Featured

NFLX

I have done another 4-5 charts on NFLX w/ varying counts and corrections – the problem (and this is what sucks about Elliott) is they all “might” be right … but, they are CORRECTIONS in an ongoing BULL market so I’m going to just leave this stair step chart up and then leave the rest of the charts off the blog for now … believe we won’t miss out (FOMO) but we need another week or so to see where this puppy is going …

Featured

COST Costco

$COST is strong but might have run out of ‘time’ but as long as we keep above the LOG trend lines then the band plays on …

some significant relative strength shown by COST and, relatively speaking, guess people need their TP and bulk during the COVID. who knows …hard to get an accurate projection because it really hasn’t done a big correction – ever- to do a projection. some stuff to consider … 1/ it certainly looks like its going or gone parabolic. did a quick 3rd grade geometry trick and took 3 points to create a circle … COST has honored it, thus far so we can see that the high came right in ‘time’ of the arc. that could spell weakness in the coming days/weeks. 2/from the all time low in 1987 we have a very well defined LOG trend line and it’s NEVER been taken out so as along as we stay (weekly / monthly close above) those two read trend lines then the band should play on ….3/ the ratio of COST/NYA is showing the strength and we do see some resistance now and ahead …

note: I honestly never try to “curve fit” anything, I just picked the three points to create the arc and just did it … the fact that it appears price and time are holding to the arc doesn’t surprise me as I have 1000’s of hours on the charts and sometimes just see it .. looks like a fit, so let’s just go w/ it ok?

this stock, COST, is one of the more bullish sets of charts I’ve seen out there ….

Featured

BIDU

expanded flat correction ID’d. suggests some more up and down into the lower BUY zone in the coming days weeks

couple years ago ID’d a 5 wave sequence that was completing and then the triangle (which now appears to have been part of the ongoing correction in the B-wave) and now see this entire move since “5” ended as an expanded flat correction where “B” goes above “A” and then “C” takes a big old plunge … if (the big IF) my count is correct in ID’ing and expanded flat correction, then it looks like we have a little more up and downs before we go lower into the buy zone. right now, it’s a pretty big BUY zone w/ almost 20 points between the low and the high portion of the zone. will tighten the range once we have another week or so action …

here’s the blog post from a couple years ago: https://bartscharts.com/2017/02/14/bidu-follow-up-2132017/

Featured

Gold / Oil

little higher for a very important target on the ratio of Gold/Oil

one of my readers asked me a question on Gold/Oil ratio. below I have charted SPOT gold / futures oil (continuous contract) – wow, pretty amazing move … take a look at the 1.618 projection target a little higher. that ‘should’ (operative word) cause some resistance. additionally, if we keep this parabolic rise in the ratio then the 12 level on oil doesn’t seem to far fetched, does it? thanks again Ray for the ping … great question and observation. that’s what I see .. hope it helps. Bart

Featured

the importance of 28.48

make sure you keep 28.48 key level/node in your toolbox as the volatility continues to run its course …

I’ve been using the all time low on the DJIA in 08/08/1896 – 28.48 as a KEY node responsible for major support and resistance. as you can see in the chart below, it’s been present at the 1987 crash low, 2002 low, 2009 low and most recently the crash low in 2020. also, if we take that all time low and use the high in 2007 as our AB leg then 1.618*AB = all time high on DJIA.

certainly smells like one more leg down to complete a 5 wave sequence. I’ll be watching for the same percentage decline as 2007-2009 or one of the retracement levels that can be derived from 28.48.

for now, w/ so much crazy volatility be aware where these key levels are going to be going forward and, please, make sure you use 28.48.

Featured

Crude, Chevron (CVX) and Exxon (XOM)

one more wave of selling appears to complete 5 wave sequences across the board …

net-net appears that this bounce will be followed by another wave of selling .. then, some VERY nice targets appear. would maintain patience until lower targets are hit for a LONG opportunity

Featured

XLP/NYSE Index ratio – BUY

this ratio xlp/nya is a GREAT guidepost .. buy pattern complete. if it holds and starts back up expect selling to being again .. KEY LEVEL

for those who follow this blog – remember – it’s all about PATTERNS and I try (operative word) to remove any subjective analysis from the mix. PATTERNS work and sometimes they don’t …

additionally, you’ll see here – https://bartscharts.com/2020/03/23/xlp-nya-ratio/ that the XLP/NYSE Index ratio has been a good guidepost for BIG inflections UP and DOWN for the equity market.

today, at the low on the ratio, we completed a BUY PATTERN. we do have a little lower for other targets to get hit but, essentially, we have a BUY PATTERN complete and, if it works (operative saying), THEN the selling should resume …

if it fails, which it certainly could, then this is a very bullish development and the rally will continue .. patterns like this, when they fail, are usually face rippers so time to hold on and see which way the market Gods would like to go …

Featured

Banks – at support zone

CRUCIAL support level for the banks!

here’s the last post on the Banks: https://bartscharts.com/2018/12/26/very-important-level-on-the-banks/

note, we are pretty much at the important support zone … can go down into 53 and still have a support zone alive. remember banks lead us down and lead us up .. support here and a bounce should relieve pressure on our equities.

Featured

XLP/NYA ratio …

ratio slowing it’s advance .. pay attention for “trade” like support …

we have a pretty big ‘wick’ up at the all time high on the ratio and closed w/ a doji today at the level that’s basically equal to the close on Friday. Basically, even though we were down 500+ the ‘fear’ subsided w/regards to the Staples/NYA ratio. this lack of follow thru is telling .. is the low in place, yet. I HAVE NO IDEA but I do trust this ratio .. until we CLOSE ABOVE the blue rectangle area on a WEEKLY basis I’ll move to a neutral stance in the equity market for now … trading bounce (not necessarily a long term investment buy) appears to be working into the vernacular …

Featured

HYG – BUY pattern approaching / here

HYG at a crucial level … KEY

HYG is getting thumped. as people who are just starting to read my blog or are long time followers you recognize that, for me, it’s all about patterns. period.

don’t try to use any fundamentals (don’t understand them and not smart enough to …) and just try to find patterns. I love patterns … why? because, they give you a really good set of benchmarks or maps of where you are … when they work, you know where you are and, conversely, when they don’t you also know where you are …HYG is so important to the global financial structure.

i’m up early doing some blogging on the west coast and nothing is going on so I’ll say the 66-69 level is a KEY support level / BUY pattern on HYG. It needs to hold at these levels or things are going to get ugly. (like they aren’t already) buy how did we get 66-69?

P – E – R – PROJECT, EXTEND, RETRACE there are other methods to hone in on this level – square of 9, cycles work, etc. But doing a quick PER gives us a nice level and it’s early this AM so I’ll just leave it at her for now …folks, in the world of patterns it doesn’t get much better than this .. we have 6 ratio’s all coming together in the area highlighted below. trust me that equals a big deal. losing this level and something is definitely a foot at the circle K. that sure is a TON of thrust coming into this level … it does warn of a potential failure of this pattern

PROJECT

Orange: .618 ab=cd and Blue: ab=cd

EXTEND: took three key lows (rectangles) and extended fro those points … 2.236 is square root of 5

RETRACE – there she is, the .786 retrace right in/around the key level

Featured

AAPL

AAPL ‘should’ (operative word) find a support level HERE or a little lower

we all know that AAPL is responsible for a LOT of the point count out there … looking at the XLP/NYSE Index ratio and also the NYSE Index and it’s .382 retracement w/ the measured percentage move of 2000-2003 and the long term log trend line certainly looks like we should find some support HERE and NOW.

if these levels give away, it’s really not a good thing … read that last sentence again … they could very well give away. massive liquidation occurring right now. so … the “levels are the levels” but in this type of environment it’s probably a good thing to wait for a SRC on a weekly basis or something like that …

I’m simply trying (the operative word) to be unbiased and find SUPPORT levels that will stop this insanity. from there we can figure out the type of move (corrective, impulsive, etc.) and make detailed projections .. right now, am using measured moves from weekly/monthlies and then geometry to find the levels.

I am NOT advocating BUYing – just yet.

Bart

Featured

the ratio … what’s it saying

…. ratio has exploded but appears we are running into stiff resistance

if you want to take a peak at what we’ve been doing w/ the XLP / NYSE Index (Staples/overall market) then search for XLP on the site at the top right of the home page …we very clearly saw the ratio bottom and start back up (which means, on a relative strength basis that staples were starting to outperform (negative for equities)) back in late December and January. what is fascinating to me is the STRENGTH and VOLUME of the candles of late. frankly,they are blowing away the candles from the 2007-2009. it sure looks like, from the ‘big boy lens’ (hedge funds, relative value funds, institutions, etc.) that they are moving into the safer names (staples) in a BIG WAY. I trust this ratio because, as you can see, it’s been responsible for guiding the MAJOR tops and bottoms since the XLP ETF was created back in 2000.

per the chart below, we are in uncharted waters … however, note the blue rectangle areas. if we take these areas and then look at the NYSE Index that I just blogged about earlier THEN we could very well see a sustainable bounce (note I did not say end of the dumping) but a bounce … so, pay attention to the level on the NYSE Index and also the blue rectangles below …

Featured

Asian Open – Fed cuts rates to zero and possible mirror image foldback NYSE Index

here’s last weeks post on the Asian Open and the YEN. level worked pretty well and we rallied pretty much all week. the USD vs YEN should stay below the 108.46 level and/or 109.866. if (the big if) this sell signal works then it ‘should’ put pressure on the equities:

even w/ the FED cutting rates take note of the key (intraday sell signal) on the bonds … intraday/15 minute chart. we have higher targets but this is the ‘first’ sell signal from the lows back on 3/13.

here’s the potential mirror image foldback I’m monitoring on the NYSE Index. Pretty symmetrical pattern. note the key trend line … that’s a BIG DEAL.

Featured

Hot knife thru butter …

when I came up w/ the support levels last night I certainly didn’t think we would come down into those levels today. not the least bit BUT we did .. ugh. I watched the levels in between calls as the gap came down into our targeted support zone – actually held for a bit and then pierced the level and closed at the low of the days …

so, we’ll get out our pencil, erase, and come up w/ another level … ultimately, this drill is to define/find key support – look for confirmation that a low is in place and then WAIT for a SELL PATTERN to appear to try and get a short on .. try being the operative word.

below you’ll see the key UPTREND trend line from the all time low back in 1974 and in log scale. in fast moving markets log scale trend lines become key as they really help one capture the emotion and velocity of the moves. note we have not broken a key log trend line so the trend is still up …yes I know that is crazy, but that’s the case, for now. certainly looks as we will test that line in the coming days …

1/note RSI below on a monthly basis – we have broken support that defined support levels for the entire move up from 2009. 2/ we should target the dashed blue or orange RSI support – watch those levels. 3/ note the uptrend line labeled “key trend line” 4/ taking the “biggest” corrections ever we can see that they range from 32,38,59 percent for 87,2000-2002, 2007-2009. we are approaching the 30% decline level and right in/around this area is the .382 retracement from the all time low back in 1974. WE SHOULD FIND SUPPORT IN AROUND HERE ….

note – when using an all time low or high to derive a confluence zone its good to go back in time and use that same point and see if it was important in the past .. it was and therefore, the all time low in 1974 ‘should’ be the node to offer support .. .for now. that’s the second chart.

here’s the chart showing the key node and it’s importance in deriving support and/or BUY levels.

Featured

Targets for support (hope – a strategy)

support here or soon “should” be expected …

Here’s the link to the ‘targets a plenty’ – https://bartscharts.com/2020/01/25/targets-a-plenty/

there are also two other posts which mention the target in Dec and then early January. resistance? yes! contagion selling? no! so, here we go …

if we take a look at the 2007-2009 correction we can find harmonics to it and go into the past (I’ve done it) and then PROJECT those harmonics on future support …that’s all the chart below is … we have some “standard” fibo’s coming in but we do have 2 ratios (that’s always good) and for me the most important point is they all land right on the key retracement points … so, very quickly, let’s watch that 10250-10400 for some nice support!

if we swing down to a daily it “appears” (see above title for hope) that we are in a 5th wave down so we ‘should’ (operative word) see a bounce here-soon. also, I haven’t updated it but am watching it like a hawk – the USD vs JPY has NOT seen new lows and if that maintains support this selling will abate.

take er’ easy – Bart

Featured

TBT – BUY (?) No, I’m not crazy

yes, I know that even thinking of BUYING TBT in this current market is insane BUT I really don’t care … it’s a BUY pattern that works or doesn’t. i did a quick blog on interest rates last week and those targets were SMOKED by the end of the week action but take a look below and then figure out a gameplan.

please see below:

we have a lot going on here:

  • Fundamental Frequency: take a ‘major’ high and low or vice versa and divide them. you now have the ‘fundamental frequency’ to define the move … see the purple dashed lines? those are fundamental frequency targets
  • Square the High: if you take the square root of the all time high you get 17.31 which is basically where we closed
  • Projections
    • the market likes to go ‘down’ around 65% per swing
    • additionally, if look at the foldback point we have the two big blue arrow s equal in their measured moved
  • Volume – MOST VOLUME EVER. capitulation low? Hmmmm

So, let’s don’t be a hero but … let’s see if the low was in place on Friday OR the market goes down a little more (TBT) into the buy zone of 14-15 and then wait for the market to EXPLODE off these levels and then try to get in .. if the market does a dead cat bounce and well, just goes pfffffffff … then stay away.

Featured

03/08/2020 Asian Open Update

the USD vs YEN cross rate is a BIG FX pair to monitor for equity strength and weakness. we had a nice ‘nominal’ 1100 point gap down to the open the DOW futures in Asia and a 20 percent drop in crude. rocking and rolling folks …

as the night progresses, just watch 102.06-103.20 on the USD vs JPY and, a little lower 100.62. We’ve already sliced thru 2 years of support – easily – but do look for these levels to offer a modicum of support over the coming hours/day (s?)

watch the USD vs JPY YEN chart below and these key levels for support of the US equities

Featured

TWLO update 03/05/2020

BUY pattern emerging on Twilio.

can’t believe it’s been roughly a year or so since I blogged about TWLO and used vector math and the Vesica Pisces to generate some targets. I was drawn to the 133-135 level. market went a little higher and since then has been getting beaten up pretty good ..

all that being said, it’s showing one of the ‘nicest’ buy patterns emerging in this chaos right now … and, gulp, it’s still about 30 percent lower to complete the pattern. so, let’s keep this on the radar in around 70-72

Bart

Featured

Interest Rates … the trend is your friend, till it ends

the trend is your friend till it ends …

I really like an email I get once a week from the Visual Capitalist https://www.visualcapitalist.com/ as they visualize some of the most interesting subjects and break these subjects down for the common man (me) to understand.

I’ve been ruminating (my newest word) on the state of bonds, negative yields, sovereign debt and the like and, it just so happens that the Visual Capitalist did an expose on Interest Rates!

I also follow Martin Armstrong of Armstrong Economics and he posted this graph which shows interest rates are at 5000 year lows. so, per the title of this post, we have a 5000 year trend working w/ regard to the ‘trend’ of interest rates. folks, work w/ me, but that’s a trend!

Visual Capitalist has some great graphics, but they only go back 700 years. Still, that’s a pretty big trend, isn’t it?

Here’s Bond Yields since the 1300’s … another trend that is pretty strong, no?

So, just to paint the picture a little more, here’s a global look at outstanding debt. Folks, it stands at a mere 69 Trillion and counting …for comparison sake, 2 decades ago it was “only” 20 Trillion. Right now, IMF estimates, the debt to GDP ratio is 82%. The highest in human history ….

But, the band plays on … right? All time highs in the stock market, a REPO crisis that NOBODY is talking about, Trillions of derivatives out there that nobody can account for (watch $DB please) and the Euro Zone is a mess. Can one imagine what an uptick of just a 1/2 percent in rates does do the payments/load on 70 Trillion?

Not trying to spread doom and gloom as 1/ nobody would believe it and 2/ the world is drunk on buying equities and 3/ it’s just not worth the hassles.

Folks, it is NOT all good.

So what do we do … well, I’ve told multiple people that BUYING rates will go down as one of the greatest investments of our lifetime. But, do I really want to step in front of a 5000 year trend of lower and lower interest rates? Hell no! And, just because we have a trend that has been rolling since before common era (BCE) there will be a day that the trend stops. Maybe it will be in our lifetime.

Additionally, you can make money intraday, daily, weekly or even monthly buy going long rates. in the past, those are simply counter trend bounces of a 1000+ year trend.

Here’s TLT – 149 to 154 looks like STIFF resistance ….

here’s a monthly of short term interest rates, sitting right on a .382 retracement. IF a STRONG MOVE HIGHER THEN .382 should/could hold it

here’s the 10 year rates chart going back to the 1960’s … only thing I want to note is 1/ it’s been STRAIGHT down w/ intermittent ‘bounces’ but 2/ of late, notice we have pretty much – technically – been forming a key support CLIFF (and it is that ) around 1.5% and it’s been trying to base for around 8 years. nothing from a time perspective compared to 5000 years BUT maybe something for us to watch, closely, for a 40 year wave of lower interest rates?

30 year long bond: not approaching new highs and withing striking distance of a nice “long rates” target zone … hmmmm?

one last … Fed Fund Futures. sitting at .382 … what’s the market trying to say about the FED’s next move? Or what are they telling the FED to do because the FED is trapped ….

so, stay tuned and really pay attention to the fixed income market – globally – and the flow of funds.

I’m flat interest rates right now and, honestly, trying to wait (operative word) for a PATTERN to signal to give it a shot (long rates) I have the same ‘feeling’ I did when the USD vs JPY was down around 75-76. I tried (again the operative word) to go LONG the USD at 76 ish and was stopped out 5 times in a row (don’t judge – it is what it is) and found my P&L go to -18% and my first digestion of investor/trader cryptonite – the draw down.

I like the ‘feel’ I have but don’t like the result from last time w/ the JPY so I’ll continue to be patient. but just wanted to share and be real and honest … while it looks like trading/investing isn’t hard (it isn’t) it’s just not easy.

Bart

Featured

Intraday BUY ratio = sell equities

…using ratio analysis we can support risk on/ risk off strategies. in this case we use the Staples ETF (XLP) versus the NYSE Index

here’s an intraday look at the XLP/NYSE Index ratio … 30 minute chart. a near ‘perfect’ BUY PATTERN.

with a buy pattern, that will signify ‘risk off’ for the big guys and therefore a sell equities.

if (the big if) this pattern fails then the likelihood of a continue advance is high …

Featured

USD vs JPY key level ahead

USD vs JPY is a good proxy for volatility and risk on/ risk off – watch the upcoming level closely for a clue

for those that have been following my posts over the days, weeks and years you know that I try (operative word) to look for patterns that allow for risk controlled entries into and out of the market.

I also like to use the classic CMT world of intermarket analysis to look at ‘other’ markets to understand correlations and how they may affect each other from a bull or a bear perspective.

I’m also neither a bull or a bear. I’m a PATTERN dude. period.

Sometimes the patterns work, sometimes they don’t. they allow one to know where they are are wrong … the key to surviving this investment game.

from a correlations perspective, it is widely known that the USD JPY is a good proxy to look at for equity health or sickness. when the JPY strengthens it’s usually a risk off and equities correct and when the USD strengthens its risk on and the bulls run over in the equity market.

in the case below you can see we have a LOT of confirmations that the USD vs JPY has formidable resistance around 60-70 pips higher.

elliott wave, projections, measured moves, and a host of math come into play from 110.50-111. IF this proves as resistance AND the elliott wave count is correct (a BIG IF) then the equities should correct to finish this final ‘c’ leg of a multi year correction from highs on the USD vs JPY. stay tuned and watch this level closely …

in the fx world, 80 pips can get taken out in minutes or grinding in hours … either way, it’s not that far away.

salute – Bart

Featured

EEM – now a SELL pattern complete

last post on the EEM was a nice BUY PATTERN: https://bartscharts.com/2019/08/06/eem-big-buy-pattern/ now, we have a larger (purple shaded regions) SELL PATTERN that hit at the beginning of last week. for now, the EEM should stay below the 46.50 area ….

for those interested in PATTERNS I’m using the colors to show how a complete pattern presents itself via connecting the swings. in this case the ‘first’ pattern was a BUY pattern shown by the ‘light blue’ triangles and then the market rallied from that area into the shaded purple sell pattern area …

Featured

Targets a plenty ….

02/24/2020

UPDATE: well today was a pretty smashing day as “days” go but in the big picture it’s really nothing. but, he fact that the NYSE Index hit the target – from the all time low – so nicely, we do have to be defensive as explained, roughly a month and a half ago …

updating the NYSE Index for potential targets and you can see 11500-12100 ish as the most likely move … that’s roughly 7-20%. yes, I know that is a big range but all I’m doing, for now, is looking at past corrective measured moves and projecting down. as can see by the below chart, the blue and red arrows have been responsible for pretty much EVERY correction for the past 20 years. so, isn’t it a high probability that this is where the market will go? Seriously, take a few minutes from your ADD Social Media frenzy to study the chart below … folks, it’s EXACT. EVERY CORRECTION HAS BEEN EITHER THE RED AND/OR BLUE ARROWS. also, take a peak at the 2007-2009 thump. that correction was harmonic to the blue and red arrows being 2.236 (square root of 5 and one of our ratios) * blue arrow and 2.618 (Fibonacci) * red arrow. hence, all of the corrections have been harmonic. now that being said, we have finished a LOT of 5 wave sequences sooooo this corrective move might go a little deeper than any of us think BUT a pattern will emerge to give us an opportunity to BUY … so just chill out, turn off the news and, well, hang on.

rounding out everything from the previous post:

if you have been following my blog of late, I’ve slowed down posting because I was ‘waiting’ for some targets to be hit … it looked like a high level broadening triangle was at work – WRONG. 🙂 and w/ the recent breakout to the upside I had to erase pretty much all of the major indices and, well, go LONG TERM and look for ‘other’ patterns / targets to come into play … well, they have and did last week.

here’s a look at the long term targets that have been hit or are less than 1% away from being hit. if these charts were intraday or daily charts then I would ‘wait’ for 1% but when, in the case of the DJIA, we are looking at a projection a mere 124 years in the making then I’ll take a percent here or there …

in no particular order …

Dow Jones Industrial Average: the all time low on the DJIA was in 1896 at 28.48. Using that low as A we move the line sector AB into the high of 2007. Mulitplying that by 1.618 to get the 1.618 price projection we get 29415. Looks like that was hit on Friday. also, note the dashed green lines going from the all time low up into the 2007 high. same measured move into the 29415 high.

if we put a 14 period RSI on the chart .. yup, we would have bearish divergence present.

New York Stock Exchange Index: take time to study the notes on the chart. bottom line – multiple confirmations (different techniques) of strong resistance

NASDAQ: 1.618 price projection target hit and closed right on it Friday. Also, note we have an overlapping 1.618 extension target hit …

one last, our target zone for the XLP/NYA ratio was hit … continued strength will show the defensive move into staples by the big boys. watch this ratio closely ….

Featured

Traders Tip – “Hidden” Levels … or Pattern Polarity

the gifts have been unwrapped and food a plenty has been consumed … the rest of the family is watching TV and were about to go walk the beach. rained last night so no surfing .. bacteria blows.

anyway, I’ve received more than a couple emails asking about the different strategies I laid out in my last post around a PATTERN level and how you could work them into your strategies.

in this case, let’s take a look at the chart below – the NASDAQ composite. I remember, quite vividly, blogging about the 6200 level on the NASDAQ. Why? Well, much like our NYSE Index pattern, you can see that the Nazzie had a very nice pattern from the all time low (AB=CD and 1.27 extension) the market didn’t even pause and blew right thru it …but, notice how it came back and touched it and then exploded higher!

that’s our Traders Tip – this level was ‘hidden’ in that it was a pattern that came from the low in 1974 and also the BC extension from 2000-2002. the market WILL come back to these levels and, the highest probability trade is to trade AT THAT LEVEL and go in the direction of the original break of the pattern. in this case, go long at the level.

notice what happens when we use a .618 projection of the AB leg .. in his case .618 AB at 4238. Just like the AB=CD, the market blew thru it and then came back to kiss it and then off it went … there are examples of this everywhere. the longer the time frame to create the pattern-the more important the level.

one last – notice the 1.618 AB = CD at 9315 … per my last post, around 3% higher, you’ll have a KEY level to trade short, tighten stop if long and wait for a monthly signal reversal candle, or do nothing and wait for a signal reversal candle or wait to see if the market blows thru this level and then patiently wait for the market to return to this level to go long …

I respect and honor all religions … so, Happy Festivus and enjoy family friends over the Holidays.

Bart

also, look at this clear as day SELL PATTERN on the Nasdaq / XLP ratio. when the blue boxed level gets hit, then SELL the NASDAQ. If, the 1.618 Nasdaq projection AND the Nasdaq/XLP level are being hit at the same time, your probability of an important level to short increases.

Featured

NYSE Index – 2 percent’ish higher and we have a BIG PATTERN

Folks,

it’s nothing but a pattern .. in this case, from the all time low in 1974 we have AB=CD. You can see the math below …additionally, we have the 1.618 extension w/ in 10 points of this level. The levels are less than 1% away from each other. to add some more fuel to the fire we can easily see the monthly bearish divergence present on the 14 period RSI and then the key trend line that tagged the October of 2007 high and, most recently, the January 2018 high …

now, I want to explain something about PATTERNS. I’m not calling a top or making a call or any of that. folks, it’s simply a pattern. I saw a expanding triangle pattern on the DOW – that failed. when we look at patterns you can play it any number of ways. you can 1/ take profit if long or 2/ tighten your stop and watch for a monthly signal reversal candle or 3/ short at the level w/ a stop according to your risk patterns or wait for a weekly/monthly signal reversal to get short. then again you could 4/ do nothing … or if you want to get long – wait for the level to be breached to the upside and then WAIT and o a pullback it will come back to that old level and then trade against that from the long side …

so you see, it’s just a pattern and, because of the long time frame that has made these patterns (AB=CD and 1.168 extension) it is something we need to pay attention to …

it’s only 2% higher …

have a great Christmas w/ family and friends. if you celebrate something else, celebrate as GREAT as you can.

happy Festivus to the rest of us and be good …

Bart

Featured

Home Depot

quite the run w/ regard to HD.

here you’ll see some projections and extensions (3.142 and 4.236 respectively) showing the ‘why’ behind the current resistance. would watch a weekly close below the red trend lines as a signal that a deep correction is/had unfolded.

as you can see by my count, I’m seeing this as 3 so after this correction it ‘should’ roll to new highs.

Bart

Featured

Utilities

been working out Utilities: https://bartscharts.com/2019/06/08/utilities-again-ugh/

honestly, the strength is palpable and, knowing how much I trust measured moves, was somewhat ‘surprised’ at the lack of respect the Utility sector gave to the ‘math’ and PATTERNS.

so, were at a juncture, again. see the chart below … I did the “how to use what you learned in kindergarten to draw circles and one could make the case that they are not ‘parabolic’ yet.

as you can see, the blue arrows show a symmetrical 3 drives to a top w/ both price and time confluence. reacted a little and then blew right thru it .. failed pattern. now we see a 3 drives and a doomed house pattern … also, did some measured move math and we have the square root of 5 and the square root of 8 present at the high. that’s the math for the resistance ….

a weekly close below the 3rd high in/around 778 is key that we have reached an important high for now.

that being said, this is an important sector to watch for now.

here’s a peak at XLU – ETF for utilities.

Featured

Canopy Growth – BUY pattern complete

last post on Canopy was here: https://bartscharts.com/2019/08/25/canopy-growth/

looks like we have hit the pattern …have some nice timing w/ the ‘square out’ of Venus (H) moving 581 degrees from the high. you see PRICE is TIME is ANGLES and they are interchangeable.

so, from the low we move roughly 58.12 POINTS (price) and Venus from that high moved 581.2 degrees. the other nice ANGLE (angels in the Bible) is the fact that Sun/Venus were at the angle as the high.

anyway, nice pattern here. use a daily close below the .786 as a stop out and a consideration that this puppy failed.

Bart

Featured

S&P 500 futures – update

09/12/2019 – market blew thru the pattern level and is very close to setting new highs in the ES. This represents a failed pattern … if you look we have some numbers coming in right below old high but as far as the VERY NICE sell pattern that was present – it’s cooked.

back to the drawing board to look for ANY pattern out there … no idea which ones work or which ones don’t … it’s all probability folks. going to take a look at my trusty XLP/NYSE or XLP/NASDAQ for a clue.

09/05/2019 – sell pattern complete.

———————————————————-

First off – all over the world – have a great weekend and enjoy family and friends.

second, we have another ‘pure play’ SELL pattern developing that could get tagged in the Asian and European markets (US markets closed on Monday)

this pattern has pretty much all the ingredients that the BUY pattern last Sunday night in Asia was hit.

we have a projection (black dashed arrows), a 1.27 extension (square root of 1.618) and a .786 retracement (1/1.27) all coming together …

also, remember square roots and the inverse of square roots ties in the frequency of a string so that’s where the numbers come from …

As Mr. Tesla said .. “to understand the universe think of terms of vibration.”

Yup – Bart

Here’s from a week ago and our last post before some travel

Here’s the update for this coming week:

Featured

Sunday night … rocking and rolling

as expected, we are rocking and rolling on Sunday night (08/25/2019) – no doubt it’s going to be an interesting day tomorrow.

as you can see, the futures did gap down, but found support perfectly on the BUY pattern at 2811. this level is key to hold overnight and over the coming couple of days ..

additionally, watch 2785-2787 for “other” support …

Featured

Canopy Growth

when looking for a pattern (BUY or SELL) we do 3 things .. project, extend, retrace.

in the case of CGC we have a ‘zone’ of support in/around 16.50-20 to look for a buy pattern.

the projection – in this case the simple one is the blue arrow and we have the classic AB=CD or measured moves of equality …

the extension is 1.27 and it lands on the .707

the retracements are drawn from multiple nodes (lows, all time lows, gaps, etc) and they all come in around our zone. the .707 retracement is a by product of the square root of 2 = 1.4142 and it’s inverse 1/1.4142 = .707. Square root of 2 is a big deal w/ regards to numerology.

when we put all this together we get the zone sighted above .. .additionally, note that back in 2017 (when it was only traded on the Canadian Stock Exchange) the largest correction was roughly 65%. if we take a look at the dashed red lines we see that same corrective move – 65% – is present in/around our pattern level.

I’m ‘bullish’ cannabis in general and this appears to be a nice opportunity to get LONG CGC.

hope you had a good weekend.

Featured

Trendlines

nice little trendline ‘creator’ that Michael Jenkins taught me .. when the markets start rocking and rolling I like to find out what the ‘true’ trend lines are telling us …

in this case, certainly can make the case that Mars Helio trend line has been important – just look at the chart below.

let’s face it folks, the planets put out ENERGY and leave footprints … ever listen to an AM radio during lighting (the crackling is electric/vibration interference) planets are doing the SAME thing.

they are PERFECT in their cyclic nature and the math that governs them …so, IF they put out a vibrational signature on the earth (tides, menstrual cycles, the MOONth or SATURNday, etc.) then certainly we can’t fight the fact that the subconscious of the entire world is converting longitudinal movement of our rock and the planets into number … in fact, isn’t even every hair on your head numbered? (luke 12:7)

so, we simply take a VERY important low (in this case 03/09/2009) and we add a factor that is equal in price and time. in this case TIME is longitudinal movement of a planet.

we are adding 100 degrees of heliocentric movement of Mars and 100 points of price (666+100 = 766) and where they intersect (PRICE AND TIME) we draw a trend line ..

note, this GEOMETRY has pretty much governed the entire move up from 2009 which has been 3,794 days (that number is important, but more on that later)

so, as we CORRECT ( and I do think this is a CORRECTION) we will be looking for Mars and, perhaps, other crucial trend lines to do their work …

Bart

here’s some other geometry to pay attention to … note ‘extending’ the radius arc to the other side of the circle THEN pasting trendline (mars) to it’s location on the circle nabbed the lows … I’ve added the next key trend line to watch for support …

Featured

TBT

09/12/2019 – as discussed below, took my lumps on trying to go long TBT. so am watching it to try another LONG (yes LONG) TBT. note the volume spike and also the 52 ish percent moves down seem to cause bottoms. also, take a look at the 30 year continuous chart … we very well could have a BIG LOW in rates. crazy, I know …

well, got stopped out trying a long TBT a couple weeks ago … the entire world is/was cutting rates and that didn’t work out too well for the home team.

but, you know what, the PATTERNS are suggesting rates are or have bottomed (I know, call me crazy) but w/ (the latest numbers) 13 trillion of bonds out there paying negative yields something will/has to give ..

back to the chart .. note pretty much every decline has been roughly 52% except for one which was 66% (52.45*1.27) and we tagged the polarity of the long term LOG trend line … nice little volume capitulation …hmmm.

also, note the foldback point … if it’s the foldback point then we are at the very beginning of, dare I type this, a big move UP in TBT.

I’m going to be in the prove it to me world and look for 5 waves up on a weekly basis before jumping in again BUT am watching this one closely.

cheers and salute – Bart

Featured

Crude – BUY PATTERN in/around 52-53

like the EEM … big support here. if we lose it, look out below …

note, the 15 minute and 240 minute patterns … it shows the fractal nature of the market and, in this case, we have a pattern (15 minute (orange w/ dashed black outline) w/in a BIGGER 4 hour pattern (light blue)

kind of cool, I guess.

B

Featured

EEM – big BUY pattern

note, we finished a very nice BUY pattern on the EEM yesterday. it was nice in both PRICE and TIME.

it ‘held’ in/around 38’s but is plowing into a pretty big daily gap. additionally, the THRUST into this level was pretty significant. any further weakness below the 38’s is significant for EEM.

also, note .841 level is based on the equal octave scale of music. 1/.841 = 1.1892 or D#.

watch this one closely …

Featured

Semiconductors

the biggest thing that I’m seeing is we are finishing an AB=CD in percentage terms of around 878.48 percent right at the 1.27 extension from the 03/2000 high. throw in a little bit of bearish divergence on the monthly and I’ll surmise we have some stiff resistance coming in from 1684-1856. Note, if (the big if) my count is correct, this is a larger 3 completing so after a corrective / pausing move we should (again the operative word) continue to advance into new highs.

so, for now, I would watch the 1684-1856 zone for resistance. It’s a stretch for the 1.618 extension to happen up in/around 2100 but that could be another potential target on strength.

Featured

monitoring the NYSE Inex

my last two posts concerning the NYSE Index and the relative strength of the index (ratio analysis) are here:

just providing an update as it looks like the NYSE Index is about to start a ‘corrective’ leg down … then, ultimately, I will be looking for the BUY PATTERN lower (will try to update if/when it comes) and then an attack on the long term target that I keep showing …

below is the XLP / NYA (relative strength using ratio analysis) – note it is going UP which means staples (on a relative basis) are out performing the overall market = risk off mindset. so stay cautious until we finish this fifth wave up …

Featured

TLRY – major square out complete/happening (TILRAY)

take note of Tilray (TLRY) and put this one on your radar screens.

we have a big ‘square out’ occurring and this theory is based on the fact that PRICE and TIME are the same thing … so, the theory goes, if we start from a low (in this case) and go up to a high then we have a certain amount of PRICE. (in this case 279 points) so, from that HIGH we convert the PRICE to TIME and we get 279 calendar days and we can also use solar degrees and other ‘stuff’ to look for possible turns ..

so, from the former ATH we have a PRICE and TIME square out and we can also use a technique taught to be my friend Michael Jenkins called the Jenkins true trend line … I won’t go into too much detail but just know that using square roots from price and converting them into TIME produces excellent trend lines …

so, TLRY, might have a bottom in place here and I’ll be looking for 42.13 in the next week or so to give me a clue as to where we are … also, note the log trend line (dashed orange lines) held price all the way down, most recently, price broke above that trendline (bullish?) and did it all around the red trend line that came from the low of the IPO … hmmmmm 😉

Featured

Ford – revisited

have been watching Ford (F) for a while and here’s the work that went into looking for the mid – 7’s to 8’s to hold: https://bartscharts.com/2018/09/09/f-ford-set-up/

from that level, you can see we have had a very nice and orderly advance and, for now, it appears to be in 5 waves.

IF this analysis is correct, we are setting the stage for a multi-month/week advance in ford that ‘should’ take out the 19ish high, at a minimum, and advance well beyond that in the coming months/years.

Basically, this run is just getting started. Look for the 5 waves to finish in around 10-11 and then a pull back – we should buy that.

feel this pattern fails below 7.42.

risk reward = nice.

Ford – look to buy.

Bart

Featured

Silver redux

almost 4 years ago I blogged about the Silver Fractal that was present in the LONG TERM (going back to 1972) Silver futures (continuous contract) chart. here’s the link to the blog: https://bartscharts.com/2014/11/06/the-silver-fractal-you-want-to-study-this-chart/

so where are we now. Pay attention to the bottom formed in the 1990-2000 – it took a decade to consolidate. have not idea if that will occur again but am looking for silver to hold say 12-14 and once Gold finishes the last leg (e) of the a-b-c-d-e triangle then we might get a very nice run in Silver.

I’ve dashed the black box that is ‘looks’ and ‘feels’ like the same fractal that is present right now …note it does squeak out a new low before it rocks and rolls higher. not sure we have anything to do now, but perhaps sometime in June / July the puppy will start to run w/ the bulls.

Featured

Value Line Geometric – updated 08/14/2019

08/14/2019 – a very important BUY PATTERN is appearing on the Value Line Composite (Geometric). Again, it’s all PATTERNS and we don’t know which ones work or which ones will fail … but we can do IF and THEN statements to get an idea of the trend and where are …

in this case we have a PERFECT BUY pattern.

B = .5 XA and C= .786 AB.

D = AB=CD, .618 XA and 1.27 BD

folks, look how the numbers are ALL on top of each other ….also, take a look at the dashed red line which shows pretty much all of the corrections (measured moves) since early 2018. the entire big correction was 2.236*dashed red (square root of 5) and note the dashed red line hits EXACTLY at our PATTERN BUY level of 486-487.

IF we lose this level then the next logical stopping point is 468-470 and/or 461-462. this level represents .618 projection of the big correction, a .841 retracement (musical note) and also the square root target from the 553 high.

What is a reason to be cautious? THRUST .. that’s ugly looking bearish candles of late coming into our pattern level so make the market prove it to you by looking for a signal reversal candle UP …

Expect the market to find support on one of these three levels .. if not, lookout below.

Bart

last time I blogged about the Value Line was here: https://bartscharts.com/2018/03/04/value-line-geometric-index-another-10-to-go-updated-03-04-2018-2/ note the target zone of late. it STILL hasn’t been tagged so those targets are still out there … I’d put this one on your radar as we got REALLY close to tagging the lower end of the target zone and sold off … any rally above the old all time highs should be met w/ caution due to the presence of the long term targets overhead …

this is a great index to watch for the overall health of the market … In basic terms, the Value Line Geometric Index eliminates an illusion created by cap-weighted index components. 

here’s some harmonics using the all time low of 47 and the square of 9

this last leg begins at 152 so I’m going to put that in the center …and I did NOT do this before and then show it .. I’m doing this real time. Just looking to see IF the highs and lows correspond to 45 degree angles on the square of 9 from a PRICE PERSPECTIVE. Since we (at least me) believe that PRICE equals time there is a time component to this puzzle that can also use the square of 9. That’s too much for this blog for now .. but, do yourself a favor and ‘pull’ the middle number UP and then you’ll see a pyramid (yes I’m making reference to the GREAT PYRAMID in a blog about the Value Line) I wonder if the ancient Egyptians tracked planets and seasons and TIME via these same 45 degree increments? Perhaps? Perhaps not …there’s some other neat stuff to do w/ the square of nine based on ‘other’ numbers that are ‘interesting’ or ‘important’ for certain dates or angles. Study ‘cycles’ and you’ll see.

either way, I see some major resistance HERE or a little higher in the Value Line.

Just a pattern dude so don’t try to confuse me w/ all the smart fundamental stuff. It makes my head explode.

GN – Bart

Featured

update for the JPM geometry

blogged about JPM a while ago: https://bartscharts.com/2018/08/30/jpm-and-tops-of-circles/ saw a bunch of geometry coming in around 120 and, thus far the geometry has held for almost 1.5 years .. would stay away until this level is exceed on a monthly close above the 120 level … geometry is holding it …

Featured

XLP/NYA ratio analysis – an update

06/09/2019 – back to our old favorite. you know I’ve been watching this one for a while. I was hawking a low in the ratio in mid-2018 but missed it from a time perspective … then, in retrospect, easily saw the measured move and the .786 retrace. I’m human, I missed it. should have been more diligent – especially w/ the time cycles coming in from the 2007 low. the TIME had worked as support before so why not now …? Oh well.

now, we can pretty nicely see 5 waves up and we are in the 5th wave up .. could be a 1 or an A. only TIME will tell. I feel reasonably certain that after a pullback on the ratio (less volatility, higher stocks) there will be another 5 wave move higher if this analysis is correct.

I’ve also included an overlay of the NYSE Index and the XLP/NYA ratio to show the thesis that – by using patterns to ratio analysis we can find potential inflection points. in this case – staples (XLP) represent a risk off mindset (volatility/selling) when they outperform the overall market (the ratio goes up). when the overall market (NYSE Index) outperforms (the ratio goes down) then risk is on and the market volatility should go down and prices go up. Seems to work …

so, 5 waves up from the bottom, 3 wave pullback and 5 waves up … that’s what were looking for, right now. TIME will tell.

Featured

DB Oblivion …redux 03/11/2020

03/11/2020

the epicenter of the Corona Virus is China.

the epicenter of the REPO crisis is DB. DB breaking to new lows is NOT A GOOD THING. ding ding … here comes the REPO train and we DO NOT want to be on it …

you can follow the saga of DB here: https://bartscharts.com//?s=db

what a mess … reminds me of the title to this movie …

Image result for oblivion movie
Featured

GPRO from the top to the bottom

Well, the GPRO saga has been quite the ride. I’ve been posting w/ Andy and the gang @seeitmarket since the high at 98. The long long ride down has completed the final lowest target so from here .. perhaps we’ll see it run higher.

here are the posts over @seeitmarket: https://www.seeitmarket.com/?s=GPRO

or you can just search my site because I tried to link the @seeitmarket to @bartscharts after it was published.

let me know if you have any questions.

Bart

Featured

Global Dow – inflection point update

05/29/2019 UPDATE

note, from our last post in April we correctly ID’d the ‘roughly’ 17-18% move (corrective) up in the GLOBAL DOW and I have annotated “same pattern” to simply show this chart acting like the 2007-2009 period, thus far. the key here is the long term LOG trend line that is coming up from the 2002 lows. would expect, based on the monthly candle forming right now, that it should get tested in the coming weeks. breaking that trend line (MONTHLY close below) would be an ‘other’

as for the US DOW, that’s setting up a totally different and, potentially, bullish pattern so we’ll have to put it all together over the coming weeks.

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

note the AB=CD pattern that completed on the Global Dow.

note the dashed red arrow rally … well, we are pretty much there in regards to price and time.

should be an interesting week …

Bart

Featured

Pay Attention to Palladium and the target that it hit …

Palladium and the NASDAQ have tracked nicely .. watch the upcoming target closely

09/28/2019 – we blogged about this long term target back in March. It was hit on Friday. When we have two 1.618 projections and extensions coming together – it should be a big deal. The other to note is the fact that we have what’s called a “butterfly sell” pattern that hit on the daily and smacked right into the long term targets from 1996. If we get a weekly close below the 1604 ish level, then advise to become defensive. Updated charts below:

———————————————————————————————————————-

would watch the target above, very closely, along w/ the NASDAQ weakness in the coming days/weeks.

Featured

March 20th, 2880 for SPX

March 20th is the Vernal Equinox – first day of Spring (yeah) and from a time perspective is – usually – very important. additionally, we have a new moon/super moon on that date .. my friend and mentor Michael Jenkins taught me that because Vernal Equinox is the start of many ‘time cycle’s we can use numerology to derive potential time and price targets. I know this sounds crazy but as you cans below – it works. 360*8 = 2880. So, on the SPY cash or futures contract in/around that price could be a nice turning point. Knowing this, let’s do some PRICE and TIME conversion. as you can see below when we take 03/20/2019 and SUBTRACT 2880 price we nail the 05/01/2011 high which became a nice 5 wave decline. now, does any of this have to happen – NOPE – not at all. It’s all probability … but, w/in +/- day of 03/20/2019 I’ll be looking for a signal reversal candle to let the market tell me what it wants to do ….either way, enjoy the spring!

Bart

Featured

Transports and F#

Transports at critical level

The last time I posted about the Transports they were finishing measured moves and the target w/ in around 9700-9800. The index blew thru that area after some consolidation and tapped out around 11, 500. We now have a very nice pattern taught to me by Larry Pesavento – the 1-3-5 and it appears that the index is starting back down. There are two interpretations that I’m showing – 1 is very bearish and the other is very bullish. Either way, in the near term, I expect a pullback and if we get a BUY pattern I’ll buy w/ a stop and if we get a SELL pattern I’ll sell w/ a stop. I’m a pattern dude do I’ll just wait and see …

Kind of cool that the price projection from the all time low from the 1930’s was 1.68179 (F#) and we stopped on the .68179 retracement. In the world I live in (you might not, so don’t worry about it or believe) what’s that usually telling me is the ‘index’ is respecting (OK vibrating) to that ratio and it’s inverse …

The bullish case is that we stopped at exactly the same price point as we did every other time since this powerful move began in the early 2000’s …

hope you have had a good weekend.

Bart

Featured

Gold

gold completing a multi year triangle

have been pretty silent about gold as it has gone up and down and up and down again and again … and, most recently, it’s started back down. folks, this is a complicated correction in Gold. And, mind you, its just that – a CORRECTION in a multi year down trend. here’s the thesis – we are the last wave of a contracting triangle which will then cause a very very strong move to the upside .. but, for now, I believe that will end a C wave and the a-b (triangle) – c correction will be over and another leg down in Gold will begin. now, mind you – this is going to all take months or a year or so to complete but it’s the best interpretation that I can think of, for now … so, near term, if your bullish (which I am near term and am already long) get ready to BUY gold once this ‘e’ leg of the a-b-c-d-e triangle is complete.

Featured

IWM

IWM – another leg down to complete corrective sequence?

the last time I blogged by IWM was here: https://bartscharts.com/2018/05/17/iwm-caveat-emptor-and-check-out-where-price-hovered-today-in-my-p-s-below-cool/

we correctly ID a target zone of resistance and am now looking for another wave down sequence that will, if this count is correct, lead to a great BUY opportunity. I’ve outlined my count in the chart below …

Featured

TWILIO (TWLO) and the Vesica Pisces – update 03/17/2018

Twilio geometry points to a potential top

03/17/2018 – I was asked to do an update on $TWLO from a friend and noticed that it has continued to have amazing strength during the sell off a little while ago and during this rally. I also remember doing this intial $TWLO post and thinking, I should show readers/myself the length of the dashed purple price projection .. honestly, I was just too lazy.

Anyway, I went back today and redid the VP and wanted to show the scaling was completely different this time BUT the vectors still came out ‘pretty much’ around the same length …it’s fractal baby. that’s all I can say .. so, I pretty much wanted to show that scaling is ALWAYS an issue but if you do some of the work and the chart shows you it’s respecting’ish the work by support and resistance then go w/ it .. NEVER use the VP as a stand alone technique (I certainly don’t) but use it as affirmation that yes, the market does in fact vibrate and these vectors prove it. at least they do for me …

so, anyway, now you can see the purple vector and then I did some square of nine price and time work (just calendar days), did some patterns (3 drive to a top) and then, yes, (shoot me) I threw a little planet stuff in there looking for similarities in the IPO date and last Friday/Monday … find it interesting as we are approaching the Vernal Equinox, new moon/super moon we have a lot of ‘other’ stuff converging on Twilio ($TWLO)

as always, let me know if you have any questions. I would watch for a weekly SRC to potentially protect profits on this one .. mind you, it has, in the past, gapped up over these targets also. all probability.

Bart

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

My dear friend Larry from http://www.tradingtutor.com.com sent this over so I just fooled around w/ the Bladder of the Fish. The 3 drives looks nice AND the time and price of our vectors sure seems to point at resistance ahead!

Featured

the XLP / NASDAQ ratio complete a BUY pattern …updated 05/19/2019

05/19/2019 as you can see below, the buy zone was defeated by just a bit but, ultimately, it proved to be good support and the ratio is going UP which shows a risk off mindset w/ regards to the institutions. keep an eye on this ratio as it’s very important and can give us a heads up w/ regard to the overall health of the market.

I put the MONTHLY chart in there to show the much bigger pattern that completed at the lows.

02/28/2019 update: well, the target area shown in the original post was shown and held, somewhat. as the bouncing around started to happen from January 22, 2019 till Feb 21, 2019 it certainly created a nice triangle from the classic EWT. a-b-c-d-e and a resumption of the downtrend. We have rallied a little bit after the breakdown from the triangle (they usually occur in 4th waves – a guideline NOT a rule) so we have either finished or have one more sequence lower to finish – what I believe to be a zig-zag like correction.

if this analysis is correct, then we will bottom NOW or a little lower and the ratio will start to rise.

what does that mean? it USUALLY means stocks will start to sell off.

we are at a key/crucial juncture ..charts below

to show you the ‘power’ of this ratio, I’ve updated a 4 hour intraday chart of the xlp/nazzie ratio (candles) and the nazzie INVERTED (blue line) to show the synchronicity and how well they shake and jive together. note: every inflection point is timed almost exactly. THAT IS WHY THIS RATIO IS SO KEY and HELPS WITH RISK CONTROL

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

if you have been following me for a while you will know that I really trust PATTERNS and also ratio’s w/ the patterns.

in this case, we have a near PERFECT BUY pattern on our XLP/NASDAQ ratio. Which means, the Staples (a source of risk off for the institutions) ‘should’ start outperforming the NASDAQ from a relative strength basis which ‘should’ cause the NASDAQ to sell off .. IF and ONLY IF the PATTERN works. As you can see below, we have two levels to watch (the one we are at right now) and then one a little bit lower …

my guess (as I NEVER know which pattern will or won’t work) is that the next sell off will occur ‘here’ or the other target a little lower. if we blow thru them w/ power and they fail then it might be game on again .. but let’s not get too hopeful yet. let’s see what our patterns do on the ratio first …

Bart

BUY pattern on the ratio

note the NASDAQ is inverted (blue line) in this depiction
Featured

very important level on the Banks!

03/18/20 – last time I posed on the banks you can see this level held and then rallied nicely. it never made a new high. now, take a peak below as we can see a nice support zone that has appeared around 53-57. the 1.618 extension is the low of the day today. the ‘low’ might be in …banks lead us up and lead us down. I see this as a ‘bounce’ but one that is needed …

———————————————————

 

Featured

NYSE Index Targets

Well, the support level shown in my last post was defeated on Friday. We also closed ‘below’ old resistance so it looks like ‘polarity’ didn’t work here. All I’m trying to do is find the ‘bounce’ area as cycles suggest into end of January/early Feb.

So, here’s some targets on the NYSE Index that I’ll be targeting over the coming weeks ..

let me know if you have any questions.

Bart

PS – got out in the water today. The swells have been PUMPING of late in SoCal. Good clean living folks, good clean living.

Featured

NASDAQ – huge trend line support being attacked

12/16/2018 – take note of the MONTHLY LOG scale on the NASDAQ Composite.  I’ve outlined 3 critical areas to monitor on the chart.  Also, you’ll see in the second chart that back last March we ID’d the 7600 ish area as the target zone.  The market went another, roughly 5% and then ran into another extension ratio. The square root of 3 or 1.732.  It did a 173.2 percent extension from 2000-2002.  My bust as this fit nicely into an AB=CD projection that was tracking right along w/ the QQQ.  And, I know most everyone was unable to hear back in March someone advising caution … no big deal.  Anyway, some pretty big support from our LOG trendlines are coming in … it certainly looks ‘heavy’ and as you can see from my previous blog about the XLP/NASDAQ it looks like it has some more room to go … the breaking of these LOG trend lines (on a weekly basis – wait for the end of the week) will signal some heavy selling pressure to come in …

Featured

WATCH THE RATIO’s

12/16/2018 – as shown before, the ratio of XLP (Staples) / NASDAQ and the PATTERN that completed gave us fair warning of this correction we find ourselves in .. is it the beginning of the ‘next’ bear market. I have no idea. Is it just the ‘buy the dip’ – I have no idea. I guess if you have 50 years you don’t care but if you have 2 weeks you might.  It’s all relative folks but we do want to find what the best entry/exit points are as we look to manage risk. that’s all I’m trying to do …

the big institutions have a risk on or a risk off mindset. we hear it all the time. ratio’s allow you to try and get a best guess of where they are … in this case the STAPLES / NASDAQ has helped – a ton.

so, where are we now? 

KEY: note the blue arrows. those are the extreme moves up in ‘risk off’ for the institution and then, as shown, the ratio stalls and then the band plays on … believe it or not, we haven’t reached that extreme yet so I simply expect the correction to continue until the ‘target zone 1’ is reached. If your a bull then this seems a logical place to stick your toe int he water else watch and wait for a MONTHLY SIGNAL REVERSAL CANDLE.  Else, we could go all the way up to Target Zone 2.   

Featured

Banks

12/16/2018 – the banks lead us up and they lead us down.  note the polarity shown in/around 84. Also, we have 4 ratios coming in around 79-80.  Then we have the 76 polarity level. my ‘expectation’ is that these levels hold for support on the banks which breathes some life into stocks. 

also, note the RSI.  Yes, we are oversold, but not to the very extreme levels yet so would expect 1/ another push into the dashed red line area and, perhaps, a bullish divergence.  Would be nice to have this happen in the areas shown.

Believe it’s too early to call any bottom or a the size of this ‘top’ for now so hold em’ if you got em.

Bart

Featured

(F) Ford set up – redux

05/18/2018

the zone we were looking at below was hit … any sustained pullback should be bought.  look for increased volume and rotation moving forward.

 

10/21/2018

F has hit the zone for the projections sighted a few weeks ago.  a weekly ‘doji’ has formed but no real bullish divergence.  perhaps continue to wait till 4.86 OR a weekly close above 10.  all that being said, this area is a BIG deal for Ford (F) ….

Bart

Page_18-10-21_10-00-12.png

—————————————————————————————————————————————–

3 AB=CD’s

.618 retracement

Extensions of 1.4142 and 1.1286 (musical note)

looks like $8 cold be big support …

Bart

Ford

Featured

JPM and tops of circles

if you do a search for JPM on this site you’ll see it’s pretty much ‘paused’ at every PATTERN out there but ultimately broke thru and kept going higher w/ strength. Good on em’!

we are again at a PATTERN completing. Top of a circle, 1.618 price projection from the all time low, 2.71828 (natural log (found all over the Great Pyramid OBTW)) extension and some Adams pitch fork trend line stuff ..

so in the world I live in that’s the reason we have stopped in/around the 118 level.

note, when working w/ geometry look at how the market reacted to your work .. the dashed purple circles show how the ‘arc’ was support and when it hit 3 o’clock on the circle it exploded .. this just gives you credence that the arc is being respected.

note on the Adams Pitch fork that the ‘median’ line was responsible for resistance and support along the way up into these levels.

so what’s this all mean?  lot’s of math in/around 118 so resistance is expected. is it a top or the top – I have no idea but I’d be watching carefully …

Bart

Page_18-08-30_15-53-19.png

Featured

One of the most important charts out there … R A T I O P O L A R I T Y

11/20/2018 – so, this ratio is running the show right now.  if you read the below NONE of this should be a surprise as the PATTERNS worked and the XLP/QQQ buy pattern has taken off, causing a risk off mindset and the NAZZIE to get blasted.  That being said, all is not lost. While I do think we have some more carnage to come, ultimately the ratio is going to smack right into a very strong trend line and the technical analysis concept of POLARITY should cause support or THE bottom for a GREAT BUY.  The chart below should give you and idea of why the area labeled ‘resistance’ should offer strong support for the institutions and offer a great BUY of the Q’s and technology.

let me know if you have any questions.

B


 

10/21/2018

note the ratio .. we have a pretty nice bullish engulfing pattern on the ratio which is precursor to potentially further weakness.  If looking to BUY the Q’s would definitely wait for a nice sell pattern or overhead resistance to be hit before stepping in …certainly appears to have some room to run.

Page_18-10-21_20-34-25.png

here’s the QQQ on a daily time frame w/ the target zone denoted. sure looks like another wave of selling should be starting to complete a 5 waves sequence.  Is that A or 1 … if A, then a rally should occur followed by more selling and then a BUY. If 1 then we have, potentially, a lot more downside to come.

I do not know or care which it is ….1 or A.  Just looking for a pattern.

Also, doing a monthly log below to look for key trend line support or breaks.

Page_18-10-21_20-37-20.png

Page_18-10-21_20-41-27.png

===========================================================================

In July, we noticed this pattern completing. Yes, we went 3 points thru but the RATIO held and popped big time today.  Watch the median line shown below on the XLP/QQQ and see if price goes thru the line then the sell off could continue.

Thanks!

Bart

———————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————-

Featured

Oracle Sell Pattern in/around 53-56 updated from December 2014 updated 04/01/2018

04/01/2018 – update to ORCL chart below.  Looks like it wanted to go up and finish the ‘long term’ projection.  we have a monthly signal reversal candle as of Thursday so this one could very well be cooked for now.  Still have the upper area for targets but risk is to the downside.  Now, I have no idea what fundamentally happened to cause such a sell off. What I can say is that almost 4 years ago these NUMBERS and this PATTERN were forecasted to cause a top/resistance. So far, they have.

I have NO IDEA what will happen next .. sometimes they work, sometimes they don’t. (the PATTERNS)  Just manage risk and train your mind that it’s all probability.

Also, the second chart is using some of the musical properties of  this move. As you can see, the .886 and .841 retracement levels nailed the low in 2002.  From here, we can use ‘musical math’ and denote 1/X where x= .841 and .886 respectively.  Those numbers (1.1892 and 1.122) are the ratio’s of notes from the equal octave scale of music. As you can see, they were present at the completion of the ‘basic’ projections.

Lastly, an extremely powerful technique shown to me by my mentor and friend Michael Jenkins (www.stockcyclesforecast.com) shows subdividing the signal reversal or DNA of the low candles and projecting up. As you can see, the first projection didn’t work but the second one nailed the high very nicely.

Again, no idea what’s going to happen from here BUT certainly can make the case for a nice correction to come in ORCL.

Bart

 

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

September 25, 2017 – trust me, back in December 2014 I didn’t have a clue if 53-56 would ever be hit … target area has been hit and I have no earthly idea what the fundamentals are driving this stock or not … watch the MONTHLY close on this one. If we get a MONTHLY SRC, then we could have a pretty big top in ORCL.

Bart


December 2014 – target appearing on ORCL.

ORCL Monthly
ORCL Monthly

Featured

GE for a friend … let me know if you have any questions UPDATE: 03/31/2018

03/31/2017 – I like the .786 level in/around 10.95-11.56.  Note the percentage change from the 2000 high (-64.69%) and how that same percentage change is present now right at the .786 retracement.  We are at 40+ years low on the RSI and some overlapping ratio’s.  It’s do for a very nice bounce.

Page_18-03-31_10-09-20.png

 

12/7/2017 – see below. it’s pretty darn busted up …

Continue reading “GE for a friend … let me know if you have any questions UPDATE: 03/31/2018”

Featured

NASDAQ – heads up, big target hit UPDATE – Island Reversal Present on Daily

03/20/2018 – heads up, sure looks like an island reversal present on the NASDAQ monthly.

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

not only do we have the 1.618 extension from 2000-2002 being hit but we also have a 1.27 AB=CD from the all time low and a 3.618 WX=YZ all being hit today. this ‘should’ be pretty significant resistance.

a word to the wise is sufficient …

Bart

Featured

NVDA

11/03/18 – pretty much a year later and we are, essentially back to the level shown below. While the initial levels shown below did cause a slight pullback the rocketship continued.  Now, we have had a nice retracement that stopped pretty much at the .382 retracement from the all time low.  Over the next couple weeks I would like a correction like the below to form .. from there we’ll know where we are w/ regard to this rocket ship and, probably, the entire market.  Hope the below helps and thanks for asking about NVDA.

also, I do find it pretty amazing that the dashed purple measured move was exactly 1.618 the blue measured move and that is what ultimately stopped this parabolic rise.

Bart

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

11/12/2017 – been almost a year since we looked at NVDA.  Below you’ll see the area ID’d for a correction. This level did hold NVDA at bay and the price stayed here for roughly 6 months and THEN EXPLODED.  It’s going parabolic so at a certain point, it should fall like a rock but for now the beat goes on …

did some basic price techniques that show this area ‘should’ hold it or cause a pullback.  it doesn’t have to but it appears that 1700% moves usually cause consolidations or corrections and, yes, you read that correctly: 1700%.  What a rocket ship.

also, you’ll see what happens in the 3rd chart below what happens when the velocity final runs out of gas … it has to fall back down to earth.

Continue reading “NVDA”

Featured

STOXX Banks for a friend overseas …UPDATE 06/09/2019

——————————————————————————————————————–06/09/2019 – well, from our point labeled ‘e’ it’s been straight down. From an Elliott perspective we are in another wave lower and it sure doesn’t look good for the home team. expect lower prices in the coming weeks, months. this doesn’t look good.

——————————————————————————————————————–

02/28/2019 – well, pattern recognition says you should always BUY or SELL the first AB=CD in an up or down trend. well, the STOXX Banks are almost there w/ regard to an AB=CD sell pattern. So far, the ‘thesis’ around a multi year triangle has worked which means, ultimately, this index will plunge to new lows lower than 20012. Is the next leg down upon us … if the PATTERN works, then yes. If it doesn’t we’ll CTRL-ALT-DEL and look for another pattern. HEADS UP OVER THERE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC!

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

05/29/2018 – well, it is certainly not looking good in Europe and, as I just posted, we could certainly be on the verge of a contagion.

Contagion: the ready transmission or spread as of an idea or emotion from person to person.   “A contagion of fear” is what we are talking about …

So, you can see we have completed a ‘pattern’ in the 112 area BUT the candles are huge coming into this level so … expect this to give way but for right now, this is a very important line in the sand.

Page_18-05-29_08-33-03.png

 

 

—————————————————————————————————————————————

04/03/2018 – well, after roughly a year, the consolidation broke to the downside and as crazy as it seems, the triangle thesis is still a probability which is, to say it lightly, pretty darn bearish. So, would expect polarity come into play and former support becomes resistance. If we get back above that support around 126-127 then we’ll continue to evaluate. For now, that’s the resistance line in the sand where support now becomes resistance. Good grief … let me know if you have any questions.  Man, that took a while to break down!

10/21/2017 – continues to consolidate. at present long term/large triangle thesis is still in play. key level remains 114.18.

*** important development. on the daily chart below a very ‘nice’ BUY pattern is appearing a little lower. IF this PATTERN FAILS THEN perhaps this will cause further weakness in STOXX and start to resolve the consolidation that has been going on for 6 months …

 

————————————————————————————————————————————————————–

08/05/2017 – recent strength appears to want to take out the 139.67 high. However, the key levels still remain as shown below.  A DAILY CLOSE above 144.28 will make me rethink scenario below. Hope this helps …

Bart


 

07/01/2017 – STOXX banks rallied into the target zone to keep the triangle (monthly) thesis alive.  key levels indicated below on STOXX Banks and also the STOXX / US Banking Index. Hawk these levels for strength or weakness.

Be well my friends … Bart

—————————————————————————————————————————————————–

the KEY here is are we finishing a triangle and this latest leg up represents the final sequence (e) of a,b,c,d,e … the relationship that is giving me a ‘hint’ that this might be the case is the fact that the e is representing .618 of b-c (a common relationship in triangles)  on the charts, that is the green line w/ .618 to the right of the green line.

also the ratio of SOXX banks / US Banks is presented. just because a sector might outperform on a relative strength basis does not mean it will go UP because it’s outperforming.  in this case, it could mean it goes down slower … or, this move up is complete and US banks to outperform.  however, because of the long term downtrend in STRENGTH of STOXX vs US Banks would monitor this closely.   A continued increase and movement in STOXX vs US Banks ALONG with a consolidation or a breakout of the blue shaded box shown on STOXX Banks charts could mean important and notable strength has developed.  Monitor the ratio for clues ..

Hope this helps and thanks for asking and visiting the site .. let me know if you have any questions.

Bart

 

Featured

Oracle Sell Pattern in/around 53-56 updated from December 2014 updated 04/01/2018

04/01/2018 – update to ORCL chart below.  Looks like it wanted to go up and finish the ‘long term’ projection.  we have a monthly signal reversal candle as of Thursday so this one could very well be cooked for now.  Still have the upper area for targets but risk is to the downside.  Now, I have no idea what fundamentally happened to cause such a sell off. What I can say is that almost 4 years ago these NUMBERS and this PATTERN were forecasted to cause a top/resistance. So far, they have.

I have NO IDEA what will happen next .. sometimes they work, sometimes they don’t. (the PATTERNS)  Just manage risk and train your mind that it’s all probability.

Also, the second chart is using some of the musical properties of  this move. As you can see, the .886 and .841 retracement levels nailed the low in 2002.  From here, we can use ‘musical math’ and denote 1/X where x= .841 and .886 respectively.  Those numbers (1.1892 and 1.122) are the ratio’s of notes from the equal octave scale of music. As you can see, they were present at the completion of the ‘basic’ projections.

Lastly, an extremely powerful technique shown to me by my mentor and friend Michael Jenkins (www.stockcyclesforecast.com) shows subdividing the signal reversal or DNA of the low candles and projecting up. As you can see, the first projection didn’t work but the second one nailed the high very nicely.

Again, no idea what’s going to happen from here BUT certainly can make the case for a nice correction to come in ORCL.

Bart

 

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

September 25, 2017 – trust me, back in December 2014 I didn’t have a clue if 53-56 would ever be hit … target area has been hit and I have no earthly idea what the fundamentals are driving this stock or not … watch the MONTHLY close on this one. If we get a MONTHLY SRC, then we could have a pretty big top in ORCL.

Bart


December 2014 – target appearing on ORCL.

ORCL Monthly
ORCL Monthly

Featured

Disney (DIS) looks like a high level triangle has formed and now (or soon) ready to move higher …

7/14/2018 – some nice thrust out of the ‘e’ point gives us a higher probability that the triangle thesis is working.  IF correct then expect equal-above 122 to be the initial target for this leg that should go higher.

once prices get above 122 I would be defensive as triangles ‘usually’ occur in a 4th wave so this should be an end of move once we thrust above the old ATH.  I’ve updated the chart w/ a longer term look at a POTENTIAL count on Disney over the comings months/years.

have a great weekend ..

Bart

——————————————————————————————————————————————————

05/16/2018 – with the past couple of days thrust, let’s call the triangle complete and, therefore, over the next couple days/weeks/months expect the ATH of DIS to be taken out …. that being said, triangles tend to occur in 4th waves so a much larger pullback will occur after this run to new ATH.

this analysis is wrong IF we lose low 90’s to the downside for now.

Bart


 

03/17/2017 – well, I just went thru the Disney content below and, amazingly enough, most (if not all) the levels held as support and resistance BUT it appears these levels have formed a big old 30+ month triangle.  Amazing, this puppy topped in August of 2015!

so, the classic triangle is 5 waves labeled a-b-c-d-e.  “Would like to see here or a little lower hold and then start back up for new highs on Disney in the coming months. a close below (on a monthly basis) or lower trendline would make this analysis suspect.

a much more bullish count is potentially shown below.

bottom line is this appears to be a classic triangle w/ 5 waves a-b-c-d-e and ‘should’ move higher upon ‘e’ resolving here or perhaps a little lower

 

09/09/2017 – Disney is getting some attention of late and it’s been a while since I blogged on this American Icon.

Here’s an update:

  • DIS monthly
    • Note, the technique used to find resistance and support w/ the Adam’s pitchfork. When using the pitchfork, sometimes (it’s an art not a science) we take the 3rd point of the pitchfork all the way down (or up) to the low (or high) price forming the geometry. You can see that the pitchfork medium (blue center line) caused the resistance.
    • Now, it certainly looks like Disney (DIS) should go higher after this pullback.  I LOVE it when PATTERNS smack right into Square root targets which are also a square number 9*9 = 81.
      • watch 81 ish as a level of support to begin another leg up on DIS. if we break that second blue line medium fork area then something is really wrong
  • DIS daily
    • note, the market went right up and closed the gap perfectly … it then completed an AB=CD (dashed black line) and has rallied IN A 3 WAVE SEQUENCE … EACH MOVE THUS FAR HAS BEEN 3 WAVES AND, NOTE, THIS CURRENT WAVE IS 3 WAVES (FROM 116 TO 96) … ALL 3 WAVES CAN BE SETTING UP FOR A TRIANGLE (POTENTIALLY) SO THIS AREA HIGHLIGHTED 93-96 WILL TELL US A BUNCH.  If we lose this area to the downside (weekly close below the area w/ thrust perhaps) then we’ll open up the 81 level.

DIS definitely under pressure, next couple days/weeks should resolve where we are …

Have a good weekend, off to paddle board.

B

———————————————————————-

I know, shorting Walt Disney World ($DIS) is probably un-american but just calling it like I see em’ …

Below you’ll find a chart showing the parabolic lift off of $DIS.  Note, the Adams Pitchfork.  I made the lower point equal to the all time low and that provides the geometry for “copy” and then “pasting” the pitchforks on top of each other.  You’ll see the median line tagged the high … pretty cool technique to trade/in around.  Also, take note of 4.236 (1.618^3) right around the top. It’s an old axiom that bull or bear runs “like” to go 4.236of the initial impulse move.  We’ve done that …

Page_15-11-01_10-09-18

next you’ll see the pretty darn big gap that $DIS left as it tagged it’s all time highs and then fell. The blue rectangle is the area still remaining to be potentially be filled.  you can see that it went up on Friday and filled a little bit of the gap, but not all of it.

Page_15-10-31_10-32-51

the next hart you’ll see a very nice “sell” pattern that completed on Friday.

Page_15-10-31_10-40-51

Happy Hunting and thanks for reading …

Bart

Featured

Molly Hatchet and the Bond Complex – flirting with disaster? Update 04/01/2018

04/01/2018 – update

note, the prices bounced nicely off the long term Pitchfork (extended 1.27) and w/ the RSI buried deeply, this ‘bounce’ might surprise some as we work off an extreme oversold (monthly) condition since 1985. I still hold out that we have a MAJOR top in the Bond Complex and this is an opportunity to go long rates (short bonds) in the coming weeks.

this ‘trend line’ is the line in the sand w/ regard to bonds and the rate complex.

Bart

 

02/10/2018 – update.

note: a potential H+S MONTHLY top for the long bond along w/ a crucial adams pitchfork trendline make the area we are at RIGHT NOW crucial for the bond complex moving forward.

is Molly Hatchet – Flirting With Disaster – on the horizon?

R-482701-1348596305-2972.jpeg.jpg

Page_18-02-10_09-26-42.png

here’s the daily chart updated showing target area was hit …

Page_18-02-10_09-41-36.png

____________________________________________________________________________________________

06/20/2017 – tracking SLOWLY up to the desire short zone.  IF (the big IF) we are correct here the next move down is going to be very very strong.  Hold onto your hats.   A hint that the ‘thesis’ is wrong is if we blow thru the highlighted area.  We shouldn’t …

Bart

____________________________________________________________________________________

1/21/2017 – would really like this to start back up again into the areas highlighted.  could be the trade of the year …

page_17-01-21_09-51-43



sent to this to Andy and the gang over the weekend …let me know if you have any questions.

Bart

https://www.seeitmarket.com/tlt-update-long-duration-treasury-bonds-deeply-oversold-16360/

Featured

ABX is the next move higher upon us? Take a look

10/21/2018

as you can see below, we thought the 11-12 wave promising but the form, proportion and balance hinted of one more lower … that proved to be the case and the 9’s held. I’ve included another nice timing tool.  sometimes – you have to play w/ it  as nothing is perfect – you put the radius vector underneath the high instead of using the low to high vector.  where the circle lands at the 3 o’clock position AND a pattern is visible you have a nice time component …

anyway, IF (always the big if) the count is correct this puppy could roll into the high 20’s and shoot for 28 believe it or not.

look to buy the first pullback …

Bart

Page_18-10-21_09-47-30.png

 

07/21/2018

Note, ABX completed a nice buy pattern at 11.10.  the 11-12 area is promising BUT wave counts could have 1 more move lower into the mid 9’s . either way, believe the next larger move is higher for ABX.  if you look at the charts below, you’ll see the ‘reason’ for the low in the 6’s.

keep this one on your radar screen.

Bart

 


 

04/11/2016 update: ABX gap up today was impressive. this puppy is on a tear ever since it closed at the low of 6.18. HA … pretty cool.

Page_16-04-11_20-24-08



 

 

 

Page_16-02-19_17-00-02

going back in time, here was the set-up.

$ABX - NOTE the bullish divergence 2 years in the making
$ABX – NOTE the bullish divergence 2 years in the making

So, again, PATTERNS fail and PATTERNS work and it’s all about managing the risk.  NOTE – it went below the “actual” pattern by 60 cents or so but “ultimately” close right at 6.18 (.618)  It’s a Friday and, frankly, I’m too tired to figure out “why” it stopped where it did … but, trust me, there is a reason.

have a good weekend …

B

PS — note, looks like a we are in a 3rd of a 3rd so a pullback “could be coming … believe 18-20 dollars is a very nice target to shoot for.  Will watch over the coming weeks.