Tag: banks

Banks/Financials – July 27, 2023

Saw the gap up today – pretty darn impressive – so I immediately went to the XLF and “figured” that it would have gapped up w/ everyone else and blew over the .786 retracement and off to the races. IT DID NOT. Hmmmmm

Because of that, I cruised around JNK, XLF, $BKX and KRE and saw a lot of TIME convergences and SELL PATTERNS completing ….add that to the amazingly insanely bullish sentiment out there and, well, is this is easy as it looks to get long, set it and forget it?

Not until the financials and Junk Bonds show strength and really rally …until then, I’ll hold my powder w/ regard to the broad equity indices.

WATCH THESE PATTERNS for a clue to what is next.

The banks/financials ALWAYS lead us UP and, also, lead us DOWN.

for the two charts above, note the TIME component of the ABCD “basic” projection …

below is the KBW Banking Index. Same picture but spent a little bit more “time” on the “time” aspect (get it, that was supposed to be funny) and noticed that, since, basically, last year the TIME component of pullbacks have been pretty consistent (see blue arrows) and, now we have an ABCD in price and time along w/ some other “basic” static cycles.

the other thing I want you to study is the “fractal” nature of these two patterns.

pretty key level for the Banks/Financials:

Junk Bonds have tried to break out 8 times from the .618 level. If they break down below the gap zone shown, this could be a big deal. Note the green horizontal lines – no swing low has been broken since Oct 2022. So …. keep an eye on the Junk Bonds

XLF – Financials – July 01, 2023

Trust that everyone enjoys the long weekend enjoying the Birth of our Republic.

Question, when is the last time you hear a politician refer to the United States as a Constitutional Republic?

I pledge allegiance to the flag of the United States of America and to the _______ Republic or Democracy for which it stands? We know the answer …

Anyhoo … enjoy the weekend and the amazing country that we live. Be safe out there!

Financials .. the banks lead us UP and the lead us DOWN.

I really have not idea where we are as in a BULL or BEAR market. I am probably the last dude out there thinking we have another wave down coming. I think that for one reason: the Leading Diagonal pattern. The low in October 2022 was either a 1 or an A. If it was an A, then the B wave could go up and make new highs and then a smashing C wave. Else, we are going up in a wave 2 …

How can we figure out where we are going? New highs or another move lower …?

I like to use a PATTERN THAT FAILS or a PATTERN THAT WORKS and here we are .. a VERY NICE GARTLEY SELL PATTERN ON THE BANKS.

IF IT HOLDS AND WORKS AND THE BANKS START DOWN THEN … I suspect a move down will be coming.

IF IT FAILS AND THE BANKS CONTINUE TO GO UP then I think this will add fuel to the upward move.

34-35.66 on the XLF.

One last, note the measured moves …almost all of them (red arrows) are exact. Those that went a little higher were harmonic w/ 1.27 and 1.618 of the measured move.

PAY ATTENTION TO THIS LEVEL ON XLF

KRE Regional Banks ETF – May 12, 2023

Last post on KRE: https://bartscharts.com/2023/04/30/kre-regional-banks-etf-april-30-2023/

Supposedly … who knows what is true these days .. 1000’s of banks are underwater. OK … whatever.

Here’s when we look at the CHART and we ask should we BUY or SELL or DO NOTHING.

KRE sliced thru the first “potential support” and now we approach, what I think, is the KEY to the KRE. Here’s why:

  • 58.76 – if you look at the purple measured moves you will see that EVERY major swing down has been 58.76%. I’ve used the “close” in 2008 as I’m not sure if that is a good print or not .. either way, that measured move nails EVERY LOW
  • 1.618 projection lands … right at the 58.76 correction.
  • .707 (square root of 2 = 1.4142 and 1/1.4142 = .707) just a little above this level
  • Long term LOG trend line right at .. all the above
  • Note the VOLUME – is that a capitulation spike in selling volume?
  • RSI sitting at the crucial support level for the ENTIRE bullish move since 2009

Nobody in their right mind is looking to BUY the banks but, then again, I can guarantee you NOBODY was looking to buy in March 2009. Maybe there was someone? Perhaps … me?

DATE STAMPED 3 MR 2009. (March 3, 2009)

Here’s why:

So … watch the THRUST coming into this level, maybe wait for a signal reversal candle (bullish).

What I can say is IF we blast thru this level (certainly “feels” like we should) then, yeah, a lot of banks are looking at some tough times and 28 and then 21 are the next targets.

Good weekend to all – B

JPM – May 04, 2023

Pay attention to this PATTERN on JPM daily. The past 3 major tops have gapped down and the last two have created island reversals. IF (the BIG IF) we gap down today and leave and “island” then this could be very troubling for the banks and, historically, has led to a pretty big down move in JPM.

No idea if that will happen in the coming days but, again, the TIME is perfect in it’s relation to the the all time high PATTERN and the price is off just a wee bit .. essentially we have the same exact same set up as the high .. now, TIME will tell.

on a monthly level, the “blue measured move” certainly looks to be harmonic w/ JPM. the most recent high in/around mid 140’s was exactly equal to the blue measured move … again, keep an eye on JPM as it’s appears to be the big dog helping out the troubling regional and smaller banks.

If (again the BIG IF) we gap down in JPM to create an island then this big dog could be signaling a much bigger credit crunch on the way.

Banks – March 26, 2023

Last post on the banks: https://bartscharts.com/2023/03/13/banks-march-13-2023-updated/

Folks … can’t objectively say what “it” is but something is afoot at the circle K …

Whatever it is or isn’t we do have a pretty good line in the sand.

The chart above is “log scale” … take a look at:

  • Measured move PERCENTAGE CORRECTION (red arrow)
  • Percentage ABCD (blue arrows)
  • Trend line
  • Multiple ratios …

Let’s call that level our line in sand. If we take the chart and make it “normal” scaling that level is important and maybe a little lower. Watch that .786 retracement level!

Banks – March 13, 2023 (updated)

Last post on the Banks: https://bartscharts.com/2023/03/09/banking-index-march-09-2023-update/

So here’s the deal folks, I had NO IDEA that there was a banking crisis brewing when I put the GART SELL on the banks – it’s just a pattern. And, guess what, I’m trying NOT to pay attention to the ongoing machinations of the Federal Reserve, or some Twitter expert, or my buddy. I’m just looking at the CHART. In that PRICE and TIME we have the ENTIRE STORY UNFOLDING WITHOUT BIAS AND, FRANKLY, WITHOUT A CARE.

Every emotion, every thought, every decision, every hope and every dream is shown in the candle. Period. Dot. End of sentence.

The update above found a rather important support zone. Important, as my long time readers will understand, means a LOT of math comes together and its “logical” that a bounce or support is found. Cough Cough … sliced thru it without a care.

As we used to talk about flying fighters … (man I miss those days sometimes) .. the “goods” and the “others” so in the realm of that – when we slice thru that important of a support zone. I’ll use what I used back when I started this bank blog (unknowingly in the midst of one of the biggest banking failures ever) – something ain’t right at the circle K.

At this time, I AM NOT advocating to BUY the BANKS. I’m just looking for support as this things falls out of the sky.

From the last post, you can see that we have taken out the “largest measured move” correction (the 2020 COVID scare) since 2009. I’ve updated the TIME and PRICE of the largest correction on the chart during 2007-2009. The price is 45.90 and the TIME is out to early next year. (just putting the last one in perspective).

Tomorrow, 78.26 is important (1.618 extension) but it sure looks like it wants to get down to the high 60’s or the abcd around 60.

Of course we will have machinations up and down but … that’s some serious liquidation folks.

Goldman Sachs – March 11, 2023

Very important support comes in for GS a little lower in/around the 320’s and then 300’s. We lose those levels then expect GS to breathe down to a VERY NICE BUY PATTERN from 243-247.

That buy PATTERN is a classic.

ABCD, .618 retrace, 1.27 extension and then the “crossover” structure .. dare I say, it’s a near perfect set up.

Which, like I always mention … can and does fail so that is the line in the sand for GS and, potentially, the entire banking system. (?)

Banking Index – March 09, 2023 (UPDATE)

Last post on the Banking Index: https://bartscharts.com/2023/01/31/banking-index-january-31-2023/

Here is the Banking Index PATTERN that we needed to watch and monitor. Folks, banks are everything. PERIOD. They lead us UP and they lead us DOWN. Something isn’t right at the circle K.

All things being equal, the wave that started today needs to finish 5 waves so I would step aside and let the banks pave the way … the BIG support is 83-86. Why? The red arrow is the largest price correction in the banking index since 2009. What happens at that level will be very key.

Next levels are the measured move down around 56-60 and the BIG ONE at 45-46.

Get your tinfoil hat peeps .. buckle up.

Banking Index – January 31, 2023

I’ve blogged this before and I’ll blog this again – banks lead us UP and they lead us DOWN.

Below you can see a “pretty clear” 5 wave count UP in the Banking Index from the 2009 lows. We do have a slight overlap of Wave 4 and Wave 1 but I’m going to go for it as it’s not on “close” and the count fits/works.

What we have here is an “almost” perfect GARTLEY SELL PATTERN on the banks.

I saw @RyanDetrik tweet about the January effect today and I do trust and admirer his work … probability is saying that we have a STRONG year this year. I’m not there, yet.

I’m 100% prepared to throw in the count for a “next move is bearish” and just hit ctrl-alt-del and erase and take a look at it with fresh eyes.

That being said .. .the DSI on Gold is SPIKED HIGH for the bulls, we have an amazing BUY pattern on the VIX, sell PATTERNS on the Banks and JNK bonds inbound and the Euro/Dollar are both finishing /finished up 5 moves. Pullback or a resumption of the move down. I don’t know but I think this move u since October is on borrowed time …

Note – where have the banks been. W/ all this bullish talk they haven’t even made a .382 retracement, yet. Hmmmmm …

WATCH THIS LEVEL ON THE BANKS TOMORROW. A daily close ABOVE 115 and this market could be off to the races. Only TIME will tell …

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