Tag: S&P500

S&P 500 – September 14, 2023

Extremely important pattern appearing on the S&P 500 / ES tonight. As I was cruising the charts I noticed this SELL PATTERN on the cash S&P 500:

The reason this is so important is the most recent high is “supposed” to be the second wave / b-wave high and we “should” be going down … failing this pattern STILL gives weigh to the higher target shown and we have that BIG GAP to fill so it’s not a “sure thing” for the bulls but I live and die by the PATTERNS and this one is a nice one … if you see (not labeled) the 3 wave move to the recent high that we are shorting fits ‘nicely’ into a 2nd wave and, again, we “should” be going down in/around here and pretty much, now …

why now? let’s go to the ES

I like the “concept” of square outs as it’s pretty simple … price equals time. so xyz many points down converts to days and then you use calendar days (in this case) to project a future “square out” of price and time.

in this case, the market fell 283.75 points and, moving a decimal (trust me we can do that – go read or follow Mr. Robert Edward Grant – he’ll explain it. Too long to do here … anyway that becomes 28.3 calendar days and, from tomorrow 09/15/2023 if you go back that many days you get the low at 4350 on 08/18/2023. A “square out” takes place on the E-mini tomorrow and it’s up against a BIG resistance zone – sure looks like a short too me? Doesn’t it?

S&P 500 – March 09, 2023

I try to make it clear on the chart below that I just “don’t have a clue” if the ATH on the S&P 500 is THE HIGH or A HIGH … I don’t have the data and, frankly, I’ve seen very amazing professionals say it is THE HIGH and also say A HIGH. Both, totally possible. NOBODY KNOWS except the Architect !!!

With that backdrop, you can see that this chart is a “bullish conclusion” of this correction and support shall be found and off we go.

I would hold my powder dry to go long … remember, in this case we have a 3rd wave of the C wave starting and that’s UGLY so we’ll have plenty of time to get long and, as you can see, using our measured moves you can see we have a nice thumping coming lower.

So, there we have 3232ish level w/ 4 ratio’s and a little higher a 3 drives to a bottom (orange arrows) and the percentage decline from 2020. the 2950 ish is our ABCD (black arrows) and a nice overlap of .618 and .5 from the 2009 low.

One of those two should hold … and then, guess we’ll just have to wait and see. I’m not really looking forward to that …

One of these amazing professionals will be proven correct and they both have the guts to make “the call” … my call will be 1/ trying to get short into the zone shown (I’ve been stopped out twice trying to short this market but my analysis has been spot on … yup.) and then 2/ stepping up to BUY to test the “trend is your friend till it ends” thesis.

If our levels work, then were long for a multi year run into new highs.

If they get blown thru and fail either like a hot knife thru butter or provide some support but then, after a week or so, are taken out THEN things are really in the “other” category of the good/other grade category.

Palladium and the dead cat?

last post on Palladium: https://bartscharts.com/2021/08/22/important-correlation/

think about it … went to a long term Palladium chart and was able to calculate the low of 80 ish in Jan 1991 (yeah, 30 years ago) and then figured it was close based on the sell off .. well we hit it and YAWN HO HUM I would expect it to EXPLODE off that level … certainly looks like a dead cat bounce to me … hmmm

I like the lower blue level for BIG support and then, perhaps, a chance to buy or get the bounce and exit before it really gets ugly. (hint hint – it isn’t yet)

this is ‘kind of important’ … I think… and you might want to read to the bottom

everyone is talking about low volatility .. trust me, I hear ya.

but man, do I love me some ratio’s …here’s the deal, put one security over another and guess what. If it’s going HIGHER then the numerator is stronger and if it’s going LOWER the denominator is stronger. BOOM …

so, a couple weeks ago I blogged about my ‘favorite’ ratio finding support .. the XLP/NYA.  It’s a very simple observation … XLP is staples and it’s defensive. the ‘big boys’ shift their focus on staples in time of RISK OFF. yes, i said it .. i know the market will NEVER go down and its always straight up but … well, just take a look

  1.  BLUE LINE is XIV which is an INVERSE of the VIX.  Basically when this puppy goes up volatility goes DOWN and when it goes down volatility goes UP.  NOTE – it’s a rocket ship right now, corresponding to very very low volatility.  that’s the blue line
  2. the candles are my favorite ratio .. the XLP / $NYA.  when the ratio goes UP the XLP is stronger and the thesis is this is defensive rotation by the big boys – aka Goldman Sachs (LOL) and the institutions.
  3. note, I put them on top of each other to show a pretty important correlation
    1. note the blue rectangles.
      1. those represent inflection points in the XIV and the ratio
      2. NOTE: when the XLP / $NYA bottoms, the XIV goes down (volatility increases) and when the XLP/$NYA tops, volatility – as measured by the XIV – goes down the tubes.

So, it’s official:

  • the market is NEVER going down as measured by money managers sentiment index the BULLISH SENTIMENT IS AT A 30 YEAR extreme.
  • the XIV is basically parabolic w/ the ratio having bottomed …

a simple observation can be made – the XIV is about to decline which should to lead to a volatility increase.  now to soon ….

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also … well, the Nixon Inauguration of 1/20/1973 was about 2300 weeks ago .. current S&P price, take a peak.  the market topped in/around that inauguration.

here’s what the XIV and the S&P look like together …

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the kind of look the same, don’t they ….?

just typing an observation – the market will  never go down.

make it real – B

Update on the ‘birth’ of the S&P500 and Friday’s close

11/20/2016 – again, “she’s getting ready to blow” but who knows what direction, right?  Just pointing out that we did ‘another’ square out on Friday. This one, as they usually are, was perfect. Math is below on the chart.

I plan on just going w/ a Signal Reversal Candle – if going short the LOW of the candle that made the high is taken out ON CLOSE by the daily or weekly and if going long a close above 2200 (daily or weekly depending on your timeline) should suffice.

Also, the ‘price’ could grind/gravitate up a wall of worry so to speak.  but, it’s been my experience that the ‘break down’ or ‘break up’ usually occurs at one of these square out numbers.

Do well, be good and rock on – ok?

Bart

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11/12/2016 – wanted to provide an update.  the ‘square out number’ isn’t static.  in fact, it changes every day. in this case, as we continue vortexing thru space we see that we are now, essentially, 2180 days since the ‘birth’ of the S&P 500.  Of note, the post election crazy rally was stopped dead in it’s tracks by 2180.  that’s the ‘key’ number right now … the market ‘wants’ to balance itself (remember: form, proportion, balance) so it’s no real surprise that the market went right up to that NUMBER.

so, what happens next? I honestly have no idea … but i do know that the market will move from these levels, usually, w/ a vengeance so just hang on to go up or down … a “weekly” close above one of the numbers tied to the square out would be bullish.  a big break down below some former support would be bearish.

for now, as we bounce around these harmonic numbers of price/time – just chill and let it make up its mind.

hope this helps.

Bart

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10/7/16 – just wanted to check in before the weekend.  below is a chart that “visually” depicts the SQUARE OUT where PRICE EQUALS TIME and the TREND LINE you can create.  In this case you can see the 1×1 is currently the REASON for the resistance on the S&P and then we simply did a 1/2 point/day and, why were were at it, a .382 point/day.  HINT – why not try “musical notes” *days since inception or all time low.  I bet, if we use, say .9438*days we’ll get close to the 2000 high and, while were are it, 1.05946*days we’ll be resistance on the cash S&P.  It’s early on the West Coast … I don’t feel like doing it. Try it yourself.

also, we are using a CONSTANT 1 point/day “velocity” (in this case we use PRICE and TIME to create the vector math) and what else moves in a CONSTANT ? (hint – look up in the sky) YES, you got it … so, while your at it, use a planet and move them a certain amount of degrees in a certain amount of time. How about 100 degrees/100 days – 1 to 1 and see what happens.

Have a GREAT weekend.

B

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08/27/2016  – looks like we are still “squaring out” the date of the inception of the S&P500 w/ this past weeks weekly close.

again, this is not “bearish” or “bullish” but a heads up that at “square outs” stuff happens … go w/ the flow.

rock on, ok?

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PATTERNS … work and they fail.

PATTERNS tell us of possible inflection points.

PATTERNS also tell us very important areas of interest to trade around ..

What if .. what if the PATTERN on the cash S&P has finished or is very close to finishing a sell signal?

That would mean we are at major resistance and the market “should” respect a PATTERN that has its genesis from it’s all time low 50 years ago….

IF the market DOES NOT respect this area and goes higher then we are really really really strong and I wold look to go LONG after a monthly or weekly close above these levels.

so, don’t shoot me- I got tons of crap this weekend for posting about the Utilities Pattern hitting (seems to be working so far) and I’m just mentioning that a “classic” AB=CD PATTERN is pretty much done on the S&P.

Pay Attention ….

Bart

PS – tons of cycles are hitting this week so just go w/ the flow and catch the wave that should begin soon.  No idea which way it goes, it’s just a pattern.  TRADE IT or NOT.

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PS — also, the you’ll note the SK&P was BORN on March 4, 1957 or 21708 days ago.  21708/10 = 2170.8.  Were only 10 points away from that price … if we close below 2171,2172,2173 etc. in the coming days the market has SQUARED OUT PRICE and TIME.  “Stuff” usually happens around those occurrences.  An FYI …

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