BART is a CMT and an expert a "advanced" pattern recognition used w/in the intermarket analysis discipline. He's also an accomplished Business Development Executive providing solutions to a myriad of business markets.
today, the ratio went and smacked right into an hourly pattern SELL (yellow highlight) and a 15 minute butterfly sell (light blue) …
when the ratio goes DOWN the market goes UP. pattern hit perfectly and the rally ensued …
now, it’s time to WATCH the next day or weeks action to see if this pattern fails and the sell off continues OR the ratio continues down causing sustained rally. I don’t recommend being LONG any indices right now as we are in a TIME and PRICE window that might prove significant.
today’s “Musk Induced” Sell off certainly smells like a C wave … that supports a zig-zag correction and it certainly smells like we are in a 4th wave correction … targets of low 40’s and, depending on thrust into this level forewarns of a move below into the low 30’s … we’ll just trust the patterns and the count.
but, for now, the lower targets are opening up nicely …
watch the levels shown on the GBP and the EURO and USD Index to get a feel for what might be coming this week.
IF we hold these levels then expect dollar strength .. EURO and POUND weak.
IF we FAIL on these sell patterns for the EURO and the POUND then the dollar will take a pounding and go right into the level we have been waiting for what seems like a LONG LONG time … stay tuned tonight.
personally, WAITING and have a “hunch” that the levels will fail (USD weakness) and go forth and attack the lower level shown on the USD Index which is the SAME level equal to EVERY move lower in the USD in the past 30+ years. worth waiting for … don’t you think?
you realize I watch the XLP/NYA ratio – a lot – and one of the things that I never did till today is look at the “time” component of the first leg down from the XLP inception. today I did and that “time” component aligns nicely w/ a “May” timeframe to really be on the look out for HUGE support in the ratio (which equates to weakness in equities) just a little further below.
if you look at the most recent action certainly looks like we have one more wave lower into the HUGE SUPPORT zone and then, well, it’s judgment day in my humble opinion.
if you have been following my blog for a while you know I keep a steady eye on DB (Deutsche Bank) for as long as “they” stay solvent the band will play on … that being said, DB is fraught w/ peril as is the entire world economy and financial infrastructure. yes, I just typed that …
DB finished an AB=CD off the all time lows … it starts getting liquidated you might want to run for the hills.
not trading/investing in it … but watching it big time simply due to the second graph below.
our last post on Bitcoin ID’d multiple patterns … multiple AB=CD, a 3 drives and a butterfly sell all in the 65-68 area. in my original post I just took a look at the chart “real time” and said 66-67 but did some work on the intraday charts and 65-68 is the zone. honestly, I wasn’t worried about being too precise because I’m generally looking for this wave to end and 4th wave correction to occur so i can BUY again. right now, I’m going to say that based on the gap down today, that we have a Wave 3 complete and are correcting in Wave 4. again, there are targets a little higher but I’m not going to worry about that now as it appears that this gap down has things going in the 4th wave correction direction.
also, note on the 60 minute chart, that we can certainly label this an island reversal and – if that is the case – then we can expect lower over the coming days and weeks.
now, am I screaming the top is in w/ the Coin? absolutely not … I’m looking to BUY again but found that the risk of continuing w/ my position outweighed the downside. now the hardest part – trying to get in a moving market. that part, for now, is TBD.