Chinese Yuan and Apple ($AAPL)

folks, knowing what’s going on in the currency market is so crucial .. not only does it completely dwarf any other market out there in volume/volatility but it also play such a crucial roll in the flow of funds, affects on commodities, etc.

back in 2015 I posted “the most important chart of 2015″ and it was the Chinese Yuan: https://bartscharts.com/2015/12/09/most-important-chart-to-end-2014-revisited-in-december-2015/

I was aware that $AAPL did a bunch of manufacturing over there and, in the past, had shown the correlation of the price of Palladium to $AAPL stock. You can check that out here – https://bartscharts.com//?s=palladium

it’s take a little bit of time – imagine that – but as the entire world was wondering ….”hmmm, I wonder if the Chinese are done letting the Yuan gain strength against the USD” $AAPL was making it’s all time high and digesting this same thought .. (see dashed red rectangle below).  The Chinese answered the question w/ a BIG EXPLOSIVE CANDLE … Answer: guess this move weakening the Yuan is real.

Now $AAPL. Note, when the “big move” came by the Chinese AAPL cracked and, since then, has been correlating nicely w/ the swings in the Yuan.

So, cliff notes, pay attention the Chinese Yuan and $APPL together …will this correlation break in the future?  Probably but for now as the Yuan continues to weaken against the USD, $AAPL sure seems to be having a tough time …

Let me know if you have any questions … continue to make it a great weekend wherever you are….

B

 

PS – here’s some work for $AAPL over @seeitmarket

 

Page_16-06-05_10-56-11

Meanwhile ….China, DB, Junk Bonds

GoPro

Shake Shack

Yahoo

Twitter

Facebook

hate to say it …but, um, who cares?

There are some MONSTER currency moves going on right now … watching China like a hawk.  Is is starting down again against the USD?

Pay attention to this, THEN look at the “other” stuff …

Page_15-11-08_10-50-32

DB – largest holder of derivatives “alive” for now …nice 5 waves down into the .786.  Expect a rally into high 20’s then back down again …?

Page_15-11-08_10-55-20

JNK … nice bounce from the 35 pattern.  hit .786 of last swing and starting back down … hmmm?  all good, all quiet on the Western Front, nothing to see here folks move along?  Watch this one – closely.

Page_15-11-08_10-57-35

Still the most important chart out there …redux

I would say a “high percentage” of the Americans out there are going to be really excited about $SHAK doing a secondary offering when, overnight, the WORLD’s 2nd largest economy was at it again …

Bloomberg: “China’s move has raised the risk of a “currency war” as export rivals seek a weaker exchange rate to stay competitive, according to Stephen Roach, a senior fellow at Yale University and former non-executive chairman for Morgan Stanley in Asia.

“It’s hard to believe this will be a one-off adjustment,” Roach said. “In a weak global economy, it will take a lot more than a 1.9 percent devaluation to jump-start sagging Chinese exports. That raises the distinct possibility of a new and increasingly destabilizing skirmish in the ever-widening global currency war. The race to the bottom just became a good deal more treacherous.””

WSJ: “The stability in the [yuan] over the past few months, in the face of a stronger [U.S. dollar], had helped to serve as somewhat of an anchor for the region’s currencies,” said Khoon Goh, senior forex strategist at ANZ Research. “With today’s move, this is clearly no longer the case.” The risk of further yuan weakness, he added, would pressure Asian currencies even lower.”

USA Today: “A devalued currency is sure to boost foreign trade by making Chinese goods cheaper overseas. In the process, it helps guarantee that Chinese factories will keep their work forces mostly intact, with millions on payrolls, and help avoid the political turmoil that mass layoffs could produce.”

So, again, please pay attention to these moves folks.  They are “big time” and show the global macro picture … currencies run EVERYTHING.

That being said, as a pure play chartist/pattern recognition dude … 6.3351-6.3600 are key.  We get thru those and things could really heat up, so to speak.

Isn’t this fun?

Rock on, ok?

Bart

Chinese Yuan devalued overnight ...
Chinese Yuan devalued overnight …

 


 

09/06/2015

What is the Chinese Central Bank up to …?

Main20150609203853

Per Bloomberg.com a couple hours ago:

China’s one-year interest-rate swaps completed the biggest weekly drop in four months after the central bank cut borrowing costs and stopped draining funds in open-market operations.

The People’s Bank of China reduced its benchmark rates for the first time since 2012 a week ago, supporting growth in an economy set for the slowest full-year expansion in two decades. Yesterday’s auction window was the first since July that the monetary authority didn’t offer repurchase agreements at, and maturing contracts added a net 35 billion yuan ($5.7 billion) to the financial system this week, the most since August.

watch this … closely.

meanwhile, over in China ….

Yuan ... no change but does appear ready to move.
Yuan … no change but does appear ready to move.


 

 

 

What is the Chinese Central Bank up to …?

Main20150609203853



 

Per Bloomberg.com a couple hours ago:

China’s one-year interest-rate swaps completed the biggest weekly drop in four months after the central bank cut borrowing costs and stopped draining funds in open-market operations.

The People’s Bank of China reduced its benchmark rates for the first time since 2012 a week ago, supporting growth in an economy set for the slowest full-year expansion in two decades. Yesterday’s auction window was the first since July that the monetary authority didn’t offer repurchase agreements at, and maturing contracts added a net 35 billion yuan ($5.7 billion) to the financial system this week, the most since August.

 

Chinese Yuan Pattern Complete
Chinese Yuan Pattern Complete

watch this … closely.

Still the most important chart out there …

What is the Chinese Central Bank up to …?

Main20150609203853



 

Per Bloomberg.com a couple hours ago:

China’s one-year interest-rate swaps completed the biggest weekly drop in four months after the central bank cut borrowing costs and stopped draining funds in open-market operations.

The People’s Bank of China reduced its benchmark rates for the first time since 2012 a week ago, supporting growth in an economy set for the slowest full-year expansion in two decades. Yesterday’s auction window was the first since July that the monetary authority didn’t offer repurchase agreements at, and maturing contracts added a net 35 billion yuan ($5.7 billion) to the financial system this week, the most since August.

 

Chinese Yuan Pattern Complete
Chinese Yuan Pattern Complete

watch this … closely.

Chinese Yuan … decline continuing?

Per Bloomberg.com a couple hours ago:

China’s one-year interest-rate swaps completed the biggest weekly drop in four months after the central bank cut borrowing costs and stopped draining funds in open-market operations.

The People’s Bank of China reduced its benchmark rates for the first time since 2012 a week ago, supporting growth in an economy set for the slowest full-year expansion in two decades. Yesterday’s auction window was the first since July that the monetary authority didn’t offer repurchase agreements at, and maturing contracts added a net 35 billion yuan ($5.7 billion) to the financial system this week, the most since August.

 

Chinese Yuan Pattern Complete
Chinese Yuan Pattern Complete

watch this … closely.

Chinese Yuan Pattern complete ….

 

09/11/2014: for all intensive purposes this BUY USD vs CHINESE YUAN pattern is complete … WATCH this closely as we continue to monitor the GLOBAL flow of funds.  I’m not a fundamentalist (I have nothing against it, I’m just not smart enough to understand it – remember – I draw pictures w/ crayons) but I am aware that 100’s of BILLIONS of dollars are closely aligned to the “EASY” (my emphasis) LONG Chinese vs USD and if we get another UP move (YUAN weakness) there could be nice little unwind ….

for now, all appears quiet on the Chinese front but don’t discount this patterns, as the YUAN could weaken big time and in the global flow of funds that is a big deal.

PATTERN COMPLETE - BUY USD vs CHINESE YUAN
PATTERN COMPLETE – BUY USD vs CHINESE YUAN

 


 

09/08/2014 – let’s not forget this looming shot across the bow.  It’s close/at our BUY level so watch this Currency Pair closely. The “trend” is DOWN so expect the levels shown to fail but if they don’t …that could be a “big deal.”

Chinese Yuan at/approaching key levels
Chinese Yuan at/approaching key levels


 

For years institutions have “bet” on the continued strength of the Yuan as a “safe bet.”

That might have all changed around mid January of this year … from Jan-March the Yuan weakened appreciably.

To quote one news article – “this move is particularly notable, as the yuan has broken through the 6.20 yuan per dollar mark. At that point, some investments that bet on a strengthening yuan should start to incur “sizeable losses,”  (my emphasis added) according to foreign exchange strategists from Bank of America Merrill Lynch.”

Folks, the pattern shown below is a BUY pattern which, if correct, will lead to another move HIGHER – weak Yuan vs the USD.  Right now, as we move down from the notable move UP perhaps all seems OK.  Put this into the context of the recent sell-off in the equity markets —  I’m guessing here, but I bet it’s “safe” to assume 100’s of billions of dollars are tied up in some exotic way for the institutions to grab any yield out there w/ regards to the “safe bet” on the Chinese Yuan.  If this thing starts going back up again then my hypothesis (only a thought) is the “institutions” are going to try and unwind these positions – maybe in a hurry.

There are many ways countries muscle their weight around … cyber, traditional weapons, deterrence, etc.  In the end, these are usually reactions to the global flow of funds.  The next move by the Chinese will be extremely interesting (folks, they control (manipulate) the currency level – it’s not a true float) on the global scale.

If you don’t think it’s true then just think of the masterful move by Mr. Putin.  Right before an invasion of Ukraine (maybe) the Russians sign an order to BUY BILLIONS of dollars of planes from Boeing.  Now isn’t that interesting …. (http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/06/ukraine-crisis-russia-airlines-idUSL6N0QC3JK20140806 )And, why they are at it, let’s give Snowden another 3 years in our country. CHECKMATE …  China, your next move please?

WATCH CLOSELY ….

B

 

on pressure from the US (and others) the YUAN has steadily strengthened for years ... is that over?
on pressure from the US (and others) the YUAN has steadily strengthened for years … is that over?
BUY pattern appearing on the Chinese Yuan vs USD (if holds = YUAN weak)
BUY pattern appearing on the Chinese Yuan vs USD (if holds = YUAN weak)

Chinese Yuan Pattern forming ….

09/08/2014 – let’s not forget this looming shot across the bow.  It’s close/at our BUY level so watch this Currency Pair closely. The “trend” is DOWN so expect the levels shown to fail but if they don’t …that could be a “big deal.”

Chinese Yuan at/approaching key levels
Chinese Yuan at/approaching key levels


 

For years institutions have “bet” on the continued strength of the Yuan as a “safe bet.”

That might have all changed around mid January of this year … from Jan-March the Yuan weakened appreciably.

To quote one news article – “this move is particularly notable, as the yuan has broken through the 6.20 yuan per dollar mark. At that point, some investments that bet on a strengthening yuan should start to incur “sizeable losses,”  (my emphasis added) according to foreign exchange strategists from Bank of America Merrill Lynch.”

Folks, the pattern shown below is a BUY pattern which, if correct, will lead to another move HIGHER – weak Yuan vs the USD.  Right now, as we move down from the notable move UP perhaps all seems OK.  Put this into the context of the recent sell-off in the equity markets —  I’m guessing here, but I bet it’s “safe” to assume 100’s of billions of dollars are tied up in some exotic way for the institutions to grab any yield out there w/ regards to the “safe bet” on the Chinese Yuan.  If this thing starts going back up again then my hypothesis (only a thought) is the “institutions” are going to try and unwind these positions – maybe in a hurry.

There are many ways countries muscle their weight around … cyber, traditional weapons, deterrence, etc.  In the end, these are usually reactions to the global flow of funds.  The next move by the Chinese will be extremely interesting (folks, they control (manipulate) the currency level – it’s not a true float) on the global scale.

If you don’t think it’s true then just think of the masterful move by Mr. Putin.  Right before an invasion of Ukraine (maybe) the Russians sign an order to BUY BILLIONS of dollars of planes from Boeing.  Now isn’t that interesting …. (http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/06/ukraine-crisis-russia-airlines-idUSL6N0QC3JK20140806 )And, why they are at it, let’s give Snowden another 3 years in our country. CHECKMATE …  China, your next move please?

WATCH CLOSELY ….

B

 

on pressure from the US (and others) the YUAN has steadily strengthened for years ... is that over?
on pressure from the US (and others) the YUAN has steadily strengthened for years … is that over?
BUY pattern appearing on the Chinese Yuan vs USD (if holds = YUAN weak)
BUY pattern appearing on the Chinese Yuan vs USD (if holds = YUAN weak)

Chinese Yuan Pattern forming ….

For years institutions have “bet” on the continued strength of the Yuan as a “safe bet.”

That might have all changed around mid January of this year … from Jan-March the Yuan weakened appreciably.

To quote one news article – “this move is particularly notable, as the yuan has broken through the 6.20 yuan per dollar mark. At that point, some investments that bet on a strengthening yuan should start to incur “sizeable losses,”  (my emphasis added) according to foreign exchange strategists from Bank of America Merrill Lynch.”

Folks, the pattern shown below is a BUY pattern which, if correct, will lead to another move HIGHER – weak Yuan vs the USD.  Right now, as we move down from the notable move UP perhaps all seems OK.  Put this into the context of the recent sell-off in the equity markets —  I’m guessing here, but I bet it’s “safe” to assume 100’s of billions of dollars are tied up in some exotic way for the institutions to grab any yield out there w/ regards to the “safe bet” on the Chinese Yuan.  If this thing starts going back up again then my hypothesis (only a thought) is the “institutions” are going to try and unwind these positions – maybe in a hurry.

There are many ways countries muscle their weight around … cyber, traditional weapons, deterrence, etc.  In the end, these are usually reactions to the global flow of funds.  The next move by the Chinese will be extremely interesting (folks, they control (manipulate) the currency level – it’s not a true float) on the global scale.

If you don’t think it’s true then just think of the masterful move by Mr. Putin.  Right before an invasion of Ukraine (maybe) the Russians sign an order to BUY BILLIONS of dollars of planes from Boeing.  Now isn’t that interesting …. (http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/06/ukraine-crisis-russia-airlines-idUSL6N0QC3JK20140806 )And, why they are at it, let’s give Snowden another 3 years in our country. CHECKMATE …  China, your next move please?

WATCH CLOSELY ….

B

 

on pressure from the US (and others) the YUAN has steadily strengthened for years ... is that over?
on pressure from the US (and others) the YUAN has steadily strengthened for years … is that over?
BUY pattern appearing on the Chinese Yuan vs USD (if holds = YUAN weak)
BUY pattern appearing on the Chinese Yuan vs USD (if holds = YUAN weak)