Ratio Analysis – July 18, 2022
Tag: nya
NYSE Index – July 03, 2023
Just like the last post on the Banks ( https://bartscharts.com/2023/07/01/xlf-financials-july-01-2023/ ) the NYSE Index – an index composed of all the stocks traded on the NYSE (~5000 securities) – is tipping it’s hand and showing a VERY important SELL PATTERN.
In this case, we have ABCD in PRICE and TIME.
If this market is bearish, this sell pattern will work …
If this market is bullish, this sell pattern will fail and the band will play on …
The PRICE AND TIME aspect of this PATTERN make this one VERY important …
Dollar and Stocks – March 22, 2023
Today, monitor and watch – CLOSELY the BUY PATTERN on the US Dollar Index. That level is in/around 102.50-102.70. As you can see below, I have INVERTED the NYSE Index to give a flavor for the pivots in the equities and how they correspond to the US Dollar.
From the perspective of the S&P 500, let’s see what happens at the opening … if we take out the 3956 handle then moves to the upper two targets shown below are realistic …
Watch the dollar pattern today.
so … who is eating who?
last post on current market conditions: https://bartscharts.com/2021/10/17/sometimes-you-eat-the-bar-and-sometimes-it-eats-you/
if your someone trying to get short – sure looks like the bar is eating you …if your trying or are long looks like you are eating the bar … man, this is interesting.
1/ as a PATTERN recognition expert I can say that the PATTERNS for selling equities FAILED over the past two days.
2/ as an intermarket musician I try to look at everything ….
3/ so lets do that ….
- the PATTERNS have failed
- Palladium really looks like another leg down … Palladium down has been equated to NASDAQ down and, to a certain extent, equities down
- NFLX … man, that pattern is REALLY close …
- Banking Index – again, a MASSIVE pattern a little higher …
- XLP/NYA – certainly might have BROKEN DOWN (equity strength) of the 7 month channel …
so what do we do ..
me?
sitting on my hands and looking for a simultaneous 1/NFLX target hit and 2/ BANKING INDEX hit and 3/ XLP/NYA target hit and then SHORT the NASDAQ w/ a vengeance ….
until those 3 criteria are hit I’ll continue to lick my wounds on MJ 🙂 but … seeing the “numbers” come together for NFLX makes me think I might have to break out my timing work … as a side note I recommend you go and BUY Connie’s book (novel, war and peace) the 32nd Jewel .. it’s mind blowing and I’m only on the 3rd chapter because I find myself against a wall and then I go and “find” (I wonder how I find them) books on number theory and Planks constant and inverses and … the rabbit hole just spirals so I’m reading Robert Edward Grant’s “Philomath” and – total mind blown – but it’s helping me go back to Ms. Brown’s expose and the TIME factor becomes understandable but – it’s still elusive in nature – so when I get a bunch of numbers coming together I work backwards to figure out – what- exactly – is the VIBRATION that NFLX is rolling along with …..
the KEY is the DATE of the IPO and, I think (I’m still learning) that first “long term” pullback from the initial impulse move … that is where the rock hits the water and the height of the drop, the weight of the rock , the wind, the moon, the tide and ANYTHING that is PRESENT and PHYSICAL interacts w/ the waves to create the moves we see … it’s really that simple.
IF (and trust me it’s a BIG IF) that’s the case then wouldn’t the mathematics of the ancients (note, probably you and me and anyone else present right now … ) that govern natural harmony work on the markets?
YES .. join me going deeper and deeper and deeper into the rabbit hole …
Important Correlation
chart below has Palladium w/ the NYSE Index overlaid on top.
the candles are Palladium and the blue line is the NYSE Index ($NYA)
note, currently, Palladium is correcting pretty steeply … in the past, this has led to the overall stock market to correct also. is this time different?
NYSE Index – here we go, targets getting hit …
XLP/NYA – wow what a level
wait for a close ABOVE the dashed green line to short stocks.
last post on XLP/NYA: https://bartscharts.com/2021/05/13/xlp-nya-at-it-again/
we have 6 ratios at the low on the ratio – that SHOULD provide monstrous support … but look at the thrust into the level. begs of caution …
so, check out the ratio on Monday and next week look for a daily close ABOVE The dashed green line to short stocks ..
XLP/NYA at it again …
the ratio at it again …
last post on XLP/ NYA: https://bartscharts.com/2021/05/05/xlp-nya-our-favorite-ratio-and-a-twist/
today, the ratio went and smacked right into an hourly pattern SELL (yellow highlight) and a 15 minute butterfly sell (light blue) …
when the ratio goes DOWN the market goes UP. pattern hit perfectly and the rally ensued …
now, it’s time to WATCH the next day or weeks action to see if this pattern fails and the sell off continues OR the ratio continues down causing sustained rally. I don’t recommend being LONG any indices right now as we are in a TIME and PRICE window that might prove significant.
the ratio (XLP/NYA) is the ONLY thing I’m watching w/ regard to equities …
I’ve been monitoring the ratio, daily, for a while as I really wanted the ratio to go down into the “major support” area as I could then feel probability was on my side to take a crack at shorting the market. yes, shorting the market …
if you’ve been reading my blog for a while and for those newer blog readers you will find out/know that the patterns on the XLP/NYA ratio have been exact and helpful in understanding the flow of funds in the big institutions. KEY.
so, I noticed the “key trend line” last time I blogged and noted it but, honestly, haven’t been paying that much attention to it .. just had the lower “major support” level on my hand but, the “key trend line” looks like it has tagged the ratio and provided some much needed support for this falling knife.
now what – well – we are kind of in no mans land … but, I’ll be watching closely and, keep the “major support” level a little below in the back of your head …
don’t forget this target on my favorite ratio …
note, on the monthly, looks like we will start the month closed below the key trend line from 2007. and he market accelerated upward.
that being said, we are approaching the “target zone” for a lot of math and I also want to call your attention to the monthly RSI and the support zone that its approaching …
I went back and checked .. the last two times it touched this low of a level in the past 15 years was 05/2018 which was part of a -40% ish correction and 07/2007 and we knew what happened during that time frame.
Caveat Emptor …
