the Crude Oil Complex
charts suggest a near term low in place for crude and a bounce (a bounce only) to be expected …
Tag: Loonie
Loonie, OSX, Crude – time for another inflection? UPDATE to the UPDATE
11/5/2016 – Crude Continuous is giving us a nice “heads up” that this move is CORRECTIVE in the scheme of a much larger corrective pattern to finish a big big 4. the market corrects (most of the time) in 3 waves labeled A-B-C …in this case let’s follow the set up:
- $26 dollars was the END of 3 of 5
- $51 was the top of A
- the 51.92 slight new high (NOTE WAS IN 3 WAVES) was a ‘minor’ b wave and this move lower is ‘c’ to finish the a-b-c sequence of B.
- the ‘usual’ relationship is 1.618*a = c and note all of the ratio’s come together in/around 31.30-31.60. THAT’s a GREAT BUY for crude.
- Else – we could just be arcing out a FLAT and 38 holds it and if we have 5 waves down into 35.70-35.90 that could be it.
- either way … we are moving into a very nice BUY of crude.
Until we hit that bottom .. the LOONIE will probably not strengthen and churn/burn in around these levels or a little higher. be patient, the move is coming.
here’s the ideal pattern we are watching:
here’s crude:
here’s Loonie vs EURO and USD:
10/24/2016 – target hit on the USD vs LOONIE. Watch this one carefully. It “appears” that everyone is thinking of a big breakout but, as you can see, we had multiple targets coming into play and they were hit today.
WATCH FOR A DAILY CLOSE BACK BENEATH CHANNEL OR THE .382 as shown.
go ahead and follow this link if you want to follow some real time PATTERNS w/ technical analysis and the correlation between the 3 items in the subject line: https://bartscharts.com//?s=LOONIE
appears we are at another critical juncture:
- Crude – 2 buy patterns present.
- OSX – buy level indicated
- USD vs LOONIE – multiple patterns present for another move in LOONIE strength.
again, these are just patterns folks … but we have a very clearly defined demarcation line for the next move to begin.
stay tuned
Bart
charts below, let me know if you have any questions.
Loonie, OSX, Crude – time for another inflection? UPDATE
10/24/2016 – target hit on the USD vs LOONIE. Watch this one carefully. It “appears” that everyone is thinking of a big breakout but, as you can see, we had multiple targets coming into play and they were hit today.
WATCH FOR A DAILY CLOSE BACK BENEATH CHANNEL OR THE .382 as shown.
go ahead and follow this link if you want to follow some real time PATTERNS w/ technical analysis and the correlation between the 3 items in the subject line: https://bartscharts.com//?s=LOONIE
appears we are at another critical juncture:
- Crude – 2 buy patterns present.
- OSX – buy level indicated
- USD vs LOONIE – multiple patterns present for another move in LOONIE strength.
again, these are just patterns folks … but we have a very clearly defined demarcation line for the next move to begin.
stay tuned
Bart
charts below, let me know if you have any questions.
Loonie, OSX, Crude – time for another inflection?
go ahead and follow this link if you want to follow some real time PATTERNS w/ technical analysis and the correlation between the 3 items in the subject line: https://bartscharts.com//?s=LOONIE
appears we are at another critical juncture:
- Crude – 2 buy patterns present.
- OSX – buy level indicated
- USD vs LOONIE – multiple patterns present for another move in LOONIE strength.
again, these are just patterns folks … but we have a very clearly defined demarcation line for the next move to begin.
stay tuned
Bart
charts below, let me know if you have any questions.
Yikes … look at this set up.
It’s ONLY probability ….but look at this set up coming in the USD vs LOONIE (Canadian Dollar)
It’s a pretty wide window, but we have a TON of “stuff” coming into play …
This will have big ramifications for the Oil Complex.
What do we have?
- Measured Moves
- blue vertical line is the LARGEST move UP in the history of this currency since 1971
- dashed purple line is a measured move prior to the high at 1.618 (yes that was the high)
- dashed orange line is the “last” measured move up before the high
- .618 retracement from the all time high
- AB=CD from the all time low
- MONTHLY bearish divergence
Here’s the weekly:
What do we have?
- a well defined macro 5 wave count
- 1= 5 (red arrows)
- 3 to 4 =- 1.618-1.7632 extension into target zone
- WEEKLY bearish divergence
Here’s the daily:
What do we have?
- 5 wave daily count up into target zone
- (1) = (5) (dashed black lines)
- bearish divergence
so, all this means is IF this level fails to the upside you can expect the Crude Oil Complex to fail big and the Loonie to get smoked.
we’ve got some nice thrust into the target zone so let’s see what happens.
HOWEVER, if this level holds we might have a pretty big set up going LONG LOONIE in the coming days.
B
Gorilla’s put dynamite down for now …reload after dollar pulls back. (the dynamite is the 4 trillion/day FX market)
Summary: perhaps, it’s my background as a Naval Aviator for 11 years. I just read a post about “fighter pilots and organizations” and one of the points was the art of the debrief. so, as I post “stuff” on this blog I attempt to make it all “real time” because those snap shots allow me to “adapt and overcome” (my favorite Naval Aviation saying) and see where we are in the game plan moving forward.
Cliff notes: the first target we had for the dollar index has been taken out but we have another target, shown below, that “should” cause resistance/pull back. Folks, this thing could break wide open and explode (reference HD pattern) but I’m looking to “enter” and will wait for a pattern to form so I can MANAGE RISK. I will not “just enter” and put a random stop “there” …. no, I will wait and wait and wait and wait and wait till the pattern appears. So, here’s another one below:
Euro makes up, roughly 50%+ of the index so what is going on there ….?
how about the Swissy …?
how about the GBP vs USD?
YEN vs USD …. nice little pattern up here (note NK225 yet to hit .786 and make higher highs …)
USD vs CAD — either a flat to end at 1.0850 or lower. Key is simple .. WATCH FOR 5 WAVES TO UNFOLD DOWN and then BUY at/around levels indicated for another run …
Aussie vs USD ….
the post below is from February 13, 2014 and I believe it’s important to rehash the most recent moves in the US Dollar. Believe this move has room to go, however, we need to patiently wait for a corrective pattern to form.
this move in the dollar is real so try to get long in the most risk adverse manner possible. as you can see from the post below as the 79 level was repeatedly getting tested I did, admittedly, start to question my strong dollar scenario. that was surely one ugly level for a while but I do think the dollar will strengthen into the low 90’s target that we have been calling for.
take your time and go thru the post below …some AMAZING geometry. Also, remember, ALL of my charts are REAL TIME w/ no backward look .. they are as I saw it.
Bart
February 13, 2014
Early in my career I had the wonderful opportunity to get training from Joe Di Napoli (www.fibnodes.com) Highly recommend learning some of his techniques but, most importantly, his understanding of the market structure and the players in the game. One of his favorite sayings is we must realize that “you are entering into a world where the market is truly a caged gorilla juggling dynamite and – the dynamite is lit!”
Additionally, if you have been reading this blog you’ll realize it’s focused 1) 100% on PATTERNS and 2) it’s unique value is tying PATTERNS into the circle of life (fixed income, equities, commodities, FX). W/in the context of the circle, the gorilla is the Foreign Currency Market. According to the Bank for International Settlements – the preliminary global results from the 2013 Triennial Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange and OTC Derivatives Markets Activity show that trading in foreign exchange markets averaged $5.3 trillion per day in April 2013.
The Dollar Index is somewhat important as it represents a basket of 9 currencies – the Euro representing a vast majority of it at 58%.
For all intensive purposes – it’s been “stuck” in a 4 cent range but PATTERNS suggest we are “prepping” for a big move … so, in order to get a “feel” for where we MIGHT be let’s go back to the “beginning” at 71 ish and work thru to present…
CLIFF NOTES: the BULLISH thesis is that after the 5 waves down from 121, a 3 wave (at a minimum) corrective pattern should ensue (A-B-C) and therefore the bounce has farther to travel. Additionally, it could mark a MAJOR low and we are starting back up for 5 waves. The BULLISH consensus for the US DOLLAR is that this move UP is not complete. Please see this chart below … and, notice the EXACT move up from the PATTERN shown above at the “2 or B” level.
so where are we now? Without showing an “elaborate” count, we can see by the chart below that we smacked right into a “big picture” .618 price projection that had it’s genesis from the 71 price low.
here’s the possible bullish count from the “2 or B” low that shows a POTENTIAL 3rd wave underway. IF the count is correct, then the 79 level has to hold and is very crucial as it suggest that the 3rd wave should begin …soon and UP we go.
now, we need to drill down one more time frame – that of the 240 minute chart to see what we have going on. YES, we have a BULLISH PATTERN on the US Dollar at 80.05-80.08. In order for this entire thesis to be correct, then I believe this pattern needs to hold for the strength in the US Dollar to begin…
PATTERNS fail …they are an EDGE and over time they have been statistically proven to give us an edge. But, what if this pattern does fail? Take a close look at the following two charts … I have not shown this before, but we need to take into account the 5 wave move down from 121 and the .618 price projection — they are starting to form a huge B wave triangle. The 5 wave move into the low is a BIG BIG A and then current structure is forming a BEARISH TRIANGLE w/ the ‘c’ portion just completing (due to the exact nature of the .618 price projection) and ‘d’ and ‘e’ to come …also note the purple trend lines. One forms a head and shoulders and the other is showing the support for the US Dollar since the ‘b’ wave low …
here’s one last thing to consider …. take note of the measured move UP move from the past and what happened after it completed … a bearish omen?
CLIFF NOTES:
- w/ the deflationary forces present, the dollar SHOULD strengthen. A well formed count supports that and a PATTERN very very close also holds that thesis as correct and positive. The first is the once completing at 80.05 on a shorter time frame and then 79.53 on the daily. They need to hold – w/ the 79.53 as the major pattern if the bullish thesis is correct. Remember, w/ our rules we could go all the way down to 79 again so, for all intensive purposes the 79 level is the line in the sand. We have two symmetrical BUY patterns present …
- HOWEVER, if we lose the 79.53 level THEN it will open up some serious selling. PATTERNS will then shift to the B wave triangle thesis …
- Last, we have MAJOR patterns complete across the indices and they are “acting” like the double tops that formed in 2000 and 2007. We have the Dow Jones Transports finishing a pattern from the late 1800’s, we have a potential generational low in interest rates complete and PATTERNS suggest one more wave lower in the commodities …
It’s all coming together and one of the circle of life gorilla’s is going to drop their stick of dynamite and big old explosion is going to occur …
Loonie, the Dollar and the Oil Services Index
CLIFF NOTES: USD support for BUY opportunity shown//very important divergence present in OSX and LOONIE vs USD. for the life of the data they have moved opposite but for the past 2 years they have rolled together. while they have lead/lagged they have, essentially, been doing the opposite at tops and bottoms. When one tops the other bottoms and vice versa.
so, at times, one could look to the Oil Service Sector and see if a BUY or SELL pattern completed and then look for the opposite pattern to appear on the Loonie vs the USD. For two years that has not been the case .. they are moving together. They could roll together into infinity but something certainly doesn’t make sense …
so compare the commodity currencies (AUD/NZD/CAD) against each other ….BOOM a beautiful SELL PATTERN on the AUDCAD
CLIFF NOTES: Loonie “should” strengthen against the AUSSIE
how about CNZDCAD? not suprising — KIWI is kicking everyones butt right now … it’s at an all time high against the LOONIE w/ strength.
GBPCAD:
EURCAD:
CHFCAD:
CADJPY
Crude, the Loonie and Oil Services Index for 2014
the chart below shows the Oil Services Index $OSX (candles) w/ USDCAD (inverted/line) overlaid on top …
some observations:
- when the blue line (Loonie) is going down it is weak. when the blue line (Loonie) is going up it’s strong …
- at most inflection points, the $OSX and Loonie are synchronized nicely. however, for most of 2013 this relationship has diverged. in that, while one was going UP (Oil Services Index) one was going down (Loonie weak)
- the Loonie topped a good 6 months prior to the $OSX in 2007-2008. However, once they synced they got smashed …
- the 2009 bottom was well synchronized and since then they have move very nicely together.
below, we have added (black line) Crude Oil to the chart and, as expected, it is very synchronized w/ $OSX EXCEPT since September 2013. Note, the $OSX has held up, nicely. What is this $OSX?
The OSX tracks 15 large companies w/in the context of the Oil Services world …Changes in the Philadelphia Oil Service Sector Index tend to be associated with changes in the oil and gas markets, since greater exploration and construction of wells occurs when oil prices are high and less such activity is carried on when prices are lower. They were all affected by the Gulf of Mexico Oil spill …
so first let’s go thru the 15 components and look for big picture patterns – BUY or SELL.
so, as we can see, there are some nice SELL patterns coming in, there are a couple weak ones and where I didn’t post any charts there wasn’t a glaring pattern to be seen. Bottom line – I’m not seeing significant strength in the index but to elevate some of the stocks to hit their targets perhaps we’ll see some more strength. so, now we need to break down each individual component …
Crude Oil: http://bartscharts.com/2013/10/31/crude-oil-a-potential-roadmap/ this was my last post. I am still in the “look and feel” phase that the top at 147 was a 3 and the low in/around 35 was a 4. while the pattern completing at 110 was good, the thrust off this bottom trend line last week led me to see a triangle where we can see a,b,c,d,e – triangle complete and off to a new high ? CRUDE BULLISH
USD vs CAD: just a little bit higher (200 pips) we have some pretty major targets. while I am a DOLLAR BULL, also recognize that the Loonie is a small percentage of the overall index. LOONIE BULLISH (after a little more weakness)
Oil Services Index: the only thing “wrong” w/ this chart is that, a RULE of counting is 4 cannot go below 1. In this case it does, However, the Crude chart spikes thru but never closes below. so, I am keeping this count. Note, we smacked right into the .618 price projection area at/around 294 and are testing it again. the 306-307 level will be key.
So, our roadmap to follow is:
- Crude – breakout of triangle.
- Loonie – BUY a couple hundred pips lower
- Oil Services – break thru – with strength and conviction (read volume) levels show
one last, this is something to be patient w/ …. I would not recommend jumping all over this tomorrow but wait and see these levels get attacked … the GREAT thing about PATTERNS is we now have clear lines in the sand for where we are correct or wrong. Go back to the beginning of the post – w/ that divergence between the OSX and CAD-Crude the patterns will tell us which way this entire family (Crude, OSX, CAD) will resolve. It very well could go completely opposite but not until the pattern levels are targeted. they will either work or fail and then we’ll pounce