03/25/2017 – well looks like it went up into the zone discussed below. I’ve labeled the extension targets as 1.732 (square root of 3), 1.68179 (note the closes) a musical note and the projection was 1.27AB = CD. 1.27 is the square root of 1.618.
as you can see, it sold off but DID NOT give a weekly signal reversal so continue to monitor. Often times, it “likes” to go back to the level of the first failure around 60 as shown.
good weekend to you ..
03/25/2017 – appears we have some stalling at new all time highs. below is a monthly w/ the fundamental frequency calculated (FFreq) showing the 64-64 area to resistance. if we pull back from here, a logical first stop and perhaps a buy is around the old all time highs in the early 2000’s.
now, below you will see the weekly chart from 2009. lot’s of stuff going on so I’ll break it down:
- blue triangles shows us a POTENTIAL 3 drive to a top pattern. note the time symmetry … very nice
- the blue arrow lines show the AB=CD
- the dashed green lines show another AB=CD (that one goes up to 66 but it’s pretty much there)
- note the horizontal red line – that’s the old all time high
- on the right side of the chart, note the near perfect price symmetry
so, I can see “why” it’s stopped here. a pullback is to be expected but if we break down below the old all time highs on say, a weekly candle, then something might also be up and a bigger move lower could be in the works.
the BIG PATTERN up in/around 72-74 is still in play, but perhaps not quite yet?
10/20/2016 – it’s hard being a musical chartist. inherently you find yourself a contrarian (which you really aren’t) because you just see patterns and music and harmony w/ form, balance and proportion. yes, I get it, MSFT is all the rage because it got to new time highs. but who was ‘talking’ about it when it was about to complete an EXACT pattern based on music and geometry (see below) in/around 13-14 dollars. nobody …also, note, the chart below showing the BUY was “real time” in that, as my faithful readers know, I try really hard to not “should have” or “would have” or “could have” on the chart ….
so, w/ the monster gap up to new highs that opens up the 72-74 area for the next pattern.
note the strength in MSFT .. .618 from Monthly charts (projections) usually cause more resistance.
Here is the BUY on MSFT – some amazing harmony, form, proportion and balance. Just take one second and look at that chart … no idea what is going on w/ their fundamentals and, it was quite the “crazy” time for it to find support during the 2009 thump. But … a PATTERN is a PATTERN is a PATTERN. so, here’s the BUY on MSFT issued in March 2009.
so, where are we now?
we are approaching the .618 from the all time high on decreasing volume and an overall market that “should” be correcting. Time to take some off and get ready for the next wave …in my humble opinion. (note – 50-52 is still a target.)
03/23/2017 – note this pattern on the KIWI.
Certainly looks like it ‘wants’ to go down and tag the level shown. last night I blogged about “cotton” banging into the first portion of the pretty big gap and it appears (please see below) that the “Milk Non-Fat Futures” has completed an upward correction and will plumb the lows again.
also, was taught a few years ago .. to watch the M and W’s on the RSI. This PATTERN when broken “usually” leads to some pretty powerful moves. I’ve highlighted past M’s in yellow below on the KIWI. See the M pattern setting up right now?
so, the thesis is we have a move lower in cotton, non-fat milk and that will cause the KIWI to move lower into the zone depicted below.
this thesis doesn’t even begin to hold water UNTIL the EEM stops rising – which could make it problematic. as shown, you can see how we are banging right into the ‘biggest’ measured move UP since 2011 (purple dashed arrow) and were also playing the polarity game. (S becomes R and R becomes S). Also, note we have overlapping .618/.786 at 42.
((sqrt 27.66)+1)^2 = 39.17 so we are half way around the circle at these levels.
it’s all probability, choose your poison and then choose a stop.
In New Zealand, there is roughly 7 sheep to every person. They have a lot of sheep and sheep = cotton, correct? The country has the highest density of sheep per capita in the world. However, this year has seen the sheep numbers fall to their lowest level in 75 years.
Around 1987 farmers to took to dairy farming and that overtook conventional sheep farming which until then had been the backbone of the New Zealand Economy. Take a look at the chart below … at most inflection points in Cotton Futures the KIWI followed suite.
As discussed above, the dairy industry is the backbone of the economy. Prices have plunged.
Below is a chart showing Class III Milk future w/ the KIWI overlaid on top of it. Note, milk futures have completed a buy pattern so prices “should” start back up and therefore KIWI can potentially find some support. Emerging Market Currencies are at an extreme low w/ regard to sentiment.
The next chart below is of Non Fat Milk futures (continuous monthly) and note the synchronization of tops and bottoms. These are the lowest prices in decades ….
Here’s the KIWI today … decimated sentiment for EM Currencies, RECORD low dairy prices, cotton hanging in there and a big old thump into very oversold bullish divergence .. it’s going to start up today or soon.
so this looks so PROMISING but when I put the EEM (Emerging Market ETF) w/ the KIWI overlaid on top of it I see a very nice symmetry BUT I also see a CLIFF OF SUPPORT that the EEM is about to fall off. OUCH ….
03/22/2017 – it just keeps going higher and higher. Ps=0 is coming .. then it will drop like a rock.
note, the trendline didn’t break and it shot higher from that level .. the band played on.
12/11: update to the update. again, still don’t know what Altria Group Inc. does. but I do know how to draw a trendline and it bounced off it and now IF it breaks below it on a daily close THEN it should go lower.
your 150 paged EBITDA, P&E, fundamental report complete in one chart. Pardon the sarcasm. Got hate mail on @stocktwits for this one also … it’s comical.
sometimes you eat the bar, and sometimes the bar eats you. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aPVLyB0Yc6I
11/4 – update. again, I don’t even know what the Altria Group Inc. does … but I do know that parabolic velocity can only hit a certain Ps=0. What the hell does that mean? Well it’s the VN diagram when fighting a high performance fighter. You see at ANY given time in a fight you have a certain airspeed, altitude and G that will give you a turn radius and turn rate. In order to NOT give up energy you wanted your sustained rate of turn/radius to stay constant …. if your going to rip the g’s on and get a really powerful turn RADIUS going then your going to give up energy…. so you better be right OR your going to have to UNLOAD and get energy back and that will make you arc like an albatross. Get it .. Ps=0 might not be the best turn rate or radius but you know that your not giving up any ENERGY.
MO … tons and tons of VELOCITY but guess what? to get that HIGH of a price and go parabolic “it” had to be all in and a certain point you ain’t got “no moe thrust” and it stops and falls.
is this the top? I have no idea, but having been in many many 2 circle and 1 circle fights you learn to SEE how your enemy is doing/reacting and this puppy ($MO) gave it ALL. It’s time to UNLOAD (go down) and get some more knots (ENERGY) up to make another run …
watching this one, a move down into high 40’s not out of the question …
first stop SHOULD BE the top of that read trend line …
spent some time in the Navy and, one time, we (two seat Tomcat) decided to “see how high we could get from sea level” off the coast of SOCAL. So, we lit the afterburners and got going pretty fast and then the pilot smoothly pulled back on the stick and very soon we were pointing 90 degrees nose high and climbing like a bat out of hell. Pretty cool … and we kept climbing and climbing and finally (you could hear the TF30 engines grasping for any air) topped out around 55K feet or so … you could see the curvature of the earth. The ECS (environmental control system) was working overtime trying to keep the cockpit pressurized and …. we simply couldn’t go any higher, even w/ the engines going FULL GRUNT AFTERBURNER, it simply stopped.
guess what happened next? we fell like a stone … just left the hands off the controls and that was it … we had exhausted the power of the Tomcat to go any further …
folks, same thing happens w/ stocks. IF you can get into a pre-parabolic move based on your decision criteria (technical or fundamental) then ride it and go w/ it …. however, once you “sense” the parabolic stage then take some money off the table. I’m going to say it again … they have NEVER ended well. and depending on the size of the motor taking you straight up – it will eventually fail. Gravity is real in both a physical and subconscious way. Subconscious? Yes, the euphoria of the monster bullish move and the despondency of the bearish move will, eventually, yin-yang you and take off in the opposite direction.
here’s MO … were either “here” now or close to being parabolic. stay tuned …
continue to make it a great week.
03/22/2017 – cotton has went up and tagged the lower boundary of a BIG GAP. “should” be pausing and pulling back …
I haven’t noticed the price of cotton shirts, underwear, what have you going up … have you? I don’t buy much anyway. But, however Cotton Futures are priced on the Exchange, you know I don’t know a thing about that. Just patterns …
Cotton’s up around 46% from levels described above. Folks, LOG percentage measured moves (extremes) work.
Cotton, who would have thunk it?
03/14/2016 – my good friend JC (www.allstarcharts.com) just blogged about cotton and it jogged my memory that 15 months ago I blogged about a low coming in cotton. (I’m good at timing, right? LOL) But, time is the key component and the PRICE level just completed the same corrective move (-75%) that represented the largest corrective move – EVER.
just saying, Cotton could be rolling w/ like Mr Toads Wild Ride …here’s updated charts:
if your an ETF player, perhaps look at LONG BAL in/around these levels and stop out below 35?
Wrong below 54.45 ….picture paints a thousand words. Two charts so here’s two thousand words.
03/22/2017 – Pound carving out a triangle and then a dump into the 1.17? Only time will tell.
12/26/2016 – still looks like we have a little more time to go into the lows. perhaps a little lower at the targets shown (?)
03/21/2017 – update
if you look at the chart below … you’ll see the blue arrow measured move from the 2002-2007 hit pretty much spot on ….
I add this to the “march” to 6200 because, well, I still think that is the target.
as for my followers – YOU know that I hate to give you the ‘could have’ and ‘would have’ and ‘should have’ w/ technical analysis …I have been pretty busy over the past month. So, I hastily sent this to a few friends around the banking index in a moment of free time….. the reason I’m showing this is two fold:
- PATTERNS are all PROBABILITY ….
- the BANKS lead us UP and they lead us down …
- I really really don’t want to show anyone the world of ‘could of’ and ‘would of’ and ‘should of’ … but do want to give some heads up ..
- just trying to help folks …
The “greatest gift is gold ” U2 ….
Use a stop.
Good night …
perhaps 5866 stops it but folks .. we have a perfect sell PATTERN at/around 6200 ish.
also, note the to cycle that got DESTROYED .. this puppy has some more juice.
short term – 3-5 pullback for a couple months then higher to tag the upper target?
anyway – here’s the picture … UP UP and AWAY.
just buy, the market will NEVER GO DOWN and IT ALWAYS GOES UP! 🙂