Oracle Sell Pattern in/around 53-56 updated from December 2014 updated 04/01/2018

04/01/2018 – update to ORCL chart below.  Looks like it wanted to go up and finish the ‘long term’ projection.  we have a monthly signal reversal candle as of Thursday so this one could very well be cooked for now.  Still have the upper area for targets but risk is to the downside.  Now, I have no idea what fundamentally happened to cause such a sell off. What I can say is that almost 4 years ago these NUMBERS and this PATTERN were forecasted to cause a top/resistance. So far, they have.

I have NO IDEA what will happen next .. sometimes they work, sometimes they don’t. (the PATTERNS)  Just manage risk and train your mind that it’s all probability.

Also, the second chart is using some of the musical properties of  this move. As you can see, the .886 and .841 retracement levels nailed the low in 2002.  From here, we can use ‘musical math’ and denote 1/X where x= .841 and .886 respectively.  Those numbers (1.1892 and 1.122) are the ratio’s of notes from the equal octave scale of music. As you can see, they were present at the completion of the ‘basic’ projections.

Lastly, an extremely powerful technique shown to me by my mentor and friend Michael Jenkins (www.stockcyclesforecast.com) shows subdividing the signal reversal or DNA of the low candles and projecting up. As you can see, the first projection didn’t work but the second one nailed the high very nicely.

Again, no idea what’s going to happen from here BUT certainly can make the case for a nice correction to come in ORCL.

Bart

 

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September 25, 2017 – trust me, back in December 2014 I didn’t have a clue if 53-56 would ever be hit … target area has been hit and I have no earthly idea what the fundamentals are driving this stock or not … watch the MONTHLY close on this one. If we get a MONTHLY SRC, then we could have a pretty big top in ORCL.

Bart


December 2014 – target appearing on ORCL.

ORCL Monthly

ORCL Monthly

GE for a friend … let me know if you have any questions UPDATE: 03/31/2018

03/31/2017 – I like the .786 level in/around 10.95-11.56.  Note the percentage change from the 2000 high (-64.69%) and how that same percentage change is present now right at the .786 retracement.  We are at 40+ years low on the RSI and some overlapping ratio’s.  It’s do for a very nice bounce.

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12/7/2017 – see below. it’s pretty darn busted up …

Read More

NASDAQ – heads up, big target hit UPDATE – Island Reversal Present on Daily

03/20/2018 – heads up, sure looks like an island reversal present on the NASDAQ monthly.

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not only do we have the 1.618 extension from 2000-2002 being hit but we also have a 1.27 AB=CD from the all time low and a 3.618 WX=YZ all being hit today. this ‘should’ be pretty significant resistance.

a word to the wise is sufficient …

Bart

Value Line (Geometric) Index – another 10% to go? Updated 03/04/2018

target above is still out there … certainly appears feasible to go up and tag it ….604-614 is the zone.

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STOXX Banks for a friend overseas …UPDATE 05/29/2018

05/29/2018 – well, it is certainly not looking good in Europe and, as I just posted, we could certainly be on the verge of a contagion.

Contagion: the ready transmission or spread as of an idea or emotion from person to person.   “A contagion of fear” is what we are talking about …

So, you can see we have completed a ‘pattern’ in the 112 area BUT the candles are huge coming into this level so … expect this to give way but for right now, this is a very important line in the sand.

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04/03/2018 – well, after roughly a year, the consolidation broke to the downside and as crazy as it seems, the triangle thesis is still a probability which is, to say it lightly, pretty darn bearish. So, would expect polarity come into play and former support becomes resistance. If we get back above that support around 126-127 then we’ll continue to evaluate. For now, that’s the resistance line in the sand where support now becomes resistance. Good grief … let me know if you have any questions.  Man, that took a while to break down!

10/21/2017 – continues to consolidate. at present long term/large triangle thesis is still in play. key level remains 114.18.

*** important development. on the daily chart below a very ‘nice’ BUY pattern is appearing a little lower. IF this PATTERN FAILS THEN perhaps this will cause further weakness in STOXX and start to resolve the consolidation that has been going on for 6 months …

 

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08/05/2017 – recent strength appears to want to take out the 139.67 high. However, the key levels still remain as shown below.  A DAILY CLOSE above 144.28 will make me rethink scenario below. Hope this helps …

Bart


 

07/01/2017 – STOXX banks rallied into the target zone to keep the triangle (monthly) thesis alive.  key levels indicated below on STOXX Banks and also the STOXX / US Banking Index. Hawk these levels for strength or weakness.

Be well my friends … Bart

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the KEY here is are we finishing a triangle and this latest leg up represents the final sequence (e) of a,b,c,d,e … the relationship that is giving me a ‘hint’ that this might be the case is the fact that the e is representing .618 of b-c (a common relationship in triangles)  on the charts, that is the green line w/ .618 to the right of the green line.

also the ratio of SOXX banks / US Banks is presented. just because a sector might outperform on a relative strength basis does not mean it will go UP because it’s outperforming.  in this case, it could mean it goes down slower … or, this move up is complete and US banks to outperform.  however, because of the long term downtrend in STRENGTH of STOXX vs US Banks would monitor this closely.   A continued increase and movement in STOXX vs US Banks ALONG with a consolidation or a breakout of the blue shaded box shown on STOXX Banks charts could mean important and notable strength has developed.  Monitor the ratio for clues ..

Hope this helps and thanks for asking and visiting the site .. let me know if you have any questions.

Bart

 

Oracle Sell Pattern in/around 53-56 updated from December 2014 updated 04/01/2018

04/01/2018 – update to ORCL chart below.  Looks like it wanted to go up and finish the ‘long term’ projection.  we have a monthly signal reversal candle as of Thursday so this one could very well be cooked for now.  Still have the upper area for targets but risk is to the downside.  Now, I have no idea what fundamentally happened to cause such a sell off. What I can say is that almost 4 years ago these NUMBERS and this PATTERN were forecasted to cause a top/resistance. So far, they have.

I have NO IDEA what will happen next .. sometimes they work, sometimes they don’t. (the PATTERNS)  Just manage risk and train your mind that it’s all probability.

Also, the second chart is using some of the musical properties of  this move. As you can see, the .886 and .841 retracement levels nailed the low in 2002.  From here, we can use ‘musical math’ and denote 1/X where x= .841 and .886 respectively.  Those numbers (1.1892 and 1.122) are the ratio’s of notes from the equal octave scale of music. As you can see, they were present at the completion of the ‘basic’ projections.

Lastly, an extremely powerful technique shown to me by my mentor and friend Michael Jenkins (www.stockcyclesforecast.com) shows subdividing the signal reversal or DNA of the low candles and projecting up. As you can see, the first projection didn’t work but the second one nailed the high very nicely.

Again, no idea what’s going to happen from here BUT certainly can make the case for a nice correction to come in ORCL.

Bart

 

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September 25, 2017 – trust me, back in December 2014 I didn’t have a clue if 53-56 would ever be hit … target area has been hit and I have no earthly idea what the fundamentals are driving this stock or not … watch the MONTHLY close on this one. If we get a MONTHLY SRC, then we could have a pretty big top in ORCL.

Bart


December 2014 – target appearing on ORCL.

ORCL Monthly

ORCL Monthly

Disney (DIS) looks like a high level triangle has formed and now (or soon) ready to move higher …

05/16/2018 – with the past couple of days thrust, let’s call the triangle complete and, therefore, over the next couple days/weeks/months expect the ATH of DIS to be taken out …. that being said, triangles tend to occur in 4th waves so a much larger pullback will occur after this run to new ATH.

this analysis is wrong IF we lose low 90’s to the downside for now.

Bart


 

03/17/2017 – well, I just went thru the Disney content below and, amazingly enough, most (if not all) the levels held as support and resistance BUT it appears these levels have formed a big old 30+ month triangle.  Amazing, this puppy topped in August of 2015!

so, the classic triangle is 5 waves labeled a-b-c-d-e.  “Would like to see here or a little lower hold and then start back up for new highs on Disney in the coming months. a close below (on a monthly basis) or lower trendline would make this analysis suspect.

a much more bullish count is potentially shown below.

bottom line is this appears to be a classic triangle w/ 5 waves a-b-c-d-e and ‘should’ move higher upon ‘e’ resolving here or perhaps a little lower

 

09/09/2017 – Disney is getting some attention of late and it’s been a while since I blogged on this American Icon.

Here’s an update:

  • DIS monthly
    • Note, the technique used to find resistance and support w/ the Adam’s pitchfork. When using the pitchfork, sometimes (it’s an art not a science) we take the 3rd point of the pitchfork all the way down (or up) to the low (or high) price forming the geometry. You can see that the pitchfork medium (blue center line) caused the resistance.
    • Now, it certainly looks like Disney (DIS) should go higher after this pullback.  I LOVE it when PATTERNS smack right into Square root targets which are also a square number 9*9 = 81.
      • watch 81 ish as a level of support to begin another leg up on DIS. if we break that second blue line medium fork area then something is really wrong
  • DIS daily
    • note, the market went right up and closed the gap perfectly … it then completed an AB=CD (dashed black line) and has rallied IN A 3 WAVE SEQUENCE … EACH MOVE THUS FAR HAS BEEN 3 WAVES AND, NOTE, THIS CURRENT WAVE IS 3 WAVES (FROM 116 TO 96) … ALL 3 WAVES CAN BE SETTING UP FOR A TRIANGLE (POTENTIALLY) SO THIS AREA HIGHLIGHTED 93-96 WILL TELL US A BUNCH.  If we lose this area to the downside (weekly close below the area w/ thrust perhaps) then we’ll open up the 81 level.

DIS definitely under pressure, next couple days/weeks should resolve where we are …

Have a good weekend, off to paddle board.

B

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I know, shorting Walt Disney World ($DIS) is probably un-american but just calling it like I see em’ …

Below you’ll find a chart showing the parabolic lift off of $DIS.  Note, the Adams Pitchfork.  I made the lower point equal to the all time low and that provides the geometry for “copy” and then “pasting” the pitchforks on top of each other.  You’ll see the median line tagged the high … pretty cool technique to trade/in around.  Also, take note of 4.236 (1.618^3) right around the top. It’s an old axiom that bull or bear runs “like” to go 4.236of the initial impulse move.  We’ve done that …

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next you’ll see the pretty darn big gap that $DIS left as it tagged it’s all time highs and then fell. The blue rectangle is the area still remaining to be potentially be filled.  you can see that it went up on Friday and filled a little bit of the gap, but not all of it.

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the next hart you’ll see a very nice “sell” pattern that completed on Friday.

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Happy Hunting and thanks for reading …

Bart

Molly Hatchet and the Bond Complex – flirting with disaster? Update 04/01/2018

04/01/2018 – update

note, the prices bounced nicely off the long term Pitchfork (extended 1.27) and w/ the RSI buried deeply, this ‘bounce’ might surprise some as we work off an extreme oversold (monthly) condition since 1985. I still hold out that we have a MAJOR top in the Bond Complex and this is an opportunity to go long rates (short bonds) in the coming weeks.

this ‘trend line’ is the line in the sand w/ regard to bonds and the rate complex.

Bart

 

02/10/2018 – update.

note: a potential H+S MONTHLY top for the long bond along w/ a crucial adams pitchfork trendline make the area we are at RIGHT NOW crucial for the bond complex moving forward.

is Molly Hatchet – Flirting With Disaster – on the horizon?

R-482701-1348596305-2972.jpeg.jpg

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here’s the daily chart updated showing target area was hit …

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06/20/2017 – tracking SLOWLY up to the desire short zone.  IF (the big IF) we are correct here the next move down is going to be very very strong.  Hold onto your hats.   A hint that the ‘thesis’ is wrong is if we blow thru the highlighted area.  We shouldn’t …

Bart

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1/21/2017 – would really like this to start back up again into the areas highlighted.  could be the trade of the year …

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sent to this to Andy and the gang over the weekend …let me know if you have any questions.

Bart

TLT Update: Long Duration Treasury Bonds Deeply Oversold

should have done this one before – not sure why I didn’t …

so, the NASDAQ looks unstoppable … we have sell patterns on the DOW, the S&P, the NYSE Index but the NASDAQ is moving into new territory and it sure looks like finishing/close to finishing a 5 wave sequence.  So, why not do the XLP / NASDAQ?  Honestly, I don’t know why I haven’t done this one before. I’ve always looked at the NYSE Index or the S&P versus the XLP. One would think that the high flyer would show tendencies to pivot UP or DOWN based on risk on/off mindset by the institutions, right?

so, here’s the XLP / NASDAQ and it paints a nice picture.

of note:

  • XLP/NASDAQ
    • note the AB=Cd pattern that is completing and showing a bullish hammer as of this past Friday’s close.
    • RSI – been pegged at the lowest levels since 2000 and has finally showed some bullish divergence.
    • we are BELOW the .786 retracement BUT we are not at new all time lows (vice the NASDAQ that is all all time highs)
    • there is another level for targets lower (.886 retracement and 1.618 extension) if this level gives away …
  • XLP/NASDA w/ the NASDAQ overlaid and INVERTED
    • NOTE – EVERY major pivot higher/lower has been at a pivot of this ratio .

Folks … don’t get complacent as there is a very large probability that the next move  – across the board – is down.

Just calling it like I see it …

Happy Father’s Day!

Bart

XLP / S&P 500 – support here is justified and, perhaps, a signal of volatility to come?

there is a different look/feel to the XLP / SPX versus the XLP / NYA. If you look at the chart below, you’ll see we did a pretty tight consolidation from 2011-2016 in the XLP / SPX.  It’s a ‘perfect’ sell pattern at “C” that complete and then the ratio fell out of the sky.

i’m curious at the lack of follow thru w/ regards to the S&P 500 (not making new highs like Russell, NASDAQ, etc) so I decided to take a look at this ratio instead of NYSE as the denominator.

as you can see we have some key observations:

  • take the time to study ‘past’ retracements as ‘sometimes’ the same ratio/vibration (remember that’s all it is – vibration) is present. In this case we have the .707 retracement level present at the high and now here at the lows
    • 2
    • Square Root of 2= 1.4142
    • 1/1.4142 = .707
  • the harmonic 1.27 is present in that 1.27*AB = CD
    • 1.618
    • square root = 1.27
  • note the blue measured move arrow from the XLP inception in 1998 is present in this correction
  • the MONTHLY RSI is at the lowest level since the inception of the XLP and this ratio of XLP/SPX
  • THE TIME OF THE CORRECTIVE MOVES OF THE RATIO ARE EQUAL

what am i trying to get at? nothing more than I’m very cautious of any further up move in the markets (for now) .. .historically, when the XLP starts to perform it signals a ‘risk off mindset’ of the big institutions and volatility starts to rise …

while I DO NOT think the bull market is over by any stretch, I do think that another move lower is in tune (note the music reference :)) w/ the form, balance and proportion we are used to seeing from a corrective nature.

Bart

Crude Oil Update .. sorry, sent this out to some dudes but didn’t blog it (not sure why) – big pattern complete

sorry that i didn’t send out the charts below via my blog .. honestly, I think I just forgot and then went on some travel …big thing here is we hit an important high a week or so ago based on TIME so this could be a very important top in crude.

honestly not sure if we have completed a 4 ( if YES we have  BIG MOVE COMING lower) or an end to a bullish bounce and we are correcting to buy ..

either way, this should do it for crude for a while at least. will be watching and, again, apologize for not blogging earlier.

as an FYI, the charts are real time they were just sent out via email …

let me know if you have any questions.

Bart

this is the update as of 06/001/2018:

GWPH Greenwich Pharma is using Cannabis for this Lennox Gastaut Syndrome.

This company is about to launch and AMAZING ‘treatment’ called Epidiolex for Lennox-Gastaut syndrome, a rare, severe and difficult to treat form of childhood onset epilepsy.  These children and their families are suffering thru up to 200 seizures a day.  By dropping a couple of the Epidiolex drops into their mouth they are seeing amazing results.

Guess what – thee amazing treatment is derived from Cannabis. Period.

I am looking for a risk controlled entry for a long term buy and hold.  The company is doing amazing things spinning out over 150 different chemical properties of this amazing plant based medicine.

No, we don’t have a bunch of kids baked while watching their Ipads … this is a natural based science relief …

Right now, we’ve completed some pretty hefty patterns so I’m looking for any pullback to BUY.  Would really like to get this back to the ‘old breakout level’ for a BUY … note the MONSTER GAP on a monthly.

Pharma can be very wild based on FDA approval and Adverse Events and blah blah … but believe this company is onto something and the future is very bright.

Bart

Technology vs Staples (XLK / XLP) Ratio Analysis

I like Ratio Analysis … I also like to work w/ the patterns on these charts.

If you have been reading my blog for a while, you know that I ‘try’ (the operative word) to not read, watch or listen to any ‘other’ financial news commentary. Yes, there are people that I follow and am very interested in what they see/say (most are the same as me) but I can tell you that NONE of the people I follow or read are fundamental analysts.  Not that they don’t do good work (they do) I’m just not smart enough to understand the information they put out. For me – it’s much easier to use crayons, some geometry and PRICE and TIME and PATTERNS to try to manage risk.  The ‘why’ and the ‘blah blah’, again to me, is just noise.

so ratio analysis:

X/Y – if the chart goes up then X is stronger.

X/Y – if the chart goes down then Y is stronger.

X = XLK (technology = risk on) the Y = XLP (staples = risk off)

XLK/XLP – going up w/ strength. the big guys (institutions) aren’t showing a ‘risk off’ mindset.  the XLK/XLP ratio move up is the LARGEST SINCE THE LOW OF 2002.

So, for me, while we might shuck and jive and perry left, perry right until we have a monthly bearish signal reversal candle I can’t join the camp of the sky is falling and all that jazz.

Bart

DB (Deutsche Bank) House of Cards?

05/29/2018 – if you search ‘DB’ on my site you’ll see I’ve been watching this company for the past couple years.  Why?  Well, they are the largest holder of derivatives in the world and have so many ‘tangling alliances’ w/ the major global banks that they contain some serious systemic risk.

folks, this is getting really ugly … the probability of a contagion in Europe is growing larger every day.

watch the global flow of funds in the coming days … the ‘big money’ is going to have to go somewhere and, quite frankly, a big old position in the DOW 30 isn’t necessarily a bad thing is it?  Yes, were going to get some global equity hits over the coming days weeks but ultimately, watch VOLUME and look for measured moves … but, for now and perhaps the foreseeable future stay out of Europe.

will update as we continue along …sheesh, the Eurozone is a hot mess.

Bart

IBM over the weekend for @seeitmarket

Is IBM Stock Heading Into The Buy Zone Again?

certainly appears to be setting up for a nice one …

Bart

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