Tag: XLF

Banks – March 13, 2023 (updated)

Last post on the Banks: https://bartscharts.com/2023/03/09/banking-index-march-09-2023-update/

So here’s the deal folks, I had NO IDEA that there was a banking crisis brewing when I put the GART SELL on the banks – it’s just a pattern. And, guess what, I’m trying NOT to pay attention to the ongoing machinations of the Federal Reserve, or some Twitter expert, or my buddy. I’m just looking at the CHART. In that PRICE and TIME we have the ENTIRE STORY UNFOLDING WITHOUT BIAS AND, FRANKLY, WITHOUT A CARE.

Every emotion, every thought, every decision, every hope and every dream is shown in the candle. Period. Dot. End of sentence.

The update above found a rather important support zone. Important, as my long time readers will understand, means a LOT of math comes together and its “logical” that a bounce or support is found. Cough Cough … sliced thru it without a care.

As we used to talk about flying fighters … (man I miss those days sometimes) .. the “goods” and the “others” so in the realm of that – when we slice thru that important of a support zone. I’ll use what I used back when I started this bank blog (unknowingly in the midst of one of the biggest banking failures ever) – something ain’t right at the circle K.

At this time, I AM NOT advocating to BUY the BANKS. I’m just looking for support as this things falls out of the sky.

From the last post, you can see that we have taken out the “largest measured move” correction (the 2020 COVID scare) since 2009. I’ve updated the TIME and PRICE of the largest correction on the chart during 2007-2009. The price is 45.90 and the TIME is out to early next year. (just putting the last one in perspective).

Tomorrow, 78.26 is important (1.618 extension) but it sure looks like it wants to get down to the high 60’s or the abcd around 60.

Of course we will have machinations up and down but … that’s some serious liquidation folks.

Goldman Sachs – March 11, 2023

Very important support comes in for GS a little lower in/around the 320’s and then 300’s. We lose those levels then expect GS to breathe down to a VERY NICE BUY PATTERN from 243-247.

That buy PATTERN is a classic.

ABCD, .618 retrace, 1.27 extension and then the “crossover” structure .. dare I say, it’s a near perfect set up.

Which, like I always mention … can and does fail so that is the line in the sand for GS and, potentially, the entire banking system. (?)

Banking Index – March 09, 2023 (UPDATE)

Last post on the Banking Index: https://bartscharts.com/2023/01/31/banking-index-january-31-2023/

Here is the Banking Index PATTERN that we needed to watch and monitor. Folks, banks are everything. PERIOD. They lead us UP and they lead us DOWN. Something isn’t right at the circle K.

All things being equal, the wave that started today needs to finish 5 waves so I would step aside and let the banks pave the way … the BIG support is 83-86. Why? The red arrow is the largest price correction in the banking index since 2009. What happens at that level will be very key.

Next levels are the measured move down around 56-60 and the BIG ONE at 45-46.

Get your tinfoil hat peeps .. buckle up.

Banking Index – January 31, 2023

I’ve blogged this before and I’ll blog this again – banks lead us UP and they lead us DOWN.

Below you can see a “pretty clear” 5 wave count UP in the Banking Index from the 2009 lows. We do have a slight overlap of Wave 4 and Wave 1 but I’m going to go for it as it’s not on “close” and the count fits/works.

What we have here is an “almost” perfect GARTLEY SELL PATTERN on the banks.

I saw @RyanDetrik tweet about the January effect today and I do trust and admirer his work … probability is saying that we have a STRONG year this year. I’m not there, yet.

I’m 100% prepared to throw in the count for a “next move is bearish” and just hit ctrl-alt-del and erase and take a look at it with fresh eyes.

That being said .. .the DSI on Gold is SPIKED HIGH for the bulls, we have an amazing BUY pattern on the VIX, sell PATTERNS on the Banks and JNK bonds inbound and the Euro/Dollar are both finishing /finished up 5 moves. Pullback or a resumption of the move down. I don’t know but I think this move u since October is on borrowed time …

Note – where have the banks been. W/ all this bullish talk they haven’t even made a .382 retracement, yet. Hmmmmm …

WATCH THIS LEVEL ON THE BANKS TOMORROW. A daily close ABOVE 115 and this market could be off to the races. Only TIME will tell …

Goldman Sachs

we had a VERY nice pattern coming in around the 370’s and it’s basically failed.

as you can see the high was a 1.27*ab=cd but w/ this strength thru the lower pattern that failed, would WAIT for a daily close below 372 before putting any type of short out there …

w/ the strength in the financials and the Banking Index (shown below) I would be hard pressed to put a short on w/ regard to the banks until the target above is hit … we hit that target, could be game on.

Financials – it’s pretty much all that matters – right now

they lead us UP and they lead us DOWN. the banks, financials … it’s that simple.

that being said, the move since March 2020 has been strong and straight up .. kaboom that’s a face ripper higher and, frankly, caught me off guard. why?

well … the ZIRP, the multiple trillions (yes I just typed MULTIPLE trillions) of sovereign debt is beyond anything that we could EVER imagine. folks we are in unchartered territory. again, we are in the vapor ware of experiential historical construct and, from where I sit, it’s UGLY.

but, the band plays on … right?

so, I present, more than likely the most important chart out there .. the banking index.

I had the opportunity and that is what it is .. an an opportunity to sit down w/ JC yesterday and chat … it was blast. but what came to me is while I have all these followers – thank you!- nobody really knows what I’m showing so I’m going to break it down …

BLUE VERTICAL ARROWS – they are measured moves .. every move UP has ended at their conclusion .. so, note around the 155 level – make it simple

DASHED BLACK LINES – just showing you where we take the key nodes and EXTEND from those points … NOTE that 149-155 we have some confluence.

ELLIOTT WAVE – love it, when it works … seriously. if your going to go down that rabbit hole, just learn the corrections … anyway, a VALID (trust me, doesn’t mean it’s a correct count LOL) count shows us finishing 5 waves in around the level sighted before. NOTE – the orange lines is the current wave that we are counting and 1=5 in our target zone.

so, 149-555 BIG DEAL for the financials ….

now .. go on … rock on, capture your stoke folks …

B

Banks – HUGE support

Banks are very important to the overall health of the market … key support approaching! monitor closely …

blogged about the banks a couple weeks ago here: https://bartscharts.com/2020/09/09/banks-where-are-they/ since then, they have continued to lose strength and now the Banking Index has a very important BUY pattern which should hold and the ratio of the Banks/NYSE Index has key support a little bit lower.

banks lead us up and lead us down so these areas below are KEY to strength of the overall market. bounce here/little lower on the ratio and we should stabilize. if we cut thru these levels w/out a whimper and continue lower then i would expect continued pressure down the line …

Banks – where are they?

there is an old adage – the banks lead you up and lead you down. the market has blasted to old all time highs or thru them and the banks…? well, they rallied a little but have not shown the strength of the overall market, especially technology.

let’s keep a close eye on them over the coming days and weeks … important.

here’s the support charts that I posted back in the past to show the patterns at work – it has NOTHING to do w/ me. I just pull out the crayons and try to find the patterns. keep it simple.

this chart was finding support at the “first” level after a pretty liquidating sell off from 112. pay attention … a LOT of math and patterns coming together. One of the key aspects of the chart below (if you have read this far) is watching for former FAILED PATTERNS.

as you can see, that level worked and the banks rallied … I apologize for not having the SELL pattern but I never posted it. Do you see it? After not making it above the 117 level it sold off big time … and, using some math and patterns we found a support zone ….

in the chart below I show you the SELL PATTERN on the banks. YES, this is after the fact and I DID NOT post this at the time but wanted to show 1/the harmony of this index and 2/ the pattern for illustrative purposes. the other reason for posting this is to demonstrate the bank rally off the March 2020 lows has been feeble …

and as we can see, the banking index / NYSE Index is tepid, at best. really don’t think the banks are too healthy right now …

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