Transports – clear 5 waves down and example of PAYING ATTENTION TO HARMONIC #’s

note, 5 waves down after hitting a MAJOR target zone. last post on Transports: https://bartscharts.com/2021/02/21/transports-a-lot-of-degrees-of-trend-coming-together-heads-up/

note, the symmetry of the moves … wave 1 = wave 5 and the internals of wave 3 are perfect … 1 = 5 and 2=4.

you’ll also see some numbers to the side those are projections showing the clear symmetry in the waves

lastly, we were so so close to hitting the 16180 or 1.618 high .. off by .1 percent. anyway…. if you open your eyes to the harmonic ratio you will see a ton of examples.

just to show you … here’s the USD versus the LOONIE on a LONG TERM monthly and note the top …

yes that’s a MONTHLY AB=CD and then, just for shits and giggles went up and tagged 1.618 and “night night.” Just saying … pattern on a harmonic number, pay attention.

anyhoo .. here’s the chart for the transports …

El Coino (the Coin) aka Bitcoin

that was QUITE the pop today and we are getting close to resolving “one more leg lower” or was that it …

either way, my BULLISH outlook on Bitcoin remains … the chart below is the bearish option and the one I’m going w/ for now … but, we will know soon.

be ready to shift to the “low” is in place and we are advancing in a 5th wave (foot stomp) but the move should be big ..

so, in the more near term bearish you can easily see we did 5 waves down and now we are simply doing a 3 wave B move and then a BIG C wave to come …

I’ve noted a very important level for resistance .. if that holds and we start down lower then it should be impulsive and powerful (like a classic C wave) …

I want to see that “resistance” level noted above to being take out to the upside before going long. truthfully, would love the a-b-c to be in play as it will give us a better AND a rule of life is that the C wave HAS TO BE 5 WAVES (EWT) and it’s usually very violent and harmonic and pretty easy to count so when we do go long, we should have a very risk controlled entry to go long.

yes, big spike today, but don’t get fooled or too bought into the bullish case, just yet.

hope makes sense .. let me know if I’m missing anything.

Bart

XLRE – Real Estate

if the blue measured moves tell us anything … corrections usually occur at their completion. right now, we are at that extreme and we are banging up against a 1.27 extension. would use that level ( or a little higher) for stop out point and would look to sell on a close below 44.50.

night night red hot real estate? nah, never …

Bart

AMC

the masses are at “play” here w/ AMC and what a better laboratory to test harmonic patterns than on THIS stock …

the only caveat – it’s all probability. that being said, w/ the balance of thousands upon thousands of our fellow retail traders holding 2 shares portfolios at risk, we can enter w/ a defined point and another defined point of where we are wrong …

so, the GARTLEY PATTERN buy is 28.80-30.98.

the red lines are back from the weekly/monthly and are horizontal lines placed upon former resistance that should (operative word) act as support .. the polarity principle.

anything below the above and this puppy is cooked …

thanks for reading …

TBT update

last post on TBT: https://bartscharts.com/2021/06/20/tbt-3/

TBT has fallen into the bottom level of BUY zone and I’m long TBT in/around 18.

A lot going on w/ his chart but wanted to show you some “other” geometry that I was working … you see, we can make arcs and develop trend lines using the geometry of the chart but also, using the TIME and PRICE to define the vectors.

in this case, we take the all time low and draw the bottom of the square to intersect the “time” of the high. that will define our arcs and the square. the most important aspect of a square is the 45 degree angle (red line) and that line we then “copy” and “paste” to the bottom right of the first square and, well look at that … it intersects the LOW almost exactly. we also draw another square (and we can/will keep drawing these squares to find the trend lines running the show) and notice how the two 45 degree angles TIMED the low almost exactly .. (FWIW, this was a precise 1.618 AB =CD and a .618 retracement along w/ the same percentage corrective move that drove price into the all time low … came in around 21-22 percent decline.

so, while we do have the traditional “slap a retracement grid and look for the .618 retracement and a whole lot more …

take some time to study this chart .. try to understand it as it’s very helpful, indeed.

and, w/ all this work, I’ll consider it “wrong” if we get a daily close below 16.08 (.786 retracement)good weekend to everyone …

Bart

Bitcoin .. short term still favors the bears

last post on Bitcoin: https://bartscharts.com/2021/06/21/bitcoin-update-3/

nice rally from the fresh lows in the high 20’s .. but, for now, still suggests a correction in a ongoing 5 wave C wave pattern.

if we blow thru 41358 (note futures contract – other prices may vary) on a daily close above then, more probability that the low is in place for an advance.

for now, a near perfect Gartley Sell Pattern exists in around 38-39K

Bart

Bitcoin Update

last post on the Coin: https://bartscharts.com/2021/06/02/bitcoin-need-some-energy-thrust-to-prove-low-in-place/

lot’s of pressure on the Coin … certainly doesn’t look like the low will hold and will plunge into the 20k’s.

here’s the deal, this smells, feels (I’ve been “scrambled” (surfing term being caught inside) by a C-Wave before) and while it’s a fools game to pick tops or bottoms, I’m trying to find the pattern that will give us the best entry.

I’m long the Coin and getting some egg on my face (see scrambled above) but am going to hold to look for some support and the possible low to be in place to begin the march higher … what do we have going:

Note (3) up near the all time highs .. I REALLY LIKE when a new high is made on 3 waves. that is a classic “b” Wave into the new high and then C wave wipes everyone out – like right now.

the wave count (if this is correct) shows 5 distinct waves down from the high … a “guideline” NOT A RULE is that when 3 extends (in this case 1.618) then 1 = 5 (blue arrows into/around 23K)

a RULE is wave 4 (we are in an expanded flat wave 4 correction right now – if correct) is it cannot go below the end of 1 .. (dashed green line) around 15K. If we go thru 15k to the downside then wipe out the count and this is 100% wrong.

I threw a “basic” retracement grid up there and highlighted the blue box for a support zone that would 1/ finish 5 waves down, 2/ finish the C-wave and 3/ end (4) and then we go UP into the 70’s to start …

also, threw in the fundamental frequency targets (dashed purple lines) and also used the largest percentage correction (dashed red arrows to find the mid-20’s looks like a stopping point to give another a shot ..

hope this helps.

Copper … interesting

it’s all about the data folks … in this case we have a monthly continuous contract of Copper Futures. the PATTERN into the low back in 1990-2000 (yes it took 10 years to complete .. read that again – 10 years) is hard to understand w/out anymore data to the left of it’s beginning so it’s hard to figure out if the high in 2010 was a big 3 or big 5.

thus, I’m going to outline two scenarios ..one bearish one bullish.

BEARISH: replace the big bright orange question mark w/ a bigger 5. IF that is the case THEN the most recent high was completing a B wave and we have started a C wave down … C waves are freight trains of beauty and a wonder to behold .. leave nothing in their wake. stand by …

now, hold the phone, what if the big bright orange question mark is/was a 3? then, the BULLISH scenario is we just finished wave 3, are correcting wave 4 and copper is a BUY into new highs … it’s still working it’s way thru the corrective PATTERN that will appear so it’s hard to make a projection but we should NOT go below (1) as that will violate a rule …

so, for now, take note of the blue arrows .. the all time high was, yup, an AB=CD staring from May 1999. It smacked right into that …

kind of in no mans land from a count perspective due to data but expect the two red horizontal lines to act as support due to the polarity principle …

Happy Fathers Day …

also, note EEM .. smacked into a nice target zone in/around 58 and the second chart shows the daily sell signal on EEM.

minor EEM sell pattern on the daily …

last, note the synchronicization between copper and emerging markets … pretty nice correlation.

last, note the FXI (china) has NOT made new highs while Copper and EEM have .. below you can see that high/low inflection points are nicely timed by the Chinese ETF …

so, for now, expect copper weakness for the next couple weeks then we can figure out where we might be from a count. if anyone has really long term copper data please let me know.

Bart