French Election CAC 40 and EWQ

So, big election this weekend .. ZERO IDEA which way it will go or fall.  However, the blue rectangle is the targets for resistance … it’s been coiling since 2000 in a monstrous triangle.  A weekly close above 5582 will send this  puppy higher …or smack into zone shown and fall after election?

believe these are the levels on the CAC 40 are key.

if we look at the EWQ ETF we can see a little bit more clearer picture:

  • note the 5 waves down into the low of 2009.  usually (the operative word) that signifies a corrective set back and then a resumption of the trend that is causing the 5 waves
  • the blue triangles are showing the sell pattern on the EWQ that hit right at the .618 retracement from the high
  • the dashed blue line is a basic trend line connecting the lower highs .. acting as R right now
  • at the 26.99 level we are completing another sell pattern …
  • so, net net, the EWQ PATTERNS are showing lower

no doubt, it will be a crazy night on Sunday .. enjoy the ride.

$NFLX another short swing at the bat? Perhaps? UPDATED 4/22/2017

04/22/2017 – trade what you see, not what you believe. NFLX has been “topping” since January 2017.  shown below are the key gap areas and the looming trend line …but folks, it hasn’t moved lower.  unless we get a weekly close below 133 – step aside.  the ‘math’ stopped it but it sure seems strong to me, for now …



  • basically hit the target zone we were identifying. now it gets interesting as you can see, on the daily, we have many gaps staring from this past summer. if we can break thru the 133-137 level then the gap 100-112 seems like a reasonable target for now.

our assumption is we have completed 5 big waves per the below so … could get interesting? Or, the stock will never go down, right? the market only moves up.



1/12/2017 – well if at first you don’t succeed, try again.  doesn’t matter this its NFLX, in the world I live in, it’s just a ‘chart’ so here we are at it again …

well, the GAP from the former congestion area into new highs was powerful BUT note that we have been selling off since the gap and IF (the big if folks) we close back below the dashed orange trend line AND close the open gap (a gap down back below is ‘technically’ the island reversal THEN guess what things could get going to the downside. so use those levels noted below as your guide.

some key stuff:

  • note the monthly
    • that’s some pretty large bearish divergence
    • also note, from the first move up way back when it ‘perfectly’ hit the 3.142 (PI) projection
    • also note the top trend line … a daily close above that is VERY bullish but right now, banged right into it as resistance
  • note the monthly ‘log’ chart
    • the top trend line held price at bay (that caused the consolidation IMHO) but if we keep going that top trend line would be the next logical target
  • note the daily
    • see the orange dotted trendline … that’s the one to really watch for now
    • I REALLY like that wave 1 up and wave 5 up are equal in PRICE and TIME
    • note how wave 3 gapped rigth up to the AB=CD where wave 1=3 and then ran ….
    • REALLY pay attention to the gap that was left a couple days ago – that’s the one which, if gapped down below will cause the island reversal

perhaps NFLX will kick my butt again … we’ll see.



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if you look thru or have been reading my blog you’ll realize that the patterns do fail .. invariably when this occurs I’ll go back to the drawing board and come up w/ another PATTERN.  check out WYNN … you never know what’s going to happen and the PATTERNS do fail. manage the risk …

$NFLX has beaten me – alot. Uncle ….

that being said, I hit erase all on $NFLX chart and took a fresh look at it … I still see 5 waves up w/ no RULES broken so the count is valid and there’s monthly bearish divergence and we are about to tag the upper long term trend line that is roughly 10 years old.  I still say be careful up here but .. again … UNCLE.

NFLX Monthly

NFLX Monthly

but what’s the next pattern or set of target areas?  No flipping idea …nope, not going to do it.

“f’it dude, let’s go bowling”



Super Size Me … $MCD update …

04/22/2017 – update to MCD.  Log trend line coming in around the high 130’s to low 140’s “should” stop this advance.  hope this helps.

note the measured moves (blue arrows) and note the blue dashed ‘log’ trend line ..

have a good weekend



So, here’s another AMAZING run by a company that really has it down.  Let’s face it – everybody has gone to $MCD every once in a while – hugh?  People buy Burgers man ….

But when I look at this chart I see the “Sir Isaac Newton” parabolic takeoff.  So, starting from scratch were going to have some fun w/ geometry.

Exhibit 1: chart of $MCD


Exhibit 2: what does the LOG scale and RSI look like?


  • the “top to top” trend line looks like it wants to go a little higher – 130 ish?
  • note the “bearish divergence” in that $MCD makes new highs BUT the RSI doesn’t …important.

What about Volume? (are people buying it up here?)


I’m going to chalk it up to …nothing too crazy.  Volume is “good”

Now, EVERYTHING, I “Really Need to Know I learned in Kindergarten”  (I actually mentioned this during my CMT talk at the convention a couple years ago). But, seriously, I want to make mention that what you see below is 1) real time (I didn’t do it and then publish it – it just looks parabolic) and 2) simply based on geometry we learned back in Elementary School.

Let’s take 3 points and figure out how to make a circle ….? OK?

Here’s the end result for $MCD:


Again, if your a first time or new reader of the blog you’ll think “I curved fit this” or “did it first and then published it”.  For those of you who know me – you know I wouldn’t do that.  So, I didn’t …

What is going on here?  Well, do you think, for one moment, that all the circles, squares, triangles, pyramids, etc. were built and created for the heck of it? OR, possibly, they were using these angles and natural order to convey higher, powerful but very simple truths?

If you study this chart, you’ll see that I drew “Gann Angles” (musical angles) from the gravity center and where the lines intersected the circle we had horizontal prices support or resistance and vertical time components.

Anyway, were tapping against the top of THE circle and w/ the bearish divergence present believe it might be time to have “one last” super size and step aside.  WOULD NOT SHORT THIS STOCK UNTIL WE HAVE A MONTHLY/WEEKLY SIGNAL REVERSAL CANDLE.  (the low of the high candle is taken out by a daily, weekly or monthly CLOSE below)





Housing … just keep your head in the sand OR are the clouds forming? 3rd update

04/15/2017 – XHB has continued higher. It hasn’t made new highs but it sure isn’t showing the weakness that the rest of the overall market is showing right now …I’ve also updated ITB. Note, I didn’t have all the data (not sure why) the last time I posted on this one … the high is in/around 50.

I see strong resistance for XHB and ITB in the coming days/weeks .. I also see 900,000 – 1MM dollar houses in San Diego that are standing inventory all over the place… something will figure itself out, I do know that.


1/30/2017 – TON of standing inventory in the 900,000 range for .00004 acres and <2000 sq ft w/ rates rising.  (I know that’s fundamental ‘stuff’ but it helps cast a picture)

a ‘basic’ H+S on the Home-builders sure seems to be building … only ‘TIME’ will tell.  note the ‘time’ symmetry between the L and R shoulders. Kind of cool.

be well, do good.




11/14/2016 – since the Election, the XHB ETF has taken off like a rocket ship.  You can see below that it hit the .618 retracement from the Spring low of 16′.  Upper targets are being shown in around 34-35.

were still working w/ the thesis that the 39 level was the completion of a major sell signal for the homebuilders.  This straight up action of late is something to watch closely for this thesis to hold.

of note, a friend of mine sent me this headline:


the rise in foreclosures last month was the highest since the big crash.  Something to note .. however, the annual rate is still declining.  Is this a divergence forming and a potential inflection point? I don’t know … but price/time will tell us.

Bonds are getting smoked of late causing rates to rise …

For those who have followed me you know that I’m usually ‘first to the party’ and ‘see’ things months if not a year in advance. that’s what patterns tell you … i’m not trying to put any spin on this folks.  We are at ZIRP, I have houses all over the place going into standing inventory status, rates are rising and we just had a ‘big’ increase in foreclosures last month. Remember – almost a year before anyone paid attention to the Chinese Yuan I saw the BIG JUMP and said … this is something to notice.  (

So, that’s all I’m doing again ….

Also, take notice of the big time SELL PATTERN FAILURE  on the Banking Index. Multi-level chess game going on right now … trust the patterns and they will all line up. That I know …

Do well, be good and rock on, always.





I sold my house in VA and moved out to SoCal to rent .. did it for a number of reasons. The NUMBER 1 reason was to learn how to Stand Up Paddle-board Surf and enjoy the weather.  YES, I understand it’s financial suicide out here .. the taxes are crazy, the cost of living is crazy but the surf is good man …

I was SO HAPPY to unload the house … why?  Well, I think we are on the verge of another big old smack down in housing.  Of note, my post from March 2013 (yes, 3+ years ago that the home builders had topped in/around 32 did not come to fruition. In essence the pattern failed .. so, it went up to the .786 and also completed the 1/8th signal reversal candle.  Now, we’ve rallied right back up to the .786 level and are at the demarcation point.


  • this ETF doesn’t want to go below 27.  Big support …
  • also, note the AB-CD projection down to 25.40 – if we crack from here expect support there and if BULLISH this will hold and bring it to new highs. If it fails … watch out below.
  • THOSE are the levels to watch …
  • sure looks like a MONTHLY H&S pattern for this ETF … doesn’t it?

To finish the story about San Diego … I was driving around the other day and noticed TONS of standing inventory …plus the houses were selling for 850K to 1.0 + MM.  Folks, that dog don’t hunt man …

Also, the PATTERNS suggest a MAJOR top in bonds which means higher rates … so, it’s been 3+ years since my last post on home builders.  It’s moved, a little, perhaps it will move more, but man this sure looks like a BIG top is coming in housing ….


Here’s the Home Construction and Home Builders ETF (ITB and EHF)




Again, folks, it’s just PATTERNS. Sometimes they work, sometimes they don’t … but at least we have some guides to support what could (could being the operative word) a BIG OLD THUMP in housing …



had some fun w/ $AMZN over @seeitmarket an Update

04/14/2017 – just a quick update that we are really close or need a little bit more for the SRC to be invoked on AMZN. also, note the shooting star candle present and also the doji like candles that started most corrective moves.

probability lends itself to be cautious and sit on ones hands to assess the next couple weeks of AMZN price action.

as you can see by the chart below a “normal” correction has been around -30 percent ….

have a GREAT weekend w/ family and friends.



04/06/2017 – its been a while but did do an update for Andy and the gang @seeitmarket:

After this post, went and did a peak at the measured moves and compared the last one to musical notes. basically, the measured move extended base on the 12th root of 2 or 1.05946.  the other method I used, taught to me by Michael Jenkins was a simple, yet powerful, projection technique using the “move down” to balance w/ the same move up (the purple arrows).

As one can see, it moved roughly 2 percent past the measured move target and we still do not have a SRC. Since the high candle started this week, we use the LOW of the high monthly candle as the “new” SRC base.  That “new” SRC if looking for the short is 885.

Until we get a monthly or weekly close below 885 I would stay away  from the short side. I relative terms, we are close to 1000 and in this euphoric and unrelenting bull market how cool would it be to hit 1000 / share for AMZN.


Dow Jones Transports – almost parabolic UPDATE to the UPDATED

04/06/2017 – Transports hit the below resistance zone and targets and have since rallied to make new highs. What’s interesting this time is the time symmetry between the peaks in 1999,2008 and now.  Also, note that they seem to always want to go up and make a slight new high before further correcting.

The time component is what has me interesting and cautious on the DJ Transportation Average – for now.

Thanks for reading …




As is usually the case, the transports are getting a lot of attention, now, and rightly so because they do look heavy and are a key ingredient to this incredible ride up.

I don’t know what makes up the transport index.

I don’t care what makes up the index.

I like geometry.


Here’s the updated chart:

Dow Jones Transports UPDATED

Dow Jones Transports UPDATED


September 17, 2014: below you will see some of the continuing work I have done on the transports.  Quite simply, an incredible move …

there are, however, some things we can learn from this from a PATTERN perspective:

  • my “job” as a PATTERN chartist is to do my best to find the patterns and then present them to you, my readers.  (thanks for the following also)  As a PATTERN chartist you are NEVER wrong.  The PATTERN works or it doesn’t it … it has NOTHING to do w/ you.  On long term time frames, well, the patterns are “easier” to construct.  An all time low to a “former” all time high gives you AMAZING projection capabilities. In fact, it is one of our easiest PATTERNS to form – the “zig zag or AB=CD” PATTERN.  Folks this formed on the Transports and got SMOKED … not even a token of resistance.  Wow …
    • when a “zig-zag” or “AB=CD” PATTERN fails it will usually go to 1.27 or 1.618 of the PATTERN.
  • so, what do we have “now”
    • note the all time low of 13.43 was on July 05,1932 a mere 30,024 days ago.
      • using that low and a 1.27 AB=CD we get a target of 9149
    • note, the “old” all time high in 2000 to the 2009 high was a 1.8877 extension (musical note).  sometimes, the PATTERNS repeat the same harmonic. NOPE not today … blew threw it.
    • also, you can see the blue arrow projections and the “minimum” objective of the head and shoulders BULLISH top that formed comes in around 8880

      some other projections shown for the Transports

      some other projections shown for the Transports

Since this move is going PARABOLIC it’s sometimes helpful to bring out the old geometry … this is simply the technique of how to draw a circle from 3 points.  (full disclosure: I have NO IDEA where the GRAVITY CENTER is going to end up.) Note, when using this technique our gravity center is, basically, the zone for the past major top in the Transports.

finding the gravity center

finding the gravity center


now that we have found the gravity center we can get to work ….

  • note, the gravity center (blue horizontal line) is the “reason” for the major tops
  • note from 1994-1999 price “hugs” and rolls right up into the top. that tells us we have a nice gravity center …
  • note also that when we draw, from the gravity center, harmonic trend lines we find the “major reason” for support and resistance …
  • when projecting from a neckline, remember, the depth of the neck is how to project UP (in this case) to project a minimum target. (again, it’s minimum target, NOT the target or though it can be)
gravity center harmonics

gravity center harmonics

CLIFF NOTES: this is an incredibly powerful move.  Some more targets are coming into play as noted above.  when the PATTERN around 7600 failed the vacuum up was to be expected.



June 12, 2014: more than likely, you saw my long term transports post a couple months ago and as this target got attacked I was truly looking for a “little” resistance.  I mean, come on, it was the ALL TIME LOW to the “old” ALL TIME HIGH and we have a 1.618 extension RIGHT ON TOP OF THE LEVEL.  As patterns go .. this was a doozie.  However, as patterns go, it failed.  Folks, it didn’t even put up a fight …

so, I hit “erase all” on the chart and, quite frankly, left it alone.  the joy of patterns and charting …

I went back to it tonight and I still think we have a pattern forming so I went back and said “self, what did it do the last time we surged past an old high and into a new high?  Well, guess what?  It surged thru the 1.618 extension in 2007-2008 an stopped on the 1.8877 extension!  TILT … 1.8877? Well, that is exactly a major seventh ration in the equal octave scale of music. So .. perhaps it did that again?  Please see below …we smacked into the minor and, quite frankly, the major is still out there.  However — this sure looks like a MONTHLY 3 DRIVES TO A TOP pattern.

Keep the mindset (defensive) of ‘breaking a swing low’ …until we do break a weekly or monthly swing low this puppy will still keep running but if we break 2 or more weekly swing lows … we could see this thing drop to the old highs at 5600.  Stay tuned …

What a run! Hugh?

Main20140612220624 Main20140612221917

Also, please be advised that a reader corrected me on the price and time of the old time low.  I did some more research and it appears the low was in the 1930’s around 30 points lower than the one in the late 1800’s. Negligible when we are up at 8000 BUT extremely important.

When you look at the Yahoo Finance Chart below – try to disregard this is the entire life cycle of the Transports – and just look at the symmetry of the 3 drives to a top pattern that is appearing.


notice the decreasing volume and POTENTIAL 3 drives to a top

notice the decreasing volume and POTENTIAL 3 drives to a top


had some fun w/ $AMZN over @seeitmarket an Update

04/06/2017 – its been a while but did do an update for Andy and the gang @seeitmarket:

After this post, went and did a peak at the measured moves and compared the last one to musical notes. basically, the measured move extended base on the 12th root of 2 or 1.05946.  the other method I used, taught to me by Michael Jenkins was a simple, yet powerful, projection technique using the “move down” to balance w/ the same move up (the purple arrows).

As one can see, it moved roughly 2 percent past the measured move target and we still do not have a SRC. Since the high candle started this week, we use the LOW of the high monthly candle as the “new” SRC base.  That “new” SRC if looking for the short is 885.

Until we get a monthly or weekly close below 885 I would stay away  from the short side. I relative terms, we are close to 1000 and in this euphoric and unrelenting bull market how cool would it be to hit 1000 / share for AMZN.


Dollar Index since the Plaza Accord …room to run, BUT (?) …UPDATED and UPDATED again

04/01/2017 – Happy April Fools Day!

per below, the US Dollar Index smacked right into our target …but, the PATTERN certainly looks like one more wave ahead. Then, well, things are going to get really interesting!  Next stop is more than likely 106-108 on the index.

it’s quite clear to see 5 waves completing up into that area …

also, was ‘hoping’ for a deeper correction as shown on the dollar index but the ‘fundamental frequency’ stopped it and, for now, probability says a low is in place for the USD and it should vault higher in the coming weeks.

one last, on the chart below, note the cycle tops from 1985, 2001 line up in May 2015.

Going to get really interesting.


1/14/2017 – if your into harmonics and patterns, then read below. If you just want the bottom line up font (BLUF) then read this: WAIT to do anything on the US Dollar.



Obviously, I’m “called” or “attracted” to a movie like this because of the amazing synchronicity to ‘string theory’ and ‘time’ … so if I really want to go ‘deep’, so to speak, I will play a soundtrack like this w/ only this music in the background and a chart …

what’s most important .. ? where are we now ..,

  • there is BEARISH RSI divergence on the monthly
  • the TIME component (a big deal) is EXACTLY equal to the last major rally in the index since the Plaza Accord
  •  the most recent high is a 1.1618 projection and EXACTLY .786 the rally from 1995-2201 – EXACTLY
  • we have RECORD NEGATIVE/BEARISH sentiment for the EURO (a major component of the index)
  • see blog and note the cycles on the POUND and the AUSSIE and LOONIE
  • note: the RSI ‘transition’ to higher support zones … that’s bullish

So, UNFORTUNATELY, my friend we need to WAIT and IF (the big IF ) every thing is to come together then we should see support come in around 92-95 to get long on the dollar.


PS – you read it here … I’m REALLY ‘believing’ (not supposed to do that) that the $$$ will find support in/around the areas sighted below. BUT .. if you try and SEE the picture that’s painted .. this COULD BE A MONSTROUS $$$ TOP. How will we know …. no flipping idea. You guys/gals tell me ….


12/30/2016 – updating the US Dollar Index post

  • bearish divergence – check
  • 1.618 price projection hit – is this an a-b-c correction and the dollar has peaked? Potentially … or is wave 3 of 5 concluding w/ a pull back imminent?
  • SENTIMENT is extreme bearish for the EURO and GOLD
  • note – we are hitting the same TIME correction in a couple days as the move up from 1992-2001
  • Economist .. the best contrarian indicator out there.

CLIFF NOTES: if you read below you’ll see there are other targets higher.  We are approaching the same TIME as the last move up in the dollar against the smash from the Plaza accord so the ‘no brainer’ long dollar trade is one that begs of caution.  Is this THE top in the USD and now we go back below 70?  Don’t know, but a preponderance of evidence suggests STIFF resistance from now into January for the USD.




11/19/2016 – if you want to follow the Dollar posts, just search dollar on the top right area of the blog.  the overall thesis, which has proven to be correct so far, was the dollar was going to strengthen all the way from the low 70’s.  it’s been a nice run …

is there higher to go … yes.

but then …

here’s the picture – note, I’ve used the high from the Plaza Accord in 1985 to put the .382 retracement on the chart. That also overlaps w/ some nice other extension and retracement ratios.  Believe the highlighted area in/around 107-108 is going to be key.

also, note the TIME component between the last major rally from 1992-2001.  Next month, or, depending on how you draw the time component, perhaps January the Dollar Index should run into some pretty stiff resistance in TIME.

last thing is the Elliott Wave count … I always tell people – I LOVE Elliott wave – when it works.  here, the count has been pretty much a “Ray Charles count” on a long term basis.  I’ll try to walk you thru the importance:

  • market corrects in 3 waves labeled a-b-c
  • the market moves impulsively in 5 waves
    • wave 2 can’t overlap the beginning of wave 1
    • wave 3 can’t be the shortest
    • wave 4 can’t overlap the beginning of wave 1
  • if you take the low in 2008 and start working your way up we see that we are ‘clearly’ creating 3 waves into yesterdays price action.
    • here’s where it gets tricky .. simply, I don’t know if this an a-b-c big corrective move OR we are impulsively going higher in a 1-2-3-4-5 sequence.
    • the key here – wave c (of a-b-c) always has to be 5 waves (unless in a triangle)
      • so if you look you can see the ‘small’ 1,2,3,4,5 being carved out (Turkey reference) so the blue highlighted area 107-108 COULD be the end of a C wave and the entire A-B-C move OR the end of wave 3 and we correct 4 and then off we go again in 5.

I honestly have no idea …. 

Here’s what the charts are SHOWING US:

  • square root target
  • the ‘time’ of the last corrective move
  • the ‘count’ showing we are in the 5th wave of C and 3
  • EXTREME sentiment for a strong dollar
  • the .382 from the all time high
  • divergence set up on Monthly RSI
  • ‘other’ extension and retracement targets

Expect some major resistance .. again, we are 6 handles away from the target area and that represents HUGE moves in currency .. BUT remember, right now, we are at extreme (not historic) but extreme sentiment and this has never proven to be wrong from a contrarian indicator. This puppy could snap back on you really really quick.

only TIME will tell … let me know if you have any questions.


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Interesting chart … XIV (inverse VIX) UPDATED

03/25/2017 – well looks like it went up into the zone discussed below.  I’ve labeled the extension targets as 1.732 (square root of 3), 1.68179 (note the closes) a musical note and the projection was 1.27AB = CD. 1.27 is the square root of 1.618.

as you can see, it sold off but DID NOT give a weekly signal reversal so continue to monitor. Often times, it “likes” to go back to the level of the first failure around 60 as shown.

good weekend to you ..







03/25/2017 – appears we have some stalling at new all time highs.  below is a monthly w/ the fundamental frequency calculated (FFreq) showing the 64-64 area to resistance.  if we pull back from here, a logical first stop and perhaps a buy is around the old all time highs in the early 2000’s.

now, below you will see the weekly chart from 2009.  lot’s of stuff going on so I’ll break it down:

  • blue triangles shows us a POTENTIAL 3 drive to a top pattern. note the time symmetry … very nice
  • the blue arrow lines show the AB=CD
  • the dashed green lines show another AB=CD (that one goes up to 66 but it’s pretty much there)
  • note the horizontal red line – that’s the old all time high
  • on the right side of the chart, note the near perfect price symmetry

so, I can see “why” it’s stopped here.  a pullback is to be expected but if we break down below the old all time highs on say, a weekly candle, then something might also be up and a bigger move lower could be in the works.

the BIG PATTERN up in/around 72-74 is still in play, but perhaps not quite yet?

stay tuned.


10/20/2016 – it’s hard being a musical chartist.  inherently you find yourself a contrarian (which you really aren’t) because you just see patterns and music and harmony w/ form, balance and proportion.  yes, I get it, MSFT is all the rage because it got to new time highs.  but who was ‘talking’ about it when it was about to complete an EXACT pattern based on music and geometry (see below) in/around 13-14 dollars.  nobody …also, note, the chart below showing the BUY was “real time” in that, as my faithful readers know, I try really hard to not “should have” or “would have” or “could have” on the chart ….

so, w/ the monster gap up to new highs that opens up the 72-74 area for the next pattern.


note the strength in MSFT .. .618 from Monthly charts (projections) usually cause more resistance.



Here is the BUY on MSFT – some amazing harmony, form, proportion and balance.  Just take one second and look at that chart … no idea what is going on w/ their fundamentals and, it was quite the “crazy” time for it to find support during the 2009 thump.  But … a PATTERN is  a PATTERN is a PATTERN. so, here’s the BUY on MSFT issued in March 2009.

BUY on MSFT in March 2009

BUY on MSFT in March 2009

so, where are we now?

we are approaching the .618 from the all time high on decreasing volume and an overall market that “should” be correcting.  Time to take some off and get ready for the next wave …in my humble opinion.  (note – 50-52 is still a target.)

MSFT approaching resistance zones - watch closely or take some off the table

MSFT approaching resistance zones – watch closely or take some off the table


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