Well the count will either be correct or it won’t (yea I know, dugh) but .. here’s the 60 minute GART SELL PATTERN that hit so IF this pattern works THEN JPM should start back down which will put pressure on all the banks. IF this PATTERN FAILS then expect the daily .618 and .786 above to get attacked and, potentially send JPM off to new highs.
But, for now, pay attention the SELL PATTERN present on JPM:
Supposedly … who knows what is true these days .. 1000’s of banks are underwater. OK … whatever.
Here’s when we look at the CHART and we ask should we BUY or SELL or DO NOTHING.
KRE sliced thru the first “potential support” and now we approach, what I think, is the KEY to the KRE. Here’s why:
58.76 – if you look at the purple measured moves you will see that EVERY major swing down has been 58.76%. I’ve used the “close” in 2008 as I’m not sure if that is a good print or not .. either way, that measured move nails EVERY LOW
1.618 projection lands … right at the 58.76 correction.
.707 (square root of 2 = 1.4142 and 1/1.4142 = .707) just a little above this level
Long term LOG trend line right at .. all the above
Note the VOLUME – is that a capitulation spike in selling volume?
RSI sitting at the crucial support level for the ENTIRE bullish move since 2009
Nobody in their right mind is looking to BUY the banks but, then again, I can guarantee you NOBODY was looking to buy in March 2009. Maybe there was someone? Perhaps … me?
DATE STAMPED 3 MR 2009. (March 3, 2009)
So … watch the THRUST coming into this level, maybe wait for a signal reversal candle (bullish).
What I can say is IF we blast thru this level (certainly “feels” like we should) then, yeah, a lot of banks are looking at some tough times and 28 and then 21 are the next targets.
Pay attention to this PATTERN on JPM daily. The past 3 major tops have gapped down and the last two have created island reversals. IF (the BIG IF) we gap down today and leave and “island” then this could be very troubling for the banks and, historically, has led to a pretty big down move in JPM.
No idea if that will happen in the coming days but, again, the TIME is perfect in it’s relation to the the all time high PATTERN and the price is off just a wee bit .. essentially we have the same exact same set up as the high .. now, TIME will tell.
on a monthly level, the “blue measured move” certainly looks to be harmonic w/ JPM. the most recent high in/around mid 140’s was exactly equal to the blue measured move … again, keep an eye on JPM as it’s appears to be the big dog helping out the troubling regional and smaller banks.
If (again the BIG IF) we gap down in JPM to create an island then this big dog could be signaling a much bigger credit crunch on the way.