if your someone trying to get short – sure looks like the bar is eating you …if your trying or are long looks like you are eating the bar … man, this is interesting.
1/ as a PATTERN recognition expert I can say that the PATTERNS for selling equities FAILED over the past two days.
2/ as an intermarket musician I try to look at everything ….
3/ so lets do that ….
the PATTERNS have failed
Palladium really looks like another leg down … Palladium down has been equated to NASDAQ down and, to a certain extent, equities down
NFLX … man, that pattern is REALLY close …
Banking Index – again, a MASSIVE pattern a little higher …
XLP/NYA – certainly might have BROKEN DOWN (equity strength) of the 7 month channel …
so what do we do ..
sitting on my hands and looking for a simultaneous 1/NFLX target hit and 2/ BANKING INDEX hit and 3/ XLP/NYA target hit and then SHORT the NASDAQ w/ a vengeance ….
until those 3 criteria are hit I’ll continue to lick my wounds on MJ 🙂 but … seeing the “numbers” come together for NFLX makes me think I might have to break out my timing work … as a side note I recommend you go and BUY Connie’s book (novel, war and peace) the 32nd Jewel .. it’s mind blowing and I’m only on the 3rd chapter because I find myself against a wall and then I go and “find” (I wonder how I find them) books on number theory and Planks constant and inverses and … the rabbit hole just spirals so I’m reading Robert Edward Grant’s “Philomath” and – total mind blown – but it’s helping me go back to Ms. Brown’s expose and the TIME factor becomes understandable but – it’s still elusive in nature – so when I get a bunch of numbers coming together I work backwards to figure out – what- exactly – is the VIBRATION that NFLX is rolling along with …..
the KEY is the DATE of the IPO and, I think (I’m still learning) that first “long term” pullback from the initial impulse move … that is where the rock hits the water and the height of the drop, the weight of the rock , the wind, the moon, the tide and ANYTHING that is PRESENT and PHYSICAL interacts w/ the waves to create the moves we see … it’s really that simple.
IF (and trust me it’s a BIG IF) that’s the case then wouldn’t the mathematics of the ancients (note, probably you and me and anyone else present right now … ) that govern natural harmony work on the markets?
YES .. join me going deeper and deeper and deeper into the rabbit hole …
today, the ratio went and smacked right into an hourly pattern SELL (yellow highlight) and a 15 minute butterfly sell (light blue) …
when the ratio goes DOWN the market goes UP. pattern hit perfectly and the rally ensued …
now, it’s time to WATCH the next day or weeks action to see if this pattern fails and the sell off continues OR the ratio continues down causing sustained rally. I don’t recommend being LONG any indices right now as we are in a TIME and PRICE window that might prove significant.
I’ve been monitoring the ratio, daily, for a while as I really wanted the ratio to go down into the “major support” area as I could then feel probability was on my side to take a crack at shorting the market. yes, shorting the market …
if you’ve been reading my blog for a while and for those newer blog readers you will find out/know that the patterns on the XLP/NYA ratio have been exact and helpful in understanding the flow of funds in the big institutions. KEY.
so, I noticed the “key trend line” last time I blogged and noted it but, honestly, haven’t been paying that much attention to it .. just had the lower “major support” level on my hand but, the “key trend line” looks like it has tagged the ratio and provided some much needed support for this falling knife.
now what – well – we are kind of in no mans land … but, I’ll be watching closely and, keep the “major support” level a little below in the back of your head …
note, on the monthly, looks like we will start the month closed below the key trend line from 2007. and he market accelerated upward.
that being said, we are approaching the “target zone” for a lot of math and I also want to call your attention to the monthly RSI and the support zone that its approaching …
I went back and checked .. the last two times it touched this low of a level in the past 15 years was 05/2018 which was part of a -40% ish correction and 07/2007 and we knew what happened during that time frame.
XLP/NYA hit a nice buy pattern on Friday and based on the entire days action, there is another “minor” buy pattern appearing. if both of these hold, then the staples should continue to outperform which traditionally causes equity weakness.
if we lose the levels, then we have the .786 ratio a little lower … either way, the ratio should NOT take out the January 20 low, for now, as that was a pretty big target. sure looks like probability favors more upside for the ratio next week.
we have a very KEY level of support on the XLP/NYSE Index ratio.
as you can see below … we have the measured move (dashed red line) equal to the largest correction in the ratio since the low in 2007 and w/ that the lowest level on the RSI in 12+ years. note, a bullish divergence does not appear to be needed for the ratio to find support …sometimes there was some bullish divergence and other times it just hit the support level and reverse higher. I do think it’s necessary to to take this into account.
then, we have a significant amount of math coming into this level w/ the .786 retracement from the last swing low hit last week.
lastly, we have key trend line support a little lower … this is a “good” trend line because you can see that it was respected as resistance when we copy/pasted the lower trend line onto the higher prices to create the blue trend channel … bottom line is to expect support in the ratio.
so now to the IF and THEN statement of using PATTERNS.
IF the ratio does find support THEN the equity market should correspondingly correct/move lower. ELSE, a blow thru to the downside of the ratio will make the market continue higher and, perhaps, w/ force.
we will be in that key decision making process – next week.
the second chart is just showing the NYSE Index overlaid on top of the ratio .. as you can see when the ratio finds support, the market corrects – every time.
you can go to any financial site and check out “why” the equities sold off today … it could be any number of reasons. at the end of last week, we had a double 3 drives to a top pattern w/ timing that said “monday” is important … to me, it is as simple as that.
in addition to that, take a peak at the XLP/NYA ratio. bounced off some BIG support so the sell off is nothing that wasn’t expected.
how big will this become – if at all? no idea if it’s a one day blip or a big thump coming. just going to look for patterns ..that being said, a ton of euphoria, a lot of SELL PATTERNS and our ratio analysis showing support and Staples to outperform the broader market which usually means – risk off.