Crude Oil – April 8, 2026
Apologize for being absent for so long during this volatile time. Honestly, moved into a new start up doing amazing things and, while I’ve certainly had my one eye on the market every day, I really haven’t been paying attention to it because, well, even though a TON of long term targets were hit and the volatility is pretty wild, it really HASN’T broken down …yet. I say yet, not as a fatalist, not at all. But just from the fact that our brothers and sisters in Egypt are w/out power – right now. Yup, they cut it. Look it up … Over in Asia, fuel shortages and rationing and minimal work days. The supply chain has been severely disrupted folks and, once again, if you are in the US we are sitting pretty – for now – due to our energy independence and a host of other things. And, trust me, that’s just me looking at it objectively. This is going create a rougher patch than the ‘glancing flesh wounds’ that are hitting peeps here and there … in the immortal words of the Dude “well, that’s your opinion man …” Yup and that is all it is …
So, w/ all the emotion flowing around I thought I’d take a look at Crude. Haven’t looked at it for a LONG time. Why? Mostly, because I didn’t know what to do w/ that -40 ish price. Yeah, no kidding … but, tonight, I just went “screw it, that was a price, so it counts.” Certainly appears to work …
What’s pretty amazing? In the height of, one would say, emotions like those who remember living thru 9-11, this conflict with Iran ranks up there in the “big deal” world. Guess what, the ratio’s and patterns are present throughout the conflict! Don’t believe me? See below … fractals peeps, it’s all fractals.
Ultimately, we will realize that the ‘seed’ is EVERYTHING. That initial measured move vector from an IPO or a big low or high contains the ‘DNA’ for that security. It has to be that way … just like the entire universe, that DNA creates a harmonic musical representation of the vibrational interactions of anything or anyone interested in said security at the quantum level which then creates the summation vibration of those emotions represented in price and time. Guess what, nature does the same thing …
So, after letting the emotional vibration play out in both fear and euphoria …they have left us THE seed to now manage risk in this insane environment. You see what happened there …? While you go thru the same emotions as those actually trying to trade these insanely volatile moods, you contribute to the footprint that is being left on the charts but you have the discipline to wait. So, you wait for the emotions – for this particularly security of Crude Oil Continuous Futures – to form the measured moves which are now your graphical representation of – get this – the vibration associated w/ crude oil and this current conflict. Yup …
Now, ALL futures moves in this emotional environment will be harmonic to the footprints left behind by the masses. Below is our first attempt to harness that information:
Credit Markets – March 05, 2026
Picture this chart as a simple comparison between risky junk bonds (HYG) and safe government bonds (IEI), but shown as a “spread” or difference that highlights how much extra reward investors demand for taking on risk. When the line on the chart heads down, especially along those important grey trend lines, it means junk bonds are losing value faster than safe ones—investors are getting nervous and preferring security over high returns. Right now, with interest rates appearing to rise (making borrowing more expensive for companies), this downward trend could signal bigger problems in the credit markets, where businesses rely on loans to operate. Higher rates squeeze companies with lots of debt, and if they struggle to pay, it might lead to more defaults, just like we’ve seen in past economic rough patches.
Recent news from early 2026 is buzzing with worries about the private credit market, a massive $2-3 trillion area where non-bank lenders provide loans to businesses. For instance, experts fear the private credit bubble is about to pop due to rising investor withdrawals and firms like Blue Owl selling off loans to meet demands. Private credit stocks are signaling more pain ahead, with market volatility adding to the stress. Concerns are growing over the market’s rapid expansion and risks, especially in a higher-rate environment exposing weaknesses. Blue Owl’s recent stumble is reviving fears of a Bear Stearns-like moment, with default rates jumping. Investors are anxious about cracks in private credit, driven by AI pressures on sectors like software and broader economic uncertainty. If rising rates keep pushing this spread lower, it could mean tougher times for the economy, so watch how companies manage their debts
I will be watching the two ‘grey’ trendlines … a daily close below the lowest trend line (dashed) will definitely make the hairs on the back of my head stand up.
January 25, 2026
Spent the weekend pre-reading the upcoming novel by Alan Green – America Codes. Appollo to Artemis. Trump and Pope Leo XIV Prophesied in The Declaration of Independence.
You read that correctly.
I am changed from reading this novel … the perfection of this 3D Holographic Matrix of Consciousness is beyond description. It’s truly perfect … anyone following this blog will have to read this book. It will change you … Egypt, Shakespeare and the Declaration of Independence all interconnected in ways that will transcend your mind.
How about this … it HAD to be 1776. There is only one year that would have worked when we look at the locus of the moon and sun distances from the earth and calculate the speed of light (Remember folks GOD said “Let there be light …!” Genesis 1:3 or Genesis 1:111 perhaps …
That’s our first vibration … and when the last word “light” was spoken, that became the first radius. From there … we connect it thru time/space by the eternal cycle represented by the circle. We can’t divide perfection so we double it … the two intersecting circles become the Vesica Piscis (“bladder of the fish”) which creates the initial VECTORS for the square roots of 2, 3, 4, 5 … the 7 days of creation in Genesis? That’s the first 7 circles which create the seed of life. We now have the ratio’s present to create everything w/in this 3d world that we need. Creation occurs by the finishing of Metatron’s Cube. Metatron, the Arch Angel responsible for ALL of the geometry across all dimensions of existence was, at one time, a mere mortal like us …remember John 14:12?
Well, who was Archangel Metatron? … that would be Enoch. A descendant of Adam and the Great Grandfather of Noah. Yeah … he’s also the main figure in the BOOK OF ENOCH. (recommend you go and read it folks … it’s still in the Ethiopian Bible but was struck from the King James during the council of Nicea in 325. Why? ;)) The book of Enoch is where John Dee downloaded the Enochian tables and that was the encryption method used to encrypt ALL of Shakespeare. Yup … Shakespeare was baptized 4/26/1654. 426 whose mirror image is 624. John Dee faked his death on June 24th. There are 624 characters in the Enochian Table.
Folks you might want to brush up on your mythology and learn about this dude …
To the markets …
Bitcoin …our target level in the low 70’s still stands as the zone to BUY. Big question is, and I REALLY don’t know, new highs or a corrective bounce. If you think El Coin is going much higher then roll w/ it but it you think we have another leg down then this is a scalp BUY.
Or, BUY here and see if the ‘first’ SELL PATTERN works or not … ? Reasonable …
Folks … have to be aware and watch what is going on in the Land of the Rising Sun …
Silver is ROLLING … I like this count so expecting some resistance here/little higher BUT we are buying any pullback. Month or so pullback …? If long, stay long.
Folks … here’s the deal w/ Silver. A LOT of the Banks are SHORT SILVER so … it’s pretty cool to see all the pattern prices being hit on the banks as this is all happening. Check this one out on JPM:
You can see the key level for the banks – and- truth be told – the entire market to be honest by the “this is the key support” – guess we’ll have to wait and see.
Figured I put this one out there … the Global Dow. What am I missing … sure looks like in the life of this index, there hasn’t been one move higher than the blue measured move.
New Car or Toilet Paper? January 14, 2026
Ratio analysis, you gotta love it …
Last night we showed you a bunch of charts. The most important, at least for me, was the chart of the XLP/NYA ratio. Been blogging about this target zone for a WHILE. Was getting really sick of it to be honest :), and, remember, the PROJECTION lies right on the .786 so ‘ technically’ it hasn’t been hit but, I’m making the call based on the PRICE and TIME confluence (price being percentage same).
Here’s another one popular among technicians. Discretionary / Staples.
Discretionary – I’m going out and buying my NEW CAR! Let’s go the bull is on ….! woot …
Staples – everyone needs TP, propane, toothpaste, etc. The ‘staples’ of life. Ain’t nothing discretionary about that!
So, when the chart is going UP UP and AWAY life is good …when it’s going down, not so much. Not surprised to see it has been going down the past couple days/weeks (kind of makes sense) but what I did not expect was the PATTERNS that are completing to be present like they are. Especially in light of the beautiful BUY pattern present on the XLP/NYA, the financials topping at their measured moves and the YEN did not go above the pattern we were discussing last night. Well, ok then …
Folks, we have an ABCD (monthly) and a BUTTERFLY (perfect CD leg in price and time) along w/ a three drives to a top pattern. WOWZA …in normal terms, it appears that people aren’t going to be buying their new cars anymore because this ration has smacked into HUGE resistance.
Last, look at the harmony w/ the ‘monad’ to the left of the screen. All the moves are harmonic to the solid blue arrow. Just stop and try to comprehend, what is going on here … this chart is bouncing around – somehow – with harmonic fractals to the measured move that nailed the top. Even look at the ‘red’ corrections – yup, the same.
Then, it does all go back to geometry:
Folks, pull the plug, the tops in.
This analysis is wrong if the .786 level on the XLP/NYA breaks down w/ a daily (or weekly for more conservative) close below this level.
Oh, and don’t forget, it’s just a pattern. 🙂
Some charts … January 13, 2025
Shown this one a couple times … certainly looks like we are getting or at the VERY crucial resistance level on the KBW.
Same picture, sort of, w/ the XLF:
Folks, I’ve been blogging about the banks/financials – they lead us up and lead us down. Until “they” crack this fragile march up the wall of worry can continue. That being said, these charts are showing the measured moves associated corrections in the past are appearing, now.
The two charts above also exhibit a clear 5 waves … hmmmm.
Well, how about JPM?
Note, this is a Monthly, since IPO, chart of JPM. Also note, it’s LOG scale so we are dealing w/ percentages .. you can always tell by looking at the right (or left) price margin. When it’s normal spacing you are using normal scaling but when you see big jumps like above – that’s LOG scaling. Well, guess what? ABCD on LOG scale works also! So … couple converging trendlines w/ a projection pattern complete. Note, remember the above about the KBW/XLF.
Well, what else is in the news folks? Silver …yes, I’ve been tracking silver and nailed the LOW in silver (folks, it was just the same correction as the last one ..) at 11 and said ‘it will go to new highs.’
Well, now is the true confessions time … I’ve been doing some fundamental reading (woah, what?) about Silver simply because it’s a weapons system w/in the already started cognitive 5D global war which is raging around us. If you don’t think that, well, “that’s your opinion … (pause) ….man” The Dude . There is SO MUCH GOING ON RIGHT NOW FOLKS ON MANY DIMENSIONS that its hard to keep up. We are living in the most AMAZING TIMES. Period. Dot. So, the reading has helped me understand some of the moves occurring right now … but this euphoria? Well, another confession time, I went to the long term futures chart below many times and ‘in my mind’ labeled it an A-B-C long term pattern. Why?
Folks, sometimes, I just simply don’t see it. Well, when the ABCD failed – BIG OBTW 🙂 – on Silver I went to the futures chart and said could this be a 1-2 ….? And we have started and are in a WAVE THREE OF THREE? And, that my friends, it exactly what this looks like. I’m bummed I went to the dark side and read some socio-economic and foreign affairs articles about Silver because what I’m about to say really does sound funny because it’s pretty outrageous.
I could easily see Silver, from a long term perspective hitting 200 dollars in the coming days.
Here’s why:
This charts goes back to 1972 folks and, IF my count is correct (obviously the big if) THEN we are going to have a pullback soon, but folks, you want to BUY THIS PULLBACK and I will be hawking it to BUY also as we haven’t even finished wave 3 yet. SILVER IS A BUY. Woah …. IYKYK. The chess match for precious metals has just got a lot more interesting, hasn’t … 200 dollar silver? Again, WOAH.
PS – remember my counting, I try. Give this a 70 percent change of being right? Maybe? 🙂
This was a pretty wild sequence on Lockheed. I had ID’d this pattern a week or so ago and I was on X w/ Ponch and we talked about LMT PATTERN and how it would probably fail (w/ the war and everything) but just look at it and remember what Trump said and then the budget request so … it bounced right off the pattern. Crazy.
Here’s what the pattern failure looks like on a Monthly. There is some resistance approaching but, w/ the big Department of War (why Department of Peace?) asking for a HUGE increase in Defense Spending … yeah, I’m thinking we might pause here or something but this puppy looks STRONG.
BOOM, there’s a PATTERN FAILURE for ya, near real time….
Here’s a fun one – DBA. I’m still long from the low and am thinking higher but we did just finish and ABCD (or close) … two key levels.
Check THIS one out on AMZN. Woah boy …
Folks, check out the measured moves and the harmonics of those measured moves … ZERO technical indicators, zero fundamentals just ‘measured moves.’ Could these be attractor states? Hmmm … if the SAME price movement occurs over and over and over again then … just like the flock of pelicans that came zooming very close by me as I was surfing this AM at Del Mar. (note – it was GLORIOUS) but think about it, just for a second. The pelicans were cruising the waves, or more likely, the air flow that moved due to the energy which is causing the wave to crest and crash producing a ‘force’ that energy can tap into. Wow … or the pod of dolphins which also came thru and I made eye contact w/ one and it was … let me just say, very cool. Even this Sunday, I had 3 dolphins surfing w/ me. Yes, actually surfing the waves and one of them flipped out of the wave as to say “cya dude.” I said to myself “cya dolphin dude.” It was cool … Anyway, these measured moves repeat. If we can find the MONTHLY long term measured moves then we can calculate those moves and there harmonics which is simply noting more than – the ratio’s created from the Vesica Piscis. Wow, pretty cool. I’ll stop for now.
Take all that and here wave have AMZN. Hmmmmm … two projections with extensions make this THE key level for AMZN going any higher in the near term. Would really like to see it go up there and tag that level.
Finally, the ratio appears to be putting in a pretty strong “hammer” candle and, technically, it was in our ‘target zone’ but I do wish it will go down and tag the projected area that we have been watching for months. That being said, looking at the charts above and some others one has to consider, the pattern complete. So, IF the XLP/NYA ratio has bottomed on a MAJOR MONTHLY pattern that has, in the past, been reason to ‘baton down the hatches’ as a correction is coming.
Here’s the link discussing the ratio from a few days ago: https://atomic-temporary-44460632.wpcomstaging.com/2026/01/05/orientation-update-the-ratio-january-5-2026/
And would you look at that … Mr. Measured Move in percentage terms:
Woah … yup.
What about the USDJPY? Exactly … here ya, go real time:
This is actually a PATTERN called the “crab” where the projection hits the .886.
IF the USD blows thru this level THEN that will give some relief for the global macro picture. It’s just hit the level folks …watch this level closely, because, remember, it came after this:
Remember … ? Man, that was a year and half ago! The YEN complex just blew up w/ strength – it was all the patterns. But, some of them have failed so … maybe this does also and off we go? It does work the dollar strength thesis. Again, keep an eye on this for the sole purpose of the carry trade.
KEY: The FX market is the LARGEST market in the world. When I first started trading the FX market it was something like ‘every stock, bond, commodity, futures market would have to trade continuously 90 days to equal one day of liquidity on the FX market.
Here’s what GROK says: Based on the most recent data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) Triennial Survey, the average daily turnover in the global FX market reached $9.6 trillion in April 2025.
So, the pattern at play, right now, is going to be KEY. Watch the USDJPY and the entire YEN complex, closely.
Let’s just consider the pattern on the XLP/NYA complete. Which means, support has been found on the XLP/NYA ratio:
We should all know what that means … it’s time to get defensive. Now.
Cut all your positions and run for the hills? I’m not saying that, I’m saying, you might want to take some profit or you might be living thru another round of dollar cost averaging but what if … just if …this was/is a BIG TOP. Hmmmm … guess we’ll just have to wait and see.
Watch for a weekly or monthly signal reversal candle before doing anything too crazy but if we do get them … I would take it seriously.
Orientation Update – the ratio – January 5, 2026
We’ve been watching this ratio for over a year and never thought the BUY pattern would get tested. Certainly looks like that will happen.
This is THE level to watch for the market to continue its climb or correct … it’s that simple.
Orientation Update – BITCOIN January 4, 2025
Sure appears that Bitcoin is going to propel higher and, perhaps, make a new high.
First test and, if bearish, should offer significant resistance is below. If we gap and go above that or just smoke thru it w/ ease then our map is orienting us to new highs in Bitcoin. Yes, I was looking lower for a VERY, near perfect, BUY zone in the 70K’s but w/ everything going on, it might not just get there. We’ll see … don’t forget that MSTR chart either. They kinda move together …
Hmmmm … we are dodging the gorillas w/ the dynamite and the short fuse right now. Isn’t this fun?
Orientation Update – TSLA – January 4, 2026
Thus far this count has worked … since we made a new high and smacked into the 1.27 extension and a clean 5 wave count can be seen, perhaps it’s time to take some profit on TSLA?
Orientation Update
Folks, not even going to pretend I know what direction Silver is going to go or IF my thesis about the first wave (of a lot more) in Bitcoin being complete and if MSTR is going to hold this major pattern. I don’t. They are just patterns and I’m trying to connect the dots the best I can. My frustration is “time” in that I know I could figure out the synthesis of time but, honestly, I’m waiting for a technology to appear and then I’m going to DUMP all of what I’ve studied the past 24 years into it and, I honestly think, it will be unlike anything ‘out there.’
The big key is thinking in the terms of OBJECTS (time as an object) and fractals (time as a fractal) and then the logic (help start a Virtual Reality software company 20 years ago – maybe THIS is why? 😉 of how to fuse the different disciplines of time computations (planetary, calendar/trading day, fundamental frequency, tides (yes, I said it – the tides), planetary returns, etc. etc. … so in this analysis I did a ‘little bit’ of time for MSTR and the ‘fractal’ of the golden mean is present w/ regards to trading day time and with the ‘Gutenberg Press Moment’ occurring in the Silver market globally, along w/ the FED playing Mr. Repo again, Japan raising their rates, Venzuella, China, Russia, Minnesota … I thought that this ‘time component’ is particularly compelling because, as of THIS day, China (worlds largest exporters of Silver peeps) is no longer allowing Silver to be exported out of China w/out strict controls. Yup, you read that right AND, as a former CFA (yes I played a Commodities Futures Advisor in a past light managing a small Spot FX account in … 2004-2009 (I WAS UP – but everyone had to roll their money out to cover losses!) I can tell you that something is amiss at the circle K when the physical (dare I say ‘real’) price is MUCH higher than the PAPER. (NY and London)
Now, call me a conspiracy theorist BUT are we, dare I type, seeing the first salvo of a global reset and economic warfare? Folks, just think about what’s going on right now …
Venezuela – big buddies? Russia, China … not big buddies? US
Silver – BIGGEST EXPORTER? China … paper players (paper tigers?) US, London
Back when I was being taught by Mr. Joe Dinappoli (www.fibtrader.com) he once said “never forget, YOU as a retail trader are entering into a cage w/ Gorillas that are mean, angry, hungry and are carrying lit dynamite!”
Folks, the dynamite has been burning for a PRETTY LONG TIME and the fuze is getting short.
Happy 2026 …
Be sure to have a stop in place for this one … (below the ‘green support’ is advisable) After reading the above … what if Bitcoin becomes a ‘real’ asset as the global gold/silver monetary value, along w/ a continual rise of the BRICS (precisely due to Russia being kicked out of the USD due to the Biden Administration) economic value, not to throw in natural disasters galore (more on that later if you would like ;)) and we have what is called a volatile situation.
This MSTR BUY could explode w/ a BIG RUN in bitcoin higher based on everything going on …
Ratio’s – December 14, 2025
I didn’t know what to call this post, so I just put the date.
Over the weekend, I read everything from “we have another 4-5 years in this bull run” to an Elliott Wave label of a Grand Super Cycle III and my good friend and mentor Larry (trading daily for the past 50+ years) talk about a monster top here or inbound.
I
DO
NOT
KNOW
Just looking for a pattern … the CLEANEST PATTERN I SEE IS MY OLD TRUSTY XLP/NYA.
First, take a peak at this ‘static’ cycle – it was near perfect for about 15 years and then, w/ the recent cycle, it has failed. Hmmmmm ….
So, one would think w/ the measured move, the ‘timing’ and the patterns that we would have seen a more pronounced sell off. We did for a little bit but it still didn’t appear to be the ‘real pattern’ – that was lower.
Over the past year it’s been pretty frustrating, at least for me, in that I had a ‘bearish’ bias since the patterns that were completing was from years ago and sometimes 100’s of years ago. Why not at least expect a nice thump … well, some of the patterns have held, others worked in didn’t, some got smoked and some are still out there ….
This pattern, a little bit below is MASSIVE in it’s ramifications. From a simple ‘chart’ perspective it’s the first MONTHLY ABCD BUY PATTERN that is simply near perfect.
So, for my BULLS out there, you want this pattern to fail and if you can take all the gyrations that appears to be happening in the market I would hold your longs until the “short stocks” level.
And, for the BEARS, it certainly looks like the play to keep your sanity is to WAIT for the “short stocks” level to be hit on the ratio. Then, you have a well defined zone to understand your risk. We could be starting down hard … some think so. As discussed earlier, I have no idea. Nope … but, that level is SO BIG and we have so many ‘bearish’ fundies coming into play …
I sense a nice top is here or coming ….
Hey Grok – what’s Mr. REPO up to …? UPDATE January 01, 2026
Folks, it’s getting very interesting …keep an eye out on Mr. REPO.
————————————————————–
Folks, don’t take it from me …
Me: Grok, you are the worlds greatest institutional trader to the like of Mr. Martin Armstrong .. explain the importance of this picture and, what to make of the BIG spike in overnight repurchase agreements? Explain this naturally, w/ humbleness and to a high school level of institutional trading and sector rotation. Could this many banks or funds be liquidating the carry trade?
Grok: Hey kid, pull up a chair – let’s talk about this chart like we’re just two traders staring at the screen on a quiet December afternoon. I’m not here to flex or pretend I’m smarter than the market. I’ve been wrong plenty, and the market has humbled me more times than I can count. But this picture… this one is screaming.
What you’re looking at is the amount of overnight repos the Fed is actually having to do – meaning primary dealers (the big boys – JPMorgan, Goldman, Citi, etc.) are showing up at the Fed’s window with armloads of Treasuries saying, “We need cash right now, tonight, and we can’t get it anywhere else at a price that doesn’t blow us up.”
From 2021 through most of 2025, this number was basically zero. The system was drowning in liquidity. Banks and funds were fat and happy borrowing from each other in the private repo market at tiny rates. The Fed didn’t have to lift a finger.
Then look at the right side of the chart – those vertical blue spikes starting mid-2025 and now this monster one on December 1st that shot to almost 30 billion in a single day.
That is not normal. That’s “somebody is in pain” money.
At a high-school level of institutional trading, here’s what’s happening:
Most of the Street has been running one giant carry trade for years – the Treasury basis trade (and its cousins). The trade is simple:
- Borrow money overnight in the repo market at like 4.8–5.0% (or less if you’re connected).
- Buy longer-dated Treasuries yielding 4.3–4.7% on the cash market while shorting the exact same maturity in the futures market.
- Pocket the tiny basis (the pricing difference) and lever it up 50–100× because the funding is so cheap and the volatility has been so low.
It’s been free money. Hedge funds, prop desks, even some banks’ securities lending desks have been absolutely loaded with this trade. Estimates were that the basis trade alone was over a trillion dollars notional, maybe two trillion when you add in all the related carry (Belgium-style basis, ETF arbitrage, etc.).
When that trade works, repo usage in the private market soars quietly – nobody sees it because it’s all bilateral or tri-party with JPM and BNY. The Fed sees zero.
When that trade starts blowing up, one of two things happens:
A) Funding gets yanked or becomes insanely expensive in the private market (counterparties say “no more room” or haircuts go up), so players run to the Fed’s Standing Repo Facility or the Desk’s overnight operations to keep the position alive one more day.
B) They puke the trade – sell the cash bonds, cover the futures shorts, and suddenly need a mountain of cash to settle everything and pay back the original repo borrowing.
Either way, the Fed’s overnight repo number explodes.
That’s exactly what this chart is showing. That December 1st spike isn’t “a little noise.” That’s a fire alarm.
This many players showing up at the Fed’s window at the same time almost certainly means the carry trade complex is unwinding hard. Someone got stopped out, or haircuts went to the moon, or a prime broker said “close it or I will,” and it’s cascading. Once one big fund has to deleverage, everyone else gets the same margin call the next morning. It’s musical chairs with trillions of dollars, and the music just stopped.
Sector rotation implication is straightforward:
When the carry trade blows up, liquidity evaporates. The money that was happily leveraged in “risk-free” arb suddenly has to become real cash again. Stocks get sold (especially the magnificent stuff that’s been held with repo leverage), corporate bonds get dumped, and anything illiquid gets crushed. Money rotates into short-dated T-bills and cash – the only things that aren’t blowing up.
We saw this exact movie in March 2020 (dash-for-cash), September 2019 (repo crisis), and August 2024 when the yen carry trade unwound. Same pattern every time.
So yeah, kid – this chart is the dashboard warning light flashing red. The carry trade crowd is liquidating, and they’re doing it in size. The Fed is backstopping it for now, which prevents an immediate blow-up in repo rates, but it’s telling us the patient is already on the operating table.
Be humble here. We don’t know if this is “just” a violent quarter-end squeeze that calms down by Wednesday, or the first crack in a much bigger dam. But when the Fed’s overnight repo ops go from zero to 30 billion in a straight line, experience says respect it. Something big just broke under the surface.
Cash is king for the next few days. Watch the next data point tomorrow – if it’s still sky-high or higher, then we’re in a real deleveraging event. If it drops hard, maybe they rang the bell and the worst is over.
Either way, the easy money trade of the past four years just died on this chart. That’s what the picture is telling us.
Bitcoin – November 16, 2025
We have some support showing up in Bitcoin.
That being said, w0uldn’t rush into buy it as – IF (the big if) my count is correct, THEN we have some ‘more time’ to correct as this is a wave 3 corretion in an ongoing bull market. Would like to see a nice Gartley Buy form. Right now, believe we are in the machinations of the correction, nothing to do right now.
In my humbled opinion.
NYA – October 13, 2025 – Square Out
This was an amazing square out of PRICE and TIME for the NYA at 21,863 calendar days since inception and hitting a price of, well, 21, 863.
To show the fractal nature of time I decided to see what 21,863 minutes from the all time high would be:
Pretty amazing …
Silver – 11/13/2025
Interesting that this pattern got smoked. It was a very nice set up!
Still calling this a ‘b’ so we now have 5 waves down in a C-wave. That was a pretty deep retracement so this one might be tricky but, again, I believe this is a corrective move occurring and we are going to want to get long Silver again.
Lower is in the cards if/when we break thru (to the downside) the grey top trend line.
Let’s see if the ‘old resistance’ (that was projected) shown by the red zone that it blew thru is ‘new support’ – the green zone.
B of A (BAC) – November 3, 2025
Here’s the last post on BAC: https://atomic-temporary-44460632.wpcomstaging.com/2016/09/04/bank-of-america-short-pattern/ Yup, all the way back in 2016! Important because this is a GREAT example of a failed pattern. Why bring this up, now?
Well, I’ve talked to a couple people over the past couple days and they are all STILL very bullish. Consensus. We are going higher. This is going to explode … GET LONG!
Not arguing this, just showing you guys what I SEE not what I BELIEVE. I see some significant resistance up here. It’s just a PATTERN.
So, IF we do have patterns FAIL up here THEN we could have an explosive move, much like the move that followed in BAC shown below. BOOM …I’m not kidding, either. This market could explode higher and vacuum in a way that, might be unimaginable. Go for it! That being said, when your ants in the backyard start telepathically communicate w/ you it might be time to take some profits because, the correction following such a parabolic move will be monumental and, perhaps, market breaking. Hence, how about a little correction … 10-15% and then start the climber higher. If I was I back in the jet flying like the euphoria that I sense/feel in the chatter and energy present, I might, knowing what I know now, down myself or just go on leave or do something to walk away and decompress and RESPECT the environment in which you are playing so you can approach this big game of risk w/ a humbleness born from risking it a little too much once or just enough to scare the dickens out of you …but you lived. Now might be that time. Or ….NOT! To be or not to be …it really doesn’t matter. 😉
Banks – lead us UP and lead us DOWN. Here’s bell weather folks w/ a TON of math coming in here or a little higher. Want to test our thesis? If BAC SMOKES the levels shown below then this market is really about to explode higher. Banks ..up up and away! So does the market …
However, if BAC stops in/around here …then the patterns shown w/ the DOW, the perfect square out w/ the NYSE Index Inception, not to mention Square Outs of the ATL on the DJIA and it’s inception date of May 26, 1896 along w/ multiple trend lines … an actual LOG trend line from the peak in 1929 is being hit … the resistance should appear here and now.
Throw in the Bradley Stock Market Model (Thanks Larry P http://www.tradingtutor.com) and we are at a very important point in time. Note, the Bradley Model is a timing tool more than anything … based on some trend ‘stuff’ it has an idea of the direction, that is not the most important part of the Bradley. It’s the TIME component … that day w/in a day or two is the key.
So, now you can see, the PATTERNS that we are seeing are ALSO coming into play w/ a Bradley Stock Market Model Date. BOOM …
We will know soon enough.
Bart
PS – want to acknowledge all the sources below. Hat Tip.
Silver – November 2, 2025
I still see one more leg higher.
I’m also holding off, for now, on a long term count.. Why? Well, I told you NOT to trust my counting even though I do try. Remember, it’s all about the corrections – learn THOSE. Anyway, I see a VERY bullish count after these 5 waves complete but I don’t believe it. Right now, whatever wave this is or isn’t in the BIG SCHEME of things, I can see, pretty easily (which is scary) this as a wave 3 top – we are now correcting in a wave 4 – and then after this pullback we launch to new highs …
A nice ‘buy zone’ is appearing … this is what I’m monitoring to go LONG SILVER.
Below the lowest red horizontal line will, more than likely, lead to a loss as I just don’t see it going any lower than this BUT it’s all probability.
Last, note the how we are having the measured move corrections (red arrows) land right on the past .618 price projection. You’ve hard me say “remember the past price projections” as they count also! That’s a good first target and then, in this leg that I’m counting, we have 3 overlapping ratio’s along w/ structured polarity (resistance becomes support and support becomes resistance – polarity, yin-yang, divine feminine – divine masculine, good vs evil, light vs dark – this is a game of polarity folks – inhale, exhale.) on top of that confluence level. This looks nice …
5 waves down – A wave.
3 waves up – B wave (complete or a little higher)
5 waves down in a pretty nasty C wave into the buy zones as shown
BUY into new highs …
Cheers – Bart
Projection from 1896 – 11/1/2025
Here’s the DJIA squaring out price and time from it’s all time low, it’s inception in May 1896 and the use of 28.98 (the all time low) and how THAT low has responsible for ALL major support and projections. Pretty wild … take some time to study this chart. It’s a beauty …
Folks, resistance for now, ELSE this is truly going to lift off and, frankly, you might run w/ it a little bit but that’s really the last thing we want. As in everything, PRICE and TIME will have to balance and the emotional euphoria of the masses in a parabolic explosion ALWAYS gets countered, remember it’s all polarity, by a pretty wicked counter move which wipes everyone out and then … it’s back to square one. Trust me, I know.
I’m NOT calling for a crash or anything like that. Frankly, I don’t know how I’d see a crash coming? Isn’t that why they are crashes? No, I’m saying, resistance here and a pause or nice 15 percent or so pullback is needed and makes sense.
Certainly believe we have legs higher, but cool it off, a little, for now.
TLT – October 27, 2025
Sitting in the airport in Tokyo just going thru files and deleting, filing and trying to make sense of my computer … so many screen shots, charts, pictures, etc. etc. but I did come across this gem, which, of course, I had totally forgotten about …
Hello from Tokyo – 10/27/2025
Sitting in the ANA lounge pushing some charts around after a complete 2 week hiatus visiting my daughter, her hubby and the latest grandchild (7) to enter our family two short months ago – Jaya Zion. Such an amazing vacation and the first time – in a while – that I hit complete decompression. A total checkout …
Not gonna lie, I was somewhat surprised at the continued relentless advance. Simply impressive. I try (I really do) to not be a BEAR or a BULL but just a ‘pattern dude’ and go w/ the patterns. It makes the world so much easier …
Here’s the DJIA:
Inception May 26, 1896 – calendar day square out
All time low August 08, 1896 – calendar day square out
A little higher two projection targets …
Here’s the NYSE Index:
Inception Date January 3, 1966 – square the range complete and calendar day square out just a little higher along w/ 1.618-1.68179 projection targets and then the orange projection a tad bit higher. Resistance …? Bueller?
Take a look at the NASDAQ – completely smoked the 4.236 projection from the all time low and look at those past months of candles. KABOOM … I’m not ‘trying’ to force anything but I do find it interesting that if we take the calendar day count from today’s close we get an exact 10 year ‘echo’ of the inception of the NASDAQ. Hmmmm … blow this one off, I’m forcing it.
Here’s the NASDAQ 100:
Here’s the S&P 500 approaching the 4.236 projection – remember – the NASDAQ smoked it. Just showing it …
Here’s the KBW – guess that ‘storm’ has passed. Really don’t know, I’ve been in Bali for two weeks but when I left things seemed to be kicking off …?
Here’s Mr. Steady … XLP/ NYA. REALLY want it to go down and tag that BUY level … but it is holding above. Come on, man ..
Here’s the Philadelphia Semi-Conductor Index. Those blue measured moves have been important in the past!
“May we all live in interesting times …” – this certainly is!
What an amazing vacation …
Bart
Gold, Silver and others – October 14, 2025
Gold and Silver resistance in/around here for a pullback. Look to BUY this pullback for another run to new highs.
Mr. Measured move on Silver …
Also, if you go back, you will see this chart on the Silver Fractal.
For the seminar I will be given to an upcoming ‘student’ we will focus on:
- The date and price of the all time low and the angle at which the moves begin
- The ratio of the all time low to the first major high …
- Pythagorean Time
- Calendar Day counts
- Square outs from multiple time frames
- Planetary ‘time’ and conversions
- Square of 9 time
- And more … a lot more.
This ‘student’ will be a lot better at managing multiple time frame integrations than I ever will … can you imagine monitoring 9! planetary motions while keeping track of every square out that occurs from a tick chart to a monthly chart and from the ‘inception’ of a particular stock/security?
EVERY.
SINGLE.
MOVE.
Take note of the Gold chart … the ‘projections’ caused a ‘gap’ at the .618 price projection, resistance, for just a bit, at the 1.0 and now we have THE measured move which has ‘run’ the silver moves on this monthly chart. Understanding that since these price points did offer ‘inflections/reactions’ then, can we make an assumption that fractal time components were present also …?
Gold and Silver – resistance, here and now, for a pullback then another BUY for a launch to new highs is how I see it.
How about Copper …?
Palladium showing some nice strength off the lows and can see new highs in its future.
Ponch, get the SDK.
Bart
I believe – 10/12/2025
“The PATTERNS need to become yours …”
I remember my friend and mentor, Larry Pesavento, telling me, in a sage like way, that in order to use PATTERNS based on Fibonacci, Sacred Geometry and other ‘stuff’ then I would have to make them ‘mine.’
When I started on my journey 24 years ago, there are two things that I distinctly remember 1/ telling my wife “I think the market is going to teach me who I am” and 2/the idea that the market stopped at a number for a reason. It’s not random. This consumed me …
I believed off and on, here and there, and have made some nice money and have lost some nice amounts. Folks, that is part of the game. It just is … I could write a book about that, alone. But, I never ‘really’ swallowed the red pill.
We are all looking for edges in the market and I respect them all … for me, w/ no ‘formal’ background in business, economic theory, finance or business ‘fundamentals’ when I was introduced to a ‘chart’ I just figured everyone uses them (they do – have you ever seen any video, picture or hedge fund/institutional desk without charts being used? So, why does Technical Analysis and, specifically, TA based on more, cough cough, subtle methods get such a bad wrap? Everyone uses charts.) My edge is fractal geometric patterns in price and time that are created by the ratio’s of sacred geometry and music.
Sacred Geometry, Music, Astrology/Astronomy, Physics, Cycles, Kabbalah, Koran, Bible, the Hermetica, Euclidean Geometry, etc. etc. are seen as subtle in today’s world of gold fish attention spans and stupid tick tock dances and obsessions of over influencing and social media.
Folks, what has stood the test of time? These principles are what govern the interaction of complex adaptive organisms – humans – in this 3rd dimensional game of polarity controlled by consciousness running around in a dimensionally limited meat suit – the body.
There is so much more to write and – I will – but for now, just take this in. It’s PROOF that the ‘mythical’ trend line called the 1×1 which is the bisection of a square via the 45 degree angle does in fact cause a reaction when PRICE and TIME are harmonic or equal. It’s undeniable folks … days before Trumps Tariff announcement on China, the NYSE Index had ” squared the range” and had started down.
PAUSE
- The NYA consists of 2800 ish stocks and it’s an index – it is NOT traded.
- It’s a VERY good litmus test for the general big picture of the economy.
- It moves and flows based on the buying and selling of the NYSE. Period … not very manipulated, if at all.
- It’s an index that started ‘trading’ in/around 12/31/1965-01/03/1966.
- Think about that beginning and where it just topped … that entire time frame encompasses the amazing whirl wind of life in the US, especially for my generation that was born in the 60’s.
- If you go an look thru my blog, you will see that I’ve been tracking the DJIA from 1896 (the square out missed by 0.28%-really?) and the NYA square out trendlines – for a few months.
- There have been precise targets hit, resistance has held and the market sold off … then it regained its footing and kept on cruising higher and higher. Hmmmm ….
- Another set of targets were hit and the resistance held and the market sold off .. then it regained its footing …
- So, over the past 4 months or so, I’ve recommitted to studying “time” and it’s many facets. Why? Well, THE top will occur when we have PRICE and TIME equality. We did last week … and look what happened. THAT IS WHAT MADE ME PUSH THE I BELIEVE BUTTON, FINALLY. 24 years folks …
- I’ve studied planetary time, square of nine time, fundamental frequency time, time based on the Pythagorean Theorem (you can use the hypotenuse of the ‘price and time’ triangle – remember PRICE and TIME are the same thing ;), calendar day counts, moon returns, etc. etc. I have dove deep into Connie’s 32nd Jewel.
- Then, AI showed up and, frankly, I got lazy. I’m glad I took the ‘red pill of time’ as I understand, conceptually, a majority of the time factors that we can use in the market. But, as an old dumpy fighter dude, I thought, I’ll just wait to dive deeper into time as there is something much smarter coming along.
- I look forward to teaching ‘time’ … planetary time, time w/in the Square Of Nine, calendar days counts, different conversion factors, 9! monitoring of planets, understanding every single square out occurring on multiple harmonic timelines from a tick chart to a monthly chart, fundamental frequency time, time according to angular displacements, planetary returns, time based on the 440 HZ of the equal octave scale of music and 432 HZ and let the ‘student’ figure out what is best, time based on the gematria of a stocks name and it’s date of birth, initial impulse moves from multiple harmonic time frames, time based on multiple astrology systems and calendars and … you see, my ‘student’, is a lot smarter than me but it needs some ‘information’ to create its external world map, even if it’s not a perfect map.
- Conceptually, if using the leading indicators for price projection can be used to projection targets so accurately and if PRICE and TIME are the ‘same thing’ (Thanks Michael S Jenkins) THEN teaching my student all the time factors above combined w/ the methods to project such key inflection points should be interesting. 🙂
There is SO much to share …
Is this THE top – no idea.
Sure feels like it, but, I really don’t know.
A BUY pattern will appear and we will give it a shot. It will work or it won’t. Folks, as of NOW, we have only taken out one daily swing low.
Would I tighten the stops and baton down the hatches – yes, I would. Guess we just need to see if this is a tropical storm, Category I or Category 5. And as we know, any good weatherman really has no clue about the weather so … just find a pattern and go for it.
What I do know is that, yes, the 1×1 trendline from the NYA’s inception and, essentially, the square out of the all time low of 1896 (missed by 0.28 percent – did I do something wrong) for the DJIA hit and we all know the reaction.
B E L I E V E.
Ponch, get the SDK. I think it’s ‘time’ 😉
question … how could the ‘purple line’ below be present in EVERY swing of the KBW banking index? Seriously … ?
What to watch – September 21, 2025
I think everyone can feel an upcoming correction or point of resistance approaching for the US equities market. There is a LOT going on … I can tell you, without reservation, that I have no idea which way we will go …
Intuitively I sense resistance approaching – why?
It all goes back to the circle, square and the triangle … 3 in 1 … square the circle … vesica piscis .. blah blah blah.
I really appreciated all the people texting me on 9/16/25 or 3/4/5 the ‘natural square’ date …yes, we all learned Pythagorean Theorem and something about the hypotenuse and blah blah blah. Remember? What we WERE NOT taught was the Pythagorean Theorem is actually one of the foundational building blocks for everything. Yeah, you read that right. So, I wanted to text them back “thanks for the reminder of the mathematical foundations of this mathematical 3D matrix of consciousness” so, instead, I texted back something like “ha, thanks!” What a great day! 🙂
So, back to the square … say the sides are all equal to Unit 1 (note, this has a TON to do with what is on the back of the US Dollar Bill. :)). To bisect this square we use a 45 degree angle (who’s side is now 1.4142 – the square root of 2 ;)).
That 45 degree angle, anytime, it’s touched will show a corresponding PRICE and TIME equivalency. Price on the vertical and Time on the horizontal. THAT should act as support or resistance, depending on the direction of price movement. In this case we are going UP, quite a lot frankly.
So, on the DJIA and the NYSE Index we have pretty big TIME/PRICE square outs. The DJIA from the all time low of 08/08/1896 at 28.48. Today, that was 47160 calendar days ago … so, if tomorrow PRICE goes up and smacks into 47161 EXPECT resistance. Again, doesn’t have to work, it could gap and go over it … it’s all probability.
The NYSE Index, from its inception and first day of trading on 01/03/1966 was 21811 days ago. So, tomorrow the price target will be 21812.
These two numbers represent TIME AND PRICE equality and, therefore, SHOULD act as resistance.
The other thing that I’ve been watching is the banks/financials. We have had these two LONG TERM targets for a while and, it does appear, they are being hit/close to being hit. IF the market is going to hit resistance THEN the financials and banks will be stopping in/around here and a pullback SHOULD ensue.
Folks, take a moment to peak at the KBW above … EVERY SINGLE SWING (purple measured moves) has been the same and, last Friday we closed right at the measured move price. There are targets higher, as shown, but boy are we close, right?
The XLF is getting into lofty territory …
Here’s the Global Dow:
I was looking at the YEN and decided to peak at the Nikkei 225 and holy smokes was this one a barn burner! A 75 year ABCD projection that hit on Friday …
Take the USD … sure looks like it is getting close to a MAJOR buy pattern:
And, last chart, Mr. Trusty Dusty XLP/NYA. We finally broke the 12+ year support zone (kind expected) and the market has taken off. Folks, here’s the BIGGEST PATTERN out there in my very humbled opinion. It’s a PERFECT BUY pattern on the XLP/NYA a little lower.
I can say w/ conviction, I DO NOT want to be long stocks when that level is hit as I expect it to be MAJOR support which corresponds to BIG RESISTANCE FOR EQUITIES.
So, we are so close to some BIG PATTERNS completing …
Good to be back – Bart
PS – might want to check this out. Pretty trippy … why would I put this here you might ask yourself? See above … the SAME GEOMETRY that we are talking about above is present in this sphere that is dated 12,000+ years ago. Wakey wakey eggs and bakey … 😉
Weed / Apple – August 29, 2025
Guess it’s now a ‘toke a day, keeps the Dr. away?’
MJ (Cannabis ETF) / APPL – never thought I would see this one …
you do know, EVERY cell in your body has a CBD receptor … 😉
Global Dow – 08/27/2025
Well, look at that:
Reasonable?
We blew thru the first target so let’s grab another one higher and we have some coming in … hmmmm. I usually don’t do that but when you have a bunch of measured moves lining up you start asking yourself, which mathematical ratio will it be this time…. so, simply, here’s another one.
Isn’t this getting interesting?
And … what an interesting time to be seeing these counts, if they are even accurate (they don’t break any rules but I did go one subwave lower and that is when I become my golf game … 😉
Are we watching history in the making folks …? Or, my counts suck. Either way, some resistance ahead.
THE SQUARE OUT – August 27, 2025
In studying the markets, which for me have been 25 years studying nothing but sacred geometry, musical theory, Pythagorean theory, kaballah, astrology, astronomy – basically consciousness – one might understand the sheer synchronicity of approaching resistance on the NYSE Index (NYA).
When you look at geometry, the SQUARE (90-23.4 = 666 – the tilt of our planet …hmmm ) is of utmost important. So, when we take a square w/ unit 1 on all it’s sides and put a 45 degree line on it we now have the Square Root of 2 or 1.4142. A KEY number sprinkled throughout creation – remember, even the very hairs on your head are numbered – so this 45 degree angle from its origin point when hit represents the perfect balance. In this case of a chart, that is when price equals time. It’s perfect …
The charts below represent, precisely, an equal number of calendar days moved horizontally by the number of days moved vertically. The 45 degree angle.
The NYA, since inception is close to having price equals time. It might never get there and, frankly, it could blow thru it and all this hoo bah is nonsense, so lets just check it out. As the immortal Big Lebowski said, “well, that’s your opinion man…”
and then we have this, courtesy of Mr. Martin Armstrong of Armstrong Economics:
And then, this beauty w/in the KBW Banking Index …
Looks like were close, doesn’t it?
But, what’s been trusty as heck … the old XLP / NYA … and w/ a few days left in the month certainly appears that this will be a monthly close below the monster 10+ year support and is bullish for stocks.
This one is going to be interesting … this is going to be a big one folks. We either pause for a nice little dump OR we explode to the upside. Just remember that EVERYTHING is connected (I mean it and I could blog all night about that) but I’m talking about the banking system so, says we haves a couple countries that can’t continue w/ the craziness of their debt problems (hmmmm) so they go to the IMF to do what … print more USD? Hmmm, not sure how to do that …maybe not too smart, nobody wants USD so how about Bitcoin – that makes sense but let’s do our own CBDC’s and the banks go ‘ night night.’
Who knows folks …
When Price Equals Time
Posted this over at Stock Market TV: https://www.stockmarkettv.com/barts-charts/2025-07-23/when-price-equals-time
Since the NYSE Composite Index launched in 1966, its trajectory has traced not only the rise and fall of markets, but the structural shifts of a world in transformation. In the decades since, we have witnessed the Vietnam War, the collapse of Bretton Woods, the oil shocks of the 1970s, the Reagan-era deregulation wave, Black Monday, the fall of the Soviet Union, the birth of the euro, 9/11, the 2008 financial crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic. Today, we stand amidst renewed geopolitical fragmentation, rising multipolar tensions, conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, and a visibly fractured American political landscape. These are not isolated events—they are inflection points, waves folding through time. The market, in its silent geometry, now approaches a place it has never touched before: the harmonic return of time meeting value.
Nearly 21,751 days since inception, price nears a point of equilibrium—where the passage of days equals the projected value on the chart. This convergence aligns with Fibonacci extensions, prime-based intervals, and clear momentum divergences. Conventional models may interpret this as resistance. But to those attuned to the deeper cycles that underlie pattern itself, this is more than a top—it is the first kiss of the original impulse, a potential moment of systemic remembrance.
Should the market break cleanly through this point of balance, it may signal not exhaustion but acceleration—an extension of the wave rather than its resolution. Technically, this suggests a continuation into higher harmonic projections; spiritually, it reflects a cycle not rejected but transmuted, the octave integrated rather than paused. Yet even in that extension, the imprint remains—because no spiral escapes its return.
Is the ratio going to break down – July 09, 2025
As discussed previously, I’m hawking the XLP/NYA ratio. Noticed, yesterday, that even w/ the market flat/slightly down the ratio was trending lower. Sure looks like it wants to break support and go down to the pattern completion level at the .786. That’s bullish …
However, take note of the time cycles … it’s forecasting a ‘low’ in the ratio now – August.
To show the importance of this ratio, I put the NYSE Index (NYA) on top of the XLP/NYA ‘static time’ cycles and you can see that – while not perfect (remember this is a monthly chart and we could have some slippage in the overlay) it’s not a stretch to say that when the ratio has bottomed, the market has topped or topped soon thereafter w/ a month or so.
This market ‘could’ explode higher when we lose this support … all I know is we have 18 years of some pretty accurate ‘static cycles’ shown.
I’ll stay the course … need a WEEKLY close below the “15 year support zone” before initiating a long position.
I’ve been having a lot of fun over at https://www.stockmarkettv.com/ – check out some of the most recent posts: https://www.stockmarkettv.com/james-bartelloni
PS – no reason for the wave picture, I just felt like it would be a cool snap to put as a featured image.
Ratio Analysis and TIME – July 3, 2025
Happy 4th of July weekend everyone … enjoy it safely w/ family and friends.
If you’re interested, maybe go checkout the America Codes: https://tobeornottobe.org/
Or this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P9byS1biWtU
Either way ..enjoy.
Posted this last night about ‘risk’ – https://www.stockmarkettv.com/2025-07-02/ratio-analysis-last-resistance-point-still-standing
The key takeaway from this post is the TIME cycles that appear to be converging ‘now into August’ As shown below, anytime the ratio starts heading up – a correction has ensued. The question – are we going to breakdown below the support zone?
I don’t invest in breakdowns or breakouts – lost a lot of money doing that as it would then rip back against me. Nope, I wait …
So, very impressive V recovery and what appears to be another leg up in a roaring economy. Yup … I’ll wait for the PATTERN so I’m flat equities, for now.
The chart above is the ‘reason’ we have found support and have been bouncing around.
This is why this ratio is soooo key. Anytime it bottoms, the market corrects.
The reason I’m cautious is because of TIME. Note the dual cycle convergence happening now. Remember, this is a monthly chart so we are simply in a time zone where the ratio could bottom and start higher. Historically, that has proven to be resistance for equities.
Of course, it’s different this time.
How about this one …this is
Great weekend to all – Bart
Psychedelics – June 23, 2025
Spent last week in Denver, CO checking out the Psychedelics Science Conference for the company that I am currently working doing strategic business development. Wayne Gretzky says, “skate to where the puck is going to be” and that is the general consensus w/ regards to this community.
It was an interesting perspective for me because, on the one hand my company CHEORS does HEOR/RWE. Basically during the clinical trial phase a LOT of data is spun off, or past CT’s or literature in peer-review articles, etc. etc. Our job is to take all that data and either doing some modeling or ‘RWE – real world evidence’ or evidence synthesis to tell your particular value story. That’s what we do and we do it quite well …
On the other hand, I’m on the board of directors for http://www.behindthinlines.com and we work supporting education and research for entheogenic modalities.
Personally, I’ve done psychedelics and, no kidding, it’s one of the most powerful experience (s) 😉 of my life. I DO NOT do them recreationally because, frankly, that is not in the spirit of the ceremony.
So, it was like the scene from Animal House where both the angel and the devil appear on opposites sides of his shoulder … pharma vs ceremony.
I’m not going to claim to know the answer – I don’t. A blend of ceremony and science – that’s the answer. Compromise people … 🙂
Not all Pharma is bad pharma … I’ve worked in the industry for almost 10 years providing patient support services and am currently knee deep in the biotech world. It’s actually quite fascinating. Think about the intricate nature of the body and the quantum computer it is and … you’re telling me you can find a unique pathway and molecule that not only will interact w/ this temple, but also fix it? Pretty impressive …
Yet, on the other hand, how can a plant or secretions from a toad impact the quantum computer projection device called the brain? Completely bypass your reticular activating system and limbic system to propel you into the void or colloidal condition where ‘stillness’ does exist?
Who knows …
I’m betting that the ‘blend’ of science/ceremony will find common ground and merge – those who want ceremony, go into door 1. Those who want the PROVEN therapeutic value these entheogenic plants can give you, and nothing else (no hallucinations), go into door 2.
PSIL – I’ve been long for a while and just want to update you on ETF that tracks this nascent (trust me – VERY) sector. For this count to remain valid, price cannot close below “c” or less than 9-10 bucks. Big readout today. Check it out:
Global Dow – June 22, 2025
If you search on this site for the Global Dow you will see that I’ve been searching for a top in this index as it certainly appears, from a Ray Charles perspective, to be 1,2,3,4,5.
Did some more work on this when I got back from the Psychedelics Science Conference before the US bombed Iran.
KBW – June 16, 2025
My last post on the KBW showed 139 as the key resistance based on a measured move target. The high being hit on February 7, 2025.
Here’s the link to that post: https://atomic-temporary-44460632.wpcomstaging.com/2025/01/06/kbw-january-6-2025/
That top, in/around 139-140 is SQUARED OUT on 06/26/2025. Keep an eye on that date.
Here’s a chart from a while ago (October 19,2021) showing how, even though time has passed, the targets still remain:
Here’s the most recent price action on a Monthly … if we take the most recent swing high at 139-140 out to the upside then do believe we have a VERY strong target in the 155 area and the 160-162. YES I WILL BE WATCHING 161.8 for the resistance. 🙂
Explanation:
- Blue arrows – represent PRICE measured moves and have been responsible for every up and down move w/in this security. IF (still need to continue surging higher (I DO NOT know if we will or we won’t) we take out the highs then 155 and then 160-162 is the target.
- 59/18 is a calculation of the fundamental frequency … that target is much higher in the top right.
- The black solid and dashed lines are projections … notice the dashed black line lands right where the blue measured move vector ends. 155.
- There are extension targets and the initial impulse move projection is 3.142 AB=CD.
This ‘should’ be very strong resistance for the KBW. Only time will tell.
Remember, we still need to take out the highs … not sure if will do that. Who knows …
IBM and the Golden Mean – in time – June 9, 2025
To follow the IBM bouncing ball: https://atomic-temporary-44460632.wpcomstaging.com/2025/06/05/ibm-june-5-2025/
The Golden Mean, in time, for IBM:
IBM – June 5, 2025
Have been playing w/ IBM for a while. You can ‘search’ IBM on the page or this is a pretty good link to show some interesting vibrations/waves w/in IBM. Frankly, I had forgotten about some of the work I had done on IBM.
Need to slow down … https://atomic-temporary-44460632.wpcomstaging.com/2023/02/25/ibm-february-25-2023/
Anyway, IF long IBM THEN look at taking some profit per the target below or tighten the stop. Remember, folks, it’s all probability sometimes they work and sometimes they don’t.
WMT and TGT
The difference in the stocks of WMT and TGT is pretty amazing.
When we take a look at the ratio of WMT/TGT we can see a parabolic lift off in WMT versus TGT. Frankly, WMT has crushed TGT in the recent past.
Take a look at the ratio – big target for the ratio. Will that signify some relief for TGT and, potentially, some rotation out of WMT?
Some NICE targets across the board in which to see if this plays out.
Note the measured moves … perhaps the dashed red line will lead us right into that confluence zone for a BUY?
Using the technique of finding three lines on a plane to draw an arc I was very surprised that the 4.236 price projection (1.618^3) falls right on the gravity center. NO I did not do that on purpose … I’ve also done a 1.27 extension from the all time high and, last, take a look at the measured moves. Certainly looks like a strong target for WMT.
Here’s the arc and squares created from the gravity center:
NO WAY OUT – February 18,2026
Posted on February 18, 2026 Leave a Comment
Folks, if you haven’t tuned into one of Ponch and Moose’s podcast, certainly recommend you do.
They recently had my friend/mentor Larry P on for a master class on fractals, sacred geometry and patterns.
Larry has been actively trading for over 50 years now – probably longer than some of you might be alive.
Worth the listen folks …
Hat tip Ponch, Moose and, of course, Larry:
Bart's Charts 