support imminent ….around 18-20
SELL PATTERN completing a little higher and its behavior will give us a good idea of the overall market …
folks, it’s all that it is ….it’s the famed Gartely 222 Pattern which has the following:
AB=CD – yes we have that
.618 or .786 retracement – yes we have that
an 1.27 or 1.618 extension pattern – yes we have that
so, folks, it’s “just” a sell PATTERN on an important stock and IF (the big IF) it works THEN the market will probably follow. right? kinda?
OR the PATTERN fails (which does happen) and IF (the big IF) it fails THEN the market will probably follow. right? kinda?
therefore – sell PATTERN works GOOGL should go down and the market will go down.
else – sell PATTERN fails and GOOGL should GAP (more than likely) over the pattern (happens all the time) and the general market will follow …
GOOGL – SELL PATTERN and that’s all it is …
we have two long term extension targets along with a long term AB=CD. big resistance/target ahead.
Just a little higher and the Dow Jones Transportation Index hits a major long term target ….
Update: the Transports target has been achieved and on an intraday 60 minute chart, UPS, came w/in some cents to the exact level. On the daily it’s basically 1 percent below. Now, the level is the level is the level so that target still stands but in conjunction w/ the Transports, believe this target set has been achieved.
Now, look at how STRONG this move in UPS and the Transports is into new highs. IT IS STRONG. Thus, suggestion is to wait for either a MONTHLY or WEEKLY signal reversal candle on close. (the LOW of the HIGH candle is CLOSED BELOW)
As I signed off last time .. stay tuned!
One of our nicest and predictable patterns is the “long term” measured move or AB=CD. UPS has an AB=CD 179-180. I say “long term” because we really like to use the longest measured move possible. In this case, w/ UPS, we are using the all time low to the first “big” high in/around January 2018. From there we copy/paste the blue arrow and place it on the low at 81-82 and project. That’s it.
the other numbers and the IPO date are cues for me to look at cycles and other “stuff” – just helps w/ the probability because, well, who knows if any of this going to work anyway – right?
Additionally, since the “all-time” low in July of 1932 EVERY major correction has occurred after the “blue arrow” price move has completed. Note, in the case of the dashed orange arrow it was 1.27*the blue arrow. A number all too familiar w/ readers of this blog. And, finally, as you can see we have a measured move completing right around 12,000.
Now, if we do blow thru the target a little higher (and why not – it’s a rocketship) then we will still use our projections off the blue arrow to derive targets, along w/ other techniques.
But, here below, is the Daily and you can see that we are finishing up 5 waves and the synergy between wave 5 = 1.618 is present right at the level of the long term measured move projection ….
this long term level on the Transports is going to be REALLY interesting. HANG ON!
the FX market is the biggest market in the world w/ trillions of dollars traded every single day … yet, that being said, based on nothing more than math we can derive a nice pattern/ level to go long or short. I think that is kind of cool …
where to start? I like to think of PERS-D.
P= project. I use 3 targets of .618, 1.0 and 1.618
in this case we PROJECT DOWN and you can see that the orange line is 1.618*blue.
Now we get to the “E” of the PERS-D. People get confused or forget about the E. It stands for EXTENSION. key high or low swings are key and what happens when you retrace them 100 percent? do they lose their importance? no … so we can extend off those points as shown below. (I start w/ 1.27 and 1.618) as you can see, the “shelf of support” is the 1.27 extension and importantly notice where the 1.618 extension lies … right at the 1.618 price projection.
PER – time for “Mr. R” … the plain old retracement. you can spend an entire day on this subject but for now, we will keep it easy. what I REALLY REALLY like to see is the old .382 right on top of the .618. (note: .382+.618 = 1.0)
so we have PER and now the “S” who the? what the? S? S stands for structure and, specifically, polarity w/ regards to support and resistance …. do we have that?
so we get to D which is Divergence and we can check that out if it gets there … so PERS-D.
but think of the math and the 7 reasons 1.15 area will be HUGE for the fate of the EURO.
Banks are very important to the overall health of the market … key support approaching! monitor closely …
blogged about the banks a couple weeks ago here: https://bartscharts.com/2020/09/09/banks-where-are-they/ since then, they have continued to lose strength and now the Banking Index has a very important BUY pattern which should hold and the ratio of the Banks/NYSE Index has key support a little bit lower.
banks lead us up and lead us down so these areas below are KEY to strength of the overall market. bounce here/little lower on the ratio and we should stabilize. if we cut thru these levels w/out a whimper and continue lower then i would expect continued pressure down the line …
there is an old adage – the banks lead you up and lead you down. the market has blasted to old all time highs or thru them and the banks…? well, they rallied a little but have not shown the strength of the overall market, especially technology.
let’s keep a close eye on them over the coming days and weeks … important.
here’s the support charts that I posted back in the past to show the patterns at work – it has NOTHING to do w/ me. I just pull out the crayons and try to find the patterns. keep it simple.
this chart was finding support at the “first” level after a pretty liquidating sell off from 112. pay attention … a LOT of math and patterns coming together. One of the key aspects of the chart below (if you have read this far) is watching for former FAILED PATTERNS.
as you can see, that level worked and the banks rallied … I apologize for not having the SELL pattern but I never posted it. Do you see it? After not making it above the 117 level it sold off big time … and, using some math and patterns we found a support zone ….
in the chart below I show you the SELL PATTERN on the banks. YES, this is after the fact and I DID NOT post this at the time but wanted to show 1/the harmony of this index and 2/ the pattern for illustrative purposes. the other reason for posting this is to demonstrate the bank rally off the March 2020 lows has been feeble …
and as we can see, the banking index / NYSE Index is tepid, at best. really don’t think the banks are too healthy right now …
last week, blogged about parabolic arcs and showed how we could use geometry to POTENTIALLY (the only operative word in investing) to look for inflection points. if your new to the blog, you’ll find a chart that has been replicated a couple times over past couple weeks /months for an area or zone of resistance. in fact, here’s a print to screen where JC (www.allstarcharts.com) and I were talking about this level … we discussed it ramifications to manage risk. this level was known 4-6 weeks ago and was discussed about it being respected. the past couple days market action can tell you why this was a smart move …
if this zone held, then technology would lose some steam (so to speak) and rotation into less volatile names (staples) would occur. at my last count we had 6 different projection techniques and math coming into this area.
when it broke above it – on a daily basis – I was somewhat surprised but it’s all probability, right? so, I blogged to wait for an open and a close above our targeted area/zone. we DID NOT get an open and a close above our area so the resistance was still on .. that is what I mean waiting for a signal reversal.
signal reversal candle (bullish) = the ‘high’ of the ‘low’ candle is taken out on close
signal reversal candle (bearish) – the ‘low’ of the ‘high’ candles is taken out on close.
when we come up w/ levels, waiting for an open/close above or below a certain level is the smartest way to play it. this is what was recommended … we have a LONG time before the month ends (for the monthly candle) but we can monitor via weekly and daily …
no need to rehash old news .. the zone has been hit. you read the blog – to find out where it COULD (there’s that probability connotation again) go …
using the basics, for now, I have used measured move corrections (blue and orange arrows) and rudimentary retracement techniques to come up w/ an initial set of targets.
folks, this might not even be the top to do all this work … it COULD GET ALL REVERSED TOMORROW.
keep the erasers and pencils ready, this is going to get interesting …
thanks for reading – Bart
MUB has very strong resistance above and look what happened the first time it hit this level.
almost a year ago, blogged about the chart below looking for the 118-121 price level to be key target zone and/or resistance before the “Muni’s” coul could move any higher. that chart is here:
the first tag of this level led to the exact same price correction as shown by the red dash arrows boxed below. this “zone” still appears to be very formative moving forward … my sense is the market isn’t going anywhere till we bust down the door and explode to the upside – else – we will see weakness if the MUB start’s to break down ….thanks for reading.
I was asked to look at NVDA and, while it hit a nice top at/around 575 I usually don’t like to do post like these because it’s a “could have, would have, should have” type of post but I wanted to show some readers the GEOMETRY working w/ NVDA.
In this case, we picked the first “major” correction and that becomes our initial arc .. folks THAT MOVE DOWN SIGNIFIED BY THE RADIUS OF THE BLUE ARROW IS THE ROCK HITTING THE WATER AND IT PUTS OFF WAVES ….those waves are, essentially, vibrations and they are governed by music and sacred geometry.
have done a ton of post on the square roots and the inverse of square roots and how they tie into the frequency of string.
when using arcs, circles the same concept of polarity applies so after the initial arc is drawn we EXPAND THE ARC by musical notes and sacred geometry ratio’s and we look back into the past to see where support or resistance (depending on the direction your going UP or DOWN) is present. In this case, we can see that expanding by musical note A of the equal octave scale of music is exactly the bottom of the price that coiled and consolidated and then lit the cans and took off!
so, w/ the polarity principle in mind – S becomes R and R become S IF the bottom of the circle (in this case) is support then the top should (doesn’t have to ..) be resistance. thus far, it has been resistance.
the other thing we need to notice is .. it’s also a 1.618 price projection …
NVDA is cooling its jets …
Now, see the AB=CD in/around 412? WATCH THAT LEVEL CLOSELY as a potential target as …. price likes to go back and tag the AB=CD if/when it blows thru that failed pattern … also, note, from a “price” correction the largest measured move correction takes us right down to the AB=CD
since I already had the circle drawn I went ahead and did the Vesica Pisces and then rolled those vectors to price .. they can also be done w/ price. remember PRICE = TIME.