Banks/Financials – July 27, 2023

Saw the gap up today – pretty darn impressive – so I immediately went to the XLF and “figured” that it would have gapped up w/ everyone else and blew over the .786 retracement and off to the races. IT DID NOT. Hmmmmm

Because of that, I cruised around JNK, XLF, $BKX and KRE and saw a lot of TIME convergences and SELL PATTERNS completing ….add that to the amazingly insanely bullish sentiment out there and, well, is this is easy as it looks to get long, set it and forget it?

Not until the financials and Junk Bonds show strength and really rally …until then, I’ll hold my powder w/ regard to the broad equity indices.

WATCH THESE PATTERNS for a clue to what is next.

The banks/financials ALWAYS lead us UP and, also, lead us DOWN.

for the two charts above, note the TIME component of the ABCD “basic” projection …

below is the KBW Banking Index. Same picture but spent a little bit more “time” on the “time” aspect (get it, that was supposed to be funny) and noticed that, since, basically, last year the TIME component of pullbacks have been pretty consistent (see blue arrows) and, now we have an ABCD in price and time along w/ some other “basic” static cycles.

the other thing I want you to study is the “fractal” nature of these two patterns.

pretty key level for the Banks/Financials:

Junk Bonds have tried to break out 8 times from the .618 level. If they break down below the gap zone shown, this could be a big deal. Note the green horizontal lines – no swing low has been broken since Oct 2022. So …. keep an eye on the Junk Bonds

XLF – July 13, 2023 !

Well folks, we are at a pretty big fork in the road. The SELL PATTERN on the SPX is “close” and pretty much hit and then the XLF went up and tagged the lower end of the sell zone … gapped up and then closed at the lower end. One can see a couple small laborious machinations up and down before the SPX target is hit so we can sneak into the upper half of the sell zone before really calling the PATTERN complete and the selling to begin – or not.

If this pattern fails, it might to be early to back up the truck, but the melt up will certainly continue …

But, don’t get too excited for that to happen. SOME STIFF RESISTANCE/SELL PATTERNS PRESENT in XLF aka FINANCIALS.

XLF – Financials – July 01, 2023

Trust that everyone enjoys the long weekend enjoying the Birth of our Republic.

Question, when is the last time you hear a politician refer to the United States as a Constitutional Republic?

I pledge allegiance to the flag of the United States of America and to the _______ Republic or Democracy for which it stands? We know the answer …

Anyhoo … enjoy the weekend and the amazing country that we live. Be safe out there!

Financials .. the banks lead us UP and the lead us DOWN.

I really have not idea where we are as in a BULL or BEAR market. I am probably the last dude out there thinking we have another wave down coming. I think that for one reason: the Leading Diagonal pattern. The low in October 2022 was either a 1 or an A. If it was an A, then the B wave could go up and make new highs and then a smashing C wave. Else, we are going up in a wave 2 …

How can we figure out where we are going? New highs or another move lower …?


IF IT HOLDS AND WORKS AND THE BANKS START DOWN THEN … I suspect a move down will be coming.

IF IT FAILS AND THE BANKS CONTINUE TO GO UP then I think this will add fuel to the upward move.

34-35.66 on the XLF.

One last, note the measured moves …almost all of them (red arrows) are exact. Those that went a little higher were harmonic w/ 1.27 and 1.618 of the measured move.


JPM – May 21, 2023

This is a long term monthly count from JPM that stretches back 50+ years.

Folks, certainly doesn’t “feel” like a 5 wave move in JPM is complete but the count doesn’t break any rules so … 5 waves complete?

Here’s the daily chart below – calling attention to the island reversals and the island reversals that could be at play – right now. Here’s the last post on it:

Well the count will either be correct or it won’t (yea I know, dugh) but .. here’s the 60 minute GART SELL PATTERN that hit so IF this pattern works THEN JPM should start back down which will put pressure on all the banks. IF this PATTERN FAILS then expect the daily .618 and .786 above to get attacked and, potentially send JPM off to new highs.

But, for now, pay attention the SELL PATTERN present on JPM:

Banking Index – April 24, 2023

Last post on the Banking Index:

Well, guess you can say “here we go” or “lets get it on” (cue UFC John McCarthy) …

Banking index has complete the ABCD from the low and the “scary” times … it’s all good, correct? Well, guess we will just have to wait and see.

Next stop: 66-68 or lower. Guess we’ll just have to wait and see, right?

Longer term targets below …

note, the next chart is LOG SCALE

Banks – March 13, 2023 (updated)

Last post on the Banks:

So here’s the deal folks, I had NO IDEA that there was a banking crisis brewing when I put the GART SELL on the banks – it’s just a pattern. And, guess what, I’m trying NOT to pay attention to the ongoing machinations of the Federal Reserve, or some Twitter expert, or my buddy. I’m just looking at the CHART. In that PRICE and TIME we have the ENTIRE STORY UNFOLDING WITHOUT BIAS AND, FRANKLY, WITHOUT A CARE.

Every emotion, every thought, every decision, every hope and every dream is shown in the candle. Period. Dot. End of sentence.

The update above found a rather important support zone. Important, as my long time readers will understand, means a LOT of math comes together and its “logical” that a bounce or support is found. Cough Cough … sliced thru it without a care.

As we used to talk about flying fighters … (man I miss those days sometimes) .. the “goods” and the “others” so in the realm of that – when we slice thru that important of a support zone. I’ll use what I used back when I started this bank blog (unknowingly in the midst of one of the biggest banking failures ever) – something ain’t right at the circle K.

At this time, I AM NOT advocating to BUY the BANKS. I’m just looking for support as this things falls out of the sky.

From the last post, you can see that we have taken out the “largest measured move” correction (the 2020 COVID scare) since 2009. I’ve updated the TIME and PRICE of the largest correction on the chart during 2007-2009. The price is 45.90 and the TIME is out to early next year. (just putting the last one in perspective).

Tomorrow, 78.26 is important (1.618 extension) but it sure looks like it wants to get down to the high 60’s or the abcd around 60.

Of course we will have machinations up and down but … that’s some serious liquidation folks.

Banking Index – March 09, 2023 (UPDATE)

Last post on the Banking Index:

Here is the Banking Index PATTERN that we needed to watch and monitor. Folks, banks are everything. PERIOD. They lead us UP and they lead us DOWN. Something isn’t right at the circle K.

All things being equal, the wave that started today needs to finish 5 waves so I would step aside and let the banks pave the way … the BIG support is 83-86. Why? The red arrow is the largest price correction in the banking index since 2009. What happens at that level will be very key.

Next levels are the measured move down around 56-60 and the BIG ONE at 45-46.

Get your tinfoil hat peeps .. buckle up.

Financials – it’s pretty much all that matters – right now

they lead us UP and they lead us DOWN. the banks, financials … it’s that simple.

that being said, the move since March 2020 has been strong and straight up .. kaboom that’s a face ripper higher and, frankly, caught me off guard. why?

well … the ZIRP, the multiple trillions (yes I just typed MULTIPLE trillions) of sovereign debt is beyond anything that we could EVER imagine. folks we are in unchartered territory. again, we are in the vapor ware of experiential historical construct and, from where I sit, it’s UGLY.

but, the band plays on … right?

so, I present, more than likely the most important chart out there .. the banking index.

I had the opportunity and that is what it is .. an an opportunity to sit down w/ JC yesterday and chat … it was blast. but what came to me is while I have all these followers – thank you!- nobody really knows what I’m showing so I’m going to break it down …

BLUE VERTICAL ARROWS – they are measured moves .. every move UP has ended at their conclusion .. so, note around the 155 level – make it simple

DASHED BLACK LINES – just showing you where we take the key nodes and EXTEND from those points … NOTE that 149-155 we have some confluence.

ELLIOTT WAVE – love it, when it works … seriously. if your going to go down that rabbit hole, just learn the corrections … anyway, a VALID (trust me, doesn’t mean it’s a correct count LOL) count shows us finishing 5 waves in around the level sighted before. NOTE – the orange lines is the current wave that we are counting and 1=5 in our target zone.

so, 149-555 BIG DEAL for the financials ….

now .. go on … rock on, capture your stoke folks …


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