- basically hit the target zone we were identifying. now it gets interesting as you can see, on the daily, we have many gaps staring from this past summer. if we can break thru the 133-137 level then the gap 100-112 seems like a reasonable target for now.
our assumption is we have completed 5 big waves per the below so … could get interesting? Or, the stock will never go down, right? the market only moves up.
1/12/2017 – well if at first you don’t succeed, try again. doesn’t matter this its NFLX, in the world I live in, it’s just a ‘chart’ so here we are at it again …
well, the GAP from the former congestion area into new highs was powerful BUT note that we have been selling off since the gap and IF (the big if folks) we close back below the dashed orange trend line AND close the open gap (a gap down back below is ‘technically’ the island reversal THEN guess what things could get going to the downside. so use those levels noted below as your guide.
some key stuff:
- note the monthly
- that’s some pretty large bearish divergence
- also note, from the first move up way back when it ‘perfectly’ hit the 3.142 (PI) projection
- also note the top trend line … a daily close above that is VERY bullish but right now, banged right into it as resistance
- note the monthly ‘log’ chart
- the top trend line held price at bay (that caused the consolidation IMHO) but if we keep going that top trend line would be the next logical target
- note the daily
- see the orange dotted trendline … that’s the one to really watch for now
- I REALLY like that wave 1 up and wave 5 up are equal in PRICE and TIME
- note how wave 3 gapped rigth up to the AB=CD where wave 1=3 and then ran ….
- REALLY pay attention to the gap that was left a couple days ago – that’s the one which, if gapped down below will cause the island reversal
perhaps NFLX will kick my butt again … we’ll see.
if you look thru or have been reading my blog you’ll realize that the patterns do fail .. invariably when this occurs I’ll go back to the drawing board and come up w/ another PATTERN. check out WYNN … you never know what’s going to happen and the PATTERNS do fail. manage the risk …
$NFLX has beaten me – alot. Uncle ….
that being said, I hit erase all on $NFLX chart and took a fresh look at it … I still see 5 waves up w/ no RULES broken so the count is valid and there’s monthly bearish divergence and we are about to tag the upper long term trend line that is roughly 10 years old. I still say be careful up here but .. again … UNCLE.
but what’s the next pattern or set of target areas? No flipping idea …nope, not going to do it.
“f’it dude, let’s go bowling”
perhaps 5866 stops it but folks .. we have a perfect sell PATTERN at/around 6200 ish.
also, note the to cycle that got DESTROYED .. this puppy has some more juice.
short term – 3-5 pullback for a couple months then higher to tag the upper target?
anyway – here’s the picture … UP UP and AWAY.
just buy, the market will NEVER GO DOWN and IT ALWAYS GOES UP! 🙂
that’s what the pattern says …
don’t let your significant other know you might be shorting sex … might not work out so well.
hope there is someone special in your life.
2/13/2017 – pretty cool triangle on BIDU.
the ‘book’ says it should break down but not sure I trust the book these days … go w/ the flow I say.
patterns worked in this case – they don’t always (see UAA) but the pattern hit at 247 and the stock dropped to 90.
now we consolidate in a triangle … who knows what’s going to happen next so go w/ the flow.
just an update.
be well, do good, rock on – ok?
was on some quick travel today and saw the “twitter-verse” (read universe) rocking and rolling about BIDU. I remembered that I had done a post in November 2014 about Twitter and — believe it or not in March 2014 (almost a year ago). In March, as soon as we made the new high from July 2011 I was starting to look for a 5th wave. As you can see below, in March that was too early. Now, it did hit the target and back off roughly 30% but, ultimately, it kept plugging upward.
So, back to the drawing board, and per below came up w/ 250 as the next target. That one has held – for now – and just looked at the “after market” and she sold off roughly 10% and is trading at 195 bucks.
The “targets” that are derived are pretty good … the waves are pretty good but folks, it’s all probability. the face that we are down to 195 a year later doesn’t surprise me and the fact that 250 held (to the cent) per the work below doesn’t surprise me. And, one last, guess what? The fact that 250 got rolled over to the upside wouldn’t have surprise me either …
PICK your edge … fundamentals, basic technical analysis using moving average and oscillator stuff, flip a coin, music … it doesn’t matter. All your edge is going to give you is a higher probability of something happening than not happening … So, if it works, great. If it doesn’t, great.
Just decide how much your going to lose and that’s all that matters …
Rock on dudes and dudettes!
OBTW – check this out.
Square root: 15.81
Square root – 2 = 13.811
(13.811)^2 = 190.75
please take a look at the chart …you can’t make this shit up.
was too early on this count, as you can see below. Now, we are approaching some very stiff resistance as shown. another target is 295. all that being said, still believe we are in the 5th wave advance here ….
CLIFF NOTES: very strong probability that a 5 wave advance is complete on BIDU
Here’s the last look at BIDU working on a 188 target for wave 5: https://bartscharts.com/2013/10/21/the-ray-charles-count-on-bidu/
here’s some work that I’ve been doing on the YEN: https://bartscharts.com//?s=yen
just taking a look at the weekly RSI and, when I trained under Constance Brown she said “the market will tell you when it’s shifting, watch the RSI zones for clues.”
as you can see below … the, what I believe, multi-decade wave 5 occurred in 10/2011 and a VERY powerful advance occurred. You’ve read about my chaos w/in the YEN and how I got stopped out something like 6-8 times (I’ve tried to flush it from my memory) in around 76 ..(yes, 76! and, no one said this was going to be easy!) for what I was expecting was going to be a monstrous ride.
anyway, note how support SHIFTED up after the decades long bear trend … (see dashed green lines) and how, after this correction – which might be pretty much complete it the support and resistance has now shifted down (see dashed red lines) ….
I’m in no mans land right now .. while I believe another advance of the USD against the YEN may be forthcoming I would have really liked to see the RSI resistance SHIFT back up into the 80’s. So .. while our ‘count’ isn’t complete in this wave, I’m going to step aside and see what happens the rest of the month.
as you can see w/ the ???? it’s time to sit on my hands and see what plays out … that’s only me. you do what you want and follow our plan, as always.
folks, need to pay attention here … below you’ll find two charts:
- RATIO of $$$ / Crude Oil (continuous contract) – note the nice sell pattern that completed a couple months ago.
- now notice … we are hanging by a thread for USD to continue to weaken against Crude
- Ratio of $$$ / Crude oil (continuous contract) – note the nice correlation of the tops/bottoms in the ratio and the moves in crude (makes sense)
All I’m saying is perhaps .. crude is going to continue to strengthen – relative strengths basis – against the USD?
WATCH CLOSELY …