Molly Hatchet and the Bond Complex – flirting with disaster?

02/10/2018 – update.

note: a potential H+S MONTHLY top for the long bond along w/ a crucial adams pitchfork trendline make the area we are at RIGHT NOW crucial for the bond complex moving forward.

is Molly Hatchet – Flirting With Disaster – on the horizon?



here’s the daily chart updated showing target area was hit …



06/20/2017 – tracking SLOWLY up to the desire short zone.  IF (the big IF) we are correct here the next move down is going to be very very strong.  Hold onto your hats.   A hint that the ‘thesis’ is wrong is if we blow thru the highlighted area.  We shouldn’t …



1/21/2017 – would really like this to start back up again into the areas highlighted.  could be the trade of the year …


sent to this to Andy and the gang over the weekend …let me know if you have any questions.


DB .. KEY BUY PATTERN in work … like I said at the Chart Summit “not sure which work and which don’t” (pattern)

Deutsche Bank – they hold the largest amount of systemic risk in the global banking environment.

As discussed at the Chart Summit I love failed patterns.  We have a BUY PATTERN appearing below on DB … if it holds, breathe a sigh of relief and a move upward ‘should’ occur and that ‘should’ relieve pressure on the system.

If it fails THEN that really isn’t good for the global economy.  At all …

So, put DB on your watch list and see if the 13-15 level holds … if we break thru these levels to the downside, watch out as it’s going to get very interesting.

As always, thanks for visiting the site.


%AB = %CD and, well, that’s all she wrote …XIV

I don’t like to post ‘after the fact’ but I was on some business travel this week and away from my charts.  A while ago I could see the parabolic rise occurring in the XIV (inverse VIX) and made a calculation using log percentage moves * .618.  While the market pulled back (XIV) from this level it took almost the exact percentage moves to complete the pattern.

here’s the link to the post:

did I have ANY idea it was going to thump out of business. absolutely note .. but I did warn that parabolic rises never end well … here’s the chart.

O U C H ….and that’s all she wrote

GE – ratio analysis, it’s the lowest in 40+ years


have been eyeing GE BUY for the past couple weeks and am still hawking the 13.70-14 area.  decided to do a ratio analysis of GE/NYSE.  Folks, it’s the lowest relative strength for GE versus the boarder market (NYSE) in 40+ years.

from a contrarian perspective .. this puppy is really really beaten up.  am going to try and work on some ‘timing’ over the next couple days. NOTE – we are at ALL TIME LOWS in 40+ years on the ratio BUT have not made a NEW LOW on the price chart. hmmmm


12/7/2017 – see below. it’s pretty darn busted up …

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Blackstone Group .. they always show their cards at the ‘perfect’ time …

I remember sending a client either a text or an email … don’t remember which medium but the content was basically “man, that’s going to stink IPO’ing right at a top for Blackstone….”

Just today I read that are leading the biggest buyout since the 2007-2009 financial crisis … are they a reliable contrarian indicator?  Who knows, but it’s something we might want to watch …

Thanks BX!


Honored to present at the Chart Summit this weekend ..

here is the brief, click on the link below:

Chart Summit

Amazing event JC …

Elliott Wave, Porn Hub, Hawaii Missile Warning and @chartsummit. From Bitcoin to Boners …

Thrilled to be a part of the upcoming Chart Summit  hosted by the infamous wine connoisseur, sushi expert and occasional chart geek JC from @allstartcharts.

I owe a lot to JC as he is the one who got me blogging years ago and I am extremely proud of everything he has done for his business and the advancement of TA in the GLOBAL marketplace. He has NEVER changed his character and zest for life .. keep it up dude.

I’m going to present on harmonics, vibration, music, geometry and all that ‘other’ stuff that has no place in the market and doesn’t work.  Trust me, I get it, but it’s the only way I know how to manage risk. ZERO business school classes (my first 11 years out of college (if you want to call it that – USNA) were flying fighters and then software and some consulting and I just kept going down the path of “the numbers where a stock, currency, bond, commodity inflect MEAN SOMETHING.” Read More

now the 7th update on the US Dollar

01/03/2018 – our low forecasted in September below came in ‘on time’ and I’ve been waiting for the next pattern to appear.  Please see below and consider:

  • this is a PERFECT BUY pattern but just like the XLF sell pattern a few months ago they can and will fail!  so, we are pretty much here, now, for a BUY DOLLAR.  If it fails, much like the XLF took off to the upside, the dollar could accelerate to the downside – big time.  so, let’s see what happens …
  • also, if you look ‘way’ down this blog you’ll see the question around is this an A-B-C correction that started back in 2008 OR a 1,2,3,4,5 with a monstrous bull trend in the dollar?  one of the 3 rules of Elliot Wave is that 4 can’t go below (or above) the end of 1 .. right now, if we are in a bull trend THEN the $$$ index can’t close (weekly or monthly for me) below the dashed red line.  It’s sitting around 89-90.
  • also note the updated dashed yellow boxes … in all but 1 (the purple box) of the bounces off the cycle low they pretty much did the same thing and then took off.  That fractal pattern appears to be in play here … so need to see some nice thrust and strength out of this BUY pattern to give the bulls a warm fuzzy.
  • went down to a 4 hour chart to show the geometry and ratio’s at play in this BUY pattern.

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