Tag: KRE

Banks/Financials – July 27, 2023

Saw the gap up today – pretty darn impressive – so I immediately went to the XLF and “figured” that it would have gapped up w/ everyone else and blew over the .786 retracement and off to the races. IT DID NOT. Hmmmmm

Because of that, I cruised around JNK, XLF, $BKX and KRE and saw a lot of TIME convergences and SELL PATTERNS completing ….add that to the amazingly insanely bullish sentiment out there and, well, is this is easy as it looks to get long, set it and forget it?

Not until the financials and Junk Bonds show strength and really rally …until then, I’ll hold my powder w/ regard to the broad equity indices.

WATCH THESE PATTERNS for a clue to what is next.

The banks/financials ALWAYS lead us UP and, also, lead us DOWN.

for the two charts above, note the TIME component of the ABCD “basic” projection …

below is the KBW Banking Index. Same picture but spent a little bit more “time” on the “time” aspect (get it, that was supposed to be funny) and noticed that, since, basically, last year the TIME component of pullbacks have been pretty consistent (see blue arrows) and, now we have an ABCD in price and time along w/ some other “basic” static cycles.

the other thing I want you to study is the “fractal” nature of these two patterns.

pretty key level for the Banks/Financials:

Junk Bonds have tried to break out 8 times from the .618 level. If they break down below the gap zone shown, this could be a big deal. Note the green horizontal lines – no swing low has been broken since Oct 2022. So …. keep an eye on the Junk Bonds

JPM – May 21, 2023

This is a long term monthly count from JPM that stretches back 50+ years.

Folks, certainly doesn’t “feel” like a 5 wave move in JPM is complete but the count doesn’t break any rules so … 5 waves complete?

Here’s the daily chart below – calling attention to the island reversals and the island reversals that could be at play – right now. Here’s the last post on it: https://bartscharts.com/2023/05/04/jpm-may-04-2023/

Well the count will either be correct or it won’t (yea I know, dugh) but .. here’s the 60 minute GART SELL PATTERN that hit so IF this pattern works THEN JPM should start back down which will put pressure on all the banks. IF this PATTERN FAILS then expect the daily .618 and .786 above to get attacked and, potentially send JPM off to new highs.

But, for now, pay attention the SELL PATTERN present on JPM:

KRE Regional Banks ETF – May 12, 2023

Last post on KRE: https://bartscharts.com/2023/04/30/kre-regional-banks-etf-april-30-2023/

Supposedly … who knows what is true these days .. 1000’s of banks are underwater. OK … whatever.

Here’s when we look at the CHART and we ask should we BUY or SELL or DO NOTHING.

KRE sliced thru the first “potential support” and now we approach, what I think, is the KEY to the KRE. Here’s why:

  • 58.76 – if you look at the purple measured moves you will see that EVERY major swing down has been 58.76%. I’ve used the “close” in 2008 as I’m not sure if that is a good print or not .. either way, that measured move nails EVERY LOW
  • 1.618 projection lands … right at the 58.76 correction.
  • .707 (square root of 2 = 1.4142 and 1/1.4142 = .707) just a little above this level
  • Long term LOG trend line right at .. all the above
  • Note the VOLUME – is that a capitulation spike in selling volume?
  • RSI sitting at the crucial support level for the ENTIRE bullish move since 2009

Nobody in their right mind is looking to BUY the banks but, then again, I can guarantee you NOBODY was looking to buy in March 2009. Maybe there was someone? Perhaps … me?

DATE STAMPED 3 MR 2009. (March 3, 2009)

Here’s why:

So … watch the THRUST coming into this level, maybe wait for a signal reversal candle (bullish).

What I can say is IF we blast thru this level (certainly “feels” like we should) then, yeah, a lot of banks are looking at some tough times and 28 and then 21 are the next targets.

Good weekend to all – B

JPM – May 04, 2023

Pay attention to this PATTERN on JPM daily. The past 3 major tops have gapped down and the last two have created island reversals. IF (the BIG IF) we gap down today and leave and “island” then this could be very troubling for the banks and, historically, has led to a pretty big down move in JPM.

No idea if that will happen in the coming days but, again, the TIME is perfect in it’s relation to the the all time high PATTERN and the price is off just a wee bit .. essentially we have the same exact same set up as the high .. now, TIME will tell.

on a monthly level, the “blue measured move” certainly looks to be harmonic w/ JPM. the most recent high in/around mid 140’s was exactly equal to the blue measured move … again, keep an eye on JPM as it’s appears to be the big dog helping out the troubling regional and smaller banks.

If (again the BIG IF) we gap down in JPM to create an island then this big dog could be signaling a much bigger credit crunch on the way.

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