DJ Transports – May 09, 2023

Last post on the Transports:

The thesis on the Transports is the ATH is a “BIG TOP.” Thus far, we haven’t really broken down that hard so only TIME will tell.

We like when .382 / .618 retracements are on top of each other and we have that a little lower in the high 10K’s and low 11k’s. This a HUGE target zone for the Transports. IF they slice thru that level then they “should” go down to the ABCD level and then attack the 50 year old trend line .. we break those levels and the corrective drop target (likes to target the previous wave 4 of a lesser degree – guideline NOT a rule) into 2K is certainly a reality. I’m blogging about this now because I have no earthly idea what would cause such a thump .. let’ face it, that’s pretty much a breakdown of the transportation sector, probably globally.

I’m going to stick w/ this count, more than likely getting proven wrong – certainly hope so …

from a technical perspective pay attention to:

  • obviously, the count …
  • the orange trend line (log) from the monthly, weekly – it appears that is what is holding it up
  • the “nested” head and shoulders .. breaking the neckline AND the orange log trend line should start this lower
  • .382 from the 90 year low 0f 13.43 is 11,277
  • the BUY pattern is down around 8986-9396 –
  • net, net we have two very important zones of support and then the looming trendline from 50 years ago.

hope, being a strategy, this analysis is COMPLETELY WRONG

JPM – May 04, 2023

Pay attention to this PATTERN on JPM daily. The past 3 major tops have gapped down and the last two have created island reversals. IF (the BIG IF) we gap down today and leave and “island” then this could be very troubling for the banks and, historically, has led to a pretty big down move in JPM.

No idea if that will happen in the coming days but, again, the TIME is perfect in it’s relation to the the all time high PATTERN and the price is off just a wee bit .. essentially we have the same exact same set up as the high .. now, TIME will tell.

on a monthly level, the “blue measured move” certainly looks to be harmonic w/ JPM. the most recent high in/around mid 140’s was exactly equal to the blue measured move … again, keep an eye on JPM as it’s appears to be the big dog helping out the troubling regional and smaller banks.

If (again the BIG IF) we gap down in JPM to create an island then this big dog could be signaling a much bigger credit crunch on the way.

LIBOR Rate – April 30, 2023

The LIBOR rate is an important gauge … for a better explanation that I can provide please see:

Basically, it’s the rate that banks charge each other to move a “shi&t ton” of money around overnight. It’s HUGELY important .. in fact, Mr. Martin Armstrong picked up some LIBOR issues around August before COVID and it was fascinating to watch this play out – these banks are truly the gorillas juggling dynamite in the cage we jump into trading the financial markets. Oh, forgot to mention, the dynamite is lit!

I just decided to play around w/ the LIBOR chart and just started counting … now, as many of you know, my EWT counting is truly like my golf game. Sometimes, smacking it right down the middles and other times, the ball is simply no where to be seen or found. My swing (and counting) can get that bad … also, just like when you ask someone their score and they look back and start counting w/ their finger you know they are giving you a “fake news” score! So, if I get a sub wave of a sub wave of a sub wave into the counting then I’m probably just making it up. With all that being said, I really just try not to break any rules and get on the side of the MAIN wave. I LOOK for corrective patterns as they are the most reliable way to enter into a position. When we have a PATTERN and an EWT count that fits then probability does become quite high. But, you simply never know …

NO rules are broken below … sure looks like the LIBOR RATE has/is bottoming and that means, eventually, the rate the banks charge each other is going to get a LOT more expensive … could be tomorrow, could be years from you but I think this is showing a pretty clear 5 waves down so the next “trending” move is going to be: UP.

AMZN – April 27, 2023

hard to believe that I derived the targets shown above below in January. pretty crazy.

what was important about today was AMZN performed a calendar day square out. in the world we live in (i.e. if your reading this blog) PRICE and TIME are the SAME THING. PRICE=TIME and TIME=PRICE. So, a PRICE of $50 dollars will spin off TIME cycles of 50 minutes, hours, weeks, days, etc. etc.

the famous WD Gann said you can square out a HIGH, LOW or a RANGE. In this case, the RANGE from the ATH to the most recent January low was 108 points. We take 108 points (note – you can move planets helio or geo based on this square out and you might want to try it … 😉 and convert that to 108 calendar days. that was today …. from the low on January 09, 2023 we add 109 calendar days and that day was today.

My issue (we all have them) is I found the square out but the pattern was SO FAR AWAY that I was a little confused. WE LIKE TO SEE SQUARE OUTS IN TIME WITH CORRESPODING BUY OR SELL PATTERNS…. so what to do.

Well, well, well … today was an earnings call for AMZN (had no idea) and guess what after hours it went up and tagged the pattern on the day of the square out.

GO FIGURE … no idea what the earnings were or weren’t.

Be short AMZN below 122.

Banking Index – April 24, 2023

Last post on the Banking Index:

Well, guess you can say “here we go” or “lets get it on” (cue UFC John McCarthy) …

Banking index has complete the ABCD from the low and the “scary” times … it’s all good, correct? Well, guess we will just have to wait and see.

Next stop: 66-68 or lower. Guess we’ll just have to wait and see, right?

Longer term targets below …

note, the next chart is LOG SCALE

VIX – April 23, 2023

Last post on the VIX:

The VIX reacted to the first ABCD in/around 17 but that “bigger” ABCD laid in wait. It has been hit ….

I just got back from my SUP Veterans Retreat and have been completed off the grid for a week. DO IT – just like Mikey, you will like it.

Anyhoo, always great to see things w/ VERY fresh eyes and … check this out.

The TIME down from the 2020 spike in the VIX is equal to the TIME from the spike high in 2022.

Throw in the ABCD and you have a VERY important level to watch on the VIX.

S&P 500 – April 09, 2023

Last post on S&P 500:

All eyes remain on the USD. we have a large target looming a little lower.

That being said, we are approaching a very critical time from a cyclic perspective. We have also completed a “valid” SELL pattern on the SPX. So, we either start down early this week or we blast thru the pattern higher into more targets.

Either way, I DO NOT think that the market is done going down. We have more waves lower … the timing will be dependent on the US DOLLAR and the PATTERNS present.

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