Parabolic Moves

Parabolic moves are amazing … if your short and your on the wave ride it and if your riding the long wave in the emotional fueled rally then find your line and carve …just don’t get greedy.

The fact is parabolic moves never (strong statement) or shall I say ‘most of the time’ don’t end well. I’m going to show the parabolic moves that are literally rocket ships and then walk thru some of the charts from the past that show parabolic moves and their outcomes … what’s interesting is they all really do look the same …and, if you can ride out the opposite side of the tsunami it can and will come back . but do you want to eat it if your on the wrong side of the market? I can’t answer you as that is part of your PERSONAL RISK MINDSET.

I posted on MSFT a few minutes ago about it’s parabolic move and got some VERY angry and nasty messages back. I blocked those people. You see, I really do enjoy blogging and investing. I absolutely LOVE observing human nature. Why mention the past couple sentences … well, you see, I get the occasional thumbs up or comment and somebody might ask a question or two and I enjoy responding. I can see, via analytics, that a LOT of people are visiting the blog page. And, if you notice, there are periods that I go silent and then I’ll start blogging a lot because, well, patterns start to emerge.

But the fact that I got a TON of hate and mocking messages over on Stocktwits feeds more fuel to the fire that a top is approaching. Does that mean tomorrow …? Maybe? Probably not. Next week, next month? Who knows … but it is definitely getting very interesting.

In parabolic moves think of physics and Ps. Ps=sustained power. we had numbers memorized when I flew fighters for the Navy .. what altitude, airspeed, G would give you the BEST turn rate and radius to perform the jet. What sustained power could you work to max perform it …? If you went outside the box you are going to trade something …

I can blog this now because I’m a decade + out of the Navy. Back in the day, off the coast of SoCal we took the jet from 250 feet over the ocean and lit the cans (afterburner) got a ton of speed up and zooooooom up we went. Straight up bullseye (nose 90 degrees high) and we topped out above 60,000 ft. (I’ll leave it at that)

The coolest thing about topping out was the jet was STILL in full afterburner …but guess what, it just wouldn’t go any higher and then it flipped over on its back, flopped around out of control and fell like a stone. Nothing to worry about when your 10 miles above the earth but still a little erie to be honest. What happened? Well Ps went to zero. Yup .. the power to keep the jet climbing was gone. Night night, we were done …. the SAME THING HAPPENS IN THE STOCK MARKET WITH PARABOLIC MOVES.

Don’t believe me…? Hope this is more than enough examples:

Altria (MO)

note: these charts are real time as the move was happening. I try REALLY hard to not “could of, would have, should have” …..I try my best.

I have used this chart in a lot when talking to other fellow risk takers. Look how they look the same and the period between the highs is almost exactly the same from a time perspective.

I did this one for my good friend Andy @seeitmarket …it was during the mania rush that was the run up in Bitcoin. Look familiar? The key is, just like now, I was simply trying to provide a “risk based” mindset of the mania that was bitcoin ….OBTW, I’m long BITCOIN thru Coinbase and I let the entire run go because it was a parabolic emotionally fueled mania. SO I WAITED!

And, well, here is now. I kept the Bitcoin (green line) to show the bearish thump and the fact that it is coming back.

I’m not saying these companies or assets or commodities are going to zero or going out of business. I’m just objectively saying that Sir Isaac Newton has yet to be proven wrong … unless in LEO (low earth orbit) EVERYTHING comes back to earth.

Good thing this doesn’t look parabolic, at all.

TSLA-rocket ship

as I’ve shown in the past on the blog, these type of parabolic – in this case appears like a rocket they built launching into space – moves ALWAYS end in a big liquidation.

I’ve used what we learned in kindergarten on how to create a circle using 3 points and have the 1800’s a being pretty significant resistance for TSLA. that target zone is roughly 15% away. folks, let’s put THAT into perspective, on Friday the stock (in a single day) was up 12% so is 15% or so that unrealistic?

great to be long but … don’t get greedy, this puppy could flip bearish on a dime …let’s face it, this is unsustainable.

note, do believe we have a good “gravity center” as the point in time/space was the reason (from a pattern perspective) for the top shown by the bold blue arrow.

$TSLA – nice BUY pattern emerging

09/10/2017 – here’s an update to TSLA. I know another 16% drop from current levels seems excessive .. BUT in that area we have polarity, a bunch of ratios and a SQUARE ROOT target. Also, if you look closely, we have a WEEKLY gap from 282-285 to monitor. It’s still open.

Over the coming weeks, would certainly LIKE a drop to occur.

Again, not sure (am never sure) if this will occur.  If we lose the first support/buy level then 240’s is a reasonable next target…a weekly close above 372 would negate this possibility.

Bart

 

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07/06/2017 – as you can see below it appeared that TSLA was ready to run … i apologize for not keeping up with this one and you know i hate to do could have would have should have type of stuff BUT I wanted to show you this near picture perfect butterfly sell pattern.

the power is in the 2 1.618 ratio’s coming together .. we have a projection and an extension lying right on top of each other. That usually equals market magic.

if you don’t believe me, ask the blind man because he saw it also …

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02/11/2017 – can’t believe it’s been since April 16 since I blogged about $TSLA.  Tons going on in my life .. all good.

As you can see – the measured move (blue arrows below) stopped the market around 260 and it fell 80 bucks BUT the move out of the 180 area is STRONG and the BULL TREND RSI zones are telling us that this stock (car) has some juice.

Note, i’ts NEVER MONTHLY closed below, basically, 180. Say what you want about the stock and it’s fundamentals (I claim and rightly so DO NOT know a thing about them) BUT a weekly close 280 and/or a MONTHLY close above 275 tells me this puppy should target 307 and then 326 has two key ratio’s coming together.  For the next couple months, would be watching those levels.

WEEKLY close below 250-254 would render the above WRONG.

Cheers and rock on, ok?

Bart

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04/05/2016

As you can see the pattern in/around 173-179 got smoked. Folks, they don’t all work … but you also see I mentioned 153 would be the next stop.

so, patterns work and patterns fail.  want to show you the NUMBERS that led to the next target (I hate the could have would have should have but just want to show) and also note the measured moves UP that TSLA has done.  don’t be greedy, were at an important level right now.

Bart

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so from my fellow geek technician JC he always loves the “from failed breakdowns/ breakouts come strong moves” well here is a possible set up.

as a PATTERN guy what I have found is – totally technical – there is a reason for the market to stop at resistance or support.

in this case for TSLA you can see it’s “respecting” the .618 retracement from the last low … EVERYONE is watching this level and horizontal support.

and, if it breaks down, then “everyone” shorts and right below this breakdown level?  3 patterns coming in 173-179 ….

  • pay attention to the “shaded blue triangles” as they represent equality in both PRICE and TIME.  Appears 2/10 is the time frame for this level to be really equal in price and time. TBD …
  • this type of pattern is a classic “FLAT” Elliott Wave correction … so, if TSLA is to go higher, believe this level needs to hold.

watch this level closely.

as a corollary, if we have a daily close below 173 then we have 153 and then, potentially, lower in the future.

let me know if you have any questions.

B

Page_16-02-01_10-47-58

$TSLA – batteries appear charged UPDATE to the UPDATE and the POWER Of 2 1.618’s

07/06/2017 – as you can see below it appeared that TSLA was ready to run … i apologize for not keeping up with this one and you know i hate to do could have would have should have type of stuff BUT I wanted to show you this near picture perfect butterfly sell pattern.

the power is in the 2 1.618 ratio’s coming together .. we have a projection and an extension lying right on top of each other. That usually equals market magic.

if you don’t believe me, ask the blind man because he saw it also …

____________________________________________________________________________________________

02/11/2017 – can’t believe it’s been since April 16 since I blogged about $TSLA.  Tons going on in my life .. all good.

As you can see – the measured move (blue arrows below) stopped the market around 260 and it fell 80 bucks BUT the move out of the 180 area is STRONG and the BULL TREND RSI zones are telling us that this stock (car) has some juice.

Note, i’ts NEVER MONTHLY closed below, basically, 180. Say what you want about the stock and it’s fundamentals (I claim and rightly so DO NOT know a thing about them) BUT a weekly close 280 and/or a MONTHLY close above 275 tells me this puppy should target 307 and then 326 has two key ratio’s coming together.  For the next couple months, would be watching those levels.

WEEKLY close below 250-254 would render the above WRONG.

Cheers and rock on, ok?

Bart

page_17-02-11_10-20-16

 

page_17-02-11_10-29-40



04/05/2016

As you can see the pattern in/around 173-179 got smoked. Folks, they don’t all work … but you also see I mentioned 153 would be the next stop.

so, patterns work and patterns fail.  want to show you the NUMBERS that led to the next target (I hate the could have would have should have but just want to show) and also note the measured moves UP that TSLA has done.  don’t be greedy, were at an important level right now.

Bart

Page_16-04-05_22-19-58

Page_16-04-05_22-16-51




 

so from my fellow geek technician JC he always loves the “from failed breakdowns/ breakouts come strong moves” well here is a possible set up.

as a PATTERN guy what I have found is – totally technical – there is a reason for the market to stop at resistance or support.

in this case for TSLA you can see it’s “respecting” the .618 retracement from the last low … EVERYONE is watching this level and horizontal support.

and, if it breaks down, then “everyone” shorts and right below this breakdown level?  3 patterns coming in 173-179 ….

  • pay attention to the “shaded blue triangles” as they represent equality in both PRICE and TIME.  Appears 2/10 is the time frame for this level to be really equal in price and time. TBD …
  • this type of pattern is a classic “FLAT” Elliott Wave correction … so, if TSLA is to go higher, believe this level needs to hold.

watch this level closely.

as a corollary, if we have a daily close below 173 then we have 153 and then, potentially, lower in the future.

let me know if you have any questions.

B

Page_16-02-01_10-47-58

$TSLA – batteries appear charged UPDATE

02/11/2017 – can’t believe it’s been since April 16 since I blogged about $TSLA.  Tons going on in my life .. all good.

As you can see – the measured move (blue arrows below) stopped the market around 260 and it fell 80 bucks BUT the move out of the 180 area is STRONG and the BULL TREND RSI zones are telling us that this stock (car) has some juice.

Note, i’ts NEVER MONTHLY closed below, basically, 180. Say what you want about the stock and it’s fundamentals (I claim and rightly so DO NOT know a thing about them) BUT a weekly close 280 and/or a MONTHLY close above 275 tells me this puppy should target 307 and then 326 has two key ratio’s coming together.  For the next couple months, would be watching those levels.

WEEKLY close below 250-254 would render the above WRONG.

Cheers and rock on, ok?

Bart

page_17-02-11_10-20-16

 

page_17-02-11_10-29-40



04/05/2016

As you can see the pattern in/around 173-179 got smoked. Folks, they don’t all work … but you also see I mentioned 153 would be the next stop.

so, patterns work and patterns fail.  want to show you the NUMBERS that led to the next target (I hate the could have would have should have but just want to show) and also note the measured moves UP that TSLA has done.  don’t be greedy, were at an important level right now.

Bart

Page_16-04-05_22-19-58

Page_16-04-05_22-16-51




 

so from my fellow geek technician JC he always loves the “from failed breakdowns/ breakouts come strong moves” well here is a possible set up.

as a PATTERN guy what I have found is – totally technical – there is a reason for the market to stop at resistance or support.

in this case for TSLA you can see it’s “respecting” the .618 retracement from the last low … EVERYONE is watching this level and horizontal support.

and, if it breaks down, then “everyone” shorts and right below this breakdown level?  3 patterns coming in 173-179 ….

  • pay attention to the “shaded blue triangles” as they represent equality in both PRICE and TIME.  Appears 2/10 is the time frame for this level to be really equal in price and time. TBD …
  • this type of pattern is a classic “FLAT” Elliott Wave correction … so, if TSLA is to go higher, believe this level needs to hold.

watch this level closely.

as a corollary, if we have a daily close below 173 then we have 153 and then, potentially, lower in the future.

let me know if you have any questions.

B

Page_16-02-01_10-47-58

$TSLA

04/05/2016

As you can see the pattern in/around 173-179 got smoked. Folks, they don’t all work … but you also see I mentioned 153 would be the next stop.

so, patterns work and patterns fail.  want to show you the NUMBERS that led to the next target (I hate the could have would have should have but just want to show) and also note the measured moves UP that TSLA has done.  don’t be greedy, were at an important level right now.

Bart

Page_16-04-05_22-19-58

Page_16-04-05_22-16-51




 

so from my fellow geek technician JC he always loves the “from failed breakdowns/ breakouts come strong moves” well here is a possible set up.

as a PATTERN guy what I have found is – totally technical – there is a reason for the market to stop at resistance or support.

in this case for TSLA you can see it’s “respecting” the .618 retracement from the last low … EVERYONE is watching this level and horizontal support.

and, if it breaks down, then “everyone” shorts and right below this breakdown level?  3 patterns coming in 173-179 ….

  • pay attention to the “shaded blue triangles” as they represent equality in both PRICE and TIME.  Appears 2/10 is the time frame for this level to be really equal in price and time. TBD …
  • this type of pattern is a classic “FLAT” Elliott Wave correction … so, if TSLA is to go higher, believe this level needs to hold.

watch this level closely.

as a corollary, if we have a daily close below 173 then we have 153 and then, potentially, lower in the future.

let me know if you have any questions.

B

Page_16-02-01_10-47-58

$TSLA polarity …

if you have been reading my blog you’ll find that $TSLA has had it way w/ the patterns … in fact I blogged that $TSLA took me to the octagon.

so, take this post w/ a grain of salt …

Polarity is powerful … when support fails it becomes resistance AND/OR when resistance fails it becomes support.

we have a 2 year area of support that failed and should now act as resistance.

Page_16-02-23_19-27-00

$TSLA

so from my fellow geek technician JC he always loves the “from failed breakdowns/ breakouts come strong moves” well here is a possible set up.

as a PATTERN guy what I have found is – totally technical – there is a reason for the market to stop at resistance or support.

in this case for TSLA you can see it’s “respecting” the .618 retracement from the last low … EVERYONE is watching this level and horizontal support.

and, if it breaks down, then “everyone” shorts and right below this breakdown level?  3 patterns coming in 173-179 ….

  • pay attention to the “shaded blue triangles” as they represent equality in both PRICE and TIME.  Appears 2/10 is the time frame for this level to be really equal in price and time. TBD …
  • this type of pattern is a classic “FLAT” Elliott Wave correction … so, if TSLA is to go higher, believe this level needs to hold.

watch this level closely.

as a corollary, if we have a daily close below 173 then we have 153 and then, potentially, lower in the future.

let me know if you have any questions.

B

Page_16-02-01_10-47-58

A look at the high flyers in 2014 – all lower significantly!

I am neither bearish nor bullish.  I am a pattern recognition trader that puts everything into the context of human behavior.  the rally from 2009 is so over stretched that 2014 will bring, potentially, a down side move of enormous proportions.  There I have said it …simply based on the MONTHLY (read long term) SELL PATTERNS present this is going to be a THUMP.  If the PATTERNS FAIL (which they do, obviously) then the band will play on … I just don’t see it happening and, quite frankly, i am alone in my thinking.

The bullishness present RIGHT NOW is the most extreme it’s been in the history of the stock market …do you want me to type it again?  Here’s a look at the high flyers and, again, I think they will all be lower, significantly.  Hope I’m wrong…

GOOG: note the same pattern and measured move that is present.  Tried at/around 925 and got my clock cleaned.  in prove it mode now … but sure looks done.

AMZN: a 5 wave count is present and I was looking for a top lower, but got run over by the euphoria present in the market.  this doesn’t change the count, it’s just going to hurt that much more …

PCLN: again, a clear 5 wave count present and a high flyer of AMAZING proportions .. perhaps a little higher to targets shown?  but 5th wave is weakening.

TSLA: bounce occurred as expected .. believe it will start, in earnest once the new year rolls around.

TWTR: bouncing today, but possible count complete.  believe this stock is going to get smoked

FB: unorthodox count but one that makes sense .. basically, this entire move has been a corrective expanded flat and FB will go to single digits.

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