BART is a CMT and an expert a "advanced" pattern recognition used w/in the intermarket analysis discipline. He's also an accomplished Business Development Executive providing solutions to a myriad of business markets.
there was and still is (for those who have the PRIVILEGE to do it) something so amazing about the feeling of going BONS (Boots On Non Skid) of a US Naval Aircraft Carrier.
it wasn’t a ‘bravado” thing as people would believe from the characterization of Naval Aviators but – for me – it was simply amazing. being on the flight deck as engines were turning, the ship was moving and everyone from 18-50 (?) was moving in elegant and frictionless dance .. it was that amazing.
and when you walked up to your jet and there was an AMAZING YOUNG SAILOR (note no identity needed because WE DID NOT CARE) told you your jet was ready you simply took it as fact .. how cool?
so you would jump into the jet and get this multi-million dollar tax payer funded rocket ship ready for the catapult shot and – I believe EVERYONE – asked themselves before Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride “have I done enough to manage the risk” and “yes” was always the answer and for me … BOOM I shot off the pointy end of American Diplomacy. What an amazing privilege and honor.
what does this have to do w/ NFLX? EVERYTHING ….
folks, we have an near perfect AB=CD, a 1.618 extension into the target zone … and, at least for me, an Elliott Wave count that breaks NO rules is present on multiple degrees …
maybe it’s time to PUT your money where your mouth is Bart when we reach the 650-660 area?
if your someone trying to get short – sure looks like the bar is eating you …if your trying or are long looks like you are eating the bar … man, this is interesting.
1/ as a PATTERN recognition expert I can say that the PATTERNS for selling equities FAILED over the past two days.
2/ as an intermarket musician I try to look at everything ….
3/ so lets do that ….
the PATTERNS have failed
Palladium really looks like another leg down … Palladium down has been equated to NASDAQ down and, to a certain extent, equities down
NFLX … man, that pattern is REALLY close …
Banking Index – again, a MASSIVE pattern a little higher …
XLP/NYA – certainly might have BROKEN DOWN (equity strength) of the 7 month channel …
so what do we do ..
sitting on my hands and looking for a simultaneous 1/NFLX target hit and 2/ BANKING INDEX hit and 3/ XLP/NYA target hit and then SHORT the NASDAQ w/ a vengeance ….
until those 3 criteria are hit I’ll continue to lick my wounds on MJ 🙂 but … seeing the “numbers” come together for NFLX makes me think I might have to break out my timing work … as a side note I recommend you go and BUY Connie’s book (novel, war and peace) the 32nd Jewel .. it’s mind blowing and I’m only on the 3rd chapter because I find myself against a wall and then I go and “find” (I wonder how I find them) books on number theory and Planks constant and inverses and … the rabbit hole just spirals so I’m reading Robert Edward Grant’s “Philomath” and – total mind blown – but it’s helping me go back to Ms. Brown’s expose and the TIME factor becomes understandable but – it’s still elusive in nature – so when I get a bunch of numbers coming together I work backwards to figure out – what- exactly – is the VIBRATION that NFLX is rolling along with …..
the KEY is the DATE of the IPO and, I think (I’m still learning) that first “long term” pullback from the initial impulse move … that is where the rock hits the water and the height of the drop, the weight of the rock , the wind, the moon, the tide and ANYTHING that is PRESENT and PHYSICAL interacts w/ the waves to create the moves we see … it’s really that simple.
IF (and trust me it’s a BIG IF) that’s the case then wouldn’t the mathematics of the ancients (note, probably you and me and anyone else present right now … ) that govern natural harmony work on the markets?
YES .. join me going deeper and deeper and deeper into the rabbit hole …
love that saying from the Big Lebowski … what a great movie.
so, here we go folks .. I’ve just ran thru the DJIA, NASDAQ and S&P 500 and ALL have sell patterns.
what does that mean? well, nothing … right? it’s all probability …
but, that’s what we play, probability …so, we have Gartley SELL patterns across the board – they will 1/ work or 2/ not work.
also, our favorite ratio is banging against the bottom of the range that it’s been swimming in for months .. but, take a look , at this lower level you will see an AB=CD, a 3 drives to a bottom and a butterfly BUY on the ratio. so, when the ratio goes UP then the market usually goes down …
we break down below our XLP/NYA level this puppy could rocket ship higher and, then again, the sell patterns work, the XLP/NYA level holds and we start selling off again …
we had a VERY nice pattern coming in around the 370’s and it’s basically failed.
as you can see the high was a 1.27*ab=cd but w/ this strength thru the lower pattern that failed, would WAIT for a daily close below 372 before putting any type of short out there …
w/ the strength in the financials and the Banking Index (shown below) I would be hard pressed to put a short on w/ regard to the banks until the target above is hit … we hit that target, could be game on.
most people think “equities” and that’s it … there are many asset classes that are just starting multi year (decade (?)) runs …so while stocks are correcting and seem to be pretty stretched taking a look at the current environment and just looking at the news we can see their is a BIG battery shortage coming.
usually, a shortage means higher prices … LIT has been on a tear, up almost 380% in the past 1.5 years…. I haven’t even been paying attention till my two Rugger buddies were texting about it last week.
I found an ETF, LIT, that looks pretty liquid and has been on a tear …
trying to get into a moving market is hard to manage risk so, for now, looking for a correction to try and get in … this will, again, be a multi year hold.
also, if your not convinced, I did LIT/NASDAQ and sure looks like we’ve bottomed out and are about to break out and take off from a relative strength perspective.
I’m a Cannabis BULL and out of my portfolio, right now (knock on wood) the only thing losing money is MJ …
so we “survived” by hitting the .786 from the all time low and bounced and now (intraday) we are setting up for a BUY pattern in/around 14.40-14.50 BUT, folks, this one looks like I might have to eat some crow.
hope is my strategy at this point so if we close (weekly basis) below the .786 will probably take this one to the donut shop and eat it … we’ll see.
hope and change baby hope and change ..
I “hope” we find support and go up from 14.33 and also hope that the intraday buy pattern holds and we “change” trend ..
yeah, that worked out great the last time so … probably going to take a loss on this one.
as you all know, I watch the XLP/NYSE Index ratio for key inflection points .. when the ratio goes UP then “staples” (think risk off) have more relative strength and when the ratio goes DOWN then the overall market (think risk on) is stronger from a relative strength perspective
with the recent market action … one would think the ratio would have exploded higher .. well, yeah, no – it hasn’t. still stuck in the range it’s been trading since FEB 2021.
so, for those max BEARS you might want to watch this .. need an upside break out above the red line to get the party started and for the max BULLS need it to break down below the green line …
no idea which way it will go BUT I will tell you I was surprised when I took a peak at it during my nightly cruising of the charts … my “thinking” was that it would have been higher, much higer.
but we trade what we SEE not what we think … so, until the ratio closes above the red line I’m going to say this sell off is a much needed correction that will ultimately need to be bought … and if we break BELOW the green line, then, perhaps game on for another run.