Parabolic moves are amazing … if your short and your on the wave ride it and if your riding the long wave in the emotional fueled rally then find your line and carve …just don’t get greedy.
The fact is parabolic moves never (strong statement) or shall I say ‘most of the time’ don’t end well. I’m going to show the parabolic moves that are literally rocket ships and then walk thru some of the charts from the past that show parabolic moves and their outcomes … what’s interesting is they all really do look the same …and, if you can ride out the opposite side of the tsunami it can and will come back . but do you want to eat it if your on the wrong side of the market? I can’t answer you as that is part of your PERSONAL RISK MINDSET.
I posted on MSFT a few minutes ago about it’s parabolic move and got some VERY angry and nasty messages back. I blocked those people. You see, I really do enjoy blogging and investing. I absolutely LOVE observing human nature. Why mention the past couple sentences … well, you see, I get the occasional thumbs up or comment and somebody might ask a question or two and I enjoy responding. I can see, via analytics, that a LOT of people are visiting the blog page. And, if you notice, there are periods that I go silent and then I’ll start blogging a lot because, well, patterns start to emerge.
But the fact that I got a TON of hate and mocking messages over on Stocktwits feeds more fuel to the fire that a top is approaching. Does that mean tomorrow …? Maybe? Probably not. Next week, next month? Who knows … but it is definitely getting very interesting.
In parabolic moves think of physics and Ps. Ps=sustained power. we had numbers memorized when I flew fighters for the Navy .. what altitude, airspeed, G would give you the BEST turn rate and radius to perform the jet. What sustained power could you work to max perform it …? If you went outside the box you are going to trade something …
I can blog this now because I’m a decade + out of the Navy. Back in the day, off the coast of SoCal we took the jet from 250 feet over the ocean and lit the cans (afterburner) got a ton of speed up and zooooooom up we went. Straight up bullseye (nose 90 degrees high) and we topped out above 60,000 ft. (I’ll leave it at that)
The coolest thing about topping out was the jet was STILL in full afterburner …but guess what, it just wouldn’t go any higher and then it flipped over on its back, flopped around out of control and fell like a stone. Nothing to worry about when your 10 miles above the earth but still a little erie to be honest. What happened? Well Ps went to zero. Yup .. the power to keep the jet climbing was gone. Night night, we were done …. the SAME THING HAPPENS IN THE STOCK MARKET WITH PARABOLIC MOVES.
Don’t believe me…? Hope this is more than enough examples:
note: these charts are real time as the move was happening. I try REALLY hard to not “could of, would have, should have” …..I try my best.
I have used this chart in a lot when talking to other fellow risk takers. Look how they look the same and the period between the highs is almost exactly the same from a time perspective.
I did this one for my good friend Andy @seeitmarket …it was during the mania rush that was the run up in Bitcoin. Look familiar? The key is, just like now, I was simply trying to provide a “risk based” mindset of the mania that was bitcoin ….OBTW, I’m long BITCOIN thru Coinbase and I let the entire run go because it was a parabolic emotionally fueled mania. SO I WAITED!
And, well, here is now. I kept the Bitcoin (green line) to show the bearish thump and the fact that it is coming back.
I’m not saying these companies or assets or commodities are going to zero or going out of business. I’m just objectively saying that Sir Isaac Newton has yet to be proven wrong … unless in LEO (low earth orbit) EVERYTHING comes back to earth.
Good thing this doesn’t look parabolic, at all.
post from Friday:
update …notice the blue trend line that held as support — that is the reason (polarity) that we came back and touched it and now it’s support. that could do it for the bounce but after such a strong sell move, believe we ‘ll pop up and do another measured move UP into the low 160’s or even 170 before more selling …we still have a lot of emotional/parabolic “feelings” to work off …I expect another wave down after this bounce completes.
I believe … having had the amazing opportunity and privilege to fly high performance fighters while in the Navy, I usually don’t get excited about cars. basically, I’m not a car guy. however, last night I drove in a Tesla and it was amazing. frankly, w/out being on the pointy edge of the spear, it was the closest thing to a “cat shot”that I have experienced since leaving the Navy. WOW …
yes the engine and acceleration is amazing but the user interface and MSI (multi-sensor integration) is out of this world and, then, the music system — amazing. The American ingenuity present in this car gives me pause …it’s flipping an amazing machine.
because of that, TSLA is going to bounce today or Monday … just kidding, but maybe?
here’s the update below … I put the arcs in to show you a concept I call ‘musical polarity’. as a chartist, polarity is one of the first concepts taught. (support becomes resistance and resistance becomes support) it’s ‘usually’ in terms of horizontal areas/levels on a chart HOWEVER w/ a little ingenuity (see above) you can take it to another level. the use of arcs and how to “figure out” good ones and bad ones is a week long course. however, just know that the arcs on this chart are not drawn randomly.
- take the first impulse move down and “think” of that as a rock hitting the water (the blue arrow going down from the top) that rock depending on the height, weight and speed at which it hits the water will produce waves that emanate outward (down in this case)
- when projecting the waves outward use fibonacci, sacred geometry and musical notes to look for areas of FORMER support and resistance … those areas, now into the future “should” offer the same ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE A PATTERN COMPLETING. LIKE WE DO — NOW.
- the arc highlighted is 1.8877 which is the note of musical note F in the equal octave scale of music….the horizontal support (blue line) is the 1.618 ratio which we are familiar with. Note, it CAUSED THE BOUNCE of support and following it down to the horizontal you’ll find support, which it did.
- the light blue arrow is a equality projection and, guess what, it lands right at the low and the intersection of the two arcs.
- so, we are “at support” and should expect a bounce and, more than likely a target of the gap from 160-170. if we lose this level, watch out … remember we are in the phase of working off the PARABOLIC EXTREME of emotions and the price is seeking where it should have normally been ….
- last thing, if you will look at the light blue vertical line that can be used as timing …it’s the vertical component of the first impulse move down and, w/ all off the patterns and musical notes all coming together WELL it might also be TIME for support ….
if you have 100,000 sitting around — buy one of these cars. simply amazing …
get er’ done …