Parabolic Moves

Parabolic moves are amazing … if your short and your on the wave ride it and if your riding the long wave in the emotional fueled rally then find your line and carve …just don’t get greedy.

The fact is parabolic moves never (strong statement) or shall I say ‘most of the time’ don’t end well. I’m going to show the parabolic moves that are literally rocket ships and then walk thru some of the charts from the past that show parabolic moves and their outcomes … what’s interesting is they all really do look the same …and, if you can ride out the opposite side of the tsunami it can and will come back . but do you want to eat it if your on the wrong side of the market? I can’t answer you as that is part of your PERSONAL RISK MINDSET.

I posted on MSFT a few minutes ago about it’s parabolic move and got some VERY angry and nasty messages back. I blocked those people. You see, I really do enjoy blogging and investing. I absolutely LOVE observing human nature. Why mention the past couple sentences … well, you see, I get the occasional thumbs up or comment and somebody might ask a question or two and I enjoy responding. I can see, via analytics, that a LOT of people are visiting the blog page. And, if you notice, there are periods that I go silent and then I’ll start blogging a lot because, well, patterns start to emerge.

But the fact that I got a TON of hate and mocking messages over on Stocktwits feeds more fuel to the fire that a top is approaching. Does that mean tomorrow …? Maybe? Probably not. Next week, next month? Who knows … but it is definitely getting very interesting.

In parabolic moves think of physics and Ps. Ps=sustained power. we had numbers memorized when I flew fighters for the Navy .. what altitude, airspeed, G would give you the BEST turn rate and radius to perform the jet. What sustained power could you work to max perform it …? If you went outside the box you are going to trade something …

I can blog this now because I’m a decade + out of the Navy. Back in the day, off the coast of SoCal we took the jet from 250 feet over the ocean and lit the cans (afterburner) got a ton of speed up and zooooooom up we went. Straight up bullseye (nose 90 degrees high) and we topped out above 60,000 ft. (I’ll leave it at that)

The coolest thing about topping out was the jet was STILL in full afterburner …but guess what, it just wouldn’t go any higher and then it flipped over on its back, flopped around out of control and fell like a stone. Nothing to worry about when your 10 miles above the earth but still a little erie to be honest. What happened? Well Ps went to zero. Yup .. the power to keep the jet climbing was gone. Night night, we were done …. the SAME THING HAPPENS IN THE STOCK MARKET WITH PARABOLIC MOVES.

Don’t believe me…? Hope this is more than enough examples:

Altria (MO)

note: these charts are real time as the move was happening. I try REALLY hard to not “could of, would have, should have” …..I try my best.

I have used this chart in a lot when talking to other fellow risk takers. Look how they look the same and the period between the highs is almost exactly the same from a time perspective.

I did this one for my good friend Andy @seeitmarket …it was during the mania rush that was the run up in Bitcoin. Look familiar? The key is, just like now, I was simply trying to provide a “risk based” mindset of the mania that was bitcoin ….OBTW, I’m long BITCOIN thru Coinbase and I let the entire run go because it was a parabolic emotionally fueled mania. SO I WAITED!

And, well, here is now. I kept the Bitcoin (green line) to show the bearish thump and the fact that it is coming back.

I’m not saying these companies or assets or commodities are going to zero or going out of business. I’m just objectively saying that Sir Isaac Newton has yet to be proven wrong … unless in LEO (low earth orbit) EVERYTHING comes back to earth.

Good thing this doesn’t look parabolic, at all.

AAPL

AAPL ‘should’ (operative word) find a support level HERE or a little lower

we all know that AAPL is responsible for a LOT of the point count out there … looking at the XLP/NYSE Index ratio and also the NYSE Index and it’s .382 retracement w/ the measured percentage move of 2000-2003 and the long term log trend line certainly looks like we should find some support HERE and NOW.

if these levels give away, it’s really not a good thing … read that last sentence again … they could very well give away. massive liquidation occurring right now. so … the “levels are the levels” but in this type of environment it’s probably a good thing to wait for a SRC on a weekly basis or something like that …

I’m simply trying (the operative word) to be unbiased and find SUPPORT levels that will stop this insanity. from there we can figure out the type of move (corrective, impulsive, etc.) and make detailed projections .. right now, am using measured moves from weekly/monthlies and then geometry to find the levels.

I am NOT advocating BUYing – just yet.

Bart

AAPL and GOOG patterns completing …

here was the geometry for the top in AAPL:

http://bartscharts.com/2013/08/20/sir-issac-newton-and-aapl-fell-from-the-tree/

here was the geometry for the low in AAPL:

April 7 2013 AAPL daily April 7 2013 AAPL monthly

as we approached the low a very symmetrical 3 drives to a bottom appeared:

dec 06 2013 AAPL bottom

the “first” top that appeared gave us a sell signal and about 70 bucks but the market moved up and higher …now, we are completing another pattern along w/ returning to the trend line on AAPL.  So, this is a very crucial juncture for the market …

Dec 06 2013 AAPL Dec 06 2013 AAPL trend line

GOOG — how UnAmerican can you get – trying to short GOOG?  Well, it’s just numbers and patterns so guess what we are “there” again w/ GOOG so after the near knockout punch of a simple 100 point gap in your face – why not?

here’s the blog of the “next” target:

http://bartscharts.com/2013/10/21/more-pumpkin-soup-added-a-new-ingredient-to-the-recipe-goog/

here’s the update:

Main20131206051946