w/ the big move in copper, companies like FCX have taken off.
it’s a nice picture of a two buy patterns coming into play, a breaking of the inverse head and shoulders and now, POTENTIALLY a move back to the neckline or a little lower for a BUY.
here’s the rub … while this move in copper is IMPRESSIVE I’m not sure if it’s just a counter trend bounce. So … when copper gets up to the 3.0 level I would monitor FCX closely. let me know if you have any questions.
also, note, watch REAL rotation into this stock via AMZN/FCX ratio analysis. Believe it or not, from a relative strength basis, FCX (on a relative strength basis) has outperformed AMZN. So, if it’s really being rotated into … the pattern shown below will fail and go higher, filling the gap and taking off …
well that was “beastly” in the thumping that happened from 86 down to 5 … but it also happened in 2000 and look at the rally. What did JCP do? I have no idea and I don’t care …
but the “beauty” is the POTENTIAL accumulation taking place …
- note the 1.27 extension that caught the all time low again from 1980
- note the almost two year base forming … IF it blows to the upside, this puppy could really run
- now look at the VOLUME. when the low as made .. the volume spike is what we like to call a ‘capitulation low’ and now look to the left and to the right of that high point in volume
- to the left, even as it was being sold sold sold volume was relatively light
- to the right, well the volume is much more pronounced … is it being accumulated for another run?
something to note … that’s all. a 1.27 PATTERN is present so I like that.
Now, the strategy is do you BUY a breakout – I never do as it has a 13.69 stiff polarity staring at it. but the return to the neckline or the breakout point is always a good strategy.
So, put this one on your radar .. again, I have NO IDEA how they are staying alive as a company. perhaps they have some crazy Amazon deal or digital store improvements or perhaps they are going to go bankrupt? If you remember I showed the pattern for ABX https://bartscharts.com/2015/07/19/barrick-gold-abx/ and that puppy ran into the mid 20’s. Additionally, showed the sell for the Banking Index and that got smoked.
I HAVE NO IDEA WHICH ONES WILL WORK just looking for patterns and things that NOBODY else is looking at.
What I can tell you is i LOVE LONG BASES that resolve to the upside … one to watch folks.
11/20/2016 – again, “she’s getting ready to blow” but who knows what direction, right? Just pointing out that we did ‘another’ square out on Friday. This one, as they usually are, was perfect. Math is below on the chart.
I plan on just going w/ a Signal Reversal Candle – if going short the LOW of the candle that made the high is taken out ON CLOSE by the daily or weekly and if going long a close above 2200 (daily or weekly depending on your timeline) should suffice.
Also, the ‘price’ could grind/gravitate up a wall of worry so to speak. but, it’s been my experience that the ‘break down’ or ‘break up’ usually occurs at one of these square out numbers.
Do well, be good and rock on – ok?
11/12/2016 – wanted to provide an update. the ‘square out number’ isn’t static. in fact, it changes every day. in this case, as we continue vortexing thru space we see that we are now, essentially, 2180 days since the ‘birth’ of the S&P 500. Of note, the post election crazy rally was stopped dead in it’s tracks by 2180. that’s the ‘key’ number right now … the market ‘wants’ to balance itself (remember: form, proportion, balance) so it’s no real surprise that the market went right up to that NUMBER.
so, what happens next? I honestly have no idea … but i do know that the market will move from these levels, usually, w/ a vengeance so just hang on to go up or down … a “weekly” close above one of the numbers tied to the square out would be bullish. a big break down below some former support would be bearish.
for now, as we bounce around these harmonic numbers of price/time – just chill and let it make up its mind.
hope this helps.
10/7/16 – just wanted to check in before the weekend. below is a chart that “visually” depicts the SQUARE OUT where PRICE EQUALS TIME and the TREND LINE you can create. In this case you can see the 1×1 is currently the REASON for the resistance on the S&P and then we simply did a 1/2 point/day and, why were were at it, a .382 point/day. HINT – why not try “musical notes” *days since inception or all time low. I bet, if we use, say .9438*days we’ll get close to the 2000 high and, while were are it, 1.05946*days we’ll be resistance on the cash S&P. It’s early on the West Coast … I don’t feel like doing it. Try it yourself.
also, we are using a CONSTANT 1 point/day “velocity” (in this case we use PRICE and TIME to create the vector math) and what else moves in a CONSTANT ? (hint – look up in the sky) YES, you got it … so, while your at it, use a planet and move them a certain amount of degrees in a certain amount of time. How about 100 degrees/100 days – 1 to 1 and see what happens.
Have a GREAT weekend.
08/27/2016 – looks like we are still “squaring out” the date of the inception of the S&P500 w/ this past weeks weekly close.
again, this is not “bearish” or “bullish” but a heads up that at “square outs” stuff happens … go w/ the flow.
rock on, ok?
PATTERNS … work and they fail.
PATTERNS tell us of possible inflection points.
PATTERNS also tell us very important areas of interest to trade around ..
What if .. what if the PATTERN on the cash S&P has finished or is very close to finishing a sell signal?
That would mean we are at major resistance and the market “should” respect a PATTERN that has its genesis from it’s all time low 50 years ago….
IF the market DOES NOT respect this area and goes higher then we are really really really strong and I wold look to go LONG after a monthly or weekly close above these levels.
so, don’t shoot me- I got tons of crap this weekend for posting about the Utilities Pattern hitting (seems to be working so far) and I’m just mentioning that a “classic” AB=CD PATTERN is pretty much done on the S&P.
Pay Attention ….
PS – tons of cycles are hitting this week so just go w/ the flow and catch the wave that should begin soon. No idea which way it goes, it’s just a pattern. TRADE IT or NOT.
PS — also, the you’ll note the SK&P was BORN on March 4, 1957 or 21708 days ago. 21708/10 = 2170.8. Were only 10 points away from that price … if we close below 2171,2172,2173 etc. in the coming days the market has SQUARED OUT PRICE and TIME. “Stuff” usually happens around those occurrences. An FYI …
11/19/2016 – update to JPM.
the pattern in/around the 60’s caused quite the chop fest but was, ultimately, defeated.
now, since the election, JPM has vaulted out of the gate into the ‘big AB=CD’ and extension area … because of such a big candle coming into this level, it begs of caution if trying to short – perhaps look for a weekly or daily signal reversal?
wrong above 84 …
11/19/2016 – if you want to follow the Dollar posts, just search dollar on the top right area of the blog. the overall thesis, which has proven to be correct so far, was the dollar was going to strengthen all the way from the low 70’s. it’s been a nice run …
is there higher to go … yes.
but then …
here’s the picture – note, I’ve used the high from the Plaza Accord in 1985 to put the .382 retracement on the chart. That also overlaps w/ some nice other extension and retracement ratios. Believe the highlighted area in/around 107-108 is going to be key.
also, note the TIME component between the last major rally from 1992-2001. Next month, or, depending on how you draw the time component, perhaps January the Dollar Index should run into some pretty stiff resistance in TIME.
last thing is the Elliott Wave count … I always tell people – I LOVE Elliott wave – when it works. here, the count has been pretty much a “Ray Charles count” on a long term basis. I’ll try to walk you thru the importance:
- market corrects in 3 waves labeled a-b-c
- the market moves impulsively in 5 waves
- wave 2 can’t overlap the beginning of wave 1
- wave 3 can’t be the shortest
- wave 4 can’t overlap the beginning of wave 1
- if you take the low in 2008 and start working your way up we see that we are ‘clearly’ creating 3 waves into yesterdays price action.
- here’s where it gets tricky .. simply, I don’t know if this an a-b-c big corrective move OR we are impulsively going higher in a 1-2-3-4-5 sequence.
- the key here – wave c (of a-b-c) always has to be 5 waves (unless in a triangle)
- so if you look you can see the ‘small’ 1,2,3,4,5 being carved out (Turkey reference) so the blue highlighted area 107-108 COULD be the end of a C wave and the entire A-B-C move OR the end of wave 3 and we correct 4 and then off we go again in 5.
I honestly have no idea ….
Here’s what the charts are SHOWING US:
- square root target
- the ‘time’ of the last corrective move
- the ‘count’ showing we are in the 5th wave of C and 3
- EXTREME sentiment for a strong dollar
- the .382 from the all time high
- divergence set up on Monthly RSI
- ‘other’ extension and retracement targets
Expect some major resistance .. again, we are 6 handles away from the target area and that represents HUGE moves in currency .. BUT remember, right now, we are at extreme (not historic) but extreme sentiment and this has never proven to be wrong from a contrarian indicator. This puppy could snap back on you really really quick.
only TIME will tell … let me know if you have any questions.
folks, so I was asked to take a look at this ETF. I had never looked at it before … but man, what a gorgeous sell pattern. This one worked….looks like the banking index sell signal. some work some don’t – use a stop.
anyway, here’s the PCY Sovereign Debt ETF .. the weekly shows a cliff of support much like crude a while ago before it thumped. the selling pressure appears to have stalled for now (note doji) but it ‘should’ go to 24-25 and that’s where the real fun begins.
one could say the neckline for this entire thing is at 27 or 25 … either way, see the big old thump forming?
let me know if you have any questions.