A look at Gold …

that was one heck of a breakout from the triangle back down around 1350! yikes … played the triangle well but took profit WAY too early. but, then again, anytime you can say “took profit” then yeah! why would you take profit w/ the mania that is gold … and that’s the reason: “mania.” Sentiment is more bullish gold than anytime in history!

and, believe we had a major (like a 5 count) high back around 1900 and the last “major” correction lasted almost 20 years so … do we have another wave down to complete the correction from a form proportion and balance perspective.

don’t believe Gold is a “sure thing” right now ….stay tuned.

stay tuned as this could be a MOST important high in gold …

Facebook – strong resistance hit

we have 4 aspects of FB that show the ATH to be significant resistance.

two 1.618 extensions, key trend line resistance and a projection from the ATL and while it exceeded .618ab*cd you can see as discussed in this blog it did hit the .68179ab*cd (musical note ratio) so we can see why this level/area was big resistance. I would watch for a close below (weekly close) 250 for a significant pullback to be in place.

XLK / XLP – still has major resistance just a little higher!

we had a sell off on the ratio a couple weeks ago BUT there was not follow thru and we still have the lingering level just a little higher which is the real test … again, until we have a strong weekly close above this level I’m in the conservative/flat camp as far at the NASDAQ and Technology goes …

Dollar Index … here we go

Dollar Index … some big picture considerations.

it’s been almost 3ish years since I posted on the Dollar Index. My last post was the chart below and what’s shown are the many many time and price synergies between the current time and, well, 30 years ago. this chart nailed the high in the dollar and I’ve been watching it just seeing what type of FORM and BALANCE and PROPORTION the index would take … ummm, I still really don’t know but what’s important is the kazillion dollar COVID question – was the “high” a C or a 1. Folks, this is a HUGE deal.

so where are we ….? i don’t know where you are BUT I know that I’m somewhat confused …. is it wave 3 and we are correcting wave 4 or was that an A-B-C correction from 2008 and we are at THE MOST IMPORTANT POINT IN THE US DOLLAR INDEX right here, right now?

for the EWT purest out there, the top in 2017 around 103 is really dependent upon the correction into the 88-89 area. for the bulls, we know that wave 4 cannot overlap the end of wave 1. we don’t close below the end of 1 but we do go thru a little … man, are we cutting hairs here …? we do have the RSI transition into bullish zones but here’s all we need to know. we can’t go below 88-89 because then 4 goes below 1 and we have something else going on …..

the bears …? it’s almost a textbook zig-zag correction and the symmetry in time and price from the last BIG correction (1992-2001) is PERFECT in time and the harmonic .786 of that last big correction make the bears … hungry? The RSI resistance breakout doesn’t help BUT note how low the last rally was … again, the key is support. If we break the dashed green line … this puppy might be diving into the red sea, so to speak.

I DON’T KNOW …but here are two charts that spell out the “big picture” bear case and the bull case … either way, I suspect we’ll know soon.

Bart

SMG – Scott’s

sure looks like we are in a 5th wave …

now that I’m in SoCal doing a TON of SUP Surfing I really don’t spend my weekend like I used to in VA – cutting the grass, giving it fertilizer and aerating, etc … man, I had some very nice lawn going on … 🙂

I used to say, the grass just needs a stiff drink of “Scott’s and Water” …

anyhoo, took a quick look at SMG this AM and I’m going to be teaching some EWT to a fellow professional and this one popped onto the radar so I shot it over to him ….

EWT is great – when it works. that was supposed to be a joke and serious because it’s both.

just know the rules, look for corrective moves in form/balance/proportion and if your counting to may waves of sub waves of blah blah blah then put it aside and WAIT.

this count does not break any rules and is therefore a valid – subjective – interpretation. I do see that we are in a 5th wave. I also see the “why” behind the math and numbers of the most recent top.

TSLA-rocket ship

as I’ve shown in the past on the blog, these type of parabolic – in this case appears like a rocket they built launching into space – moves ALWAYS end in a big liquidation.

I’ve used what we learned in kindergarten on how to create a circle using 3 points and have the 1800’s a being pretty significant resistance for TSLA. that target zone is roughly 15% away. folks, let’s put THAT into perspective, on Friday the stock (in a single day) was up 12% so is 15% or so that unrealistic?

great to be long but … don’t get greedy, this puppy could flip bearish on a dime …let’s face it, this is unsustainable.

note, do believe we have a good “gravity center” as the point in time/space was the reason (from a pattern perspective) for the top shown by the bold blue arrow.

Technology – kaboom

watch this ratio as a key to provide support and resistance for technology names …

yes, technology and specifically the NASDAQ have been ROLLING. that being said, do see some resistance ahead and especially at the level indicated by the XLK / XLP ratio analysis. (technology/ staples) the level shown below has 6 mathematical derived levels all really really close to each other.

“should” provide resistance to this amazing run … that being said, appears like NOTHING can stop this run and this time it’s different and just buy buy buy as it’s all good …

OBTW, glad the REPO and sovereign debt crisis magically just went away …

one last, anyone else find it interesting that, w/ the NASDAQ soaring to new highs the ratio of the XLK/XLP is “barely” at the 50% level. if we had broad participation across the board wouldn’t this (the ratio) be making new highs?

Bart

the ratio has HUGE support

can’t believe it’s been since mid-april since I posted about the market. at the time, I spied a triangle forming which proved to be wrong and it broke down and the market has continued it’s advance. humbling for sure .. when I was working up the triangle thesis I came up w/ the level that’s shown below but, honestly, I shrugged it off. “it’s not going to go all the way down there, I thought .. ” but I do remember saying, “if it could get down there, then what a perfect spot to short the market.”

folks, we are there … don’t hold me to it BUT I have around 12 reasons that this is HUGE support for the XLP/NYA ratio. don’t need to go back over the importance of this ratio … for a summary when ratio goes up risk is off and when ratio goes down risk is on. UP = bad equities. DOWN = good equities. so support should mean bad equities.

put/call ratio at an extreme, sentiment at an extreme and MONSTER support on the XLP/NYA ratio. probability says support holds and equities top and start back down … all for now. let me know if you have any questions.

disclaimer: this is ALL probability but we now have a very well defined street sign. the market COULD blow right thru the level below and it’s a rocket ship takeoff higher … that is also a probability.

so, play it safe … if it bounces strongly in / around this area then short BUT if it closes on, say a weekly basis, below the defined target area w/ conviction then be long. but for NOW, would wait and see which way she goes. hope this helps.

be safe out there …. Bart

Advanced Micro Devices

AMD has been on a TEAR since 2015.

from a wave perspective believe we have a little higher to go for a target of 60-64 and if that is taken out then 77-80. the math of the current high (59.35) is working out so this could be it also … from a wave perspective the current high is 1.618 and exactly 1.732 of wave 3 … I’m labeling this current move as the final waves of 5. a move higher into the shown target zone should do it for now …

AMD should have topped or a little higher for a big target/potential top.