BIDU

expanded flat correction ID’d. suggests some more up and down into the lower BUY zone in the coming days weeks

couple years ago ID’d a 5 wave sequence that was completing and then the triangle (which now appears to have been part of the ongoing correction in the B-wave) and now see this entire move since “5” ended as an expanded flat correction where “B” goes above “A” and then “C” takes a big old plunge … if (the big IF) my count is correct in ID’ing and expanded flat correction, then it looks like we have a little more up and downs before we go lower into the buy zone. right now, it’s a pretty big BUY zone w/ almost 20 points between the low and the high portion of the zone. will tighten the range once we have another week or so action …

here’s the blog post from a couple years ago: https://bartscharts.com/2017/02/14/bidu-follow-up-2132017/

Gold / Oil :update 04/10/20

little higher for a very important target on the ratio of Gold/Oil

04/10/20 – our target level hit and, if you look closely below, you’ll see 5 waves down .. followed by 3 waves up into a “perfect” SELL PATTERN for the ratio. IF this pattern works (the big if) then expect Crude to strengthen against gold and, perhaps, keep the oil rally going for a little while longer.

one of my readers asked me a question on Gold/Oil ratio. below I have charted SPOT gold / futures oil (continuous contract) – wow, pretty amazing move … take a look at the 1.618 projection target a little higher. that ‘should’ (operative word) cause some resistance. additionally, if we keep this parabolic rise in the ratio then the 12 level on oil doesn’t seem to far fetched, does it? thanks again Ray for the ping … great question and observation. that’s what I see .. hope it helps. Bart

the importance of 28.48

make sure you keep 28.48 key level/node in your toolbox as the volatility continues to run its course …

I’ve been using the all time low on the DJIA in 08/08/1896 – 28.48 as a KEY node responsible for major support and resistance. as you can see in the chart below, it’s been present at the 1987 crash low, 2002 low, 2009 low and most recently the crash low in 2020. also, if we take that all time low and use the high in 2007 as our AB leg then 1.618*AB = all time high on DJIA.

certainly smells like one more leg down to complete a 5 wave sequence. I’ll be watching for the same percentage decline as 2007-2009 or one of the retracement levels that can be derived from 28.48.

for now, w/ so much crazy volatility be aware where these key levels are going to be going forward and, please, make sure you use 28.48.

Crude, Chevron (CVX) and Exxon (XOM)

one more wave of selling appears to complete 5 wave sequences across the board …

net-net appears that this bounce will be followed by another wave of selling .. then, some VERY nice targets appear. would maintain patience until lower targets are hit for a LONG opportunity

XLP/NYSE Index ratio – BUY

this ratio xlp/nya is a GREAT guidepost .. buy pattern complete. if it holds and starts back up expect selling to being again .. KEY LEVEL

for those who follow this blog – remember – it’s all about PATTERNS and I try (operative word) to remove any subjective analysis from the mix. PATTERNS work and sometimes they don’t …

additionally, you’ll see here – https://bartscharts.com/2020/03/23/xlp-nya-ratio/ that the XLP/NYSE Index ratio has been a good guidepost for BIG inflections UP and DOWN for the equity market.

today, at the low on the ratio, we completed a BUY PATTERN. we do have a little lower for other targets to get hit but, essentially, we have a BUY PATTERN complete and, if it works (operative saying), THEN the selling should resume …

if it fails, which it certainly could, then this is a very bullish development and the rally will continue .. patterns like this, when they fail, are usually face rippers so time to hold on and see which way the market Gods would like to go …

Banks – at support zone

CRUCIAL support level for the banks!

here’s the last post on the Banks: https://bartscharts.com/2018/12/26/very-important-level-on-the-banks/

note, we are pretty much at the important support zone … can go down into 53 and still have a support zone alive. remember banks lead us down and lead us up .. support here and a bounce should relieve pressure on our equities.

XLP/NYA ratio …

ratio slowing it’s advance .. pay attention for “trade” like support …

we have a pretty big ‘wick’ up at the all time high on the ratio and closed w/ a doji today at the level that’s basically equal to the close on Friday. Basically, even though we were down 500+ the ‘fear’ subsided w/regards to the Staples/NYA ratio. this lack of follow thru is telling .. is the low in place, yet. I HAVE NO IDEA but I do trust this ratio .. until we CLOSE ABOVE the blue rectangle area on a WEEKLY basis I’ll move to a neutral stance in the equity market for now … trading bounce (not necessarily a long term investment buy) appears to be working into the vernacular …

HYG – BUY pattern approaching / here UPDATE 04/10/20

HYG at a crucial level … KEY

04/10/2020 – trust everyone has a blessed and peaceful weekend. also, please keep staying safe. check in if you have the chance …

couple weeks ago, we showed VERY important support on the HYG and detailed how we can find a pattern by simply Projecting, Extending and Retracing. Where the ratio’s all come together then, well, support or resistance SHOULD (operative word) appear. as I have discussed on this blog, a bunch, it’s all PROBABILITY. No idea which will work or which won’t …in this case support held, the BYG liquidation stopped and the market rallied! GREAT … where are we now.

if you want to go down the worm hole which is Elliott Wave then first pay attention to the corrections! Learn em’ and then try to count subwaves for the rest of your life. I have found the EWT to be very helpful in CORRECTIVE PATTERN ID’ing. The most common? A three wave move that is against the overall trend.

we finished a 3 wave SELL PATTERN on Thursday and, if this level holds then expect the stocks to sell off again. note on the chart below … that’s a MONSTER BULLISH gap … pay attention to this ETF!

note the blue arrow projection – it’s equal in BOTH PRICE AND TIME. the market hit the 84.04 level and now, if the pattern works, it should start back down. a gap down below the gap (bearish island reversal) or a big move back thru it is not a good sign.

HYG is getting thumped. as people who are just starting to read my blog or are long time followers you recognize that, for me, it’s all about patterns. period.

don’t try to use any fundamentals (don’t understand them and not smart enough to …) and just try to find patterns. I love patterns … why? because, they give you a really good set of benchmarks or maps of where you are … when they work, you know where you are and, conversely, when they don’t you also know where you are …HYG is so important to the global financial structure.

i’m up early doing some blogging on the west coast and nothing is going on so I’ll say the 66-69 level is a KEY support level / BUY pattern on HYG. It needs to hold at these levels or things are going to get ugly. (like they aren’t already) buy how did we get 66-69?

P – E – R – PROJECT, EXTEND, RETRACE there are other methods to hone in on this level – square of 9, cycles work, etc. But doing a quick PER gives us a nice level and it’s early this AM so I’ll just leave it at her for now …folks, in the world of patterns it doesn’t get much better than this .. we have 6 ratio’s all coming together in the area highlighted below. trust me that equals a big deal. losing this level and something is definitely a foot at the circle K. that sure is a TON of thrust coming into this level … it does warn of a potential failure of this pattern

PROJECT

Orange: .618 ab=cd and Blue: ab=cd

EXTEND: took three key lows (rectangles) and extended fro those points … 2.236 is square root of 5

RETRACE – there she is, the .786 retrace right in/around the key level

AAPL

AAPL ‘should’ (operative word) find a support level HERE or a little lower

we all know that AAPL is responsible for a LOT of the point count out there … looking at the XLP/NYSE Index ratio and also the NYSE Index and it’s .382 retracement w/ the measured percentage move of 2000-2003 and the long term log trend line certainly looks like we should find some support HERE and NOW.

if these levels give away, it’s really not a good thing … read that last sentence again … they could very well give away. massive liquidation occurring right now. so … the “levels are the levels” but in this type of environment it’s probably a good thing to wait for a SRC on a weekly basis or something like that …

I’m simply trying (the operative word) to be unbiased and find SUPPORT levels that will stop this insanity. from there we can figure out the type of move (corrective, impulsive, etc.) and make detailed projections .. right now, am using measured moves from weekly/monthlies and then geometry to find the levels.

I am NOT advocating BUYing – just yet.

Bart