10 YR rates – October 18, 2023

The TLT trade at 84 https://bartscharts.com/2023/10/13/tlt-october-13-2023/ coincided to the day w/ Uranus moving 84 degrees helio. From an astrological perspective, degrees of movements of Uranus are important for bonds/fixed income – or so I am told. 😉 The chart appears heavy and certainly thought it would close below and keep rolling but .. it lived, for now. honestly, not too bullish on it but what do I know. But, that started to change when I went and took a peak at the 10 year interest rate chart – $TNX.

The bonds are in a complete route … that being said, I’m trying hard to not look at the fundamentals because 1/ I don’t understand them and 2/ I’m just a simple pattern guy.

We have confluent technical indications that the bond route “should” be coming to an end, for now. I know there is no justification for this from all the talking head pundits … but I’m just looking at the chart.

  1. A pretty clear Elliott Wave count showing we are in a 5th waves and it sure could be complete.
  2. A weekly bearish divergence in the RSI from the last peak. Yes, it’s not a lot, but it has “not” exceeded the last peak.
  3. Two 1.618 extensions and the most important one being from 5 years ago. They overlap almost exactly. The last one, well, that’s from the wave 3 high and, that one lies exactly on top of the first. NOTE – both of these highs we used the extension from topped in October …
  4. Mr. Measured Move – blue arrow
  5. Some other stuff

So, this is looking as the first “real” opportunity to stop this runaway train of rates … but, this train WILL GET GOING AGAIN as I’m counting this as the first wave completing/completed in a 5 wave sequence. (remember folks, wave 3 can’t be the shortest, so get ready. now that doesn’t mean it has to be long as wave 1, then it can’t be shorter than wave 5.) The characteristics of the 3rd wave usually mean that it will equal or exceed wave 1.

To put wave 1 in perspective from a percentage move it has just been a 1,483% rise in interest rates since the low. IT IS JUST GETTING STARTED.

If we blow thru this level – and, of course, why not – then it’s pretty conceivable that we could roll all the way up to the .382 from the 1981 high in interest rates. What do you know?

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