06/20/2017 – update.
04/15/2017 – XHB has continued higher. It hasn’t made new highs but it sure isn’t showing the weakness that the rest of the overall market is showing right now …I’ve also updated ITB. Note, I didn’t have all the data (not sure why) the last time I posted on this one … the high is in/around 50.
I see strong resistance for XHB and ITB in the coming days/weeks .. I also see 900,000 – 1MM dollar houses in San Diego that are standing inventory all over the place… something will figure itself out, I do know that.
1/30/2017 – TON of standing inventory in the 900,000 range for .00004 acres and <2000 sq ft w/ rates rising. (I know that’s fundamental ‘stuff’ but it helps cast a picture)
a ‘basic’ H+S on the Home-builders sure seems to be building … only ‘TIME’ will tell. note the ‘time’ symmetry between the L and R shoulders. Kind of cool.
be well, do good.
11/14/2016 – since the Election, the XHB ETF has taken off like a rocket ship. You can see below that it hit the .618 retracement from the Spring low of 16′. Upper targets are being shown in around 34-35.
were still working w/ the thesis that the 39 level was the completion of a major sell signal for the homebuilders. This straight up action of late is something to watch closely for this thesis to hold.
of note, a friend of mine sent me this headline:
the rise in foreclosures last month was the highest since the big crash. Something to note .. however, the annual rate is still declining. Is this a divergence forming and a potential inflection point? I don’t know … but price/time will tell us.
Bonds are getting smoked of late causing rates to rise …
For those who have followed me you know that I’m usually ‘first to the party’ and ‘see’ things months if not a year in advance. that’s what patterns tell you … i’m not trying to put any spin on this folks. We are at ZIRP, I have houses all over the place going into standing inventory status, rates are rising and we just had a ‘big’ increase in foreclosures last month. Remember – almost a year before anyone paid attention to the Chinese Yuan I saw the BIG JUMP and said … this is something to notice. (https://bartscharts.com/2014/12/06/most-important-chart-to-end-2014/)
So, that’s all I’m doing again ….
Also, take notice of the big time SELL PATTERN FAILURE on the Banking Index. Multi-level chess game going on right now … trust the patterns and they will all line up. That I know …
Do well, be good and rock on, always.
I sold my house in VA and moved out to SoCal to rent .. did it for a number of reasons. The NUMBER 1 reason was to learn how to Stand Up Paddle-board Surf and enjoy the weather. YES, I understand it’s financial suicide out here .. the taxes are crazy, the cost of living is crazy but the surf is good man …
I was SO HAPPY to unload the house … why? Well, I think we are on the verge of another big old smack down in housing. Of note, my post from March 2013 (yes, 3+ years ago that the home builders had topped in/around 32 did not come to fruition. In essence the pattern failed .. so, it went up to the .786 and also completed the 1/8th signal reversal candle. Now, we’ve rallied right back up to the .786 level and are at the demarcation point.
- this ETF doesn’t want to go below 27. Big support …
- also, note the AB-CD projection down to 25.40 – if we crack from here expect support there and if BULLISH this will hold and bring it to new highs. If it fails … watch out below.
- THOSE are the levels to watch …
- sure looks like a MONTHLY H&S pattern for this ETF … doesn’t it?
To finish the story about San Diego … I was driving around the other day and noticed TONS of standing inventory …plus the houses were selling for 850K to 1.0 + MM. Folks, that dog don’t hunt man …
Also, the PATTERNS suggest a MAJOR top in bonds which means higher rates … so, it’s been 3+ years since my last post on home builders. It’s moved, a little, perhaps it will move more, but man this sure looks like a BIG top is coming in housing ….
Here’s the Home Construction and Home Builders ETF (ITB and EHF)
Again, folks, it’s just PATTERNS. Sometimes they work, sometimes they don’t … but at least we have some guides to support what could (could being the operative word) a BIG OLD THUMP in housing …
06/20/2017 – tracking SLOWLY up to the desire short zone. IF (the big IF) we are correct here the next move down is going to be very very strong. Hold onto your hats. A hint that the ‘thesis’ is wrong is if we blow thru the highlighted area. We shouldn’t …
1/21/2017 – would really like this to start back up again into the areas highlighted. could be the trade of the year …
sent to this to Andy and the gang over the weekend …let me know if you have any questions.
06/17/2017 – I’m learning a ton by blogging. I’m learning that using WEEKLY and MONTHLY charts is my style, I’m learning that locomotive freight train stocks/indices are a beauty to behold but I’m also continually cementing the fact that everything is VIBRATION.
Take for instance WFM. This week, it was announce AMZN was going to buy them. WOW … but I didn’t know that two years ago when I noticed a bunch of numbers based on sacred geometry, music and square roots were all coming together and all these ‘numbers’ held as support.
So, if you want to see how to manage risk .. (OBTW that’s the power of PATTERNS using leading indicators based on vibration and music theory, sacred geometry – YOU KNOW WHERE YOU ARE WRONG) then I urge you to go all the way to the bottom of this post and then work your way up.
For now, note that the announcement this past week exploded the price right to … wait for it .. .right to point of an AB=CD ‘basic’ price projection. Also, note the gap that is standing in it’s way in/around 44-47. Expect some resistance in around there/here but that 2 year consolidation would be a great place to buy against if it gets that low ..
enjoy and have a great weekend. Amazing beach water in San Diego .. going to hit the SUP.
04/29/2017 – consolidated for a long time and finally popped. a MONTHLY close above the first gap top (40) should seek higher.
also, look at daily – lots of gaps in play …
07/24/2016 – appears to be building an ice base to attack daily gap resistance levels and perhaps roll into higher levels. a daily/weekly close back below 28 signals a failed pattern and this analysis is wrong.
here was another update: https://bartscharts.com/2015/11/04/wfm-update/
hope this helps my life long friend … see you in San Diego dude!
I enjoy listening to JC Parets (@allstarcharts) (www.allstarcharts.com ) as he’s entertaining as hell and also knows his stuff. I blame him for getting me blogging and haven’t looked back since …he’s introduced me to blogging, google hang out, twitter and now periscope. today, was doing some emails and “periscope” popped up that he was cruising the charts so I simply hit the app and was immediately logged onto his computer screen where he was pushing some charts around.
one of the charts – Whole Foods. Besides something about overhead supply, divergence, moving averages and stuff like that I called up the chart on a monthly and saw a PERFECT BUY PATTERN.
- note the blue arrows – projects into 27.94
- but more importantly, note that they are equal in PRICE and TIME right in/around here.
- note the extensions (sitting on the 1.27 extension right now)
- 1.4142 extension hits right on the .618 retrace (that’s good) at 27.16-27.21
- last, look at the dashed orange line .. it’s a measured move which represents the largest corrective move since the all times lows in the early 1990’s
So, sure looks like it “should not” go thru 27 so it presents a nice risk reward.
how about some math?
- (square root 65.58-2)^2 = 37.18
- (square root 65.58-4)^2 = 16.79 (right on the .786)
- (square root 65.58-3)^2 = 25.99
so, we have a LOT of thrust coming into this level but a lot of math is coming into play in/around 26-27.
06/13/2017 – “still in play” has been hit which equals a 1.27 and AB-CD on a monthly. Note, the ‘big AB-CD’ from the all time low is around 75. That could still be hit. Wait for a monthly SRC (monthly close below 68) to close or short, I believe.
Back in the saddle .. been a great time off marrying off my first daughter.
03/25/2017 – appears we have some stalling at new all time highs. below is a monthly w/ the fundamental frequency calculated (FFreq) showing the 64-64 area to resistance. if we pull back from here, a logical first stop and perhaps a buy is around the old all time highs in the early 2000’s.
now, below you will see the weekly chart from 2009. lot’s of stuff going on so I’ll break it down:
- blue triangles shows us a POTENTIAL 3 drive to a top pattern. note the time symmetry … very nice
- the blue arrow lines show the AB=CD
- the dashed green lines show another AB=CD (that one goes up to 66 but it’s pretty much there)
- note the horizontal red line – that’s the old all time high
- on the right side of the chart, note the near perfect price symmetry
so, I can see “why” it’s stopped here. a pullback is to be expected but if we break down below the old all time highs on say, a weekly candle, then something might also be up and a bigger move lower could be in the works.
the BIG PATTERN up in/around 72-74 is still in play, but perhaps not quite yet?
10/20/2016 – it’s hard being a musical chartist. inherently you find yourself a contrarian (which you really aren’t) because you just see patterns and music and harmony w/ form, balance and proportion. yes, I get it, MSFT is all the rage because it got to new time highs. but who was ‘talking’ about it when it was about to complete an EXACT pattern based on music and geometry (see below) in/around 13-14 dollars. nobody …also, note, the chart below showing the BUY was “real time” in that, as my faithful readers know, I try really hard to not “should have” or “would have” or “could have” on the chart ….
so, w/ the monster gap up to new highs that opens up the 72-74 area for the next pattern.
note the strength in MSFT .. .618 from Monthly charts (projections) usually cause more resistance.
Here is the BUY on MSFT – some amazing harmony, form, proportion and balance. Just take one second and look at that chart … no idea what is going on w/ their fundamentals and, it was quite the “crazy” time for it to find support during the 2009 thump. But … a PATTERN is a PATTERN is a PATTERN. so, here’s the BUY on MSFT issued in March 2009.
so, where are we now?
we are approaching the .618 from the all time high on decreasing volume and an overall market that “should” be correcting. Time to take some off and get ready for the next wave …in my humble opinion. (note – 50-52 is still a target.)
05/29/2017 – Memorial Day. No matter your political party, it takes all shapes, sizes, color, sexual identity and anything else to run the military of the United States. It’s flipping amazing and I’m so so so honored to have done my small part ….
for some background, back in the day, the F-14 Community would throw a yearly party called the Fighter Fling. It was truly a blast .. the ladies got all dressed up, the crews got their “mess dress” w/ medals on and then the party, well, started. I’ll just leave it at that …
the ‘highlight’ of the ball was the annual video which everyone submitted action shots for …
I can’t remember a fighter fling where – at the end of it – there wasn’t a memorial for someone who had lost his/her life flying. Every single year.
Well, as many of you know, the F-14 was decommissioned and taken over by the FA-18. (smart decision OBTW) In 2004 the Fighter Community got together for one last ball and at the end of the fighter fling video the list of names of everyone who had perished flying and F-14 was listed. It’s a pretty long list …
So, this is my blog and I can do what I want (note the South Park reference). Just wanted to have a few w/ a Navy background and a few w/out to recognize the list of names and if, time permitting, you could just close your eyes and take a deep breadth that would be cool.
Everyone rock on – ok?
fast forward to 17:25 as it’s pretty cool what they did w/ Van Halen “RIGHT NOW” .. but to get to the list of names go to 22:34.
Dollar Index since the Plaza Accord …room to run, BUT (?) …UPDATED and UPDATED and UPDATED and UPDATED and UPDATED again
05/29/2017 – warning, this is going to get geeky. sorry …
first chart below is of the Euro. Much like the Chief, sure appears that it’s ‘time’ for the dollar to rally. Note below, the time component of the rally off the lows. folks, this isn’t easy and I’ve talked to multiple people this weekend about “is the dollar toast” or is the “king dollar going to roar again”. I DO NOT KNOW … but, in the next couple weeks, w/ sentiment down at 8% dollar bulls we are do for a pause or a dollar rally.
I want to insert this chart on the dollar index, I posted it a couple months ago and it was showing the mathematical harmony. This is important because the ‘high’ that occurred a couple months ago ‘made sense’ in terms of resistance. the math was perfect …
but here is the rub … have we completed an Elliott Wave corrective A-B-C and the dollar is toast OR are we correcting 4 of 5 right now …?
So, if you read below we looked for May 2017 to be a cycle and so far it has worked … that being said, I apologize again but I need to go do a little “Elliott stuff” to get a picture for the roadmap.
Some background: I am a CMT and w/ that designation comes a modicum of understanding of Elliott Wave. (it’s a requirement) That being said I also trained under the Master Constance Brown (http://aeroinvest.com/) not once but twice! (she also told me at one point to never count a wave again ) … to add to that I actually taught the CMT (i) Level III Elliott Wave online to hundreds of students. What’s that mean … I love Elliott Wave – when it works! (Work w/ me folks, that was supposed to be funny.)
Elliott Wave rules of the road:
- Trust and do not break the RULES. There are only 3 ….
- Wave 3 can’t be the shortest
- Wave 2 cannot go below/above Wave 1
- Wave 4 cannot overlap ANY of Wave 1.
- Master the corrections …
- Triangles, Flats, Expanded Flats, Zig-Zag, W-X-Y, double and triple threes
- Learn to recognize B waves .. (hint – they are always 3 waves)
- Learn to recognize a 3rd of a 3rd (read: thrust)
- Learn to use and trust LONG TERM (monthly and weekly) Elliott Wave counts … intraday is hard as hell.
- DO NOT USE Elliott in isolation …ever. use a MA, oscillator, price targets, RSI, etc. etc.
So, there you have it … it’s a very helpful tool (that’s all it is) and it’s NOT the panacea. it’s a tool folks …
but, it’s important right now w/ regard to the dollar index.
here’s the BEARISH VIEW – we finished an A-B-C correction (note on the cycle month) and down she goes …
here’s the BULLISH VIEW – we just finished 3 and are correcting in 4 and a new high on the USD is to be made w/ a 5 up ….
so, here’s where I really think we are:
- I want us to notice the 3rd of a 3rd action below. That certainly makes me think we just finished the 3 ….
- Note the ‘range’ transition that occurred w/ the RSI – if we are patient enough on a LONG TERM charts the RSI will ‘tell you’ when it moves from the bearish to bullish ranges or vice versa. in this case … believe we moved up into the bullish zone and the dollar will, in due time, continue to advance higher after this correction (is it ending?)
- Dollar Bulls are at 8%
so, in conclusion, I see patterns and sentiment that call for a dollar low/rally. as this rally progresses it will take on 5 waves or 3 waves and then a PATTERN to SELL DOLLARS will appear. IF it fails THEN the dollar rallies and IF it works then the dollar fails and we could be at the A-B-C TOP and the dollar is really really going to take it on the chin.
It’s all probability folks … that’s all it is. I HAVE NO IDEA which way it will go and really don’t care. Give it a shot and use a stop.
05/17/2017 – well here we go … as you will see we are sitting on the BOTTOM of the BUY RANGE PATTERN that we have been waiting for….some STRONG THRUST DOWN so that begs caution. BUT, note the TIME component of the 3 drives the symmetry is pretty awesome.
so – pause/wait and IF the dashed red trend line is taken out to the upside on a WEEKLY CLOSE (98.50) then perhaps the next big run has begun.
05/07/2017 – Happy “insert name here” day … have you noticed that Social Media is making a “insert name here” day for everything? So, for me, I say “Happy Dollar Index Update” day … as an FYI, that’s May 7, 2017.
Anyhoo – man this is getting interesting. I’ve updated both the 4 hour and the monthly since Plaza chart below.
Let’s pay attention to 3 things:
- the level shown back on April Fools Day is now even more important. As you can see below, we now have 2 projections into the same area, we have a 3 drives to a bottom forming and have added another ratio to this area. WOW ..kind of important.
- on the monthly, notice the blue rectangle w/ time above/below it. That represents, in months, the EXACT time it took to rally after falling from 164 and it hit – exactly – from the rally low in 2008 to now. The key here is that it hit right at a very powerful PRICE relationship. it was an exact 1.618 price projection relationship. Very well could have finished A-B-C Elliott Wave correction – we simply don’t know yet … is this a 3 or a C. (that’s the big deal)
- also, on the monthly, note the cycle we started from 1985. It’s smacking right into May (now) and so …it DID NOT rally up into the ‘target zone’ ID’d and it’s finishing an important BUY pattern in the 98-99 area. IF THIS HOLDS and rallies us UP into the target zone we still have to consider this to be a BIG resistance area ALONG w/ time so …
W/ all of this going on AND w/ the French doing the elections right now believe this will resolve – SOON.
WATCH 98-99 level for the first chess move to occur … hope this helps.
04/01/2017 – Happy April Fools Day!
per below, the US Dollar Index smacked right into our target …but, the PATTERN certainly looks like one more wave ahead. Then, well, things are going to get really interesting! Next stop is more than likely 106-108 on the index.
it’s quite clear to see 5 waves completing up into that area …
also, was ‘hoping’ for a deeper correction as shown on the dollar index but the ‘fundamental frequency’ stopped it and, for now, probability says a low is in place for the USD and it should vault higher in the coming weeks.
one last, on the chart below, note the cycle tops from 1985, 2001 line up in May 2015.
Going to get really interesting.
1/14/2017 – if your into harmonics and patterns, then read below. If you just want the bottom line up font (BLUF) then read this: WAIT to do anything on the US Dollar.
Obviously, I’m “called” or “attracted” to a movie like this because of the amazing synchronicity to ‘string theory’ and ‘time’ … so if I really want to go ‘deep’, so to speak, I will play a soundtrack like this w/ only this music in the background and a chart …
what’s most important .. ? where are we now ..,
- there is BEARISH RSI divergence on the monthly
- the TIME component (a big deal) is EXACTLY equal to the last major rally in the index since the Plaza Accord
- the most recent high is a 1.1618 projection and EXACTLY .786 the rally from 1995-2201 – EXACTLY
- we have RECORD NEGATIVE/BEARISH sentiment for the EURO (a major component of the index)
- see blog and note the cycles on the POUND and the AUSSIE and LOONIE
- note: the RSI ‘transition’ to higher support zones … that’s bullish
So, UNFORTUNATELY, my friend we need to WAIT and IF (the big IF ) every thing is to come together then we should see support come in around 92-95 to get long on the dollar.
PS – you read it here … I’m REALLY ‘believing’ (not supposed to do that) that the $$$ will find support in/around the areas sighted below. BUT .. if you try and SEE the picture that’s painted .. this COULD BE A MONSTROUS $$$ TOP. How will we know …. no flipping idea. You guys/gals tell me ….
12/30/2016 – updating the US Dollar Index post
- bearish divergence – check
- 1.618 price projection hit – is this an a-b-c correction and the dollar has peaked? Potentially … or is wave 3 of 5 concluding w/ a pull back imminent?
- SENTIMENT is extreme bearish for the EURO and GOLD
- note – we are hitting the same TIME correction in a couple days as the move up from 1992-2001
- Economist .. the best contrarian indicator out there.
CLIFF NOTES: if you read below you’ll see there are other targets higher. We are approaching the same TIME as the last move up in the dollar against the smash from the Plaza accord so the ‘no brainer’ long dollar trade is one that begs of caution. Is this THE top in the USD and now we go back below 70? Don’t know, but a preponderance of evidence suggests STIFF resistance from now into January for the USD.
11/19/2016 – if you want to follow the Dollar posts, just search dollar on the top right area of the blog. the overall thesis, which has proven to be correct so far, was the dollar was going to strengthen all the way from the low 70’s. it’s been a nice run …
is there higher to go … yes.
but then …
here’s the picture – note, I’ve used the high from the Plaza Accord in 1985 to put the .382 retracement on the chart. That also overlaps w/ some nice other extension and retracement ratios. Believe the highlighted area in/around 107-108 is going to be key.
also, note the TIME component between the last major rally from 1992-2001. Next month, or, depending on how you draw the time component, perhaps January the Dollar Index should run into some pretty stiff resistance in TIME.
last thing is the Elliott Wave count … I always tell people – I LOVE Elliott wave – when it works. here, the count has been pretty much a “Ray Charles count” on a long term basis. I’ll try to walk you thru the importance:
- market corrects in 3 waves labeled a-b-c
- the market moves impulsively in 5 waves
- wave 2 can’t overlap the beginning of wave 1
- wave 3 can’t be the shortest
- wave 4 can’t overlap the beginning of wave 1
- if you take the low in 2008 and start working your way up we see that we are ‘clearly’ creating 3 waves into yesterdays price action.
- here’s where it gets tricky .. simply, I don’t know if this an a-b-c big corrective move OR we are impulsively going higher in a 1-2-3-4-5 sequence.
- the key here – wave c (of a-b-c) always has to be 5 waves (unless in a triangle)
- so if you look you can see the ‘small’ 1,2,3,4,5 being carved out (Turkey reference) so the blue highlighted area 107-108 COULD be the end of a C wave and the entire A-B-C move OR the end of wave 3 and we correct 4 and then off we go again in 5.
I honestly have no idea ….
Here’s what the charts are SHOWING US:
- square root target
- the ‘time’ of the last corrective move
- the ‘count’ showing we are in the 5th wave of C and 3
- EXTREME sentiment for a strong dollar
- the .382 from the all time high
- divergence set up on Monthly RSI
- ‘other’ extension and retracement targets
Expect some major resistance .. again, we are 6 handles away from the target area and that represents HUGE moves in currency .. BUT remember, right now, we are at extreme (not historic) but extreme sentiment and this has never proven to be wrong from a contrarian indicator. This puppy could snap back on you really really quick.
only TIME will tell … let me know if you have any questions.