04/01/2018 – update
note, the prices bounced nicely off the long term Pitchfork (extended 1.27) and w/ the RSI buried deeply, this ‘bounce’ might surprise some as we work off an extreme oversold (monthly) condition since 1985. I still hold out that we have a MAJOR top in the Bond Complex and this is an opportunity to go long rates (short bonds) in the coming weeks.
this ‘trend line’ is the line in the sand w/ regard to bonds and the rate complex.
Bart
02/10/2018 – update.
note: a potential H+S MONTHLY top for the long bond along w/ a crucial adams pitchfork trendline make the area we are at RIGHT NOW crucial for the bond complex moving forward.
is Molly Hatchet – Flirting With Disaster – on the horizon?
here’s the daily chart updated showing target area was hit …
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06/20/2017 – tracking SLOWLY up to the desire short zone. IF (the big IF) we are correct here the next move down is going to be very very strong. Hold onto your hats. A hint that the ‘thesis’ is wrong is if we blow thru the highlighted area. We shouldn’t …
Bart
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1/21/2017 – would really like this to start back up again into the areas highlighted. could be the trade of the year …
sent to this to Andy and the gang over the weekend …let me know if you have any questions.
Bart
https://www.seeitmarket.com/tlt-update-long-duration-treasury-bonds-deeply-oversold-16360/
Hello,
Today is 3/29/2020. Your charts are right on. I have a question about your thoughts on potential oil price target you post a couple days ago, which means it could go down to between 10-15 USD. I have been watching gold to oil ratio. Right now it is at 75, the previous all time high was about 35-40. All time average is 16. For the ratio continue to go up it is really crazy but is not impossible. What is your thoughts–and would that impact your thinking on oil target?
Best,
Ray
thank you for visiting the site .. honestly, have not spent much time on the gold/oil ratio. THANK YOU for calling it to my attention. I will post the ratio so you can see we do have a target a little higher so it’s not out of the realm of the possible to have oil target that 12 level in the coming weeks. believe it or not, I’m actually bearish gold … believe we finished a multi-year correction at the most recent high and ‘should’ (if I’m right – the big if :)) start down in a 5 wave sequence … perhaps drawing gold below 1000. hope this helps .. please pay attention to HYG for now. it hit the pattern and held … we need to stay above that level for the foreseeable future else, could get pretty ugly. best to you, your family and friends during this time. look forward to hearing from you again. best and warmly – Bart