the Big Short (a pun)

below you will find the SHORT DOW ETF called SDOW. it’s pretty fascinating if you think about it or look at it .. your preference.

basically right around the start of the pandemic around the week of 02/14/20 the volume was HUGE and the SDOW went on a nice run higher. well played … but since then it’s down basically 10X and there is still a lot of buying …

look to the far left and this ETF fell so far and nobody was interested and then last year hit and someone/somebody has been buying and selling this security …

now, of late, if you look closer to the last couple candles and corresponding volume you’ll see that the most BUYING volume ever has come in AND the price as pretty much stabilized at/around the low 30’s ….

you going to BUY SDOW down here …?

YEW ….

How logarithm’s, music and math yield 40,655 as a target for the DJIA

If you have gone down the rabbit hole that I have (hint it never stops) then you uncover tidbits of information that you would never think were important but one of those moments of “that’s cool” and move on …

I am eyeing a NICE currency position and then ended up cruising around the charts and was looking at Monthlies on a bunch of stuff. The charts reminded me of some of my early market music stuff and I figured I would go back and check em out …

Came across this long term DJIA chart ( I won’t bore you the importance of logs, numerology, blah blah and read the first sentence above. :)) It’s a technique for price projections that I learned from my friend and mentor, Michael Jenkins (www.stockcyclesforecast.com – RECOMMEND), and the results were pretty astounding.

I’ve shown some past blogs around the importance of the number 28.48. It’s a key PRICE NODE that has been at most tops and bottoms. So using it as a projection technique? Why not!

Then, you know I love music so … why not combine them w/ rates of change (logs) and … well the result is below. The use of logs and musical note ratio’s from the all time low on the DOW have been almost exactly the price using the log projection w/ the musical note E ratio.

The next appearance of this PRICE is 40,655 as annotated on the chart. One last, take a note of the blue arrows. the basic AB=CD lands, close enough, right on our target.

At this rate, from a timing perspective, it’s not that far off now is it ….?

Cycles are lining up, just saying.

Bart

below, note the symmetry of the projections and how, at least for now, EVERY MOVE, has been equal to each other and aligned w/ the Golden Mean.

Global Dow – 9-10% higher?

the last time we blogged about the GDOW we saw a pattern and the AB=CD and warned of another possible move down … we got a 36% correction from the AB=CD. what is fascinating, is the correction from 2007-2009 was related to the most recent correction by … yup, 1.618. if you take the correction from 2018-2020 and multiply it by 1.618 you will get the 2007-2009 correction in percentage terms.

anyway, in another 10% or so we are going to have a major test for the Global Dow.

DJIA 3 drives to a top pattern Monday 11/30/20

the two charts below are showing 2 three drives to a top pattern … the timing shows Monday 11/30 as the key date.

this chart is a 15 minute chart and showing the “three drives within a three drives” … kind of like Inception “dream w/in a dream w/in a dream” I guess ….

there are some higher targets but I would consider a daily close BELOW the gap area shown to be important for the bull case.

Targets for support (hope – a strategy)

support here or soon “should” be expected …

Here’s the link to the ‘targets a plenty’ – https://bartscharts.com/2020/01/25/targets-a-plenty/

there are also two other posts which mention the target in Dec and then early January. resistance? yes! contagion selling? no! so, here we go …

if we take a look at the 2007-2009 correction we can find harmonics to it and go into the past (I’ve done it) and then PROJECT those harmonics on future support …that’s all the chart below is … we have some “standard” fibo’s coming in but we do have 2 ratios (that’s always good) and for me the most important point is they all land right on the key retracement points … so, very quickly, let’s watch that 10250-10400 for some nice support!

if we swing down to a daily it “appears” (see above title for hope) that we are in a 5th wave down so we ‘should’ (operative word) see a bounce here-soon. also, I haven’t updated it but am watching it like a hawk – the USD vs JPY has NOT seen new lows and if that maintains support this selling will abate.

take er’ easy – Bart

Targets a plenty ….

02/24/2020

UPDATE: well today was a pretty smashing day as “days” go but in the big picture it’s really nothing. but, he fact that the NYSE Index hit the target – from the all time low – so nicely, we do have to be defensive as explained, roughly a month and a half ago …

updating the NYSE Index for potential targets and you can see 11500-12100 ish as the most likely move … that’s roughly 7-20%. yes, I know that is a big range but all I’m doing, for now, is looking at past corrective measured moves and projecting down. as can see by the below chart, the blue and red arrows have been responsible for pretty much EVERY correction for the past 20 years. so, isn’t it a high probability that this is where the market will go? Seriously, take a few minutes from your ADD Social Media frenzy to study the chart below … folks, it’s EXACT. EVERY CORRECTION HAS BEEN EITHER THE RED AND/OR BLUE ARROWS. also, take a peak at the 2007-2009 thump. that correction was harmonic to the blue and red arrows being 2.236 (square root of 5 and one of our ratios) * blue arrow and 2.618 (Fibonacci) * red arrow. hence, all of the corrections have been harmonic. now that being said, we have finished a LOT of 5 wave sequences sooooo this corrective move might go a little deeper than any of us think BUT a pattern will emerge to give us an opportunity to BUY … so just chill out, turn off the news and, well, hang on.

rounding out everything from the previous post:

if you have been following my blog of late, I’ve slowed down posting because I was ‘waiting’ for some targets to be hit … it looked like a high level broadening triangle was at work – WRONG. 🙂 and w/ the recent breakout to the upside I had to erase pretty much all of the major indices and, well, go LONG TERM and look for ‘other’ patterns / targets to come into play … well, they have and did last week.

here’s a look at the long term targets that have been hit or are less than 1% away from being hit. if these charts were intraday or daily charts then I would ‘wait’ for 1% but when, in the case of the DJIA, we are looking at a projection a mere 124 years in the making then I’ll take a percent here or there …

in no particular order …

Dow Jones Industrial Average: the all time low on the DJIA was in 1896 at 28.48. Using that low as A we move the line sector AB into the high of 2007. Mulitplying that by 1.618 to get the 1.618 price projection we get 29415. Looks like that was hit on Friday. also, note the dashed green lines going from the all time low up into the 2007 high. same measured move into the 29415 high.

if we put a 14 period RSI on the chart .. yup, we would have bearish divergence present.

New York Stock Exchange Index: take time to study the notes on the chart. bottom line – multiple confirmations (different techniques) of strong resistance

NASDAQ: 1.618 price projection target hit and closed right on it Friday. Also, note we have an overlapping 1.618 extension target hit …

one last, our target zone for the XLP/NYA ratio was hit … continued strength will show the defensive move into staples by the big boys. watch this ratio closely ….

I like to draw circles … just work w/ me. how the 1987 low and recent high are connected by geometry

a couple weeks ago I posted this: https://bartscharts.com/2018/08/30/jpm-and-tops-of-circles/

it was some geometric work I did on JPM and ‘real time’ the top of a circle. I do have a theory of ‘why’ this technique works in projecting support or resistance but I’ll leave that to me and some of my friends. it really doesn’t matter – does it?

i’ve been silent on the blog world for a bunch of reasons .. the main reason is a loss that occurred in my family and I really haven’t felt like doing much.  but, the emails have been coming in about the most recent moves.

if you go back and read you’ll find that I was pretty defensive for the entire summer .. did we/me miss some of the last part of these moves – yes but ultimately, the only buy pattern around was ABX and GE.  TBT was also a nice play but the chaos of the euphoria just had me step aside.

so in order to get back into it, I put some Enigma on the Spotify and, specifically, Morphing Thru Time .. pretty ‘trip-in-dicular’ to say the least.

I called up the Dow Jones and could just see the connection between the 1987 low and this most recent high. Tops of circles are cool.

Bart