MSFT in outer space … !

a long term position on MSFT was closed earlier this year around 220, it was a good ride. and, frankly, I had forgotten about MSFT ever since but when I was working on the NASDAQ chart I saw how strong it was so curiosity had killed the cat and I took a peak at MSFT. YIKES .. what could have been LOL …

but, I still believe Sir Isaac Newton was correct THAT gravity will pull us back down .. so, I got out my eraser and did the geometry we were taught in elementary school on how to create circles out of lines … from there, we use the center of that circle as our “gravity center” and work geometry from there …

I show the steps below … seemingly, the top of the radius circle is a good target and, believe it or not, I have used it before. so, holy smokes, another 10% from here? sheesh … but, those targets are “real” in that if you look at the arcs that came from the gravity center you’ll see that price hug along those arcs VERY nicely so, figuratively, we have a “good arc” so those targets above are …realistic.

now, that being said, as I was looking (studying) the chart my eye showed me a pretty regular “measured move” as the price crept up the arcs. those are the blue arrows … also, note that the measured move is harmonic w/ the initial move off the bottom at .618. the higher targets – if it keeps on going – align w/ 1.618 times the blue measured move.

if you look on the monthly you will see (even from the low in 2009) that the blue measured move has been present at every pullback. yes, you read that correct, every pullback except the most recent was the first to fail since this entire bull market run …. does that mean we most definitely pullback from here OR do we explode another 10% into the areas shown above? don’t know … but we are most definitely in rarified air up here.

NASDAQ update

I redid my NASDAQ chart at the request of a friend .. the other night, when I posted it, I just drew the “AB=CD” and figured I would tighten it up over the weekend …I did tighten up the target w/ some more precision.

the AB=CD has been hit.

how did we get this target?

  1. from the low in 2002 we label A. The most recent 2020 highs are B and then C is the low after that pretty quick drop (note, it was one of the fastest percentage moves drop in history) from there we can calculate the AB=CD target. Appears to have been hit ..
  2. from the all low on 10/03/74 we draw the radius of the circle all the way to 2000 .. that’s a BIG rock hitting the water, isn’t it?
  3. from there we draw our circle … once we have the circle we can create the square based on said radius and that is bolded in BLUE.
  4. speed or fan lines originating from the all time low and being based on the geometry of the first impulse move are pretty powerful. as you can see I divided the length of the square into the usual ratio’s and then drew the fan lines from the all time low … take a look at the result.
  5. there is a lot going on w/ these lines and there is a lot more geometry that can be drawn but I don’t want to clog up the chart.

so, net net, pay close attention to the NASDAQ in/around here, fer shure … if the AB=CD pattern fails to the upside there are other targets that I’ll update but for now, this looks like something that we should REALLY pay attention to …

IWM and another upcoming chat w/ JC …

tomorrow, have the opportunity to sit down w/ JC and continue our discussion around Fibonacci and vibrations and patterns …I’ll post the talk after its completion and believe it’s also live streamed on Twitter. We’re doing it after the market closes …

in the last episode he specifically asked that we spend time on the “rock hitting the water” or the “initial ripple” … below, you’ll see the chart that gave us an “idea” of a POTENTIAL stopping point and it’s the “regular” technical analysis. this is the chart that I blogged.

but, in order to REALLY get an appreciation to why this LEVEL is so important and how, perhaps, one can start making that little move towards the cliff to jump into the rabbit hole w/ me I show some more of what’s really going on … not meant to confuse anyone but to visually show what I mean when I say I’ll usually look at 11-12 things before making an investment … I didn’t blog the last two charts because I think it’s just too much information. honestly, that’s the only reason.

Is IWM going to breakout or breakdown? YES. NO. Have no idea but whichever way it DOES GO it’s going to be a wave to catch and surf … fer sher. also, it never hit my Signal Reversal Candle. (SRC) who the heck knows when it’s going to blow …

initial post showing target zones for IWM
target being hit …
the green highlights are qual to the dashed red lines (note – start the “square” at 32 and other numbers …)
the ROCK hitting the water and the waves that result … the ROCK is the initial impulse move off the low on 10/10/2002 … using physics the fundamental frequency is then calculated.
simple calculation from the all time low and “creating” the IWM Musical Scale based on the Equal Octave Scale of Music (multiply each cell by 1.05946) NOTE: the high zone in IWM was equal to the finishing of the 4th octave.

Important Correlation

chart below has Palladium w/ the NYSE Index overlaid on top.

the candles are Palladium and the blue line is the NYSE Index ($NYA)

note, currently, Palladium is correcting pretty steeply … in the past, this has led to the overall stock market to correct also. is this time different?

been watching the XLP/NYA level …

last post: https://bartscharts.com/2021/05/05/xlp-nya-our-favorite-ratio-and-a-twist/

as the market continued to climb to new highs, if you look at the chart below you’ll notice that it did not move to new lows. no, in fact it has been basing since Feb .. almost 6 months. in a truly bullish environment, it would be game on and this ratio would continue lower. it did not …

in fact, it appears to have some strength and starting a breakout to the upside.

THAT, is not a bullish equity move … so, keep you powder dry. if you have been following my blog for a while you know how powerful this ratio (XLP/NYA) has been at warning about inflection points … yes, we have lower targets from the last post, but, for now, certainly appears that the ratio is/has bottomed and a “risk off” mindset appears to be taking hold ..

one last, I went in and fiddled w/ my settings and everything and can’t figure out why all the candles are green? maybe it’s that I’m using a “ratio” but I’m not sure, so I do apologize for any confusion. for whatever reason 4 candles are red …?

make it a good week.

Bart

AMC – update

my last post on AMC: https://bartscharts.com/2021/08/04/amc-heads-up-in-the-zone/

well, it went and hit right at the top – exactly I think – of our target area and is built a series of 3 higher lows (daily) …but we do have an entire “zone” of support in/around 24-28 so this could be a dead cat bounce. give it time …

but, this count is valid and, dare I say, AMC is off to the races …?

Financials – it’s pretty much all that matters – right now

they lead us UP and they lead us DOWN. the banks, financials … it’s that simple.

that being said, the move since March 2020 has been strong and straight up .. kaboom that’s a face ripper higher and, frankly, caught me off guard. why?

well … the ZIRP, the multiple trillions (yes I just typed MULTIPLE trillions) of sovereign debt is beyond anything that we could EVER imagine. folks we are in unchartered territory. again, we are in the vapor ware of experiential historical construct and, from where I sit, it’s UGLY.

but, the band plays on … right?

so, I present, more than likely the most important chart out there .. the banking index.

I had the opportunity and that is what it is .. an an opportunity to sit down w/ JC yesterday and chat … it was blast. but what came to me is while I have all these followers – thank you!- nobody really knows what I’m showing so I’m going to break it down …

BLUE VERTICAL ARROWS – they are measured moves .. every move UP has ended at their conclusion .. so, note around the 155 level – make it simple

DASHED BLACK LINES – just showing you where we take the key nodes and EXTEND from those points … NOTE that 149-155 we have some confluence.

ELLIOTT WAVE – love it, when it works … seriously. if your going to go down that rabbit hole, just learn the corrections … anyway, a VALID (trust me, doesn’t mean it’s a correct count LOL) count shows us finishing 5 waves in around the level sighted before. NOTE – the orange lines is the current wave that we are counting and 1=5 in our target zone.

so, 149-555 BIG DEAL for the financials ….

now .. go on … rock on, capture your stoke folks …

B