TBT update

last post on TBT: https://bartscharts.com/2021/06/20/tbt-3/

TBT has fallen into the bottom level of BUY zone and I’m long TBT in/around 18.

A lot going on w/ his chart but wanted to show you some “other” geometry that I was working … you see, we can make arcs and develop trend lines using the geometry of the chart but also, using the TIME and PRICE to define the vectors.

in this case, we take the all time low and draw the bottom of the square to intersect the “time” of the high. that will define our arcs and the square. the most important aspect of a square is the 45 degree angle (red line) and that line we then “copy” and “paste” to the bottom right of the first square and, well look at that … it intersects the LOW almost exactly. we also draw another square (and we can/will keep drawing these squares to find the trend lines running the show) and notice how the two 45 degree angles TIMED the low almost exactly .. (FWIW, this was a precise 1.618 AB =CD and a .618 retracement along w/ the same percentage corrective move that drove price into the all time low … came in around 21-22 percent decline.

so, while we do have the traditional “slap a retracement grid and look for the .618 retracement and a whole lot more …

take some time to study this chart .. try to understand it as it’s very helpful, indeed.

and, w/ all this work, I’ll consider it “wrong” if we get a daily close below 16.08 (.786 retracement)good weekend to everyone …


TBT – tricky

please see chart below … ultimately, it’s about risk control and how much risk one is willing to take.

our thesis is the 14-15 dollar low was a BIG low and we are very early in a multi-year (multi-decade (?)) rise in interest rates. yup, you just read that correctly …so to manage risk, one must understand that there is a potential that the trend has changed and we now have 3 different levels to enter …

here and now … GARTLEY 222 pattern complete at the low however, a nice gap down warns of lower prices. gaps into a level beg of caution …

19.14-19.42 …realistic w/ that gap down and lands basically on the top of the channel w/ polarity in play.

18-18.50 .. a lot of ratios and polarity principle (red line) … that looks good.

so, if the low today was the low but you don’t like the gap down then WAIT for a daily/weekly CLOSE above 21.50 for confirmation and BUY or if you do not think the low was today then WAIT for the two levels below.

either way, risk is basically in the 16-17 former cluster or the low at 14.28. that’s the true support zones. the lower breaks then the entire thesis is 100% wrong.