Traders Tip – “Hidden” Levels … or Pattern Polarity

the gifts have been unwrapped and food a plenty has been consumed … the rest of the family is watching TV and were about to go walk the beach. rained last night so no surfing .. bacteria blows.

anyway, I’ve received more than a couple emails asking about the different strategies I laid out in my last post around a PATTERN level and how you could work them into your strategies.

in this case, let’s take a look at the chart below – the NASDAQ composite. I remember, quite vividly, blogging about the 6200 level on the NASDAQ. Why? Well, much like our NYSE Index pattern, you can see that the Nazzie had a very nice pattern from the all time low (AB=CD and 1.27 extension) the market didn’t even pause and blew right thru it …but, notice how it came back and touched it and then exploded higher!

that’s our Traders Tip – this level was ‘hidden’ in that it was a pattern that came from the low in 1974 and also the BC extension from 2000-2002. the market WILL come back to these levels and, the highest probability trade is to trade AT THAT LEVEL and go in the direction of the original break of the pattern. in this case, go long at the level.

notice what happens when we use a .618 projection of the AB leg .. in his case .618 AB at 4238. Just like the AB=CD, the market blew thru it and then came back to kiss it and then off it went … there are examples of this everywhere. the longer the time frame to create the pattern-the more important the level.

one last – notice the 1.618 AB = CD at 9315 … per my last post, around 3% higher, you’ll have a KEY level to trade short, tighten stop if long and wait for a monthly signal reversal candle, or do nothing and wait for a signal reversal candle or wait to see if the market blows thru this level and then patiently wait for the market to return to this level to go long …

I respect and honor all religions … so, Happy Festivus and enjoy family friends over the Holidays.

Bart

also, look at this clear as day SELL PATTERN on the Nasdaq / XLP ratio. when the blue boxed level gets hit, then SELL the NASDAQ. If, the 1.618 Nasdaq projection AND the Nasdaq/XLP level are being hit at the same time, your probability of an important level to short increases.

Pay Attention to Palladium and the target that it hit …

Palladium and the NASDAQ have tracked nicely .. watch the upcoming target closely

09/28/2019 – we blogged about this long term target back in March. It was hit on Friday. When we have two 1.618 projections and extensions coming together – it should be a big deal. The other to note is the fact that we have what’s called a “butterfly sell” pattern that hit on the daily and smacked right into the long term targets from 1996. If we get a weekly close below the 1604 ish level, then advise to become defensive. Updated charts below:

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would watch the target above, very closely, along w/ the NASDAQ weakness in the coming days/weeks.

NASDAQ – huge trend line support being attacked

12/16/2018 – take note of the MONTHLY LOG scale on the NASDAQ Composite.  I’ve outlined 3 critical areas to monitor on the chart.  Also, you’ll see in the second chart that back last March we ID’d the 7600 ish area as the target zone.  The market went another, roughly 5% and then ran into another extension ratio. The square root of 3 or 1.732.  It did a 173.2 percent extension from 2000-2002.  My bust as this fit nicely into an AB=CD projection that was tracking right along w/ the QQQ.  And, I know most everyone was unable to hear back in March someone advising caution … no big deal.  Anyway, some pretty big support from our LOG trendlines are coming in … it certainly looks ‘heavy’ and as you can see from my previous blog about the XLP/NASDAQ it looks like it has some more room to go … the breaking of these LOG trend lines (on a weekly basis – wait for the end of the week) will signal some heavy selling pressure to come in …

the march to 6200 continues … an important UPDATE 04/28/2017 @seeitmarket

04/28/2017 – an update w/ the gang @seeitmarket

https://www.seeitmarket.com/nasdaq-composite-nearing-major-price-target-16812/

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03/21/2017 – update

if you look at the chart below … you’ll see the blue arrow measured move from the 2002-2007 hit pretty much spot on ….

I add this to the “march” to 6200 because, well, I still think that is the target.

as for my followers – YOU know that I hate to give you the ‘could have’ and ‘would have’ and ‘should have’ w/ technical analysis …I have been pretty busy over the past month.  So, I hastily sent this to a few friends around the banking index in a moment of free time….. the reason I’m showing this is two fold:

  • PATTERNS are all PROBABILITY ….
  • the BANKS lead us UP and they lead us down …
  • I really really don’t want to show anyone the world of ‘could of’ and ‘would of’ and ‘should of’ … but do want to give some heads up ..
  • just trying to help folks …

The “greatest gift is gold ” U2 ….

Use a stop.

Good night …

B




 

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perhaps 5866 stops it but folks .. we have a perfect sell PATTERN at/around 6200 ish.

also, note the to cycle that got DESTROYED .. this puppy has some more juice.

short term – 3-5 pullback for a couple months then higher to tag the upper target?

anyway – here’s the picture … UP UP and AWAY.

just buy, the market will NEVER GO DOWN and IT ALWAYS GOES UP!  🙂

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the march to 6200 continues … an important UPDATE 03/21/2017

03/21/2017 – update

if you look at the chart below … you’ll see the blue arrow measured move from the 2002-2007 hit pretty much spot on ….

I add this to the “march” to 6200 because, well, I still think that is the target.

as for my followers – YOU know that I hate to give you the ‘could have’ and ‘would have’ and ‘should have’ w/ technical analysis …I have been pretty busy over the past month.  So, I hastily sent this to a few friends around the banking index in a moment of free time….. the reason I’m showing this is two fold:

  • PATTERNS are all PROBABILITY ….
  • the BANKS lead us UP and they lead us down …
  • I really really don’t want to show anyone the world of ‘could of’ and ‘would of’ and ‘should of’ … but do want to give some heads up ..
  • just trying to help folks …

The “greatest gift is gold ” U2 ….

Use a stop.

Good night …

B




 

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perhaps 5866 stops it but folks .. we have a perfect sell PATTERN at/around 6200 ish.

also, note the to cycle that got DESTROYED .. this puppy has some more juice.

short term – 3-5 pullback for a couple months then higher to tag the upper target?

anyway – here’s the picture … UP UP and AWAY.

just buy, the market will NEVER GO DOWN and IT ALWAYS GOES UP!  🙂

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the march to 6200 continues …

perhaps 5866 stops it but folks .. we have a perfect sell PATTERN at/around 6200 ish.

also, note the to cycle that got DESTROYED .. this puppy has some more juice.

short term – 3-5 pullback for a couple months then higher to tag the upper target?

anyway – here’s the picture … UP UP and AWAY.

just buy, the market will NEVER GO DOWN and IT ALWAYS GOES UP!  🙂

page_17-02-13_22-24-59

lot’s of cool math, music and square roots – the NASDAQ getting ready to run?

it was ALL THE WAY back in Feb 2015 that I did a post on the upcoming resistance of the NASDAQ and then the breakout to new highs … did it for Andy @seeitmarket here:  http://www.seeitmarket.com/nasdaq-trend-line-converging-with-2000-high-breakout-14142/

in that post I wrote:

“let’s remember that this is a 40+ year chart, so setting up that move could take some time.”

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one could argue it took almost 20 months …sheesh. anyway, let’s take a look at some “stuff”

how “strong” is the NASDAQ?  Do a ratio analysis quick look:

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what are we doing here:

  • make a ratio: NASDAQ / DJIA
    • IF chart going HIGHER THEN the NASDAQ is stronger than the DJIA
    • IF chart going LOWER THEN the NASDAQ is weaker than the DJIA
    • NOTE, we’ve been slowly and steadily stronger than the DJIA (chart doesn’t lie) but NOTE there has been no BIG move, yet.
    • Stair Steps UP (where no swing low is broken) are powerful indicators of an underlying trend ….this trend is strong in a relative strength sense…
    • folks, again, IT TOOK 14 YEARS for the NASDAQ relative strength to retrace .382 percent of the 2000 blow off tech top.  Slow and steady move higher …
    • HERE’S the KEY …note the RSI.  the support transition that has occurred tells you that the market has possibly shifted into a much more bullish mode and is one that should be noted and taken seriously!  frankly, we might be on the verge of a big parabolic move like 2000 … g
  • PATTERNS work ….note the blue shaded areas, those are “likely” targets for this move … could it go to new all time highs? Yes, the RATIO could do that but, for now, let’s pay attention to the breakout about to occur at the .382 (red line)

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the chart above is a “long term” LOG chart of the NASDAQ from it’s all time low …

  • note the two red trend lines.  the lower trend line is pretty powerful and price is just clinging to it …with this breakout to a new high I believe the NASDAQ has, at a minimum 10% move coming into the 6100-6200 level.
  • also – NOTE the FRACTAL on the RSI.  It certainly appears to be doing the “exact” same move ..
    • a high, a couple bumps and then a dump into a low and then a move higher to build negative divergence.

6100-6200 represents THE AB=CD from the all time low and a 1.27 extension from the 2000 high … as a pattern recognition expert – this SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANT RESISTANCE.

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Palladium and NASDAQ and AAPL Oh My ….

Palladium and AAPL and NAZZIE and XLK (tech ETF) – are VERY interesting right now.

  • Palladium – CLEAR 5 waves up ….
  • Note the charts below – while not exact they do trend the same and while at times leading and lagging each other, once they do turn they sync and roll.
  • Note, the XLK and PALLADIUM.
    • They are almost exact coming into the lows in 2003 and all the way up into 2008 and then down into 2009
    • The most interesting aspect is the big corrective move down in Palladium in 2011-2012.  Note how XLK paused and consolidated and then took off.
    • What’s happening now …?  Palladium has collapsed – big. And XLK has paused and held the highs … with XLK showing a clear 5 wave move up we might be on the verge of a big move in technology.  (hint hint: perhaps the target on AAPL is a BIG LOW and off they go?)

Charts – check em’ out and draw your own inclusion.

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Super Full Moon Going into Close tomorrow

microsupermoon-sciarpetti-nasa-photo-of-the-day

 

Super Full Moon going into the close tomorrow … the only thing I’ll point out is 1) it’s going to be volatile (up or down) and we have a sell pattern on the NASDAQ shown below.  What does this mean? Simple folks…it means I know exactly where I’m wrong.

If PATTERN works then NASDAQ should start to sell off …

If PATTERN fails then we go higher …

Simple?

B

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