Dollar and Stocks – March 22, 2023

Today, monitor and watch – CLOSELY the BUY PATTERN on the US Dollar Index. That level is in/around 102.50-102.70. As you can see below, I have INVERTED the NYSE Index to give a flavor for the pivots in the equities and how they correspond to the US Dollar.

From the perspective of the S&P 500, let’s see what happens at the opening … if we take out the 3956 handle then moves to the upper two targets shown below are realistic …

Watch the dollar pattern today.

S&P 500 Index – March 15, 2023

Perspective … we made a higher low today. Let’ that sink in …

Now, my stance is to remain bearish and I do believe we are in the very early stages of a smashing wave 3 and, add fuel to the fire, it’s a “3rd of a 3rd” wave down. Wonderful …

Near term, the market DID NOT go up to our target up around 3956 but it did smack right into the trendline giving us the polarity principle.

Two scenarios:

  • Bounce not complete and we gap up and above or move strongly into and thru the gap shown and finish the a-b-c sequence
  • We did a “minor” wave 1 down and finished a “minor” wave 2 and down we go … wouldn’t be surprised to see if it closes the gap tomorrow on the open and then down …

S&P 500 E-mini – March 13, 2023

The support/rally that was found today by the market was “expected” as we could see 5 waves down.

Now the BIG question is was the high today the end of the wave 2 or do we rally once more. I would like to see another rally so we can PROJECT the upcoming POTENTIAL inflection point.

Note, the 2 arrows show IMPORTANT support of the emini if the pattern fails.

S&P 500 – March 12,2023

Expect a rally the next couple days …perhaps a slight gap down but eventually support and then a rally should occur. Futures tonight are already providing that “commentary” so I’d expect a larger than “normal” rally due to the world is coming unglued (it is) but you know what I’m saying … “everyone” expected a blood bath tonight when the futures opened.

5 waves down complete … expect a rally into the circled area “to start” .. why “to start” – well – I would expect a large rally tomorrow if everyone has been told everything is OK and that circled area is the area of the 4th wave of a lesser degree so that’s an initial target.

But, as I typed below on the chart – the entire rally from (2) or 4080’s can be retraced and this count remains valid.

So, I’m guilty as charged in thinking this is an “easy” trade I’m shorting the market because it’s all going to come unglued !!!! TAKE THAT and you wake up and the entire thing has slammed against you. Been there done that and ..don’t everyone want to be there again.

Taking the banks and all the real stuff that are important away … Folks looks like we just completed wave 1 down of the “c’ Wave or Wave III (not sure one it is yet) and therefore a rather large rally could happen. WE WANT TO BE SHORT AT THE END OF THIS RALLY!

Hope the rally comes and it’s real and my count is completely wrong … hope is a strategy, you know?

Palladium and the dead cat?

last post on Palladium:

think about it … went to a long term Palladium chart and was able to calculate the low of 80 ish in Jan 1991 (yeah, 30 years ago) and then figured it was close based on the sell off .. well we hit it and YAWN HO HUM I would expect it to EXPLODE off that level … certainly looks like a dead cat bounce to me … hmmm

I like the lower blue level for BIG support and then, perhaps, a chance to buy or get the bounce and exit before it really gets ugly. (hint hint – it isn’t yet)

Hot knife thru butter …

when I came up w/ the support levels last night I certainly didn’t think we would come down into those levels today. not the least bit BUT we did .. ugh. I watched the levels in between calls as the gap came down into our targeted support zone – actually held for a bit and then pierced the level and closed at the low of the days …

so, we’ll get out our pencil, erase, and come up w/ another level … ultimately, this drill is to define/find key support – look for confirmation that a low is in place and then WAIT for a SELL PATTERN to appear to try and get a short on .. try being the operative word.

below you’ll see the key UPTREND trend line from the all time low back in 1974 and in log scale. in fast moving markets log scale trend lines become key as they really help one capture the emotion and velocity of the moves. note we have not broken a key log trend line so the trend is still up …yes I know that is crazy, but that’s the case, for now. certainly looks as we will test that line in the coming days …

1/note RSI below on a monthly basis – we have broken support that defined support levels for the entire move up from 2009. 2/ we should target the dashed blue or orange RSI support – watch those levels. 3/ note the uptrend line labeled “key trend line” 4/ taking the “biggest” corrections ever we can see that they range from 32,38,59 percent for 87,2000-2002, 2007-2009. we are approaching the 30% decline level and right in/around this area is the .382 retracement from the all time low back in 1974. WE SHOULD FIND SUPPORT IN AROUND HERE ….

note – when using an all time low or high to derive a confluence zone its good to go back in time and use that same point and see if it was important in the past .. it was and therefore, the all time low in 1974 ‘should’ be the node to offer support .. .for now. that’s the second chart.

here’s the chart showing the key node and it’s importance in deriving support and/or BUY levels.

03/08/2020 Asian Open Update

the USD vs YEN cross rate is a BIG FX pair to monitor for equity strength and weakness. we had a nice ‘nominal’ 1100 point gap down to the open the DOW futures in Asia and a 20 percent drop in crude. rocking and rolling folks …

as the night progresses, just watch 102.06-103.20 on the USD vs JPY and, a little lower 100.62. We’ve already sliced thru 2 years of support – easily – but do look for these levels to offer a modicum of support over the coming hours/day (s?)

watch the USD vs JPY YEN chart below and these key levels for support of the US equities

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