update for the JPM geometry

blogged about JPM a while ago: https://bartscharts.com/2018/08/30/jpm-and-tops-of-circles/ saw a bunch of geometry coming in around 120 and, thus far the geometry has held for almost 1.5 years .. would stay away until this level is exceed on a monthly close above the 120 level … geometry is holding it …

JPM and tops of circles

if you do a search for JPM on this site you’ll see it’s pretty much ‘paused’ at every PATTERN out there but ultimately broke thru and kept going higher w/ strength. Good on em’!

we are again at a PATTERN completing. Top of a circle, 1.618 price projection from the all time low, 2.71828 (natural log (found all over the Great Pyramid OBTW)) extension and some Adams pitch fork trend line stuff ..

so in the world I live in that’s the reason we have stopped in/around the 118 level.

note, when working w/ geometry look at how the market reacted to your work .. the dashed purple circles show how the ‘arc’ was support and when it hit 3 o’clock on the circle it exploded .. this just gives you credence that the arc is being respected.

note on the Adams Pitch fork that the ‘median’ line was responsible for resistance and support along the way up into these levels.

so what’s this all mean?  lot’s of math in/around 118 so resistance is expected. is it a top or the top – I have no idea but I’d be watching carefully …

Bart

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JPM update

10/21/2017 – around a year ago the pattern below was defeated by JPM.  as you can see from November 2016 it was a pretty big candle coming into this level.

we are now at another crucial level for JPM.  100-105 ‘should’ cause some stiff resistance. w/ the continued bullish movement of the overall market would definitely WAIT for a monthly/weekly SRC before selling or taking profits.

Bart

——————————————————————————-

11/19/2016 – update to JPM.

the pattern in/around the 60’s caused quite the chop fest but was, ultimately, defeated.

now, since the election, JPM has vaulted out of the gate into the ‘big AB=CD’ and extension area … because of such a big candle coming into this level, it begs of caution if trying to short – perhaps look for a weekly or daily signal reversal?

wrong above 84 …

B

page_16-11-19_16-29-19

 



JPM sell pattern
JPM sell pattern

 

JPM update

11/19/2016 – update to JPM.

the pattern in/around the 60’s caused quite the chop fest but was, ultimately, defeated.

now, since the election, JPM has vaulted out of the gate into the ‘big AB=CD’ and extension area … because of such a big candle coming into this level, it begs of caution if trying to short – perhaps look for a weekly or daily signal reversal?

wrong above 84 …

B

page_16-11-19_16-29-19

 



JPM sell pattern
JPM sell pattern

 

JPM Voo Doo – redux

Folks, we have now closed above the PATTERN level.  If we get thru 63.63 on a weekly close then this PATTERN has failed and JPM is off to the races. Again, this is a MONTHLY PATTERN.  When they fail … things really take off.  WATCH CLOSELY!

Main20141226080915

 

Folks, almost a year ago this pattern was ID’d on JPM … pretty crazy hugh?  here’s the updated chart – pattern appears to be hanging in there.  any daily close above, say, 63 would be a pattern failure IMHO.

again, before hitting the sack, it simply amazes me that I can sit here in my home office w/ a computer drawing lines and come up w/ a NUMBER that the market will respect.  Just checked and the average daily trading volume is roughly 10MM shares a day. folks, I don’t know but that’s a lot of shares …

so, for whatever reason, way before it ever got to the NUMBER 61, a simple PATTERN RECOGNITION dude ID’d the pattern and pointed it out ….

whomever is BUYING or SELLING those 10MM+ shares/day decided to stop BUYING at/around that EXACT number …

yup, pure VOO DOO …

let me know if you want to push the I believe button ….

JPM P A T T E R N hanging in there ...
JPM P A T T E R N hanging in there …

one last chart .. actually presented this chart at the MTA’s annual symposium and it’s the EXACT LOW (real time) of the JPM low in 2009.

 

chart presented at MTA
chart presented at MTA


 


 

11/19/2013

JPM sell pattern
JPM sell pattern

JPM Voo Doo

Folks, almost a year ago this pattern was ID’d on JPM … pretty crazy hugh?  here’s the updated chart – pattern appears to be hanging in there.  any daily close above, say, 63 would be a pattern failure IMHO.

again, before hitting the sack, it simply amazes me that I can sit here in my home office w/ a computer drawing lines and come up w/ a NUMBER that the market will respect.  Just checked and the average daily trading volume is roughly 10MM shares a day. folks, I don’t know but that’s a lot of shares …

so, for whatever reason, way before it ever got to the NUMBER 61, a simple PATTERN RECOGNITION dude ID’d the pattern and pointed it out ….

whomever is BUYING or SELLING those 10MM+ shares/day decided to stop BUYING at/around that EXACT number …

yup, pure VOO DOO …

let me know if you want to push the I believe button ….

JPM P A T T E R N hanging in there ...
JPM P A T T E R N hanging in there …

one last chart .. actually presented this chart at the MTA’s annual symposium and it’s the EXACT LOW (real time) of the JPM low in 2009.

 

chart presented at MTA
chart presented at MTA


 


 

11/19/2013

JPM sell pattern
JPM sell pattern

JPM updated w/ a SELL pattern complete

August 29 2014: when we use PATTERNS on weekly and monthly charts PATIENTS is a must.  If you take a look at the thread below, the JPM PATTERN was identified back in November 20013 and then didn’t hit for 4 months.  It hit, perfectly, and fell roughly 20 percent.  The rally has been roughly 203 months and now we have hit a KEY area for this to be ready for the next move down.  Last, remember, 64 is still a longer term target so this PATTERN  could fail and attack that number. Either way, we have a Gartley (blue shaded area) and a three drives (black w/ green shaded triangles) after a MONTHLY Gartley and Butterfly Pattern .. probability is this level holds.  We don’t know, we know we have a PATTERN and leave it at that.

JPM Daily
JPM Daily

 



 

 

March 23 2014: in November 2013 we targeted this area as a SELL pattern:

JPM beautiful sell pattern

much like the movie Inception  w/ the dream w/in a dream w/in a dream concept we also like PATTERNS to behave in the same manner. a pattern w/in a pattern w/in a pattern.  all this does is increase the probability of a pattern working.  does not guarantee it will work but does tip probability in our favor.

w/ JPM we have the following:

  • Monthly Gartley Pattern w/ a Buttefly pattern inside of it.
  • Daily 5 point reverse wave w/ a butterfly inside of it and inside of that butterfly is a 3 drives.

Folks, only probability but this pattern is complete.  If we get a daily open/close above 64 I would assume this pattern had failed.

Main20140323113036

Main20140323114517

this never gets old …

CLIFF NOTES: I have NEVER taken an econ or business course in my life.  I wouldn’t begin to even know how to look at anything that has to do w/ the fundamentals.  I am not saying that fundamentals (CFA) aren’t applicable or don’t work or anything like that I am only saying I know NOTHING about them and I look at the market ONLY threw the lens of numbers and patterns.  Quite frankly, in my mid-40’s, I’m 1) too lazy and 2) not smart enough to climb the wall of the CFA or MBA in Finance.

So, I fully acknowledge that trading the market based on sacred geometry, musical theory, square roots and their inverses, geometry and  fibonacci (note I put that last) is not necessarily in the main stream.  Come on … SPOT FX is a 3-4 trillion /day market.  At any given time 1000’s if not 100,000’s of computers, eyeballs and mouse clicks are buying and selling.  And w/ the massive flow of funds on a global basis I’m going to pull the trigger on some numbers coming together based on a $50/month charting package in my pajama’s here in Leesburg, VA?  That is crazy …well, for those that know me, I am a tad bit off the beaten path.

Full disclosure, in order to step up to the plate and take the  trade I consumed the theory of “why” these numbers and concepts worked everywhere else in the world.  And, you know what?  These PATTERNS are everywhere, the same NUMBERS that govern these PATTERNS are present everywhere and since EVERYTHING is vibration then perhaps the market is also vibratory?

Let’s take, for instance, JPM.  I know JPM is a big company and I know that they do “stuff” w/ Finance, Banking, etc.  And, that’s about it.  In my mind, I only see “J P M” on the top left but other than that I just look at the PATTERNS:

I presented this and a couple more charts at the MTA Conference in 2009 as an “Emerging CMT” –

JPM at the low
JPM at the low

 

JPM beautiful sell pattern

JPM updated w/ a SELL pattern complete

April 18 2014 JPM

I think the PATTERNS are the holy grail … because they work EVERY TIME.  TILT …?  Are you saying they are perfect?  YES – they are perfect at letting you know where you are wrong so you can manage the risk each and every time !!!!!!

To put this in context … let’s visit a book that is necessary in every investors library.  Mark Douglas ‘s Trading in the Zone 

  1. Anything can happen
  2. You DO NOT need to know what is going to happen next in order to make money
  3. There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define and edge
  4. An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over an other.
  5. Every moment in the market is unique.

Here is my edge, which never gets old:

Have a wonderful weekend w/ family and friends …

B

JPM updated w/ a SELL pattern complete

in November 2013 we targeted this area as a SELL pattern:

JPM beautiful sell pattern

much like the movie Inception  w/ the dream w/in a dream w/in a dream concept we also like PATTERNS to behave in the same manner. a pattern w/in a pattern w/in a pattern.  all this does is increase the probability of a pattern working.  does not guarantee it will work but does tip probability in our favor.

w/ JPM we have the following:

  • Monthly Gartley Pattern w/ a Buttefly pattern inside of it.
  • Daily 5 point reverse wave w/ a butterfly inside of it and inside of that butterfly is a 3 drives.

Folks, only probability but this pattern is complete.  If we get a daily open/close above 64 I would assume this pattern had failed.

Main20140323113036

Main20140323114517

remove bias, trade what you SEE – JP Morgan

does ANYONE remember the EMOTIONS of March 2009?  do you think ANYONE in their right mind would recommend a BUY on the XLF in MAR 2009?  well, just as a reminder here it is …

XLF at the LOW
XLF at the LOW

why am I pulling this thread right now?  well, the past couple days I have received some very convincing emails around how WRONG I am w/ regard to the PATTERNS that are appearing in the US Equity Market.  Here’s the dirty little secret .. I am NOT wrong because I just look for PATTERNS.  the PATTERN will work or it won’t. Over time, this EDGE will show profitability IF I manage the RISK.

a couple years ago I had the amazing opportunity to present to the entire MTA (www.mta.org) on PATTERN recognition as an “emerging CMT.” I presented a bunch of charts showing some GREAT set-ups based on PATTERNS.  No moving averages, bollinger bands, MACD, stochastics or any of that “stuff.”  Frankly, I believe they work but, honestly, I don’t understand them that well.  I like numbers, music and geometry.

here’s the chart that I presented on the BUY of JPM.  If you want me to go over the details of the chart, let me know by email and I will explain.  The PATTERN that was present was a BUY at 15 dollars.  BUY JPM at 15 …

I am presenting this, again, because at the HEIGHT of BEARISHNESS I was a BULL!  

JPM 2009 LOW
JPM 2009 LOW

here’s the AMAZING SELL PATTERN appearing on JPM:

JPM SELL Pattern ...
JPM SELL Pattern …

So … the SHORT PATTERN that has appeared on JPM is AWESOME!  Why AWESOME?  Because … the tightness of the 60-61 level has all the RATIO’s to create a pattern coming together.  It’s that SIMPLE.  When the “ratio’s” come together so tightly we can MANAGE RISK BETTER ….

one last, the .618 price projection (from the all time low-all time high-2009 low) was hit, exactly, today.  So, 58.48 could do it.

if we get above, say, 64 this puppy could “cook off” higher and the band will play on and I’ll continue to eat my “bearish pumpkin soup.”

make it a GREAT 2014!

BART