BONDS – May 19, 2026

We have been in a consolidating, long term, 3 year triangle in the 30 year bond. Being in a triangle is like being in the ring, as an amateur, w/ a professional UFC fighter. Prices going up … no. Prices going down …no. So, based on this post, from 3 years ago, I had no idea that we would coil. Well we did and now we have broken out:

Bonds – August 22, 2023

Here’s what I believe is going on:

That’s a target of 6-6.5 on the ten year. Hello servicing trillions of dollar of debt

Simultaneously, we are watching this attractor that we ID’d 3 year ago:

So, what are we looking for … 5 waves UP on the 10 year interest rate and then, simultaneously, check in w/ the 30 year support level ID’d.

As for timing … well, guess we’ll have to ask AI about a BIG planet that starts w/ a U. Bonds REALLY do track to it … ever wonder why the trends in bonds last so long …? BIG planet, far away causes BIG long moves. See how it works?

The noise is loud and this is a BIG deal as each 1/2 percentage point in rates really hurts emerging markets and other rate sensitive countries.

Note, believe we have a dollar low in place … the dollar and bonds ‘can’ go up together as shown.

I have been long TBT for years … I’ll cut it and flip to TLT once we get up a little higher in rates and take a peak at the patterns.

ONE LAST: it’s just a pattern. Yes, I like my count and believe this is a 5th wave – however – this level could fail and then, watch out as something ain’t right at the circle K.