Silver redux

almost 4 years ago I blogged about the Silver Fractal that was present in the LONG TERM (going back to 1972) Silver futures (continuous contract) chart. here’s the link to the blog: https://bartscharts.com/2014/11/06/the-silver-fractal-you-want-to-study-this-chart/

so where are we now. Pay attention to the bottom formed in the 1990-2000 – it took a decade to consolidate. have not idea if that will occur again but am looking for silver to hold say 12-14 and once Gold finishes the last leg (e) of the a-b-c-d-e triangle then we might get a very nice run in Silver.

I’ve dashed the black box that is ‘looks’ and ‘feels’ like the same fractal that is present right now …note it does squeak out a new low before it rocks and rolls higher. not sure we have anything to do now, but perhaps sometime in June / July the puppy will start to run w/ the bulls.

Walmart WMT

have blogged about WMT here: https://bartscharts.com/2016/01/30/wmt-into-the-high-60s-2/

a ‘bearish’ butterfly pattern is forming along w/ a projection from the all time low. Expect 110-120 to be formidable resistance in coming days weeks.

Visa

been on quite the tear. expect some near term resistance for now …found it interesting that the all time low + 161.8 exactly equals the high, for now.

Value Line Geometric – updated 06/11/2019

last time I blogged about the Value Line was here: https://bartscharts.com/2018/03/04/value-line-geometric-index-another-10-to-go-updated-03-04-2018-2/ note the target zone of late. it STILL hasn’t been tagged so those targets are still out there … I’d put this one on your radar as we got REALLY close to tagging the lower end of the target zone and sold off … any rally above the old all time highs should be met w/ caution due to the presence of the long term targets overhead …

this is a great index to watch for the overall health of the market … In basic terms, the Value Line Geometric Index eliminates an illusion created by cap-weighted index components. 

here’s some harmonics using the all time low of 47 and the square of 9

this last leg begins at 152 so I’m going to put that in the center …and I did NOT do this before and then show it .. I’m doing this real time. Just looking to see IF the highs and lows correspond to 45 degree angles on the square of 9 from a PRICE PERSPECTIVE. Since we (at least me) believe that PRICE equals time there is a time component to this puzzle that can also use the square of 9. That’s too much for this blog for now .. but, do yourself a favor and ‘pull’ the middle number UP and then you’ll see a pyramid (yes I’m making reference to the GREAT PYRAMID in a blog about the Value Line) I wonder if the ancient Egyptians tracked planets and seasons and TIME via these same 45 degree increments? Perhaps? Perhaps not …there’s some other neat stuff to do w/ the square of nine based on ‘other’ numbers that are ‘interesting’ or ‘important’ for certain dates or angles. Study ‘cycles’ and you’ll see.

either way, I see some major resistance HERE or a little higher in the Value Line.

Just a pattern dude so don’t try to confuse me w/ all the smart fundamental stuff. It makes my head explode.

GN – Bart

update for the JPM geometry

blogged about JPM a while ago: https://bartscharts.com/2018/08/30/jpm-and-tops-of-circles/ saw a bunch of geometry coming in around 120 and, thus far the geometry has held for almost 1.5 years .. would stay away until this level is exceed on a monthly close above the 120 level … geometry is holding it …

XLP/NYA ratio analysis – an update

06/09/2019 – back to our old favorite. you know I’ve been watching this one for a while. I was hawking a low in the ratio in mid-2018 but missed it from a time perspective … then, in retrospect, easily saw the measured move and the .786 retrace. I’m human, I missed it. should have been more diligent – especially w/ the time cycles coming in from the 2007 low. the TIME had worked as support before so why not now …? Oh well.

now, we can pretty nicely see 5 waves up and we are in the 5th wave up .. could be a 1 or an A. only TIME will tell. I feel reasonably certain that after a pullback on the ratio (less volatility, higher stocks) there will be another 5 wave move higher if this analysis is correct.

I’ve also included an overlay of the NYSE Index and the XLP/NYA ratio to show the thesis that – by using patterns to ratio analysis we can find potential inflection points. in this case – staples (XLP) represent a risk off mindset (volatility/selling) when they outperform the overall market (the ratio goes up). when the overall market (NYSE Index) outperforms (the ratio goes down) then risk is on and the market volatility should go down and prices go up. Seems to work …

so, 5 waves up from the bottom, 3 wave pullback and 5 waves up … that’s what were looking for, right now. TIME will tell.

DB Oblivion …

you can follow the saga of DB here: https://bartscharts.com//?s=db

what a mess … reminds me of the title to this movie …

Image result for oblivion movie

UAA for a friend

GLD UPDATE

need to respect the move UP in Gold last week … was ‘hoping’ (a strategy) that we would see another leg down into the circled area to complete the multi-year triangle and then a very strong move up …

watch over the coming days and especially this week.

Bart

GPRO from the top to the bottom

Well, the GPRO saga has been quite the ride. I’ve been posting w/ Andy and the gang @seeitmarket since the high at 98. The long long ride down has completed the final lowest target so from here .. perhaps we’ll see it run higher.

here are the posts over @seeitmarket: https://www.seeitmarket.com/?s=GPRO

or you can just search my site because I tried to link the @seeitmarket to @bartscharts after it was published.

let me know if you have any questions.

Bart

Global Dow – inflection point update

05/29/2019 UPDATE

note, from our last post in April we correctly ID’d the ‘roughly’ 17-18% move (corrective) up in the GLOBAL DOW and I have annotated “same pattern” to simply show this chart acting like the 2007-2009 period, thus far. the key here is the long term LOG trend line that is coming up from the 2002 lows. would expect, based on the monthly candle forming right now, that it should get tested in the coming weeks. breaking that trend line (MONTHLY close below) would be an ‘other’

as for the US DOW, that’s setting up a totally different and, potentially, bullish pattern so we’ll have to put it all together over the coming weeks.

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note the AB=CD pattern that completed on the Global Dow.

note the dashed red arrow rally … well, we are pretty much there in regards to price and time.

should be an interesting week …

Bart

Palladium Redux

would watch the target above, very closely, along w/ the NASDAQ weakness in the coming days/weeks.

March 20th, 2880 for SPX

March 20th is the Vernal Equinox – first day of Spring (yeah) and from a time perspective is – usually – very important. additionally, we have a new moon/super moon on that date .. my friend and mentor Michael Jenkins taught me that because Vernal Equinox is the start of many ‘time cycle’s we can use numerology to derive potential time and price targets. I know this sounds crazy but as you cans below – it works. 360*8 = 2880. So, on the SPY cash or futures contract in/around that price could be a nice turning point. Knowing this, let’s do some PRICE and TIME conversion. as you can see below when we take 03/20/2019 and SUBTRACT 2880 price we nail the 05/01/2011 high which became a nice 5 wave decline. now, does any of this have to happen – NOPE – not at all. It’s all probability … but, w/in +/- day of 03/20/2019 I’ll be looking for a signal reversal candle to let the market tell me what it wants to do ….either way, enjoy the spring!

Bart

Transports and F#

The last time I posted about the Transports they were finishing measured moves and the target w/ in around 9700-9800. The index blew thru that area after some consolidation and tapped out around 11, 500. We now have a very nice pattern taught to me by Larry Pesavento – the 1-3-5 and it appears that the index is starting back down. There are two interpretations that I’m showing – 1 is very bearish and the other is very bullish. Either way, in the near term, I expect a pullback and if we get a BUY pattern I’ll buy w/ a stop and if we get a SELL pattern I’ll sell w/ a stop. I’m a pattern dude do I’ll just wait and see …

Kind of cool that the price projection from the all time low from the 1930’s was 1.68179 (F#) and we stopped on the .68179 retracement. In the world I live in (you might not, so don’t worry about it or believe) what’s that usually telling me is the ‘index’ is respecting (OK vibrating) to that ratio and it’s inverse …

The bullish case is that we stopped at exactly the same price point as we did every other time since this powerful move began in the early 2000’s …

hope you have had a good weekend.

Bart

Gold

have been pretty silent about gold as it has gone up and down and up and down again and again … and, most recently, it’s started back down. folks, this is a complicated correction in Gold. And, mind you, its just that – a CORRECTION in a multi year down trend. here’s the thesis – we are the last wave of a contracting triangle which will then cause a very very strong move to the upside .. but, for now, I believe that will end a C wave and the a-b (triangle) – c correction will be over and another leg down in Gold will begin. now, mind you – this is going to all take months or a year or so to complete but it’s the best interpretation that I can think of, for now … so, near term, if your bullish (which I am near term and am already long) get ready to BUY gold once this ‘e’ leg of the a-b-c-d-e triangle is complete.

IWM

the last time I blogged by IWM was here: https://bartscharts.com/2018/05/17/iwm-caveat-emptor-and-check-out-where-price-hovered-today-in-my-p-s-below-cool/

we correctly ID a target zone of resistance and am now looking for another wave down sequence that will, if this count is correct, lead to a great BUY opportunity. I’ve outlined my count in the chart below …

TWILIO (TWLO) and the Vesica Pisces – update 03/17/2018

03/17/2018 – I was asked to do an update on $TWLO from a friend and noticed that it has continued to have amazing strength during the sell off a little while ago and during this rally. I also remember doing this intial $TWLO post and thinking, I should show readers/myself the length of the dashed purple price projection .. honestly, I was just too lazy.

Anyway, I went back today and redid the VP and wanted to show the scaling was completely different this time BUT the vectors still came out ‘pretty much’ around the same length …it’s fractal baby. that’s all I can say .. so, I pretty much wanted to show that scaling is ALWAYS an issue but if you do some of the work and the chart shows you it’s respecting’ish the work by support and resistance then go w/ it .. NEVER use the VP as a stand alone technique (I certainly don’t) but use it as affirmation that yes, the market does in fact vibrate and these vectors prove it. at least they do for me …

so, anyway, now you can see the purple vector and then I did some square of nine price and time work (just calendar days), did some patterns (3 drive to a top) and then, yes, (shoot me) I threw a little planet stuff in there looking for similarities in the IPO date and last Friday/Monday … find it interesting as we are approaching the Vernal Equinox, new moon/super moon we have a lot of ‘other’ stuff converging on Twilio ($TWLO)

as always, let me know if you have any questions. I would watch for a weekly SRC to potentially protect profits on this one .. mind you, it has, in the past, gapped up over these targets also. all probability.

Bart

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My dear friend Larry from www.tradingtutor.com.com sent this over so I just fooled around w/ the Bladder of the Fish. The 3 drives looks nice AND the time and price of our vectors sure seems to point at resistance ahead!

the XLP / NASDAQ ratio complete a BUY pattern …updated 05/19/2019

05/19/2019 as you can see below, the buy zone was defeated by just a bit but, ultimately, it proved to be good support and the ratio is going UP which shows a risk off mindset w/ regards to the institutions. keep an eye on this ratio as it’s very important and can give us a heads up w/ regard to the overall health of the market.

I put the MONTHLY chart in there to show the much bigger pattern that completed at the lows.

02/28/2019 update: well, the target area shown in the original post was shown and held, somewhat. as the bouncing around started to happen from January 22, 2019 till Feb 21, 2019 it certainly created a nice triangle from the classic EWT. a-b-c-d-e and a resumption of the downtrend. We have rallied a little bit after the breakdown from the triangle (they usually occur in 4th waves – a guideline NOT a rule) so we have either finished or have one more sequence lower to finish – what I believe to be a zig-zag like correction.

if this analysis is correct, then we will bottom NOW or a little lower and the ratio will start to rise.

what does that mean? it USUALLY means stocks will start to sell off.

we are at a key/crucial juncture ..charts below

to show you the ‘power’ of this ratio, I’ve updated a 4 hour intraday chart of the xlp/nazzie ratio (candles) and the nazzie INVERTED (blue line) to show the synchronicity and how well they shake and jive together. note: every inflection point is timed almost exactly. THAT IS WHY THIS RATIO IS SO KEY and HELPS WITH RISK CONTROL

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if you have been following me for a while you will know that I really trust PATTERNS and also ratio’s w/ the patterns.

in this case, we have a near PERFECT BUY pattern on our XLP/NASDAQ ratio. Which means, the Staples (a source of risk off for the institutions) ‘should’ start outperforming the NASDAQ from a relative strength basis which ‘should’ cause the NASDAQ to sell off .. IF and ONLY IF the PATTERN works. As you can see below, we have two levels to watch (the one we are at right now) and then one a little bit lower …

my guess (as I NEVER know which pattern will or won’t work) is that the next sell off will occur ‘here’ or the other target a little lower. if we blow thru them w/ power and they fail then it might be game on again .. but let’s not get too hopeful yet. let’s see what our patterns do on the ratio first …

Bart

BUY pattern on the ratio

note the NASDAQ is inverted (blue line) in this depiction

NYSE Index Targets

Well, the support level shown in my last post was defeated on Friday. We also closed ‘below’ old resistance so it looks like ‘polarity’ didn’t work here. All I’m trying to do is find the ‘bounce’ area as cycles suggest into end of January/early Feb.

So, here’s some targets on the NYSE Index that I’ll be targeting over the coming weeks ..

let me know if you have any questions.

Bart

PS – got out in the water today. The swells have been PUMPING of late in SoCal. Good clean living folks, good clean living.

Big Support on NYSE Index

‘hope’ – a strategy – it holds for now.

NASDAQ – huge trend line support being attacked

12/16/2018 – take note of the MONTHLY LOG scale on the NASDAQ Composite.  I’ve outlined 3 critical areas to monitor on the chart.  Also, you’ll see in the second chart that back last March we ID’d the 7600 ish area as the target zone.  The market went another, roughly 5% and then ran into another extension ratio. The square root of 3 or 1.732.  It did a 173.2 percent extension from 2000-2002.  My bust as this fit nicely into an AB=CD projection that was tracking right along w/ the QQQ.  And, I know most everyone was unable to hear back in March someone advising caution … no big deal.  Anyway, some pretty big support from our LOG trendlines are coming in … it certainly looks ‘heavy’ and as you can see from my previous blog about the XLP/NASDAQ it looks like it has some more room to go … the breaking of these LOG trend lines (on a weekly basis – wait for the end of the week) will signal some heavy selling pressure to come in …

WATCH THE RATIO’s

12/16/2018 – as shown before, the ratio of XLP (Staples) / NASDAQ and the PATTERN that completed gave us fair warning of this correction we find ourselves in .. is it the beginning of the ‘next’ bear market. I have no idea. Is it just the ‘buy the dip’ – I have no idea. I guess if you have 50 years you don’t care but if you have 2 weeks you might.  It’s all relative folks but we do want to find what the best entry/exit points are as we look to manage risk. that’s all I’m trying to do …

the big institutions have a risk on or a risk off mindset. we hear it all the time. ratio’s allow you to try and get a best guess of where they are … in this case the STAPLES / NASDAQ has helped – a ton.

so, where are we now? 

KEY: note the blue arrows. those are the extreme moves up in ‘risk off’ for the institution and then, as shown, the ratio stalls and then the band plays on … believe it or not, we haven’t reached that extreme yet so I simply expect the correction to continue until the ‘target zone 1’ is reached. If your a bull then this seems a logical place to stick your toe int he water else watch and wait for a MONTHLY SIGNAL REVERSAL CANDLE.  Else, we could go all the way up to Target Zone 2.   

Banks

12/16/2018 – the banks lead us up and they lead us down.  note the polarity shown in/around 84. Also, we have 4 ratios coming in around 79-80.  Then we have the 76 polarity level. my ‘expectation’ is that these levels hold for support on the banks which breathes some life into stocks. 

also, note the RSI.  Yes, we are oversold, but not to the very extreme levels yet so would expect 1/ another push into the dashed red line area and, perhaps, a bullish divergence.  Would be nice to have this happen in the areas shown.

Believe it’s too early to call any bottom or a the size of this ‘top’ for now so hold em’ if you got em.

Bart

(F) Ford set up – redux

05/18/2018

the zone we were looking at below was hit … any sustained pullback should be bought.  look for increased volume and rotation moving forward.

 

10/21/2018

F has hit the zone for the projections sighted a few weeks ago.  a weekly ‘doji’ has formed but no real bullish divergence.  perhaps continue to wait till 4.86 OR a weekly close above 10.  all that being said, this area is a BIG deal for Ford (F) ….

Bart

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3 AB=CD’s

.618 retracement

Extensions of 1.4142 and 1.1286 (musical note)

looks like $8 cold be big support …

Bart

Ford

JPM and tops of circles

if you do a search for JPM on this site you’ll see it’s pretty much ‘paused’ at every PATTERN out there but ultimately broke thru and kept going higher w/ strength. Good on em’!

we are again at a PATTERN completing. Top of a circle, 1.618 price projection from the all time low, 2.71828 (natural log (found all over the Great Pyramid OBTW)) extension and some Adams pitch fork trend line stuff ..

so in the world I live in that’s the reason we have stopped in/around the 118 level.

note, when working w/ geometry look at how the market reacted to your work .. the dashed purple circles show how the ‘arc’ was support and when it hit 3 o’clock on the circle it exploded .. this just gives you credence that the arc is being respected.

note on the Adams Pitch fork that the ‘median’ line was responsible for resistance and support along the way up into these levels.

so what’s this all mean?  lot’s of math in/around 118 so resistance is expected. is it a top or the top – I have no idea but I’d be watching carefully …

Bart

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One of the most important charts out there … R A T I O P O L A R I T Y

11/20/2018 – so, this ratio is running the show right now.  if you read the below NONE of this should be a surprise as the PATTERNS worked and the XLP/QQQ buy pattern has taken off, causing a risk off mindset and the NAZZIE to get blasted.  That being said, all is not lost. While I do think we have some more carnage to come, ultimately the ratio is going to smack right into a very strong trend line and the technical analysis concept of POLARITY should cause support or THE bottom for a GREAT BUY.  The chart below should give you and idea of why the area labeled ‘resistance’ should offer strong support for the institutions and offer a great BUY of the Q’s and technology.

let me know if you have any questions.

B


 

10/21/2018

note the ratio .. we have a pretty nice bullish engulfing pattern on the ratio which is precursor to potentially further weakness.  If looking to BUY the Q’s would definitely wait for a nice sell pattern or overhead resistance to be hit before stepping in …certainly appears to have some room to run.

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here’s the QQQ on a daily time frame w/ the target zone denoted. sure looks like another wave of selling should be starting to complete a 5 waves sequence.  Is that A or 1 … if A, then a rally should occur followed by more selling and then a BUY. If 1 then we have, potentially, a lot more downside to come.

I do not know or care which it is ….1 or A.  Just looking for a pattern.

Also, doing a monthly log below to look for key trend line support or breaks.

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In July, we noticed this pattern completing. Yes, we went 3 points thru but the RATIO held and popped big time today.  Watch the median line shown below on the XLP/QQQ and see if price goes thru the line then the sell off could continue.

Thanks!

Bart

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Oracle Sell Pattern in/around 53-56 updated from December 2014 updated 04/01/2018

04/01/2018 – update to ORCL chart below.  Looks like it wanted to go up and finish the ‘long term’ projection.  we have a monthly signal reversal candle as of Thursday so this one could very well be cooked for now.  Still have the upper area for targets but risk is to the downside.  Now, I have no idea what fundamentally happened to cause such a sell off. What I can say is that almost 4 years ago these NUMBERS and this PATTERN were forecasted to cause a top/resistance. So far, they have.

I have NO IDEA what will happen next .. sometimes they work, sometimes they don’t. (the PATTERNS)  Just manage risk and train your mind that it’s all probability.

Also, the second chart is using some of the musical properties of  this move. As you can see, the .886 and .841 retracement levels nailed the low in 2002.  From here, we can use ‘musical math’ and denote 1/X where x= .841 and .886 respectively.  Those numbers (1.1892 and 1.122) are the ratio’s of notes from the equal octave scale of music. As you can see, they were present at the completion of the ‘basic’ projections.

Lastly, an extremely powerful technique shown to me by my mentor and friend Michael Jenkins (www.stockcyclesforecast.com) shows subdividing the signal reversal or DNA of the low candles and projecting up. As you can see, the first projection didn’t work but the second one nailed the high very nicely.

Again, no idea what’s going to happen from here BUT certainly can make the case for a nice correction to come in ORCL.

Bart

 

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September 25, 2017 – trust me, back in December 2014 I didn’t have a clue if 53-56 would ever be hit … target area has been hit and I have no earthly idea what the fundamentals are driving this stock or not … watch the MONTHLY close on this one. If we get a MONTHLY SRC, then we could have a pretty big top in ORCL.

Bart


December 2014 – target appearing on ORCL.

ORCL Monthly

ORCL Monthly

GE for a friend … let me know if you have any questions UPDATE: 03/31/2018

03/31/2017 – I like the .786 level in/around 10.95-11.56.  Note the percentage change from the 2000 high (-64.69%) and how that same percentage change is present now right at the .786 retracement.  We are at 40+ years low on the RSI and some overlapping ratio’s.  It’s do for a very nice bounce.

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12/7/2017 – see below. it’s pretty darn busted up …

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NASDAQ – heads up, big target hit UPDATE – Island Reversal Present on Daily

03/20/2018 – heads up, sure looks like an island reversal present on the NASDAQ monthly.

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not only do we have the 1.618 extension from 2000-2002 being hit but we also have a 1.27 AB=CD from the all time low and a 3.618 WX=YZ all being hit today. this ‘should’ be pretty significant resistance.

a word to the wise is sufficient …

Bart

Value Line (Geometric) Index – another 10% to go? Updated 03/04/2018

target above is still out there … certainly appears feasible to go up and tag it ….604-614 is the zone.

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NVDA

11/03/18 – pretty much a year later and we are, essentially back to the level shown below. While the initial levels shown below did cause a slight pullback the rocketship continued.  Now, we have had a nice retracement that stopped pretty much at the .382 retracement from the all time low.  Over the next couple weeks I would like a correction like the below to form .. from there we’ll know where we are w/ regard to this rocket ship and, probably, the entire market.  Hope the below helps and thanks for asking about NVDA.

also, I do find it pretty amazing that the dashed purple measured move was exactly 1.618 the blue measured move and that is what ultimately stopped this parabolic rise.

Bart

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11/12/2017 – been almost a year since we looked at NVDA.  Below you’ll see the area ID’d for a correction. This level did hold NVDA at bay and the price stayed here for roughly 6 months and THEN EXPLODED.  It’s going parabolic so at a certain point, it should fall like a rock but for now the beat goes on …

did some basic price techniques that show this area ‘should’ hold it or cause a pullback.  it doesn’t have to but it appears that 1700% moves usually cause consolidations or corrections and, yes, you read that correctly: 1700%.  What a rocket ship.

also, you’ll see what happens in the 3rd chart below what happens when the velocity final runs out of gas … it has to fall back down to earth.

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STOXX Banks for a friend overseas …UPDATE 06/09/2019

——————————————————————————————————————–06/09/2019 – well, from our point labeled ‘e’ it’s been straight down. From an Elliott perspective we are in another wave lower and it sure doesn’t look good for the home team. expect lower prices in the coming weeks, months. this doesn’t look good.

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02/28/2019 – well, pattern recognition says you should always BUY or SELL the first AB=CD in an up or down trend. well, the STOXX Banks are almost there w/ regard to an AB=CD sell pattern. So far, the ‘thesis’ around a multi year triangle has worked which means, ultimately, this index will plunge to new lows lower than 20012. Is the next leg down upon us … if the PATTERN works, then yes. If it doesn’t we’ll CTRL-ALT-DEL and look for another pattern. HEADS UP OVER THERE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC!

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05/29/2018 – well, it is certainly not looking good in Europe and, as I just posted, we could certainly be on the verge of a contagion.

Contagion: the ready transmission or spread as of an idea or emotion from person to person.   “A contagion of fear” is what we are talking about …

So, you can see we have completed a ‘pattern’ in the 112 area BUT the candles are huge coming into this level so … expect this to give way but for right now, this is a very important line in the sand.

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04/03/2018 – well, after roughly a year, the consolidation broke to the downside and as crazy as it seems, the triangle thesis is still a probability which is, to say it lightly, pretty darn bearish. So, would expect polarity come into play and former support becomes resistance. If we get back above that support around 126-127 then we’ll continue to evaluate. For now, that’s the resistance line in the sand where support now becomes resistance. Good grief … let me know if you have any questions.  Man, that took a while to break down!

10/21/2017 – continues to consolidate. at present long term/large triangle thesis is still in play. key level remains 114.18.

*** important development. on the daily chart below a very ‘nice’ BUY pattern is appearing a little lower. IF this PATTERN FAILS THEN perhaps this will cause further weakness in STOXX and start to resolve the consolidation that has been going on for 6 months …

 

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08/05/2017 – recent strength appears to want to take out the 139.67 high. However, the key levels still remain as shown below.  A DAILY CLOSE above 144.28 will make me rethink scenario below. Hope this helps …

Bart


 

07/01/2017 – STOXX banks rallied into the target zone to keep the triangle (monthly) thesis alive.  key levels indicated below on STOXX Banks and also the STOXX / US Banking Index. Hawk these levels for strength or weakness.

Be well my friends … Bart

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the KEY here is are we finishing a triangle and this latest leg up represents the final sequence (e) of a,b,c,d,e … the relationship that is giving me a ‘hint’ that this might be the case is the fact that the e is representing .618 of b-c (a common relationship in triangles)  on the charts, that is the green line w/ .618 to the right of the green line.

also the ratio of SOXX banks / US Banks is presented. just because a sector might outperform on a relative strength basis does not mean it will go UP because it’s outperforming.  in this case, it could mean it goes down slower … or, this move up is complete and US banks to outperform.  however, because of the long term downtrend in STRENGTH of STOXX vs US Banks would monitor this closely.   A continued increase and movement in STOXX vs US Banks ALONG with a consolidation or a breakout of the blue shaded box shown on STOXX Banks charts could mean important and notable strength has developed.  Monitor the ratio for clues ..

Hope this helps and thanks for asking and visiting the site .. let me know if you have any questions.

Bart

 

Oracle Sell Pattern in/around 53-56 updated from December 2014 updated 04/01/2018

04/01/2018 – update to ORCL chart below.  Looks like it wanted to go up and finish the ‘long term’ projection.  we have a monthly signal reversal candle as of Thursday so this one could very well be cooked for now.  Still have the upper area for targets but risk is to the downside.  Now, I have no idea what fundamentally happened to cause such a sell off. What I can say is that almost 4 years ago these NUMBERS and this PATTERN were forecasted to cause a top/resistance. So far, they have.

I have NO IDEA what will happen next .. sometimes they work, sometimes they don’t. (the PATTERNS)  Just manage risk and train your mind that it’s all probability.

Also, the second chart is using some of the musical properties of  this move. As you can see, the .886 and .841 retracement levels nailed the low in 2002.  From here, we can use ‘musical math’ and denote 1/X where x= .841 and .886 respectively.  Those numbers (1.1892 and 1.122) are the ratio’s of notes from the equal octave scale of music. As you can see, they were present at the completion of the ‘basic’ projections.

Lastly, an extremely powerful technique shown to me by my mentor and friend Michael Jenkins (www.stockcyclesforecast.com) shows subdividing the signal reversal or DNA of the low candles and projecting up. As you can see, the first projection didn’t work but the second one nailed the high very nicely.

Again, no idea what’s going to happen from here BUT certainly can make the case for a nice correction to come in ORCL.

Bart

 

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September 25, 2017 – trust me, back in December 2014 I didn’t have a clue if 53-56 would ever be hit … target area has been hit and I have no earthly idea what the fundamentals are driving this stock or not … watch the MONTHLY close on this one. If we get a MONTHLY SRC, then we could have a pretty big top in ORCL.

Bart


December 2014 – target appearing on ORCL.

ORCL Monthly

ORCL Monthly

Disney (DIS) looks like a high level triangle has formed and now (or soon) ready to move higher …

7/14/2018 – some nice thrust out of the ‘e’ point gives us a higher probability that the triangle thesis is working.  IF correct then expect equal-above 122 to be the initial target for this leg that should go higher.

once prices get above 122 I would be defensive as triangles ‘usually’ occur in a 4th wave so this should be an end of move once we thrust above the old ATH.  I’ve updated the chart w/ a longer term look at a POTENTIAL count on Disney over the comings months/years.

have a great weekend ..

Bart

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05/16/2018 – with the past couple of days thrust, let’s call the triangle complete and, therefore, over the next couple days/weeks/months expect the ATH of DIS to be taken out …. that being said, triangles tend to occur in 4th waves so a much larger pullback will occur after this run to new ATH.

this analysis is wrong IF we lose low 90’s to the downside for now.

Bart


 

03/17/2017 – well, I just went thru the Disney content below and, amazingly enough, most (if not all) the levels held as support and resistance BUT it appears these levels have formed a big old 30+ month triangle.  Amazing, this puppy topped in August of 2015!

so, the classic triangle is 5 waves labeled a-b-c-d-e.  “Would like to see here or a little lower hold and then start back up for new highs on Disney in the coming months. a close below (on a monthly basis) or lower trendline would make this analysis suspect.

a much more bullish count is potentially shown below.

bottom line is this appears to be a classic triangle w/ 5 waves a-b-c-d-e and ‘should’ move higher upon ‘e’ resolving here or perhaps a little lower

 

09/09/2017 – Disney is getting some attention of late and it’s been a while since I blogged on this American Icon.

Here’s an update:

  • DIS monthly
    • Note, the technique used to find resistance and support w/ the Adam’s pitchfork. When using the pitchfork, sometimes (it’s an art not a science) we take the 3rd point of the pitchfork all the way down (or up) to the low (or high) price forming the geometry. You can see that the pitchfork medium (blue center line) caused the resistance.
    • Now, it certainly looks like Disney (DIS) should go higher after this pullback.  I LOVE it when PATTERNS smack right into Square root targets which are also a square number 9*9 = 81.
      • watch 81 ish as a level of support to begin another leg up on DIS. if we break that second blue line medium fork area then something is really wrong
  • DIS daily
    • note, the market went right up and closed the gap perfectly … it then completed an AB=CD (dashed black line) and has rallied IN A 3 WAVE SEQUENCE … EACH MOVE THUS FAR HAS BEEN 3 WAVES AND, NOTE, THIS CURRENT WAVE IS 3 WAVES (FROM 116 TO 96) … ALL 3 WAVES CAN BE SETTING UP FOR A TRIANGLE (POTENTIALLY) SO THIS AREA HIGHLIGHTED 93-96 WILL TELL US A BUNCH.  If we lose this area to the downside (weekly close below the area w/ thrust perhaps) then we’ll open up the 81 level.

DIS definitely under pressure, next couple days/weeks should resolve where we are …

Have a good weekend, off to paddle board.

B

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I know, shorting Walt Disney World ($DIS) is probably un-american but just calling it like I see em’ …

Below you’ll find a chart showing the parabolic lift off of $DIS.  Note, the Adams Pitchfork.  I made the lower point equal to the all time low and that provides the geometry for “copy” and then “pasting” the pitchforks on top of each other.  You’ll see the median line tagged the high … pretty cool technique to trade/in around.  Also, take note of 4.236 (1.618^3) right around the top. It’s an old axiom that bull or bear runs “like” to go 4.236of the initial impulse move.  We’ve done that …

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next you’ll see the pretty darn big gap that $DIS left as it tagged it’s all time highs and then fell. The blue rectangle is the area still remaining to be potentially be filled.  you can see that it went up on Friday and filled a little bit of the gap, but not all of it.

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the next hart you’ll see a very nice “sell” pattern that completed on Friday.

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Happy Hunting and thanks for reading …

Bart

Molly Hatchet and the Bond Complex – flirting with disaster? Update 04/01/2018

04/01/2018 – update

note, the prices bounced nicely off the long term Pitchfork (extended 1.27) and w/ the RSI buried deeply, this ‘bounce’ might surprise some as we work off an extreme oversold (monthly) condition since 1985. I still hold out that we have a MAJOR top in the Bond Complex and this is an opportunity to go long rates (short bonds) in the coming weeks.

this ‘trend line’ is the line in the sand w/ regard to bonds and the rate complex.

Bart

 

02/10/2018 – update.

note: a potential H+S MONTHLY top for the long bond along w/ a crucial adams pitchfork trendline make the area we are at RIGHT NOW crucial for the bond complex moving forward.

is Molly Hatchet – Flirting With Disaster – on the horizon?

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here’s the daily chart updated showing target area was hit …

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06/20/2017 – tracking SLOWLY up to the desire short zone.  IF (the big IF) we are correct here the next move down is going to be very very strong.  Hold onto your hats.   A hint that the ‘thesis’ is wrong is if we blow thru the highlighted area.  We shouldn’t …

Bart

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1/21/2017 – would really like this to start back up again into the areas highlighted.  could be the trade of the year …

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sent to this to Andy and the gang over the weekend …let me know if you have any questions.

Bart

TLT Update: Long Duration Treasury Bonds Deeply Oversold

ABX is the next move higher upon us? Take a look

10/21/2018

as you can see below, we thought the 11-12 wave promising but the form, proportion and balance hinted of one more lower … that proved to be the case and the 9’s held. I’ve included another nice timing tool.  sometimes – you have to play w/ it  as nothing is perfect – you put the radius vector underneath the high instead of using the low to high vector.  where the circle lands at the 3 o’clock position AND a pattern is visible you have a nice time component …

anyway, IF (always the big if) the count is correct this puppy could roll into the high 20’s and shoot for 28 believe it or not.

look to buy the first pullback …

Bart

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07/21/2018

Note, ABX completed a nice buy pattern at 11.10.  the 11-12 area is promising BUT wave counts could have 1 more move lower into the mid 9’s . either way, believe the next larger move is higher for ABX.  if you look at the charts below, you’ll see the ‘reason’ for the low in the 6’s.

keep this one on your radar screen.

Bart

 


 

04/11/2016 update: ABX gap up today was impressive. this puppy is on a tear ever since it closed at the low of 6.18. HA … pretty cool.

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going back in time, here was the set-up.

$ABX - NOTE the bullish divergence 2 years in the making

$ABX – NOTE the bullish divergence 2 years in the making

So, again, PATTERNS fail and PATTERNS work and it’s all about managing the risk.  NOTE – it went below the “actual” pattern by 60 cents or so but “ultimately” close right at 6.18 (.618)  It’s a Friday and, frankly, I’m too tired to figure out “why” it stopped where it did … but, trust me, there is a reason.

have a good weekend …

B

PS — note, looks like a we are in a 3rd of a 3rd so a pullback “could be coming … believe 18-20 dollars is a very nice target to shoot for.  Will watch over the coming weeks.

Utilities – again, ugh

If you’ve been following me, I saw a very nice SELL PRICE and TIME PATTERN on the Utilities. It worked for a while and then failed as the Utilities continued to climb. I was stopped out of the TBT long I tried and, while not exactly correlated, you can sometimes look at the Utilities and Rates. Figured w/ the SELL PATTERN coming on the Utilities then the TBT should go up. They failed. Back to the drawing board.

so, with fresh eyes, again, I took a look at the Utilities and – again – I see a long term SELL Utilities hitting right now. So, again, folks I’m a pure play pattern recognition investor. ZERO fundamentals. A lot of times the PATTERNS work and sometimes they don’t … probability is in my favor.

for your purview, the DJ Utilities Index and the XLU. Also, threw in a chart showing the 30 year long bond overlaid on the DJ Utilities for what it’s worth. look at the divergence over the past year or so … hmmmm.

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