Banks – March 13, 2023 (updated)

Last post on the Banks:

So here’s the deal folks, I had NO IDEA that there was a banking crisis brewing when I put the GART SELL on the banks – it’s just a pattern. And, guess what, I’m trying NOT to pay attention to the ongoing machinations of the Federal Reserve, or some Twitter expert, or my buddy. I’m just looking at the CHART. In that PRICE and TIME we have the ENTIRE STORY UNFOLDING WITHOUT BIAS AND, FRANKLY, WITHOUT A CARE.

Every emotion, every thought, every decision, every hope and every dream is shown in the candle. Period. Dot. End of sentence.

The update above found a rather important support zone. Important, as my long time readers will understand, means a LOT of math comes together and its “logical” that a bounce or support is found. Cough Cough … sliced thru it without a care.

As we used to talk about flying fighters … (man I miss those days sometimes) .. the “goods” and the “others” so in the realm of that – when we slice thru that important of a support zone. I’ll use what I used back when I started this bank blog (unknowingly in the midst of one of the biggest banking failures ever) – something ain’t right at the circle K.

At this time, I AM NOT advocating to BUY the BANKS. I’m just looking for support as this things falls out of the sky.

From the last post, you can see that we have taken out the “largest measured move” correction (the 2020 COVID scare) since 2009. I’ve updated the TIME and PRICE of the largest correction on the chart during 2007-2009. The price is 45.90 and the TIME is out to early next year. (just putting the last one in perspective).

Tomorrow, 78.26 is important (1.618 extension) but it sure looks like it wants to get down to the high 60’s or the abcd around 60.

Of course we will have machinations up and down but … that’s some serious liquidation folks.

Banking Index – March 09, 2023 (UPDATE)

Last post on the Banking Index:

Here is the Banking Index PATTERN that we needed to watch and monitor. Folks, banks are everything. PERIOD. They lead us UP and they lead us DOWN. Something isn’t right at the circle K.

All things being equal, the wave that started today needs to finish 5 waves so I would step aside and let the banks pave the way … the BIG support is 83-86. Why? The red arrow is the largest price correction in the banking index since 2009. What happens at that level will be very key.

Next levels are the measured move down around 56-60 and the BIG ONE at 45-46.

Get your tinfoil hat peeps .. buckle up.

Financials – it’s pretty much all that matters – right now

they lead us UP and they lead us DOWN. the banks, financials … it’s that simple.

that being said, the move since March 2020 has been strong and straight up .. kaboom that’s a face ripper higher and, frankly, caught me off guard. why?

well … the ZIRP, the multiple trillions (yes I just typed MULTIPLE trillions) of sovereign debt is beyond anything that we could EVER imagine. folks we are in unchartered territory. again, we are in the vapor ware of experiential historical construct and, from where I sit, it’s UGLY.

but, the band plays on … right?

so, I present, more than likely the most important chart out there .. the banking index.

I had the opportunity and that is what it is .. an an opportunity to sit down w/ JC yesterday and chat … it was blast. but what came to me is while I have all these followers – thank you!- nobody really knows what I’m showing so I’m going to break it down …

BLUE VERTICAL ARROWS – they are measured moves .. every move UP has ended at their conclusion .. so, note around the 155 level – make it simple

DASHED BLACK LINES – just showing you where we take the key nodes and EXTEND from those points … NOTE that 149-155 we have some confluence.

ELLIOTT WAVE – love it, when it works … seriously. if your going to go down that rabbit hole, just learn the corrections … anyway, a VALID (trust me, doesn’t mean it’s a correct count LOL) count shows us finishing 5 waves in around the level sighted before. NOTE – the orange lines is the current wave that we are counting and 1=5 in our target zone.

so, 149-555 BIG DEAL for the financials ….

now .. go on … rock on, capture your stoke folks …


the EUROZONE the P I G S and the ECB

CLIFF NOTES: the yields on the Italian and Spanish bonds had a big jump last week. The question is – will the ECM support the bonds?  These are price swings that must be watched closely.  I honestly don’t know IF (the BIG IF) the ECB can support the market but it must be watched.

I’ve attached a chart that was done on the Social Media ETF showing the amazing increase in VOLUME as the sell PATTERN was completing.  Folks, if we took away the price of the EZU and SOCL ETF the volume would almost look exactly the same.  Here’s the picture of the SOCL at the highs:

notice the volume increasing as the "end was near"
notice the volume increasing as the “end was near”

the SOCL is off those highs 30-40%.  Now take a look at the picture w/ the EZU ETF:

notice the volume ..almost exactly like the SOCL.
notice the volume ..almost exactly like the SOCL.

next we overlay the XLF (financial ETF) w/ the EZU and it sure looks like this ETF is one big financial institution – as the banks go, so does the EZU and if you go back some posts you’ll see the XLF completed it’s sell pattern at 22. So …this bears watching. We do have a little more to go for the EZU SELL PATTERN but, w/ the EZU so synced w/ the XLF it might not get there.  Now, the banks could very well EXPLODE UP thru the 22-23 level and the band will play on. But just remember, we are at an inflection point and it’s time to watch this closely ….

EZU w/ XLF overlaid
EZU w/ XLF overlaid

Are the PIGS good to go (Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain) out of the woods or not…? Believe this upcoming pattern will tell us everything we need to know….

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