the ABCD target on NVDA has been hit on the monthly (it actually went higher and did the 12th root of 2 (1.05946) which is the ratio used to tune the equal octave scale of music) with noticeable bearish divergence on the 14 period RSI. I expect some serious resistance. If we blow thru it, then this stock can run. I will update some of the higher targets later if we below thru this level.
additionally, we can see a 3 drives to a top on the daily.
“mind the gap” – huge gap support, as shown, lower.
Was over on the Top Gun options group chat working some NVDA charting and I decided to pull out some ratio analysis on the XLP and NVDA.
XLP/NVDA
Some stuff we need to consider:
Note the red trend line connecting the lows .. it’s a perfect fit. Certainly suggests the “ratio” is about to rise which means, in the past, some heavy weight for the NASDAQ and I imagine the overall market. Hmmmm …
Overlaid on top of the ratio (blue line) is the NASDAQ composite … take a peak at how it reacted when the ratio rose … except for one time during the 2010-2012 timeframe, it rose and so did the market. That’s pretty much it … of late, it’s “timed” the NASDAQ pretty well.
When we add up the 20 year trend line support that sure looks like it wants to hold and the ratio starts rising – the NASDAQ hasn’t necessarily been bullish during these times now, has it?
Been holding onto these AAPL charts for a while until they approached the level. This certainly looks like a freight train for higher BUT you know, nothing like the top of a circle to pause / stop it in its tracks.
I will not be shorting AAPL at this level but will find it interesting to see if this stops this freight train. If/when it blows thru the top of the circle, the 1.27 extensions looms …
Some fun waves this AM … that’s really all that is important. 🙂
Michael Jenkins taught me how to look for Mirror Image Foldbacks. (www.stockcyclesforecast.com) – he also showed me how they are planetary in nature … essentially, whatever planet or pair (s) of planets came together at the folkback point, they will also move “out” from that point causing the same pattern to appears as a “mirror image”.
This one is pretty nice in form and time. Note the TIME component from the “foldback point” hit today and is equal. Additionally, take a peak at the “form” of the moves from the foldback point .. yup, fractals of each other.
So, go long SQQQ and wouldn’t hold it too much below the blue line as the time component on this one looks almost perfect so my “thinking” (don’t think it hurts the team Bart” is we will know pretty soon. Oh, additionally, foldbacks like this fail when/where. MOST of the time, at the foldback point. So … it will work in/around here OR not.
Lot’s of volume in this security … interesting to see the volume go up and down ….
as you can see, Palladium is tracking down into our level ID’d above back in September. additionally, you can see that they track each other pretty nicely. it’s NOT exact but the general trend and flow is pretty much the same…
during this sell off in Palladium, the NASDAQ 100 has held up pretty nicely and we are approaching a level on the Palladium chart that represents the LARGEST corrective move in the past 15+ years. this measured move is key …
time to play IF and THEN …
IF we hit the level below on Palladium AND it holds THEN I would look to be a buyer of the NASDAQ 100. note, we have a LOT of thrust coming into this level so let it shuck and jive and look for a weekly signal reversal candle on palladium (in this case the HIGH of the candle that makes the low (the wick is included) on a weekly close above is a signal reversal candle or SRC)
love that saying from the Big Lebowski … what a great movie.
so, here we go folks .. I’ve just ran thru the DJIA, NASDAQ and S&P 500 and ALL have sell patterns.
what does that mean? well, nothing … right? it’s all probability …
but, that’s what we play, probability …so, we have Gartley SELL patterns across the board – they will 1/ work or 2/ not work.
also, our favorite ratio is banging against the bottom of the range that it’s been swimming in for months .. but, take a look , at this lower level you will see an AB=CD, a 3 drives to a bottom and a butterfly BUY on the ratio. so, when the ratio goes UP then the market usually goes down …
we break down below our XLP/NYA level this puppy could rocket ship higher and, then again, the sell patterns work, the XLP/NYA level holds and we start selling off again …
I redid my NASDAQ chart at the request of a friend .. the other night, when I posted it, I just drew the “AB=CD” and figured I would tighten it up over the weekend …I did tighten up the target w/ some more precision.
the AB=CD has been hit.
how did we get this target?
from the low in 2002 we label A. The most recent 2020 highs are B and then C is the low after that pretty quick drop (note, it was one of the fastest percentage moves drop in history) from there we can calculate the AB=CD target. Appears to have been hit ..
from the all low on 10/03/74 we draw the radius of the circle all the way to 2000 .. that’s a BIG rock hitting the water, isn’t it?
from there we draw our circle … once we have the circle we can create the square based on said radius and that is bolded in BLUE.
speed or fan lines originating from the all time low and being based on the geometry of the first impulse move are pretty powerful. as you can see I divided the length of the square into the usual ratio’s and then drew the fan lines from the all time low … take a look at the result.
there is a lot going on w/ these lines and there is a lot more geometry that can be drawn but I don’t want to clog up the chart.
so, net net, pay close attention to the NASDAQ in/around here, fer shure … if the AB=CD pattern fails to the upside there are other targets that I’ll update but for now, this looks like something that we should REALLY pay attention to …
11/05/2020 – yes, some insanity is ongoing everywhere. that being said, we trust PATTERNS and tune out all the noise. In this case, we had the expected reaction to the resistance levels sighted below and, now with this rally, we have another SELL pattern coming into play. SELL THE RATIO = SELL TECH.
NOTE – WE HAVE A LOT OF THRUST AND BREAKAWAY GAPS COMING INTO THIS LEVEL. this begs “caution” so, w/ the euphoric tech rise, it’s not a stretch to expect this level to get tagged and, frankly, get blow over and fail. but, that being said, it is a SELL XLK/XLP ratio so .. .watch closely.
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last week, blogged about parabolic arcs and showed how we could use geometry to POTENTIALLY (the only operative word in investing) to look for inflection points. if your new to the blog, you’ll find a chart that has been replicated a couple times over past couple weeks /months for an area or zone of resistance. in fact, here’s a print to screen where JC (www.allstarcharts.com) and I were talking about this level … we discussed it ramifications to manage risk. this level was known 4-6 weeks ago and was discussed about it being respected. the past couple days market action can tell you why this was a smart move …
if this zone held, then technology would lose some steam (so to speak) and rotation into less volatile names (staples) would occur. at my last count we had 6 different projection techniques and math coming into this area.
when it broke above it – on a daily basis – I was somewhat surprised but it’s all probability, right? so, I blogged to wait for an open and a close above our targeted area/zone. we DID NOT get an open and a close above our area so the resistance was still on .. that is what I mean waiting for a signal reversal.
signal reversal candle (bullish) = the ‘high’ of the ‘low’ candle is taken out on close
signal reversal candle (bearish) – the ‘low’ of the ‘high’ candles is taken out on close.
when we come up w/ levels, waiting for an open/close above or below a certain level is the smartest way to play it. this is what was recommended … we have a LONG time before the month ends (for the monthly candle) but we can monitor via weekly and daily …
no need to rehash old news .. the zone has been hit. you read the blog – to find out where it COULD (there’s that probability connotation again) go …
using the basics, for now, I have used measured move corrections (blue and orange arrows) and rudimentary retracement techniques to come up w/ an initial set of targets.
folks, this might not even be the top to do all this work … it COULD GET ALL REVERSED TOMORROW.
keep the erasers and pencils ready, this is going to get interesting …
