NASDAQ – heads up, big target hit UPDATE – Island Reversal Present on Daily

03/20/2018 – heads up, sure looks like an island reversal present on the NASDAQ monthly.


not only do we have the 1.618 extension from 2000-2002 being hit but we also have a 1.27 AB=CD from the all time low and a 3.618 WX=YZ all being hit today. this ‘should’ be pretty significant resistance.

a word to the wise is sufficient …


Value Line (Geometric) Index – another 10% to go? Updated 03/04/2018

target above is still out there … certainly appears feasible to go up and tag it ….604-614 is the zone.


Disney (DIS) looks like a high level triangle has formed and now (or soon) ready to move higher …

03/17/2017 – well, I just went thru the Disney content below and, amazingly enough, most (if not all) the levels held as support and resistance BUT it appears these levels have formed a big old 30+ month triangle.  Amazing, this puppy topped in August of 2015!

so, the classic triangle is 5 waves labeled a-b-c-d-e.  “Would like to see here or a little lower hold and then start back up for new highs on Disney in the coming months. a close below (on a monthly basis) or lower trendline would make this analysis suspect.

a much more bullish count is potentially shown below.

bottom line is this appears to be a classic triangle w/ 5 waves a-b-c-d-e and ‘should’ move higher upon ‘e’ resolving here or perhaps a little lower


09/09/2017 – Disney is getting some attention of late and it’s been a while since I blogged on this American Icon.

Here’s an update:

  • DIS monthly
    • Note, the technique used to find resistance and support w/ the Adam’s pitchfork. When using the pitchfork, sometimes (it’s an art not a science) we take the 3rd point of the pitchfork all the way down (or up) to the low (or high) price forming the geometry. You can see that the pitchfork medium (blue center line) caused the resistance.
    • Now, it certainly looks like Disney (DIS) should go higher after this pullback.  I LOVE it when PATTERNS smack right into Square root targets which are also a square number 9*9 = 81.
      • watch 81 ish as a level of support to begin another leg up on DIS. if we break that second blue line medium fork area then something is really wrong
  • DIS daily
    • note, the market went right up and closed the gap perfectly … it then completed an AB=CD (dashed black line) and has rallied IN A 3 WAVE SEQUENCE … EACH MOVE THUS FAR HAS BEEN 3 WAVES AND, NOTE, THIS CURRENT WAVE IS 3 WAVES (FROM 116 TO 96) … ALL 3 WAVES CAN BE SETTING UP FOR A TRIANGLE (POTENTIALLY) SO THIS AREA HIGHLIGHTED 93-96 WILL TELL US A BUNCH.  If we lose this area to the downside (weekly close below the area w/ thrust perhaps) then we’ll open up the 81 level.

DIS definitely under pressure, next couple days/weeks should resolve where we are …

Have a good weekend, off to paddle board.



I know, shorting Walt Disney World ($DIS) is probably un-american but just calling it like I see em’ …

Below you’ll find a chart showing the parabolic lift off of $DIS.  Note, the Adams Pitchfork.  I made the lower point equal to the all time low and that provides the geometry for “copy” and then “pasting” the pitchforks on top of each other.  You’ll see the median line tagged the high … pretty cool technique to trade/in around.  Also, take note of 4.236 (1.618^3) right around the top. It’s an old axiom that bull or bear runs “like” to go 4.236of the initial impulse move.  We’ve done that …


next you’ll see the pretty darn big gap that $DIS left as it tagged it’s all time highs and then fell. The blue rectangle is the area still remaining to be potentially be filled.  you can see that it went up on Friday and filled a little bit of the gap, but not all of it.


the next hart you’ll see a very nice “sell” pattern that completed on Friday.


Happy Hunting and thanks for reading …


Molly Hatchet and the Bond Complex – flirting with disaster?

02/10/2018 – update.

note: a potential H+S MONTHLY top for the long bond along w/ a crucial adams pitchfork trendline make the area we are at RIGHT NOW crucial for the bond complex moving forward.

is Molly Hatchet – Flirting With Disaster – on the horizon?



here’s the daily chart updated showing target area was hit …



06/20/2017 – tracking SLOWLY up to the desire short zone.  IF (the big IF) we are correct here the next move down is going to be very very strong.  Hold onto your hats.   A hint that the ‘thesis’ is wrong is if we blow thru the highlighted area.  We shouldn’t …



1/21/2017 – would really like this to start back up again into the areas highlighted.  could be the trade of the year …


sent to this to Andy and the gang over the weekend …let me know if you have any questions.


Value Line (Geometric) Index – another 10% to go? Updated 03/04/2018

target above is still out there … certainly appears feasible to go up and tag it ….604-614 is the zone.


Love you long time …? Does this pertain to the economy?

First off, I love the Hustle. I look forward to it every AM and thank my good friend MM for introducing me to it … they did a GREAT email today about ‘bang bang’ birth rates and it’s correlation to recessions over the past 15 years. As a data junky would certainly like more data BUT it’s a pretty compelling look at the ‘nasty’ affects of declining birth rates and their predictor of recessions.

note, I ‘see’ 5 waves up complete and an a-b-c Elliott Wave correction unfolding .. also, looks like a head and shoulders has formed so if you want the economy to keep humming you might want to … well, you get the point.  LOLOLOLOLOL

The Hustle:  ….. sign up these guys/gals rock!


DB .. KEY BUY PATTERN in work … like I said at the Chart Summit “not sure which work and which don’t” (pattern)

Deutsche Bank – they hold the largest amount of systemic risk in the global banking environment.

As discussed at the Chart Summit I love failed patterns.  We have a BUY PATTERN appearing below on DB … if it holds, breathe a sigh of relief and a move upward ‘should’ occur and that ‘should’ relieve pressure on the system.

If it fails THEN that really isn’t good for the global economy.  At all …

So, put DB on your watch list and see if the 13-15 level holds … if we break thru these levels to the downside, watch out as it’s going to get very interesting.

As always, thanks for visiting the site.


%AB = %CD and, well, that’s all she wrote …XIV

I don’t like to post ‘after the fact’ but I was on some business travel this week and away from my charts.  A while ago I could see the parabolic rise occurring in the XIV (inverse VIX) and made a calculation using log percentage moves * .618.  While the market pulled back (XIV) from this level it took almost the exact percentage moves to complete the pattern.

here’s the link to the post:

did I have ANY idea it was going to thump out of business. absolutely note .. but I did warn that parabolic rises never end well … here’s the chart.

O U C H ….and that’s all she wrote

GE – ratio analysis, it’s the lowest in 40+ years


have been eyeing GE BUY for the past couple weeks and am still hawking the 13.70-14 area.  decided to do a ratio analysis of GE/NYSE.  Folks, it’s the lowest relative strength for GE versus the boarder market (NYSE) in 40+ years.

from a contrarian perspective .. this puppy is really really beaten up.  am going to try and work on some ‘timing’ over the next couple days. NOTE – we are at ALL TIME LOWS in 40+ years on the ratio BUT have not made a NEW LOW on the price chart. hmmmm


12/7/2017 – see below. it’s pretty darn busted up …

Read More

%d bloggers like this: