Loonie at a critical level

LOVE the Loonie … as you can see below, IF (the big IF) you can catch a wave this FX pair likes to run .. in either direction. well here comes a wave …

at 1 we have the classic AB=CD and, at least for now, it is holding …

at 2 we have a lot of MATH coming together along w/ a corrective (dashed red line) move that has present on most EVERY major corrective pullback.

w/in both above (1 and 2) we have the TIME dashed green line … that’s pretty key to me. Something (hint hint look up at the sky at night) has been responsible for the corrective TIME of EVERY MOVE DOWN since the beginning. a measured move in time, if you will. if your wondering, the dashed orange line is of course harmonically related by fibo .382.

guess what, I’ll WAIT for that … and that’s the end of the summer, and I’ll table the Loonie but I wanted to show the power of TIME and PRICE combined. Guess what, if it doesn’t work, there’s 50+ other currency pairs. I’m trying after so so many years fighting to make this easy and enjoyable …

FX Currency update

last post on US Dollar Index: https://bartscharts.com/2021/02/22/usd-index-close-to-a-big-move-up/

well, it’s certainly getting interesting.

watch the levels shown on the GBP and the EURO and USD Index to get a feel for what might be coming this week.

IF we hold these levels then expect dollar strength .. EURO and POUND weak.

IF we FAIL on these sell patterns for the EURO and the POUND then the dollar will take a pounding and go right into the level we have been waiting for what seems like a LONG LONG time … stay tuned tonight.

personally, WAITING and have a “hunch” that the levels will fail (USD weakness) and go forth and attack the lower level shown on the USD Index which is the SAME level equal to EVERY move lower in the USD in the past 30+ years. worth waiting for … don’t you think?

USD Index – close to a BIG move UP?

if you have been following my blog, you’ll remember the big measured moves that were around when the dollar was carving out THE low. they have appeared/are appearing again. w/ a wrinkle … using “basic” monthly cycle tools you can see that we have a BIG cycle coming in this month which lines up w/ the measured move target zone a little lower in the index. this could be a BIG DOLLAR MOVE higher ….

below you’ll find the chart that started the dollar bears growling and stopped the dollar bull in it’s track. the form, proportion and balance are amazing and exact. take time to study this chart

the time and price symmetry of the latest high on the USD Index

since then, the USD Index has basically been carving out what looks like a flat correction and then higher … you can read prior posts to see if this was an A-B-C correction or 1,2,3,4 (in work/finishing) and then higher in a big 5th wave. we are getting a little below the end of wave 1 which breaks a rule if your a purist but it sure looks like we are bottoming. then, the last chart is an intraday chart showing a possible mathematical derivation of wave length based on fibo relationships that could get us into the target zone … so, stand by, as this is a BIG level coming up on the USD.

notice the dashed black and blue arrows, they are exact measured moves and then note the long term cycle that is hitting this month

2 hour intraday chart showing wave relationships that could get us down into the target zone .. used equality of wave 1 and 1.618 wave 1 to project.

Dollar Index … here we go and UPDATE

Dollar Index … some big picture considerations.

12/3 – please take the time to reread the below, as it is rather in depth, because it explains how important the coming levels are on the USD. folks, they are HUGE!

in the chart below, you will see no labeling. if bullish we poke our head below former support and ROCKET SHIP higher from 87-88. if bearish we find support but keep going down. how far down? well, of course, below the old all time low from 2008.

this second chart is the Monthly but added the RSI. this is key … as discussed below, the RSI develops bull/bear zones and can really help w/ your analysis .. in this case we are sitting right on the cliff of support for the BULLISH ZONE. If we go below there the RSI is telling us of a potential BIG trend change … adding more fuel to the fire for the key 87-88 level!

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it’s been almost 3ish years since I posted on the Dollar Index. My last post was the chart below and what’s shown are the many many time and price synergies between the current time and, well, 30 years ago. this chart nailed the high in the dollar and I’ve been watching it just seeing what type of FORM and BALANCE and PROPORTION the index would take … ummm, I still really don’t know but what’s important is the kazillion dollar COVID question – was the “high” a C or a 1. Folks, this is a HUGE deal.

so where are we ….? i don’t know where you are BUT I know that I’m somewhat confused …. is it wave 3 and we are correcting wave 4 or was that an A-B-C correction from 2008 and we are at THE MOST IMPORTANT POINT IN THE US DOLLAR INDEX right here, right now?

for the EWT purest out there, the top in 2017 around 103 is really dependent upon the correction into the 88-89 area. for the bulls, we know that wave 4 cannot overlap the end of wave 1. we don’t close below the end of 1 but we do go thru a little … man, are we cutting hairs here …? we do have the RSI transition into bullish zones but here’s all we need to know. we can’t go below 88-89 because then 4 goes below 1 and we have something else going on …..

the bears …? it’s almost a textbook zig-zag correction and the symmetry in time and price from the last BIG correction (1992-2001) is PERFECT in time and the harmonic .786 of that last big correction make the bears … hungry? The RSI resistance breakout doesn’t help BUT note how low the last rally was … again, the key is support. If we break the dashed green line … this puppy might be diving into the red sea, so to speak.

I DON’T KNOW …but here are two charts that spell out the “big picture” bear case and the bull case … either way, I suspect we’ll know soon.

Bart

the Dollar Index as of March 13, 2016

here’s the near perfect pattern that began this monster advance in the dollar:

april-29-dollar

additionally here is a very long term chart of the USD Index:

US_Dollar_Index_from_Stooq_dot_com

I put my own levels on it below …

Page_16-03-13_16-40-25

some things to note:

  • even in the midst of this monster rally – we still haven’t hit a .382 retracement from the all time high
  • the low was – almost exactly a .786 price projection
  • note the RSI – we blew thru the old resistance and note how the “log” trendline that acted as resistance was most recently support.
    • also, note the trend line connecting the highs on the RSI … believe we should/will find support in/around here and the Dollar should start a new move.

here’s where I think we are …

Page_16-03-13_16-59-08

this one is tough … we have the ECB last week and now the FED upcoming. Believe we will see the move occur next week.  It’s almost a year since the high was made in 15.

dollar strength foldback up move – complete

September 9, 2014

CLIFF NOTES: the mirror image foldback that we have been following has, for all intensive purposes, completed the move up.  Expect some dollar weakness and, believe it or not, the entire leg down noted by the red arrow to the left of the chart could be a possibility.  the key point – when mirror image foldbacks fail, they usually fail at the key inflection points so watch the current levels on the USD and the levels on the Pound, Euro, Swissy, Loonie, Chief, etc. for signs of dollar weakness.

Dollar Index Foldback - next leg complete
Dollar Index Foldback – next leg complete

as a side note, I’ve added a long term chart of the US Dollar that began the entire dollar strength run back in 2011 …it’s a beauty.

long term US Dollar Foldback
long term US Dollar Foldback



 

 

May 08, 2014

CLIFF NOTES: I thought I had posted this once before .. the POTENTIAL mirror image foldback on the US DOLLAR.  I have gone thru my charts and I can’t find it but I know I sent it to Larry P so … here it is.  Also, go back and look at the UUP (Dollar ETF) chart that we looked at for the .886 retrace and “one last hope.”  Well, today’s action was pretty impressive …is the dollar bull thesis still alive?  Shoot, I don’t know so I sit on my hands, STILL.  Keep an eye out on the dollar … perhaps it set a low?

Mirror Image Foldback
Mirror Image Foldback

 

the other thing that is interesting is the FRACTAL pattern that appears to be working itself out on a longer term chart …

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