Well, we are hearing (once again) about the death of the dollar as the worlds reserve currency and all that … that will probably happen but not just yet.
Either way, we have hit a VERY important support level on the USD. Measured moves make the world go around … we hit the measured move, the long term polarity trend line and a butterfly buy. Exactly.
So, little bit of a judgment day for the US Dollar. I find it hard to “see” that the down more is over simply based on “balance, form and proportion” BUT this could be a MAJOR low in the USD. Go figure …
I’ll wait for the first BUY PATTERN to emerge and see how the dollar reacts to that …
For now, watch the downtrend line from the old high .. a breakout (daily close) above that trend line will be a good hint that probability is shifting to a big dollar low.
For now – the patterns worked – but I’m going to watch and see how this plays out.
I’m currently LONG the USDJPY via an ETF so a strong dollar doesn’t necessarily fit the USDJPY narrative I’m working w/ .. even though the USDJPY is only 14% of the USD Index (majority weighted in EURO) it still has more weighting that the USDCHF and the GBPUSD. So, this is an interesting one – for sure.
The EURO is smacking against some SERIOUS trendline resistance that goes back to 2000 and 1985 (synthetically).
Remember, the Euro wasn’t adopted until January 1, 1999. So, the grey box below is the “synthetic” version of the EURO w/ the Deutschmark and other currencies providing a “continuation” into the time frame of Bretton Woods.
Either way, pay attention to the “orange measured moves” as that looks to be a pretty good “beat” for price action. IF the EURO blows thru these trendlines then the next target certainly looks to be 1.15.
On the podcast “Trendlines over Headlines” I discussed how measured moves can also be used as time components. Took a few seconds to show this concept by taking the Orange and Blue measured moves and flipped them to horizontal to create the time component of the measured moves.
Folks … look at the chart below. From the 2000 low, you can see that the “measured move in time” was pretty accurate. Now, mind you, this is a MONTHLY chart so we have some “time” for the cycle to hit. But, you can get it down to the day and the hour. Something I’m working on … not quite there, yet. But, I just “like” the measured moves ….use them.
PRICE = TIME. They are the same thing on a chart …
Here’s the creation of the Vesica Pisces for the EURO. For no other reason than to test it out, I’m going to use that first synthetic drop as the “seed”
Now, mind you, this isn’t something that you can really invest/trade off of but, for me at least, it’s a good exercise every now and then. 🙂
the Vesica Pisces is the manifestation for the creation of life and is where the numerical equivalents of the square roots of 1-5 come from … it’s inherently nested in Metatrons cube (Archangel Metatron is – according to legend – responsible for the geometry of creation. Mr. Robert Edward Grant has done AMAZING work showing how this happens and has recently PROVEN that the 3 pyramids were actually constructed at the same time w/ Metatrons cube in mind .. it’s amazing.
Anyway, the market vibrates and is harmonic and abides by natural law. Just like everything … our job is to find that “beat” and “vibration” and then give it a whirl. One last, note, you can move the vectors horizontal to show the TIME component. I would do that but .. need to go do some “work.”
Cheers and make it a great day.
Every PRICE move .. based on the Vesica Pisces. Believe it … or not.
5 waves complete … wave 1 = wave 5 (blue arrows) .. initial impulse wave natural log and/or square root 8 projection … ffrequency target (good stop out if it blows thru) …1.732 extension from of wave 3- 4 (note, wave 3 = 2.236 (square root of 5) ….
all this being said, this is 5 waves UP folks so the coming pullback is one we want to BUY … for now, that’s around (previous wave 4 of a lesser degree) in/around 1.05. we’ll just have to wait and see …
keep an eye on this very very very key level on the USD Index. correspondingly, here’s a EURO BUY PATTERN present inverse to the USD. (it’s usually how it works)
watch the levels shown on the GBP and the EURO and USD Index to get a feel for what might be coming this week.
IF we hold these levels then expect dollar strength .. EURO and POUND weak.
IF we FAIL on these sell patterns for the EURO and the POUND then the dollar will take a pounding and go right into the level we have been waiting for what seems like a LONG LONG time … stay tuned tonight.
personally, WAITING and have a “hunch” that the levels will fail (USD weakness) and go forth and attack the lower level shown on the USD Index which is the SAME level equal to EVERY move lower in the USD in the past 30+ years. worth waiting for … don’t you think?
believe it or not, I learned to trade as a SPOT Fx dude ..no kidding. No stocks, no futures, no ETF’s out of the Navy I jumped right into the INSANE world of SPOT FX …
I still trade the SPOT MARKET … I’ll check out the majors, then the crosses and see what’s the scoop. no kidding, I once heard that ALL the world bonds and commodities and stock markets would have to operate for 90 days non-stop to match the liquidity of ONE DAY on the Currency Market. YEW …
in this case we have a currency pair as the EURO vs the Japanese Yen. chart goes up the Euro is stronger. chart goes down the Yen (versus the Euro) is stronger … it’s as simple as that.
I’m cruising the charts waiting to get locked down in CA and saw a neat chart to my eye. I just started working this chart and …boooooom … we find a level as depicted.
Let’s make this easy, when we have a LOT of math in a really TIGHT area we HAVE to take a swing at the bat … now, that being said, that is some nice thrust from the 121.62 area but I think that last thrust up was the end of a flat correction. so the recent wave down, should (trust my count or not 🙂 not sure I do or I don’t to be honest 🙂 ) go to our targeted BUY ZONE. Say 120.50-121.
let me know if you have any questions on how the levels were derived …
oh, in the spot fx world, w/ SO MUCH math in one area, I usually give myself 30 pips below – max- for my stop out. w/ the liquidity of the FX and the math as shown, go down to a 1 minute chart for the entry .. seeing these levels hit, instantaneously watching the reaction and to think that w/ a home computer and some PATTERN work the entire world STOPPED selling EUR vs JPY and started BUYING EUR vs JPY. still amazes me … I’m always surprised to see this insane way to look at anything rational about the markets work from time to time ….
12/3 – please take the time to reread the below, as it is rather in depth, because it explains how important the coming levels are on the USD. folks, they are HUGE!
in the chart below, you will see no labeling. if bullish we poke our head below former support and ROCKET SHIP higher from 87-88. if bearish we find support but keep going down. how far down? well, of course, below the old all time low from 2008.
this second chart is the Monthly but added the RSI. this is key … as discussed below, the RSI develops bull/bear zones and can really help w/ your analysis .. in this case we are sitting right on the cliff of support for the BULLISH ZONE. If we go below there the RSI is telling us of a potential BIG trend change … adding more fuel to the fire for the key 87-88 level!
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it’s been almost 3ish years since I posted on the Dollar Index. My last post was the chart below and what’s shown are the many many time and price synergies between the current time and, well, 30 years ago. this chart nailed the high in the dollar and I’ve been watching it just seeing what type of FORM and BALANCE and PROPORTION the index would take … ummm, I still really don’t know but what’s important is the kazillion dollar COVID question – was the “high” a C or a 1. Folks, this is a HUGE deal.
so where are we ….? i don’t know where you are BUT I know that I’m somewhat confused …. is it wave 3 and we are correcting wave 4 or was that an A-B-C correction from 2008 and we are at THE MOST IMPORTANT POINT IN THE US DOLLAR INDEX right here, right now?
for the EWT purest out there, the top in 2017 around 103 is really dependent upon the correction into the 88-89 area. for the bulls, we know that wave 4 cannot overlap the end of wave 1. we don’t close below the end of 1 but we do go thru a little … man, are we cutting hairs here …? we do have the RSI transition into bullish zones but here’s all we need to know. we can’t go below 88-89 because then 4 goes below 1 and we have something else going on …..
the bears …? it’s almost a textbook zig-zag correction and the symmetry in time and price from the last BIG correction (1992-2001) is PERFECT in time and the harmonic .786 of that last big correction make the bears … hungry? The RSI resistance breakout doesn’t help BUT note how low the last rally was … again, the key is support. If we break the dashed green line … this puppy might be diving into the red sea, so to speak.
I DON’T KNOW …but here are two charts that spell out the “big picture” bear case and the bull case … either way, I suspect we’ll know soon.
