BART is a CMT and an expert a "advanced" pattern recognition used w/in the intermarket analysis discipline. He's also an accomplished Business Development Executive providing solutions to a myriad of business markets.
The entire read area is the big zone of resistance. So, while it is exciting to see the strength of the market (s) – they are banging into STIFF resistance.
So, CAVEAT EMPTOR, for now … let’s see them blow thru the above resistance before I really get on the bandwagon.
Then there is my “go to” – XLP / $NYA.
Yes, there are only 30 stocks compared to the 5000+ for the NYA, I’m looking for “institutional sentiment” by the ratio.
The thesis being IF this was truly RISK ON THEN this ratio would be falling hard. Note, it is not. In fact, it found support at the largest (pink) corrective move in the history of the ration (roughly 20+ years) and there was a “daily 3 drives” right at that level and, thus far, it’s showing strength.
Hence, the market should be finding resistance/going down … it’s not so something is amiss now isn’t it? Yes.
Either the ratio blows thru (to the downside) the .618 retracement and the .618 abcd and the largest measured move down ever (pink arrow) and, finally, a daily 3 drives then YES this is a very bullish market and the ratio will probably go lower causing the markets to explode even higher and target the lower level … then she tops.
Who knows? For now, I’m just waiting to see which way she blows and then try (operative word) to get a piece of it and not be greedy or emotional. Tough sometimes, isn’t it?
Then we can’t forget to mention the coolest/craziest square out that we’ll ever see in our lifetimes again – today is 18, 121 calendar days from the all time low in 1974. I took a look at the last time the trend line was hit and it took almost 5 months for the market to finally give away. So, perhaps we shuck and jive up hear up and down until she just gives? Certainly a possibility….
Take a look at the chart on the hourly. Note, the “exact” trend line could be off w/ slippage and the chart package but close enough. So, I just don’t see the market taking off like crazy w/ this square out happening – now. But, the market is always right, so maybe it doesn’t care about the biggest square out ever ? Perhaps not?
You might want to spend some time and go back over that post as it lays out – in pretty good detail – the potentialities w/in the USD complex. What I do know is we are hitting patterns – just like everything else – and the USD is a ‘big deal’ w/ the yards and yards and yards of currencies flowing throughout the world.
Back when I started to learn FX the statistic was that all the worlds exchanges trading everything/anything they can would have to operate continuously for 90 days straight to equal one day of volume on the currency markets. Can you imagine how big it is now? Yup .. when you jump in to the ring of Foreign Currency trading, as Mr. Joe Dinapoli told me once “in a cage w/ angry an hungry gorilla holding dynamite and …they dynamite is lit.” Not kidding …
So, FX and, therefore, the US Dollar Index are something to always keep in your scan.
The gameplan laid out w/in the last post above has been working its way out, almost exactly (like a roadmap one might say), and we are now at the demarcation of the bullish or bearish scenario.
You know what, have no idea which way its going to go but , believe it will be revealing itself very soon.
The “bearish” USD count is as shown. IF we go above the “big read 2” then I’ll have to alter the count, which I have no problem doing. I like this count because of the expanded flat. It’s one of my favorite PATTERNS to look for … the ‘tip off’ that we might have more probability of the expanded flat than anything else is that the ‘c’ wave is almost exactly equal to 1.618 ‘a’. That’s the classic relationship or guideline and the fact that it’s hard to NOT count the 3 waves down. Folks, that is sure looking (the red box) to be an expanded correction and therefore we just finished wave (2) of 3 and it’s time to expect a nice bit of dollar thrashing for the coming weeks/months.
If we blow thru the smaller red (2) then I’ll have to throw it all away and readjust, which I have no problem doing.
Here’s the monthly correction with all the SAME measured move (blue arrows) that always occur.
Pretty wild that the worlds most famous company seems to certainly adhere to the vibration of those trading/investing in it … the geometry has certainly been something.
Dare we trust my Elliott Wave Count showing 5 waves complete from a couple posts ago? Or, the fact that the geometry creating the gravity center up there in time and space caused the resistance which – thus far- cause AAPL to star falling from the proverbial tree. Is it going to hit any of us on the head?
So, we have broken and closed below (on a monthly basis) a 21 year support trendline (have no clue if that’s important from a fibo perspective or not) and the next realy important trend line is the dashed purple support line … it’s already been tested and worked causing the most latest run up to all new time highs …
Guess the question is are you willing to make the bet that the “dashed purple line” will hold as support again and AAPL continues its amazing run higher …hmmm.
My friend/mentor Larry shot an email over describing the current state of the NASDAQ composite.
Friday’s move represented only the 3rd time the Nazzie was down more than a two standard deviation – in one day. The last time happened – October 1987.
I DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNS OF A CRASH COMING BUT … an interesting factoid, one would think.
We have VERY important support coming in lower in/around 13750-14000.
Not enough of a pullback to do a good projection so … just watch the measured move level (read arrow) and then the confluence levels shown below.
The XBI ETF is setting up for a POTENTIAL bearish H+S.
Keep an eye on XBI.
The high labeled “RIGHT” looks like the completion of an expanded flat.
Not hard to see the classic H+S pattern appears w/ the neckline shown as the bold green horizontal line.
If a “true” breakout then we would have expected the “polarity” of the black trend line hold as support – at least for a little bit. It sliced right thru it.
Next up is the .618 retrace. We really don’t have anything to project from so look for the 79-80 level to be support.
Hard to look at this chart as the company that I do Strategic Business Development for is in the biotech sector. What has been amazing is to watch all the VC’s and Private Equity people talk how bullish it is and – let’s face it – that was a NICE bounce off the green line but – what if its on a C wave ending the correction mentioned above?
The neckline has held for almost 5 years ….
Always look at the long term chart and here’s a long term MONTHLY LOG scale – the H+S pops out like a sore thumb, doesn’t it?
Seriously, asking a question here – does this look bullish?
Since the top in KRE around 77 EVERY down move swing has been equal to or close to the “read measured move arrow.”
I added volume tonight because I wanted to see if we had a BIG volume spike accompanying the pretty bullish engulfing candle (daily) that occurred on Friday. Volume is around the norm … take a look at when KRE bottomed. That’s a “capitulation” low.
We have a small gap that needs to be filled before we move into the crucial 42 area for the Regionals.
If Regionals are “ok” then this is a BUY PATTERN and KRE should find support in/around that level.
If the Regionals are “not ok” then, well, that level will NOT hold and the KRE will, more than likely move lower quickly.
Geometry …from one vector radius or measured move. See it to believe it and then BELIEVE and then you will REALLY SEE it …
Slider’s been added to the mix.
Slider and Ponch and I all flew together when at the FRS. While I was “technically” their instructor, those two dudes were teaching all of us … it’s all coming back to me now. I now remember them always challenging “technical” aspects of different weapons systems w/ well thought and researched questions.
I don’t remember if I ever answered one correctly.
They are also two incredibly gifted and patriotic men … love these guys and, seriously, if you could see the content of our text threads. It’s a riot …digression complete.
Anyway, at almost 10 pm EST for Ponch he called me and I could tell he was “in the zone” … we talked “this” stuff and left w/ a concept of inflection points as we were relating it to when we flew low levels – 500 ft / 500 mph and Ponch was actually an F14 Airshow Crew so he got REALLY low and really fast. Man, those days were truly a blast. But, we talked about upcoming turn points and width of route and everything in between …
Around 10 minutes later I got this in text:
“@Bart Slider made a connection back to Reality switch technologies when we were talking FEP/Act Inf and E-M theory.
The turns points we talked about tonight are attractors. They are part of the world space landscape.
The world space landscape is consciousness, it is learning, not static. This means attractors move. No map can reflect the terrain. The terrain is the map.
Patterns you are uncovering contain attractors (turn points).
The gap between what your patterns reveal and actual reality is known as surprise (Boyd called this New Information and mismatches, it also goes by entropy). We seek to minimize surprise.
How do we minimize surprise? We predict where we expect to find attractors (turn points). “
So, my commitment is, as we continue to dive into this “stuff,” I’m going to document it … we are onto an idea and Ponch / Slider have the scent. I’m honestly just along for the Patterns. (they’ll dump me in a heart beat when the next pattern guy comes along … 🙂 )
You might want to tell your friends to follow along … why not? It’s free … LOL.
Anyhoo … as we look at the market, one of the things I told Ponch is IT DOESN’T MATTER which swing we pick when we start to create its geometry. The only thing is we want to capture a “swing.” A major high and a major low …
This is why I use long term monthly charts and try to capture as much or all of the chart data/history as possible. Why? Because these ARE the swings – everything else underneath them are – perfect – FRACTALS of the BIG SWINGS. Or, if you would like to look at it in another way, the monthly swings are the result of the first 1 minute or tick chart low to high (assuming most charts these days are going UP) which was the metaphorical rock hitting the water but w/ an expansive force that would be governed by what? The laws of waves, which abide by the laws of music which ultimately produce – the geometry we see w/in all of our reality.
So, below you will see the progression from a “random” swing that I chose and the expansions both back into the past and into the present and future that abide by the natural law governing – well -us all.
SURF.LIVE.
Why not try it yourself – it’s that easy. I mean, come on, if your reading this blog? 🙂
So, as you can see, that one blue vector caused the geometry shown in the above charts which are pretty amazing if you look how the EXACT same delta outside the arc that was support back in the past, replicated itself EXACTLY the same price amount as the past. And, if you just “expand” the arc by 2.o and let your eye study the last chart you will see the “mirror opposite” correction occurring opposite the circle and along the same arc and price total of the one in the past. Wow.
But when things REALLY get fascinating (because it does STILL fascinate me) is because when you put the “entire matrix framework” together you get an amazing picture. Why so amazing?
Think about it – these trendlines and intersections are causing future and past inflection points or angles of ascent and descent based on the GEOMETRY SET by the angular (price and time) VIBRATION of that “blue measured move” down ….
And what’s that vibration do – just like the entire universe – it becomes form.
Study this chart … replicate it. It’s meditative. Or at least is has become …
A vibration is set in this 2D representation of PRICES MOVING THRU TIME when a security COMPLETES a major long term swing. A swing determined by a major swing low to a major swing high (preferably the first on a long term chart) or vice versa.
The vibration becomes form governed by natural law. What? Well, in a 2D world the platonic solid for that is a CUBE.
Hence, it’s just squares peeps …hence the reason we draw them based on the angular (PRICE and TIME) displacement occuring in the 2d representation of this event occuring w/in this game called life …
Our job, at least mine? Find the patterns to simply manage risk. The same patterns which repeat – as fractals – specifically governed by the emotional vibration of the masses which are trading the same securities day after day … and that’s why the patterns work … because they are, work with me here, simply geometric representations of the frequency, accordingly, NUMBERS that the masses put off subconsciously into TIME AND SPACE (sound familiar) leaving footprints for us to exploit to MANAGE RISK. (That’s all it is) and, since human nature never changes – “there is nothing new under the sun” – the PATTERNS representing the masses vibrational emotions of fear and greed are geometrically created by the same math and music that governs us all …
Now, one last …
Go ahead and make sure you blow up the picture above and spend a little time meditatively staring at the “center point” (where the purple and orange square trend lines meet and start the blue corrective move down) and you’ll begin to, slowly see triangles, then the triangles go together and then you’ll see – yup – the pyramid. Hugh … imagine that.
But now, keep just lifting that “center point” up from there and you’ll see the pyramid nice and clearly. Now, blink, and overlay the Square of 9 numbers on top of this pyramid and – now – do you BELIEVE?
Because if you BELIEVE you will SEE how this all works …
