Oracle Sell Pattern in/around 53-56 updated from December 2014 updated 04/01/2018

04/01/2018 – update to ORCL chart below.  Looks like it wanted to go up and finish the ‘long term’ projection.  we have a monthly signal reversal candle as of Thursday so this one could very well be cooked for now.  Still have the upper area for targets but risk is to the downside.  Now, I have no idea what fundamentally happened to cause such a sell off. What I can say is that almost 4 years ago these NUMBERS and this PATTERN were forecasted to cause a top/resistance. So far, they have.

I have NO IDEA what will happen next .. sometimes they work, sometimes they don’t. (the PATTERNS)  Just manage risk and train your mind that it’s all probability.

Also, the second chart is using some of the musical properties of  this move. As you can see, the .886 and .841 retracement levels nailed the low in 2002.  From here, we can use ‘musical math’ and denote 1/X where x= .841 and .886 respectively.  Those numbers (1.1892 and 1.122) are the ratio’s of notes from the equal octave scale of music. As you can see, they were present at the completion of the ‘basic’ projections.

Lastly, an extremely powerful technique shown to me by my mentor and friend Michael Jenkins (www.stockcyclesforecast.com) shows subdividing the signal reversal or DNA of the low candles and projecting up. As you can see, the first projection didn’t work but the second one nailed the high very nicely.

Again, no idea what’s going to happen from here BUT certainly can make the case for a nice correction to come in ORCL.

Bart

 

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September 25, 2017 – trust me, back in December 2014 I didn’t have a clue if 53-56 would ever be hit … target area has been hit and I have no earthly idea what the fundamentals are driving this stock or not … watch the MONTHLY close on this one. If we get a MONTHLY SRC, then we could have a pretty big top in ORCL.

Bart


December 2014 – target appearing on ORCL.

ORCL Monthly

ORCL Monthly

GE for a friend … let me know if you have any questions UPDATE: 03/31/2018

03/31/2017 – I like the .786 level in/around 10.95-11.56.  Note the percentage change from the 2000 high (-64.69%) and how that same percentage change is present now right at the .786 retracement.  We are at 40+ years low on the RSI and some overlapping ratio’s.  It’s do for a very nice bounce.

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12/7/2017 – see below. it’s pretty darn busted up …

Read More

NASDAQ – heads up, big target hit UPDATE – Island Reversal Present on Daily

03/20/2018 – heads up, sure looks like an island reversal present on the NASDAQ monthly.

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not only do we have the 1.618 extension from 2000-2002 being hit but we also have a 1.27 AB=CD from the all time low and a 3.618 WX=YZ all being hit today. this ‘should’ be pretty significant resistance.

a word to the wise is sufficient …

Bart

Value Line (Geometric) Index – another 10% to go? Updated 03/04/2018

target above is still out there … certainly appears feasible to go up and tag it ….604-614 is the zone.

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STOXX Banks for a friend overseas …UPDATE 04/03/2018

04/03/2018 – well, after roughly a year, the consolidation broke to the downside and as crazy as it seems, the triangle thesis is still a probablility which is, to say it lightly, pretty darn bearish. So, would expect polarity come into play and former support becomes resistance. If we get back above that support around 126-127 then we’ll continue to evaluate. For now, that’s the resistance line in the sand where support now becomes resistance. Good grief … let me know if you have any questions.  Man, that took a while to break down!

10/21/2017 – continues to consolidate. at present long term/large triangle thesis is still in play. key level remains 114.18.

*** important development. on the daily chart below a very ‘nice’ BUY pattern is appearing a little lower. IF this PATTERN FAILS THEN perhaps this will cause further weakness in STOXX and start to resolve the consolidation that has been going on for 6 months …

 

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08/05/2017 – recent strength appears to want to take out the 139.67 high. However, the key levels still remain as shown below.  A DAILY CLOSE above 144.28 will make me rethink scenario below. Hope this helps …

Bart


 

07/01/2017 – STOXX banks rallied into the target zone to keep the triangle (monthly) thesis alive.  key levels indicated below on STOXX Banks and also the STOXX / US Banking Index. Hawk these levels for strength or weakness.

Be well my friends … Bart

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the KEY here is are we finishing a triangle and this latest leg up represents the final sequence (e) of a,b,c,d,e … the relationship that is giving me a ‘hint’ that this might be the case is the fact that the e is representing .618 of b-c (a common relationship in triangles)  on the charts, that is the green line w/ .618 to the right of the green line.

also the ratio of SOXX banks / US Banks is presented. just because a sector might outperform on a relative strength basis does not mean it will go UP because it’s outperforming.  in this case, it could mean it goes down slower … or, this move up is complete and US banks to outperform.  however, because of the long term downtrend in STRENGTH of STOXX vs US Banks would monitor this closely.   A continued increase and movement in STOXX vs US Banks ALONG with a consolidation or a breakout of the blue shaded box shown on STOXX Banks charts could mean important and notable strength has developed.  Monitor the ratio for clues ..

Hope this helps and thanks for asking and visiting the site .. let me know if you have any questions.

Bart

 

Oracle Sell Pattern in/around 53-56 updated from December 2014 updated 04/01/2018

04/01/2018 – update to ORCL chart below.  Looks like it wanted to go up and finish the ‘long term’ projection.  we have a monthly signal reversal candle as of Thursday so this one could very well be cooked for now.  Still have the upper area for targets but risk is to the downside.  Now, I have no idea what fundamentally happened to cause such a sell off. What I can say is that almost 4 years ago these NUMBERS and this PATTERN were forecasted to cause a top/resistance. So far, they have.

I have NO IDEA what will happen next .. sometimes they work, sometimes they don’t. (the PATTERNS)  Just manage risk and train your mind that it’s all probability.

Also, the second chart is using some of the musical properties of  this move. As you can see, the .886 and .841 retracement levels nailed the low in 2002.  From here, we can use ‘musical math’ and denote 1/X where x= .841 and .886 respectively.  Those numbers (1.1892 and 1.122) are the ratio’s of notes from the equal octave scale of music. As you can see, they were present at the completion of the ‘basic’ projections.

Lastly, an extremely powerful technique shown to me by my mentor and friend Michael Jenkins (www.stockcyclesforecast.com) shows subdividing the signal reversal or DNA of the low candles and projecting up. As you can see, the first projection didn’t work but the second one nailed the high very nicely.

Again, no idea what’s going to happen from here BUT certainly can make the case for a nice correction to come in ORCL.

Bart

 

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September 25, 2017 – trust me, back in December 2014 I didn’t have a clue if 53-56 would ever be hit … target area has been hit and I have no earthly idea what the fundamentals are driving this stock or not … watch the MONTHLY close on this one. If we get a MONTHLY SRC, then we could have a pretty big top in ORCL.

Bart


December 2014 – target appearing on ORCL.

ORCL Monthly

ORCL Monthly

Disney (DIS) looks like a high level triangle has formed and now (or soon) ready to move higher …

05/16/2018 – with the past couple of days thrust, let’s call the triangle complete and, therefore, over the next couple days/weeks/months expect the ATH of DIS to be taken out …. that being said, triangles tend to occur in 4th waves so a much larger pullback will occur after this run to new ATH.

this analysis is wrong IF we lose low 90’s to the downside for now.

Bart


 

03/17/2017 – well, I just went thru the Disney content below and, amazingly enough, most (if not all) the levels held as support and resistance BUT it appears these levels have formed a big old 30+ month triangle.  Amazing, this puppy topped in August of 2015!

so, the classic triangle is 5 waves labeled a-b-c-d-e.  “Would like to see here or a little lower hold and then start back up for new highs on Disney in the coming months. a close below (on a monthly basis) or lower trendline would make this analysis suspect.

a much more bullish count is potentially shown below.

bottom line is this appears to be a classic triangle w/ 5 waves a-b-c-d-e and ‘should’ move higher upon ‘e’ resolving here or perhaps a little lower

 

09/09/2017 – Disney is getting some attention of late and it’s been a while since I blogged on this American Icon.

Here’s an update:

  • DIS monthly
    • Note, the technique used to find resistance and support w/ the Adam’s pitchfork. When using the pitchfork, sometimes (it’s an art not a science) we take the 3rd point of the pitchfork all the way down (or up) to the low (or high) price forming the geometry. You can see that the pitchfork medium (blue center line) caused the resistance.
    • Now, it certainly looks like Disney (DIS) should go higher after this pullback.  I LOVE it when PATTERNS smack right into Square root targets which are also a square number 9*9 = 81.
      • watch 81 ish as a level of support to begin another leg up on DIS. if we break that second blue line medium fork area then something is really wrong
  • DIS daily
    • note, the market went right up and closed the gap perfectly … it then completed an AB=CD (dashed black line) and has rallied IN A 3 WAVE SEQUENCE … EACH MOVE THUS FAR HAS BEEN 3 WAVES AND, NOTE, THIS CURRENT WAVE IS 3 WAVES (FROM 116 TO 96) … ALL 3 WAVES CAN BE SETTING UP FOR A TRIANGLE (POTENTIALLY) SO THIS AREA HIGHLIGHTED 93-96 WILL TELL US A BUNCH.  If we lose this area to the downside (weekly close below the area w/ thrust perhaps) then we’ll open up the 81 level.

DIS definitely under pressure, next couple days/weeks should resolve where we are …

Have a good weekend, off to paddle board.

B

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I know, shorting Walt Disney World ($DIS) is probably un-american but just calling it like I see em’ …

Below you’ll find a chart showing the parabolic lift off of $DIS.  Note, the Adams Pitchfork.  I made the lower point equal to the all time low and that provides the geometry for “copy” and then “pasting” the pitchforks on top of each other.  You’ll see the median line tagged the high … pretty cool technique to trade/in around.  Also, take note of 4.236 (1.618^3) right around the top. It’s an old axiom that bull or bear runs “like” to go 4.236of the initial impulse move.  We’ve done that …

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next you’ll see the pretty darn big gap that $DIS left as it tagged it’s all time highs and then fell. The blue rectangle is the area still remaining to be potentially be filled.  you can see that it went up on Friday and filled a little bit of the gap, but not all of it.

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the next hart you’ll see a very nice “sell” pattern that completed on Friday.

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Happy Hunting and thanks for reading …

Bart

Molly Hatchet and the Bond Complex – flirting with disaster? Update 04/01/2018

04/01/2018 – update

note, the prices bounced nicely off the long term Pitchfork (extended 1.27) and w/ the RSI buried deeply, this ‘bounce’ might surprise some as we work off an extreme oversold (monthly) condition since 1985. I still hold out that we have a MAJOR top in the Bond Complex and this is an opportunity to go long rates (short bonds) in the coming weeks.

this ‘trend line’ is the line in the sand w/ regard to bonds and the rate complex.

Bart

 

02/10/2018 – update.

note: a potential H+S MONTHLY top for the long bond along w/ a crucial adams pitchfork trendline make the area we are at RIGHT NOW crucial for the bond complex moving forward.

is Molly Hatchet – Flirting With Disaster – on the horizon?

R-482701-1348596305-2972.jpeg.jpg

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here’s the daily chart updated showing target area was hit …

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06/20/2017 – tracking SLOWLY up to the desire short zone.  IF (the big IF) we are correct here the next move down is going to be very very strong.  Hold onto your hats.   A hint that the ‘thesis’ is wrong is if we blow thru the highlighted area.  We shouldn’t …

Bart

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1/21/2017 – would really like this to start back up again into the areas highlighted.  could be the trade of the year …

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sent to this to Andy and the gang over the weekend …let me know if you have any questions.

Bart

TLT Update: Long Duration Treasury Bonds Deeply Oversold

IBM over the weekend for @seeitmarket

Is IBM Stock Heading Into The Buy Zone Again?

certainly appears to be setting up for a nice one …

Bart

IWM … caveat emptor and check out where price hovered today in my P.S below … cool.

I’ve seen the very strong strength shown by IWM (ETF for Russell 2000) but I also see 5 waves and monthly bearish divergence. I’m not ‘sold’ on the bullish aspect of this ETF, yet.  Let’s see how it deals w/ the 2 daily butterfly patterns (bearish) that are present right in the zone of the measured move shown on the monthly …

What I can say is that IF these patterns fail this puppy will, indeed, explode.  But that monthly tells me … not so fast and be careful of the ‘no brainer’ trade being long IWM.

Bart

PS – for those of you who are geeks, like me, notice the close hovered around 161.80’s or the golden mean – 1.618. Note – our subconscious mind doesn’t worry about decimals points.

PS – 1.618 or 161.80  🙂

back at it … just got back from a week long Stand Up Surf Camp … where are we now?

amazing week in Punta Mita Mexico … after my daughter got married my wife ‘allowed’ me to take some R&R.  Worked hard for a week on my SUP skills w/ these guys: https://supnsurfretreat.com/

if you have any interest in Stand Up Paddle Surfing do this … shout out to Chris Sfor ALWAYS being patient w/ me.  If I see you out on a wave this summer I promise I’ll at least know what a line up is … can’t promise anything else. Thank you, Chris, for the push.

before that saw 3 straight weeks of travel so I just ‘checked out’ of the markets for almost a month.

came back to the charts and what do I see … a PERFECT SELL PATTERN on the S&P.  if your bearish, this is the level …

the only thing that is keeping me cautious and in a wait and see mode is the XLP/NYA ratio.  Folks, it’s in full grunt liquidation mode.  again, this ratio is a great harbinger of understanding institutional big guy mindset.  IF they are risk OFF then the ratio should be going up if they are RISK on then the ratio falls – as it is now.  note the support levels shown a little lower …until this ratio finds some stability and support I just can’t be overtly bearish….

good to be back – trust all are well.

Bart

 

 

RATIO ANALYSIS of XLP/NYSE Index – ain’t bearish folks, yet

if you’ve been following me for a while, you know I enjoy using advanced pattern recognition to ratio analysis.

for a bunch of XLP/NYSE Index analysis click here: https://bartscharts.com//?s=xlp+%2F+%24nya also here for @seeitmarket: https://www.seeitmarket.com/market-update-consumer-staples-xlp-nyse-composite-ratio-17676/

now, this most recent multi- week stock correction was ‘expected’ based on a zone of support coming in for the ratio. (see above link to read)

that being said, we did rally and now, of late, we have really started to sell off.

this means that institutional ‘mindset’ is showing ‘risk off’ or bullish market momentum.  

this ratio has picked the ‘exact’ weekly/monthly pivots since it’s inception and the tops/bottoms of 2000, 2002, 2007, 2009, etc.

I trust it … it’s falling out of the sky is telling me that, while some selling pressure might still be present, the BIG BOYS haven’t sought cover … (when the crap is hitting the fan they seek staples) so while this ratio  appears to being LIQUIDATED the big boys aren’t ducking and running for cover yet.

THESIS: consolidation/correction to occur or maybe even rally BUT we are going to see the RATIO keep falling, especially if we close below and fly thru the 7 years support zone …

sorry folks, no massive sky is falling or this is it from me … until this ratio finds BIG support and takes off like a rocket I need to remain on the bullish side of the fence … for now.  Just calling it like I see it. Honestly, DID NOT expect such a BIG sell off in the ratio.  But, guess what, that’s what its doing …

let me know if you have any questions …

Bart

PS – note the CYCLE (basic) time rolls into sometimes this month of April. And, we are in April so stand buy …

 

S&P 500 logical stopping point …

03/31/2018 – I love measured moves.  Frankly I think they are 1/ the easiest and most powerful indicators we have as technicians and 2/ one of the least used.

If you remember it’s how what we used to make an amazing buy on crude as it was plunging into it’s lows … measured moves on monthly/weekly charts is good.

in this case we are looking at the S&P 500 cash.  note, since the 2009 bull run the largest correction we’ve encountered has been 14.70% in/around 2015-2016.

if we take that SAME corrective move of 14.75% and overlay it on top of the monthly we come in around 2451.

now, if we do ‘basic’ pattern recognition work we have a perfect BUY right/in around that level.  necking down to the daily (second chart below) you can see how all the numbers are coming together in/around 2451-2467. My take, IF (the big IF) this bull market has steam, then this level ‘should’ hold and we go up nicely …

now, it’s just a pattern and DOES NOT have to work – it’s just probability folks.  that being said, trends are given life and and have life taken from them w/ failed patterns and patterns that work.

as for me, this level is 1/ the same corrective move of 14.7% and a near perfect BUY pattern as shown.  makes it interesting …

Bart

 

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