Dollar Index … here we go

Dollar Index … some big picture considerations.

it’s been almost 3ish years since I posted on the Dollar Index. My last post was the chart below and what’s shown are the many many time and price synergies between the current time and, well, 30 years ago. this chart nailed the high in the dollar and I’ve been watching it just seeing what type of FORM and BALANCE and PROPORTION the index would take … ummm, I still really don’t know but what’s important is the kazillion dollar COVID question – was the “high” a C or a 1. Folks, this is a HUGE deal.

so where are we ….? i don’t know where you are BUT I know that I’m somewhat confused …. is it wave 3 and we are correcting wave 4 or was that an A-B-C correction from 2008 and we are at THE MOST IMPORTANT POINT IN THE US DOLLAR INDEX right here, right now?

for the EWT purest out there, the top in 2017 around 103 is really dependent upon the correction into the 88-89 area. for the bulls, we know that wave 4 cannot overlap the end of wave 1. we don’t close below the end of 1 but we do go thru a little … man, are we cutting hairs here …? we do have the RSI transition into bullish zones but here’s all we need to know. we can’t go below 88-89 because then 4 goes below 1 and we have something else going on …..

the bears …? it’s almost a textbook zig-zag correction and the symmetry in time and price from the last BIG correction (1992-2001) is PERFECT in time and the harmonic .786 of that last big correction make the bears … hungry? The RSI resistance breakout doesn’t help BUT note how low the last rally was … again, the key is support. If we break the dashed green line … this puppy might be diving into the red sea, so to speak.

I DON’T KNOW …but here are two charts that spell out the “big picture” bear case and the bull case … either way, I suspect we’ll know soon.

Bart

the Dollar Index as of March 13, 2016

here’s the near perfect pattern that began this monster advance in the dollar:

april-29-dollar

additionally here is a very long term chart of the USD Index:

US_Dollar_Index_from_Stooq_dot_com

I put my own levels on it below …

Page_16-03-13_16-40-25

some things to note:

  • even in the midst of this monster rally – we still haven’t hit a .382 retracement from the all time high
  • the low was – almost exactly a .786 price projection
  • note the RSI – we blew thru the old resistance and note how the “log” trendline that acted as resistance was most recently support.
    • also, note the trend line connecting the highs on the RSI … believe we should/will find support in/around here and the Dollar should start a new move.

here’s where I think we are …

Page_16-03-13_16-59-08

this one is tough … we have the ECB last week and now the FED upcoming. Believe we will see the move occur next week.  It’s almost a year since the high was made in 15.

dollar strength foldback up move – complete

September 9, 2014

CLIFF NOTES: the mirror image foldback that we have been following has, for all intensive purposes, completed the move up.  Expect some dollar weakness and, believe it or not, the entire leg down noted by the red arrow to the left of the chart could be a possibility.  the key point – when mirror image foldbacks fail, they usually fail at the key inflection points so watch the current levels on the USD and the levels on the Pound, Euro, Swissy, Loonie, Chief, etc. for signs of dollar weakness.

Dollar Index Foldback - next leg complete
Dollar Index Foldback – next leg complete

as a side note, I’ve added a long term chart of the US Dollar that began the entire dollar strength run back in 2011 …it’s a beauty.

long term US Dollar Foldback
long term US Dollar Foldback



 

 

May 08, 2014

CLIFF NOTES: I thought I had posted this once before .. the POTENTIAL mirror image foldback on the US DOLLAR.  I have gone thru my charts and I can’t find it but I know I sent it to Larry P so … here it is.  Also, go back and look at the UUP (Dollar ETF) chart that we looked at for the .886 retrace and “one last hope.”  Well, today’s action was pretty impressive …is the dollar bull thesis still alive?  Shoot, I don’t know so I sit on my hands, STILL.  Keep an eye out on the dollar … perhaps it set a low?

Mirror Image Foldback
Mirror Image Foldback

 

the other thing that is interesting is the FRACTAL pattern that appears to be working itself out on a longer term chart …

Main20140508214324

 

the Dollar Index Fractal

CLIFF NOTES: I thought I had posted this once before .. the POTENTIAL mirror image foldback on the US DOLLAR.  I have gone thru my charts and I can’t find it but I know I sent it to Larry P so … here it is.  Also, go back and look at the UUP (Dollar ETF) chart that we looked at for the .886 retrace and “one last hope.”  Well, today’s action was pretty impressive …is the dollar bull thesis still alive?  Shoot, I don’t know so I sit on my hands, STILL.  Keep an eye out on the dollar … perhaps it set a low?

Mirror Image Foldback
Mirror Image Foldback

 

the other thing that is interesting is the FRACTAL pattern that appears to be working itself out on a longer term chart …

Main20140508214324

 

Dollar Index and the “D” word …

updating the dollar index fro this previous post:

http://bartscharts.com/2013/10/27/us-dollar-as-of-10272013-900-pm-est/

yesterday, saw a quick blurb on the financial news channels that first mentioned the “D” word and here is the link:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ecb-options-limited-euro-zone-defaults-to-deflation-2013-11-06?link=mw_home_kiosk

today, they CUT RATES and the dollar index took off like a rocket ship.  having had the wonderful experience to gain the CMT and then teach the capstone course for the CMT Level III for a while it was burned into our head that the dollar, while somewhat of a wild card will, in fact, STRENGTHEN in a deflationary environment.  Sure looks like that is the case .. but now I’m going off into fundamental nah nah land (it’s not nah nah land for most of you, just me.  as my skill is advanced pattern recognition which, unfortunately, is nah nah land for the people reading this.  so in the end, we are all in nah nah land.  I digress ..)

of note today, the US Dollar Index exceeded it’s largest corrective move since July of this year …while a pullback in the dollar is expected (perhaps intraday) I would look at this as an opportunity to add to the position.  additionally, from the below charts expect resistance on the way up in/around 82, 82.50, 83.50.  believe we are going to take this trip into the low 90’s.  THEN THAT IS WHERE IT WILL GET VERY VERY INTERESTING …

rock on, always  Bart

Dollar Index
Dollar Index

target in the low 90's as shown
target in the low 90’s as shown

US Dollar as of 10/27/2013 9:00 PM EST

in our last post we discussed the importance of current levels on the dollar or the 78.73 level a little lower.  in “counting terms” believe the dollar is carving out a major bottom in what can be coined an expanded flat corrective move.  if this analysis is correct, I am expecting a major move on the dollar…

http://bartscharts.com/2013/10/01/dollar-index-done-or-correcting-or-a-little-lower/

the EURO has completed a major retracement, the POUND needs a little higher or right in here, the YEN finished a sell pattern, the SWISS hit a weekly pattern (or perhaps a little lower to the .382) and mulitple other pairs via the USD are showing the potential for a major dollar low in place.  what else?

Commitment of Traders (COT): Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large International Monetary Market speculators, cut their overall US dollar long positions to a total of $692.8 million as of Tuesday October 1st.

Here’s the data in chart form …

27-Cots

here’s the dollar index using red arrows to show the BEARISH and the blue arrows to show the BULLISH positions.  NOTE, at the extremes the opposite happened w/ regard to price.

October 27 2013 COT

now, when we take a look at the the EURO we’ll see a pretty amazing picture w/ the net positions shown but this time w/ a price of the EURO vs USD overlaid on top of the positions.  here take a look …

27-EuroFx

note the price of the EURO vs the USD .. at extreme levels of BEARISH and BULLISH points, the price did the opposite.  When the level of bearishness by the large speculators was extreme the EURO went up and when the level was bullish it went down.  take note of our dollar index we have been following since the end of August …w/ everything being presented here and in the past, certainly looks like being a dollar bull in/around here is the side of the market to be on …

dollar index updated as of 9 PM EST 10/27/2013:

US Dollar Index Weekly
US Dollar Index Weekly

 

US Dollar Index Daily
US Dollar Index Daily

here is the picture for the UUP w/ potential support points noted … also, believe if the low that we carved out on this chart is taken out by a daily close then all of this analysis is completely incorrect.

UUP Dollar ETF (BULL)
UUP Dollar ETF (BULL)