Dr. Copper – UPDATE

Copper, below, smacked right into the “SELL ZONE” … why is Copper being blogged about? Isn’t that a “who cares” type of metal? Ummmm, no. the inflection that occurs in copper has occurred in the stock market, as shown, on every major pivot since 2009, at a minimum.

so, this “zone” is very important …. watch copper in the coming days/weeks to get a “feel” for the overall health of the market.

————————————————————–

if you’ve been following my blog you know I’ll say “I love Elliott Wave, when it works…!” for Copper it certainly has. one of my first blog posts was about absolutely nailing the low at 4 by using, you guessed it, Elliott Wave.

is it going to work again … I really have no idea. that being said, if we follow the standard Elliott corrective construction, certainly looks reasonable that Dr. Copper is finishing a trend defining “b wave” and, just perhaps, a monstrous “c wave” cometh ….

XLP/$NYA update

you can go to any financial site and check out “why” the equities sold off today … it could be any number of reasons. at the end of last week, we had a double 3 drives to a top pattern w/ timing that said “monday” is important … to me, it is as simple as that.

in addition to that, take a peak at the XLP/NYA ratio. bounced off some BIG support so the sell off is nothing that wasn’t expected.

how big will this become – if at all? no idea if it’s a one day blip or a big thump coming. just going to look for patterns ..that being said, a ton of euphoria, a lot of SELL PATTERNS and our ratio analysis showing support and Staples to outperform the broader market which usually means – risk off.

stay tuned …

DJIA 3 drives to a top pattern Monday 11/30/20

the two charts below are showing 2 three drives to a top pattern … the timing shows Monday 11/30 as the key date.

this chart is a 15 minute chart and showing the “three drives within a three drives” … kind of like Inception “dream w/in a dream w/in a dream” I guess ….

there are some higher targets but I would consider a daily close BELOW the gap area shown to be important for the bull case.

28.48 and the DOW

if you do a search around music on this blog you’ll see a pretty long post about using music and logs to calculate targets. a chart from that blog is here:

until tonight did I think about the correction this year and it’s harmony w/ 28.48. well, shucks, it perfectly nailed the .382 from that all time low. we will see some iteration of 28.48 at the final high – whenever that may be because TIME will always EQUAL PRICE at the final high or low.

long long way to go to 40K and it won’t occur in a straight line BUT hopefully some of us will be around when it hits that upper target ….

Math we like … EUR vs JPY

believe it or not, I learned to trade as a SPOT Fx dude ..no kidding. No stocks, no futures, no ETF’s out of the Navy I jumped right into the INSANE world of SPOT FX …

I still trade the SPOT MARKET … I’ll check out the majors, then the crosses and see what’s the scoop. no kidding, I once heard that ALL the world bonds and commodities and stock markets would have to operate for 90 days non-stop to match the liquidity of ONE DAY on the Currency Market. YEW …

in this case we have a currency pair as the EURO vs the Japanese Yen. chart goes up the Euro is stronger. chart goes down the Yen (versus the Euro) is stronger … it’s as simple as that.

I’m cruising the charts waiting to get locked down in CA and saw a neat chart to my eye. I just started working this chart and …boooooom … we find a level as depicted.

Let’s make this easy, when we have a LOT of math in a really TIGHT area we HAVE to take a swing at the bat … now, that being said, that is some nice thrust from the 121.62 area but I think that last thrust up was the end of a flat correction. so the recent wave down, should (trust my count or not 🙂 not sure I do or I don’t to be honest 🙂 ) go to our targeted BUY ZONE. Say 120.50-121.

let me know if you have any questions on how the levels were derived …

oh, in the spot fx world, w/ SO MUCH math in one area, I usually give myself 30 pips below – max- for my stop out. w/ the liquidity of the FX and the math as shown, go down to a 1 minute chart for the entry .. seeing these levels hit, instantaneously watching the reaction and to think that w/ a home computer and some PATTERN work the entire world STOPPED selling EUR vs JPY and started BUYING EUR vs JPY. still amazes me … I’m always surprised to see this insane way to look at anything rational about the markets work from time to time ….

good weekend to you – Bart

GOOD RX and the Vesica Pisces

I know the GOOD Rx dudes … really good guys. Hope this “bounce” starts a big bull run for them.

I’ve been doing some chart cruising and simply just decided to play around w/ Good Rx (GDRX)

1.618, fundamental frequencies, measured moves from the Vesica Pisces and, of course, square roots …

BITCOIN

The notable aspect of Bitcoin is the CRUSHING of the Gartely 222 SELL PATTERN in/around 14-15k. As you have seen me blog before, failed patterns aren’t fun because IF you took the investment/trade THEN you probably lost money. But, to try and figure out “where” you are they tell you a lot. The “usually” result in explosive moves higher or lower depending on the the PATTERN being a BUY or a SELL.

As we approach new highs remember, this is a 5th wave … yes, it could explode higher and higher and higher ….but, the euphoria, the political landscape, the talking heads, the “insert something to fuel the rise here” are all going to be blathering but our job … trust the PATTERNS.

If/when we do get a nice pullback the levels of FAILED PATTERNS are usually good support or resistance depending o the type of pattern.

The 21-23K level is a BIG TARGET as it represents an AB=CD from the ALL TIME low and a 1.27 extension. It SHOULD be stiff resistance if not a big ole target.

Last, just take a second to study the 2nd chart below. Remember the CHAOS of the BITCOIN craze …? Well, if we take the point labeled “S” (start) and follow it to X then A= .786 SX. From there, just look at the relationships that were almost PERFECT in this heightened GLOBAL market. Can someone explain this to me …?

Stay safe, thanks – always – for reading.

Bart

GOOGL – SELL PATTERN

SELL PATTERN completing a little higher and its behavior will give us a good idea of the overall market …

folks, it’s all that it is ….it’s the famed Gartely 222 Pattern which has the following:

AB=CD – yes we have that

.618 or .786 retracement – yes we have that

an 1.27 or 1.618 extension pattern – yes we have that

so, folks, it’s “just” a sell PATTERN on an important stock and IF (the big IF) it works THEN the market will probably follow. right? kinda?

OR the PATTERN fails (which does happen) and IF (the big IF) it fails THEN the market will probably follow. right? kinda?

therefore – sell PATTERN works GOOGL should go down and the market will go down.

else – sell PATTERN fails and GOOGL should GAP (more than likely) over the pattern (happens all the time) and the general market will follow …

GOOGL – SELL PATTERN and that’s all it is …