IBM pattern failure …

11/2/2018 – ouch.

The area labeled ‘FAILURE OF PATTERN BELOW’ is one of those levels that ‘should’ have acted as extremely nice support for IBM. Guess the operative word is ‘should’ w/ regard to that last sentence.  Take a look at that candle … boom. That folks, is what a pattern failure looks like.

so, if you look below, it’s now setting up for a support zone (dare I say BUY zone) in/around 88-89.  I’ll do some more work on it over the weekend but the BUY PATTERN mentioned w/ @seeitmarket went the way of the buffalo.

Bart

 

Is IBM Stock Heading Into The Buy Zone Again?

certainly appears to be setting up for a nice one …

Bart

RATIO ANALYSIS of XLP/NYSE Index – ain’t bearish folks, yet (UPDATE June 3, 2018)

06/03/2018 – quick update to the XLP/NYA ratio.  Still waiting for a BULLISH SRC to signal a ‘institutional shift’ to risk off assets in the form of staples and this ratio finding support (XLP / NYA) and starting to rise. While we did get a BULLISH MONTHLY HAMMER CANDLE in May we still have lower targets so need to keep the ‘bullish mindset’ for now.  Now, that being said, I added an RSI to the picture to get a feel for where we are …

1/ we are at the lowest levels seen since the 2007 financial crisis. yes, that’s true BUT take a closer look and you’ll find the ratio kept going down for 4 more years. 

let’s don’t get complacent but, per my last post w/ the XLK/XLP let’s be aware of BIG TARGETS BEING HIT across the circle of life (bonds, commodities, currencies, GLOBAL equities) to see the pivot.

Eurozone is quite the mess right now … where can they go?  Well, the US stock market doesn’t seem like a bad place now does it?

I’ll keep watching, closely, but this XLP / NYA ratio certainly appears to want to seek out the lower targets so that’s not bearish, for now.

Bart


 

if you’ve been following me for a while, you know I enjoy using advanced pattern recognition to ratio analysis.

for a bunch of XLP/NYSE Index analysis click here: https://bartscharts.com//?s=xlp+%2F+%24nya also here for @seeitmarket: https://www.seeitmarket.com/market-update-consumer-staples-xlp-nyse-composite-ratio-17676/

now, this most recent multi- week stock correction was ‘expected’ based on a zone of support coming in for the ratio. (see above link to read)

that being said, we did rally and now, of late, we have really started to sell off.

this means that institutional ‘mindset’ is showing ‘risk off’ or bullish market momentum.  

this ratio has picked the ‘exact’ weekly/monthly pivots since it’s inception and the tops/bottoms of 2000, 2002, 2007, 2009, etc.

I trust it … it’s falling out of the sky is telling me that, while some selling pressure might still be present, the BIG BOYS haven’t sought cover … (when the crap is hitting the fan they seek staples) so while this ratio  appears to being LIQUIDATED the big boys aren’t ducking and running for cover yet.

THESIS: consolidation/correction to occur or maybe even rally BUT we are going to see the RATIO keep falling, especially if we close below and fly thru the 7 years support zone …

sorry folks, no massive sky is falling or this is it from me … until this ratio finds BIG support and takes off like a rocket I need to remain on the bullish side of the fence … for now.  Just calling it like I see it. Honestly, DID NOT expect such a BIG sell off in the ratio.  But, guess what, that’s what its doing …

let me know if you have any questions …

Bart

PS – note the CYCLE (basic) time rolls into sometimes this month of April. And, we are in April so stand buy …

 

Bitcoin and it’s Parabolic Rise over @seeitmarket an update

12/21/2017 – have been vacationing w/ the family in Cabo.  Great time … below is the updated chart of Bitcoin Index.  would like to see another move lower to complete an A-B – C correction.

 

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https://www.seeitmarket.com/bitcoins-parabolic-move-3-drives-to-a-high-17531/

 

Continuing to Monitor the XLP / NYA important ratio …

did this for Andy and the gang @seeitmarket: https://www.seeitmarket.com/are-consumer-staples-signaling-a-volatility-omen-17331/

here’s an update as of Friday’s close:

If I learned anything from getting my CMT it was the power of ration analysis.  X/Y …. If X is stronger the chart goes up and if Y is stronger then the chart goes down. And, since we are charting securities guess what works on them –the PATTERNS.  So the theory goes IF the insititutions are risk off the chart goes down and volatility is suppressed.  If the institutions are risk adverse then the chart goes up and volatility picks up and stocks sell off.

Thesis:

  • MONTHLY of XLP / NYSE Index w/ candles being the ratio and the blue line being the NYSE Index.
    • Note, at EVERY major inflection of the NYSE Index the RATIO pivoted … it either inflected to go up or down BUT every move of the NYSE Index respected this move.
  • Monthly XLP / NYSE Index.
    • Note, most oversold in 6 years and slammed into the .382.  Weekly bearish close … did expect it to respect this area and w/ Bradley Date, Martin Armstrong Directional Change and the note from Mike – along, and most importantly, the PATTERNS I did expect this to find support and give at least a daily BUY signal.  It has not done that …but all is not lost.
  • Monthly XLP/ NYSE Index
    • Note, if we don’t find support here then we have a measured move target a little lower and, ultimately the big green target …
  • Daily XLP/NYSE Index
    • Note, the time component (somewhat of a 3 drives to a bottom but still in line w/ ‘time’ of every rally ….
    • Note, the 1.618 w/ an AB=CD (nice time on AB=CD) right at our .382 from the all time low
  • Intraday (5 minute) XLP / NYSE
    • Yes, we closed at the lows … but yes we ‘really didn’t’ break the lows so in order for this market to pivot and correct next week believe this level needs to hold and rally tomorrow morning.

 

Conclusion: believe this ratio remains important for the overall health of the market and if it can hold these lows then volatility should uptick and the market sells off. IF we breakdown from these levels THEN we’ll seek the next lower target and the market will continue top march up a wall of worry.

GOOGLE update

07/16/2017 – well, the area defined below did hold and, thus far, show a lot of strength blasting off from this area.  for now, would look for 998-990 to act as near term resistance.  There isn’t a lot of form/structure to look for a pattern SELL so for now watch the numbers discussed in the last sentence.

Chart below is an intraday – 4 hour chart of GOOGL.

Hope your having a good weekend.

Bart

 

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I’ve spent some time over @seeitmarket working on GOOGLE.  This was my last post:

https://www.seeitmarket.com/google-stock-update-googl-watching-top-trading-15550/

As you are probably aware, it blew thru the target area. Now, it did spend roughly a year and half at the target level but in the end it blasted off.

Back to the drawing board …

Where are we now .. well, being a pattern dude and trying not to inject personal opinion I just try to call it like I see it.  GOOGLE has a nice pattern hitting … so if the bull run is to continue current levels or a little lower need to hold.

I tried (being the operative word) to give a realistic count.  Ha, that didn’t work … but I know where waves 1 and 2 are!  I’m going to keep the rest of the chart after 2 clear .. want to see what happens around the buy level above. But note the chart below .. some interesting stuff going on …AB=CD (blue arrows), Wave 1 equals the current wave .. and wave 1 *2.71828 exactly nailed the top (yes the natural log number – it’s a key number folks).  So, we shouldn’t be that surprised on the resistance found on GOOGL

Also, you know I love long term LOG trend lines.  As the chart below shows, we have 3 key trend lines … I recommend monitoring the blue and red lines.  the blue, from the polarity principle, SHOULD be strong support. If that breaks, then a move to the red trend line (the one that has been the key support for ALL advances) should get attacked.  IF WE BREAK BELOW (on a weekly close (?)) THAT TREND LINE THIS PUPPY COULD REALLY ACCELERATE TO THE DOWNSIDE.  So, monitor GOOGL closely.

GOOGLE update

I’ve spent some time over @seeitmarket working on GOOGLE.  This was my last post:

https://www.seeitmarket.com/google-stock-update-googl-watching-top-trading-15550/

As you are probably aware, it blew thru the target area. Now, it did spend roughly a year and half at the target level but in the end it blasted off.

Back to the drawing board …

Where are we now .. well, being a pattern dude and trying not to inject personal opinion I just try to call it like I see it.  GOOGLE has a nice pattern hitting … so if the bull run is to continue current levels or a little lower need to hold.

I tried (being the operative word) to give a realistic count.  Ha, that didn’t work … but I know where waves 1 and 2 are!  I’m going to keep the rest of the chart after 2 clear .. want to see what happens around the buy level above. But note the chart below .. some interesting stuff going on …AB=CD (blue arrows), Wave 1 equals the current wave .. and wave 1 *2.71828 exactly nailed the top (yes the natural log number – it’s a key number folks).  So, we shouldn’t be that surprised on the resistance found on GOOGL

Also, you know I love long term LOG trend lines.  As the chart below shows, we have 3 key trend lines … I recommend monitoring the blue and red lines.  the blue, from the polarity principle, SHOULD be strong support. If that breaks, then a move to the red trend line (the one that has been the key support for ALL advances) should get attacked.  IF WE BREAK BELOW (on a weekly close (?)) THAT TREND LINE THIS PUPPY COULD REALLY ACCELERATE TO THE DOWNSIDE.  So, monitor GOOGL closely.

Molly Hatchet and the Bond Complex – flirting with disaster? Update 04/01/2018

04/01/2018 – update

note, the prices bounced nicely off the long term Pitchfork (extended 1.27) and w/ the RSI buried deeply, this ‘bounce’ might surprise some as we work off an extreme oversold (monthly) condition since 1985. I still hold out that we have a MAJOR top in the Bond Complex and this is an opportunity to go long rates (short bonds) in the coming weeks.

this ‘trend line’ is the line in the sand w/ regard to bonds and the rate complex.

Bart

 

02/10/2018 – update.

note: a potential H+S MONTHLY top for the long bond along w/ a crucial adams pitchfork trendline make the area we are at RIGHT NOW crucial for the bond complex moving forward.

is Molly Hatchet – Flirting With Disaster – on the horizon?

R-482701-1348596305-2972.jpeg.jpg

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here’s the daily chart updated showing target area was hit …

Page_18-02-10_09-41-36.png

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06/20/2017 – tracking SLOWLY up to the desire short zone.  IF (the big IF) we are correct here the next move down is going to be very very strong.  Hold onto your hats.   A hint that the ‘thesis’ is wrong is if we blow thru the highlighted area.  We shouldn’t …

Bart

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1/21/2017 – would really like this to start back up again into the areas highlighted.  could be the trade of the year …

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sent to this to Andy and the gang over the weekend …let me know if you have any questions.

Bart

https://www.seeitmarket.com/tlt-update-long-duration-treasury-bonds-deeply-oversold-16360/