All eyes remain on the USD. we have a large target looming a little lower.
That being said, we are approaching a very critical time from a cyclic perspective. We have also completed a “valid” SELL pattern on the SPX. So, we either start down early this week or we blast thru the pattern higher into more targets.
Either way, I DO NOT think that the market is done going down. We have more waves lower … the timing will be dependent on the US DOLLAR and the PATTERNS present.
As expected we are rallying after completing 5 waves. If you take a peak at the (2) around 4077 that is the beginning of the wave that we are retracing. Take note, we could go all the way up to that level and still fail and the count would be valid.
Also, take note that this is only a 15 minute chart .. I’m down on a lower timeframe because I feel confident in the “big 2” at 4196 is a correct label so I’m “down in the weeds” trying to ascertain where this bounce will stall and then start back down.
My bias remains bearish and I see this as a short term bounce that needs to be shorted.
First level to take a crack at it is 3957:
ABCD – dashed red arrows
ABCD slams right into “measured move” (red triangle)
Expect a rally the next couple days …perhaps a slight gap down but eventually support and then a rally should occur. Futures tonight are already providing that “commentary” so I’d expect a larger than “normal” rally due to the world is coming unglued (it is) but you know what I’m saying … “everyone” expected a blood bath tonight when the futures opened.
5 waves down complete … expect a rally into the circled area “to start” .. why “to start” – well – I would expect a large rally tomorrow if everyone has been told everything is OK and that circled area is the area of the 4th wave of a lesser degree so that’s an initial target.
But, as I typed below on the chart – the entire rally from (2) or 4080’s can be retraced and this count remains valid.
So, I’m guilty as charged in thinking this is an “easy” trade I’m shorting the market because it’s all going to come unglued !!!! TAKE THAT and you wake up and the entire thing has slammed against you. Been there done that and ..don’t everyone want to be there again.
Taking the banks and all the real stuff that are important away … Folks looks like we just completed wave 1 down of the “c’ Wave or Wave III (not sure one it is yet) and therefore a rather large rally could happen. WE WANT TO BE SHORT AT THE END OF THIS RALLY!
Hope the rally comes and it’s real and my count is completely wrong … hope is a strategy, you know?
I try to make it clear on the chart below that I just “don’t have a clue” if the ATH on the S&P 500 is THE HIGH or A HIGH … I don’t have the data and, frankly, I’ve seen very amazing professionals say it is THE HIGH and also say A HIGH. Both, totally possible. NOBODY KNOWS except the Architect !!!
With that backdrop, you can see that this chart is a “bullish conclusion” of this correction and support shall be found and off we go.
I would hold my powder dry to go long … remember, in this case we have a 3rd wave of the C wave starting and that’s UGLY so we’ll have plenty of time to get long and, as you can see, using our measured moves you can see we have a nice thumping coming lower.
So, there we have 3232ish level w/ 4 ratio’s and a little higher a 3 drives to a bottom (orange arrows) and the percentage decline from 2020. the 2950 ish is our ABCD (black arrows) and a nice overlap of .618 and .5 from the 2009 low.
One of those two should hold … and then, guess we’ll just have to wait and see. I’m not really looking forward to that …
One of these amazing professionals will be proven correct and they both have the guts to make “the call” … my call will be 1/ trying to get short into the zone shown (I’ve been stopped out twice trying to short this market but my analysis has been spot on … yup.) and then 2/ stepping up to BUY to test the “trend is your friend till it ends” thesis.
If our levels work, then were long for a multi year run into new highs.
If they get blown thru and fail either like a hot knife thru butter or provide some support but then, after a week or so, are taken out THEN things are really in the “other” category of the good/other grade category.
love that saying from the Big Lebowski … what a great movie.
so, here we go folks .. I’ve just ran thru the DJIA, NASDAQ and S&P 500 and ALL have sell patterns.
what does that mean? well, nothing … right? it’s all probability …
but, that’s what we play, probability …so, we have Gartley SELL patterns across the board – they will 1/ work or 2/ not work.
also, our favorite ratio is banging against the bottom of the range that it’s been swimming in for months .. but, take a look , at this lower level you will see an AB=CD, a 3 drives to a bottom and a butterfly BUY on the ratio. so, when the ratio goes UP then the market usually goes down …
we break down below our XLP/NYA level this puppy could rocket ship higher and, then again, the sell patterns work, the XLP/NYA level holds and we start selling off again …
think about it … went to a long term Palladium chart and was able to calculate the low of 80 ish in Jan 1991 (yeah, 30 years ago) and then figured it was close based on the sell off .. well we hit it and YAWN HO HUM I would expect it to EXPLODE off that level … certainly looks like a dead cat bounce to me … hmmm
I like the lower blue level for BIG support and then, perhaps, a chance to buy or get the bounce and exit before it really gets ugly. (hint hint – it isn’t yet)