8/28/2016 – looks like it’s going to carve out 5 waves and then a 3 wave pullback and then another leg down …so a 5-3-5 (a-b-c) correction to be BOUGHT. the reason I believe this is because we had a 5 wave move UP against the POUND here …
guess we’ll see, anyway, here’s the 4 hour chart updated. note, the “target zone” worked pretty well.
for you Sunday thought of the day … why, if you look below, did ALL THE WORLD stopping going LONG the EURO vs the GBP and, basically, reverse their emotional feelings about the EUR vs the GBP and flip the switch?
I would submit – vibrations my friends. vibrations which are governed by music. I digress.
want to take a little time this AM to describe the set up coming in on the EURGBP:
- from the all time high, we are coming up into the .618 retracement along w/ the AB=CD projection
there is a lot of thrust coming into this level – but if we break it down into a lower time frame compression we have a very balanced move in form, proportion and balance:
- fundamental frequency: think of a rock hitting the water. how high, how heavy and how high all take into account the depth of the rocks penetration into the water and the corresponding waves which will be produced. to calculate the fundamental frequency targets we use the initial impulse high and low and we get targets (shown by dashed red and purple lines) of .80378 and .86847.
- Note the purple dashed line target when it was hit at 3. Caused big resistance.
- Also, if we PROJECT the initial move labeled 1 and multiply it’s length by PI (3.142) we get right into .87386.
- I am showing a 1,2,3,4,5 (big numbers) and also showing minor 1,2,3,4,5 in the 5th leg.
- also, note the symmetry of the moves shown by big wave 3=5 and minor 1=5.
- Last, a 1.27 extension of the last swing into the .618 retracement.
also, believe this is a countertrend move .. either a wave B or 2 correction coming.
THESIS: short EUR vs GBP in/around 8707-8746. risk 50 pips …normal corrections have been roughly 400-500 pips. Thus a RR of 8:1 or 10:1.
the ratio projections shown below nailed the high (recent) in SBUX
we now find the ratio sitting on a cliff of support – above the support SBUX should start to improve.
below the cliff of support then expect SBUX to continue it’s downward slide.
it’s not about the ACTUAL prices in SBUX and Coffee but the relative strength of coffee prices and SBUX.
let me know if you have any questions.
here’s the cliff of support for the future on a weekly chart:
Update 10/30/2015 – $SBUX continues to move in a parabolic fashion. However, as you’ll note below, we have hit the first target on the SBUX/Coffee Futures ratio. There are still some higher targets a little above this BUT this run in SBUX should be coming to an end. With that in mind, would recommend waiting for a signal reversal candle (weekly basis) before attempting any short. Also, the red log trend line, coming in around 55-57, is a good benchmark to watch for a weekly close below. HAPPY HUNTING ….
one would think that IF the price of coffee is going up THEN it would have an impact on SBUX operations?
first chart – SBUX – candles and Coffee Futures – blue line
I don’t see much of a correlation …..
How about, SBUX RELATIVE STRENGTH COMPARED TO COFFEE FUTURES? THE RATIO OF SBUX/COFFEE?
now, that is better … it’s not the price of coffee alone but the relative strength of SBUX versus the price of coffee – using ratio analysis we can see that this is what’s causes the movements in SBUX. SBUX/COFFEE is a good indicator to manage risk …
Is the ratio hitting some targets? Ummmm, yes.
so, SBUX is taking off parabolically …this never ends well and we have some very strong targets coming in on the RATIO. Certainly keep an eye on this ratio as it’s pretty important to future directional moves in SBUX.
08/27/2016 – looks like we are still “squaring out” the date of the inception of the S&P500 w/ this past weeks weekly close.
again, this is not “bearish” or “bullish” but a heads up that at “square outs” stuff happens … go w/ the flow.
rock on, ok?
PATTERNS … work and they fail.
PATTERNS tell us of possible inflection points.
PATTERNS also tell us very important areas of interest to trade around ..
What if .. what if the PATTERN on the cash S&P has finished or is very close to finishing a sell signal?
That would mean we are at major resistance and the market “should” respect a PATTERN that has its genesis from it’s all time low 50 years ago….
IF the market DOES NOT respect this area and goes higher then we are really really really strong and I wold look to go LONG after a monthly or weekly close above these levels.
so, don’t shoot me- I got tons of crap this weekend for posting about the Utilities Pattern hitting (seems to be working so far) and I’m just mentioning that a “classic” AB=CD PATTERN is pretty much done on the S&P.
Pay Attention ….
PS – tons of cycles are hitting this week so just go w/ the flow and catch the wave that should begin soon. No idea which way it goes, it’s just a pattern. TRADE IT or NOT.
PS — also, the you’ll note the SK&P was BORN on March 4, 1957 or 21708 days ago. 21708/10 = 2170.8. Were only 10 points away from that price … if we close below 2171,2172,2173 etc. in the coming days the market has SQUARED OUT PRICE and TIME. “Stuff” usually happens around those occurrences. An FYI …
08/20/2016 – I did a talk for the MTA, a while ago, and I called it “musical polarity.” while the polarity principle is, in and of itself a KEY and POWERFUL technical analysis tool, many of us only use “horizontal” support and resistance to look for overhead supply (fundamental term) and stuff like that.
if we orient our polarity view to the natural plane of the chart (x,y) axis then some very powerful techniques are unleashed. in this case, the concept of support at the bottom of a circle drawn w/in the plane of the largest correction on the chart diameter will lead to resistance at the top of the circle.
the “ancients” were extremely intelligent people who used geometry to explain everything .. they used, almost exclusively, the circle, the square and the angles emminating from them to teach advance concepts on the nature of nature. (that sounded cool)
so, IF everything is vibration (I believe to the core of my being it is) THEN the energy vectors along the plane of the circle (x,y and yes z) hold a special place, so to speak.
so, I have ZERO idea if this is “a” top of HD or not. and, I really could give a shit …just showing you that HD hit a top of THE circle defining it’s move.
- If your a fundamentalist – congratulations that makes you really smart – then just delete this like you do all “voo doo” charts. No skin off my back…
- If your a typical technician, you’ll NEVER see this type of geometry because you have 50,000 indicators on your chart (which obtw are probably all LAGGING price/time) so clear your screen and just chill and let the chart speak to you …
- If your a “chartist” then grab your crayons and protractors and STUDY the patterns that are present on the charts and do the work .. the math is there.
If your looking to make money on shorting HD THEN this entire philosophical diatribe is dead wrong w/ a WEEKLY close above the top of the circle …
06/09/2016 – so, the top of the circle and the math appears to have worked on targets for HD.
- again, have ZERO idea about the fundamentals
- just drew a circle w/ the radius equal to the biggest corrective move in it’s history
- obtw, the bottom of the circle is support in/around zero price so the top of the circle
- the blue arrows are the “measured moves” of HD throughout it’s history
- the “geometry” of the Adams Pitchfork from the IPO and all time low was simply copy/pasted and the median line stopped the rise in it’s track
learn to use crayons, it’s much easier than reading a 100 page document on HD and it’s fundamental stuff
believe this could be a significant top for HD …
Well, every other pattern level has been defeated so why not the one’s shown below? We have a bunch of math coming in …130-135.
08/17/16 – so we have a gap down today. cool, whatever … a pattern was present and it POTENTIALLY worked this time. key here is to go big picture and go “LOG” chart … as you can see we have shown the propensity to negate the trend from 2011 by the breakdown today but we are still “far off” from a trend change .. not saying it won’t go much lower (it could) or that it wont seek the low 60’s but for now it’s working and if you played w/ LOW move your stop to entry and forget about it …
here’s what happened today .. pretty nice bounce back at the end of day trading but some seriously liquidation.
will try to keep up w/ this one, cheers for now.
you wait, patiently, for opportunities to appear which “change the game.”
as many of you have been following me know, the swing patterns that we watch take some time to develop … in this case a thesis is made for the “trade of the year” to be SHORT EURO vs USD.
what do we have working?
here you go …
note, the MATH stopped the decline of the EURO and we are carving out – almost exactly – the same pattern that appeared at the all time low of the EURO after it was introduced. if you take the time to measure the moves …(I have) you’ll find the swings are almost exact. the LAST TIME the EURO did this it EXPLODED in a multi-year advance that crushed the dollar. is that going to happen again …?
have no idea … but the “rule” from the great land of the CMT is that the consolidated triangle breaks in the direction of the trend going into it …so, in this case, the EURO “should” breakdown against the USD. As shown from the lows in early 2000 .. it certainly didn’t do that. but here’s the daily … and remember the triangle has 5 legs labeled a,b,c,d,e ..
here’s the dollar index pattern:
note we have an AB-CD present, a .618/.786 overlap and a 1.612 extension present. THIS COULD BE THE SUPPORT TO CATAPULT THE DOLLAR HIGHER …just a pattern.
it’s just a pattern but the probability that we are in the final ‘e’ leg of the 1.5+ year consolidation of the EURO is high … this is POTENTIALLY a monster move coming ….
let me know if you have any questions …
PS – here’s the geometry of the consolidation .. one line oriented w/ price and time and 90 degree angles created this trend line. (I am writing this before I draw it – cheers)
IF you take the time to study this – and why not if you subscribe to my blog you’ll find that MOST if not ALL the major pivots occurred around the construction of this simple square.
Here’s a great picture from Mr. Joe Dubs:
here’s the monthly square:
again, only one line created these trend lines and it was the low to high and then 90 degree angles. folks, take the time, defy human nature and prove it to yourself …look at the geometry present.
the other thing you can do, if you REALLY want to dig deep is to use the box height and widths to create the time cycles present in the EURO or any security. but I’m tired, it’s late …just think A^2+_B^2=C^2. perhaps there was something to Pythagoras and the Music of The Spheres …or not.