(F) Ford set up

10/21/2018

F has hit the zone for the projections sighted a few weeks ago.  a weekly ‘doji’ has formed but no real bullish divergence.  perhaps continue to wait till 4.86 OR a weekly close above 10.  all that being said, this area is a BIG deal for Ford (F) ….

Bart

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3 AB=CD’s

.618 retracement

Extensions of 1.4142 and 1.1286 (musical note)

looks like $8 cold be big support …

Bart

Ford

JPM and tops of circles

if you do a search for JPM on this site you’ll see it’s pretty much ‘paused’ at every PATTERN out there but ultimately broke thru and kept going higher w/ strength. Good on em’!

we are again at a PATTERN completing. Top of a circle, 1.618 price projection from the all time low, 2.71828 (natural log (found all over the Great Pyramid OBTW)) extension and some Adams pitch fork trend line stuff ..

so in the world I live in that’s the reason we have stopped in/around the 118 level.

note, when working w/ geometry look at how the market reacted to your work .. the dashed purple circles show how the ‘arc’ was support and when it hit 3 o’clock on the circle it exploded .. this just gives you credence that the arc is being respected.

note on the Adams Pitch fork that the ‘median’ line was responsible for resistance and support along the way up into these levels.

so what’s this all mean?  lot’s of math in/around 118 so resistance is expected. is it a top or the top – I have no idea but I’d be watching carefully …

Bart

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One of the most important charts out there … R A T I O P O L A R I T Y

11/20/2018 – so, this ratio is running the show right now.  if you read the below NONE of this should be a surprise as the PATTERNS worked and the XLP/QQQ buy pattern has taken off, causing a risk off mindset and the NAZZIE to get blasted.  That being said, all is not lost. While I do think we have some more carnage to come, ultimately the ratio is going to smack right into a very strong trend line and the technical analysis concept of POLARITY should cause support or THE bottom for a GREAT BUY.  The chart below should give you and idea of why the area labeled ‘resistance’ should offer strong support for the institutions and offer a great BUY of the Q’s and technology.

let me know if you have any questions.

B


 

10/21/2018

note the ratio .. we have a pretty nice bullish engulfing pattern on the ratio which is precursor to potentially further weakness.  If looking to BUY the Q’s would definitely wait for a nice sell pattern or overhead resistance to be hit before stepping in …certainly appears to have some room to run.

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here’s the QQQ on a daily time frame w/ the target zone denoted. sure looks like another wave of selling should be starting to complete a 5 waves sequence.  Is that A or 1 … if A, then a rally should occur followed by more selling and then a BUY. If 1 then we have, potentially, a lot more downside to come.

I do not know or care which it is ….1 or A.  Just looking for a pattern.

Also, doing a monthly log below to look for key trend line support or breaks.

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In July, we noticed this pattern completing. Yes, we went 3 points thru but the RATIO held and popped big time today.  Watch the median line shown below on the XLP/QQQ and see if price goes thru the line then the sell off could continue.

Thanks!

Bart

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Oracle Sell Pattern in/around 53-56 updated from December 2014 updated 04/01/2018

04/01/2018 – update to ORCL chart below.  Looks like it wanted to go up and finish the ‘long term’ projection.  we have a monthly signal reversal candle as of Thursday so this one could very well be cooked for now.  Still have the upper area for targets but risk is to the downside.  Now, I have no idea what fundamentally happened to cause such a sell off. What I can say is that almost 4 years ago these NUMBERS and this PATTERN were forecasted to cause a top/resistance. So far, they have.

I have NO IDEA what will happen next .. sometimes they work, sometimes they don’t. (the PATTERNS)  Just manage risk and train your mind that it’s all probability.

Also, the second chart is using some of the musical properties of  this move. As you can see, the .886 and .841 retracement levels nailed the low in 2002.  From here, we can use ‘musical math’ and denote 1/X where x= .841 and .886 respectively.  Those numbers (1.1892 and 1.122) are the ratio’s of notes from the equal octave scale of music. As you can see, they were present at the completion of the ‘basic’ projections.

Lastly, an extremely powerful technique shown to me by my mentor and friend Michael Jenkins (www.stockcyclesforecast.com) shows subdividing the signal reversal or DNA of the low candles and projecting up. As you can see, the first projection didn’t work but the second one nailed the high very nicely.

Again, no idea what’s going to happen from here BUT certainly can make the case for a nice correction to come in ORCL.

Bart

 

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September 25, 2017 – trust me, back in December 2014 I didn’t have a clue if 53-56 would ever be hit … target area has been hit and I have no earthly idea what the fundamentals are driving this stock or not … watch the MONTHLY close on this one. If we get a MONTHLY SRC, then we could have a pretty big top in ORCL.

Bart


December 2014 – target appearing on ORCL.

ORCL Monthly

ORCL Monthly

GE for a friend … let me know if you have any questions UPDATE: 03/31/2018

03/31/2017 – I like the .786 level in/around 10.95-11.56.  Note the percentage change from the 2000 high (-64.69%) and how that same percentage change is present now right at the .786 retracement.  We are at 40+ years low on the RSI and some overlapping ratio’s.  It’s do for a very nice bounce.

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12/7/2017 – see below. it’s pretty darn busted up …

Read More

NASDAQ – heads up, big target hit UPDATE – Island Reversal Present on Daily

03/20/2018 – heads up, sure looks like an island reversal present on the NASDAQ monthly.

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not only do we have the 1.618 extension from 2000-2002 being hit but we also have a 1.27 AB=CD from the all time low and a 3.618 WX=YZ all being hit today. this ‘should’ be pretty significant resistance.

a word to the wise is sufficient …

Bart

Value Line (Geometric) Index – another 10% to go? Updated 03/04/2018

target above is still out there … certainly appears feasible to go up and tag it ….604-614 is the zone.

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NVDA

11/03/18 – pretty much a year later and we are, essentially back to the level shown below. While the initial levels shown below did cause a slight pullback the rocketship continued.  Now, we have had a nice retracement that stopped pretty much at the .382 retracement from the all time low.  Over the next couple weeks I would like a correction like the below to form .. from there we’ll know where we are w/ regard to this rocket ship and, probably, the entire market.  Hope the below helps and thanks for asking about NVDA.

also, I do find it pretty amazing that the dashed purple measured move was exactly 1.618 the blue measured move and that is what ultimately stopped this parabolic rise.

Bart

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11/12/2017 – been almost a year since we looked at NVDA.  Below you’ll see the area ID’d for a correction. This level did hold NVDA at bay and the price stayed here for roughly 6 months and THEN EXPLODED.  It’s going parabolic so at a certain point, it should fall like a rock but for now the beat goes on …

did some basic price techniques that show this area ‘should’ hold it or cause a pullback.  it doesn’t have to but it appears that 1700% moves usually cause consolidations or corrections and, yes, you read that correctly: 1700%.  What a rocket ship.

also, you’ll see what happens in the 3rd chart below what happens when the velocity final runs out of gas … it has to fall back down to earth.

Read More

STOXX Banks for a friend overseas …UPDATE 05/29/2018

05/29/2018 – well, it is certainly not looking good in Europe and, as I just posted, we could certainly be on the verge of a contagion.

Contagion: the ready transmission or spread as of an idea or emotion from person to person.   “A contagion of fear” is what we are talking about …

So, you can see we have completed a ‘pattern’ in the 112 area BUT the candles are huge coming into this level so … expect this to give way but for right now, this is a very important line in the sand.

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04/03/2018 – well, after roughly a year, the consolidation broke to the downside and as crazy as it seems, the triangle thesis is still a probability which is, to say it lightly, pretty darn bearish. So, would expect polarity come into play and former support becomes resistance. If we get back above that support around 126-127 then we’ll continue to evaluate. For now, that’s the resistance line in the sand where support now becomes resistance. Good grief … let me know if you have any questions.  Man, that took a while to break down!

10/21/2017 – continues to consolidate. at present long term/large triangle thesis is still in play. key level remains 114.18.

*** important development. on the daily chart below a very ‘nice’ BUY pattern is appearing a little lower. IF this PATTERN FAILS THEN perhaps this will cause further weakness in STOXX and start to resolve the consolidation that has been going on for 6 months …

 

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08/05/2017 – recent strength appears to want to take out the 139.67 high. However, the key levels still remain as shown below.  A DAILY CLOSE above 144.28 will make me rethink scenario below. Hope this helps …

Bart


 

07/01/2017 – STOXX banks rallied into the target zone to keep the triangle (monthly) thesis alive.  key levels indicated below on STOXX Banks and also the STOXX / US Banking Index. Hawk these levels for strength or weakness.

Be well my friends … Bart

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the KEY here is are we finishing a triangle and this latest leg up represents the final sequence (e) of a,b,c,d,e … the relationship that is giving me a ‘hint’ that this might be the case is the fact that the e is representing .618 of b-c (a common relationship in triangles)  on the charts, that is the green line w/ .618 to the right of the green line.

also the ratio of SOXX banks / US Banks is presented. just because a sector might outperform on a relative strength basis does not mean it will go UP because it’s outperforming.  in this case, it could mean it goes down slower … or, this move up is complete and US banks to outperform.  however, because of the long term downtrend in STRENGTH of STOXX vs US Banks would monitor this closely.   A continued increase and movement in STOXX vs US Banks ALONG with a consolidation or a breakout of the blue shaded box shown on STOXX Banks charts could mean important and notable strength has developed.  Monitor the ratio for clues ..

Hope this helps and thanks for asking and visiting the site .. let me know if you have any questions.

Bart

 

Oracle Sell Pattern in/around 53-56 updated from December 2014 updated 04/01/2018

04/01/2018 – update to ORCL chart below.  Looks like it wanted to go up and finish the ‘long term’ projection.  we have a monthly signal reversal candle as of Thursday so this one could very well be cooked for now.  Still have the upper area for targets but risk is to the downside.  Now, I have no idea what fundamentally happened to cause such a sell off. What I can say is that almost 4 years ago these NUMBERS and this PATTERN were forecasted to cause a top/resistance. So far, they have.

I have NO IDEA what will happen next .. sometimes they work, sometimes they don’t. (the PATTERNS)  Just manage risk and train your mind that it’s all probability.

Also, the second chart is using some of the musical properties of  this move. As you can see, the .886 and .841 retracement levels nailed the low in 2002.  From here, we can use ‘musical math’ and denote 1/X where x= .841 and .886 respectively.  Those numbers (1.1892 and 1.122) are the ratio’s of notes from the equal octave scale of music. As you can see, they were present at the completion of the ‘basic’ projections.

Lastly, an extremely powerful technique shown to me by my mentor and friend Michael Jenkins (www.stockcyclesforecast.com) shows subdividing the signal reversal or DNA of the low candles and projecting up. As you can see, the first projection didn’t work but the second one nailed the high very nicely.

Again, no idea what’s going to happen from here BUT certainly can make the case for a nice correction to come in ORCL.

Bart

 

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September 25, 2017 – trust me, back in December 2014 I didn’t have a clue if 53-56 would ever be hit … target area has been hit and I have no earthly idea what the fundamentals are driving this stock or not … watch the MONTHLY close on this one. If we get a MONTHLY SRC, then we could have a pretty big top in ORCL.

Bart


December 2014 – target appearing on ORCL.

ORCL Monthly

ORCL Monthly

Disney (DIS) looks like a high level triangle has formed and now (or soon) ready to move higher …

7/14/2018 – some nice thrust out of the ‘e’ point gives us a higher probability that the triangle thesis is working.  IF correct then expect equal-above 122 to be the initial target for this leg that should go higher.

once prices get above 122 I would be defensive as triangles ‘usually’ occur in a 4th wave so this should be an end of move once we thrust above the old ATH.  I’ve updated the chart w/ a longer term look at a POTENTIAL count on Disney over the comings months/years.

have a great weekend ..

Bart

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05/16/2018 – with the past couple of days thrust, let’s call the triangle complete and, therefore, over the next couple days/weeks/months expect the ATH of DIS to be taken out …. that being said, triangles tend to occur in 4th waves so a much larger pullback will occur after this run to new ATH.

this analysis is wrong IF we lose low 90’s to the downside for now.

Bart


 

03/17/2017 – well, I just went thru the Disney content below and, amazingly enough, most (if not all) the levels held as support and resistance BUT it appears these levels have formed a big old 30+ month triangle.  Amazing, this puppy topped in August of 2015!

so, the classic triangle is 5 waves labeled a-b-c-d-e.  “Would like to see here or a little lower hold and then start back up for new highs on Disney in the coming months. a close below (on a monthly basis) or lower trendline would make this analysis suspect.

a much more bullish count is potentially shown below.

bottom line is this appears to be a classic triangle w/ 5 waves a-b-c-d-e and ‘should’ move higher upon ‘e’ resolving here or perhaps a little lower

 

09/09/2017 – Disney is getting some attention of late and it’s been a while since I blogged on this American Icon.

Here’s an update:

  • DIS monthly
    • Note, the technique used to find resistance and support w/ the Adam’s pitchfork. When using the pitchfork, sometimes (it’s an art not a science) we take the 3rd point of the pitchfork all the way down (or up) to the low (or high) price forming the geometry. You can see that the pitchfork medium (blue center line) caused the resistance.
    • Now, it certainly looks like Disney (DIS) should go higher after this pullback.  I LOVE it when PATTERNS smack right into Square root targets which are also a square number 9*9 = 81.
      • watch 81 ish as a level of support to begin another leg up on DIS. if we break that second blue line medium fork area then something is really wrong
  • DIS daily
    • note, the market went right up and closed the gap perfectly … it then completed an AB=CD (dashed black line) and has rallied IN A 3 WAVE SEQUENCE … EACH MOVE THUS FAR HAS BEEN 3 WAVES AND, NOTE, THIS CURRENT WAVE IS 3 WAVES (FROM 116 TO 96) … ALL 3 WAVES CAN BE SETTING UP FOR A TRIANGLE (POTENTIALLY) SO THIS AREA HIGHLIGHTED 93-96 WILL TELL US A BUNCH.  If we lose this area to the downside (weekly close below the area w/ thrust perhaps) then we’ll open up the 81 level.

DIS definitely under pressure, next couple days/weeks should resolve where we are …

Have a good weekend, off to paddle board.

B

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I know, shorting Walt Disney World ($DIS) is probably un-american but just calling it like I see em’ …

Below you’ll find a chart showing the parabolic lift off of $DIS.  Note, the Adams Pitchfork.  I made the lower point equal to the all time low and that provides the geometry for “copy” and then “pasting” the pitchforks on top of each other.  You’ll see the median line tagged the high … pretty cool technique to trade/in around.  Also, take note of 4.236 (1.618^3) right around the top. It’s an old axiom that bull or bear runs “like” to go 4.236of the initial impulse move.  We’ve done that …

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next you’ll see the pretty darn big gap that $DIS left as it tagged it’s all time highs and then fell. The blue rectangle is the area still remaining to be potentially be filled.  you can see that it went up on Friday and filled a little bit of the gap, but not all of it.

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the next hart you’ll see a very nice “sell” pattern that completed on Friday.

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Happy Hunting and thanks for reading …

Bart

Molly Hatchet and the Bond Complex – flirting with disaster? Update 04/01/2018

04/01/2018 – update

note, the prices bounced nicely off the long term Pitchfork (extended 1.27) and w/ the RSI buried deeply, this ‘bounce’ might surprise some as we work off an extreme oversold (monthly) condition since 1985. I still hold out that we have a MAJOR top in the Bond Complex and this is an opportunity to go long rates (short bonds) in the coming weeks.

this ‘trend line’ is the line in the sand w/ regard to bonds and the rate complex.

Bart

 

02/10/2018 – update.

note: a potential H+S MONTHLY top for the long bond along w/ a crucial adams pitchfork trendline make the area we are at RIGHT NOW crucial for the bond complex moving forward.

is Molly Hatchet – Flirting With Disaster – on the horizon?

R-482701-1348596305-2972.jpeg.jpg

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here’s the daily chart updated showing target area was hit …

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06/20/2017 – tracking SLOWLY up to the desire short zone.  IF (the big IF) we are correct here the next move down is going to be very very strong.  Hold onto your hats.   A hint that the ‘thesis’ is wrong is if we blow thru the highlighted area.  We shouldn’t …

Bart

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1/21/2017 – would really like this to start back up again into the areas highlighted.  could be the trade of the year …

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sent to this to Andy and the gang over the weekend …let me know if you have any questions.

Bart

TLT Update: Long Duration Treasury Bonds Deeply Oversold

ABX is the next move higher upon us? Take a look

10/21/2018

as you can see below, we thought the 11-12 wave promising but the form, proportion and balance hinted of one more lower … that proved to be the case and the 9’s held. I’ve included another nice timing tool.  sometimes – you have to play w/ it  as nothing is perfect – you put the radius vector underneath the high instead of using the low to high vector.  where the circle lands at the 3 o’clock position AND a pattern is visible you have a nice time component …

anyway, IF (always the big if) the count is correct this puppy could roll into the high 20’s and shoot for 28 believe it or not.

look to buy the first pullback …

Bart

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07/21/2018

Note, ABX completed a nice buy pattern at 11.10.  the 11-12 area is promising BUT wave counts could have 1 more move lower into the mid 9’s . either way, believe the next larger move is higher for ABX.  if you look at the charts below, you’ll see the ‘reason’ for the low in the 6’s.

keep this one on your radar screen.

Bart

 


 

04/11/2016 update: ABX gap up today was impressive. this puppy is on a tear ever since it closed at the low of 6.18. HA … pretty cool.

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going back in time, here was the set-up.

$ABX - NOTE the bullish divergence 2 years in the making

$ABX – NOTE the bullish divergence 2 years in the making

So, again, PATTERNS fail and PATTERNS work and it’s all about managing the risk.  NOTE – it went below the “actual” pattern by 60 cents or so but “ultimately” close right at 6.18 (.618)  It’s a Friday and, frankly, I’m too tired to figure out “why” it stopped where it did … but, trust me, there is a reason.

have a good weekend …

B

PS — note, looks like a we are in a 3rd of a 3rd so a pullback “could be coming … believe 18-20 dollars is a very nice target to shoot for.  Will watch over the coming weeks.

MSFT vs AAPL .. the great rotation

MSFT / AAPL – note, long term LOG scale and it appears that MSFT (from a relative strength perspective) has broken out this month …

now, this does not mean that the MSFT stock won’t go down – it simply means – from a relative strength perspective – it appears that MSFT is the ‘stronger’ of the two.  If you notice, they both reign supreme for about 10 years and then one outperforms the other.

also, note, since 2012 we have been stair stepping our way UP (higher bottoms) culminating in a nice breakout this month … again, these are MONTHLY candles.

will be interesting to see how this plays out …

Bart

Utilities – holding up pretty nicely

11/25/2018 – you can see some of the former work on the Dow Jones Utility Index here: https://bartscharts.com/2018/01/02/i-still-think-this-is-a-big-deal-utilities-an-update-and-another-update/

as you can see, the index went right up into the target area and fell pretty nicely. that being said, it has held up rather nicely and just recently went up and tagged a nice retracement level.  probability is that it should start back down .. but, there’s the deal, look at the stair steps (higher lows) on the index and as I looked at this monthly chart I noticed – there has never been an AB-CD type corrective move.  so, we are setting up for the first one in roughly 40 years.  IF, the big if, we get down as shown by the red arrows on the current price chart THEN we’ll have to give it a shot and buy it ..

it will be the first one in 40+ years.

stay tuned. this strength is interesting …

hope all had a wonderful weekend and great time w/ family and friends if celebrating Thanksgiving!

Bart

Update to BITCOIN (NYSE Index Bitcoin Index)

if you do a search you’ll find some interesting charts on the ‘parabolic’ rise of the BITCOIN Index.  PARABOLIC RISES ALWAYS END LIKE THIS …period.

what’s important to realize is we are balancing the energy of euphoria (a sell signal) w/ depression/capitulation (a buy signal) … so what’s important now. note the triangle is broke down from (it’s supposed to do that) and now we have some projections via percent change and some trendlines (LOG- which are key) and the vaunted .786 retracement.  why not give that  BUY shot … I’m going to be looking at that …

B

IBM – failure and a new set up

11/03/2018 – well our IBM pattern failed and got smoked. As I’ve shown before, the candle on IBM is what a ‘failed pattern’ looks like … so, as you can see below we have another BUY pattern emerging on IBM. It’s got some ‘time’ and ‘price’ to go but I’ll be watching the level shown below as MAJOR support for IBM.

Remember, this is pattern recognition. It’s all probability folks. We NEVER know which one will work or not but we ALWAYS no how much we are wiling to risk and WHERE WE ARE WRONG.  In this crazy game, especially in the current volatile market we find ourselves in isn’t that the name of the game …?

Here’s the chart … next.

Bart

New York Stock Exchange – a BUY pattern emerges UPDATED

11/19/2018 – revisiting this pattern from the end of October. The levels indicated have NOT been hit so, believe it or not, this is ‘standard’ corrective move in the NYSE Index since 2009.  Thus far, every major correction has been the dashed red arrows.

also, we have polarity support area and then we have all  kinds of ratio’s coming together – along w/ a BUNCH of projections. so, this area is VERY important. Remember, if we try to filter out the noise and the trend is your friend until the end then WE HAVE TO BUY this level .. perhaps wait for a Signal Reversal Candle but at a minimum believe this is the most crucial support area in 2018.

again, this level hasn’t even been tested yet, so hold on to your hats and everyone just chill … let me know if you have any questions.

note, another lower level has 3 ratio’s coming in (highlighted red) so if we lose the blue, the red is pretty reasonable area for the next target.

Bart


10/18/2018

I like to draw circles … just work w/ me. how the 1987 low and recent high are connected by geometry

a couple weeks ago I posted this: https://bartscharts.com/2018/08/30/jpm-and-tops-of-circles/

it was some geometric work I did on JPM and ‘real time’ the top of a circle. I do have a theory of ‘why’ this technique works in projecting support or resistance but I’ll leave that to me and some of my friends. it really doesn’t matter – does it?

i’ve been silent on the blog world for a bunch of reasons .. the main reason is a loss that occurred in my family and I really haven’t felt like doing much.  but, the emails have been coming in about the most recent moves.

if you go back and read you’ll find that I was pretty defensive for the entire summer .. did we/me miss some of the last part of these moves – yes but ultimately, the only buy pattern around was ABX and GE.  TBT was also a nice play but the chaos of the euphoria just had me step aside.

so in order to get back into it, I put some Enigma on the Spotify and, specifically, Morphing Thru Time .. pretty ‘trip-in-dicular’ to say the least.

I called up the Dow Jones and could just see the connection between the 1987 low and this most recent high. Tops of circles are cool.

Bart

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