Quick update – FED FUNDS INTEREST RATE FUTURES – FF

05/22/2017 –  take note of the ‘potential’ for the polarity principle to take place.  in this case, where there is resistance there ‘should be’ support.

***note: the gap down below the former resistance w/ this months action. something to watch … a gap down and move lower signifies higher interest rates.  monitor closely.

have a good night.

B

Dollar Index since the Plaza Accord …room to run, BUT (?) …UPDATED and UPDATED and UPDATED and UPDATED again

05/17/2017 – well here we go … as you will see we are sitting on the BOTTOM of the BUY RANGE PATTERN that we have been waiting for….some STRONG THRUST DOWN so that begs caution.  BUT, note the TIME component of the 3 drives the symmetry is pretty awesome.

so – pause/wait and IF the dashed red trend line is taken out to the upside on a WEEKLY CLOSE (98.50) then perhaps the next big run has begun.

Bart

____________________________________________________________________________________________________

05/07/2017 – Happy “insert name here” day … have you noticed that Social Media is making a “insert name here” day for everything?  So, for me, I say “Happy Dollar Index Update” day … as an FYI, that’s May 7, 2017.

Anyhoo – man this is getting interesting.  I’ve updated both the 4 hour and the monthly since Plaza chart below.

Let’s pay attention to 3 things:

  • the level shown back on April Fools Day is now even more important. As you can see below, we now have 2 projections into the same area, we have a 3 drives to a bottom forming and have added another ratio to this area.  WOW ..kind of important.
  • on the monthly, notice the blue rectangle w/ time above/below it.  That represents, in months, the EXACT time it took to rally after falling from 164 and it hit – exactly – from the rally low in 2008 to now. The key here is that it hit right at a very powerful PRICE relationship.  it was an exact 1.618 price projection relationship.  Very well could have finished A-B-C Elliott Wave correction – we simply don’t know yet … is this a 3 or a C.  (that’s the big deal)
  • also, on the monthly, note the cycle we started from 1985. It’s smacking right into May (now) and so …it DID NOT rally up into the ‘target zone’ ID’d and it’s finishing an important BUY pattern in the 98-99 area.  IF THIS HOLDS and rallies us UP into the target zone we still have to consider this to be a BIG resistance area ALONG w/ time so …

W/ all of this going on AND w/ the French doing the elections right now believe this will resolve – SOON.

WATCH 98-99 level for the first chess move to occur … hope this helps.

 

_____________________________________________________________________________________

04/01/2017 – Happy April Fools Day!

per below, the US Dollar Index smacked right into our target …but, the PATTERN certainly looks like one more wave ahead. Then, well, things are going to get really interesting!  Next stop is more than likely 106-108 on the index.

it’s quite clear to see 5 waves completing up into that area …

also, was ‘hoping’ for a deeper correction as shown on the dollar index but the ‘fundamental frequency’ stopped it and, for now, probability says a low is in place for the USD and it should vault higher in the coming weeks.

one last, on the chart below, note the cycle tops from 1985, 2001 line up in May 2015.

Going to get really interesting.

________________________________________________________________________________

1/14/2017 – if your into harmonics and patterns, then read below. If you just want the bottom line up font (BLUF) then read this: WAIT to do anything on the US Dollar.

 

unnamed

Obviously, I’m “called” or “attracted” to a movie like this because of the amazing synchronicity to ‘string theory’ and ‘time’ … so if I really want to go ‘deep’, so to speak, I will play a soundtrack like this w/ only this music in the background and a chart …

what’s most important .. ? where are we now ..,

  • there is BEARISH RSI divergence on the monthly
  • the TIME component (a big deal) is EXACTLY equal to the last major rally in the index since the Plaza Accord
  •  the most recent high is a 1.1618 projection and EXACTLY .786 the rally from 1995-2201 – EXACTLY
  • we have RECORD NEGATIVE/BEARISH sentiment for the EURO (a major component of the index)
  • see blog and note the cycles on the POUND and the AUSSIE and LOONIE
  • note: the RSI ‘transition’ to higher support zones … that’s bullish

So, UNFORTUNATELY, my friend we need to WAIT and IF (the big IF ) every thing is to come together then we should see support come in around 92-95 to get long on the dollar.

Bart

PS – you read it here … I’m REALLY ‘believing’ (not supposed to do that) that the $$$ will find support in/around the areas sighted below. BUT .. if you try and SEE the picture that’s painted .. this COULD BE A MONSTROUS $$$ TOP. How will we know …. no flipping idea. You guys/gals tell me ….

page_17-01-14_22-52-59


12/30/2016 – updating the US Dollar Index post

  • bearish divergence – check
  • 1.618 price projection hit – is this an a-b-c correction and the dollar has peaked? Potentially … or is wave 3 of 5 concluding w/ a pull back imminent?
  • SENTIMENT is extreme bearish for the EURO and GOLD
  • note – we are hitting the same TIME correction in a couple days as the move up from 1992-2001
  • Economist .. the best contrarian indicator out there.

CLIFF NOTES: if you read below you’ll see there are other targets higher.  We are approaching the same TIME as the last move up in the dollar against the smash from the Plaza accord so the ‘no brainer’ long dollar trade is one that begs of caution.  Is this THE top in the USD and now we go back below 70?  Don’t know, but a preponderance of evidence suggests STIFF resistance from now into January for the USD.

dollar

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11/19/2016 – if you want to follow the Dollar posts, just search dollar on the top right area of the blog.  the overall thesis, which has proven to be correct so far, was the dollar was going to strengthen all the way from the low 70’s.  it’s been a nice run …

is there higher to go … yes.

but then …

here’s the picture – note, I’ve used the high from the Plaza Accord in 1985 to put the .382 retracement on the chart. That also overlaps w/ some nice other extension and retracement ratios.  Believe the highlighted area in/around 107-108 is going to be key.

also, note the TIME component between the last major rally from 1992-2001.  Next month, or, depending on how you draw the time component, perhaps January the Dollar Index should run into some pretty stiff resistance in TIME.

last thing is the Elliott Wave count … I always tell people – I LOVE Elliott wave – when it works.  here, the count has been pretty much a “Ray Charles count” on a long term basis.  I’ll try to walk you thru the importance:

  • market corrects in 3 waves labeled a-b-c
  • the market moves impulsively in 5 waves
    • wave 2 can’t overlap the beginning of wave 1
    • wave 3 can’t be the shortest
    • wave 4 can’t overlap the beginning of wave 1
  • if you take the low in 2008 and start working your way up we see that we are ‘clearly’ creating 3 waves into yesterdays price action.
    • here’s where it gets tricky .. simply, I don’t know if this an a-b-c big corrective move OR we are impulsively going higher in a 1-2-3-4-5 sequence.
    • the key here – wave c (of a-b-c) always has to be 5 waves (unless in a triangle)
      • so if you look you can see the ‘small’ 1,2,3,4,5 being carved out (Turkey reference) so the blue highlighted area 107-108 COULD be the end of a C wave and the entire A-B-C move OR the end of wave 3 and we correct 4 and then off we go again in 5.

I honestly have no idea …. 

Here’s what the charts are SHOWING US:

  • square root target
  • the ‘time’ of the last corrective move
  • the ‘count’ showing we are in the 5th wave of C and 3
  • EXTREME sentiment for a strong dollar
  • the .382 from the all time high
  • divergence set up on Monthly RSI
  • ‘other’ extension and retracement targets

Expect some major resistance .. again, we are 6 handles away from the target area and that represents HUGE moves in currency .. BUT remember, right now, we are at extreme (not historic) but extreme sentiment and this has never proven to be wrong from a contrarian indicator. This puppy could snap back on you really really quick.

only TIME will tell … let me know if you have any questions.

B

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bottoms and tops of circles …S&P 500 an update

05/17/2016 – the noise in the market right now is crazy – bull this, bear that, Trump this, Fed that and on and on …today’s sell off hit the top of a circle.  see how easy that makes it …? the below was posted 5 months ago looking at this area for a resistance zone.  there is a reason but perhaps it’s as simple as it was the top of a circle?  Probably not, but that’s what I think …

 

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

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sometimes you eat the bar and sometimes the bar eats you …

Well … sheesh.  let’s see …

  • MCD – KABOOM did that pattern fail or what?
  • GOOGL – OUCH, did that pattern fail or what?
  • PCLN – smack down baby, did that pattern fail or what?
  • NFLX – trend line held baby and KABOOM 2, did that pattern fail or what?
  • XHB – hanging in there .. not showing that much strength but it certainly hasn’t crumbled
  • AMZN – see above … holy smokes
  • XIV – inverse VIX, it’s a flipping Saturn 5 (that’s a rocket ship) higher
  • MSFT – where are you … ?  Looking for that 72-73 zone
  • TREE – bonk, ouch the apple fell from the tree and KABOOM higher
  • LOW – gap up and bam ..higher

so, if your a follower of mine you can go back and put these symbols into the ‘search’ cue and you’ll see that these patterns fail.  And that’s the point … guess what they fail.

the key here is these are runaway trains of buying … holy smokes, look at some of the monthly candles.

for me, for all these patterns to fail so gracefully well, that scares me … euphoria and chaos have hit.  who knows how long this will continue but it will end badly.

enjoy the ride while you can … but use a ‘monthly’ signal reversal or weekly signal reversal to book profits or get conservative … sheesh, these are runaway trains.

Again, as the Cowboy says on the Big Labowski – “sometimes you eat the bar and sometimes the bar eats you.” I get it … thanks Cowboy.

Bart

PS – also, I do enjoy you my followers so if you look, there is some nice patterns that worked.

EEM and HYG

So, guess, of late, all the rage is the EEM new bull market.

VERY HARD to believe but … let’s remove the subjectivity and pull out some patterns:

EEM:

  • banging right into .618/.786 retracement confluence – usually very strong R or S. in this case R.
  • Note – a basic projection takes us up into the 45-46 area
  • Double trend line resistance

HYG – high yield debt

  • note, it’s been hanging at the .618 for basically 4 months … sure looks like it wants to break out higher.

IF HYG breaks the .618 expect the EEM to target the upper zone of the red box …

IF HYG does not break above the .618 and starts back down THEN perhaps the EEM will start down from current levels.

either way, believe we can goose a little more in the EEM world and the HYG world but .. stiff resistance ahead.

Also, note how correlated HYG (high yield DEBT) is w/ the EMERGING MARKETS (EEM) … hmmmmmmmm

Bart

 

Dollar Index since the Plaza Accord …room to run, BUT (?) …UPDATED and UPDATED and UPDATE again

05/07/2017 – Happy “insert name here” day … have you noticed that Social Media is making a “insert name here” day for everything?  So, for me, I say “Happy Dollar Index Update” day … as an FYI, that’s May 7, 2017.

Anyhoo – man this is getting interesting.  I’ve updated both the 4 hour and the monthly since Plaza chart below.

Let’s pay attention to 3 things:

  • the level shown back on April Fools Day is now even more important. As you can see below, we now have 2 projections into the same area, we have a 3 drives to a bottom forming and have added another ratio to this area.  WOW ..kind of important.
  • on the monthly, notice the blue rectangle w/ time above/below it.  That represents, in months, the EXACT time it took to rally after falling from 164 and it hit – exactly – from the rally low in 2008 to now. The key here is that it hit right at a very powerful PRICE relationship.  it was an exact 1.618 price projection relationship.  Very well could have finished A-B-C Elliott Wave correction – we simply don’t know yet … is this a 3 or a C.  (that’s the big deal)
  • also, on the monthly, note the cycle we started from 1985. It’s smacking right into May (now) and so …it DID NOT rally up into the ‘target zone’ ID’d and it’s finishing an important BUY pattern in the 98-99 area.  IF THIS HOLDS and rallies us UP into the target zone we still have to consider this to be a BIG resistance area ALONG w/ time so …

W/ all of this going on AND w/ the French doing the elections right now believe this will resolve – SOON.

WATCH 98-99 level for the first chess move to occur … hope this helps.

 

_____________________________________________________________________________________

04/01/2017 – Happy April Fools Day!

per below, the US Dollar Index smacked right into our target …but, the PATTERN certainly looks like one more wave ahead. Then, well, things are going to get really interesting!  Next stop is more than likely 106-108 on the index.

it’s quite clear to see 5 waves completing up into that area …

also, was ‘hoping’ for a deeper correction as shown on the dollar index but the ‘fundamental frequency’ stopped it and, for now, probability says a low is in place for the USD and it should vault higher in the coming weeks.

one last, on the chart below, note the cycle tops from 1985, 2001 line up in May 2015.

Going to get really interesting.

________________________________________________________________________________

1/14/2017 – if your into harmonics and patterns, then read below. If you just want the bottom line up font (BLUF) then read this: WAIT to do anything on the US Dollar.

 

unnamed

Obviously, I’m “called” or “attracted” to a movie like this because of the amazing synchronicity to ‘string theory’ and ‘time’ … so if I really want to go ‘deep’, so to speak, I will play a soundtrack like this w/ only this music in the background and a chart …

what’s most important .. ? where are we now ..,

  • there is BEARISH RSI divergence on the monthly
  • the TIME component (a big deal) is EXACTLY equal to the last major rally in the index since the Plaza Accord
  •  the most recent high is a 1.1618 projection and EXACTLY .786 the rally from 1995-2201 – EXACTLY
  • we have RECORD NEGATIVE/BEARISH sentiment for the EURO (a major component of the index)
  • see blog and note the cycles on the POUND and the AUSSIE and LOONIE
  • note: the RSI ‘transition’ to higher support zones … that’s bullish

So, UNFORTUNATELY, my friend we need to WAIT and IF (the big IF ) every thing is to come together then we should see support come in around 92-95 to get long on the dollar.

Bart

PS – you read it here … I’m REALLY ‘believing’ (not supposed to do that) that the $$$ will find support in/around the areas sighted below. BUT .. if you try and SEE the picture that’s painted .. this COULD BE A MONSTROUS $$$ TOP. How will we know …. no flipping idea. You guys/gals tell me ….

page_17-01-14_22-52-59


12/30/2016 – updating the US Dollar Index post

  • bearish divergence – check
  • 1.618 price projection hit – is this an a-b-c correction and the dollar has peaked? Potentially … or is wave 3 of 5 concluding w/ a pull back imminent?
  • SENTIMENT is extreme bearish for the EURO and GOLD
  • note – we are hitting the same TIME correction in a couple days as the move up from 1992-2001
  • Economist .. the best contrarian indicator out there.

CLIFF NOTES: if you read below you’ll see there are other targets higher.  We are approaching the same TIME as the last move up in the dollar against the smash from the Plaza accord so the ‘no brainer’ long dollar trade is one that begs of caution.  Is this THE top in the USD and now we go back below 70?  Don’t know, but a preponderance of evidence suggests STIFF resistance from now into January for the USD.

dollar

page_16-12-30_09-47-35

 



11/19/2016 – if you want to follow the Dollar posts, just search dollar on the top right area of the blog.  the overall thesis, which has proven to be correct so far, was the dollar was going to strengthen all the way from the low 70’s.  it’s been a nice run …

is there higher to go … yes.

but then …

here’s the picture – note, I’ve used the high from the Plaza Accord in 1985 to put the .382 retracement on the chart. That also overlaps w/ some nice other extension and retracement ratios.  Believe the highlighted area in/around 107-108 is going to be key.

also, note the TIME component between the last major rally from 1992-2001.  Next month, or, depending on how you draw the time component, perhaps January the Dollar Index should run into some pretty stiff resistance in TIME.

last thing is the Elliott Wave count … I always tell people – I LOVE Elliott wave – when it works.  here, the count has been pretty much a “Ray Charles count” on a long term basis.  I’ll try to walk you thru the importance:

  • market corrects in 3 waves labeled a-b-c
  • the market moves impulsively in 5 waves
    • wave 2 can’t overlap the beginning of wave 1
    • wave 3 can’t be the shortest
    • wave 4 can’t overlap the beginning of wave 1
  • if you take the low in 2008 and start working your way up we see that we are ‘clearly’ creating 3 waves into yesterdays price action.
    • here’s where it gets tricky .. simply, I don’t know if this an a-b-c big corrective move OR we are impulsively going higher in a 1-2-3-4-5 sequence.
    • the key here – wave c (of a-b-c) always has to be 5 waves (unless in a triangle)
      • so if you look you can see the ‘small’ 1,2,3,4,5 being carved out (Turkey reference) so the blue highlighted area 107-108 COULD be the end of a C wave and the entire A-B-C move OR the end of wave 3 and we correct 4 and then off we go again in 5.

I honestly have no idea …. 

Here’s what the charts are SHOWING US:

  • square root target
  • the ‘time’ of the last corrective move
  • the ‘count’ showing we are in the 5th wave of C and 3
  • EXTREME sentiment for a strong dollar
  • the .382 from the all time high
  • divergence set up on Monthly RSI
  • ‘other’ extension and retracement targets

Expect some major resistance .. again, we are 6 handles away from the target area and that represents HUGE moves in currency .. BUT remember, right now, we are at extreme (not historic) but extreme sentiment and this has never proven to be wrong from a contrarian indicator. This puppy could snap back on you really really quick.

only TIME will tell … let me know if you have any questions.

B

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Mastercard 5 waves up complete? an UPDATE

04/29/2017 – the levels shown in the post below held but created a 6-8 month triangle which exploded higher. Triangles are terminal from where they explode (higher or lower) but this stock is really strong. Do I think we are still in a 5th wave – YES.  But, I would keep rolling w/ this until the lower purple trend line is broken on a weekly close …this is a VERY powerful stock.

thanks for asking .. I did this post for a colleague but more importantly a trusted friend.

B

__________________________________________________________________________________

MasterCard – what a great business model. you swipe the card and they get paid ..nice.

that being said, sure looks like 5 waves complete w/ monster bearish divergence.  note the blue median line.  price has not closed below that on a monthly basis, if we do get that close, then this could accelerate to the downside.

also, thru some geometry on there … when using arcs, the 3 o’clock position is a time component and the top of the circle is price.  see how the “time” component nailed the low?  that gives you a heads up that the price (top of the circle) should be stiff resistance.

B

 

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$WFM …man took a while but it popped …

04/29/2017 – consolidated for a long time and finally popped. a MONTHLY close above the first gap top (40) should seek higher.

also, look at daily – lots of gaps in play …

 

___________________________________________________________________________________

07/24/2016 – appears to be building an ice base to attack daily gap resistance levels and perhaps roll into higher levels.  a daily/weekly close back below 28 signals a failed pattern and this analysis is wrong.

here was another update: https://bartscharts.com/2015/11/04/wfm-update/

hope this helps my life long friend … see you in San Diego dude!

Bart

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I enjoy listening to JC Parets (@allstarcharts) (www.allstarcharts.com ) as he’s entertaining as hell and also knows his stuff. I blame him for getting me blogging and haven’t looked back since …he’s introduced me to blogging, google hang out, twitter and now periscope.  today, was doing some emails and “periscope” popped up that he was cruising the charts so I simply hit the app and was immediately logged onto his computer screen where he was pushing some charts around.

one of the charts – Whole Foods.  Besides something about overhead supply, divergence, moving averages and stuff like that I called up the chart on a monthly and saw a PERFECT BUY PATTERN.

  • note the blue arrows – projects into 27.94
    • but more importantly, note that they are equal in PRICE and TIME right in/around here.
  • note the extensions (sitting on the 1.27 extension right now)
    • 1.4142 extension hits right on the .618 retrace (that’s good) at 27.16-27.21
  • last, look at the dashed orange line .. it’s a measured move which represents the largest corrective move since the all times lows in the early 1990’s

So, sure looks like it “should not” go thru 27 so it presents a nice risk reward.

Page_15-11-03_16-02-12

how about some math?

  • (square root 65.58-2)^2 = 37.18
  • (square root 65.58-4)^2 = 16.79 (right on the .786)
  • (square root 65.58-3)^2 = 25.99

so, we have a LOT of thrust coming into this level but a lot of math is coming into play in/around 26-27.

thanks JC!

Bart

STOXX Banks for a friend overseas …

the KEY here is are we finishing a triangle and this latest leg up represents the final sequence (e) of a,b,c,d,e … the relationship that is giving me a ‘hint’ that this might be the case is the fact that the e is representing .618 of b-c (a common relationship in triangles)  on the charts, that is the green line w/ .618 to the right of the green line.

also the ratio of SOXX banks / US Banks is presented. just because a sector might outperform on a relative strength basis does not mean it will go UP because it’s outperforming.  in this case, it could mean it goes down slower … or, this move up is complete and US banks to outperform.  however, because of the long term downtrend in STRENGTH of STOXX vs US Banks would monitor this closely.   A continued increase and movement in STOXX vs US Banks ALONG with a consolidation or a breakout of the blue shaded box shown on STOXX Banks charts could mean important and noteable strength has developed.  Monitor the ratio for clues ..

Hope this helps and thanks for asking and visiting the site .. let me know if you have any questions.

Bart

 

the march to 6200 continues … an important UPDATE 04/28/2017 @seeitmarket

04/28/2017 – an update w/ the gang @seeitmarket

https://www.seeitmarket.com/nasdaq-composite-nearing-major-price-target-16812/

_________________________________________________________________

03/21/2017 – update

if you look at the chart below … you’ll see the blue arrow measured move from the 2002-2007 hit pretty much spot on ….

I add this to the “march” to 6200 because, well, I still think that is the target.

as for my followers – YOU know that I hate to give you the ‘could have’ and ‘would have’ and ‘should have’ w/ technical analysis …I have been pretty busy over the past month.  So, I hastily sent this to a few friends around the banking index in a moment of free time….. the reason I’m showing this is two fold:

  • PATTERNS are all PROBABILITY ….
  • the BANKS lead us UP and they lead us down …
  • I really really don’t want to show anyone the world of ‘could of’ and ‘would of’ and ‘should of’ … but do want to give some heads up ..
  • just trying to help folks …

The “greatest gift is gold ” U2 ….

Use a stop.

Good night …

B




 

________________________________________________________

perhaps 5866 stops it but folks .. we have a perfect sell PATTERN at/around 6200 ish.

also, note the to cycle that got DESTROYED .. this puppy has some more juice.

short term – 3-5 pullback for a couple months then higher to tag the upper target?

anyway – here’s the picture … UP UP and AWAY.

just buy, the market will NEVER GO DOWN and IT ALWAYS GOES UP!  🙂

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