well, the US struck Syria today.
Spratley’s are heating up and, well, they always have … made me think of China and Taiwan.
Would you check out the BUY PATTERN on the New Taiwan Dollar? Two MAJOR patterns on a monthly chart all coming in/around the same area.
PAY ATTENTION.
folks, knowing what’s going on in the currency market is so crucial .. not only does it completely dwarf any other market out there in volume/volatility but it also play such a crucial roll in the flow of funds, affects on commodities, etc.
back in 2015 I posted “the most important chart of 2015″ and it was the Chinese Yuan: https://bartscharts.com/2015/12/09/most-important-chart-to-end-2014-revisited-in-december-2015/
I was aware that $AAPL did a bunch of manufacturing over there and, in the past, had shown the correlation of the price of Palladium to $AAPL stock. You can check that out here – https://bartscharts.com//?s=palladium
it’s take a little bit of time – imagine that – but as the entire world was wondering ….”hmmm, I wonder if the Chinese are done letting the Yuan gain strength against the USD” $AAPL was making it’s all time high and digesting this same thought .. (see dashed red rectangle below). The Chinese answered the question w/ a BIG EXPLOSIVE CANDLE … Answer: guess this move weakening the Yuan is real.
Now $AAPL. Note, when the “big move” came by the Chinese AAPL cracked and, since then, has been correlating nicely w/ the swings in the Yuan.
So, cliff notes, pay attention the Chinese Yuan and $APPL together …will this correlation break in the future? Probably but for now as the Yuan continues to weaken against the USD, $AAPL sure seems to be having a tough time …
Let me know if you have any questions … continue to make it a great weekend wherever you are….
B
PS – here’s some work for $AAPL over @seeitmarket
GoPro
Shake Shack
Yahoo
hate to say it …but, um, who cares?
There are some MONSTER currency moves going on right now … watching China like a hawk. Is is starting down again against the USD?
Pay attention to this, THEN look at the “other” stuff …
DB – largest holder of derivatives “alive” for now …nice 5 waves down into the .786. Expect a rally into high 20’s then back down again …?
JNK … nice bounce from the 35 pattern. hit .786 of last swing and starting back down … hmmm? all good, all quiet on the Western Front, nothing to see here folks move along? Watch this one – closely.
I would say a “high percentage” of the Americans out there are going to be really excited about $SHAK doing a secondary offering when, overnight, the WORLD’s 2nd largest economy was at it again …
Bloomberg: “China’s move has raised the risk of a “currency war” as export rivals seek a weaker exchange rate to stay competitive, according to Stephen Roach, a senior fellow at Yale University and former non-executive chairman for Morgan Stanley in Asia.
“It’s hard to believe this will be a one-off adjustment,” Roach said. “In a weak global economy, it will take a lot more than a 1.9 percent devaluation to jump-start sagging Chinese exports. That raises the distinct possibility of a new and increasingly destabilizing skirmish in the ever-widening global currency war. The race to the bottom just became a good deal more treacherous.””
WSJ: “The stability in the [yuan] over the past few months, in the face of a stronger [U.S. dollar], had helped to serve as somewhat of an anchor for the region’s currencies,” said Khoon Goh, senior forex strategist at ANZ Research. “With today’s move, this is clearly no longer the case.” The risk of further yuan weakness, he added, would pressure Asian currencies even lower.”
USA Today: “A devalued currency is sure to boost foreign trade by making Chinese goods cheaper overseas. In the process, it helps guarantee that Chinese factories will keep their work forces mostly intact, with millions on payrolls, and help avoid the political turmoil that mass layoffs could produce.”
So, again, please pay attention to these moves folks. They are “big time” and show the global macro picture … currencies run EVERYTHING.
That being said, as a pure play chartist/pattern recognition dude … 6.3351-6.3600 are key. We get thru those and things could really heat up, so to speak.
Isn’t this fun?
Rock on, ok?
Bart
09/06/2015
What is the Chinese Central Bank up to …?
Per Bloomberg.com a couple hours ago:
China’s one-year interest-rate swaps completed the biggest weekly drop in four months after the central bank cut borrowing costs and stopped draining funds in open-market operations.
The People’s Bank of China reduced its benchmark rates for the first time since 2012 a week ago, supporting growth in an economy set for the slowest full-year expansion in two decades. Yesterday’s auction window was the first since July that the monetary authority didn’t offer repurchase agreements at, and maturing contracts added a net 35 billion yuan ($5.7 billion) to the financial system this week, the most since August.
watch this … closely.
What is the Chinese Central Bank up to …?
Per Bloomberg.com a couple hours ago:
China’s one-year interest-rate swaps completed the biggest weekly drop in four months after the central bank cut borrowing costs and stopped draining funds in open-market operations.
The People’s Bank of China reduced its benchmark rates for the first time since 2012 a week ago, supporting growth in an economy set for the slowest full-year expansion in two decades. Yesterday’s auction window was the first since July that the monetary authority didn’t offer repurchase agreements at, and maturing contracts added a net 35 billion yuan ($5.7 billion) to the financial system this week, the most since August.
watch this … closely.
What is the Chinese Central Bank up to …?
Per Bloomberg.com a couple hours ago:
China’s one-year interest-rate swaps completed the biggest weekly drop in four months after the central bank cut borrowing costs and stopped draining funds in open-market operations.
The People’s Bank of China reduced its benchmark rates for the first time since 2012 a week ago, supporting growth in an economy set for the slowest full-year expansion in two decades. Yesterday’s auction window was the first since July that the monetary authority didn’t offer repurchase agreements at, and maturing contracts added a net 35 billion yuan ($5.7 billion) to the financial system this week, the most since August.
watch this … closely.
Per Bloomberg.com a couple hours ago:
China’s one-year interest-rate swaps completed the biggest weekly drop in four months after the central bank cut borrowing costs and stopped draining funds in open-market operations.
The People’s Bank of China reduced its benchmark rates for the first time since 2012 a week ago, supporting growth in an economy set for the slowest full-year expansion in two decades. Yesterday’s auction window was the first since July that the monetary authority didn’t offer repurchase agreements at, and maturing contracts added a net 35 billion yuan ($5.7 billion) to the financial system this week, the most since August.
watch this … closely.
09/11/2014: for all intensive purposes this BUY USD vs CHINESE YUAN pattern is complete … WATCH this closely as we continue to monitor the GLOBAL flow of funds. I’m not a fundamentalist (I have nothing against it, I’m just not smart enough to understand it – remember – I draw pictures w/ crayons) but I am aware that 100’s of BILLIONS of dollars are closely aligned to the “EASY” (my emphasis) LONG Chinese vs USD and if we get another UP move (YUAN weakness) there could be nice little unwind ….
for now, all appears quiet on the Chinese front but don’t discount this patterns, as the YUAN could weaken big time and in the global flow of funds that is a big deal.
09/08/2014 – let’s not forget this looming shot across the bow. It’s close/at our BUY level so watch this Currency Pair closely. The “trend” is DOWN so expect the levels shown to fail but if they don’t …that could be a “big deal.”
For years institutions have “bet” on the continued strength of the Yuan as a “safe bet.”
That might have all changed around mid January of this year … from Jan-March the Yuan weakened appreciably.
To quote one news article – “this move is particularly notable, as the yuan has broken through the 6.20 yuan per dollar mark. At that point, some investments that bet on a strengthening yuan should start to incur “sizeable losses,” (my emphasis added) according to foreign exchange strategists from Bank of America Merrill Lynch.”
Folks, the pattern shown below is a BUY pattern which, if correct, will lead to another move HIGHER – weak Yuan vs the USD. Right now, as we move down from the notable move UP perhaps all seems OK. Put this into the context of the recent sell-off in the equity markets — I’m guessing here, but I bet it’s “safe” to assume 100’s of billions of dollars are tied up in some exotic way for the institutions to grab any yield out there w/ regards to the “safe bet” on the Chinese Yuan. If this thing starts going back up again then my hypothesis (only a thought) is the “institutions” are going to try and unwind these positions – maybe in a hurry.
There are many ways countries muscle their weight around … cyber, traditional weapons, deterrence, etc. In the end, these are usually reactions to the global flow of funds. The next move by the Chinese will be extremely interesting (folks, they control (manipulate) the currency level – it’s not a true float) on the global scale.
If you don’t think it’s true then just think of the masterful move by Mr. Putin. Right before an invasion of Ukraine (maybe) the Russians sign an order to BUY BILLIONS of dollars of planes from Boeing. Now isn’t that interesting …. (http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/06/ukraine-crisis-russia-airlines-idUSL6N0QC3JK20140806 )And, why they are at it, let’s give Snowden another 3 years in our country. CHECKMATE … China, your next move please?
WATCH CLOSELY ….
B
09/08/2014 – let’s not forget this looming shot across the bow. It’s close/at our BUY level so watch this Currency Pair closely. The “trend” is DOWN so expect the levels shown to fail but if they don’t …that could be a “big deal.”
For years institutions have “bet” on the continued strength of the Yuan as a “safe bet.”
That might have all changed around mid January of this year … from Jan-March the Yuan weakened appreciably.
To quote one news article – “this move is particularly notable, as the yuan has broken through the 6.20 yuan per dollar mark. At that point, some investments that bet on a strengthening yuan should start to incur “sizeable losses,” (my emphasis added) according to foreign exchange strategists from Bank of America Merrill Lynch.”
Folks, the pattern shown below is a BUY pattern which, if correct, will lead to another move HIGHER – weak Yuan vs the USD. Right now, as we move down from the notable move UP perhaps all seems OK. Put this into the context of the recent sell-off in the equity markets — I’m guessing here, but I bet it’s “safe” to assume 100’s of billions of dollars are tied up in some exotic way for the institutions to grab any yield out there w/ regards to the “safe bet” on the Chinese Yuan. If this thing starts going back up again then my hypothesis (only a thought) is the “institutions” are going to try and unwind these positions – maybe in a hurry.
There are many ways countries muscle their weight around … cyber, traditional weapons, deterrence, etc. In the end, these are usually reactions to the global flow of funds. The next move by the Chinese will be extremely interesting (folks, they control (manipulate) the currency level – it’s not a true float) on the global scale.
If you don’t think it’s true then just think of the masterful move by Mr. Putin. Right before an invasion of Ukraine (maybe) the Russians sign an order to BUY BILLIONS of dollars of planes from Boeing. Now isn’t that interesting …. (http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/06/ukraine-crisis-russia-airlines-idUSL6N0QC3JK20140806 )And, why they are at it, let’s give Snowden another 3 years in our country. CHECKMATE … China, your next move please?
WATCH CLOSELY ….
B
