well, underwater on TBT. I’ve shown my entry and man did that look like a NICE one .. but, it’s all probability. folks there was a TON of math coming together in /around 17-18 and it got wiped out. but, we have some support holding at the .707.
I’ll cut half my position on TBT if we lose 16.06 to the downside on a DAILY close below.
I’m still bullish RATES but … trade what you see, right? let’s give it a couple more days and then might need to throw half a towel into the ring on this one …
also, I’ve done the 30 year continuous futures contract INVERTED to show the same picture at TBT and to also see if there is some support that might be found on this one … hmmmmm. can’t win em’ all …
investing is like golf .. learn how to play out of the rough and the sand and you will be a good golfer! I’m still learning!
above is one of my first forays into Harmonic Pattern Recognition … it’s PFE way way down in the low teens. believe I was looking for 13-14 as the low. anyway, when looking at PFE today it reminded me of that chart …
anyway, based on this vaccine stuff and a boat load of cash, looks like PFE is off to the races. some nice resistance above on the weekly and then a “final” target at a double AB=CD and 1.27 extension. that should stop it or at least provide some stiff resistance.
that was QUITE the pop today and we are getting close to resolving “one more leg lower” or was that it …
either way, my BULLISH outlook on Bitcoin remains … the chart below is the bearish option and the one I’m going w/ for now … but, we will know soon.
be ready to shift to the “low” is in place and we are advancing in a 5th wave (foot stomp) but the move should be big ..
so, in the more near term bearish you can easily see we did 5 waves down and now we are simply doing a 3 wave B move and then a BIG C wave to come …
I’ve noted a very important level for resistance .. if that holds and we start down lower then it should be impulsive and powerful (like a classic C wave) …
I want to see that “resistance” level noted above to being take out to the upside before going long. truthfully, would love the a-b-c to be in play as it will give us a better AND a rule of life is that the C wave HAS TO BE 5 WAVES (EWT) and it’s usually very violent and harmonic and pretty easy to count so when we do go long, we should have a very risk controlled entry to go long.
yes, big spike today, but don’t get fooled or too bought into the bullish case, just yet.
hope makes sense .. let me know if I’m missing anything.
if the blue measured moves tell us anything … corrections usually occur at their completion. right now, we are at that extreme and we are banging up against a 1.27 extension. would use that level ( or a little higher) for stop out point and would look to sell on a close below 44.50.
the masses are at “play” here w/ AMC and what a better laboratory to test harmonic patterns than on THIS stock …
the only caveat – it’s all probability. that being said, w/ the balance of thousands upon thousands of our fellow retail traders holding 2 shares portfolios at risk, we can enter w/ a defined point and another defined point of where we are wrong …
so, the GARTLEY PATTERN buy is 28.80-30.98.
the red lines are back from the weekly/monthly and are horizontal lines placed upon former resistance that should (operative word) act as support .. the polarity principle.
anything below the above and this puppy is cooked …
TBT has fallen into the bottom level of BUY zone and I’m long TBT in/around 18.
A lot going on w/ his chart but wanted to show you some “other” geometry that I was working … you see, we can make arcs and develop trend lines using the geometry of the chart but also, using the TIME and PRICE to define the vectors.
in this case, we take the all time low and draw the bottom of the square to intersect the “time” of the high. that will define our arcs and the square. the most important aspect of a square is the 45 degree angle (red line) and that line we then “copy” and “paste” to the bottom right of the first square and, well look at that … it intersects the LOW almost exactly. we also draw another square (and we can/will keep drawing these squares to find the trend lines running the show) and notice how the two 45 degree angles TIMED the low almost exactly .. (FWIW, this was a precise 1.618 AB =CD and a .618 retracement along w/ the same percentage corrective move that drove price into the all time low … came in around 21-22 percent decline.
so, while we do have the traditional “slap a retracement grid and look for the .618 retracement and a whole lot more …
take some time to study this chart .. try to understand it as it’s very helpful, indeed.
and, w/ all this work, I’ll consider it “wrong” if we get a daily close below 16.08 (.786 retracement)good weekend to everyone …
lot’s of pressure on the Coin … certainly doesn’t look like the low will hold and will plunge into the 20k’s.
here’s the deal, this smells, feels (I’ve been “scrambled” (surfing term being caught inside) by a C-Wave before) and while it’s a fools game to pick tops or bottoms, I’m trying to find the pattern that will give us the best entry.
I’m long the Coin and getting some egg on my face (see scrambled above) but am going to hold to look for some support and the possible low to be in place to begin the march higher … what do we have going:
Note (3) up near the all time highs .. I REALLY LIKE when a new high is made on 3 waves. that is a classic “b” Wave into the new high and then C wave wipes everyone out – like right now.
the wave count (if this is correct) shows 5 distinct waves down from the high … a “guideline” NOT A RULE is that when 3 extends (in this case 1.618) then 1 = 5 (blue arrows into/around 23K)
a RULE is wave 4 (we are in an expanded flat wave 4 correction right now – if correct) is it cannot go below the end of 1 .. (dashed green line) around 15K. If we go thru 15k to the downside then wipe out the count and this is 100% wrong.
I threw a “basic” retracement grid up there and highlighted the blue box for a support zone that would 1/ finish 5 waves down, 2/ finish the C-wave and 3/ end (4) and then we go UP into the 70’s to start …
also, threw in the fundamental frequency targets (dashed purple lines) and also used the largest percentage correction (dashed red arrows to find the mid-20’s looks like a stopping point to give another a shot ..
it’s all about the data folks … in this case we have a monthly continuous contract of Copper Futures. the PATTERN into the low back in 1990-2000 (yes it took 10 years to complete .. read that again – 10 years) is hard to understand w/out anymore data to the left of it’s beginning so it’s hard to figure out if the high in 2010 was a big 3 or big 5.
thus, I’m going to outline two scenarios ..one bearish one bullish.
BEARISH: replace the big bright orange question mark w/ a bigger 5. IF that is the case THEN the most recent high was completing a B wave and we have started a C wave down … C waves are freight trains of beauty and a wonder to behold .. leave nothing in their wake. stand by …
now, hold the phone, what if the big bright orange question mark is/was a 3? then, the BULLISH scenario is we just finished wave 3, are correcting wave 4 and copper is a BUY into new highs … it’s still working it’s way thru the corrective PATTERN that will appear so it’s hard to make a projection but we should NOT go below (1) as that will violate a rule …
so, for now, take note of the blue arrows .. the all time high was, yup, an AB=CD staring from May 1999. It smacked right into that …
kind of in no mans land from a count perspective due to data but expect the two red horizontal lines to act as support due to the polarity principle …
Happy Fathers Day …
also, note EEM .. smacked into a nice target zone in/around 58 and the second chart shows the daily sell signal on EEM.
minor EEM sell pattern on the daily …
last, note the synchronicization between copper and emerging markets … pretty nice correlation.
last, note the FXI (china) has NOT made new highs while Copper and EEM have .. below you can see that high/low inflection points are nicely timed by the Chinese ETF …
so, for now, expect copper weakness for the next couple weeks then we can figure out where we might be from a count. if anyone has really long term copper data please let me know.
below you will find the SHORT DOW ETF called SDOW. it’s pretty fascinating if you think about it or look at it .. your preference.
basically right around the start of the pandemic around the week of 02/14/20 the volume was HUGE and the SDOW went on a nice run higher. well played … but since then it’s down basically 10X and there is still a lot of buying …
look to the far left and this ETF fell so far and nobody was interested and then last year hit and someone/somebody has been buying and selling this security …
now, of late, if you look closer to the last couple candles and corresponding volume you’ll see that the most BUYING volume ever has come in AND the price as pretty much stabilized at/around the low 30’s ….
alert went off last week and the upper target zone on the DJ Transports has been hit ..on my monthly chart that level is 16180 and while I know a lot of you will just see a NUMBER and that’s cool but when you play w/ numbers EVERY day you see 1.618 … you study sooooo much that you understand “why” we don’t need decimal points and what they actually mean so you can move decimals point around.
if this is the high, I really have no idea if it is or it isn’t then the Architect has a really FUN sense of humor. think about it .. the “low” during the financial crisis on the cash SPX was 666. not kidding .. check it out. now, w/ one of the MAJOR indices topping out on the Golden Mean … well look at that.
the chart below is the “bearish” short term case … as you can see from the title, right now, we have been making the stair steps of “higher lows” but it’s not a THRUSTING or MOMENTUM move like the one we saw off the low in/around 30K and the geometry/form is starting to “look and feel” like a 4th wave triangle …
so, need the 38,340 and 40,000 to get taken out to the upside by momentum and a daily close else we are going to be under some more pressure …
the good thing .. we have a clue where we are w/ both scenarios so we can plan accordingly.
in this case, the triangle, they “usually” occur in the 4th wave and then have sharp reversals … mid 20’s can be expected if the bearish triangle is in force.
if not, then the “stair steps” should hold and we are beginning a move into the 70’s …
the chart below is the chart we are currently working off .. in this case we are following the bullish case that the spike low in/around 30K was the end of the C wave and we are going to advance …
need to see some thrust/momentum UP to validate the low is in place … so far, that is our running gameplan.
truth in advertising, always, on my blog … the bearish triangle gains traction the longer we just limp along like the dead cat bounce this might be …
LOVE the Loonie … as you can see below, IF (the big IF) you can catch a wave this FX pair likes to run .. in either direction. well here comes a wave …
at 1 we have the classic AB=CD and, at least for now, it is holding …
at 2 we have a lot of MATH coming together along w/ a corrective (dashed red line) move that has present on most EVERY major corrective pullback.
w/in both above (1 and 2) we have the TIME dashed green line … that’s pretty key to me. Something (hint hint look up at the sky at night) has been responsible for the corrective TIME of EVERY MOVE DOWN since the beginning. a measured move in time, if you will. if your wondering, the dashed orange line is of course harmonically related by fibo .382.
guess what, I’ll WAIT for that … and that’s the end of the summer, and I’ll table the Loonie but I wanted to show the power of TIME and PRICE combined. Guess what, if it doesn’t work, there’s 50+ other currency pairs. I’m trying after so so many years fighting to make this easy and enjoyable …
in the last post we created two target zones w/ the “basic” AB=CD and 1.618AB=CD projection technique. doing some rudimentary wave counts I’m going to call the low as a corrective move being complete but I’m updating my count to show that this is still wave 3 of 5 that we are in …
what does this mean?
we “should” (from current levels) move up into the mid 70’s or 80’s and, depending on the chaos of the masses maybe even higher but it is going to be the final wave higher w/in this BIG 3rd wave.
then, expect another nice shake down WHICH SHOULD BE BOUGHT for the final leg that should take us into the 100k’s …
today, the ratio went and smacked right into an hourly pattern SELL (yellow highlight) and a 15 minute butterfly sell (light blue) …
when the ratio goes DOWN the market goes UP. pattern hit perfectly and the rally ensued …
now, it’s time to WATCH the next day or weeks action to see if this pattern fails and the sell off continues OR the ratio continues down causing sustained rally. I don’t recommend being LONG any indices right now as we are in a TIME and PRICE window that might prove significant.
today’s “Musk Induced” Sell off certainly smells like a C wave … that supports a zig-zag correction and it certainly smells like we are in a 4th wave correction … targets of low 40’s and, depending on thrust into this level forewarns of a move below into the low 30’s … we’ll just trust the patterns and the count.
but, for now, the lower targets are opening up nicely …
watch the levels shown on the GBP and the EURO and USD Index to get a feel for what might be coming this week.
IF we hold these levels then expect dollar strength .. EURO and POUND weak.
IF we FAIL on these sell patterns for the EURO and the POUND then the dollar will take a pounding and go right into the level we have been waiting for what seems like a LONG LONG time … stay tuned tonight.
personally, WAITING and have a “hunch” that the levels will fail (USD weakness) and go forth and attack the lower level shown on the USD Index which is the SAME level equal to EVERY move lower in the USD in the past 30+ years. worth waiting for … don’t you think?
our last post on Bitcoin ID’d multiple patterns … multiple AB=CD, a 3 drives and a butterfly sell all in the 65-68 area. in my original post I just took a look at the chart “real time” and said 66-67 but did some work on the intraday charts and 65-68 is the zone. honestly, I wasn’t worried about being too precise because I’m generally looking for this wave to end and 4th wave correction to occur so i can BUY again. right now, I’m going to say that based on the gap down today, that we have a Wave 3 complete and are correcting in Wave 4. again, there are targets a little higher but I’m not going to worry about that now as it appears that this gap down has things going in the 4th wave correction direction.
also, note on the 60 minute chart, that we can certainly label this an island reversal and – if that is the case – then we can expect lower over the coming days and weeks.
now, am I screaming the top is in w/ the Coin? absolutely not … I’m looking to BUY again but found that the risk of continuing w/ my position outweighed the downside. now the hardest part – trying to get in a moving market. that part, for now, is TBD.
please see chart below … ultimately, it’s about risk control and how much risk one is willing to take.
our thesis is the 14-15 dollar low was a BIG low and we are very early in a multi-year (multi-decade (?)) rise in interest rates. yup, you just read that correctly …so to manage risk, one must understand that there is a potential that the trend has changed and we now have 3 different levels to enter …
here and now … GARTLEY 222 pattern complete at the low however, a nice gap down warns of lower prices. gaps into a level beg of caution …
19.14-19.42 …realistic w/ that gap down and lands basically on the top of the channel w/ polarity in play.
18-18.50 .. a lot of ratios and polarity principle (red line) … that looks good.
so, if the low today was the low but you don’t like the gap down then WAIT for a daily/weekly CLOSE above 21.50 for confirmation and BUY or if you do not think the low was today then WAIT for the two levels below.
either way, risk is basically in the 16-17 former cluster or the low at 14.28. that’s the true support zones. the lower breaks then the entire thesis is 100% wrong.
Bitcoin has made, as expected new highs and there is probably some more to go … that being said, the count has worked thus far so I’m sticking with it. always open to get the eraser out, as many of you know, but for now we are advancing in the 5th wave of a bigger wave 3.
I closed my position at 57k and have been sitting on my hands TRYING (it’s hard) to not be greedy and let the waves come to me …
as many of you do and some of you don’t I absolutely LOVE SUP Surfing and I had a board member from my non-profit (www.thesupvets.org) in this weekend and he said it was his “best day of surfing – ever.” peeps – it was amazing.
why? reading the waves on which one to take, which one will clobber you (there were plenty of those and which one is a better L or R, etc. same thing goes w/ the market. it’s all number, vibration and … well waves. the chart below is the bigger picture – updated w/ an RSI and commentary. so far, the “set” coming in looks like it could be ridden.
what do I see nearer term(note: trade what you see, not what you believe)is the following:
RSI: note the stair steps higher, in the bigger picture chart above, as this is the “transition” technicians see when the RSI finds new zones of support and resistance that correspond to a bull or a bear case. in this case – bullish longer term but we also have bearish divergence (new highs in price and lower highs in RSI) that is present in the 5th wave advance of a move … key. so, we can see bearish divergence that corresponds to a 5 wave count and, of course, PATTERNS.
the chart below is, frankly, a work of art. the synergy that is coming together is remarkable. we have, pretty much, ALL OF THE PATTERNS COMING TOGETHER in/around 66-67. AB=CD, 3 drives to a top and a BUTTERFLY SELL Pattern. WOW.
so, all this means is this level is REALLY important. if it holds we’ll probably get a BIG correction (the one I’m waiting for) OR BITCOIN WILL EXPLODE HIGHER. it’s just a pattern but man is this one important.
at this point, to protect a position, if you have one open, move stop to entry level at .8475.
you can see the “polarity” principle in play where the support in the spring of last year is now acting as resistance in the spring of this year …. hmmmm.
anyhoo … I’m looking for an initial target to take some off in/around 8850.
note the 38.2 and 50% retracements, largest measured move correction (dashed red line) and he polarity principle again but this time highlighted by a darker/bolder red. why? this level held as support for MONTHS and when it finally gave away, it gave away big …
note, depending on the form of the correction (if it even stops here) I might be looking to add on a pullback into the 8550-8600 area.
taking a look back at Uber we have reached the objective discussed a couple months ago ” in the low 60’s”
note the SAT trend line .. yes, that is SATURN HELIOCENTRIC. Nice little band it’s been banging into from a support and resistance perspective … certainly looks “toppy” and one could easily draw “another” H+S formation from the beginning of 2021 and most recently … key neckline as shown below.
I’ve had a couple people text me over the past couple days regarding Natural Gas and UNG.
well, right now UNG is definitely a dog and I went a little red today but I’m going to stay w/ this one because 1/ this is a LONG TERM play and 2/ I’ve been watching a SUPERB BUY pattern on the Natural Gas futures as shown below.
certainly looks like it wants to go down and tag that level … I’ll hold LONG UNG until that level is tagged. it DOES NOT need to go down there but it’s a valid pattern BUY ….until that level is taken out to the downside on a daily/weekly close I’ll remain my bullish outlook on Natural Gas.
will I add to my position w/in UNG if it goes down and tags that level … NOPE. as a pattern recognition investor/trader I have been taught to never add to a losing position. so, I’ll WAIT for it to become positive before ever thinking of adding anything and if it blows thru the BUY PATTERN to the downside then I’ll take a loss. that loss NEVER exceeds 3% of the total trading capital.
checking in on CSCO we are at a VERY important point as CSCO is showing the completion of a near perfect SELL SIGNAL but due to thrust, if the pattern works, would wait for a signal reversal candle below 50.
if the pattern fails then, it’s quite possible that we have begun the parabolic leg up the opposite side of the mirror image foldback. it sure has tome thrust fueling its rise so this pattern is REALLY important for the Bulls/Bears.
also, one last, if you take your AB as the all time low to the all time high and then project .618 that length from 8 dollars you smack right into the last high in/around 58.
the 50’s … appear really important for CSCO
tomorrow is either a “gap and gone” higher or a “big stiff wall of resistance” for any further advance ….
turned bullish on Bitcoin down around 6-7K and off it went….
the past couple weeks have been interesting as it’s been hovering around the 50-60K mark.
I’m still bullish.
as for – right now – I see another leg up to make a newer high and then a BIG 4th wave correction and then another big run higher – 100K+ not out of the question.
closed my entire position at 57k ish and now am just going to WAIT and do nothing and watch my thesis shown in the chart below work out what’s going to happen next.
Elliott Wave, as I have OFTEN said, is AWESOME – when it works. it’s hard, no doubt, but learning the corrections is key.
using the guideline of alternation, looks like a zig-zag for wave two so I’ll be expecting (not a sure thing at all – it’s a guideline) for a flat or a triangle perhaps but either way, I’m going to hold …
also, note, we have some big time volatility here … so as long as the coming correction does not go below the big blue 1 then we might conceivably correct 70% and STILL BE BULLISH.
also the BIG 3 is projected to end around 68K. it doesn’t need to get up there – at all. but that target puts a very nice 3 drive to a top in play …
I’ve been monitoring the ratio, daily, for a while as I really wanted the ratio to go down into the “major support” area as I could then feel probability was on my side to take a crack at shorting the market. yes, shorting the market …
if you’ve been reading my blog for a while and for those newer blog readers you will find out/know that the patterns on the XLP/NYA ratio have been exact and helpful in understanding the flow of funds in the big institutions. KEY.
so, I noticed the “key trend line” last time I blogged and noted it but, honestly, haven’t been paying that much attention to it .. just had the lower “major support” level on my hand but, the “key trend line” looks like it has tagged the ratio and provided some much needed support for this falling knife.
now what – well – we are kind of in no mans land … but, I’ll be watching closely and, keep the “major support” level a little below in the back of your head …
that’s the great thing about patterns … they work or they don’t.
WHEN they do, they tell you something.
conversely, when they DO NOT work, they tell you something.
I’ve been showing a 5 wave count in IWM for a while and, just recently, it went up and tagged our target zone. it’s one of many target zones …
the question is “is this the one?”
I don’t know … but we have an intraday BUY PATTERN and if this is a bullish corrective move then this level SHOULD hold … yes, a correction can go into the 210’s but in this case we have the classic AB=CD, 1.4142 extension and the .382 retracement all right here, right now.
IF bullish, THEN this level holds and goes higher …. we’ll see
update: rolling into a BUY zone for both futures and UNG. IF the thesis that a BIG low is in place THEN we should find support and then continue upward.
take time to look at the long term Nat Gas Continuous Contract chart … you can see the “major” trend line which is acting like resistance .. a weekly open and close above that trendline could signal game on for the bulls.
if major support breaks then we could be looking at the 7 dollar level on UNG. needs to find support in the area shown …
note, on the monthly, looks like we will start the month closed below the key trend line from 2007. and he market accelerated upward.
that being said, we are approaching the “target zone” for a lot of math and I also want to call your attention to the monthly RSI and the support zone that its approaching …
I went back and checked .. the last two times it touched this low of a level in the past 15 years was 05/2018 which was part of a -40% ish correction and 07/2007 and we knew what happened during that time frame.
if you have been following my blog, you’ll remember the big measured moves that were around when the dollar was carving out THE low. they have appeared/are appearing again. w/ a wrinkle … using “basic” monthly cycle tools you can see that we have a BIG cycle coming in this month which lines up w/ the measured move target zone a little lower in the index. this could be a BIG DOLLAR MOVE higher ….
below you’ll find the chart that started the dollar bears growling and stopped the dollar bull in it’s track. the form, proportion and balance are amazing and exact. take time to study this chart
since then, the USD Index has basically been carving out what looks like a flat correction and then higher … you can read prior posts to see if this was an A-B-C correction or 1,2,3,4 (in work/finishing) and then higher in a big 5th wave. we are getting a little below the end of wave 1 which breaks a rule if your a purist but it sure looks like we are bottoming. then, the last chart is an intraday chart showing a possible mathematical derivation of wave length based on fibo relationships that could get us into the target zone … so, stand by, as this is a BIG level coming up on the USD.
it’s time to really start paying attention to the market across the board.
in this case, there is a high probability that this count is correct. I was able to use some of the data from the peeps at http://www.elliottwave.com. I enjoy their newsletter and while sometimes too early, in the end, they have proven to be correct.
I’ve found that when my count matches their count AND we have a turning point in the Martin Armstrong cycles things do happen …
bottom line … I would fasten your chin straps and get ready for Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride … folks, I love SUP Surfing.
and, believe it or not, I see the waves and look for patterns and fractals of the waves that are coming in my Pacific Ocean playground. all I can think about is a tsunami to describe the wave that is approaching our shores. I’m not even sure if this wave is one that anybody could ride, it’s that powerful.
call me crazy, many continue to do so, but we are entering into territory that NOBODY alive has ever experienced.
as you can see, the ratio hit this level, held and the market sold off for a couple days. the market strength the past week has been impressive and, with that, the ratio “failed” at the level indicated and, as you can see, we have a pretty big candle that is closing at the low, for now, so it sure looks like the pattern failed.
that being said, I’m not overtly bullish here, right now. note the key, dashed black line, trend line is approaching and then below that we have 3 ratio’s, an AB=CD (dashed black line) and the all important measured move from the 2003-2007 time frame. MAJOR SUPPORT for the ratio … also, of note, is the 14 period RSI is approaching a key support level …
could the market continue higher from here – of course – but there are some other sell patterns present on other indices so I’m just going to be flat/neutral here.
one last, note the TIME of the corrections .. on this leg up from 2007 the corrections (blue rectangle w/ ‘time’ written on top) has been nearly perfect and, if that is the case, then this current leg down, from a timing perspective isn’t ready, yet.
could we be at the start of a parabolic move higher? let’s wait and see what the “MAJOR support” level does before we get too far ahead of ourselves.
the PATTERN failed this AM and the market pushed higher. for a correction in the market to continue in earnest, you can see we need the .786 level to hold. right now, the low back in late/mid January should not be taken out to the downside w/out a little more pullback in equities.
also, note the blue measured move arrows. probability says we sell off a little if that level does get hit as it has reacted that way the past two times.
XLP/NYA hit a nice buy pattern on Friday and based on the entire days action, there is another “minor” buy pattern appearing. if both of these hold, then the staples should continue to outperform which traditionally causes equity weakness.
if we lose the levels, then we have the .786 ratio a little lower … either way, the ratio should NOT take out the January 20 low, for now, as that was a pretty big target. sure looks like probability favors more upside for the ratio next week.
we have a very KEY level of support on the XLP/NYSE Index ratio.
as you can see below … we have the measured move (dashed red line) equal to the largest correction in the ratio since the low in 2007 and w/ that the lowest level on the RSI in 12+ years. note, a bullish divergence does not appear to be needed for the ratio to find support …sometimes there was some bullish divergence and other times it just hit the support level and reverse higher. I do think it’s necessary to to take this into account.
then, we have a significant amount of math coming into this level w/ the .786 retracement from the last swing low hit last week.
lastly, we have key trend line support a little lower … this is a “good” trend line because you can see that it was respected as resistance when we copy/pasted the lower trend line onto the higher prices to create the blue trend channel … bottom line is to expect support in the ratio.
so now to the IF and THEN statement of using PATTERNS.
IF the ratio does find support THEN the equity market should correspondingly correct/move lower. ELSE, a blow thru to the downside of the ratio will make the market continue higher and, perhaps, w/ force.
we will be in that key decision making process – next week.
the second chart is just showing the NYSE Index overlaid on top of the ratio .. as you can see when the ratio finds support, the market corrects – every time.
If you have gone down the rabbit hole that I have (hint it never stops) then you uncover tidbits of information that you would never think were important but one of those moments of “that’s cool” and move on …
I am eyeing a NICE currency position and then ended up cruising around the charts and was looking at Monthlies on a bunch of stuff. The charts reminded me of some of my early market music stuff and I figured I would go back and check em out …
Came across this long term DJIA chart ( I won’t bore you the importance of logs, numerology, blah blah and read the first sentence above. :)) It’s a technique for price projections that I learned from my friend and mentor, Michael Jenkins (www.stockcyclesforecast.com – RECOMMEND), and the results were pretty astounding.
I’ve shown some past blogs around the importance of the number 28.48. It’s a key PRICE NODE that has been at most tops and bottoms. So using it as a projection technique? Why not!
Then, you know I love music so … why not combine them w/ rates of change (logs) and … well the result is below. The use of logs and musical note ratio’s from the all time low on the DOW have been almost exactly the price using the log projection w/ the musical note E ratio.
The next appearance of this PRICE is 40,655 as annotated on the chart. One last, take a note of the blue arrows. the basic AB=CD lands, close enough, right on our target.
At this rate, from a timing perspective, it’s not that far off now is it ….?
Cycles are lining up, just saying.
below, note the symmetry of the projections and how, at least for now, EVERY MOVE, has been equal to each other and aligned w/ the Golden Mean.
while we came close to our upper targets, we never actually hit them but based on this price action I’m going to assume that we have a near term top in place for a much needed correction to relieve the steam.
this is very preliminary but I’m using the past to project into the future .. using the past “percentage” and “price” corrections (dashed red and orange arrows respectively) I’m projection DOWN into logical support areas simply because that is what worked last time …
additionally, I put a “basic” retracement grid from the ATL to the ATH. some nice synergies appearing.
once all that was done I drew some “basic” trend channels (light blue and red lines) and those can always act as support based on polarity …
plus a couple “two tree” (slang from the Navy) gaps were left on the way up so they will also act as support.
we wait … wait for the form, balance and proportion to signify that this correction is complete. the last one was almost 9 months long.
the last time we blogged about the GDOW we saw a pattern and the AB=CD and warned of another possible move down … we got a 36% correction from the AB=CD. what is fascinating, is the correction from 2007-2009 was related to the most recent correction by … yup, 1.618. if you take the correction from 2018-2020 and multiply it by 1.618 you will get the 2007-2009 correction in percentage terms.
anyway, in another 10% or so we are going to have a major test for the Global Dow.
and, objectively, STRICLY LOOKING AT THE CHARTS, this sure looks/smells like 3rd of a 3rd action so I’m updating my count.
it BLEW THRU the first two targets at 23K and 34K and now I’m eyeing 43-45L and 51K
does this mean the run in bitcoin is over – I DO NOT think so.
as you can see, I believe we have higher to go, much higher.
coming up w/ targets allows one to manage risk and, potentially, pyramid for doubling or tripling of prices in the future.
what should we expect – VERY violent and liquidating corrective moves (operative saying – corrective) to give one an opportunity to ADD their to ones position.
for those w/ an equity only account here’s GBTC the Bitcoin Investment Trust. nice target hit (a 1.27 extension and 3.142 projection) w/ a pullback occurring – BUT look at the size of the candle and the appropriate volume. glad SOMETHING respected a level (LOL) but don’t think it’s the end of this wave – yet.
if your a conservative you’ll be happy and if your a liberal you will be angry … (having fun folks) but, either way, a SELL PATTERN is complete on Twitter. For the pattern to be considered it should not go above 62.
at a minimum, expect a potential double digit move lower.
doing an update as we can see the well defined downtrend that has been in place since, pretty much, inception in 2008.
if you followed some of the other Bond work on the site then you would know our thesis is there is a MAJOR HIGH in bonds (TBT is the inverse) so, we could be, perhaps, looking at the very beginning of a BIG run in TBT.
yes, interest rates to rise and, potentially, rise VERY fast …. hang on.
perfect TIME and PRICE patterns were hit today and, IF (a really big if) the count is correct we are on the verge of a very powerful move in the bonds ….
the thesis was that we had a VERY VERY large top in March of this year at multiple waves of degree. the pattern that hit today was one of those text book sell PATTERNS and the price reacted. here we go?
if you search for Natural Gas on the blog, you’ll see for almost 3 years – yes 3 years, I’ve been flirting w/ a low (big low) on Nat Gas and looking for the pop … back in 2017 we ID’d a pop but it quickly got run over. Wrong …and, since then, I’ve really just dropped it off my radar.
two of my really good virtual (unfortunately) friends from the Academy, Rugby, flying and blah blah and me trade texts back and forth. they act all smart like they are finance guys about the news and the P&E (did I spell that right) and fundamentals .. I just look at PATTERNS.
they asked about Nat Gas. “Great,” I thought “I can go back and visit my old nemesis. and, I would be an idiot to forget what now President Biden said about energy, right? One would think it would be falling out of the sky. EXACT opposite.
I believe it made a VERY big low in July, it just finished a 5 wave move up from an “ending diagonal” and we have 5 ratio’s (retracements, extensions, measured moves, projections) all coming in at 2.2.
I do want you take note of the yellow area at the left of the screen .. on a daily, this area looks like an expanded flat. however, when you drill down to a lower time frame (here a 4 hour) it sure looks like I’m curve fitting – which I might be, just being honest. I’m putting a bias into the fact that I’m right on the thesis: BIG LOW. that changes things somewhat because wave 4 CANNOT go below the end of wave 1 (or above if going down). sometimes you can dirty your purist mindset and maybe go w/ a CLOSE below 1 and if there is a daily wick or two right around the end of 1 you can curve fit and the count continues. folks, in this case 4 was below for almost 10 days … that’s a broken rule and an invalid count. see how fun Elliott Wave can be …?
one last, if you look at where the “PATTERN BUY” level is at that 2.1-2.2 zone one will see that the PATTERN completely closes the gap left on the 4 hour chart … nice.
If you look at UNG, it hasn’t budged so if your going to play the ETF/Fund side of the house, I would recommend that you wait to BUY until Nat Gas hits 2.2 on the continuous futures contract.
lot’s going on here … I’ve told peeps before “I’m a musical technician that uses crayons!” 🙂 I enjoy sitting down and seeing what the chart will tell you. it’s relaxing.
Uber popped into my mind after the mind boggling pop I heard about today. no other reason than that … anyhoo, you’ve seen me use most of these techniques before, so just hit me back or IM me and we can discuss.
bottom line … perhaps a pause here but this is impressive thrust so I would HOLD or be a buyer of dips looking to scoot into the low 60’s …
Update 02/23/2021 – the “sell zone” failed but, if you do look at the chart it basically held copper at bay for approximately 7-8 weeks, then exploded higher, just like the stock market. the past couple days I’ve been posting a LOT of 5 counts and took a peak at copper and smacked right into another higher target … yes, we have some strong thrust into this zone it’s something to take notice of ….. why? If the 5 counts are actually ending then this current level is what should hold copper, it’s that simple. If copper explodes higher, which it most certainly can, then I am hard pressed to find a reason for the equities to go down.
note – WATCH THIS COPPER LEVEL!
Copper,/ below, smacked right into the “SELL ZONE” … why is Copper being blogged about? Isn’t that a “who cares” type of metal? Ummmm, no. the inflection that occurs in copper has occurred in the stock market, as shown, on every major pivot since 2009, at a minimum. /
so, this “zone” is very important …. watch copper in the coming days/weeks to get a “feel” for the overall health of the market.
if you’ve been following my blog you know I’ll say “I love Elliott Wave, when it works…!” for Copper it certainly has. one of my first blog posts was about absolutely nailing the low at 4 by using, you guessed it, Elliott Wave.
is it going to work again … I really have no idea. that being said, if we follow the standard Elliott corrective construction, certainly looks reasonable that Dr. Copper is finishing a trend defining “b wave” and, just perhaps, a monstrous “c wave” cometh ….
you can go to any financial site and check out “why” the equities sold off today … it could be any number of reasons. at the end of last week, we had a double 3 drives to a top pattern w/ timing that said “monday” is important … to me, it is as simple as that.
in addition to that, take a peak at the XLP/NYA ratio. bounced off some BIG support so the sell off is nothing that wasn’t expected.
how big will this become – if at all? no idea if it’s a one day blip or a big thump coming. just going to look for patterns ..that being said, a ton of euphoria, a lot of SELL PATTERNS and our ratio analysis showing support and Staples to outperform the broader market which usually means – risk off.
if you do a search around music on this blog you’ll see a pretty long post about using music and logs to calculate targets. a chart from that blog is here:
until tonight did I think about the correction this year and it’s harmony w/ 28.48. well, shucks, it perfectly nailed the .382 from that all time low. we will see some iteration of 28.48 at the final high – whenever that may be because TIME will always EQUAL PRICE at the final high or low.
long long way to go to 40K and it won’t occur in a straight line BUT hopefully some of us will be around when it hits that upper target ….
believe it or not, I learned to trade as a SPOT Fx dude ..no kidding. No stocks, no futures, no ETF’s out of the Navy I jumped right into the INSANE world of SPOT FX …
I still trade the SPOT MARKET … I’ll check out the majors, then the crosses and see what’s the scoop. no kidding, I once heard that ALL the world bonds and commodities and stock markets would have to operate for 90 days non-stop to match the liquidity of ONE DAY on the Currency Market. YEW …
in this case we have a currency pair as the EURO vs the Japanese Yen. chart goes up the Euro is stronger. chart goes down the Yen (versus the Euro) is stronger … it’s as simple as that.
I’m cruising the charts waiting to get locked down in CA and saw a neat chart to my eye. I just started working this chart and …boooooom … we find a level as depicted.
Let’s make this easy, when we have a LOT of math in a really TIGHT area we HAVE to take a swing at the bat … now, that being said, that is some nice thrust from the 121.62 area but I think that last thrust up was the end of a flat correction. so the recent wave down, should (trust my count or not 🙂 not sure I do or I don’t to be honest 🙂 ) go to our targeted BUY ZONE. Say 120.50-121.
let me know if you have any questions on how the levels were derived …
oh, in the spot fx world, w/ SO MUCH math in one area, I usually give myself 30 pips below – max- for my stop out. w/ the liquidity of the FX and the math as shown, go down to a 1 minute chart for the entry .. seeing these levels hit, instantaneously watching the reaction and to think that w/ a home computer and some PATTERN work the entire world STOPPED selling EUR vs JPY and started BUYING EUR vs JPY. still amazes me … I’m always surprised to see this insane way to look at anything rational about the markets work from time to time ….
The notable aspect of Bitcoin is the CRUSHING of the Gartely 222 SELL PATTERN in/around 14-15k. As you have seen me blog before, failed patterns aren’t fun because IF you took the investment/trade THEN you probably lost money. But, to try and figure out “where” you are they tell you a lot. The “usually” result in explosive moves higher or lower depending on the the PATTERN being a BUY or a SELL.
As we approach new highs remember, this is a 5th wave … yes, it could explode higher and higher and higher ….but, the euphoria, the political landscape, the talking heads, the “insert something to fuel the rise here” are all going to be blathering but our job … trust the PATTERNS.
If/when we do get a nice pullback the levels of FAILED PATTERNS are usually good support or resistance depending o the type of pattern.
The 21-23K level is a BIG TARGET as it represents an AB=CD from the ALL TIME low and a 1.27 extension. It SHOULD be stiff resistance if not a big ole target.
Last, just take a second to study the 2nd chart below. Remember the CHAOS of the BITCOIN craze …? Well, if we take the point labeled “S” (start) and follow it to X then A= .786 SX. From there, just look at the relationships that were almost PERFECT in this heightened GLOBAL market. Can someone explain this to me …?
Just a little higher and the Dow Jones Transportation Index hits a major long term target ….
10/28/20 -not trying to play Captain Obvious, but that was an ugly sell off today. as shown a couple days/week ago, the Transports were coming up to BIG resistance and/or topping in the area we charted. (FWIW – folks it was simply measured moves. The Transports had done the EXACT same move EVERY TIME except once that was 1.27*measured move)
so this update is to just say, it’s simply too early to put some downside targets on the blog. the correction (or is it a TOP) will produce a CORRECTIVE PATTERN. For now, just chill and wait for the Captain Obvious BUY to appear, if ever.
Update: the Transports target has been achieved and on an intraday 60 minute chart, UPS, came w/in some cents to the exact level. On the daily it’s basically 1 percent below. Now, the level is the level is the level so that target still stands but in conjunction w/ the Transports, believe this target set has been achieved.
Now, look at how STRONG this move in UPS and the Transports is into new highs. IT IS STRONG. Thus, suggestion is to wait for either a MONTHLY or WEEKLY signal reversal candle on close. (the LOW of the HIGH candle is CLOSED BELOW)
As I signed off last time .. stay tuned!
One of our nicest and predictable patterns is the “long term” measured move or AB=CD. UPS has an AB=CD 179-180. I say “long term” because we really like to use the longest measured move possible. In this case, w/ UPS, we are using the all time low to the first “big” high in/around January 2018. From there we copy/paste the blue arrow and place it on the low at 81-82 and project. That’s it.
the other numbers and the IPO date are cues for me to look at cycles and other “stuff” – just helps w/ the probability because, well, who knows if any of this going to work anyway – right?
Additionally, since the “all-time” low in July of 1932 EVERY major correction has occurred after the “blue arrow” price move has completed. Note, in the case of the dashed orange arrow it was 1.27*the blue arrow. A number all too familiar w/ readers of this blog. And, finally, as you can see we have a measured move completing right around 12,000.
Now, if we do blow thru the target a little higher (and why not – it’s a rocketship) then we will still use our projections off the blue arrow to derive targets, along w/ other techniques.
But, here below, is the Daily and you can see that we are finishing up 5 waves and the synergy between wave 5 = 1.618 is present right at the level of the long term measured move projection ….
this long term level on the Transports is going to be REALLY interesting. HANG ON!
the FX market is the biggest market in the world w/ trillions of dollars traded every single day … yet, that being said, based on nothing more than math we can derive a nice pattern/ level to go long or short. I think that is kind of cool …
where to start? I like to think of PERS-D.
P= project. I use 3 targets of .618, 1.0 and 1.618
in this case we PROJECT DOWN and you can see that the orange line is 1.618*blue.
Now we get to the “E” of the PERS-D. People get confused or forget about the E. It stands for EXTENSION. key high or low swings are key and what happens when you retrace them 100 percent? do they lose their importance? no … so we can extend off those points as shown below. (I start w/ 1.27 and 1.618) as you can see, the “shelf of support” is the 1.27 extension and importantly notice where the 1.618 extension lies … right at the 1.618 price projection.
PER – time for “Mr. R” … the plain old retracement. you can spend an entire day on this subject but for now, we will keep it easy. what I REALLY REALLY like to see is the old .382 right on top of the .618. (note: .382+.618 = 1.0)
so we have PER and now the “S” who the? what the? S? S stands for structure and, specifically, polarity w/ regards to support and resistance …. do we have that?
so we get to D which is Divergence and we can check that out if it gets there … so PERS-D.
but think of the math and the 7 reasons 1.15 area will be HUGE for the fate of the EURO.
Banks are very important to the overall health of the market … key support approaching! monitor closely …
blogged about the banks a couple weeks ago here: https://bartscharts.com/2020/09/09/banks-where-are-they/ since then, they have continued to lose strength and now the Banking Index has a very important BUY pattern which should hold and the ratio of the Banks/NYSE Index has key support a little bit lower.
banks lead us up and lead us down so these areas below are KEY to strength of the overall market. bounce here/little lower on the ratio and we should stabilize. if we cut thru these levels w/out a whimper and continue lower then i would expect continued pressure down the line …
there is an old adage – the banks lead you up and lead you down. the market has blasted to old all time highs or thru them and the banks…? well, they rallied a little but have not shown the strength of the overall market, especially technology.
let’s keep a close eye on them over the coming days and weeks … important.
here’s the support charts that I posted back in the past to show the patterns at work – it has NOTHING to do w/ me. I just pull out the crayons and try to find the patterns. keep it simple.
this chart was finding support at the “first” level after a pretty liquidating sell off from 112. pay attention … a LOT of math and patterns coming together. One of the key aspects of the chart below (if you have read this far) is watching for former FAILED PATTERNS.
as you can see, that level worked and the banks rallied … I apologize for not having the SELL pattern but I never posted it. Do you see it? After not making it above the 117 level it sold off big time … and, using some math and patterns we found a support zone ….
in the chart below I show you the SELL PATTERN on the banks. YES, this is after the fact and I DID NOT post this at the time but wanted to show 1/the harmony of this index and 2/ the pattern for illustrative purposes. the other reason for posting this is to demonstrate the bank rally off the March 2020 lows has been feeble …
and as we can see, the banking index / NYSE Index is tepid, at best. really don’t think the banks are too healthy right now …
11/05/2020 – yes, some insanity is ongoing everywhere. that being said, we trust PATTERNS and tune out all the noise. In this case, we had the expected reaction to the resistance levels sighted below and, now with this rally, we have another SELL pattern coming into play. SELL THE RATIO = SELL TECH.
NOTE – WE HAVE A LOT OF THRUST AND BREAKAWAY GAPS COMING INTO THIS LEVEL. this begs “caution” so, w/ the euphoric tech rise, it’s not a stretch to expect this level to get tagged and, frankly, get blow over and fail. but, that being said, it is a SELL XLK/XLP ratio so .. .watch closely.
last week, blogged about parabolic arcs and showed how we could use geometry to POTENTIALLY (the only operative word in investing) to look for inflection points. if your new to the blog, you’ll find a chart that has been replicated a couple times over past couple weeks /months for an area or zone of resistance. in fact, here’s a print to screen where JC (www.allstarcharts.com) and I were talking about this level … we discussed it ramifications to manage risk. this level was known 4-6 weeks ago and was discussed about it being respected. the past couple days market action can tell you why this was a smart move …
if this zone held, then technology would lose some steam (so to speak) and rotation into less volatile names (staples) would occur. at my last count we had 6 different projection techniques and math coming into this area.
when it broke above it – on a daily basis – I was somewhat surprised but it’s all probability, right? so, I blogged to wait for an open and a close above our targeted area/zone. we DID NOT get an open and a close above our area so the resistance was still on .. that is what I mean waiting for a signal reversal.
signal reversal candle (bullish) = the ‘high’ of the ‘low’ candle is taken out on close
signal reversal candle (bearish) – the ‘low’ of the ‘high’ candles is taken out on close.
when we come up w/ levels, waiting for an open/close above or below a certain level is the smartest way to play it. this is what was recommended … we have a LONG time before the month ends (for the monthly candle) but we can monitor via weekly and daily …
no need to rehash old news .. the zone has been hit. you read the blog – to find out where it COULD (there’s that probability connotation again) go …
using the basics, for now, I have used measured move corrections (blue and orange arrows) and rudimentary retracement techniques to come up w/ an initial set of targets.
folks, this might not even be the top to do all this work … it COULD GET ALL REVERSED TOMORROW.
keep the erasers and pencils ready, this is going to get interesting …
MUB has very strong resistance above and look what happened the first time it hit this level.
almost a year ago, blogged about the chart below looking for the 118-121 price level to be key target zone and/or resistance before the “Muni’s” coul could move any higher. that chart is here:
the first tag of this level led to the exact same price correction as shown by the red dash arrows boxed below. this “zone” still appears to be very formative moving forward … my sense is the market isn’t going anywhere till we bust down the door and explode to the upside – else – we will see weakness if the MUB start’s to break down ….thanks for reading.
I was asked to look at NVDA and, while it hit a nice top at/around 575 I usually don’t like to do post like these because it’s a “could have, would have, should have” type of post but I wanted to show some readers the GEOMETRY working w/ NVDA.
In this case, we picked the first “major” correction and that becomes our initial arc .. folks THAT MOVE DOWN SIGNIFIED BY THE RADIUS OF THE BLUE ARROW IS THE ROCK HITTING THE WATER AND IT PUTS OFF WAVES ….those waves are, essentially, vibrations and they are governed by music and sacred geometry.
have done a ton of post on the square roots and the inverse of square roots and how they tie into the frequency of string.
when using arcs, circles the same concept of polarity applies so after the initial arc is drawn we EXPAND THE ARC by musical notes and sacred geometry ratio’s and we look back into the past to see where support or resistance (depending on the direction your going UP or DOWN) is present. In this case, we can see that expanding by musical note A of the equal octave scale of music is exactly the bottom of the price that coiled and consolidated and then lit the cans and took off!
so, w/ the polarity principle in mind – S becomes R and R become S IF the bottom of the circle (in this case) is support then the top should (doesn’t have to ..) be resistance. thus far, it has been resistance.
the other thing we need to notice is .. it’s also a 1.618 price projection …
NVDA is cooling its jets …
Now, see the AB=CD in/around 412? WATCH THAT LEVEL CLOSELY as a potential target as …. price likes to go back and tag the AB=CD if/when it blows thru that failed pattern … also, note, from a “price” correction the largest measured move correction takes us right down to the AB=CD
since I already had the circle drawn I went ahead and did the Vesica Pisces and then rolled those vectors to price .. they can also be done w/ price. remember PRICE = TIME.
we have 4 aspects of FB that show the ATH to be significant resistance.
two 1.618 extensions, key trend line resistance and a projection from the ATL and while it exceeded .618ab*cd you can see as discussed in this blog it did hit the .68179ab*cd (musical note ratio) so we can see why this level/area was big resistance. I would watch for a close below (weekly close) 250 for a significant pullback to be in place.
we had a sell off on the ratio a couple weeks ago BUT there was not follow thru and we still have the lingering level just a little higher which is the real test … again, until we have a strong weekly close above this level I’m in the conservative/flat camp as far at the NASDAQ and Technology goes …
12/3 – please take the time to reread the below, as it is rather in depth, because it explains how important the coming levels are on the USD. folks, they are HUGE!
in the chart below, you will see no labeling. if bullish we poke our head below former support and ROCKET SHIP higher from 87-88. if bearish we find support but keep going down. how far down? well, of course, below the old all time low from 2008.
this second chart is the Monthly but added the RSI. this is key … as discussed below, the RSI develops bull/bear zones and can really help w/ your analysis .. in this case we are sitting right on the cliff of support for the BULLISH ZONE. If we go below there the RSI is telling us of a potential BIG trend change … adding more fuel to the fire for the key 87-88 level!
it’s been almost 3ish years since I posted on the Dollar Index. My last post was the chart below and what’s shown are the many many time and price synergies between the current time and, well, 30 years ago. this chart nailed the high in the dollar and I’ve been watching it just seeing what type of FORM and BALANCE and PROPORTION the index would take … ummm, I still really don’t know but what’s important is the kazillion dollar COVID question – was the “high” a C or a 1. Folks, this is a HUGE deal.
so where are we ….? i don’t know where you are BUT I know that I’m somewhat confused …. is it wave 3 and we are correcting wave 4 or was that an A-B-C correction from 2008 and we are at THE MOST IMPORTANT POINT IN THE US DOLLAR INDEX right here, right now?
for the EWT purest out there, the top in 2017 around 103 is really dependent upon the correction into the 88-89 area. for the bulls, we know that wave 4 cannot overlap the end of wave 1. we don’t close below the end of 1 but we do go thru a little … man, are we cutting hairs here …? we do have the RSI transition into bullish zones but here’s all we need to know. we can’t go below 88-89 because then 4 goes below 1 and we have something else going on …..
the bears …? it’s almost a textbook zig-zag correction and the symmetry in time and price from the last BIG correction (1992-2001) is PERFECT in time and the harmonic .786 of that last big correction make the bears … hungry? The RSI resistance breakout doesn’t help BUT note how low the last rally was … again, the key is support. If we break the dashed green line … this puppy might be diving into the red sea, so to speak.
I DON’T KNOW …but here are two charts that spell out the “big picture” bear case and the bull case … either way, I suspect we’ll know soon.
now that I’m in SoCal doing a TON of SUP Surfing I really don’t spend my weekend like I used to in VA – cutting the grass, giving it fertilizer and aerating, etc … man, I had some very nice lawn going on … 🙂
I used to say, the grass just needs a stiff drink of “Scott’s and Water” …
anyhoo, took a quick look at SMG this AM and I’m going to be teaching some EWT to a fellow professional and this one popped onto the radar so I shot it over to him ….
EWT is great – when it works. that was supposed to be a joke and serious because it’s both.
just know the rules, look for corrective moves in form/balance/proportion and if your counting to may waves of sub waves of blah blah blah then put it aside and WAIT.
this count does not break any rules and is therefore a valid – subjective – interpretation. I do see that we are in a 5th wave. I also see the “why” behind the math and numbers of the most recent top.
12/9 – 5 waves up complete .. is this the 5 or 1 of 5? don’t know and don’t care. expect a pullback from here … lot’s of gaps on the way up so stand by …
11/29 – TSLA blew thru the SELL PATTERNS shown below (11/19/20). the way it just took off made me rethink and look at the chart and, as Triangles usually do, after the fact (sorry about that) it appears to have been a 4th wave triangle. most of the time, you don’t realize your in a triangle – if you ever do real time – till after the fact or in the “e” wave …all this means… TSLA is completing/ has completed a 5th wave.
the PATTERN/CHARTS saying the risk is now on the long side … a correction down to 400 ish is not out of the question.
11/19 – today, TSLA ran into the top edge of the “sell zone” and backed away … keep an eye on this one as it’s not a “no brainer” long, right now.
11/18 – today, TSLA ran into a strong sell pattern. if, we start down from here it will be a BUY but not after a potential “large” drop. a daily close ABOVE the sighted “SELL ZONE” would be continually bullish and strong.
as I’ve shown in the past on the blog, these type of parabolic – in this case appears like a rocket they built launching into space – moves ALWAYS end in a big liquidation.
I’ve used what we learned in kindergarten on how to create a circle using 3 points and have the 1800’s a being pretty significant resistance for TSLA. that target zone is roughly 15% away. folks, let’s put THAT into perspective, on Friday the stock (in a single day) was up 12% so is 15% or so that unrealistic?
great to be long but … don’t get greedy, this puppy could flip bearish on a dime …let’s face it, this is unsustainable.
note, do believe we have a good “gravity center” as the point in time/space was the reason (from a pattern perspective) for the top shown by the bold blue arrow.
watch this ratio as a key to provide support and resistance for technology names …
yes, technology and specifically the NASDAQ have been ROLLING. that being said, do see some resistance ahead and especially at the level indicated by the XLK / XLP ratio analysis. (technology/ staples) the level shown below has 6 mathematical derived levels all really really close to each other.
“should” provide resistance to this amazing run … that being said, appears like NOTHING can stop this run and this time it’s different and just buy buy buy as it’s all good …
OBTW, glad the REPO and sovereign debt crisis magically just went away …
one last, anyone else find it interesting that, w/ the NASDAQ soaring to new highs the ratio of the XLK/XLP is “barely” at the 50% level. if we had broad participation across the board wouldn’t this (the ratio) be making new highs?
can’t believe it’s been since mid-april since I posted about the market. at the time, I spied a triangle forming which proved to be wrong and it broke down and the market has continued it’s advance. humbling for sure .. when I was working up the triangle thesis I came up w/ the level that’s shown below but, honestly, I shrugged it off. “it’s not going to go all the way down there, I thought .. ” but I do remember saying, “if it could get down there, then what a perfect spot to short the market.”
folks, we are there … don’t hold me to it BUT I have around 12 reasons that this is HUGE support for the XLP/NYA ratio. don’t need to go back over the importance of this ratio … for a summary when ratio goes up risk is off and when ratio goes down risk is on. UP = bad equities. DOWN = good equities. so support should mean bad equities.
put/call ratio at an extreme, sentiment at an extreme and MONSTER support on the XLP/NYA ratio. probability says support holds and equities top and start back down … all for now. let me know if you have any questions.
disclaimer: this is ALL probability but we now have a very well defined street sign. the market COULD blow right thru the level below and it’s a rocket ship takeoff higher … that is also a probability.
so, play it safe … if it bounces strongly in / around this area then short BUT if it closes on, say a weekly basis, below the defined target area w/ conviction then be long. but for NOW, would wait and see which way she goes. hope this helps.
from a wave perspective believe we have a little higher to go for a target of 60-64 and if that is taken out then 77-80. the math of the current high (59.35) is working out so this could be it also … from a wave perspective the current high is 1.618 and exactly 1.732 of wave 3 … I’m labeling this current move as the final waves of 5. a move higher into the shown target zone should do it for now …
long term BUY targets being hit on the commodity ETF DBA
the first target zone we have been watching for a LONG time was hit on the DBA ETF last week. note, we also have other targets in the 12.70′ ish area but, as far as long term targets being hit – DBA has hit them. a low risk BUY in today’s climate.
note, when looking at the composition of the DBA ETF, discovered that the largest holding at 14% is CLTL or an inverse bond fund. Interesting … other than that we have the typical coffee, soybean, corn, sugar, cocoa, wheat, cattle and hogs … not that much volume but if your not a futures player then this is an opportunity to get a broad basket of commodities in your portfolio.