Well, we have a BUY PATTERN on JNK right around the “key” trend line … that’s been holding the Junk Bonds up for all of 2023 and the last quarter or so of 2022. It’s important .. doing “basic” trend line construction we can see the “minor” purple line will give us a heads up but I think Mr Red Trend line is the key … we lose that and I find it hard to get this market going higher for a while…but you never know, right?
Spent some time on JNK today/tonight and tried some square outs in both calendar days and planets and blah blah blah. Even pulled out the Pythagorean ABC^2. To no avail .. then, I thought I’m “curve fitting it” so I just started to do some geometry.
I’ve been sketching before I meditate based on Robert Edward Grants recommendation .. it’s pretty trippy. As you square the circle and then step back and throw some flower of life on top and then, what the heck, throw Metatrons Cube into the mix and … well … you start to see creation in an amazingly beautiful way. The perfect – form, balance and proportion.
So, using the dark blue arrow and the orange arrow near the bottom – that’s it – we were able to create a time cycle … that was from the Vesica Pisces. Then, we were able to create the “past trend channel.” I didn’t work from left to right .. I went from the Orange Radius, the Orange Circle and then created the first triangle that is too the far right. And, that’s when the trend lines/boxes were created working back up right to left. And, I’ll be darn … it WAS THE TREND CHANNEL and just follow the market in the trendlines that were created from simple squares … amazing.
Why is this important?
As I’ve blogged before – we can make a comparison to JNK BONDS GOING UP UP UP to “risk on” and JNK BONDS GOING DOWN TO “risk off” and the risk is minimized by the institutions. I monitor them … they are very important.
So, here’s the daily (artistry removed 🙂 )
it’s showing a pretty important set of trend lines …for sure. but, as I state on the chart, which way is it going to blow?
now, interestingly, take a peak of JNK w/ the S&P 500 overlaid on top of it:
not immediately obvious .. but if you look at times when junk bonds were toppingyou would see some resistance or bumps and the market could continue higher, the junk bonds would kind of stall and shuck and jive BUT when they sold off, the market was soon thereafter.
So … what I don’t like is that the JNK bonds have not rallied like the others times and, in fact, “most” of the time, when they rallied there was a big monthly “spike” or “wick” from a candlestick perspective. Seriously, I think this is an important point. If we take at look at the first low on the chart to the far left you will see multiple monthly candles leaving a wick/spike before pretty strong rallies .. now just work left to right as we see the monthly wicks that resulted in a rally for the Junk Bonds .. allowing the market to relentlessly drive higher. But, this time … just saying .. where is the wick? where is the rally? if we take a look at how ALL the rallies started you will see the wick present and the subsequent rally. Not this time.
Certainly looks like JNK BONDS should get going pretty quickly to keep the party rolling. Else, we break that daily neckline I think it’s going to hard pressed to be long equities.
So, just keep watching that daily trendline convergence on JNK bond if you want an “outside the squawk box” objective look at the health of the market.
PS – Technical Analysis 101. This chart has lower highs and until this last “bounce” it had lower lows since 2010.
PUNCH LINE: does the S&P 500 have enough gas in its tank to explode higher and bring it’s pal, the JNK BONDS, with em’? Or, do they both look like it’s been a great run and they are just going to roll over and go blehhhhhh ….
The credit markets are a very important measure to monitor/watch w/ regard to equity volatility and strength. A correlation exists where deterioration w/in the Junk Bond market usually leads to or portends to weakness in the equity market and/or an increase in volatility.
We have a VERY important pattern appearing on the hourly JNK BOND ETF chart below … it’s a “near perfect” Gartley Sell Pattern. The two red arrows are showing the expected levels for resistance and, quite possibly, the beginning of the next leg down in JNK BONDS. If we get a strong close above the 93.71 level then I would consider this PATTERN FAILED. Above the old high at 94.84 and I suspect a strong and continued rally in equities.
This is one of those big flashing lights to monitor over the coming week …