship from my TV or staring up in the sky.
For those who have an e-ticket on this one .. hope these targets / resistance areas will help you manage risk.
Speaking of losses … we had a saying when I used to fly w/ my trusty (loved everyone of them OBTW) pilots … when it comes to gear down landings, there are those who WILL and those who HAVE. NEVER those who WON’T.
It’s OK to lose money …it sucks, I know, but it’s part of the game.
Well, folks, the SELL PATTERN on JPM has worked so far and…that’s not good folks. I REALLY DO NOT care what your political affiliation is …in my simple mind you are a HUMAN and I AM connected to YOU.
So … this is a hard post. We are on the verge of a really important moment … and, frankly, I’m just going to say it on this blog:
KEEPING THE POLITICS OUT OF IT:
If JPM BUY PATTERN works – up up an way. The “metaverse” of the “real” world just continues to weave into Idiocracy.
IF JPM BUY PATTERN FAILS – it’s time folks. Stock up on REAL TANGIBLE ITEMS and be a good HUMAN …
Take a look at USO below … certainly looks like 5 waves down and , every wave was symmetrical and the EXACT same percentage move. Pretty crazy .. that’s why I love LOG charts folks.
W/ the 5 waves down complete and the pretty big move afterward would look to be a BUYer w/ a nice pullback lower on USO. Could be a nice long run higher on this one …
This is a long term monthly count from JPM that stretches back 50+ years.
Folks, certainly doesn’t “feel” like a 5 wave move in JPM is complete but the count doesn’t break any rules so … 5 waves complete?
Here’s the daily chart below – calling attention to the island reversals and the island reversals that could be at play – right now. Here’s the last post on it: https://bartscharts.com/2023/05/04/jpm-may-04-2023/
Well the count will either be correct or it won’t (yea I know, dugh) but .. here’s the 60 minute GART SELL PATTERN that hit so IF this pattern works THEN JPM should start back down which will put pressure on all the banks. IF this PATTERN FAILS then expect the daily .618 and .786 above to get attacked and, potentially send JPM off to new highs.
But, for now, pay attention the SELL PATTERN present on JPM:
If your a technician, you can’t help but notice the very long (month ish) consolidation occurring in the bond market.
Today’s price action appears to want and break the support that has been around since March 15th. As you can see above, we do some ‘basic’ projections and right when the neckline breaks there is minor support (blue projection arrows) and then the BIG support w/ the blue rectangle present. A lot of math coming into that level. I believe that is the crucial level.
As you can see from the weekly chart above, the “time” of the corrections have been pretty symmetrical so from a timing perspective certainly looks like this “bounce” has run it’s course for one more leg down.
From the ATH, it’s a pretty clear count and I’m labeling this as a 4 completing/completed and another leg down (rates go UP in this case) into the .618 from the 1981 low (40+ years ago) in bond prices. Note the blue measured move above .. that was the largest correction in 40+ years. We take harmonics from that and you can see the square root of 3 harmonic nailed the low precisely. We have a .618 retrace, 1.618 extension, trend line coming from the low in 1981 and a harmonic of the largest prior correction.
That level is a good level to BUY – if we get down there.
Supposedly … who knows what is true these days .. 1000’s of banks are underwater. OK … whatever.
Here’s when we look at the CHART and we ask should we BUY or SELL or DO NOTHING.
KRE sliced thru the first “potential support” and now we approach, what I think, is the KEY to the KRE. Here’s why:
58.76 – if you look at the purple measured moves you will see that EVERY major swing down has been 58.76%. I’ve used the “close” in 2008 as I’m not sure if that is a good print or not .. either way, that measured move nails EVERY LOW
1.618 projection lands … right at the 58.76 correction.
.707 (square root of 2 = 1.4142 and 1/1.4142 = .707) just a little above this level
Long term LOG trend line right at .. all the above
Note the VOLUME – is that a capitulation spike in selling volume?
RSI sitting at the crucial support level for the ENTIRE bullish move since 2009
Nobody in their right mind is looking to BUY the banks but, then again, I can guarantee you NOBODY was looking to buy in March 2009. Maybe there was someone? Perhaps … me?
DATE STAMPED 3 MR 2009. (March 3, 2009)
Here’s why:
So … watch the THRUST coming into this level, maybe wait for a signal reversal candle (bullish).
What I can say is IF we blast thru this level (certainly “feels” like we should) then, yeah, a lot of banks are looking at some tough times and 28 and then 21 are the next targets.
HUGE support from 62-77 … the .618 is from the all time low, we have the long term trend line from 50+ years ago and the “next” measured move correction (dashed red arrow – remember this is log scale), also take note of the two ABCD projections (orange and yellow) smacking into the 3.142 (PI) projection, square root of 2 (1.4142) extension and the square root of 1.618 (1.27) extension.
75-78 is pretty important …
Last, a GUIDELINE and NOT a rule is that corrections like to target the “4th wave of a lesser degree” and you can see that comes right in where .. yup, our target zone.
So, from a balance, form and proportion this correction doesn’t look done or over BUT that zone should be some nice support.
NOTE: looking at it on a monthly, looks like we might have a three drives to a bottom setting up …
The EURO is smacking against some SERIOUS trendline resistance that goes back to 2000 and 1985 (synthetically).
Remember, the Euro wasn’t adopted until January 1, 1999. So, the grey box below is the “synthetic” version of the EURO w/ the Deutschmark and other currencies providing a “continuation” into the time frame of Bretton Woods.
Either way, pay attention to the “orange measured moves” as that looks to be a pretty good “beat” for price action. IF the EURO blows thru these trendlines then the next target certainly looks to be 1.15.
On the podcast “Trendlines over Headlines” I discussed how measured moves can also be used as time components. Took a few seconds to show this concept by taking the Orange and Blue measured moves and flipped them to horizontal to create the time component of the measured moves.
Folks … look at the chart below. From the 2000 low, you can see that the “measured move in time” was pretty accurate. Now, mind you, this is a MONTHLY chart so we have some “time” for the cycle to hit. But, you can get it down to the day and the hour. Something I’m working on … not quite there, yet. But, I just “like” the measured moves ….use them.
PRICE = TIME. They are the same thing on a chart …
Here’s the creation of the Vesica Pisces for the EURO. For no other reason than to test it out, I’m going to use that first synthetic drop as the “seed”
Now, mind you, this isn’t something that you can really invest/trade off of but, for me at least, it’s a good exercise every now and then. 🙂
the Vesica Pisces is the manifestation for the creation of life and is where the numerical equivalents of the square roots of 1-5 come from … it’s inherently nested in Metatrons cube (Archangel Metatron is – according to legend – responsible for the geometry of creation. Mr. Robert Edward Grant has done AMAZING work showing how this happens and has recently PROVEN that the 3 pyramids were actually constructed at the same time w/ Metatrons cube in mind .. it’s amazing.
Anyway, the market vibrates and is harmonic and abides by natural law. Just like everything … our job is to find that “beat” and “vibration” and then give it a whirl. One last, note, you can move the vectors horizontal to show the TIME component. I would do that but .. need to go do some “work.”
Cheers and make it a great day.
Every PRICE move .. based on the Vesica Pisces. Believe it … or not.
The thesis on the Transports is the ATH is a “BIG TOP.” Thus far, we haven’t really broken down that hard so only TIME will tell.
We like when .382 / .618 retracements are on top of each other and we have that a little lower in the high 10K’s and low 11k’s. This a HUGE target zone for the Transports. IF they slice thru that level then they “should” go down to the ABCD level and then attack the 50 year old trend line .. we break those levels and the corrective drop target (likes to target the previous wave 4 of a lesser degree – guideline NOT a rule) into 2K is certainly a reality. I’m blogging about this now because I have no earthly idea what would cause such a thump .. let’ face it, that’s pretty much a breakdown of the transportation sector, probably globally.
I’m going to stick w/ this count, more than likely getting proven wrong – certainly hope so …
from a technical perspective pay attention to:
obviously, the count …
the orange trend line (log) from the monthly, weekly – it appears that is what is holding it up
the “nested” head and shoulders .. breaking the neckline AND the orange log trend line should start this lower
.382 from the 90 year low 0f 13.43 is 11,277
the BUY pattern is down around 8986-9396 –
net, net we have two very important zones of support and then the looming trendline from 50 years ago.
hope, being a strategy, this analysis is COMPLETELY WRONG
Pay attention to this PATTERN on JPM daily. The past 3 major tops have gapped down and the last two have created island reversals. IF (the BIG IF) we gap down today and leave and “island” then this could be very troubling for the banks and, historically, has led to a pretty big down move in JPM.
No idea if that will happen in the coming days but, again, the TIME is perfect in it’s relation to the the all time high PATTERN and the price is off just a wee bit .. essentially we have the same exact same set up as the high .. now, TIME will tell.
on a monthly level, the “blue measured move” certainly looks to be harmonic w/ JPM. the most recent high in/around mid 140’s was exactly equal to the blue measured move … again, keep an eye on JPM as it’s appears to be the big dog helping out the troubling regional and smaller banks.
If (again the BIG IF) we gap down in JPM to create an island then this big dog could be signaling a much bigger credit crunch on the way.
Basically, it’s the rate that banks charge each other to move a “shi&t ton” of money around overnight. It’s HUGELY important .. in fact, Mr. Martin Armstrong picked up some LIBOR issues around August before COVID and it was fascinating to watch this play out – these banks are truly the gorillas juggling dynamite in the cage we jump into trading the financial markets. Oh, forgot to mention, the dynamite is lit!
I just decided to play around w/ the LIBOR chart and just started counting … now, as many of you know, my EWT counting is truly like my golf game. Sometimes, smacking it right down the middles and other times, the ball is simply no where to be seen or found. My swing (and counting) can get that bad … also, just like when you ask someone their score and they look back and start counting w/ their finger you know they are giving you a “fake news” score! So, if I get a sub wave of a sub wave of a sub wave into the counting then I’m probably just making it up. With all that being said, I really just try not to break any rules and get on the side of the MAIN wave. I LOOK for corrective patterns as they are the most reliable way to enter into a position. When we have a PATTERN and an EWT count that fits then probability does become quite high. But, you simply never know …
NO rules are broken below … sure looks like the LIBOR RATE has/is bottoming and that means, eventually, the rate the banks charge each other is going to get a LOT more expensive … could be tomorrow, could be years from you but I think this is showing a pretty clear 5 waves down so the next “trending” move is going to be: UP.
hard to believe that I derived the targets shown above below in January. pretty crazy.
what was important about today was AMZN performed a calendar day square out. in the world we live in (i.e. if your reading this blog) PRICE and TIME are the SAME THING. PRICE=TIME and TIME=PRICE. So, a PRICE of $50 dollars will spin off TIME cycles of 50 minutes, hours, weeks, days, etc. etc.
the famous WD Gann said you can square out a HIGH, LOW or a RANGE. In this case, the RANGE from the ATH to the most recent January low was 108 points. We take 108 points (note – you can move planets helio or geo based on this square out and you might want to try it … 😉 and convert that to 108 calendar days. that was today …. from the low on January 09, 2023 we add 109 calendar days and that day was today.
My issue (we all have them) is I found the square out but the pattern was SO FAR AWAY that I was a little confused. WE LIKE TO SEE SQUARE OUTS IN TIME WITH CORRESPODING BUY OR SELL PATTERNS…. so what to do.
Well, well, well … today was an earnings call for AMZN (had no idea) and guess what after hours it went up and tagged the pattern on the day of the square out.
GO FIGURE … no idea what the earnings were or weren’t.
All eyes remain on the USD. we have a large target looming a little lower.
That being said, we are approaching a very critical time from a cyclic perspective. We have also completed a “valid” SELL pattern on the SPX. So, we either start down early this week or we blast thru the pattern higher into more targets.
Either way, I DO NOT think that the market is done going down. We have more waves lower … the timing will be dependent on the US DOLLAR and the PATTERNS present.
Well, the BUY PATTERN shown in the last update hit, went thru it a bit, and then started back up. If you look on this two hour chart, you can see that 5 waves up are complete from the low at (2) so, IF that (2) is correct, then expect 173-174 to hold and TSLA continues on in a 5th wave. Yes, know this sounds crazy but calling it like I see it, for now.
If we lose that lower 173-174 level then I’ll seek the “daily gap zone” as the next level to get LONG TSLA. Lot’s of math in that area …
So, either way, believe there isn’t any evidence, yet, that TSLA will continue it’s march higher either from a little lower or at the “green daily gap zone”
Lot’s of fundamental information out there about China and sanctions and blah blah. Something about semi-conductors and blah blah.
So, took a peak at the PHLX Semiconductor Index and it smashed into a pretty nice SHORT PATTERN ZONE (abcd, 4 ratios, gap (small), other stuff) and, just doing some back of the envelope math, if you take the square root of the high and round up you get 64 and, guess what, 64 weeks ago was the top on January 04, 2022.
All this means is the PATTERN is complete/completing. IF/WHEN (?) we blow thru this level to the upside, then it’s a failed pattern and the SOX should run to the .786 ish and the “red crossover” a little higher and then to new highs.
Well, the pain cave continues as I’m keeping my position and searching for a “low” in UNG. I’ve updated the count because recent price action has gone below the low made in 2021 (UNG) but, as you can see, the futures has not broken below the low. UNG and the futures “try” to go in concert but, as you can tell, they aren’t a “perfect” one for one match.
Man, to think I was holding this puppy up at 34 and ‘expecting’ a pullback … a complete wipeout, and now a losing position to boot? This is an example of horrible investing. Period. But, I’m sticking with it as I do see a low approaching or here.
I LIKE the MONTHLY MEASURED MOVE PATTERN THAT IS SHOWN BELOW. ITS A PERFECT MATCH IN PRICE AND TIME. But, that doesn’t mean it won’t fail, of course, but these MONTHLY MEASURED MOVES don’t usually fail. In fact, I’ve really never seen it happen. No kidding.
The UNG chart shows another (my counting is like my golf game, remember?) valid count and we are completely a “b” wave that broke the low but it “should” be bottoming here or nowish … there’s a subwave count I’m watching which I will update depending on what happens over the coming days/weeks. But, either way, the next major move “should” be UP for UNG.
We are tickling the 1.05946AB=CD and the 1.732 extension from ‘a’ (purple) … basically an ABCD into a 1.618/1.732 extension SHOULD provide support for the next move up .. BUT, it doesn’t have to.
Some extremely important “polarity” principles are being tested w/ the EUR.USD currency pair.
The principle is that “former support” will become resistance or vice versa. In his case, we have the low from 1985 and the low from 2000 showing former support that, now, SHOULD be stiff resistance.
If we power thru this level then the .618 retracement (note measured move orange arrow) looms as the next big resistance level.
Michael Jenkins taught me how to look for Mirror Image Foldbacks. (www.stockcyclesforecast.com) – he also showed me how they are planetary in nature … essentially, whatever planet or pair (s) of planets came together at the folkback point, they will also move “out” from that point causing the same pattern to appears as a “mirror image”.
This one is pretty nice in form and time. Note the TIME component from the “foldback point” hit today and is equal. Additionally, take a peak at the “form” of the moves from the foldback point .. yup, fractals of each other.
So, go long SQQQ and wouldn’t hold it too much below the blue line as the time component on this one looks almost perfect so my “thinking” (don’t think it hurts the team Bart” is we will know pretty soon. Oh, additionally, foldbacks like this fail when/where. MOST of the time, at the foldback point. So … it will work in/around here OR not.
Lot’s of volume in this security … interesting to see the volume go up and down ….
Folks … can’t objectively say what “it” is but something is afoot at the circle K …
Whatever it is or isn’t we do have a pretty good line in the sand.
The chart above is “log scale” … take a look at:
Measured move PERCENTAGE CORRECTION (red arrow)
Percentage ABCD (blue arrows)
Trend line
Multiple ratios …
Let’s call that level our line in sand. If we take the chart and make it “normal” scaling that level is important and maybe a little lower. Watch that .786 retracement level!
Today, monitor and watch – CLOSELY the BUY PATTERN on the US Dollar Index. That level is in/around 102.50-102.70. As you can see below, I have INVERTED the NYSE Index to give a flavor for the pivots in the equities and how they correspond to the US Dollar.
From the perspective of the S&P 500, let’s see what happens at the opening … if we take out the 3956 handle then moves to the upper two targets shown below are realistic …
I am using UNG as a proxy for Natural Gas futures.
Here’s the picture on Nat Gas (hourly) continuous futures:
As you can see, we are about to hit or have hit some very important support. An ABCD, 1.27 extension and the .786. We are still “well above” the very important cycle low we ID’d above. From the futures perspective, my thesis still stands that we are, potentially, at a VERY major low for Natural Gas for years to come.
That picture is a little bit more murkier when we look at UNG:
It would be nice to keep UNG above 7.00 … the KEY to this entire pattern is the Natural Gas Futures. Remember, we are looking at a near perfect MONTHLY pattern that has been exact in PRICE and TIME.
And, as I have said, multiple times in the blogs above – the thesis is wrong or on thing ice w/ a WEEKLY close below the lows.
Perspective … we made a higher low today. Let’ that sink in …
Now, my stance is to remain bearish and I do believe we are in the very early stages of a smashing wave 3 and, add fuel to the fire, it’s a “3rd of a 3rd” wave down. Wonderful …
Near term, the market DID NOT go up to our target up around 3956 but it did smack right into the trendline giving us the polarity principle.
Two scenarios:
Bounce not complete and we gap up and above or move strongly into and thru the gap shown and finish the a-b-c sequence
We did a “minor” wave 1 down and finished a “minor” wave 2 and down we go … wouldn’t be surprised to see if it closes the gap tomorrow on the open and then down …
As expected we are rallying after completing 5 waves. If you take a peak at the (2) around 4077 that is the beginning of the wave that we are retracing. Take note, we could go all the way up to that level and still fail and the count would be valid.
Also, take note that this is only a 15 minute chart .. I’m down on a lower timeframe because I feel confident in the “big 2” at 4196 is a correct label so I’m “down in the weeds” trying to ascertain where this bounce will stall and then start back down.
My bias remains bearish and I see this as a short term bounce that needs to be shorted.
First level to take a crack at it is 3957:
ABCD – dashed red arrows
ABCD slams right into “measured move” (red triangle)
So here’s the deal folks, I had NO IDEA that there was a banking crisis brewing when I put the GART SELL on the banks – it’s just a pattern. And, guess what, I’m trying NOT to pay attention to the ongoing machinations of the Federal Reserve, or some Twitter expert, or my buddy. I’m just looking at the CHART. In that PRICE and TIME we have the ENTIRE STORY UNFOLDING WITHOUT BIAS AND, FRANKLY, WITHOUT A CARE.
Every emotion, every thought, every decision, every hope and every dream is shown in the candle. Period. Dot. End of sentence.
The update above found a rather important support zone. Important, as my long time readers will understand, means a LOT of math comes together and its “logical” that a bounce or support is found. Cough Cough … sliced thru it without a care.
As we used to talk about flying fighters … (man I miss those days sometimes) .. the “goods” and the “others” so in the realm of that – when we slice thru that important of a support zone. I’ll use what I used back when I started this bank blog (unknowingly in the midst of one of the biggest banking failures ever) – something ain’t right at the circle K.
At this time, I AM NOT advocating to BUY the BANKS. I’m just looking for support as this things falls out of the sky.
From the last post, you can see that we have taken out the “largest measured move” correction (the 2020 COVID scare) since 2009. I’ve updated the TIME and PRICE of the largest correction on the chart during 2007-2009. The price is 45.90 and the TIME is out to early next year. (just putting the last one in perspective).
Tomorrow, 78.26 is important (1.618 extension) but it sure looks like it wants to get down to the high 60’s or the abcd around 60.
Of course we will have machinations up and down but … that’s some serious liquidation folks.
That gap down was a bummer … but, we have found support and bounced nicely. As you can see above, any move higher will run into the wall of China above (big gap) and probably fail the first or second time. But, obviously, we want it to close up and above that entire area so that is the immediate resistance.
The “ideal” PATTERN we would like is the a-b-c EWT corrective sequence that will set up a GART BUY.
You know I don’t like to do the “could have would have should have” but there is some nice little coloring techniques/tricks in the chart above so let’s take a peak.
First thing is to note the ABCD (blue arrows) into the low .. then, we have both a .707 and .786 retracement level with a 1.618 extension. I also (which I like to do, alot) extended off the last low before the march to the high and that was a nice ratio from the equal octave scale of music : 1.3348. Then, one last, take note of the “gap area” because that defined the measured moves into the low. No kidding … then, those orange measured moves set up what? A three drives to a bottom BUY pattern. (blue triangles).
The support/rally that was found today by the market was “expected” as we could see 5 waves down.
Now the BIG question is was the high today the end of the wave 2 or do we rally once more. I would like to see another rally so we can PROJECT the upcoming POTENTIAL inflection point.
Note, the 2 arrows show IMPORTANT support of the emini if the pattern fails.
Expect a rally the next couple days …perhaps a slight gap down but eventually support and then a rally should occur. Futures tonight are already providing that “commentary” so I’d expect a larger than “normal” rally due to the world is coming unglued (it is) but you know what I’m saying … “everyone” expected a blood bath tonight when the futures opened.
5 waves down complete … expect a rally into the circled area “to start” .. why “to start” – well – I would expect a large rally tomorrow if everyone has been told everything is OK and that circled area is the area of the 4th wave of a lesser degree so that’s an initial target.
But, as I typed below on the chart – the entire rally from (2) or 4080’s can be retraced and this count remains valid.
So, I’m guilty as charged in thinking this is an “easy” trade I’m shorting the market because it’s all going to come unglued !!!! TAKE THAT and you wake up and the entire thing has slammed against you. Been there done that and ..don’t everyone want to be there again.
Taking the banks and all the real stuff that are important away … Folks looks like we just completed wave 1 down of the “c’ Wave or Wave III (not sure one it is yet) and therefore a rather large rally could happen. WE WANT TO BE SHORT AT THE END OF THIS RALLY!
Hope the rally comes and it’s real and my count is completely wrong … hope is a strategy, you know?
Very important support comes in for GS a little lower in/around the 320’s and then 300’s. We lose those levels then expect GS to breathe down to a VERY NICE BUY PATTERN from 243-247.
That buy PATTERN is a classic.
ABCD, .618 retrace, 1.27 extension and then the “crossover” structure .. dare I say, it’s a near perfect set up.
Which, like I always mention … can and does fail so that is the line in the sand for GS and, potentially, the entire banking system. (?)
I try to make it clear on the chart below that I just “don’t have a clue” if the ATH on the S&P 500 is THE HIGH or A HIGH … I don’t have the data and, frankly, I’ve seen very amazing professionals say it is THE HIGH and also say A HIGH. Both, totally possible. NOBODY KNOWS except the Architect !!!
With that backdrop, you can see that this chart is a “bullish conclusion” of this correction and support shall be found and off we go.
I would hold my powder dry to go long … remember, in this case we have a 3rd wave of the C wave starting and that’s UGLY so we’ll have plenty of time to get long and, as you can see, using our measured moves you can see we have a nice thumping coming lower.
So, there we have 3232ish level w/ 4 ratio’s and a little higher a 3 drives to a bottom (orange arrows) and the percentage decline from 2020. the 2950 ish is our ABCD (black arrows) and a nice overlap of .618 and .5 from the 2009 low.
One of those two should hold … and then, guess we’ll just have to wait and see. I’m not really looking forward to that …
One of these amazing professionals will be proven correct and they both have the guts to make “the call” … my call will be 1/ trying to get short into the zone shown (I’ve been stopped out twice trying to short this market but my analysis has been spot on … yup.) and then 2/ stepping up to BUY to test the “trend is your friend till it ends” thesis.
If our levels work, then were long for a multi year run into new highs.
If they get blown thru and fail either like a hot knife thru butter or provide some support but then, after a week or so, are taken out THEN things are really in the “other” category of the good/other grade category.
Here is the Banking Index PATTERN that we needed to watch and monitor. Folks, banks are everything. PERIOD. They lead us UP and they lead us DOWN. Something isn’t right at the circle K.
All things being equal, the wave that started today needs to finish 5 waves so I would step aside and let the banks pave the way … the BIG support is 83-86. Why? The red arrow is the largest price correction in the banking index since 2009. What happens at that level will be very key.
Next levels are the measured move down around 56-60 and the BIG ONE at 45-46.
Note, measured move correction takes us down another 10 bucks .. that multi-year bearish divergence has me exercising CAUTION before adding or buying any JNJ at these levels.
Let’s see what happens at 142 and the key trend line …
The move off the low down around 100 has been EXTREMELY powerful and that “USUALLY” (note quotes and all CAPS) lends to another LONG entry in/around the .382.
We have a LOT of math coming in from 170-175:
6 ratios
1.618 abcd
fundamental frequency target
abcd (blue arrows)
so, it appears we need to give the 170-175 BUY a shot. don’t get married to it … perhaps go in smaller than the 100 level but this is a “first chance” and from a “holding” mindset IF (always the BIG IF) my count is correct we are moving to new highs in TSLA … TBD and only TIME will tell.
A case can be made for a 100+ year triangle is complete and inflation, while pulling back now, has begun a bull market? Yes, I know that sounds crazy .. but, either way, would hate to see a close above the that upper down sloping trend line …
The credit markets are a very important measure to monitor/watch w/ regard to equity volatility and strength. A correlation exists where deterioration w/in the Junk Bond market usually leads to or portends to weakness in the equity market and/or an increase in volatility.
We have a VERY important pattern appearing on the hourly JNK BOND ETF chart below … it’s a “near perfect” Gartley Sell Pattern. The two red arrows are showing the expected levels for resistance and, quite possibly, the beginning of the next leg down in JNK BONDS. If we get a strong close above the 93.71 level then I would consider this PATTERN FAILED. Above the old high at 94.84 and I suspect a strong and continued rally in equities.
This is one of those big flashing lights to monitor over the coming week …
Relative strength REALLY helps us understand the institutional flow …using basic numerator / denominator we place one security over another (it can be anything liquidly traded) and if the chart goes UP the NUMERATOR is “stronger” from a relative strength perspective and if the chart goes DOWN then the DENOMINATOR is “stronger” from a relative strength perspective.
Now, if entire market is being liquidated and the “relative strength” chart is going UP it probably means the denominator is really getting smoked and the numerator might be just getting flesh wounds. It doesn’t mean it won’t go up or go down .. it might not go up or down as fast or as slow as what its being compared to …
I like it because it helps me look for strength … IBM is showing an interesting relative strength chart:
Looks like we have some “measured moves” above … shocking, I know. As you can see, we have a nice harmonic in the red “down” arrows and, just for fun, wanted to show you the harmony pretty much across the board.
IBM, from a relative strength perspective certainly looks like it could have put in a low against the DOW. And, guess what, on a lower daily timeframe we have a PERFECT BUY PATTERN present:
Note, this BUY PATTERN lands right on top of a pretty big gap area so I do think it “should” (doesn’t mean it will !!!) offer support and a continuation of IBM’s outperforming the DOW. What happens when this occurs:
As you can see, when the ratio bottoms (makes sense) IBM goes UP UP and away …note, the BIG “liquidating” drop in the IBM/DJIA average didn’t have the same slope on the price chart. It went down, yes, but it wasn’t a knife falling. This is an example from the last pargraph.
So, here’s the chart from a while ago:
Couple takeaways, before the BIG PATTERN hit another had failed. We never know which ones work and which ones don’t … it’s all probability folks. Trust me, when you have two or three fail in a row after you have used a TON of tools and hours coming up w/ a level and then the next one appears you do have your doubts but TRADE WHAT YOU SEE NOT WHAT YOU THINK! Anyhoo .. the lower “bigger” pattern worked nicely! See “buy pattern complete” to the left below.
Now, as you can see we have interesting technical issues occurring:
Stair Steps: not a swing low has been broken on the way up .. higher lows. Michael Jenkins (www.stockcyclesforecast.com) taught me that 1-2 swing lows broken is “ok” but if a 3rd is broken, get the hell out … this coming correction will, maybe (?) test the swing low around 115. We’ll see ..
Since the low back in early 2020, the corrections have been, pretty much, the red triangles. I’m using a triangle to show the “price” and “time” component of the corrections and “red” because it’s going down. See how that works! LOLOLOLOL. If (and it is THE big IF) we continue w/ this rhythm then the next buy isn’t until May’ish 2023. We have time …
From the high … it is certainly “easy” (relative I know) to count 5 waves down so expect a “bounce” to occur and then one more wave down to buy. I can see that taking us into the May timeframe. Yeah?
So, it is going to be very important to watch the BUY pattern on the ratio and then compare where we are after we done a “bounce up-down” wave and then take a peak at the TIME (May perhaps) and IBM might be ready for the next leg higher.
Measured Moves are the most underutilized YET most POWERFUL tool in our toolbox. I think people don’t use them because they clutter their charts w/ lagging, coincident indicators … moving averages, bollinger bands, oscillators, and 1000’s of other tools. Do they work? SURE .. but, just think about it, ALL of the techniques and tools we use as chartists (even the esoteric stuff) is all contained in what? THE MEASURED MOVE.
This measured move is so nice BECAUSE it’s EXACT in both PRICE and TIME.
Add that to the count shown and the PATTERN present we have a very high probability trade. Right now, we are only risking a dollar. Trust me, we have time get into this move but the longer you wait, the more your risk will increase.
This analysis is wrong and would stop out with a WEEKLY close below 7.00.
Other “proxies” are showing amazing measured move synergy … in this case, from a percentage perspective using log scale.
note, added the measured move (mm) + .618*mm to equal first leg down
Here is the “final” count I’m going w/ in regard to UNG.
Let’s add this up …
Futures contract measured move – exact from a MONTHLY SCALE
UNG and BOIL percentage measured moves – exact
The 1.68179 extension hit after 233 calendar days … a Fibonacci harmonic
ABCD hit as the same TIME the extension pattern hit
The “count” on the way up violates no rules …
Note, because the all time low clearly went thru the prior low we CANNOT label this as wave 2. The form/structure sure looks like a “B” wave …
Net-Net … this has all the markings of a VERY powerful beginning of a 2+ year move and right now the risk reward is 35:1.
It’s been a while since I blogged about Natural Gas. And, what a ride it has been …because those of you who have been following me for a while, know that I got into UNG around 9 bucks almost two years ago and -GUESS WHAT – I’m still holding it! Yes, probably the dumbest thing I ever done because I was up a NICE 5 figures and counted and watched precipitously as it just took it all back.
Again? Why?
Because when I bought the darn thing I “felt” or “knew” that this was going to be a MAJOR low in Natural Gas and I wanted to put REAL money at risk and basically ride a multi-year wave like I do surfing.
The thrill of the great waves – this run had it!
The beat down inside w/ the ice water fist to the face – yup!
No waves at all – sure.
So, guess what, I’m riding the waves of UNG for years …
In the next post on Natural Gas I’ll go into the count and the PATTERN that was present and all that. But, for now, just check this one out. I JUST saw this last night. No kidding, going to enjoy a little sun this AM before another deluge in San Diego and GET THIS – just an hour away from me (Julian) they are forecasting 10″ of SNOW. Going to be a wild weekend … a perfect time to do some charting and, ugh, taxes.
THE POWER OF THE MEASURED MOVE … not only is this MEASURED MOVE equal in PRICE it is EXACTLY EQUAL IN TIME.
Get LONG and look to leverage/ architect a position to expire in 2027 w/ a price target of 15-16 or…not.
I know this analysis might throw some of you … but, I truly LIVE by the Measured move and the potential here is somewhat analogous to this:
Congratulations to the Kansas City Chiefs. Man, what a game …well done NFL to a very entertaining and competitive event. Oh there was definitely the undertones that one would expect but, dare I say, they almost promoted THE diverse and amazing country of melting pots we are …? Maybe ?
Last, the commercials confused me a bunch. Hat tip to Breaking Bad but a lot of em’ I was left saying ” what are they trying to convey here?”
Of late, I have read and digested multiple books, episodes, podcasts, etc. of Mr. Robert Edward Grant. Folks, I encourage you to follow him and really try to understand the message he is speaking. Seriously ….
As such, I’ve taken up sketching (which I love) and squaring the circle and then adding the platonic solids and then realizing the a^2+b^2 = c^2 holds such vast and universal truths around the creation and manifestation of the universe that … I decided to just pull out the crayons and “prove” to myself the amazing harmony and geometry that exists in the markets and if WE (me included, trust me) are just PATIENT enough it will reveal itself and we will have the opportunity to manage risk and, potentially, extract money from the markets.
So, I typed in GOOGL and just started to draw … (mind you, I had never done this before, the charts are “real time” as I captured them at my leisure.
As I type this, now that its done, I can tell you that the harmony and geometry are amazing … and to think, we were taught this back in grade school.
How to draw an arc from three points ……
often times, 4.236 times the initial impulse move will prove to be R .. this time it worked and 2×4.236. WOW.pick three points – mine are the blue highlighted squares at/around the bottom leftusing basic geometry, create circles equal to the distance of each square. connect the lines ….at 1/2 the intersection price (290) draw an arc equal to the distance from 1/2 gravity to price lowthe “first” squarefrom the first square, create “fractals” of the gravity center square and continue …
Take note, anyone see the likeness of an “Adams Pitchfork?” The above is the REASON the Adams Pitchfork is such a powerful tool. It essentially makes the squares and the diagonals for you aligned with the first impulse move up or down …
Anyway, how does this help us trading? For me, it just reinforces the geometric and harmonic nature of any liquid instrument. Yes, I know that this is all “after the fact.” If you have been following me for a while you know most, if not all the time, I post “real time” or as “near as real time” as possible. Tonight, it was just an exercise to show me (and perhaps some of you) the geometrical and harmony of the market … that’s all.
GOOGL just finished a pretty smashing GART SELL and it’s been straight down SO .. I’m not looking to BUY anytime soon for GOOGL.
Last, sorry I missed that GART SELL. Just haven’t been watching “the Google” very much … no reason. Just haven’t …
Folks, trying NOT to be a massive BULL or a massive BEAR. Just patterns …
All the hype about the bull market continuing … whatever. The way I see it, we just completed the same measured move correction as the last time.
Strength thru 251 will make me rethink “another leg down” thesis but, for now, certainly appears that the Gold, Dollar, Euro, VIX, JNK, etc. etc. patterns are working …
I’ve blogged this before and I’ll blog this again – banks lead us UP and they lead us DOWN.
Below you can see a “pretty clear” 5 wave count UP in the Banking Index from the 2009 lows. We do have a slight overlap of Wave 4 and Wave 1 but I’m going to go for it as it’s not on “close” and the count fits/works.
What we have here is an “almost” perfect GARTLEY SELL PATTERN on the banks.
I saw @RyanDetrik tweet about the January effect today and I do trust and admirer his work … probability is saying that we have a STRONG year this year. I’m not there, yet.
I’m 100% prepared to throw in the count for a “next move is bearish” and just hit ctrl-alt-del and erase and take a look at it with fresh eyes.
That being said .. .the DSI on Gold is SPIKED HIGH for the bulls, we have an amazing BUY pattern on the VIX, sell PATTERNS on the Banks and JNK bonds inbound and the Euro/Dollar are both finishing /finished up 5 moves. Pullback or a resumption of the move down. I don’t know but I think this move u since October is on borrowed time …
Note – where have the banks been. W/ all this bullish talk they haven’t even made a .382 retracement, yet. Hmmmmm …
WATCH THIS LEVEL ON THE BANKS TOMORROW. A daily close ABOVE 115 and this market could be off to the races. Only TIME will tell …
5 waves complete … wave 1 = wave 5 (blue arrows) .. initial impulse wave natural log and/or square root 8 projection … ffrequency target (good stop out if it blows thru) …1.732 extension from of wave 3- 4 (note, wave 3 = 2.236 (square root of 5) ….
all this being said, this is 5 waves UP folks so the coming pullback is one we want to BUY … for now, that’s around (previous wave 4 of a lesser degree) in/around 1.05. we’ll just have to wait and see …
Line in the sand for me along the lines of the “bearish gold case” is that the red rectangle is an expanded flat. At times, the “c” wave can go 2.618*a and that’s just a little higher along w/ the 1.732 (square root of 3) extension target.
For those looking to short, recommend waiting for a daily close below 1879 (red horizontal line) Sitting my hands until then …
For now, believe gold has topped or is topping out …
There is a high probability that we have bottomed in the 4th wave and the next wave higher for TSLA is just starting. We can go all the way down to, basically, 20/share and still have a valid count but two things came together nicely PRICE AND TIME to make me think this is a “first” opportunity to get long TSLA.
Folks, if we are long down here in the low 100’s our target will ultimately be above 420. So, be judicious w/ your position size and don’t get greedy. There will be a LOT of gyrations …
If we go below the low around 100 then stop out and we’ll look to try again but for now – believe a bottom is in place for TSLA and a nice risk:reward investment is presenting itself.
RANGE SQUARE OUT
Above you will see the concept of a “square out” w/ TSLA. You can “square out” a high, a low or a range.
From our vantage point PRICE and TIME are just numbers and are equal and interchangeable. Inflections up or down occur when PRICE = TIME or PRICE and TIME are equal harmoniously.
From the IPO price we went a total of 414 points higher. PRICE.
From the ATH DATE of 11/04/2021 we simply add 414 calendar days and that date is 12/23/2022.
Additionally, this entire RANGE square out happened right around the date the BUY PATTERN completed.
Hence, believe we have an important low in place w/ TSLA.
Appears the static time cycle was off by a week or so from the top and the count hadn’t complete so that was to early. However, what we can see now is the sell pattern has completed and the potential of us going – big – has become more probable.
I’d look to be short Transports and the thesis is wrong above the most recent spike high.
January 18, 2023
I blogged a while ago about the Transports … if you do get the chance, check out the EWT professionals from, say, a year or so ago and how they did an amazing long term (100’s of years) of an aggregate Global Down Jones Transportation average … folks, the EWT pros are just stacking 5’s on top of each other at my “thesis” = big top. What do I think … well, they are the EWT pro’s and while I’m a CMT and taught it to CMTi students I can say I know corrections … to put together 100’s of years of counts is impressive. Either way … 5th waves are either finished or in work to finish. In our lifetime … it’s going night night folks. Might have already started …
Here’s a chart from a year or so ago … why my thesis on a “big ass top” … simple AB=CD .. but this is a MONTHLY AB=CD and the A leg starts back in July of 1932. So, from a “big deal” perspective, I think this is one …
Where are we now …?
I got asked on the thread about TIME and while I’m trying how to figure that into some training, I did “see” (after you look at charts so much you start to see things … maybe that’s it, I’m not sure what I see anymore LOL) …anyway, you could see the harmony so using a rudimentary cycle tool you can see that today was a good day for a “move” to occur. Additionally, used the “rock hitting the water” analogy for wave creation (depending on how high and how heavy the rock is dropped depends how big of a resulting wave we get) and from this you can see the waves propagate outward. Expanding the initial wave by 1.382, 1.618 and 1.8877 (musical note ratio of equal octave scale of music) you can see what happened to price .. but from a TIME perspective just follow up the arc to the 3 o’clock position and that is a good timing technique.
Based on todays action I would look to be short Transports and stop about yesterday’s high … sure seems like it might be TIME for the “train to leave the station.”
this is a ‘nice’ Gartley SELL pattern and, to be honest here, would sure like it to “work” as I want (hope (a strategy)) for a move lower down into 110’s to complete 6+ year triangle … as we have discussed, triangles have 5 legs a-b-c-d-e and, right now, my hope ( a strategy) is that we are carving out the “e” wave and then .. game on for an explosive move w/ the USD versus the YEN.
if we blow thru “d” will have to get out the eraser and take a peak …
either way, believe 2022 will see the USD EXPLODE HIGHER against the YEN.
in that post we did some “basic” work using EWT going w/ Wave 1 = Wave 5 and some “basic” retracement work. as you can see below there was a LOT of math and geometry coming into this level … fundamental frequencies, square root targets, geometry, extensions, etc. all made this an “interesting” area for sure.
where are we NFLX?
if you go back to a couple posts of NFLX you will see that I called it a “chart of the year” because of the very “ray charles” like count of 1,2,3,4,5. we blew thru the target zone by 3-4% probably because my ego got the better of me in coming up w/ that title (digression complete) but either way, we completed 5 waves up into 700 … and we just completed 5 waves down.
what is so important about that?
5 waves either complete a corrective C wave (they are ALWAYS 5 waves) and now we bounce OR they could show a change in trend. certainly believe it’s way too early to be calling for a change in trend for NFLX but our thesis, for now, is the 700 level was a potential big top. so, w/ 5 waves down we need to pay attention.
anyway, our targeted zone held as support (note there are at least 9 different methods showing this to be a good zone of support) and it appears our rally is on … from an Elliott perspective, a guideline (NOT a rule) is that a counter rally will go to the vicinity of the previous 4th wave of a lesser degree and we can see a LOT of math coming together in that zone/area. I do believe that area will work as resistance but I “expect” that the higher target will ultimately be the rally point as this entire NFLX bull run has had a lot of momentum …
so, for now, let’s see how this PATTERN plays out and watch the 625-630 area and also 650-660 for now …
note the fundamental frequency and square root targetsgeometry and extensionstwo zones to watch for now .. would like to see an ‘a-b-c’ type of EWT rally into one of these zones …somewhat in ‘no-mans-land’ right now …
also, note below, that Palladium also hit the target zone and found support …
Palladium rallies .. so does tech … so watch a potential really in Palladium also …!
bottom line – this rally “makes sense” and the math worked … so now, we WAIT and look to put a short on NFLX in the coming days or weeks.
thanks for reading and rock on, ok?
also, got a 4/3 wetsuit today … it’s just got plain cold in the Pacific and with a long period swell and a favorable tide, I could stay out there ALL DAY but cold got the better of me …
well, if your along for this ride you might start questioning the long thesis – I’m not there, yet, due to my entry down in/around the low 9’s … but, certainly looks heavy.
for now, we stand w/ our thesis that the low 89’s was a major low and this is a retracement in a wave 2 or B-wave w/ a rally to come.
I do like the support found from the polarity log trend line …
staying long …
here’s a look at the NAT GAS continuous futures contract … note, we’ve completed the “largest” move up since 2005 (blue lines) … reasonable to expect a move up like the orange ones from the past?
in the last post, looks like the “percentage” or “log AB=CD” worked well and led to a 40% ish decline … that was wave 3 (orange)
today, we completed the first AB=CD in the entire run … we have a little gap left open but net-net this was a very nice BUY pattern and looking at the count, certainly can make the case that we are going to start a run to new all time highs for TSLA .. then, well, 5 waves complete. will try to update targets in the coming days/ weeks but lets watch price action for now in/around this pattern level.
the target zone ID’d in the post above missed the target by 5% but has been selling off the past few weeks …
a VERY clear 5 wave count is present so I’ve done my best as providing some “guidelines” to formulate a gameplan.
the “thesis” is that we have completed 5 waves up on NFLX and are correcting based on that move …
a lot of times, not always, 5=1 and that comes in around 580 .. .we would like to see that hold and bounce up in 3 waves to prepare for a short … so, hold your powder dry and I expect, in a few weeks, it might be time to put your toe in …
as you can see, Palladium is tracking down into our level ID’d above back in September. additionally, you can see that they track each other pretty nicely. it’s NOT exact but the general trend and flow is pretty much the same…
during this sell off in Palladium, the NASDAQ 100 has held up pretty nicely and we are approaching a level on the Palladium chart that represents the LARGEST corrective move in the past 15+ years. this measured move is key …
time to play IF and THEN …
IF we hit the level below on Palladium AND it holds THEN I would look to be a buyer of the NASDAQ 100. note, we have a LOT of thrust coming into this level so let it shuck and jive and look for a weekly signal reversal candle on palladium (in this case the HIGH of the candle that makes the low (the wick is included) on a weekly close above is a signal reversal candle or SRC)
note the thrust coming into this very important .786 retracement node. additionally, we have a 1.618 projection a little lower sitting right on top of .841 retracement. (1/1.1892 = .841 equal octave scale of music ratio) and we can throw in some polarity and bullish divergence so would expect some support or a pause.
that being said, I enjoy doing ratio analysis so here’s AMZN / BABA. the first graph below is back almost 4 years ago when I did the same relative strength look because, at the time (believe it or not) BABA was stronger that AMZN. don’t believe me? look at the ratio … it had been going down for a couple years as BABA climbed but then guess what, measured moves and retracements and a bunch of pattern stuff gave AMZN the support in the ratio and off it went and the rest is history. (note, did I mention – once – anything to do w/ sales, or revenue, or anything like that? nope …just numbers and patterns for me)
if seriously trying get long BABA I would watch for a daily or weekly SRC before entering. when I look at those relative strength ratio charts it looks like BABA is about to get smacked even harder so caution warranted … wait for an SRC.
this is the 2017 AMZN / BABA and note the “technicals” at work here …the first AMZN/BABA chart is the circled area in the chart above .. note, it worked.
below is our ratio .. if you remember my last post, we were talking about a monthly or weekly close BELOW the consolidation and the market would take off … it started but jumped back into the channel and has been climbing ever since.
what has happened in the market? some interesting selling … but is THE TOP IN?
honestly, have no idea nor do I care if it is or it isn’t. all we know is we now watch the top of the channel … if that gets attacked and we get a weekly/monthly close ABOVE then a health meltdown could occur.
for now -just in the middle of the channel folks. looks like it wants to go higher to hit the upper channel – that’s what its been doing – so why not? higher means some more volatility / selling but nothing to freak out about, yet.
so what do you do? here’s something easy … if your a bul or like buying then BUY the TOP of the channel and if your a bear and like to sell then SELL at the bottom of the channel.
it’s going to be very interesting. hit me w/ any questions …
we last blogged about the “1.618 level” and the fact that we are in the continuation phase of completing a LOT of 5’s or we completed it at the AB=CD.
that is one heck of a bearish “wick” on that candle folks … but it’s also a LOT of thrust into the AB=CD so WAIT but if your long Transports might want to start paying attention to them …
and then I think ..
“now that I see a MAJOR pattern completing (yes folks they do fail – please remember that) I think of what could be the “news cause” of actually really thumping the transports that, after a little sell off, have weathered the pandemic actually pretty swell ….”
the game plan/strategy is to BUY the first PATTERN in a “new” trend and if it works then probability is that the trend change is real …
Energy, Ags, etc. are exploding of late and GLOBAL shortages that are becoming apparent pretty much every day are REAL. so, if one thinks (trade what you see not what you think) that Nat Gas prices are due to continue to rise then we have UNG that will give you exposure.
if we break thru the low at 13 then I would consider this a failed pattern but we have some MAJOR support coming in/around 15 for the BUY to get long nat gas and, perhaps, hold this position for a LONG time …
it’s all probability folks …
below, you will see a MONTHLY on UNG since inception. wanted to post this chart so you could see why I wrote the above .. have we broken out in Nat Gas? have we begun a new bull trend? full disclosure, I’m long UNG down in the single digits and will be looking to ADD to my position at this pattern completing – if it ever does.
take note of the volume picking up and the fact that the RSI is at it’s highest level .. the key here, in the coming ongoing pullback, is where the RSI finds support … if we find support on the BULL ZONE (around 40ish) then we can start giving our change in trend some more probability … but, for now, we are speculating that a very investable low is in place .. don’t throw the farm at this one .. nibble at it … as we will see the breakout occur and there will be more time to get LONG if the “low in place” thesis is correct.
additionally, the “length of the base equals the price target potential is also nice here .. we’ve been basing for 6 years and, if you want to split hairs probably 10 years once that low was put in place 2012. bottom line, if this things goes higher, it’s going to go ….
another way to check trend is via long term LOG charts .. LOG’s help you understand rates of change and are very good at giving first hints of big changes in trends or inflections …in looking at this on the long term log scale, certainly appears to have broken the long term log trend line …
last, when you are building a position, it’s wise to see how “strong” or “weak” that security is compared to high fast flyers .. in this case, for no other reason than randomness, I chose UNG/NFLX.
yup, Natural Gas has out performed (on a relative strength basis) NFLX for all of 2020
as you can see, the NFLX AB=CD failed by, roughly, 4% and w/ this price point one would have some pretty big exposure if playing single shares ….. I considered that PATTERN failed.
that being said, it was a PRETTY HUGE pattern (hence I called it chart of the year) so I went back and looked at the “form and proportion” of this move up into the high and I saw on a daily that we had some more “count” to go and a projection smacked us right into the high (for now, it’s all probability)I realized my ego got in the way here, putting something out like “chart of the year” … I can’t stand when NFL or NBA players make a big deal out of play … why would I fall into that trap? my apologies.
that being said, this is a pretty big target zone so I do think we need to take this top seriously. however, a REAL change in trend would be a MONTHLY CLOSE BELOW 600 as shown below on this DAILY NFLX chart.
in order to fully understand the SRC or Signal Reversal Candle please pay attention to the chart below:
as you can see above, the SRC is a MONTHLY close below 595. a REALLY conservative play … however, you could do an intraday 60 minute SRC or daily, weekly, etc. it all depends on your risk tolerance.
holy smokes .. the underlying BULL market that we have right now is pretty amazing …
I went on to chat w/ JC of @allstarcharts.com a couple months ago and we talked a LOT about IWM. we went over the MATH of why it stopped where it did and, folks, the math on multiple time frames and multiple techniques was PERFECT. he still hasn’t “published” our podcast – maybe because he knew it was going to break out? 🙂 who knows …he’s a lot smarter than I am but still a GREAT dude. follow him peeps!
and guess what ..IWM pattern, it wasn’t WRONG but it certainly wasn’tRIGHT.
BOOM- we broke out today so guess what? I have to get my eraser out and start over and, unfortunately, that’s happened many many times. 🙂 why should I be surprised? well, keep reading.
the market went up to our target area and hit in/around 233. as we describe above, in an irrationally exuberant bull market, WAIT for the SRC and the signal reversal candle was finally hit the week of my birthday (note a fun fact – the HIGH on crude oil hit on my birthday 7/11 – shown below- synchronicity?)
the HIGH on Crude Oil on my birthday
I show the Crude because of my birthday but also because of the PROBABILITY of what can and can’t happen when a TON of math comes together.
folks, MORE math came together (see the last post linked at the top) on IWM .. so only being human I EXPECTED it to dump and the rest of the market to, well, at least follow along … ? unreasonable?
well there it sat … and sat … and then an SRC
Here is the SRC for IWM:
SRC for IWM
more than likely, a short would have been initiated and we would have been stopped out ….
end of story – right? well from a P+L perspective, yes. folks that is ALL that matters.
from a form and harmony and balance perspective this IWM continues to amaze me.
please see the chart below:
if you have been reading the blog you know we had been targeting this price zone for a while and when it hit you know I (most of the time) say WAIT for a signal reversal candle because it’s probability – right? of course … so sometimes the pattern will act as support or resistance (this is what IWM did for 233 days but ultimately it failed.) and sometimes it will work and inflect to your favor or it EXPLODES continuing the trend … it’s all probability. but I think I’ve shown that “stuff” happens around the patterns – fair enough?
what’s key for me, even though we are dealing w/ probability, is I KNEW there is still a “beat” or “rhythm” to it … that’s why the patterns help you manage risk, right?
so, at the end of the day today, I saw that the market was up again and I thought … “I bet (no kidding, I KNEW this was the case in my gut) we made the PRICE high the same many days (TIME) ago … “
there you have it above … 233 calendar days ago the price HIGH was hit and is it any coincidence that we BROKE OUT when PRICE equals TIME? NO – that is how it works. our job is to figure out what the key master has in store for us regarding the harmony and balance of what we are dealing with … it’s all based on math and music but it’s also a multi dimensional chess game …
why would I type that last sentence?
well, 233 is a Fibonacci number as shown on the chart above … the Architect, what a sense of humor she has ….
there was and still is (for those who have the PRIVILEGE to do it) something so amazing about the feeling of going BONS (Boots On Non Skid) of a US Naval Aircraft Carrier.
it wasn’t a ‘bravado” thing as people would believe from the characterization of Naval Aviators but – for me – it was simply amazing. being on the flight deck as engines were turning, the ship was moving and everyone from 18-50 (?) was moving in elegant and frictionless dance .. it was that amazing.
and when you walked up to your jet and there was an AMAZING YOUNG SAILOR (note no identity needed because WE DID NOT CARE) told you your jet was ready you simply took it as fact .. how cool?
so you would jump into the jet and get this multi-million dollar tax payer funded rocket ship ready for the catapult shot and – I believe EVERYONE – asked themselves before Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride “have I done enough to manage the risk” and “yes” was always the answer and for me … BOOM I shot off the pointy end of American Diplomacy. What an amazing privilege and honor.
what does this have to do w/ NFLX? EVERYTHING ….
folks, we have an near perfect AB=CD, a 1.618 extension into the target zone … and, at least for me, an Elliott Wave count that breaks NO rules is present on multiple degrees …
maybe it’s time to PUT your money where your mouth is Bart when we reach the 650-660 area?
if your someone trying to get short – sure looks like the bar is eating you …if your trying or are long looks like you are eating the bar … man, this is interesting.
1/ as a PATTERN recognition expert I can say that the PATTERNS for selling equities FAILED over the past two days.
2/ as an intermarket musician I try to look at everything ….
3/ so lets do that ….
the PATTERNS have failed
Palladium really looks like another leg down … Palladium down has been equated to NASDAQ down and, to a certain extent, equities down
NFLX … man, that pattern is REALLY close …
Banking Index – again, a MASSIVE pattern a little higher …
XLP/NYA – certainly might have BROKEN DOWN (equity strength) of the 7 month channel …
so what do we do ..
me?
sitting on my hands and looking for a simultaneous 1/NFLX target hit and 2/ BANKING INDEX hit and 3/ XLP/NYA target hit and then SHORT the NASDAQ w/ a vengeance ….
until those 3 criteria are hit I’ll continue to lick my wounds on MJ 🙂 but … seeing the “numbers” come together for NFLX makes me think I might have to break out my timing work … as a side note I recommend you go and BUY Connie’s book (novel, war and peace) the 32nd Jewel .. it’s mind blowing and I’m only on the 3rd chapter because I find myself against a wall and then I go and “find” (I wonder how I find them) books on number theory and Planks constant and inverses and … the rabbit hole just spirals so I’m reading Robert Edward Grant’s “Philomath” and – total mind blown – but it’s helping me go back to Ms. Brown’s expose and the TIME factor becomes understandable but – it’s still elusive in nature – so when I get a bunch of numbers coming together I work backwards to figure out – what- exactly – is the VIBRATION that NFLX is rolling along with …..
the KEY is the DATE of the IPO and, I think (I’m still learning) that first “long term” pullback from the initial impulse move … that is where the rock hits the water and the height of the drop, the weight of the rock , the wind, the moon, the tide and ANYTHING that is PRESENT and PHYSICAL interacts w/ the waves to create the moves we see … it’s really that simple.
IF (and trust me it’s a BIG IF) that’s the case then wouldn’t the mathematics of the ancients (note, probably you and me and anyone else present right now … ) that govern natural harmony work on the markets?
YES .. join me going deeper and deeper and deeper into the rabbit hole …
chart of the year ….nothing “truly” goes down till the banks go down … pretty big target approaching …
love that saying from the Big Lebowski … what a great movie.
so, here we go folks .. I’ve just ran thru the DJIA, NASDAQ and S&P 500 and ALL have sell patterns.
what does that mean? well, nothing … right? it’s all probability …
but, that’s what we play, probability …so, we have Gartley SELL patterns across the board – they will 1/ work or 2/ not work.
also, our favorite ratio is banging against the bottom of the range that it’s been swimming in for months .. but, take a look , at this lower level you will see an AB=CD, a 3 drives to a bottom and a butterfly BUY on the ratio. so, when the ratio goes UP then the market usually goes down …
we break down below our XLP/NYA level this puppy could rocket ship higher and, then again, the sell patterns work, the XLP/NYA level holds and we start selling off again …
most people think “equities” and that’s it … there are many asset classes that are just starting multi year (decade (?)) runs …so while stocks are correcting and seem to be pretty stretched taking a look at the current environment and just looking at the news we can see their is a BIG battery shortage coming.
usually, a shortage means higher prices … LIT has been on a tear, up almost 380% in the past 1.5 years…. I haven’t even been paying attention till my two Rugger buddies were texting about it last week.
I found an ETF, LIT, that looks pretty liquid and has been on a tear …
trying to get into a moving market is hard to manage risk so, for now, looking for a correction to try and get in … this will, again, be a multi year hold.
also, if your not convinced, I did LIT/NASDAQ and sure looks like we’ve bottomed out and are about to break out and take off from a relative strength perspective.
I’m a Cannabis BULL and out of my portfolio, right now (knock on wood) the only thing losing money is MJ …
so we “survived” by hitting the .786 from the all time low and bounced and now (intraday) we are setting up for a BUY pattern in/around 14.40-14.50 BUT, folks, this one looks like I might have to eat some crow.
hope is my strategy at this point so if we close (weekly basis) below the .786 will probably take this one to the donut shop and eat it … we’ll see.
hope and change baby hope and change ..
I “hope” we find support and go up from 14.33 and also hope that the intraday buy pattern holds and we “change” trend ..
yeah, that worked out great the last time so … probably going to take a loss on this one.
as you all know, I watch the XLP/NYSE Index ratio for key inflection points .. when the ratio goes UP then “staples” (think risk off) have more relative strength and when the ratio goes DOWN then the overall market (think risk on) is stronger from a relative strength perspective
with the recent market action … one would think the ratio would have exploded higher .. well, yeah, no – it hasn’t. still stuck in the range it’s been trading since FEB 2021.
so, for those max BEARS you might want to watch this .. need an upside break out above the red line to get the party started and for the max BULLS need it to break down below the green line …
no idea which way it will go BUT I will tell you I was surprised when I took a peak at it during my nightly cruising of the charts … my “thinking” was that it would have been higher, much higer.
but we trade what we SEE not what we think … so, until the ratio closes above the red line I’m going to say this sell off is a much needed correction that will ultimately need to be bought … and if we break BELOW the green line, then, perhaps game on for another run.
note, Palladium did not take out the low from a couple days ago BUT sure does look like a dead cat bounce . that being said, corrective forms are usually 3 waves so perhaps we go up again to finish off the correction or we just dump lower from here .. that is the question.
either way, the amount of selling and thrust right now begs of caution if long but you might want to perk up as we go into the 1500-1700 level on spot palladium.
also, don’t need to catch a falling knife so watch this level, let it bang around an, perhaps buy on a retest.
think about it … went to a long term Palladium chart and was able to calculate the low of 80 ish in Jan 1991 (yeah, 30 years ago) and then figured it was close based on the sell off .. well we hit it and YAWN HO HUM I would expect it to EXPLODE off that level … certainly looks like a dead cat bounce to me … hmmm
I like the lower blue level for BIG support and then, perhaps, a chance to buy or get the bounce and exit before it really gets ugly. (hint hint – it isn’t yet)
I redid my NASDAQ chart at the request of a friend .. the other night, when I posted it, I just drew the “AB=CD” and figured I would tighten it up over the weekend …I did tighten up the target w/ some more precision.
the AB=CD has been hit.
how did we get this target?
from the low in 2002 we label A. The most recent 2020 highs are B and then C is the low after that pretty quick drop (note, it was one of the fastest percentage moves drop in history) from there we can calculate the AB=CD target. Appears to have been hit ..
from the all low on 10/03/74 we draw the radius of the circle all the way to 2000 .. that’s a BIG rock hitting the water, isn’t it?
from there we draw our circle … once we have the circle we can create the square based on said radius and that is bolded in BLUE.
speed or fan lines originating from the all time low and being based on the geometry of the first impulse move are pretty powerful. as you can see I divided the length of the square into the usual ratio’s and then drew the fan lines from the all time low … take a look at the result.
there is a lot going on w/ these lines and there is a lot more geometry that can be drawn but I don’t want to clog up the chart.
so, net net, pay close attention to the NASDAQ in/around here, fer shure … if the AB=CD pattern fails to the upside there are other targets that I’ll update but for now, this looks like something that we should REALLY pay attention to …
tomorrow, have the opportunity to sit down w/ JC and continue our discussion around Fibonacci and vibrations and patterns …I’ll post the talk after its completion and believe it’s also live streamed on Twitter. We’re doing it after the market closes …
in the last episode he specifically asked that we spend time on the “rock hitting the water” or the “initial ripple” … below, you’ll see the chart that gave us an “idea” of a POTENTIAL stopping point and it’s the “regular” technical analysis. this is the chart that I blogged.
but, in order to REALLY get an appreciation to why this LEVEL is so important and how, perhaps, one can start making that little move towards the cliff to jump into the rabbit hole w/ me I show some more of what’s really going on … not meant to confuse anyone but to visually show what I mean when I say I’ll usually look at 11-12 things before making an investment … I didn’t blog the last two charts because I think it’s just too much information. honestly, that’s the only reason.
Is IWM going to breakout or breakdown? YES. NO. Have no idea but whichever way it DOES GO it’s going to be a wave to catch and surf … fer sher. also, it never hit my Signal Reversal Candle. (SRC) who the heck knows when it’s going to blow …
initial post showing target zones for IWMtarget being hit … the green highlights are qual to the dashed red lines (note – start the “square” at 32 and other numbers …)the ROCK hitting the water and the waves that result … the ROCK is the initial impulse move off the low on 10/10/2002 … using physics the fundamental frequency is then calculated.simple calculation from the all time low and “creating” the IWM Musical Scale based on the Equal Octave Scale of Music (multiply each cell by 1.05946) NOTE: the high zone in IWM was equal to the finishing of the 4th octave.
chart below has Palladium w/ the NYSE Index overlaid on top.
the candles are Palladium and the blue line is the NYSE Index ($NYA)
note, currently, Palladium is correcting pretty steeply … in the past, this has led to the overall stock market to correct also. is this time different?
as the market continued to climb to new highs, if you look at the chart below you’ll notice that it did not move to new lows. no, in fact it has been basing since Feb .. almost 6 months. in a truly bullish environment, it would be game on and this ratio would continue lower. it did not …
in fact, it appears to have some strength and starting a breakout to the upside.
THAT, is not a bullish equity move … so, keep you powder dry. if you have been following my blog for a while you know how powerful this ratio (XLP/NYA) has been at warning about inflection points … yes, we have lower targets from the last post, but, for now, certainly appears that the ratio is/has bottomed and a “risk off” mindset appears to be taking hold ..
one last, I went in and fiddled w/ my settings and everything and can’t figure out why all the candles are green? maybe it’s that I’m using a “ratio” but I’m not sure, so I do apologize for any confusion. for whatever reason 4 candles are red …?
well, it went and hit right at the top – exactly I think – of our target area and is built a series of 3 higher lows (daily) …but we do have an entire “zone” of support in/around 24-28 so this could be a dead cat bounce. give it time …
but, this count is valid and, dare I say, AMC is off to the races …?
keep an eye on this very very very key level on the USD Index. correspondingly, here’s a EURO BUY PATTERN present inverse to the USD. (it’s usually how it works)
they lead us UP and they lead us DOWN. the banks, financials … it’s that simple.
that being said, the move since March 2020 has been strong and straight up .. kaboom that’s a face ripper higher and, frankly, caught me off guard. why?
well … the ZIRP, the multiple trillions (yes I just typed MULTIPLE trillions) of sovereign debt is beyond anything that we could EVER imagine. folks we are in unchartered territory. again, we are in the vapor ware of experiential historical construct and, from where I sit, it’s UGLY.
but, the band plays on … right?
so, I present, more than likely the most important chart out there .. the banking index.
I had the opportunity and that is what it is .. an an opportunity to sit down w/ JC yesterday and chat … it was blast. but what came to me is while I have all these followers – thank you!- nobody really knows what I’m showing so I’m going to break it down …
BLUE VERTICAL ARROWS – they are measured moves .. every move UP has ended at their conclusion .. so, note around the 155 level – make it simple
DASHED BLACK LINES – just showing you where we take the key nodes and EXTEND from those points … NOTE that 149-155 we have some confluence.
ELLIOTT WAVE – love it, when it works … seriously. if your going to go down that rabbit hole, just learn the corrections … anyway, a VALID (trust me, doesn’t mean it’s a correct count LOL) count shows us finishing 5 waves in around the level sighted before. NOTE – the orange lines is the current wave that we are counting and 1=5 in our target zone.
so, 149-555 BIG DEAL for the financials ….
now .. go on … rock on, capture your stoke folks …
was able to spend a Friday afternoon w/ JC and his production crew and we were talking about “why” fibonacci ratio’s work in the market … here’s my best guess. LOL
well, underwater on TBT. I’ve shown my entry and man did that look like a NICE one .. but, it’s all probability. folks there was a TON of math coming together in /around 17-18 and it got wiped out. but, we have some support holding at the .707.
I’ll cut half my position on TBT if we lose 16.06 to the downside on a DAILY close below.
I’m still bullish RATES but … trade what you see, right? let’s give it a couple more days and then might need to throw half a towel into the ring on this one …
also, I’ve done the 30 year continuous futures contract INVERTED to show the same picture at TBT and to also see if there is some support that might be found on this one … hmmmmm. can’t win em’ all …
investing is like golf .. learn how to play out of the rough and the sand and you will be a good golfer! I’m still learning!
PFE is all over the news – not that I care about that BUT the sentiment towards this stock is getting worse … additionally the “big target” was hit up at the monthly level so this stock “should” have a major top in place. (of course, should is the operative word)
down on the 60 minute chart am waiting for a SELL PATTERN to appear but for now, its no mans land.
not sure I’ll be looking to be LONG PFE until another big leg down occurs.
Look to short for now … on my watch list.
49-50 seems reasonable for a short attempt – would like to get a projection up there but can see this offering strong resistance – for now.
August 04, 2021
above is one of my first forays into Harmonic Pattern Recognition … it’s PFE way way down in the low teens. believe I was looking for 13-14 as the low. anyway, when looking at PFE today it reminded me of that chart …
anyway, based on this vaccine stuff and a boat load of cash, looks like PFE is off to the races. some nice resistance above on the weekly and then a “final” target at a double AB=CD and 1.27 extension. that should stop it or at least provide some stiff resistance.
buy pattern is completing, completed. let’s see what happens now … again, it’s ALL PROBABILITY but the masses who have been hanging on might see some light IF (the big if) this PATTERN holds.
I have no idea if it will or won’t but some buds were crazy enough to TRY (operative word) to play this w/ the masses so .. here we go!
the coin marched right into our target zone and has backed off .. in fact, it hit, exactly the 1.618 projection. if you remember, the “c” leg is often 1.618 “a” so we hit that …
there are still some higher targets but the theory is that we are in the beginning of a C wave down and then a BUY in, potentially, the low 20’s.
could we be advancing and wave 4 already complete – yes – but for me, it’s too early to tell. for now I’ll watch and monitor ….
note, the symmetry of the moves … wave 1 = wave 5 and the internals of wave 3 are perfect … 1 = 5 and 2=4.
you’ll also see some numbers to the side those are projections showing the clear symmetry in the waves
lastly, we were so so close to hitting the 16180 or 1.618 high .. off by .1 percent. anyway…. if you open your eyes to the harmonic ratio you will see a ton of examples.
just to show you … here’s the USD versus the LOONIE on a LONG TERM monthly and note the top …
yes that’s a MONTHLY AB=CD and then, just for shits and giggles went up and tagged 1.618 and “night night.” Just saying … pattern on a harmonic number, pay attention.
that was QUITE the pop today and we are getting close to resolving “one more leg lower” or was that it …
either way, my BULLISH outlook on Bitcoin remains … the chart below is the bearish option and the one I’m going w/ for now … but, we will know soon.
be ready to shift to the “low” is in place and we are advancing in a 5th wave (foot stomp) but the move should be big ..
so, in the more near term bearish you can easily see we did 5 waves down and now we are simply doing a 3 wave B move and then a BIG C wave to come …
I’ve noted a very important level for resistance .. if that holds and we start down lower then it should be impulsive and powerful (like a classic C wave) …
I want to see that “resistance” level noted above to being take out to the upside before going long. truthfully, would love the a-b-c to be in play as it will give us a better AND a rule of life is that the C wave HAS TO BE 5 WAVES (EWT) and it’s usually very violent and harmonic and pretty easy to count so when we do go long, we should have a very risk controlled entry to go long.
yes, big spike today, but don’t get fooled or too bought into the bullish case, just yet.
hope makes sense .. let me know if I’m missing anything.
if the blue measured moves tell us anything … corrections usually occur at their completion. right now, we are at that extreme and we are banging up against a 1.27 extension. would use that level ( or a little higher) for stop out point and would look to sell on a close below 44.50.
the masses are at “play” here w/ AMC and what a better laboratory to test harmonic patterns than on THIS stock …
the only caveat – it’s all probability. that being said, w/ the balance of thousands upon thousands of our fellow retail traders holding 2 shares portfolios at risk, we can enter w/ a defined point and another defined point of where we are wrong …
so, the GARTLEY PATTERN buy is 28.80-30.98.
the red lines are back from the weekly/monthly and are horizontal lines placed upon former resistance that should (operative word) act as support .. the polarity principle.
anything below the above and this puppy is cooked …
TBT has fallen into the bottom level of BUY zone and I’m long TBT in/around 18.
A lot going on w/ his chart but wanted to show you some “other” geometry that I was working … you see, we can make arcs and develop trend lines using the geometry of the chart but also, using the TIME and PRICE to define the vectors.
in this case, we take the all time low and draw the bottom of the square to intersect the “time” of the high. that will define our arcs and the square. the most important aspect of a square is the 45 degree angle (red line) and that line we then “copy” and “paste” to the bottom right of the first square and, well look at that … it intersects the LOW almost exactly. we also draw another square (and we can/will keep drawing these squares to find the trend lines running the show) and notice how the two 45 degree angles TIMED the low almost exactly .. (FWIW, this was a precise 1.618 AB =CD and a .618 retracement along w/ the same percentage corrective move that drove price into the all time low … came in around 21-22 percent decline.
so, while we do have the traditional “slap a retracement grid and look for the .618 retracement and a whole lot more …
take some time to study this chart .. try to understand it as it’s very helpful, indeed.
and, w/ all this work, I’ll consider it “wrong” if we get a daily close below 16.08 (.786 retracement)good weekend to everyone …
nice rally from the fresh lows in the high 20’s .. but, for now, still suggests a correction in a ongoing 5 wave C wave pattern.
if we blow thru 41358 (note futures contract – other prices may vary) on a daily close above then, more probability that the low is in place for an advance.
for now, a near perfect Gartley Sell Pattern exists in around 38-39K
lot’s of pressure on the Coin … certainly doesn’t look like the low will hold and will plunge into the 20k’s.
here’s the deal, this smells, feels (I’ve been “scrambled” (surfing term being caught inside) by a C-Wave before) and while it’s a fools game to pick tops or bottoms, I’m trying to find the pattern that will give us the best entry.
I’m long the Coin and getting some egg on my face (see scrambled above) but am going to hold to look for some support and the possible low to be in place to begin the march higher … what do we have going:
Note (3) up near the all time highs .. I REALLY LIKE when a new high is made on 3 waves. that is a classic “b” Wave into the new high and then C wave wipes everyone out – like right now.
the wave count (if this is correct) shows 5 distinct waves down from the high … a “guideline” NOT A RULE is that when 3 extends (in this case 1.618) then 1 = 5 (blue arrows into/around 23K)
a RULE is wave 4 (we are in an expanded flat wave 4 correction right now – if correct) is it cannot go below the end of 1 .. (dashed green line) around 15K. If we go thru 15k to the downside then wipe out the count and this is 100% wrong.
I threw a “basic” retracement grid up there and highlighted the blue box for a support zone that would 1/ finish 5 waves down, 2/ finish the C-wave and 3/ end (4) and then we go UP into the 70’s to start …
also, threw in the fundamental frequency targets (dashed purple lines) and also used the largest percentage correction (dashed red arrows to find the mid-20’s looks like a stopping point to give another a shot ..
it’s all about the data folks … in this case we have a monthly continuous contract of Copper Futures. the PATTERN into the low back in 1990-2000 (yes it took 10 years to complete .. read that again – 10 years) is hard to understand w/out anymore data to the left of it’s beginning so it’s hard to figure out if the high in 2010 was a big 3 or big 5.
thus, I’m going to outline two scenarios ..one bearish one bullish.
BEARISH: replace the big bright orange question mark w/ a bigger 5. IF that is the case THEN the most recent high was completing a B wave and we have started a C wave down … C waves are freight trains of beauty and a wonder to behold .. leave nothing in their wake. stand by …
now, hold the phone, what if the big bright orange question mark is/was a 3? then, the BULLISH scenario is we just finished wave 3, are correcting wave 4 and copper is a BUY into new highs … it’s still working it’s way thru the corrective PATTERN that will appear so it’s hard to make a projection but we should NOT go below (1) as that will violate a rule …
so, for now, take note of the blue arrows .. the all time high was, yup, an AB=CD staring from May 1999. It smacked right into that …
kind of in no mans land from a count perspective due to data but expect the two red horizontal lines to act as support due to the polarity principle …
Happy Fathers Day …
also, note EEM .. smacked into a nice target zone in/around 58 and the second chart shows the daily sell signal on EEM.
minor EEM sell pattern on the daily …
last, note the synchronicization between copper and emerging markets … pretty nice correlation.
last, note the FXI (china) has NOT made new highs while Copper and EEM have .. below you can see that high/low inflection points are nicely timed by the Chinese ETF …
so, for now, expect copper weakness for the next couple weeks then we can figure out where we might be from a count. if anyone has really long term copper data please let me know.
and down the rabbit hole he goes … at least he has me “guiding” him although throughout his life he’s the one who I feel is parenting …
he’s questioning the “reason” that this works … but that will come, in time.
“…even the very hairs on your head are numbered.”
CVX – shows a triangle but some pretty thick thrust down to close last week. IF the triangle holds THEN we pop up into the sell zone and then … should be down.
note the timing component – believe next week will be key.
below you will find the SHORT DOW ETF called SDOW. it’s pretty fascinating if you think about it or look at it .. your preference.
basically right around the start of the pandemic around the week of 02/14/20 the volume was HUGE and the SDOW went on a nice run higher. well played … but since then it’s down basically 10X and there is still a lot of buying …
look to the far left and this ETF fell so far and nobody was interested and then last year hit and someone/somebody has been buying and selling this security …
now, of late, if you look closer to the last couple candles and corresponding volume you’ll see that the most BUYING volume ever has come in AND the price as pretty much stabilized at/around the low 30’s ….
alert went off last week and the upper target zone on the DJ Transports has been hit ..on my monthly chart that level is 16180 and while I know a lot of you will just see a NUMBER and that’s cool but when you play w/ numbers EVERY day you see 1.618 … you study sooooo much that you understand “why” we don’t need decimal points and what they actually mean so you can move decimals point around.
if this is the high, I really have no idea if it is or it isn’t then the Architect has a really FUN sense of humor. think about it .. the “low” during the financial crisis on the cash SPX was 666. not kidding .. check it out. now, w/ one of the MAJOR indices topping out on the Golden Mean … well look at that.
the chart below is the “bearish” short term case … as you can see from the title, right now, we have been making the stair steps of “higher lows” but it’s not a THRUSTING or MOMENTUM move like the one we saw off the low in/around 30K and the geometry/form is starting to “look and feel” like a 4th wave triangle …
so, need the 38,340 and 40,000 to get taken out to the upside by momentum and a daily close else we are going to be under some more pressure …
the good thing .. we have a clue where we are w/ both scenarios so we can plan accordingly.
in this case, the triangle, they “usually” occur in the 4th wave and then have sharp reversals … mid 20’s can be expected if the bearish triangle is in force.
if not, then the “stair steps” should hold and we are beginning a move into the 70’s …
the chart below is the chart we are currently working off .. in this case we are following the bullish case that the spike low in/around 30K was the end of the C wave and we are going to advance …
need to see some thrust/momentum UP to validate the low is in place … so far, that is our running gameplan.
truth in advertising, always, on my blog … the bearish triangle gains traction the longer we just limp along like the dead cat bounce this might be …
LOVE the Loonie … as you can see below, IF (the big IF) you can catch a wave this FX pair likes to run .. in either direction. well here comes a wave …
at 1 we have the classic AB=CD and, at least for now, it is holding …
at 2 we have a lot of MATH coming together along w/ a corrective (dashed red line) move that has present on most EVERY major corrective pullback.
w/in both above (1 and 2) we have the TIME dashed green line … that’s pretty key to me. Something (hint hint look up at the sky at night) has been responsible for the corrective TIME of EVERY MOVE DOWN since the beginning. a measured move in time, if you will. if your wondering, the dashed orange line is of course harmonically related by fibo .382.
guess what, I’ll WAIT for that … and that’s the end of the summer, and I’ll table the Loonie but I wanted to show the power of TIME and PRICE combined. Guess what, if it doesn’t work, there’s 50+ other currency pairs. I’m trying after so so many years fighting to make this easy and enjoyable …
in the last post we created two target zones w/ the “basic” AB=CD and 1.618AB=CD projection technique. doing some rudimentary wave counts I’m going to call the low as a corrective move being complete but I’m updating my count to show that this is still wave 3 of 5 that we are in …
what does this mean?
we “should” (from current levels) move up into the mid 70’s or 80’s and, depending on the chaos of the masses maybe even higher but it is going to be the final wave higher w/in this BIG 3rd wave.
then, expect another nice shake down WHICH SHOULD BE BOUGHT for the final leg that should take us into the 100k’s …
today, the ratio went and smacked right into an hourly pattern SELL (yellow highlight) and a 15 minute butterfly sell (light blue) …
when the ratio goes DOWN the market goes UP. pattern hit perfectly and the rally ensued …
now, it’s time to WATCH the next day or weeks action to see if this pattern fails and the sell off continues OR the ratio continues down causing sustained rally. I don’t recommend being LONG any indices right now as we are in a TIME and PRICE window that might prove significant.
today’s “Musk Induced” Sell off certainly smells like a C wave … that supports a zig-zag correction and it certainly smells like we are in a 4th wave correction … targets of low 40’s and, depending on thrust into this level forewarns of a move below into the low 30’s … we’ll just trust the patterns and the count.
but, for now, the lower targets are opening up nicely …
note the thrust into this level .. begs of caution so either WAIT for a daily (<362) or weekly (<350) signal reversal candle to initiate a short OR HERE but out above 377.
either way, when you have multiple monthly projections and extensions all coming together in/around here one should take notice.
of course, it certainly can blow thru this level to the upside (it’s only probability) but this is some very STIFF areas of resistance so only time will tell.
also, for those who might understand why I write the following OR want to go and dive into a rabbit hole … 373 is a prime number. we’ll leave it at that …
watch the levels shown on the GBP and the EURO and USD Index to get a feel for what might be coming this week.
IF we hold these levels then expect dollar strength .. EURO and POUND weak.
IF we FAIL on these sell patterns for the EURO and the POUND then the dollar will take a pounding and go right into the level we have been waiting for what seems like a LONG LONG time … stay tuned tonight.
personally, WAITING and have a “hunch” that the levels will fail (USD weakness) and go forth and attack the lower level shown on the USD Index which is the SAME level equal to EVERY move lower in the USD in the past 30+ years. worth waiting for … don’t you think?
note the BIG polarity principle shown from the dashed red and green horizontal lines .. waiting for a daily or weekly close below 50.32 is probably the most conservative play …
also, note that the support at 51.42 is the AB=CD level and is holding as support
last, while the AB=CD was taken out most/all the ratios hels in the zone of 51.42-52.92.
an interesting pattern w/ big ramifications upcoming …
our last post on Bitcoin ID’d multiple patterns … multiple AB=CD, a 3 drives and a butterfly sell all in the 65-68 area. in my original post I just took a look at the chart “real time” and said 66-67 but did some work on the intraday charts and 65-68 is the zone. honestly, I wasn’t worried about being too precise because I’m generally looking for this wave to end and 4th wave correction to occur so i can BUY again. right now, I’m going to say that based on the gap down today, that we have a Wave 3 complete and are correcting in Wave 4. again, there are targets a little higher but I’m not going to worry about that now as it appears that this gap down has things going in the 4th wave correction direction.
also, note on the 60 minute chart, that we can certainly label this an island reversal and – if that is the case – then we can expect lower over the coming days and weeks.
now, am I screaming the top is in w/ the Coin? absolutely not … I’m looking to BUY again but found that the risk of continuing w/ my position outweighed the downside. now the hardest part – trying to get in a moving market. that part, for now, is TBD.
target zone has been hit w/ a reactionary sell off – calling 3 complete for nownote the gap down tonight validates a “bearish Island Reversal” which forecasts coming lower prices for the Coin.
please see chart below … ultimately, it’s about risk control and how much risk one is willing to take.
our thesis is the 14-15 dollar low was a BIG low and we are very early in a multi-year (multi-decade (?)) rise in interest rates. yup, you just read that correctly …so to manage risk, one must understand that there is a potential that the trend has changed and we now have 3 different levels to enter …
here and now … GARTLEY 222 pattern complete at the low however, a nice gap down warns of lower prices. gaps into a level beg of caution …
19.14-19.42 …realistic w/ that gap down and lands basically on the top of the channel w/ polarity in play.
18-18.50 .. a lot of ratios and polarity principle (red line) … that looks good.
so, if the low today was the low but you don’t like the gap down then WAIT for a daily/weekly CLOSE above 21.50 for confirmation and BUY or if you do not think the low was today then WAIT for the two levels below.
either way, risk is basically in the 16-17 former cluster or the low at 14.28. that’s the true support zones. the lower breaks then the entire thesis is 100% wrong.
Bitcoin has made, as expected new highs and there is probably some more to go … that being said, the count has worked thus far so I’m sticking with it. always open to get the eraser out, as many of you know, but for now we are advancing in the 5th wave of a bigger wave 3.
I closed my position at 57k and have been sitting on my hands TRYING (it’s hard) to not be greedy and let the waves come to me …
as many of you do and some of you don’t I absolutely LOVE SUP Surfing and I had a board member from my non-profit (www.thesupvets.org) in this weekend and he said it was his “best day of surfing – ever.” peeps – it was amazing.
why? reading the waves on which one to take, which one will clobber you (there were plenty of those and which one is a better L or R, etc. same thing goes w/ the market. it’s all number, vibration and … well waves. the chart below is the bigger picture – updated w/ an RSI and commentary. so far, the “set” coming in looks like it could be ridden.
what do I see nearer term(note: trade what you see, not what you believe)is the following:
RSI: note the stair steps higher, in the bigger picture chart above, as this is the “transition” technicians see when the RSI finds new zones of support and resistance that correspond to a bull or a bear case. in this case – bullish longer term but we also have bearish divergence (new highs in price and lower highs in RSI) that is present in the 5th wave advance of a move … key. so, we can see bearish divergence that corresponds to a 5 wave count and, of course, PATTERNS.
the chart below is, frankly, a work of art. the synergy that is coming together is remarkable. we have, pretty much, ALL OF THE PATTERNS COMING TOGETHER in/around 66-67. AB=CD, 3 drives to a top and a BUTTERFLY SELL Pattern. WOW.
so, all this means is this level is REALLY important. if it holds we’ll probably get a BIG correction (the one I’m waiting for) OR BITCOIN WILL EXPLODE HIGHER. it’s just a pattern but man is this one important.
explosive move upward, 3 drives to a bottom into the .618 retracement and now the AB=CD. taking a crack at LONG MJ in/ around here or the entire 20 price zone and wrong below the low of 19.51.
at this point, to protect a position, if you have one open, move stop to entry level at .8475.
you can see the “polarity” principle in play where the support in the spring of last year is now acting as resistance in the spring of this year …. hmmmm.
anyhoo … I’m looking for an initial target to take some off in/around 8850.
note the 38.2 and 50% retracements, largest measured move correction (dashed red line) and he polarity principle again but this time highlighted by a darker/bolder red. why? this level held as support for MONTHS and when it finally gave away, it gave away big …
note, depending on the form of the correction (if it even stops here) I might be looking to add on a pullback into the 8550-8600 area.
taking a look back at Uber we have reached the objective discussed a couple months ago ” in the low 60’s”
note the SAT trend line .. yes, that is SATURN HELIOCENTRIC. Nice little band it’s been banging into from a support and resistance perspective … certainly looks “toppy” and one could easily draw “another” H+S formation from the beginning of 2021 and most recently … key neckline as shown below.
I’ve had a couple people text me over the past couple days regarding Natural Gas and UNG.
well, right now UNG is definitely a dog and I went a little red today but I’m going to stay w/ this one because 1/ this is a LONG TERM play and 2/ I’ve been watching a SUPERB BUY pattern on the Natural Gas futures as shown below.
certainly looks like it wants to go down and tag that level … I’ll hold LONG UNG until that level is tagged. it DOES NOT need to go down there but it’s a valid pattern BUY ….until that level is taken out to the downside on a daily/weekly close I’ll remain my bullish outlook on Natural Gas.
will I add to my position w/in UNG if it goes down and tags that level … NOPE. as a pattern recognition investor/trader I have been taught to never add to a losing position. so, I’ll WAIT for it to become positive before ever thinking of adding anything and if it blows thru the BUY PATTERN to the downside then I’ll take a loss. that loss NEVER exceeds 3% of the total trading capital.
Monthly Natural Gas – most recent low was the all time low and the lowest level in 20+years. (NOTE: look what happens when it touches this level in the past)BUY PATTERN on Natural Gas in/around 2.138-2.185
I also blogged about KEY SUPPORT in/around 224-225. that was the FIRST PATTERN BUY in this long term uptrend. is that uptrend still alive?
if you go back to the last post mentioned above, you can see a very clear 5 wave move that, and this is important, BREAKS NO RULES of the Elliott Wave Theory. It’s a valid count …
now, is the count correct? we don’t know ….but we can find out rather soon as we have an almost perfect SELL PATTERN in/around the 225-227 level.
now for the IF and THEN
IF the top around 235 is a valid end to a 5th wave THEN this SELL PATTERN shown below SHOULD work.
a valid target will be 198-200 or below ….
have a GREAT EASTER to everyone if this is what you celebrate .. what an amazing time of the year and a time to be alive.
checking in on CSCO we are at a VERY important point as CSCO is showing the completion of a near perfect SELL SIGNAL but due to thrust, if the pattern works, would wait for a signal reversal candle below 50.
if the pattern fails then, it’s quite possible that we have begun the parabolic leg up the opposite side of the mirror image foldback. it sure has tome thrust fueling its rise so this pattern is REALLY important for the Bulls/Bears.
also, one last, if you take your AB as the all time low to the all time high and then project .618 that length from 8 dollars you smack right into the last high in/around 58.
the 50’s … appear really important for CSCO
tomorrow is either a “gap and gone” higher or a “big stiff wall of resistance” for any further advance ….
Bart
this is the current daily sell pattern “before” the market opens tomorrow on 03/29/21
turned bullish on Bitcoin down around 6-7K and off it went….
the past couple weeks have been interesting as it’s been hovering around the 50-60K mark.
I’m still bullish.
as for – right now – I see another leg up to make a newer high and then a BIG 4th wave correction and then another big run higher – 100K+ not out of the question.
closed my entire position at 57k ish and now am just going to WAIT and do nothing and watch my thesis shown in the chart below work out what’s going to happen next.
Elliott Wave, as I have OFTEN said, is AWESOME – when it works. it’s hard, no doubt, but learning the corrections is key.
using the guideline of alternation, looks like a zig-zag for wave two so I’ll be expecting (not a sure thing at all – it’s a guideline) for a flat or a triangle perhaps but either way, I’m going to hold …
also, note, we have some big time volatility here … so as long as the coming correction does not go below the big blue 1 then we might conceivably correct 70% and STILL BE BULLISH.
also the BIG 3 is projected to end around 68K. it doesn’t need to get up there – at all. but that target puts a very nice 3 drive to a top in play …
I’ve been monitoring the ratio, daily, for a while as I really wanted the ratio to go down into the “major support” area as I could then feel probability was on my side to take a crack at shorting the market. yes, shorting the market …
if you’ve been reading my blog for a while and for those newer blog readers you will find out/know that the patterns on the XLP/NYA ratio have been exact and helpful in understanding the flow of funds in the big institutions. KEY.
so, I noticed the “key trend line” last time I blogged and noted it but, honestly, haven’t been paying that much attention to it .. just had the lower “major support” level on my hand but, the “key trend line” looks like it has tagged the ratio and provided some much needed support for this falling knife.
now what – well – we are kind of in no mans land … but, I’ll be watching closely and, keep the “major support” level a little below in the back of your head …
ton of math coming in 129-131 … for those bond proponents out there, this better hold or we could accelerate even more. figure a daily close below 128 is a failed pattern …
that’s the great thing about patterns … they work or they don’t.
WHEN they do, they tell you something.
conversely, when they DO NOT work, they tell you something.
I’ve been showing a 5 wave count in IWM for a while and, just recently, it went up and tagged our target zone. it’s one of many target zones …
the question is “is this the one?”
I don’t know … but we have an intraday BUY PATTERN and if this is a bullish corrective move then this level SHOULD hold … yes, a correction can go into the 210’s but in this case we have the classic AB=CD, 1.4142 extension and the .382 retracement all right here, right now.
IF bullish, THEN this level holds and goes higher …. we’ll see
this a MONTHLY BUTTERFLY SELL signal on GS. Target zone is 360-376. Since it’s so large would WAIT for a signal reversal candle before entering a short …the AB=CD is at 360 (bottom range of the zone)
update: rolling into a BUY zone for both futures and UNG. IF the thesis that a BIG low is in place THEN we should find support and then continue upward.
take time to look at the long term Nat Gas Continuous Contract chart … you can see the “major” trend line which is acting like resistance .. a weekly open and close above that trendline could signal game on for the bulls.
if major support breaks then we could be looking at the 7 dollar level on UNG. needs to find support in the area shown …
note, on the monthly, looks like we will start the month closed below the key trend line from 2007. and he market accelerated upward.
that being said, we are approaching the “target zone” for a lot of math and I also want to call your attention to the monthly RSI and the support zone that its approaching …
I went back and checked .. the last two times it touched this low of a level in the past 15 years was 05/2018 which was part of a -40% ish correction and 07/2007 and we knew what happened during that time frame.
if you have been following my blog, you’ll remember the big measured moves that were around when the dollar was carving out THE low. they have appeared/are appearing again. w/ a wrinkle … using “basic” monthly cycle tools you can see that we have a BIG cycle coming in this month which lines up w/ the measured move target zone a little lower in the index. this could be a BIG DOLLAR MOVE higher ….
below you’ll find the chart that started the dollar bears growling and stopped the dollar bull in it’s track. the form, proportion and balance are amazing and exact. take time to study this chart
the time and price symmetry of the latest high on the USD Index
since then, the USD Index has basically been carving out what looks like a flat correction and then higher … you can read prior posts to see if this was an A-B-C correction or 1,2,3,4 (in work/finishing) and then higher in a big 5th wave. we are getting a little below the end of wave 1 which breaks a rule if your a purist but it sure looks like we are bottoming. then, the last chart is an intraday chart showing a possible mathematical derivation of wave length based on fibo relationships that could get us into the target zone … so, stand by, as this is a BIG level coming up on the USD.
notice the dashed black and blue arrows, they are exact measured moves and then note the long term cycle that is hitting this month2 hour intraday chart showing wave relationships that could get us down into the target zone .. used equality of wave 1 and 1.618 wave 1 to project.
I’m teaching my son about “advanced” Pattern Recognition … it’s fun and the big thing we keep hammering into each other is trade what you SEE not what you think/believe. (thanks Larry P)
well, here is IWM.
what do I see:
a VALID wave count that breaks no rules. I feel comfortable in saying that we are in a 5th wave …
AB=CD or Wave 3 = Wave 5 at 234.
1.732 extension (daily)
fundamental frequency from the first impulse low of October 2002 – July 2007
Square of 9 targets
geometrical projection technique
Folks, a LOT of thrust into this level, so .. playing it safe here and WAITING for a signal reversal candle weekly close below 206.
A LOT OF MATH HAS BEEN HIT ON IWM …
it’s only probability and only a pattern … if it holds, ramifications are BIG.
it’s time to really start paying attention to the market across the board.
in this case, there is a high probability that this count is correct. I was able to use some of the data from the peeps at http://www.elliottwave.com. I enjoy their newsletter and while sometimes too early, in the end, they have proven to be correct.
I’ve found that when my count matches their count AND we have a turning point in the Martin Armstrong cycles things do happen …
bottom line … I would fasten your chin straps and get ready for Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride … folks, I love SUP Surfing.
and, believe it or not, I see the waves and look for patterns and fractals of the waves that are coming in my Pacific Ocean playground. all I can think about is a tsunami to describe the wave that is approaching our shores. I’m not even sure if this wave is one that anybody could ride, it’s that powerful.
call me crazy, many continue to do so, but we are entering into territory that NOBODY alive has ever experienced.
as you can see, the ratio hit this level, held and the market sold off for a couple days. the market strength the past week has been impressive and, with that, the ratio “failed” at the level indicated and, as you can see, we have a pretty big candle that is closing at the low, for now, so it sure looks like the pattern failed.
that being said, I’m not overtly bullish here, right now. note the key, dashed black line, trend line is approaching and then below that we have 3 ratio’s, an AB=CD (dashed black line) and the all important measured move from the 2003-2007 time frame. MAJOR SUPPORT for the ratio … also, of note, is the 14 period RSI is approaching a key support level …
could the market continue higher from here – of course – but there are some other sell patterns present on other indices so I’m just going to be flat/neutral here.
one last, note the TIME of the corrections .. on this leg up from 2007 the corrections (blue rectangle w/ ‘time’ written on top) has been nearly perfect and, if that is the case, then this current leg down, from a timing perspective isn’t ready, yet.
could we be at the start of a parabolic move higher? let’s wait and see what the “MAJOR support” level does before we get too far ahead of ourselves.
the PATTERN failed this AM and the market pushed higher. for a correction in the market to continue in earnest, you can see we need the .786 level to hold. right now, the low back in late/mid January should not be taken out to the downside w/out a little more pullback in equities.
also, note the blue measured move arrows. probability says we sell off a little if that level does get hit as it has reacted that way the past two times.
XLP/NYA hit a nice buy pattern on Friday and based on the entire days action, there is another “minor” buy pattern appearing. if both of these hold, then the staples should continue to outperform which traditionally causes equity weakness.
if we lose the levels, then we have the .786 ratio a little lower … either way, the ratio should NOT take out the January 20 low, for now, as that was a pretty big target. sure looks like probability favors more upside for the ratio next week.
we have a very KEY level of support on the XLP/NYSE Index ratio.
as you can see below … we have the measured move (dashed red line) equal to the largest correction in the ratio since the low in 2007 and w/ that the lowest level on the RSI in 12+ years. note, a bullish divergence does not appear to be needed for the ratio to find support …sometimes there was some bullish divergence and other times it just hit the support level and reverse higher. I do think it’s necessary to to take this into account.
then, we have a significant amount of math coming into this level w/ the .786 retracement from the last swing low hit last week.
lastly, we have key trend line support a little lower … this is a “good” trend line because you can see that it was respected as resistance when we copy/pasted the lower trend line onto the higher prices to create the blue trend channel … bottom line is to expect support in the ratio.
so now to the IF and THEN statement of using PATTERNS.
IF the ratio does find support THEN the equity market should correspondingly correct/move lower. ELSE, a blow thru to the downside of the ratio will make the market continue higher and, perhaps, w/ force.
we will be in that key decision making process – next week.
the second chart is just showing the NYSE Index overlaid on top of the ratio .. as you can see when the ratio finds support, the market corrects – every time.
If you have gone down the rabbit hole that I have (hint it never stops) then you uncover tidbits of information that you would never think were important but one of those moments of “that’s cool” and move on …
I am eyeing a NICE currency position and then ended up cruising around the charts and was looking at Monthlies on a bunch of stuff. The charts reminded me of some of my early market music stuff and I figured I would go back and check em out …
Came across this long term DJIA chart ( I won’t bore you the importance of logs, numerology, blah blah and read the first sentence above. :)) It’s a technique for price projections that I learned from my friend and mentor, Michael Jenkins (www.stockcyclesforecast.com – RECOMMEND), and the results were pretty astounding.
I’ve shown some past blogs around the importance of the number 28.48. It’s a key PRICE NODE that has been at most tops and bottoms. So using it as a projection technique? Why not!
Then, you know I love music so … why not combine them w/ rates of change (logs) and … well the result is below. The use of logs and musical note ratio’s from the all time low on the DOW have been almost exactly the price using the log projection w/ the musical note E ratio.
The next appearance of this PRICE is 40,655 as annotated on the chart. One last, take a note of the blue arrows. the basic AB=CD lands, close enough, right on our target.
At this rate, from a timing perspective, it’s not that far off now is it ….?
Cycles are lining up, just saying.
Bart
below, note the symmetry of the projections and how, at least for now, EVERY MOVE, has been equal to each other and aligned w/ the Golden Mean.
while we came close to our upper targets, we never actually hit them but based on this price action I’m going to assume that we have a near term top in place for a much needed correction to relieve the steam.
this is very preliminary but I’m using the past to project into the future .. using the past “percentage” and “price” corrections (dashed red and orange arrows respectively) I’m projection DOWN into logical support areas simply because that is what worked last time …
additionally, I put a “basic” retracement grid from the ATL to the ATH. some nice synergies appearing.
once all that was done I drew some “basic” trend channels (light blue and red lines) and those can always act as support based on polarity …
plus a couple “two tree” (slang from the Navy) gaps were left on the way up so they will also act as support.
now?
we wait … wait for the form, balance and proportion to signify that this correction is complete. the last one was almost 9 months long.
the last time we blogged about the GDOW we saw a pattern and the AB=CD and warned of another possible move down … we got a 36% correction from the AB=CD. what is fascinating, is the correction from 2007-2009 was related to the most recent correction by … yup, 1.618. if you take the correction from 2018-2020 and multiply it by 1.618 you will get the 2007-2009 correction in percentage terms.
anyway, in another 10% or so we are going to have a major test for the Global Dow.
and, objectively, STRICLY LOOKING AT THE CHARTS, this sure looks/smells like 3rd of a 3rd action so I’m updating my count.
it BLEW THRU the first two targets at 23K and 34K and now I’m eyeing 43-45L and 51K
does this mean the run in bitcoin is over – I DO NOT think so.
as you can see, I believe we have higher to go, much higher.
coming up w/ targets allows one to manage risk and, potentially, pyramid for doubling or tripling of prices in the future.
what should we expect – VERY violent and liquidating corrective moves (operative saying – corrective) to give one an opportunity to ADD their to ones position.
for those w/ an equity only account here’s GBTC the Bitcoin Investment Trust. nice target hit (a 1.27 extension and 3.142 projection) w/ a pullback occurring – BUT look at the size of the candle and the appropriate volume. glad SOMETHING respected a level (LOL) but don’t think it’s the end of this wave – yet.
if your a conservative you’ll be happy and if your a liberal you will be angry … (having fun folks) but, either way, a SELL PATTERN is complete on Twitter. For the pattern to be considered it should not go above 62.
at a minimum, expect a potential double digit move lower.
doing an update as we can see the well defined downtrend that has been in place since, pretty much, inception in 2008.
if you followed some of the other Bond work on the site then you would know our thesis is there is a MAJOR HIGH in bonds (TBT is the inverse) so, we could be, perhaps, looking at the very beginning of a BIG run in TBT.
yes, interest rates to rise and, potentially, rise VERY fast …. hang on.
perfect TIME and PRICE patterns were hit today and, IF (a really big if) the count is correct we are on the verge of a very powerful move in the bonds ….
the thesis was that we had a VERY VERY large top in March of this year at multiple waves of degree. the pattern that hit today was one of those text book sell PATTERNS and the price reacted. here we go?
if you search for Natural Gas on the blog, you’ll see for almost 3 years – yes 3 years, I’ve been flirting w/ a low (big low) on Nat Gas and looking for the pop … back in 2017 we ID’d a pop but it quickly got run over. Wrong …and, since then, I’ve really just dropped it off my radar.
two of my really good virtual (unfortunately) friends from the Academy, Rugby, flying and blah blah and me trade texts back and forth. they act all smart like they are finance guys about the news and the P&E (did I spell that right) and fundamentals .. I just look at PATTERNS.
they asked about Nat Gas. “Great,” I thought “I can go back and visit my old nemesis. and, I would be an idiot to forget what now President Biden said about energy, right? One would think it would be falling out of the sky. EXACT opposite.
I believe it made a VERY big low in July, it just finished a 5 wave move up from an “ending diagonal” and we have 5 ratio’s (retracements, extensions, measured moves, projections) all coming in at 2.2.
I do want you take note of the yellow area at the left of the screen .. on a daily, this area looks like an expanded flat. however, when you drill down to a lower time frame (here a 4 hour) it sure looks like I’m curve fitting – which I might be, just being honest. I’m putting a bias into the fact that I’m right on the thesis: BIG LOW. that changes things somewhat because wave 4 CANNOT go below the end of wave 1 (or above if going down). sometimes you can dirty your purist mindset and maybe go w/ a CLOSE below 1 and if there is a daily wick or two right around the end of 1 you can curve fit and the count continues. folks, in this case 4 was below for almost 10 days … that’s a broken rule and an invalid count. see how fun Elliott Wave can be …?
one last, if you look at where the “PATTERN BUY” level is at that 2.1-2.2 zone one will see that the PATTERN completely closes the gap left on the 4 hour chart … nice.
If you look at UNG, it hasn’t budged so if your going to play the ETF/Fund side of the house, I would recommend that you wait to BUY until Nat Gas hits 2.2 on the continuous futures contract.
lot’s going on here … I’ve told peeps before “I’m a musical technician that uses crayons!” 🙂 I enjoy sitting down and seeing what the chart will tell you. it’s relaxing.
Uber popped into my mind after the mind boggling pop I heard about today. no other reason than that … anyhoo, you’ve seen me use most of these techniques before, so just hit me back or IM me and we can discuss.
bottom line … perhaps a pause here but this is impressive thrust so I would HOLD or be a buyer of dips looking to scoot into the low 60’s …
Update 02/23/2021 – the “sell zone” failed but, if you do look at the chart it basically held copper at bay for approximately 7-8 weeks, then exploded higher, just like the stock market. the past couple days I’ve been posting a LOT of 5 counts and took a peak at copper and smacked right into another higher target … yes, we have some strong thrust into this zone it’s something to take notice of ….. why? If the 5 counts are actually ending then this current level is what should hold copper, it’s that simple. If copper explodes higher, which it most certainly can, then I am hard pressed to find a reason for the equities to go down.
note – WATCH THIS COPPER LEVEL!
a common relationship exists based on 1.618*the wave. in this chart just hit that target, exactly
Copper,/ below, smacked right into the “SELL ZONE” … why is Copper being blogged about? Isn’t that a “who cares” type of metal? Ummmm, no. the inflection that occurs in copper has occurred in the stock market, as shown, on every major pivot since 2009, at a minimum. /
so, this “zone” is very important …. watch copper in the coming days/weeks to get a “feel” for the overall health of the market.
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if you’ve been following my blog you know I’ll say “I love Elliott Wave, when it works…!” for Copper it certainly has. one of my first blog posts was about absolutely nailing the low at 4 by using, you guessed it, Elliott Wave.
is it going to work again … I really have no idea. that being said, if we follow the standard Elliott corrective construction, certainly looks reasonable that Dr. Copper is finishing a trend defining “b wave” and, just perhaps, a monstrous “c wave” cometh ….
you can go to any financial site and check out “why” the equities sold off today … it could be any number of reasons. at the end of last week, we had a double 3 drives to a top pattern w/ timing that said “monday” is important … to me, it is as simple as that.
in addition to that, take a peak at the XLP/NYA ratio. bounced off some BIG support so the sell off is nothing that wasn’t expected.
how big will this become – if at all? no idea if it’s a one day blip or a big thump coming. just going to look for patterns ..that being said, a ton of euphoria, a lot of SELL PATTERNS and our ratio analysis showing support and Staples to outperform the broader market which usually means – risk off.
the two charts below are showing 2 three drives to a top pattern … the timing shows Monday 11/30 as the key date.
this chart is a 15 minute chart and showing the “three drives within a three drives” … kind of like Inception “dream w/in a dream w/in a dream” I guess ….
there are some higher targets but I would consider a daily close BELOW the gap area shown to be important for the bull case.
if you do a search around music on this blog you’ll see a pretty long post about using music and logs to calculate targets. a chart from that blog is here:
until tonight did I think about the correction this year and it’s harmony w/ 28.48. well, shucks, it perfectly nailed the .382 from that all time low. we will see some iteration of 28.48 at the final high – whenever that may be because TIME will always EQUAL PRICE at the final high or low.
long long way to go to 40K and it won’t occur in a straight line BUT hopefully some of us will be around when it hits that upper target ….
believe it or not, I learned to trade as a SPOT Fx dude ..no kidding. No stocks, no futures, no ETF’s out of the Navy I jumped right into the INSANE world of SPOT FX …
I still trade the SPOT MARKET … I’ll check out the majors, then the crosses and see what’s the scoop. no kidding, I once heard that ALL the world bonds and commodities and stock markets would have to operate for 90 days non-stop to match the liquidity of ONE DAY on the Currency Market. YEW …
in this case we have a currency pair as the EURO vs the Japanese Yen. chart goes up the Euro is stronger. chart goes down the Yen (versus the Euro) is stronger … it’s as simple as that.
I’m cruising the charts waiting to get locked down in CA and saw a neat chart to my eye. I just started working this chart and …boooooom … we find a level as depicted.
Let’s make this easy, when we have a LOT of math in a really TIGHT area we HAVE to take a swing at the bat … now, that being said, that is some nice thrust from the 121.62 area but I think that last thrust up was the end of a flat correction. so the recent wave down, should (trust my count or not 🙂 not sure I do or I don’t to be honest 🙂 ) go to our targeted BUY ZONE. Say 120.50-121.
let me know if you have any questions on how the levels were derived …
oh, in the spot fx world, w/ SO MUCH math in one area, I usually give myself 30 pips below – max- for my stop out. w/ the liquidity of the FX and the math as shown, go down to a 1 minute chart for the entry .. seeing these levels hit, instantaneously watching the reaction and to think that w/ a home computer and some PATTERN work the entire world STOPPED selling EUR vs JPY and started BUYING EUR vs JPY. still amazes me … I’m always surprised to see this insane way to look at anything rational about the markets work from time to time ….
The notable aspect of Bitcoin is the CRUSHING of the Gartely 222 SELL PATTERN in/around 14-15k. As you have seen me blog before, failed patterns aren’t fun because IF you took the investment/trade THEN you probably lost money. But, to try and figure out “where” you are they tell you a lot. The “usually” result in explosive moves higher or lower depending on the the PATTERN being a BUY or a SELL.
As we approach new highs remember, this is a 5th wave … yes, it could explode higher and higher and higher ….but, the euphoria, the political landscape, the talking heads, the “insert something to fuel the rise here” are all going to be blathering but our job … trust the PATTERNS.
If/when we do get a nice pullback the levels of FAILED PATTERNS are usually good support or resistance depending o the type of pattern.
The 21-23K level is a BIG TARGET as it represents an AB=CD from the ALL TIME low and a 1.27 extension. It SHOULD be stiff resistance if not a big ole target.
Last, just take a second to study the 2nd chart below. Remember the CHAOS of the BITCOIN craze …? Well, if we take the point labeled “S” (start) and follow it to X then A= .786 SX. From there, just look at the relationships that were almost PERFECT in this heightened GLOBAL market. Can someone explain this to me …?
Just a little higher and the Dow Jones Transportation Index hits a major long term target ….
10/28/20 -not trying to play Captain Obvious, but that was an ugly sell off today. as shown a couple days/week ago, the Transports were coming up to BIG resistance and/or topping in the area we charted. (FWIW – folks it was simply measured moves. The Transports had done the EXACT same move EVERY TIME except once that was 1.27*measured move)
so this update is to just say, it’s simply too early to put some downside targets on the blog. the correction (or is it a TOP) will produce a CORRECTIVE PATTERN. For now, just chill and wait for the Captain Obvious BUY to appear, if ever.
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Update: the Transports target has been achieved and on an intraday 60 minute chart, UPS, came w/in some cents to the exact level. On the daily it’s basically 1 percent below. Now, the level is the level is the level so that target still stands but in conjunction w/ the Transports, believe this target set has been achieved.
Now, look at how STRONG this move in UPS and the Transports is into new highs. IT IS STRONG. Thus, suggestion is to wait for either a MONTHLY or WEEKLY signal reversal candle on close. (the LOW of the HIGH candle is CLOSED BELOW)
As I signed off last time .. stay tuned!
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One of our nicest and predictable patterns is the “long term” measured move or AB=CD. UPS has an AB=CD 179-180. I say “long term” because we really like to use the longest measured move possible. In this case, w/ UPS, we are using the all time low to the first “big” high in/around January 2018. From there we copy/paste the blue arrow and place it on the low at 81-82 and project. That’s it.
the other numbers and the IPO date are cues for me to look at cycles and other “stuff” – just helps w/ the probability because, well, who knows if any of this going to work anyway – right?
UPS
Additionally, since the “all-time” low in July of 1932 EVERY major correction has occurred after the “blue arrow” price move has completed. Note, in the case of the dashed orange arrow it was 1.27*the blue arrow. A number all too familiar w/ readers of this blog. And, finally, as you can see we have a measured move completing right around 12,000.
Now, if we do blow thru the target a little higher (and why not – it’s a rocketship) then we will still use our projections off the blue arrow to derive targets, along w/ other techniques.
But, here below, is the Daily and you can see that we are finishing up 5 waves and the synergy between wave 5 = 1.618 is present right at the level of the long term measured move projection ….
this long term level on the Transports is going to be REALLY interesting. HANG ON!
the FX market is the biggest market in the world w/ trillions of dollars traded every single day … yet, that being said, based on nothing more than math we can derive a nice pattern/ level to go long or short. I think that is kind of cool …
where to start? I like to think of PERS-D.
P= project. I use 3 targets of .618, 1.0 and 1.618
in this case we PROJECT DOWN and you can see that the orange line is 1.618*blue.
Now we get to the “E” of the PERS-D. People get confused or forget about the E. It stands for EXTENSION. key high or low swings are key and what happens when you retrace them 100 percent? do they lose their importance? no … so we can extend off those points as shown below. (I start w/ 1.27 and 1.618) as you can see, the “shelf of support” is the 1.27 extension and importantly notice where the 1.618 extension lies … right at the 1.618 price projection.
PER – time for “Mr. R” … the plain old retracement. you can spend an entire day on this subject but for now, we will keep it easy. what I REALLY REALLY like to see is the old .382 right on top of the .618. (note: .382+.618 = 1.0)
so we have PER and now the “S” who the? what the? S? S stands for structure and, specifically, polarity w/ regards to support and resistance …. do we have that?
so we get to D which is Divergence and we can check that out if it gets there … so PERS-D.
but think of the math and the 7 reasons 1.15 area will be HUGE for the fate of the EURO.
Banks are very important to the overall health of the market … key support approaching! monitor closely …
blogged about the banks a couple weeks ago here: https://bartscharts.com/2020/09/09/banks-where-are-they/ since then, they have continued to lose strength and now the Banking Index has a very important BUY pattern which should hold and the ratio of the Banks/NYSE Index has key support a little bit lower.
banks lead us up and lead us down so these areas below are KEY to strength of the overall market. bounce here/little lower on the ratio and we should stabilize. if we cut thru these levels w/out a whimper and continue lower then i would expect continued pressure down the line …
there is an old adage – the banks lead you up and lead you down. the market has blasted to old all time highs or thru them and the banks…? well, they rallied a little but have not shown the strength of the overall market, especially technology.
let’s keep a close eye on them over the coming days and weeks … important.
here’s the support charts that I posted back in the past to show the patterns at work – it has NOTHING to do w/ me. I just pull out the crayons and try to find the patterns. keep it simple.
this chart was finding support at the “first” level after a pretty liquidating sell off from 112. pay attention … a LOT of math and patterns coming together. One of the key aspects of the chart below (if you have read this far) is watching for former FAILED PATTERNS.
as you can see, that level worked and the banks rallied … I apologize for not having the SELL pattern but I never posted it. Do you see it? After not making it above the 117 level it sold off big time … and, using some math and patterns we found a support zone ….
in the chart below I show you the SELL PATTERN on the banks. YES, this is after the fact and I DID NOT post this at the time but wanted to show 1/the harmony of this index and 2/ the pattern for illustrative purposes. the other reason for posting this is to demonstrate the bank rally off the March 2020 lows has been feeble …
and as we can see, the banking index / NYSE Index is tepid, at best. really don’t think the banks are too healthy right now …
11/05/2020 – yes, some insanity is ongoing everywhere. that being said, we trust PATTERNS and tune out all the noise. In this case, we had the expected reaction to the resistance levels sighted below and, now with this rally, we have another SELL pattern coming into play. SELL THE RATIO = SELL TECH.
NOTE – WE HAVE A LOT OF THRUST AND BREAKAWAY GAPS COMING INTO THIS LEVEL. this begs “caution” so, w/ the euphoric tech rise, it’s not a stretch to expect this level to get tagged and, frankly, get blow over and fail. but, that being said, it is a SELL XLK/XLP ratio so .. .watch closely.
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last week, blogged about parabolic arcs and showed how we could use geometry to POTENTIALLY (the only operative word in investing) to look for inflection points. if your new to the blog, you’ll find a chart that has been replicated a couple times over past couple weeks /months for an area or zone of resistance. in fact, here’s a print to screen where JC (www.allstarcharts.com) and I were talking about this level … we discussed it ramifications to manage risk. this level was known 4-6 weeks ago and was discussed about it being respected. the past couple days market action can tell you why this was a smart move …
if this zone held, then technology would lose some steam (so to speak) and rotation into less volatile names (staples) would occur. at my last count we had 6 different projection techniques and math coming into this area.
when it broke above it – on a daily basis – I was somewhat surprised but it’s all probability, right? so, I blogged to wait for an open and a close above our targeted area/zone. we DID NOT get an open and a close above our area so the resistance was still on .. that is what I mean waiting for a signal reversal.
signal reversal candle (bullish) = the ‘high’ of the ‘low’ candle is taken out on close
signal reversal candle (bearish) – the ‘low’ of the ‘high’ candles is taken out on close.
when we come up w/ levels, waiting for an open/close above or below a certain level is the smartest way to play it. this is what was recommended … we have a LONG time before the month ends (for the monthly candle) but we can monitor via weekly and daily …
no need to rehash old news .. the zone has been hit. you read the blog – to find out where it COULD (there’s that probability connotation again) go …
using the basics, for now, I have used measured move corrections (blue and orange arrows) and rudimentary retracement techniques to come up w/ an initial set of targets.
folks, this might not even be the top to do all this work … it COULD GET ALL REVERSED TOMORROW.
keep the erasers and pencils ready, this is going to get interesting …
MUB has very strong resistance above and look what happened the first time it hit this level.
almost a year ago, blogged about the chart below looking for the 118-121 price level to be key target zone and/or resistance before the “Muni’s” coul could move any higher. that chart is here:
the first tag of this level led to the exact same price correction as shown by the red dash arrows boxed below. this “zone” still appears to be very formative moving forward … my sense is the market isn’t going anywhere till we bust down the door and explode to the upside – else – we will see weakness if the MUB start’s to break down ….thanks for reading.
I was asked to look at NVDA and, while it hit a nice top at/around 575 I usually don’t like to do post like these because it’s a “could have, would have, should have” type of post but I wanted to show some readers the GEOMETRY working w/ NVDA.
In this case, we picked the first “major” correction and that becomes our initial arc .. folks THAT MOVE DOWN SIGNIFIED BY THE RADIUS OF THE BLUE ARROW IS THE ROCK HITTING THE WATER AND IT PUTS OFF WAVES ….those waves are, essentially, vibrations and they are governed by music and sacred geometry.
have done a ton of post on the square roots and the inverse of square roots and how they tie into the frequency of string.
when using arcs, circles the same concept of polarity applies so after the initial arc is drawn we EXPAND THE ARC by musical notes and sacred geometry ratio’s and we look back into the past to see where support or resistance (depending on the direction your going UP or DOWN) is present. In this case, we can see that expanding by musical note A of the equal octave scale of music is exactly the bottom of the price that coiled and consolidated and then lit the cans and took off!
so, w/ the polarity principle in mind – S becomes R and R become S IF the bottom of the circle (in this case) is support then the top should (doesn’t have to ..) be resistance. thus far, it has been resistance.
the other thing we need to notice is .. it’s also a 1.618 price projection …
NVDA is cooling its jets …
Now, see the AB=CD in/around 412? WATCH THAT LEVEL CLOSELY as a potential target as …. price likes to go back and tag the AB=CD if/when it blows thru that failed pattern … also, note, from a “price” correction the largest measured move correction takes us right down to the AB=CD
since I already had the circle drawn I went ahead and did the Vesica Pisces and then rolled those vectors to price .. they can also be done w/ price. remember PRICE = TIME.
we have 4 aspects of FB that show the ATH to be significant resistance.
two 1.618 extensions, key trend line resistance and a projection from the ATL and while it exceeded .618ab*cd you can see as discussed in this blog it did hit the .68179ab*cd (musical note ratio) so we can see why this level/area was big resistance. I would watch for a close below (weekly close) 250 for a significant pullback to be in place.
we had a sell off on the ratio a couple weeks ago BUT there was not follow thru and we still have the lingering level just a little higher which is the real test … again, until we have a strong weekly close above this level I’m in the conservative/flat camp as far at the NASDAQ and Technology goes …
12/3 – please take the time to reread the below, as it is rather in depth, because it explains how important the coming levels are on the USD. folks, they are HUGE!
in the chart below, you will see no labeling. if bullish we poke our head below former support and ROCKET SHIP higher from 87-88. if bearish we find support but keep going down. how far down? well, of course, below the old all time low from 2008.
this second chart is the Monthly but added the RSI. this is key … as discussed below, the RSI develops bull/bear zones and can really help w/ your analysis .. in this case we are sitting right on the cliff of support for the BULLISH ZONE. If we go below there the RSI is telling us of a potential BIG trend change … adding more fuel to the fire for the key 87-88 level!
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it’s been almost 3ish years since I posted on the Dollar Index. My last post was the chart below and what’s shown are the many many time and price synergies between the current time and, well, 30 years ago. this chart nailed the high in the dollar and I’ve been watching it just seeing what type of FORM and BALANCE and PROPORTION the index would take … ummm, I still really don’t know but what’s important is the kazillion dollar COVID question – was the “high” a C or a 1. Folks, this is a HUGE deal.
so where are we ….? i don’t know where you are BUT I know that I’m somewhat confused …. is it wave 3 and we are correcting wave 4 or was that an A-B-C correction from 2008 and we are at THE MOST IMPORTANT POINT IN THE US DOLLAR INDEX right here, right now?
for the EWT purest out there, the top in 2017 around 103 is really dependent upon the correction into the 88-89 area. for the bulls, we know that wave 4 cannot overlap the end of wave 1. we don’t close below the end of 1 but we do go thru a little … man, are we cutting hairs here …? we do have the RSI transition into bullish zones but here’s all we need to know. we can’t go below 88-89 because then 4 goes below 1 and we have something else going on …..
the bears …? it’s almost a textbook zig-zag correction and the symmetry in time and price from the last BIG correction (1992-2001) is PERFECT in time and the harmonic .786 of that last big correction make the bears … hungry? The RSI resistance breakout doesn’t help BUT note how low the last rally was … again, the key is support. If we break the dashed green line … this puppy might be diving into the red sea, so to speak.
I DON’T KNOW …but here are two charts that spell out the “big picture” bear case and the bull case … either way, I suspect we’ll know soon.
now that I’m in SoCal doing a TON of SUP Surfing I really don’t spend my weekend like I used to in VA – cutting the grass, giving it fertilizer and aerating, etc … man, I had some very nice lawn going on … 🙂
I used to say, the grass just needs a stiff drink of “Scott’s and Water” …
anyhoo, took a quick look at SMG this AM and I’m going to be teaching some EWT to a fellow professional and this one popped onto the radar so I shot it over to him ….
EWT is great – when it works. that was supposed to be a joke and serious because it’s both.
just know the rules, look for corrective moves in form/balance/proportion and if your counting to may waves of sub waves of blah blah blah then put it aside and WAIT.
this count does not break any rules and is therefore a valid – subjective – interpretation. I do see that we are in a 5th wave. I also see the “why” behind the math and numbers of the most recent top.
12/9 – 5 waves up complete .. is this the 5 or 1 of 5? don’t know and don’t care. expect a pullback from here … lot’s of gaps on the way up so stand by …
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11/29 – TSLA blew thru the SELL PATTERNS shown below (11/19/20). the way it just took off made me rethink and look at the chart and, as Triangles usually do, after the fact (sorry about that) it appears to have been a 4th wave triangle. most of the time, you don’t realize your in a triangle – if you ever do real time – till after the fact or in the “e” wave …all this means… TSLA is completing/ has completed a 5th wave.
the PATTERN/CHARTS saying the risk is now on the long side … a correction down to 400 ish is not out of the question.
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11/19 – today, TSLA ran into the top edge of the “sell zone” and backed away … keep an eye on this one as it’s not a “no brainer” long, right now.
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11/18 – today, TSLA ran into a strong sell pattern. if, we start down from here it will be a BUY but not after a potential “large” drop. a daily close ABOVE the sighted “SELL ZONE” would be continually bullish and strong.
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as I’ve shown in the past on the blog, these type of parabolic – in this case appears like a rocket they built launching into space – moves ALWAYS end in a big liquidation.
I’ve used what we learned in kindergarten on how to create a circle using 3 points and have the 1800’s a being pretty significant resistance for TSLA. that target zone is roughly 15% away. folks, let’s put THAT into perspective, on Friday the stock (in a single day) was up 12% so is 15% or so that unrealistic?
great to be long but … don’t get greedy, this puppy could flip bearish on a dime …let’s face it, this is unsustainable.
note, do believe we have a good “gravity center” as the point in time/space was the reason (from a pattern perspective) for the top shown by the bold blue arrow.
watch this ratio as a key to provide support and resistance for technology names …
yes, technology and specifically the NASDAQ have been ROLLING. that being said, do see some resistance ahead and especially at the level indicated by the XLK / XLP ratio analysis. (technology/ staples) the level shown below has 6 mathematical derived levels all really really close to each other.
“should” provide resistance to this amazing run … that being said, appears like NOTHING can stop this run and this time it’s different and just buy buy buy as it’s all good …
OBTW, glad the REPO and sovereign debt crisis magically just went away …
one last, anyone else find it interesting that, w/ the NASDAQ soaring to new highs the ratio of the XLK/XLP is “barely” at the 50% level. if we had broad participation across the board wouldn’t this (the ratio) be making new highs?
can’t believe it’s been since mid-april since I posted about the market. at the time, I spied a triangle forming which proved to be wrong and it broke down and the market has continued it’s advance. humbling for sure .. when I was working up the triangle thesis I came up w/ the level that’s shown below but, honestly, I shrugged it off. “it’s not going to go all the way down there, I thought .. ” but I do remember saying, “if it could get down there, then what a perfect spot to short the market.”
folks, we are there … don’t hold me to it BUT I have around 12 reasons that this is HUGE support for the XLP/NYA ratio. don’t need to go back over the importance of this ratio … for a summary when ratio goes up risk is off and when ratio goes down risk is on. UP = bad equities. DOWN = good equities. so support should mean bad equities.
put/call ratio at an extreme, sentiment at an extreme and MONSTER support on the XLP/NYA ratio. probability says support holds and equities top and start back down … all for now. let me know if you have any questions.
disclaimer: this is ALL probability but we now have a very well defined street sign. the market COULD blow right thru the level below and it’s a rocket ship takeoff higher … that is also a probability.
so, play it safe … if it bounces strongly in / around this area then short BUT if it closes on, say a weekly basis, below the defined target area w/ conviction then be long. but for NOW, would wait and see which way she goes. hope this helps.
from a wave perspective believe we have a little higher to go for a target of 60-64 and if that is taken out then 77-80. the math of the current high (59.35) is working out so this could be it also … from a wave perspective the current high is 1.618 and exactly 1.732 of wave 3 … I’m labeling this current move as the final waves of 5. a move higher into the shown target zone should do it for now …
charts suggest a near term low in place for crude and a bounce (a bounce only) to be expected …
note the correlation of Crude, OSX, Loonie vs USD, Crude/Gold Rationote the largest and consistent percentage decline is exactly hitting …. 77.46% Loonie Double Bottom with Crude at percentage decline (?) if this chart moves up then so does Crude … topping …?
long term BUY targets being hit on the commodity ETF DBA
the first target zone we have been watching for a LONG time was hit on the DBA ETF last week. note, we also have other targets in the 12.70′ ish area but, as far as long term targets being hit – DBA has hit them. a low risk BUY in today’s climate.
note, when looking at the composition of the DBA ETF, discovered that the largest holding at 14% is CLTL or an inverse bond fund. Interesting … other than that we have the typical coffee, soybean, corn, sugar, cocoa, wheat, cattle and hogs … not that much volume but if your not a futures player then this is an opportunity to get a broad basket of commodities in your portfolio.
w/ the SELL pattern on Gold/Oil complete then a corresponding BUY of oil is a probable pattern up into 32-33
if you take a look at the last post on the GOLD/OIL ratio and the sell ratio for Gold – if it holds – will strengthen Oil and the buy at 22 on Oil could take a nice rally up to 32-33
I have done another 4-5 charts on NFLX w/ varying counts and corrections – the problem (and this is what sucks about Elliott) is they all “might” be right … but, they are CORRECTIONS in an ongoing BULL market so I’m going to just leave this stair step chart up and then leave the rest of the charts off the blog for now … believe we won’t miss out (FOMO) but we need another week or so to see where this puppy is going …
$COST is strong but might have run out of ‘time’ but as long as we keep above the LOG trend lines then the band plays on …
some significant relative strength shown by COST and, relatively speaking, guess people need their TP and bulk during the COVID. who knows …hard to get an accurate projection because it really hasn’t done a big correction – ever- to do a projection. some stuff to consider … 1/ it certainly looks like its going or gone parabolic. did a quick 3rd grade geometry trick and took 3 points to create a circle … COST has honored it, thus far so we can see that the high came right in ‘time’ of the arc. that could spell weakness in the coming days/weeks. 2/from the all time low in 1987 we have a very well defined LOG trend line and it’s NEVER been taken out so as along as we stay (weekly / monthly close above) those two read trend lines then the band should play on ….3/ the ratio of COST/NYA is showing the strength and we do see some resistance now and ahead …
note: I honestly never try to “curve fit” anything, I just picked the three points to create the arc and just did it … the fact that it appears price and time are holding to the arc doesn’t surprise me as I have 1000’s of hours on the charts and sometimes just see it .. looks like a fit, so let’s just go w/ it ok?
this stock, COST, is one of the more bullish sets of charts I’ve seen out there ….
expanded flat correction ID’d. suggests some more up and down into the lower BUY zone in the coming days weeks
couple years ago ID’d a 5 wave sequence that was completing and then the triangle (which now appears to have been part of the ongoing correction in the B-wave) and now see this entire move since “5” ended as an expanded flat correction where “B” goes above “A” and then “C” takes a big old plunge … if (the big IF) my count is correct in ID’ing and expanded flat correction, then it looks like we have a little more up and downs before we go lower into the buy zone. right now, it’s a pretty big BUY zone w/ almost 20 points between the low and the high portion of the zone. will tighten the range once we have another week or so action …
little higher for a very important target on the ratio of Gold/Oil
04/10/20 – our target level hit and, if you look closely below, you’ll see 5 waves down .. followed by 3 waves up into a “perfect” SELL PATTERN for the ratio. IF this pattern works (the big if) then expect Crude to strengthen against gold and, perhaps, keep the oil rally going for a little while longer.
one of my readers asked me a question on Gold/Oil ratio. below I have charted SPOT gold / futures oil (continuous contract) – wow, pretty amazing move … take a look at the 1.618 projection target a little higher. that ‘should’ (operative word) cause some resistance. additionally, if we keep this parabolic rise in the ratio then the 12 level on oil doesn’t seem to far fetched, does it? thanks again Ray for the ping … great question and observation. that’s what I see .. hope it helps. Bart
make sure you keep 28.48 key level/node in your toolbox as the volatility continues to run its course …
I’ve been using the all time low on the DJIA in 08/08/1896 – 28.48 as a KEY node responsible for major support and resistance. as you can see in the chart below, it’s been present at the 1987 crash low, 2002 low, 2009 low and most recently the crash low in 2020. also, if we take that all time low and use the high in 2007 as our AB leg then 1.618*AB = all time high on DJIA.
certainly smells like one more leg down to complete a 5 wave sequence. I’ll be watching for the same percentage decline as 2007-2009 or one of the retracement levels that can be derived from 28.48.
for now, w/ so much crazy volatility be aware where these key levels are going to be going forward and, please, make sure you use 28.48.
one more wave of selling appears to complete 5 wave sequences across the board …
net-net appears that this bounce will be followed by another wave of selling .. then, some VERY nice targets appear. would maintain patience until lower targets are hit for a LONG opportunity
this ratio xlp/nya is a GREAT guidepost .. buy pattern complete. if it holds and starts back up expect selling to being again .. KEY LEVEL
for those who follow this blog – remember – it’s all about PATTERNS and I try (operative word) to remove any subjective analysis from the mix. PATTERNS work and sometimes they don’t …
today, at the low on the ratio, we completed a BUY PATTERN. we do have a little lower for other targets to get hit but, essentially, we have a BUY PATTERN complete and, if it works (operative saying), THEN the selling should resume …
if it fails, which it certainly could, then this is a very bullish development and the rally will continue .. patterns like this, when they fail, are usually face rippers so time to hold on and see which way the market Gods would like to go …
note, we are pretty much at the important support zone … can go down into 53 and still have a support zone alive. remember banks lead us down and lead us up .. support here and a bounce should relieve pressure on our equities.
ratio slowing it’s advance .. pay attention for “trade” like support …
we have a pretty big ‘wick’ up at the all time high on the ratio and closed w/ a doji today at the level that’s basically equal to the close on Friday. Basically, even though we were down 500+ the ‘fear’ subsided w/regards to the Staples/NYA ratio. this lack of follow thru is telling .. is the low in place, yet. I HAVE NO IDEA but I do trust this ratio .. until we CLOSE ABOVE the blue rectangle area on a WEEKLY basis I’ll move to a neutral stance in the equity market for now … trading bounce (not necessarily a long term investment buy) appears to be working into the vernacular …
04/10/2020 – trust everyone has a blessed and peaceful weekend. also, please keep staying safe. check in if you have the chance …
couple weeks ago, we showed VERY important support on the HYG and detailed how we can find a pattern by simply Projecting, Extending and Retracing. Where the ratio’s all come together then, well, support or resistance SHOULD (operative word) appear. as I have discussed on this blog, a bunch, it’s all PROBABILITY. No idea which will work or which won’t …in this case support held, the BYG liquidation stopped and the market rallied! GREAT … where are we now.
if you want to go down the worm hole which is Elliott Wave then first pay attention to the corrections! Learn em’ and then try to count subwaves for the rest of your life. I have found the EWT to be very helpful in CORRECTIVE PATTERN ID’ing. The most common? A three wave move that is against the overall trend.
we finished a 3 wave SELL PATTERN on Thursday and, if this level holds then expect the stocks to sell off again. note on the chart below … that’s a MONSTER BULLISH gap … pay attention to this ETF!
note the blue arrow projection – it’s equal in BOTH PRICE AND TIME. the market hit the 84.04 level and now, if the pattern works, it should start back down. a gap down below the gap (bearish island reversal) or a big move back thru it is not a good sign.
HYG is getting thumped. as people who are just starting to read my blog or are long time followers you recognize that, for me, it’s all about patterns. period.
don’t try to use any fundamentals (don’t understand them and not smart enough to …) and just try to find patterns. I love patterns … why? because, they give you a really good set of benchmarks or maps of where you are … when they work, you know where you are and, conversely, when they don’t you also know where you are …HYG is so important to the global financial structure.
i’m up early doing some blogging on the west coast and nothing is going on so I’ll say the 66-69 level is a KEY support level / BUY pattern on HYG. It needs to hold at these levels or things are going to get ugly. (like they aren’t already) buy how did we get 66-69?
P – E – R – PROJECT, EXTEND, RETRACE there are other methods to hone in on this level – square of 9, cycles work, etc. But doing a quick PER gives us a nice level and it’s early this AM so I’ll just leave it at her for now …folks, in the world of patterns it doesn’t get much better than this .. we have 6 ratio’s all coming together in the area highlighted below. trust me that equals a big deal. losing this level and something is definitely a foot at the circle K. that sure is a TON of thrust coming into this level … it does warn of a potential failure of this pattern
PROJECT
Orange: .618 ab=cd and Blue: ab=cd
EXTEND: took three key lows (rectangles) and extended fro those points … 2.236 is square root of 5
RETRACE – there she is, the .786 retrace right in/around the key level
AAPL ‘should’ (operative word) find a support level HERE or a little lower
we all know that AAPL is responsible for a LOT of the point count out there … looking at the XLP/NYSE Index ratio and also the NYSE Index and it’s .382 retracement w/ the measured percentage move of 2000-2003 and the long term log trend line certainly looks like we should find some support HERE and NOW.
if these levels give away, it’s really not a good thing … read that last sentence again … they could very well give away. massive liquidation occurring right now. so … the “levels are the levels” but in this type of environment it’s probably a good thing to wait for a SRC on a weekly basis or something like that …
I’m simply trying (the operative word) to be unbiased and find SUPPORT levels that will stop this insanity. from there we can figure out the type of move (corrective, impulsive, etc.) and make detailed projections .. right now, am using measured moves from weekly/monthlies and then geometry to find the levels.
…. ratio has exploded but appears we are running into stiff resistance
if you want to take a peak at what we’ve been doing w/ the XLP / NYSE Index (Staples/overall market) then search for XLP on the site at the top right of the home page …we very clearly saw the ratio bottom and start back up (which means, on a relative strength basis that staples were starting to outperform (negative for equities)) back in late December and January. what is fascinating to me is the STRENGTH and VOLUME of the candles of late. frankly,they are blowing away the candles from the 2007-2009. it sure looks like, from the ‘big boy lens’ (hedge funds, relative value funds, institutions, etc.) that they are moving into the safer names (staples) in a BIG WAY. I trust this ratio because, as you can see, it’s been responsible for guiding the MAJOR tops and bottoms since the XLP ETF was created back in 2000.
per the chart below, we are in uncharted waters … however, note the blue rectangle areas. if we take these areas and then look at the NYSE Index that I just blogged about earlier THEN we could very well see a sustainable bounce (note I did not say end of the dumping) but a bounce … so, pay attention to the level on the NYSE Index and also the blue rectangles below …
here’s last weeks post on the Asian Open and the YEN. level worked pretty well and we rallied pretty much all week. the USD vs YEN should stay below the 108.46 level and/or 109.866. if (the big if) this sell signal works then it ‘should’ put pressure on the equities:
even w/ the FED cutting rates take note of the key (intraday sell signal) on the bonds … intraday/15 minute chart. we have higher targets but this is the ‘first’ sell signal from the lows back on 3/13.
here’s the potential mirror image foldback I’m monitoring on the NYSE Index. Pretty symmetrical pattern. note the key trend line … that’s a BIG DEAL.
when I came up w/ the support levels last night I certainly didn’t think we would come down into those levels today. not the least bit BUT we did .. ugh. I watched the levels in between calls as the gap came down into our targeted support zone – actually held for a bit and then pierced the level and closed at the low of the days …
so, we’ll get out our pencil, erase, and come up w/ another level … ultimately, this drill is to define/find key support – look for confirmation that a low is in place and then WAIT for a SELL PATTERN to appear to try and get a short on .. try being the operative word.
below you’ll see the key UPTREND trend line from the all time low back in 1974 and in log scale. in fast moving markets log scale trend lines become key as they really help one capture the emotion and velocity of the moves. note we have not broken a key log trend line so the trend is still up …yes I know that is crazy, but that’s the case, for now. certainly looks as we will test that line in the coming days …
1/note RSI below on a monthly basis – we have broken support that defined support levels for the entire move up from 2009. 2/ we should target the dashed blue or orange RSI support – watch those levels. 3/ note the uptrend line labeled “key trend line” 4/ taking the “biggest” corrections ever we can see that they range from 32,38,59 percent for 87,2000-2002, 2007-2009. we are approaching the 30% decline level and right in/around this area is the .382 retracement from the all time low back in 1974. WE SHOULD FIND SUPPORT IN AROUND HERE ….
note – when using an all time low or high to derive a confluence zone its good to go back in time and use that same point and see if it was important in the past .. it was and therefore, the all time low in 1974 ‘should’ be the node to offer support .. .for now. that’s the second chart.
here’s the chart showing the key node and it’s importance in deriving support and/or BUY levels.
there are also two other posts which mention the target in Dec and then early January. resistance? yes! contagion selling? no! so, here we go …
if we take a look at the 2007-2009 correction we can find harmonics to it and go into the past (I’ve done it) and then PROJECT those harmonics on future support …that’s all the chart below is … we have some “standard” fibo’s coming in but we do have 2 ratios (that’s always good) and for me the most important point is they all land right on the key retracement points … so, very quickly, let’s watch that 10250-10400 for some nice support!
if we swing down to a daily it “appears” (see above title for hope) that we are in a 5th wave down so we ‘should’ (operative word) see a bounce here-soon. also, I haven’t updated it but am watching it like a hawk – the USD vs JPY has NOT seen new lows and if that maintains support this selling will abate.
06/08/2020 UPDATE: breakout from a long base and inverted head and shoulders and appears to be going back to the neckline for the BUY. the “low” was right inside a tight “buy” zone depicted below.
yes, I know that even thinking of BUYING TBT in this current market is insane BUT I really don’t care … it’s a BUY pattern that works or doesn’t. i did a quick blog on interest rates last week and those targets were SMOKED by the end of the week action but take a look below and then figure out a gameplan.
please see below:
we have a lot going on here:
Fundamental Frequency: take a ‘major’ high and low or vice versa and divide them. you now have the ‘fundamental frequency’ to define the move … see the purple dashed lines? those are fundamental frequency targets
Square the High: if you take the square root of the all time high you get 17.31 which is basically where we closed
Projections
the market likes to go ‘down’ around 65% per swing
additionally, if look at the foldback point we have the two big blue arrow s equal in their measured moved
Volume – MOST VOLUME EVER. capitulation low? Hmmmm
So, let’s don’t be a hero but … let’s see if the low was in place on Friday OR the market goes down a little more (TBT) into the buy zone of 14-15 and then wait for the market to EXPLODE off these levels and then try to get in .. if the market does a dead cat bounce and well, just goes pfffffffff … then stay away.
the USD vs YEN cross rate is a BIG FX pair to monitor for equity strength and weakness. we had a nice ‘nominal’ 1100 point gap down to the open the DOW futures in Asia and a 20 percent drop in crude. rocking and rolling folks …
as the night progresses, just watch 102.06-103.20 on the USD vs JPY and, a little lower 100.62. We’ve already sliced thru 2 years of support – easily – but do look for these levels to offer a modicum of support over the coming hours/day (s?)
06/08/2020 – harmonics and patterns are amazing aren’t they … sheesh, look at this one that worked out. now, appears 5 waves are complete w/ projections and extensions showing “why” TWLO topped out … might be time to set this one aside, for now.
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can’t believe it’s been roughly a year or so since I blogged about TWLO and used vector math and the Vesica Pisces to generate some targets. I was drawn to the 133-135 level. market went a little higher and since then has been getting beaten up pretty good ..
all that being said, it’s showing one of the ‘nicest’ buy patterns emerging in this chaos right now … and, gulp, it’s still about 30 percent lower to complete the pattern. so, let’s keep this on the radar in around 70-72
I really like an email I get once a week from the Visual Capitalist https://www.visualcapitalist.com/ as they visualize some of the most interesting subjects and break these subjects down for the common man (me) to understand.
I’ve been ruminating (my newest word) on the state of bonds, negative yields, sovereign debt and the like and, it just so happens that the Visual Capitalist did an expose on Interest Rates!
I also follow Martin Armstrong of Armstrong Economics and he posted this graph which shows interest rates are at 5000 year lows. so, per the title of this post, we have a 5000 year trend working w/ regard to the ‘trend’ of interest rates. folks, work w/ me, but that’s a trend!
Visual Capitalist has some great graphics, but they only go back 700 years. Still, that’s a pretty big trend, isn’t it?
Here’s Bond Yields since the 1300’s … another trend that is pretty strong, no?
So, just to paint the picture a little more, here’s a global look at outstanding debt. Folks, it stands at a mere 69 Trillion and counting …for comparison sake, 2 decades ago it was “only” 20 Trillion. Right now, IMF estimates, the debt to GDP ratio is 82%. The highest in human history ….
But, the band plays on … right? All time highs in the stock market, a REPO crisis that NOBODY is talking about, Trillions of derivatives out there that nobody can account for (watch $DB please) and the Euro Zone is a mess. Can one imagine what an uptick of just a 1/2 percent in rates does do the payments/load on 70 Trillion?
Not trying to spread doom and gloom as 1/ nobody would believe it and 2/ the world is drunk on buying equities and 3/ it’s just not worth the hassles.
Folks, it is NOT all good.
So what do we do … well, I’ve told multiple people that BUYING rates will go down as one of the greatest investments of our lifetime. But, do I really want to step in front of a 5000 year trend of lower and lower interest rates? Hell no! And, just because we have a trend that has been rolling since before common era (BCE) there will be a day that the trend stops. Maybe it will be in our lifetime.
Additionally, you can make money intraday, daily, weekly or even monthly buy going long rates. in the past, those are simply counter trend bounces of a 1000+ year trend.
Here’s TLT – 149 to 154 looks like STIFF resistance ….
here’s a monthly of short term interest rates, sitting right on a .382 retracement. IF a STRONG MOVE HIGHER THEN .382 should/could hold it
here’s the 10 year rates chart going back to the 1960’s … only thing I want to note is 1/ it’s been STRAIGHT down w/ intermittent ‘bounces’ but 2/ of late, notice we have pretty much – technically – been forming a key support CLIFF (and it is that ) around 1.5% and it’s been trying to base for around 8 years. nothing from a time perspective compared to 5000 years BUT maybe something for us to watch, closely, for a 40 year wave of lower interest rates?
30 year long bond: not approaching new highs and withing striking distance of a nice “long rates” target zone … hmmmm?
one last … Fed Fund Futures. sitting at .382 … what’s the market trying to say about the FED’s next move? Or what are they telling the FED to do because the FED is trapped ….
so, stay tuned and really pay attention to the fixed income market – globally – and the flow of funds.
I’m flat interest rates right now and, honestly, trying to wait (operative word) for a PATTERN to signal to give it a shot (long rates) I have the same ‘feeling’ I did when the USD vs JPY was down around 75-76. I tried (again the operative word) to go LONG the USD at 76 ish and was stopped out 5 times in a row (don’t judge – it is what it is) and found my P&L go to -18% and my first digestion of investor/trader cryptonite – the draw down.
I like the ‘feel’ I have but don’t like the result from last time w/ the JPY so I’ll continue to be patient. but just wanted to share and be real and honest … while it looks like trading/investing isn’t hard (it isn’t) it’s just not easy.
USD vs JPY is a good proxy for volatility and risk on/ risk off – watch the upcoming level closely for a clue
for those that have been following my posts over the days, weeks and years you know that I try (operative word) to look for patterns that allow for risk controlled entries into and out of the market.
I also like to use the classic CMT world of intermarket analysis to look at ‘other’ markets to understand correlations and how they may affect each other from a bull or a bear perspective.
I’m also neither a bull or a bear. I’m a PATTERN dude. period.
Sometimes the patterns work, sometimes they don’t. they allow one to know where they are are wrong … the key to surviving this investment game.
from a correlations perspective, it is widely known that the USD JPY is a good proxy to look at for equity health or sickness. when the JPY strengthens it’s usually a risk off and equities correct and when the USD strengthens its risk on and the bulls run over in the equity market.
in the case below you can see we have a LOT of confirmations that the USD vs JPY has formidable resistance around 60-70 pips higher.
elliott wave, projections, measured moves, and a host of math come into play from 110.50-111. IF this proves as resistance AND the elliott wave count is correct (a BIG IF) then the equities should correct to finish this final ‘c’ leg of a multi year correction from highs on the USD vs JPY. stay tuned and watch this level closely …
in the fx world, 80 pips can get taken out in minutes or grinding in hours … either way, it’s not that far away.
last post on the EEM was a nice BUY PATTERN: https://bartscharts.com/2019/08/06/eem-big-buy-pattern/ now, we have a larger (purple shaded regions) SELL PATTERN that hit at the beginning of last week. for now, the EEM should stay below the 46.50 area ….
for those interested in PATTERNS I’m using the colors to show how a complete pattern presents itself via connecting the swings. in this case the ‘first’ pattern was a BUY pattern shown by the ‘light blue’ triangles and then the market rallied from that area into the shaded purple sell pattern area …
UPDATE: well today was a pretty smashing day as “days” go but in the big picture it’s really nothing. but, he fact that the NYSE Index hit the target – from the all time low – so nicely, we do have to be defensive as explained, roughly a month and a half ago …
updating the NYSE Index for potential targets and you can see 11500-12100 ish as the most likely move … that’s roughly 7-20%. yes, I know that is a big range but all I’m doing, for now, is looking at past corrective measured moves and projecting down. as can see by the below chart, the blue and red arrows have been responsible for pretty much EVERY correction for the past 20 years. so, isn’t it a high probability that this is where the market will go? Seriously, take a few minutes from your ADD Social Media frenzy to study the chart below … folks, it’s EXACT. EVERY CORRECTION HAS BEEN EITHER THE RED AND/OR BLUE ARROWS. also, take a peak at the 2007-2009 thump. that correction was harmonic to the blue and red arrows being 2.236 (square root of 5 and one of our ratios) * blue arrow and 2.618 (Fibonacci) * red arrow. hence, all of the corrections have been harmonic. now that being said, we have finished a LOT of 5 wave sequences sooooo this corrective move might go a little deeper than any of us think BUT a pattern will emerge to give us an opportunity to BUY … so just chill out, turn off the news and, well, hang on.
rounding out everything from the previous post:
if you have been following my blog of late, I’ve slowed down posting because I was ‘waiting’ for some targets to be hit … it looked like a high level broadening triangle was at work – WRONG. 🙂 and w/ the recent breakout to the upside I had to erase pretty much all of the major indices and, well, go LONG TERM and look for ‘other’ patterns / targets to come into play … well, they have and did last week.
here’s a look at the long term targets that have been hit or are less than 1% away from being hit. if these charts were intraday or daily charts then I would ‘wait’ for 1% but when, in the case of the DJIA, we are looking at a projection a mere 124 years in the making then I’ll take a percent here or there …
in no particular order …
Dow Jones Industrial Average: the all time low on the DJIA was in 1896 at 28.48. Using that low as A we move the line sector AB into the high of 2007. Mulitplying that by 1.618 to get the 1.618 price projection we get 29415. Looks like that was hit on Friday. also, note the dashed green lines going from the all time low up into the 2007 high. same measured move into the 29415 high.
if we put a 14 period RSI on the chart .. yup, we would have bearish divergence present.
New York Stock Exchange Index: take time to study the notes on the chart. bottom line – multiple confirmations (different techniques) of strong resistance
NASDAQ: 1.618 price projection target hit and closed right on it Friday. Also, note we have an overlapping 1.618 extension target hit …
one last, our target zone for the XLP/NYA ratio was hit … continued strength will show the defensive move into staples by the big boys. watch this ratio closely ….
the gifts have been unwrapped and food a plenty has been consumed … the rest of the family is watching TV and were about to go walk the beach. rained last night so no surfing .. bacteria blows.
anyway, I’ve received more than a couple emails asking about the different strategies I laid out in my last post around a PATTERN level and how you could work them into your strategies.
in this case, let’s take a look at the chart below – the NASDAQ composite. I remember, quite vividly, blogging about the 6200 level on the NASDAQ. Why? Well, much like our NYSE Index pattern, you can see that the Nazzie had a very nice pattern from the all time low (AB=CD and 1.27 extension) the market didn’t even pause and blew right thru it …but, notice how it came back and touched it and then exploded higher!
that’s our Traders Tip – this level was ‘hidden’ in that it was a pattern that came from the low in 1974 and also the BC extension from 2000-2002. the market WILL come back to these levels and, the highest probability trade is to trade AT THAT LEVEL and go in the direction of the original break of the pattern. in this case, go long at the level.
notice what happens when we use a .618 projection of the AB leg .. in his case .618 AB at 4238. Just like the AB=CD, the market blew thru it and then came back to kiss it and then off it went … there are examples of this everywhere. the longer the time frame to create the pattern-the more important the level.
one last – notice the 1.618 AB = CD at 9315 … per my last post, around 3% higher, you’ll have a KEY level to trade short, tighten stop if long and wait for a monthly signal reversal candle, or do nothing and wait for a signal reversal candle or wait to see if the market blows thru this level and then patiently wait for the market to return to this level to go long …
I respect and honor all religions … so, Happy Festivus and enjoy family friends over the Holidays.
Bart
also, look at this clear as day SELL PATTERN on the Nasdaq / XLP ratio. when the blue boxed level gets hit, then SELL the NASDAQ. If, the 1.618 Nasdaq projection AND the Nasdaq/XLP level are being hit at the same time, your probability of an important level to short increases.
it’s nothing but a pattern .. in this case, from the all time low in 1974 we have AB=CD. You can see the math below …additionally, we have the 1.618 extension w/ in 10 points of this level. The levels are less than 1% away from each other. to add some more fuel to the fire we can easily see the monthly bearish divergence present on the 14 period RSI and then the key trend line that tagged the October of 2007 high and, most recently, the January 2018 high …
now, I want to explain something about PATTERNS. I’m not calling a top or making a call or any of that. folks, it’s simply a pattern. I saw a expanding triangle pattern on the DOW – that failed. when we look at patterns you can play it any number of ways. you can 1/ take profit if long or 2/ tighten your stop and watch for a monthly signal reversal candle or 3/ short at the level w/ a stop according to your risk patterns or wait for a weekly/monthly signal reversal to get short. then again you could 4/ do nothing … or if you want to get long – wait for the level to be breached to the upside and then WAIT and o a pullback it will come back to that old level and then trade against that from the long side …
so you see, it’s just a pattern and, because of the long time frame that has made these patterns (AB=CD and 1.168 extension) it is something we need to pay attention to …
it’s only 2% higher …
have a great Christmas w/ family and friends. if you celebrate something else, celebrate as GREAT as you can.
here you’ll see some projections and extensions (3.142 and 4.236 respectively) showing the ‘why’ behind the current resistance. would watch a weekly close below the red trend lines as a signal that a deep correction is/had unfolded.
as you can see by my count, I’m seeing this as 3 so after this correction it ‘should’ roll to new highs.
honestly, the strength is palpable and, knowing how much I trust measured moves, was somewhat ‘surprised’ at the lack of respect the Utility sector gave to the ‘math’ and PATTERNS.
so, were at a juncture, again. see the chart below … I did the “how to use what you learned in kindergarten to draw circles and one could make the case that they are not ‘parabolic’ yet.
as you can see, the blue arrows show a symmetrical 3 drives to a top w/ both price and time confluence. reacted a little and then blew right thru it .. failed pattern. now we see a 3 drives and a doomed house pattern … also, did some measured move math and we have the square root of 5 and the square root of 8 present at the high. that’s the math for the resistance ….
a weekly close below the 3rd high in/around 778 is key that we have reached an important high for now.
that being said, this is an important sector to watch for now.
if you have been following me for a while you know I love the XLP / NYA ratio … well, it’s showing a very nice BUY pattern which ‘should’ (if it works) signify a SELL equities.
looks like we have hit the pattern …have some nice timing w/ the ‘square out’ of Venus (H) moving 581 degrees from the high. you see PRICE is TIME is ANGLES and they are interchangeable.
so, from the low we move roughly 58.12 POINTS (price) and Venus from that high moved 581.2 degrees. the other nice ANGLE (angels in the Bible) is the fact that Sun/Venus were at the angle as the high.
anyway, nice pattern here. use a daily close below the .786 as a stop out and a consideration that this puppy failed.
09/12/2019 – market blew thru the pattern level and is very close to setting new highs in the ES. This represents a failed pattern … if you look we have some numbers coming in right below old high but as far as the VERY NICE sell pattern that was present – it’s cooked.
back to the drawing board to look for ANY pattern out there … no idea which ones work or which ones don’t … it’s all probability folks. going to take a look at my trusty XLP/NYSE or XLP/NASDAQ for a clue.
09/05/2019 – sell pattern complete.
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First off – all over the world – have a great weekend and enjoy family and friends.
second, we have another ‘pure play’ SELL pattern developing that could get tagged in the Asian and European markets (US markets closed on Monday)
this pattern has pretty much all the ingredients that the BUY pattern last Sunday night in Asia was hit.
we have a projection (black dashed arrows), a 1.27 extension (square root of 1.618) and a .786 retracement (1/1.27) all coming together …
also, remember square roots and the inverse of square roots ties in the frequency of a string so that’s where the numbers come from …
As Mr. Tesla said .. “to understand the universe think of terms of vibration.”
Yup – Bart
Here’s from a week ago and our last post before some travel
as expected, we are rocking and rolling on Sunday night (08/25/2019) – no doubt it’s going to be an interesting day tomorrow.
as you can see, the futures did gap down, but found support perfectly on the BUY pattern at 2811. this level is key to hold overnight and over the coming couple of days ..
additionally, watch 2785-2787 for “other” support …
when looking for a pattern (BUY or SELL) we do 3 things .. project, extend, retrace.
in the case of CGC we have a ‘zone’ of support in/around 16.50-20 to look for a buy pattern.
the projection – in this case the simple one is the blue arrow and we have the classic AB=CD or measured moves of equality …
the extension is 1.27 and it lands on the .707
the retracements are drawn from multiple nodes (lows, all time lows, gaps, etc) and they all come in around our zone. the .707 retracement is a by product of the square root of 2 = 1.4142 and it’s inverse 1/1.4142 = .707. Square root of 2 is a big deal w/ regards to numerology.
when we put all this together we get the zone sighted above .. .additionally, note that back in 2017 (when it was only traded on the Canadian Stock Exchange) the largest correction was roughly 65%. if we take a look at the dashed red lines we see that same corrective move – 65% – is present in/around our pattern level.
I’m ‘bullish’ cannabis in general and this appears to be a nice opportunity to get LONG CGC.
nice little trendline ‘creator’ that Michael Jenkins taught me .. when the markets start rocking and rolling I like to find out what the ‘true’ trend lines are telling us …
in this case, certainly can make the case that Mars Helio trend line has been important – just look at the chart below.
let’s face it folks, the planets put out ENERGY and leave footprints … ever listen to an AM radio during lighting (the crackling is electric/vibration interference) planets are doing the SAME thing.
they are PERFECT in their cyclic nature and the math that governs them …so, IF they put out a vibrational signature on the earth (tides, menstrual cycles, the MOONth or SATURNday, etc.) then certainly we can’t fight the fact that the subconscious of the entire world is converting longitudinal movement of our rock and the planets into number … in fact, isn’t even every hair on your head numbered? (luke 12:7)
so, we simply take a VERY important low (in this case 03/09/2009) and we add a factor that is equal in price and time. in this case TIME is longitudinal movement of a planet.
we are adding 100 degrees of heliocentric movement of Mars and 100 points of price (666+100 = 766) and where they intersect (PRICE AND TIME) we draw a trend line ..
note, this GEOMETRY has pretty much governed the entire move up from 2009 which has been 3,794 days (that number is important, but more on that later)
so, as we CORRECT ( and I do think this is a CORRECTION) we will be looking for Mars and, perhaps, other crucial trend lines to do their work …
Bart
here’s some other geometry to pay attention to … note ‘extending’ the radius arc to the other side of the circle THEN pasting trendline (mars) to it’s location on the circle nabbed the lows … I’ve added the next key trend line to watch for support …
09/12/2019 – as discussed below, took my lumps on trying to go long TBT. so am watching it to try another LONG (yes LONG) TBT. note the volume spike and also the 52 ish percent moves down seem to cause bottoms. also, take a look at the 30 year continuous chart … we very well could have a BIG LOW in rates. crazy, I know …
well, got stopped out trying a long TBT a couple weeks ago … the entire world is/was cutting rates and that didn’t work out too well for the home team.
but, you know what, the PATTERNS are suggesting rates are or have bottomed (I know, call me crazy) but w/ (the latest numbers) 13 trillion of bonds out there paying negative yields something will/has to give ..
back to the chart .. note pretty much every decline has been roughly 52% except for one which was 66% (52.45*1.27) and we tagged the polarity of the long term LOG trend line … nice little volume capitulation …hmmm.
also, note the foldback point … if it’s the foldback point then we are at the very beginning of, dare I type this, a big move UP in TBT.
I’m going to be in the prove it to me world and look for 5 waves up on a weekly basis before jumping in again BUT am watching this one closely.
like the EEM … big support here. if we lose it, look out below …
note, the 15 minute and 240 minute patterns … it shows the fractal nature of the market and, in this case, we have a pattern (15 minute (orange w/ dashed black outline) w/in a BIGGER 4 hour pattern (light blue)
note, we finished a very nice BUY pattern on the EEM yesterday. it was nice in both PRICE and TIME.
it ‘held’ in/around 38’s but is plowing into a pretty big daily gap. additionally, the THRUST into this level was pretty significant. any further weakness below the 38’s is significant for EEM.
also, note .841 level is based on the equal octave scale of music. 1/.841 = 1.1892 or D#.
the biggest thing that I’m seeing is we are finishing an AB=CD in percentage terms of around 878.48 percent right at the 1.27 extension from the 03/2000 high. throw in a little bit of bearish divergence on the monthly and I’ll surmise we have some stiff resistance coming in from 1684-1856. Note, if (the big if) my count is correct, this is a larger 3 completing so after a corrective / pausing move we should (again the operative word) continue to advance into new highs.
so, for now, I would watch the 1684-1856 zone for resistance. It’s a stretch for the 1.618 extension to happen up in/around 2100 but that could be another potential target on strength.
just providing an update as it looks like the NYSE Index is about to start a ‘corrective’ leg down … then, ultimately, I will be looking for the BUY PATTERN lower (will try to update if/when it comes) and then an attack on the long term target that I keep showing …
below is the XLP / NYA (relative strength using ratio analysis) – note it is going UP which means staples (on a relative basis) are out performing the overall market = risk off mindset. so stay cautious until we finish this fifth wave up …
take note of Tilray (TLRY) and put this one on your radar screens.
we have a big ‘square out’ occurring and this theory is based on the fact that PRICE and TIME are the same thing … so, the theory goes, if we start from a low (in this case) and go up to a high then we have a certain amount of PRICE. (in this case 279 points) so, from that HIGH we convert the PRICE to TIME and we get 279 calendar days and we can also use solar degrees and other ‘stuff’ to look for possible turns ..
so, from the former ATH we have a PRICE and TIME square out and we can also use a technique taught to be my friend Michael Jenkins called the Jenkins true trend line … I won’t go into too much detail but just know that using square roots from price and converting them into TIME produces excellent trend lines …
so, TLRY, might have a bottom in place here and I’ll be looking for 42.13 in the next week or so to give me a clue as to where we are … also, note the log trend line (dashed orange lines) held price all the way down, most recently, price broke above that trendline (bullish?) and did it all around the red trend line that came from the low of the IPO … hmmmmm 😉
from that level, you can see we have had a very nice and orderly advance and, for now, it appears to be in 5 waves.
IF this analysis is correct, we are setting the stage for a multi-month/week advance in ford that ‘should’ take out the 19ish high, at a minimum, and advance well beyond that in the coming months/years.
Basically, this run is just getting started. Look for the 5 waves to finish in around 10-11 and then a pull back – we should buy that.
so where are we now. Pay attention to the bottom formed in the 1990-2000 – it took a decade to consolidate. have not idea if that will occur again but am looking for silver to hold say 12-14 and once Gold finishes the last leg (e) of the a-b-c-d-e triangle then we might get a very nice run in Silver.
I’ve dashed the black box that is ‘looks’ and ‘feels’ like the same fractal that is present right now …note it does squeak out a new low before it rocks and rolls higher. not sure we have anything to do now, but perhaps sometime in June / July the puppy will start to run w/ the bulls.
08/14/2019 – a very important BUY PATTERN is appearing on the Value Line Composite (Geometric). Again, it’s all PATTERNS and we don’t know which ones work or which ones will fail … but we can do IF and THEN statements to get an idea of the trend and where are …
in this case we have a PERFECT BUY pattern.
B = .5 XA and C= .786 AB.
D = AB=CD, .618 XA and 1.27 BD
folks, look how the numbers are ALL on top of each other ….also, take a look at the dashed red line which shows pretty much all of the corrections (measured moves) since early 2018. the entire big correction was 2.236*dashed red (square root of 5) and note the dashed red line hits EXACTLY at our PATTERN BUY level of 486-487.
IF we lose this level then the next logical stopping point is 468-470 and/or 461-462. this level represents .618 projection of the big correction, a .841 retracement (musical note) and also the square root target from the 553 high.
What is a reason to be cautious? THRUST .. that’s ugly looking bearish candles of late coming into our pattern level so make the market prove it to you by looking for a signal reversal candle UP …
Expect the market to find support on one of these three levels .. if not, lookout below.
Bart
last time I blogged about the Value Line was here: https://bartscharts.com/2018/03/04/value-line-geometric-index-another-10-to-go-updated-03-04-2018-2/ note the target zone of late. it STILL hasn’t been tagged so those targets are still out there … I’d put this one on your radar as we got REALLY close to tagging the lower end of the target zone and sold off … any rally above the old all time highs should be met w/ caution due to the presence of the long term targets overhead …
this is a great index to watch for the overall health of the market … In basic terms, the Value Line Geometric Index eliminates an illusion created by cap-weighted index components.
here’s some harmonics using the all time low of 47 and the square of 9
this last leg begins at 152 so I’m going to put that in the center …and I did NOT do this before and then show it .. I’m doing this real time. Just looking to see IF the highs and lows correspond to 45 degree angles on the square of 9 from a PRICE PERSPECTIVE. Since we (at least me) believe that PRICE equals time there is a time component to this puzzle that can also use the square of 9. That’s too much for this blog for now .. but, do yourself a favor and ‘pull’ the middle number UP and then you’ll see a pyramid (yes I’m making reference to the GREAT PYRAMID in a blog about the Value Line) I wonder if the ancient Egyptians tracked planets and seasons and TIME via these same 45 degree increments? Perhaps? Perhaps not …there’s some other neat stuff to do w/ the square of nine based on ‘other’ numbers that are ‘interesting’ or ‘important’ for certain dates or angles. Study ‘cycles’ and you’ll see.
either way, I see some major resistance HERE or a little higher in the Value Line.
Just a pattern dude so don’t try to confuse me w/ all the smart fundamental stuff. It makes my head explode.
blogged about JPM a while ago: https://bartscharts.com/2018/08/30/jpm-and-tops-of-circles/ saw a bunch of geometry coming in around 120 and, thus far the geometry has held for almost 1.5 years .. would stay away until this level is exceed on a monthly close above the 120 level … geometry is holding it …
06/09/2019 – back to our old favorite. you know I’ve been watching this one for a while. I was hawking a low in the ratio in mid-2018 but missed it from a time perspective … then, in retrospect, easily saw the measured move and the .786 retrace. I’m human, I missed it. should have been more diligent – especially w/ the time cycles coming in from the 2007 low. the TIME had worked as support before so why not now …? Oh well.
now, we can pretty nicely see 5 waves up and we are in the 5th wave up .. could be a 1 or an A. only TIME will tell. I feel reasonably certain that after a pullback on the ratio (less volatility, higher stocks) there will be another 5 wave move higher if this analysis is correct.
I’ve also included an overlay of the NYSE Index and the XLP/NYA ratio to show the thesis that – by using patterns to ratio analysis we can find potential inflection points. in this case – staples (XLP) represent a risk off mindset (volatility/selling) when they outperform the overall market (the ratio goes up). when the overall market (NYSE Index) outperforms (the ratio goes down) then risk is on and the market volatility should go down and prices go up. Seems to work …
so, 5 waves up from the bottom, 3 wave pullback and 5 waves up … that’s what were looking for, right now. TIME will tell.
the epicenter of the REPO crisis is DB. DB breaking to new lows is NOT A GOOD THING. ding ding … here comes the REPO train and we DO NOT want to be on it …
need to respect the move UP in Gold last week … was ‘hoping’ (a strategy) that we would see another leg down into the circled area to complete the multi-year triangle and then a very strong move up …
watch over the coming days and especially this week.
Well, the GPRO saga has been quite the ride. I’ve been posting w/ Andy and the gang @seeitmarket since the high at 98. The long long ride down has completed the final lowest target so from here .. perhaps we’ll see it run higher.
note, from our last post in April we correctly ID’d the ‘roughly’ 17-18% move (corrective) up in the GLOBAL DOW and I have annotated “same pattern” to simply show this chart acting like the 2007-2009 period, thus far. the key here is the long term LOG trend line that is coming up from the 2002 lows. would expect, based on the monthly candle forming right now, that it should get tested in the coming weeks. breaking that trend line (MONTHLY close below) would be an ‘other’
as for the US DOW, that’s setting up a totally different and, potentially, bullish pattern so we’ll have to put it all together over the coming weeks.
Palladium and the NASDAQ have tracked nicely .. watch the upcoming target closely
09/28/2019 – we blogged about this long term target back in March. It was hit on Friday. When we have two 1.618 projections and extensions coming together – it should be a big deal. The other to note is the fact that we have what’s called a “butterfly sell” pattern that hit on the daily and smacked right into the long term targets from 1996. If we get a weekly close below the 1604 ish level, then advise to become defensive. Updated charts below:
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would watch the target above, very closely, along w/ the NASDAQ weakness in the coming days/weeks.
March 20th is the Vernal Equinox – first day of Spring (yeah) and from a time perspective is – usually – very important. additionally, we have a new moon/super moon on that date .. my friend and mentor Michael Jenkins taught me that because Vernal Equinox is the start of many ‘time cycle’s we can use numerology to derive potential time and price targets. I know this sounds crazy but as you cans below – it works. 360*8 = 2880. So, on the SPY cash or futures contract in/around that price could be a nice turning point. Knowing this, let’s do some PRICE and TIME conversion. as you can see below when we take 03/20/2019 and SUBTRACT 2880 price we nail the 05/01/2011 high which became a nice 5 wave decline. now, does any of this have to happen – NOPE – not at all. It’s all probability … but, w/in +/- day of 03/20/2019 I’ll be looking for a signal reversal candle to let the market tell me what it wants to do ….either way, enjoy the spring!
The last time I posted about the Transports they were finishing measured moves and the target w/ in around 9700-9800. The index blew thru that area after some consolidation and tapped out around 11, 500. We now have a very nice pattern taught to me by Larry Pesavento – the 1-3-5 and it appears that the index is starting back down. There are two interpretations that I’m showing – 1 is very bearish and the other is very bullish. Either way, in the near term, I expect a pullback and if we get a BUY pattern I’ll buy w/ a stop and if we get a SELL pattern I’ll sell w/ a stop. I’m a pattern dude do I’ll just wait and see …
Kind of cool that the price projection from the all time low from the 1930’s was 1.68179 (F#) and we stopped on the .68179 retracement. In the world I live in (you might not, so don’t worry about it or believe) what’s that usually telling me is the ‘index’ is respecting (OK vibrating) to that ratio and it’s inverse …
The bullish case is that we stopped at exactly the same price point as we did every other time since this powerful move began in the early 2000’s …
have been pretty silent about gold as it has gone up and down and up and down again and again … and, most recently, it’s started back down. folks, this is a complicated correction in Gold. And, mind you, its just that – a CORRECTION in a multi year down trend. here’s the thesis – we are the last wave of a contracting triangle which will then cause a very very strong move to the upside .. but, for now, I believe that will end a C wave and the a-b (triangle) – c correction will be over and another leg down in Gold will begin. now, mind you – this is going to all take months or a year or so to complete but it’s the best interpretation that I can think of, for now … so, near term, if your bullish (which I am near term and am already long) get ready to BUY gold once this ‘e’ leg of the a-b-c-d-e triangle is complete.
IWM – another leg down to complete corrective sequence?
12/1 – quick update to show that the “expect resistance” level has been hit so do just that .. expect some resistance. the form and proportion certainly don’t appear to mean this is the end of a move … I could be wrong, but the thrust and strength certainly suggest higher but not after, perhaps a pause/pullback here in this expected resistance area.
11/22 – nice run from the target area depicted below down in/around 100. You see, we were able to use PATTERNS and some math to figure out a likely “stopping point” or “resistance” for IWM around 173 … we then used a GUIDELINE to pick a nice area where it “could” go. in this case, it did … that solidified a pretty good or solid count of 1,2,3,4 as NO rules were broken and the guideline for the 4th wave worked (this time) so, safe to say, we have a probability that we are in a 5th wave for IWM. as stated on the chart, there isn’t really any form, balance or proportion to make a “good” (in my case that would be very AVERAGE) count …. so, using some “guidelines” I was able to find 181 by using wave relationships and proportionality … in this case 181 represents .618 wave 3 and 1.618 wave 1 projected from the wave 4 low of 95. “expect” some resistance in/around here. but, I just don’t think that it’s it for more upside … stay tuned.
we correctly ID a target zone of resistance and am now looking for another wave down sequence that will, if this count is correct, lead to a great BUY opportunity. I’ve outlined my count in the chart below …
03/17/2018 – I was asked to do an update on $TWLO from a friend and noticed that it has continued to have amazing strength during the sell off a little while ago and during this rally. I also remember doing this intial $TWLO post and thinking, I should show readers/myself the length of the dashed purple price projection .. honestly, I was just too lazy.
Anyway, I went back today and redid the VP and wanted to show the scaling was completely different this time BUT the vectors still came out ‘pretty much’ around the same length …it’s fractal baby. that’s all I can say .. so, I pretty much wanted to show that scaling is ALWAYS an issue but if you do some of the work and the chart shows you it’s respecting’ish the work by support and resistance then go w/ it .. NEVER use the VP as a stand alone technique (I certainly don’t) but use it as affirmation that yes, the market does in fact vibrate and these vectors prove it. at least they do for me …
so, anyway, now you can see the purple vector and then I did some square of nine price and time work (just calendar days), did some patterns (3 drive to a top) and then, yes, (shoot me) I threw a little planet stuff in there looking for similarities in the IPO date and last Friday/Monday … find it interesting as we are approaching the Vernal Equinox, new moon/super moon we have a lot of ‘other’ stuff converging on Twilio ($TWLO)
as always, let me know if you have any questions. I would watch for a weekly SRC to potentially protect profits on this one .. mind you, it has, in the past, gapped up over these targets also. all probability.
My dear friend Larry from http://www.tradingtutor.com.com sent this over so I just fooled around w/ the Bladder of the Fish. The 3 drives looks nice AND the time and price of our vectors sure seems to point at resistance ahead!
05/19/2019 as you can see below, the buy zone was defeated by just a bit but, ultimately, it proved to be good support and the ratio is going UP which shows a risk off mindset w/ regards to the institutions. keep an eye on this ratio as it’s very important and can give us a heads up w/ regard to the overall health of the market.
I put the MONTHLY chart in there to show the much bigger pattern that completed at the lows.
02/28/2019 update: well, the target area shown in the original post was shown and held, somewhat. as the bouncing around started to happen from January 22, 2019 till Feb 21, 2019 it certainly created a nice triangle from the classic EWT. a-b-c-d-e and a resumption of the downtrend. We have rallied a little bit after the breakdown from the triangle (they usually occur in 4th waves – a guideline NOT a rule) so we have either finished or have one more sequence lower to finish – what I believe to be a zig-zag like correction.
if this analysis is correct, then we will bottom NOW or a little lower and the ratio will start to rise.
what does that mean? it USUALLY means stocks will start to sell off.
we are at a key/crucial juncture ..charts below
to show you the ‘power’ of this ratio, I’ve updated a 4 hour intraday chart of the xlp/nazzie ratio (candles) and the nazzie INVERTED (blue line) to show the synchronicity and how well they shake and jive together. note: every inflection point is timed almost exactly. THAT IS WHY THIS RATIO IS SO KEY and HELPS WITH RISK CONTROL
if you have been following me for a while you will know that I really trust PATTERNS and also ratio’s w/ the patterns.
in this case, we have a near PERFECT BUY pattern on our XLP/NASDAQ ratio. Which means, the Staples (a source of risk off for the institutions) ‘should’ start outperforming the NASDAQ from a relative strength basis which ‘should’ cause the NASDAQ to sell off .. IF and ONLY IF the PATTERN works. As you can see below, we have two levels to watch (the one we are at right now) and then one a little bit lower …
my guess (as I NEVER know which pattern will or won’t work) is that the next sell off will occur ‘here’ or the other target a little lower. if we blow thru them w/ power and they fail then it might be game on again .. but let’s not get too hopeful yet. let’s see what our patterns do on the ratio first …
Bart
BUY pattern on the rationote the NASDAQ is inverted (blue line) in this depiction
03/18/20 – last time I posed on the banks you can see this level held and then rallied nicely. it never made a new high. now, take a peak below as we can see a nice support zone that has appeared around 53-57. the 1.618 extension is the low of the day today. the ‘low’ might be in …banks lead us up and lead us down. I see this as a ‘bounce’ but one that is needed …
Well, the support level shown in my last post was defeated on Friday. We also closed ‘below’ old resistance so it looks like ‘polarity’ didn’t work here. All I’m trying to do is find the ‘bounce’ area as cycles suggest into end of January/early Feb.
So, here’s some targets on the NYSE Index that I’ll be targeting over the coming weeks ..
let me know if you have any questions.
Bart
PS – got out in the water today. The swells have been PUMPING of late in SoCal. Good clean living folks, good clean living.
12/16/2018 – take note of the MONTHLY LOG scale on the NASDAQ Composite. I’ve outlined 3 critical areas to monitor on the chart. Also, you’ll see in the second chart that back last March we ID’d the 7600 ish area as the target zone. The market went another, roughly 5% and then ran into another extension ratio. The square root of 3 or 1.732. It did a 173.2 percent extension from 2000-2002. My bust as this fit nicely into an AB=CD projection that was tracking right along w/ the QQQ. And, I know most everyone was unable to hear back in March someone advising caution … no big deal. Anyway, some pretty big support from our LOG trendlines are coming in … it certainly looks ‘heavy’ and as you can see from my previous blog about the XLP/NASDAQ it looks like it has some more room to go … the breaking of these LOG trend lines (on a weekly basis – wait for the end of the week) will signal some heavy selling pressure to come in …
12/16/2018 – as shown before, the ratio of XLP (Staples) / NASDAQ and the PATTERN that completed gave us fair warning of this correction we find ourselves in .. is it the beginning of the ‘next’ bear market. I have no idea. Is it just the ‘buy the dip’ – I have no idea. I guess if you have 50 years you don’t care but if you have 2 weeks you might. It’s all relative folks but we do want to find what the best entry/exit points are as we look to manage risk. that’s all I’m trying to do …
the big institutions have a risk on or a risk off mindset. we hear it all the time. ratio’s allow you to try and get a best guess of where they are … in this case the STAPLES / NASDAQ has helped – a ton.
so, where are we now?Â
KEY: note the blue arrows. those are the extreme moves up in ‘risk off’ for the institution and then, as shown, the ratio stalls and then the band plays on … believe it or not, we haven’t reached that extreme yet so I simply expect the correction to continue until the ‘target zone 1’ is reached. If your a bull then this seems a logical place to stick your toe int he water else watch and wait for a MONTHLY SIGNAL REVERSAL CANDLE. Else, we could go all the way up to Target Zone 2.  Â
12/16/2018 – the banks lead us up and they lead us down. note the polarity shown in/around 84. Also, we have 4 ratios coming in around 79-80. Then we have the 76 polarity level. my ‘expectation’ is that these levels hold for support on the banks which breathes some life into stocks.Â
also, note the RSI. Yes, we are oversold, but not to the very extreme levels yet so would expect 1/ another push into the dashed red line area and, perhaps, a bullish divergence. Would be nice to have this happen in the areas shown.
Believe it’s too early to call any bottom or a the size of this ‘top’ for now so hold em’ if you got em.
the zone we were looking at below was hit … any sustained pullback should be bought. look for increased volume and rotation moving forward.
Â
10/21/2018
F has hit the zone for the projections sighted a few weeks ago. a weekly ‘doji’ has formed but no real bullish divergence. perhaps continue to wait till 4.86 OR a weekly close above 10. all that being said, this area is a BIG deal for Ford (F) ….
if we look at the chart below, we’ll see that LULU was running up in wave 3. for all intensive purposes, it appears wave 3 is complete/completing. I’ve put some initial targets for the correction but these are WAG’s. we’ll watch over time but IF (the big IF) this count is correct, then we should see new highs after the correction is complete.
IF (the big IF w/ Elliott) this count is correct sure looks like this puppy has room to run .. my daughter works there and loves it. Very most excellent business environment and NO I can’ get you discounts.
if you do a search for JPM on this site you’ll see it’s pretty much ‘paused’ at every PATTERN out there but ultimately broke thru and kept going higher w/ strength. Good on em’!
we are again at a PATTERN completing. Top of a circle, 1.618 price projection from the all time low, 2.71828 (natural log (found all over the Great Pyramid OBTW)) extension and some Adams pitch fork trend line stuff ..
so in the world I live in that’s the reason we have stopped in/around the 118 level.
note, when working w/ geometry look at how the market reacted to your work .. the dashed purple circles show how the ‘arc’ was support and when it hit 3 o’clock on the circle it exploded .. this just gives you credence that the arc is being respected.
note on the Adams Pitch fork that the ‘median’ line was responsible for resistance and support along the way up into these levels.
so what’s this all mean? lot’s of math in/around 118 so resistance is expected. is it a top or the top – I have no idea but I’d be watching carefully …
11/20/2018 – so, this ratio is running the show right now. if you read the below NONE of this should be a surprise as the PATTERNS worked and the XLP/QQQ buy pattern has taken off, causing a risk off mindset and the NAZZIE to get blasted. That being said, all is not lost. While I do think we have some more carnage to come, ultimately the ratio is going to smack right into a very strong trend line and the technical analysis concept of POLARITY should cause support or THE bottom for a GREAT BUY. The chart below should give you and idea of why the area labeled ‘resistance’ should offer strong support for the institutions and offer a great BUY of the Q’s and technology.
let me know if you have any questions.
B
10/21/2018
note the ratio .. we have a pretty nice bullish engulfing pattern on the ratio which is precursor to potentially further weakness. If looking to BUY the Q’s would definitely wait for a nice sell pattern or overhead resistance to be hit before stepping in …certainly appears to have some room to run.
here’s the QQQ on a daily time frame w/ the target zone denoted. sure looks like another wave of selling should be starting to complete a 5 waves sequence. Is that A or 1 … if A, then a rally should occur followed by more selling and then a BUY. If 1 then we have, potentially, a lot more downside to come.
I do not know or care which it is ….1 or A. Just looking for a pattern.
Also, doing a monthly log below to look for key trend line support or breaks.
In July, we noticed this pattern completing. Yes, we went 3 points thru but the RATIO held and popped big time today. Watch the median line shown below on the XLP/QQQ and see if price goes thru the line then the sell off could continue.
04/01/2018 – update to ORCL chart below. Looks like it wanted to go up and finish the ‘long term’ projection. we have a monthly signal reversal candle as of Thursday so this one could very well be cooked for now. Still have the upper area for targets but risk is to the downside. Now, I have no idea what fundamentally happened to cause such a sell off. What I can say is that almost 4 years ago these NUMBERS and this PATTERN were forecasted to cause a top/resistance. So far, they have.
I have NO IDEA what will happen next .. sometimes they work, sometimes they don’t. (the PATTERNS)Â Just manage risk and train your mind that it’s all probability.
Also, the second chart is using some of the musical properties of this move. As you can see, the .886 and .841 retracement levels nailed the low in 2002. From here, we can use ‘musical math’ and denote 1/X where x= .841 and .886 respectively. Those numbers (1.1892 and 1.122) are the ratio’s of notes from the equal octave scale of music. As you can see, they were present at the completion of the ‘basic’ projections.
Lastly, an extremely powerful technique shown to me by my mentor and friend Michael Jenkins (www.stockcyclesforecast.com) shows subdividing the signal reversal or DNA of the low candles and projecting up. As you can see, the first projection didn’t work but the second one nailed the high very nicely.
Again, no idea what’s going to happen from here BUT certainly can make the case for a nice correction to come in ORCL.
September 25, 2017 – trust me, back in December 2014 I didn’t have a clue if 53-56 would ever be hit … target area has been hit and I have no earthly idea what the fundamentals are driving this stock or not … watch the MONTHLY close on this one. If we get a MONTHLY SRC, then we could have a pretty big top in ORCL.
03/31/2017 – I like the .786 level in/around 10.95-11.56. Note the percentage change from the 2000 high (-64.69%) and how that same percentage change is present now right at the .786 retracement. We are at 40+ years low on the RSI and some overlapping ratio’s. It’s do for a very nice bounce.
12/7/2017 – see below. it’s pretty darn busted up …
not only do we have the 1.618 extension from 2000-2002 being hit but we also have a 1.27 AB=CD from the all time low and a 3.618 WX=YZ all being hit today. this ‘should’ be pretty significant resistance.
11/03/18 – pretty much a year later and we are, essentially back to the level shown below. While the initial levels shown below did cause a slight pullback the rocketship continued. Now, we have had a nice retracement that stopped pretty much at the .382 retracement from the all time low. Over the next couple weeks I would like a correction like the below to form .. from there we’ll know where we are w/ regard to this rocket ship and, probably, the entire market. Hope the below helps and thanks for asking about NVDA.
also, I do find it pretty amazing that the dashed purple measured move was exactly 1.618 the blue measured move and that is what ultimately stopped this parabolic rise.
11/12/2017 – been almost a year since we looked at NVDA. Below you’ll see the area ID’d for a correction. This level did hold NVDA at bay and the price stayed here for roughly 6 months and THEN EXPLODED. It’s going parabolic so at a certain point, it should fall like a rock but for now the beat goes on …
did some basic price techniques that show this area ‘should’ hold it or cause a pullback. it doesn’t have to but it appears that 1700% moves usually cause consolidations or corrections and, yes, you read that correctly: 1700%. What a rocket ship.
also, you’ll see what happens in the 3rd chart below what happens when the velocity final runs out of gas … it has to fall back down to earth.
——————————————————————————————————————–06/09/2019 – well, from our point labeled ‘e’ it’s been straight down. From an Elliott perspective we are in another wave lower and it sure doesn’t look good for the home team. expect lower prices in the coming weeks, months. this doesn’t look good.
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02/28/2019 – well, pattern recognition says you should always BUY or SELL the first AB=CD in an up or down trend. well, the STOXX Banks are almost there w/ regard to an AB=CD sell pattern. So far, the ‘thesis’ around a multi year triangle has worked which means, ultimately, this index will plunge to new lows lower than 20012. Is the next leg down upon us … if the PATTERN works, then yes. If it doesn’t we’ll CTRL-ALT-DEL and look for another pattern. HEADS UP OVER THERE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC!
05/29/2018 – well, it is certainly not looking good in Europe and, as I just posted, we could certainly be on the verge of a contagion.
Contagion: the ready transmission or spread as of an idea or emotion from person to person. “A contagion of fear” is what we are talking about …
So, you can see we have completed a ‘pattern’ in the 112 area BUT the candles are huge coming into this level so … expect this to give way but for right now, this is a very important line in the sand.
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04/03/2018 – well, after roughly a year, the consolidation broke to the downside and as crazy as it seems, the triangle thesis is still a probability which is, to say it lightly, pretty darn bearish. So, would expect polarity come into play and former support becomes resistance. If we get back above that support around 126-127 then we’ll continue to evaluate. For now, that’s the resistance line in the sand where support now becomes resistance. Good grief … let me know if you have any questions. Man, that took a while to break down!
10/21/2017 – continues to consolidate. at present long term/large triangle thesis is still in play. key level remains 114.18.
*** important development. on the daily chart below a very ‘nice’ BUY pattern is appearing a little lower. IF this PATTERN FAILS THEN perhaps this will cause further weakness in STOXX and start to resolve the consolidation that has been going on for 6 months …
08/05/2017 – recent strength appears to want to take out the 139.67 high. However, the key levels still remain as shown below. A DAILY CLOSE above 144.28 will make me rethink scenario below. Hope this helps …
Bart
07/01/2017 – STOXX banks rallied into the target zone to keep the triangle (monthly) thesis alive. key levels indicated below on STOXX Banks and also the STOXX / US Banking Index. Hawk these levels for strength or weakness.
the KEY here is are we finishing a triangle and this latest leg up represents the final sequence (e) of a,b,c,d,e … the relationship that is giving me a ‘hint’ that this might be the case is the fact that the e is representing .618 of b-c (a common relationship in triangles) on the charts, that is the green line w/ .618 to the right of the green line.
also the ratio of SOXX banks / US Banks is presented. just because a sector might outperform on a relative strength basis does not mean it will go UP because it’s outperforming. in this case, it could mean it goes down slower … or, this move up is complete and US banks to outperform. however, because of the long term downtrend in STRENGTH of STOXX vs US Banks would monitor this closely. A continued increase and movement in STOXX vs US Banks ALONG with a consolidation or a breakout of the blue shaded box shown on STOXX Banks charts could mean important and notable strength has developed. Monitor the ratio for clues ..
Hope this helps and thanks for asking and visiting the site .. let me know if you have any questions.
04/01/2018 – update to ORCL chart below. Looks like it wanted to go up and finish the ‘long term’ projection. we have a monthly signal reversal candle as of Thursday so this one could very well be cooked for now. Still have the upper area for targets but risk is to the downside. Now, I have no idea what fundamentally happened to cause such a sell off. What I can say is that almost 4 years ago these NUMBERS and this PATTERN were forecasted to cause a top/resistance. So far, they have.
I have NO IDEA what will happen next .. sometimes they work, sometimes they don’t. (the PATTERNS)Â Just manage risk and train your mind that it’s all probability.
Also, the second chart is using some of the musical properties of this move. As you can see, the .886 and .841 retracement levels nailed the low in 2002. From here, we can use ‘musical math’ and denote 1/X where x= .841 and .886 respectively. Those numbers (1.1892 and 1.122) are the ratio’s of notes from the equal octave scale of music. As you can see, they were present at the completion of the ‘basic’ projections.
Lastly, an extremely powerful technique shown to me by my mentor and friend Michael Jenkins (www.stockcyclesforecast.com) shows subdividing the signal reversal or DNA of the low candles and projecting up. As you can see, the first projection didn’t work but the second one nailed the high very nicely.
Again, no idea what’s going to happen from here BUT certainly can make the case for a nice correction to come in ORCL.
September 25, 2017 – trust me, back in December 2014 I didn’t have a clue if 53-56 would ever be hit … target area has been hit and I have no earthly idea what the fundamentals are driving this stock or not … watch the MONTHLY close on this one. If we get a MONTHLY SRC, then we could have a pretty big top in ORCL.
7/14/2018 – some nice thrust out of the ‘e’ point gives us a higher probability that the triangle thesis is working. IF correct then expect equal-above 122 to be the initial target for this leg that should go higher.
once prices get above 122 I would be defensive as triangles ‘usually’ occur in a 4th wave so this should be an end of move once we thrust above the old ATH. I’ve updated the chart w/ a longer term look at a POTENTIAL count on Disney over the comings months/years.
05/16/2018 – with the past couple of days thrust, let’s call the triangle complete and, therefore, over the next couple days/weeks/months expect the ATH of DIS to be taken out …. that being said, triangles tend to occur in 4th waves so a much larger pullback will occur after this run to new ATH.
this analysis is wrong IF we lose low 90’s to the downside for now.
Bart
03/17/2017 – well, I just went thru the Disney content below and, amazingly enough, most (if not all) the levels held as support and resistance BUT it appears these levels have formed a big old 30+ month triangle. Amazing, this puppy topped in August of 2015!
so, the classic triangle is 5 waves labeled a-b-c-d-e. “Would like to see here or a little lower hold and then start back up for new highs on Disney in the coming months. a close below (on a monthly basis) or lower trendline would make this analysis suspect.
a much more bullish count is potentially shown below.
bottom line is this appears to be a classic triangle w/ 5 waves a-b-c-d-e and ‘should’ move higher upon ‘e’ resolving here or perhaps a little lower
09/09/2017 – Disney is getting some attention of late and it’s been a while since I blogged on this American Icon.
Here’s an update:
DIS monthly
Note, the technique used to find resistance and support w/ the Adam’s pitchfork. When using the pitchfork, sometimes (it’s an art not a science) we take the 3rd point of the pitchfork all the way down (or up) to the low (or high) price forming the geometry. You can see that the pitchfork medium (blue center line) caused the resistance.
Now, it certainly looks like Disney (DIS) should go higher after this pullback. Â I LOVE it when PATTERNS smack right into Square root targets which are also a square number 9*9 = 81.
watch 81 ish as a level of support to begin another leg up on DIS. if we break that second blue line medium fork area then something is really wrong
DIS daily
note, the market went right up and closed the gap perfectly … it then completed an AB=CD (dashed black line) and has rallied IN A 3 WAVE SEQUENCE … EACH MOVE THUS FAR HAS BEEN 3 WAVES AND, NOTE, THIS CURRENT WAVE IS 3 WAVES (FROM 116 TO 96) … ALL 3 WAVES CAN BE SETTING UP FOR A TRIANGLE (POTENTIALLY) SO THIS AREA HIGHLIGHTED 93-96 WILL TELL US A BUNCH. Â If we lose this area to the downside (weekly close below the area w/ thrust perhaps) then we’ll open up the 81 level.
DIS definitely under pressure, next couple days/weeks should resolve where we are …
Have a good weekend, off to paddle board.
B
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I know, shorting Walt Disney World ($DIS) is probably un-american but just calling it like I see em’ …
Below you’ll find a chart showing the parabolic lift off of $DIS. Â Note, the Adams Pitchfork. Â I made the lower point equal to the all time low and that provides the geometry for “copy” and then “pasting” the pitchforks on top of each other. Â You’ll see the median line tagged the high … pretty cool technique to trade/in around. Â Also, take note of 4.236 (1.618^3) right around the top. It’s an old axiom that bull or bear runs “like” to go 4.236of the initial impulse move. Â We’ve done that …
next you’ll see the pretty darn big gap that $DIS left as it tagged it’s all time highs and then fell. The blue rectangle is the area still remaining to be potentially be filled. Â you can see that it went up on Friday and filled a little bit of the gap, but not all of it.
the next hart you’ll see a very nice “sell” pattern that completed on Friday.
note, the prices bounced nicely off the long term Pitchfork (extended 1.27) and w/ the RSI buried deeply, this ‘bounce’ might surprise some as we work off an extreme oversold (monthly) condition since 1985. I still hold out that we have a MAJOR top in the Bond Complex and this is an opportunity to go long rates (short bonds) in the coming weeks.
this ‘trend line’ is the line in the sand w/ regard to bonds and the rate complex.
Bart
02/10/2018 – update.
note: a potential H+S MONTHLY top for the long bond along w/ a crucial adams pitchfork trendline make the area we are at RIGHT NOW crucial for the bond complex moving forward.
is Molly Hatchet – Flirting With Disaster – on the horizon?
here’s the daily chart updated showing target area was hit …
06/20/2017 – tracking SLOWLY up to the desire short zone. Â IF (the big IF) we are correct here the next move down is going to be very very strong. Â Hold onto your hats. Â A hint that the ‘thesis’ is wrong is if we blow thru the highlighted area. Â We shouldn’t …
as you can see below, we thought the 11-12 wave promising but the form, proportion and balance hinted of one more lower … that proved to be the case and the 9’s held. I’ve included another nice timing tool. sometimes – you have to play w/ it as nothing is perfect – you put the radius vector underneath the high instead of using the low to high vector. where the circle lands at the 3 o’clock position AND a pattern is visible you have a nice time component …
anyway, IF (always the big if) the count is correct this puppy could roll into the high 20’s and shoot for 28 believe it or not.
look to buy the first pullback …
Bart
07/21/2018
Note, ABX completed a nice buy pattern at 11.10. the 11-12 area is promising BUT wave counts could have 1 more move lower into the mid 9’s . either way, believe the next larger move is higher for ABX. if you look at the charts below, you’ll see the ‘reason’ for the low in the 6’s.
keep this one on your radar screen.
Bart
04/11/2016 update: ABX gap up today was impressive. this puppy is on a tear ever since it closed at the low of 6.18. HA … pretty cool.
going back in time, here was the set-up.
$ABX – NOTE the bullish divergence 2 years in the making
So, again, PATTERNS fail and PATTERNS work and it’s all about managing the risk. Â NOTE – it went below the “actual” pattern by 60 cents or so but “ultimately” close right at 6.18 (.618) Â It’s a Friday and, frankly, I’m too tired to figure out “why” it stopped where it did … but, trust me, there is a reason.
have a good weekend …
B
PS — note, looks like a we are in a 3rd of a 3rd so a pullback “could be coming … believe 18-20 dollars is a very nice target to shoot for. Â Will watch over the coming weeks.
My friend/mentor Larry shot an email over describing the current state of the NASDAQ composite.
Friday’s move represented only the 3rd time the Nazzie was down more than a two standard deviation – in one day. The last time happened – October 1987.
I DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNS OF A CRASH COMING BUT … an interesting factoid, one would think.
We have VERY important support coming in lower in/around 13750-14000.
Not enough of a pullback to do a good projection so … just watch the measured move level (read arrow) and then the confluence levels shown below.
