IWM – February 3, 2023
Tag: Russell 2000
IWM … read this post to get your mind blown … if you want
last post on IWM: https://bartscharts.com/2021/08/30/iwm-and-another-upcoming-chat-w-jc/
holy smokes .. the underlying BULL market that we have right now is pretty amazing …
I went on to chat w/ JC of @allstarcharts.com a couple months ago and we talked a LOT about IWM. we went over the MATH of why it stopped where it did and, folks, the math on multiple time frames and multiple techniques was PERFECT. he still hasn’t “published” our podcast – maybe because he knew it was going to break out? 🙂 who knows …he’s a lot smarter than I am but still a GREAT dude. follow him peeps!
and guess what ..IWM pattern, it wasn’t WRONG but it certainly wasn’tRIGHT.
BOOM- we broke out today so guess what? I have to get my eraser out and start over and, unfortunately, that’s happened many many times. 🙂 why should I be surprised? well, keep reading.
the market went up to our target area and hit in/around 233. as we describe above, in an irrationally exuberant bull market, WAIT for the SRC and the signal reversal candle was finally hit the week of my birthday (note a fun fact – the HIGH on crude oil hit on my birthday 7/11 – shown below- synchronicity?)
I show the Crude because of my birthday but also because of the PROBABILITY of what can and can’t happen when a TON of math comes together.
folks, MORE math came together (see the last post linked at the top) on IWM .. so only being human I EXPECTED it to dump and the rest of the market to, well, at least follow along … ? unreasonable?
well there it sat … and sat … and then an SRC
Here is the SRC for IWM:
more than likely, a short would have been initiated and we would have been stopped out ….
end of story – right? well from a P+L perspective, yes. folks that is ALL that matters.
from a form and harmony and balance perspective this IWM continues to amaze me.
please see the chart below:
if you have been reading the blog you know we had been targeting this price zone for a while and when it hit you know I (most of the time) say WAIT for a signal reversal candle because it’s probability – right? of course … so sometimes the pattern will act as support or resistance (this is what IWM did for 233 days but ultimately it failed.) and sometimes it will work and inflect to your favor or it EXPLODES continuing the trend … it’s all probability. but I think I’ve shown that “stuff” happens around the patterns – fair enough?
what’s key for me, even though we are dealing w/ probability, is I KNEW there is still a “beat” or “rhythm” to it … that’s why the patterns help you manage risk, right?
so, at the end of the day today, I saw that the market was up again and I thought … “I bet (no kidding, I KNEW this was the case in my gut) we made the PRICE high the same many days (TIME) ago … “
there you have it above … 233 calendar days ago the price HIGH was hit and is it any coincidence that we BROKE OUT when PRICE equals TIME? NO – that is how it works. our job is to figure out what the key master has in store for us regarding the harmony and balance of what we are dealing with … it’s all based on math and music but it’s also a multi dimensional chess game …
why would I type that last sentence?
well, 233 is a Fibonacci number as shown on the chart above … the Architect, what a sense of humor she has ….
Bart
IWM topping head and shoulders forming?
IWM is that REALLY it …?
last post on IWM: https://bartscharts.com/2021/02/21/iwm-is-that-it/
I also blogged about KEY SUPPORT in/around 224-225. that was the FIRST PATTERN BUY in this long term uptrend. is that uptrend still alive?
if you go back to the last post mentioned above, you can see a very clear 5 wave move that, and this is important, BREAKS NO RULES of the Elliott Wave Theory. It’s a valid count …
now, is the count correct? we don’t know ….but we can find out rather soon as we have an almost perfect SELL PATTERN in/around the 225-227 level.
now for the IF and THEN
IF the top around 235 is a valid end to a 5th wave THEN this SELL PATTERN shown below SHOULD work.
a valid target will be 198-200 or below ….
have a GREAT EASTER to everyone if this is what you celebrate .. what an amazing time of the year and a time to be alive.
salute – Bart
IWM – is that it?
adding to this last post about IWM: https://bartscharts.com/2019/03/02/iwm/
I’m teaching my son about “advanced” Pattern Recognition … it’s fun and the big thing we keep hammering into each other is trade what you SEE not what you think/believe. (thanks Larry P)
well, here is IWM.
what do I see:
- a VALID wave count that breaks no rules. I feel comfortable in saying that we are in a 5th wave …
- AB=CD or Wave 3 = Wave 5 at 234.
- 1.732 extension (daily)
- fundamental frequency from the first impulse low of October 2002 – July 2007
- Square of 9 targets
- geometrical projection technique
Folks, a LOT of thrust into this level, so .. playing it safe here and WAITING for a signal reversal candle weekly close below 206.
A LOT OF MATH HAS BEEN HIT ON IWM …
it’s only probability and only a pattern … if it holds, ramifications are BIG.
IWM – update
IWM – another leg down to complete corrective sequence?
12/1 – quick update to show that the “expect resistance” level has been hit so do just that .. expect some resistance. the form and proportion certainly don’t appear to mean this is the end of a move … I could be wrong, but the thrust and strength certainly suggest higher but not after, perhaps a pause/pullback here in this expected resistance area.
11/22 – nice run from the target area depicted below down in/around 100. You see, we were able to use PATTERNS and some math to figure out a likely “stopping point” or “resistance” for IWM around 173 … we then used a GUIDELINE to pick a nice area where it “could” go. in this case, it did … that solidified a pretty good or solid count of 1,2,3,4 as NO rules were broken and the guideline for the 4th wave worked (this time) so, safe to say, we have a probability that we are in a 5th wave for IWM. as stated on the chart, there isn’t really any form, balance or proportion to make a “good” (in my case that would be very AVERAGE) count …. so, using some “guidelines” I was able to find 181 by using wave relationships and proportionality … in this case 181 represents .618 wave 3 and 1.618 wave 1 projected from the wave 4 low of 95. “expect” some resistance in/around here. but, I just don’t think that it’s it for more upside … stay tuned.
the last time I blogged by IWM was here: https://bartscharts.com/2018/05/17/iwm-caveat-emptor-and-check-out-where-price-hovered-today-in-my-p-s-below-cool/
we correctly ID a target zone of resistance and am now looking for another wave down sequence that will, if this count is correct, lead to a great BUY opportunity. I’ve outlined my count in the chart below …
IWM — checkmate (but crank up Dark Side of the Moon and a glass of wine before reading)
IWM …
so, in October of 2013 (yes, more than a year ago) I was beating the drum of a very important top forthcoming top/target zone in the IWM. Â (An ETF of the Russel 2000.) See below the double line area …
The zone depicted from that post in October  2013 is below and , yes, the IWM respected the zone and corrected roughly 12-15%.  A “decent” correction so to speak.
so, as of today, as the DOW and S&P recorded new intraday highs, the Russell (and, OBTW, Â the big daddy $NYA) are stuck at the.786 retracement.
Folks, clear and simple … we are at checkmate w/ regard to the stocks. Â I’m biased that “the band plays on” and we climb the deflationary ladder of chaos for, perhaps, another year OR we stop in/around here (next week perhaps) and start down w/ a really good and scary shakedown.
but before we try to “guess” what is going to happen next … go put some Pink Floyd on Google Play, pour a glass of wine and just walk w/ me down the musical component of the stock market … don’t try to figure out the WHY or the WHAT and,well, completely throw this away as bullshit if you want.
I don’t care … but the bottom line is the ENTIRE THING HAS BEEN FUCKING PERFECT in regards to the world of music. Bada Bing Bong Boom ….
SQUARE ROOTS RUN EVERYTHING:
.786 … just a number
but one of the most important retracement numbers out there. Â and, contrary to what people say , IT IS NOT A FIBONACCI NUMBER! Â
it does derive from 1.618 (which is the golden mean) but here’s the deal … it’s a musical derivation of the Fibonacci based golden mean…why you might ask?
1.618 …
square root = 1.27
1/1.27 = .786.
the frequency of a string is INVERSELY PROPORTIONAL to the SQUARE ROOT OF its weight (length)
additionally, the frequency is DIRECTLY PROPORTIONAL to the SQUARE ROOT of its tension ….
SQUARE ROOTS AND THEIR INVERSES FOLKS !!!!!
so as we look at the TOP in IWM … 121 (hello a NATURAL SQUARE 11*11 = 121) we can see WHY the puppy stopped in/around 104. TILT — HUGH?
121 square root = 11.
11-.786 = 10.214
10.214^2 = 104.32 (PLEASE LOOK AT THE CHART BELOW AND NOTICE THE CLOSES AND OPENS DENOTED BY THE LIGHT BLUE LINE) – THAT LINE IS DRAWN AT 104.
OK Bart … that’s kind of cool. Â But, for one moment don’t even tell me that it was a 104 calendar day correction from the high at 121….!
- all time high 07/01/2014
- add 104 calendar days: 10/13/2014 – please see the chart.
- folks, that was the EXACT close and the OFF THE IWM went …
so, what the heck does all this mean … as my wife likes to tell me — give me the CLIFF NOTES.
1. this ZONE depicted is a MAJOR pattern from the all time low.
2. Â the .786 retracement from the 121 high has held the market from going higher
- if we lose this thing to the upside THEN it could cook off in a sling shot parabolic move ..
3. the MATH shown is simply to show that, well, it was PERFECT in PRICE and TIME and therefore the subsequent move up was 1) expected and 2) makes sense.
4. Â IF LONG – in the context of this amazing run in the Russell 2000 – I would just simply hold it and roll w/ it .. HOWEVER if we break that 104 level then cut it and bail.
5. If SHORT – then watch for a WEEKLY (tomorrow) close above the .786 and if you get a graceful exit on Sunday Night/Monday morning get ready to cut it and get long for a good year or so as this puppy launches.
Last thing … I HAVE NO IDEA WHICH SCENARIO WILL PLAY OUT ….
email me if you have any questions …
I just want to make sure you, my bad ass readers, have a clue as what I’m trying to convey.
At a minimum, you can tell your significant other to leave you alone, put some Pink Floyd on and enjoy a glass of wine w/ some square root stuff ….
B
measured moves are powerful tools and on long term charts they are very useful for forecasting price moves. Â take a look at the chart below … the BLUE arrows are the lengths of the bull moves in the IWM. Â appears the current move will converge nicely in/around 113-114. Â Then, since we are all working w/ probabilities, what do you think the probability is that we find stiff/major/topping (?) resistance in around that area…? if that doesn’t stop it then watch 120-121 … either way we have the POTENTIAL for, at a minimum a 6th month correction?
last thing is some very easy time study … note the TIME it took for the first blue arrow to go up…now look at the TIME of this move that began at 34.
we have a convergence of PRICE and TIME in and around here … just saying.
IWM it’s almost been a year since our warning
9/22/2014 – the IWM has been getting a lot of news lately and well it should. Â just wanted to point out the below charts that warned of 113-120 being very stiff resistance if not a TOP back in November of last year … sure looks like distribution but, knowing nothing of the fundamentals I will reiterate over and over and over and over (get the picture) on my blog that’s it’s simply a PATTERN. Â Sometimes they work, sometimes they don’t. Â Manage the risk ….
note the same fractal present as 2007 .. still believe the 108 handle will be key to supporting either the bulls or the bears …
11/26/2013: the “zone” of 113-120 should be very strong if not the “top” for a while … if this pattern fails, I’m going into gardening.
IWM what a perfect set-up
the “zone” of 113-120 should be very strong if not the “top” for a while … if this pattern fails, I’m going into gardening.
Russell 2000 IWM and it’s repeating moves – CAVEAT EMPTOR
measured moves are powerful tools and on long term charts they are very useful for forecasting price moves. Â take a look at the chart below … the BLUE arrows are the lengths of the bull moves in the IWM. Â appears the current move will converge nicely in/around 113-114. Â Then, since we are all working w/ probabilities, what do you think the probability is that we find stiff/major/topping (?) resistance in around that area…? if that doesn’t stop it then watch 120-121 … either way we have the POTENTIAL for, at a minimum a 6th month correction?
last thing is some very easy time study … note the TIME it took for the first blue arrow to go up…now look at the TIME of this move that began at 34.
we have a convergence of PRICE and TIME in and around here … just saying.