Tag: IWM

The Markets – March 24, 2024

The NYSE Index HIT the square out at 18, 059 and reacted very very minimally (which surprised me to be honest) and is walking up the wall of worry. Today that level is at 18,070.

As you can see above, we have not CLOSED ABOVE the 1:1 trend line from the all time low and I suspect that it will continue to provide MAJOR resistance BUT as it happened last week, it can keep squaring itself out until it reaches the ‘final’ square out. As long as we do not get a close above (monthly) the 1:1 trend line this market remains vulnerable (very ?) to a pullback that could last, at a minimum, a couple months.

Here’s the DJIA approaching or hit an area of MAJOR resistance.

Same story w/ the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ:

The Russell 2000 is VERY weak compared to the other indices:

On prior posts we have focused on the Banks/Financials … the XLF has outperformed and made new highs … the overall market has followed. We are VERY close to a BIG ABCD completing on the XLF. If you remember the post on the Banks/Financials a few months ago, the XLF pattern failed and the market kept going higher.

If we take a look at the Banking index (NASDAQ) you will see it has been lagging badly compared to the overall general market. REAL leadership in the Banks/Financials would have this MUCH higher.

Sure looks like a zig-zag correction and 1.68AB=CD was hit Friday.

Where are you Mr. KRE?

The VIX is/has been flirting w/ going single digits but, it’s been LOW for a very very long time. There is NO FEAR in the market right now.

The sentiment/ fear-greed/bullishness is at MAX levels … NOBODY is bearish.

I was on my good friend Larry’s show and we were discussing he unrelenting advance present. He mentioned, in some weekend mail traffic that the last week on WED-THS there was the HUGE rallly of over 1o0 handles in the S&P500 while awaiting the FED’s decision/action. On both of those days the cumlative net open interest dropped.

We need to also pay attention to the companies that are, basically, controlling the market as custodians. Vanguard, State Street and Blackrock control roughly 70% of all trading going on … One would think that these would be at new highs …like everyone else?

Larry showed this over the weekend:

when we look at the shorter term cycles … we can see this one going on w/ the S&P500. Notice the harmony w/ the lunar eclipse and the moons synodic cycle:

A non-correlated, but a goody, at looking for both bullish and bearish inflections in the market – ratio analysis of XLP/NYA is VERY close to MAJOR support which, in the past, has been “bearish” for stocks. Again, it’s a “institutional gauge” of risk/risk off.

When it’s risky – the smart guys like Tim but toilet paper …the XLP does WORSE (from a relative strength standpoint) than the overall market and vice versa.

The target appearing on the XLP/NYA is the LARGEST MEASURED MOVE correction in the ratio since the inception of the XLP. PAY ATTENTION TO THIS LEVEL and the .618 retracement (from the all time low) a little lower.

There are MANY stocks that are manically parabolic … stocks like LLY will crumble and fall like a stone. As demonstrated before, the parabolic moves, from a pure subconscious level, have to balance and that massive move up will be followed by a big correction. It happens, every time …

NVDA will do the same … yes, I believe NVDA is going higher BUT I think we need a good ole’ corrective move to cool everything down.

Here’s LLY parabolic:

Here is LLY in MONTHLY LOG scale .. bumping right into the upper channel:

The market is overextended. Large, monthly targets are being hit.

If a perennial bull – think of taking profit or have some sort of “loss” stop in mind. Some are calling for a MASSIVE TOP and others are saying this bull market continues for years.

I try, the best I can, to just look for patterns.

ACROSS THE BOARD SELL PATTERNS HAVE AND ARE APPEARING …

IF they work, THEN – at a minimum – expect a good 6-8 week “pullback” that must be bought. LET’S JUST WAIT FOR THE FIRST BUY PATTERN TO APPEAR AND LET IT RIP.

IF the fail, THEN – this market could explode higher … into a parabolic run up that will put the 2000’s to shame.

MANAGE THE RISK … that’s all we can do.

IWM – December 18, 2023

Last post on IWM: https://bartscharts.com/2023/02/03/iwm-february-3-2023/

The sell PATTERN worked from the last post but it really hasn’t gone anywhere – amazing that the “number” is still holding the bots, super computers, hedge funds, etc. from blowing thru it … all based on sacred geometry and music.

So, it’s not that much of a stretch to see this as a “bearish flat correction” in EWT and we are finishing/finished w/ the Wave C and IWM starts back down.

Did some very rudimentary timing work to get a feel for the timing … we could certainly go up a little more into resistance shown by the horizontal black line but let’s just wait and see what happens.

Last, the IWM “bottomed” on 161.8. Pfizer topped at 61.8 … can’t make this up folks. Cheers.

The above is the bearish case near/medium term for now … but when we have corrections like we do I always go back and work thru what Michael
Jenkins (www.stockcycleforecast.com) taught me w/ Mirror Image Foldbacks. They are AMAZING PATTERNS to see and follow and they “usually” will “fail” at the swing points but check this out … maybe? near term IWM keeps chugging up and then gets tanked? Hmmmmm ….

IWM … read this post to get your mind blown … if you want

last post on IWM: https://bartscharts.com/2021/08/30/iwm-and-another-upcoming-chat-w-jc/

holy smokes .. the underlying BULL market that we have right now is pretty amazing …

I went on to chat w/ JC of @allstarcharts.com a couple months ago and we talked a LOT about IWM. we went over the MATH of why it stopped where it did and, folks, the math on multiple time frames and multiple techniques was PERFECT. he still hasn’t “published” our podcast – maybe because he knew it was going to break out? 🙂 who knows …he’s a lot smarter than I am but still a GREAT dude. follow him peeps!

and guess what ..IWM pattern, it wasn’t WRONG but it certainly wasn’tRIGHT.

BOOM- we broke out today so guess what? I have to get my eraser out and start over and, unfortunately, that’s happened many many times. 🙂 why should I be surprised? well, keep reading.

the market went up to our target area and hit in/around 233. as we describe above, in an irrationally exuberant bull market, WAIT for the SRC and the signal reversal candle was finally hit the week of my birthday (note a fun fact – the HIGH on crude oil hit on my birthday 7/11 – shown below- synchronicity?)

the HIGH on Crude Oil on my birthday

I show the Crude because of my birthday but also because of the PROBABILITY of what can and can’t happen when a TON of math comes together.

folks, MORE math came together (see the last post linked at the top) on IWM .. so only being human I EXPECTED it to dump and the rest of the market to, well, at least follow along … ? unreasonable?

well there it sat … and sat … and then an SRC

Here is the SRC for IWM:

SRC for IWM

more than likely, a short would have been initiated and we would have been stopped out ….

end of story – right? well from a P+L perspective, yes. folks that is ALL that matters.

from a form and harmony and balance perspective this IWM continues to amaze me.

please see the chart below:

if you have been reading the blog you know we had been targeting this price zone for a while and when it hit you know I (most of the time) say WAIT for a signal reversal candle because it’s probability – right? of course … so sometimes the pattern will act as support or resistance (this is what IWM did for 233 days but ultimately it failed.) and sometimes it will work and inflect to your favor or it EXPLODES continuing the trend … it’s all probability. but I think I’ve shown that “stuff” happens around the patterns – fair enough?

what’s key for me, even though we are dealing w/ probability, is I KNEW there is still a “beat” or “rhythm” to it … that’s why the patterns help you manage risk, right?

so, at the end of the day today, I saw that the market was up again and I thought … “I bet (no kidding, I KNEW this was the case in my gut) we made the PRICE high the same many days (TIME) ago … “

there you have it above … 233 calendar days ago the price HIGH was hit and is it any coincidence that we BROKE OUT when PRICE equals TIME? NO – that is how it works. our job is to figure out what the key master has in store for us regarding the harmony and balance of what we are dealing with … it’s all based on math and music but it’s also a multi dimensional chess game …

why would I type that last sentence?

well, 233 is a Fibonacci number as shown on the chart above … the Architect, what a sense of humor she has ….

Bart

IWM and another upcoming chat w/ JC …

tomorrow, have the opportunity to sit down w/ JC and continue our discussion around Fibonacci and vibrations and patterns …I’ll post the talk after its completion and believe it’s also live streamed on Twitter. We’re doing it after the market closes …

in the last episode he specifically asked that we spend time on the “rock hitting the water” or the “initial ripple” … below, you’ll see the chart that gave us an “idea” of a POTENTIAL stopping point and it’s the “regular” technical analysis. this is the chart that I blogged.

but, in order to REALLY get an appreciation to why this LEVEL is so important and how, perhaps, one can start making that little move towards the cliff to jump into the rabbit hole w/ me I show some more of what’s really going on … not meant to confuse anyone but to visually show what I mean when I say I’ll usually look at 11-12 things before making an investment … I didn’t blog the last two charts because I think it’s just too much information. honestly, that’s the only reason.

Is IWM going to breakout or breakdown? YES. NO. Have no idea but whichever way it DOES GO it’s going to be a wave to catch and surf … fer sher. also, it never hit my Signal Reversal Candle. (SRC) who the heck knows when it’s going to blow …

initial post showing target zones for IWM
target being hit …
the green highlights are qual to the dashed red lines (note – start the “square” at 32 and other numbers …)
the ROCK hitting the water and the waves that result … the ROCK is the initial impulse move off the low on 10/10/2002 … using physics the fundamental frequency is then calculated.
simple calculation from the all time low and “creating” the IWM Musical Scale based on the Equal Octave Scale of Music (multiply each cell by 1.05946) NOTE: the high zone in IWM was equal to the finishing of the 4th octave.

IWM is that REALLY it …?

last post on IWM: https://bartscharts.com/2021/02/21/iwm-is-that-it/

I also blogged about KEY SUPPORT in/around 224-225. that was the FIRST PATTERN BUY in this long term uptrend. is that uptrend still alive?

if you go back to the last post mentioned above, you can see a very clear 5 wave move that, and this is important, BREAKS NO RULES of the Elliott Wave Theory. It’s a valid count …

now, is the count correct? we don’t know ….but we can find out rather soon as we have an almost perfect SELL PATTERN in/around the 225-227 level.

now for the IF and THEN

IF the top around 235 is a valid end to a 5th wave THEN this SELL PATTERN shown below SHOULD work.

a valid target will be 198-200 or below ….

have a GREAT EASTER to everyone if this is what you celebrate .. what an amazing time of the year and a time to be alive.

salute – Bart

IWM – KEY SUPPORT

last post about IWM: https://bartscharts.com/2021/02/21/iwm-is-that-it/

that’s the great thing about patterns … they work or they don’t.

WHEN they do, they tell you something.

conversely, when they DO NOT work, they tell you something.

I’ve been showing a 5 wave count in IWM for a while and, just recently, it went up and tagged our target zone. it’s one of many target zones …

the question is “is this the one?”

I don’t know … but we have an intraday BUY PATTERN and if this is a bullish corrective move then this level SHOULD hold … yes, a correction can go into the 210’s but in this case we have the classic AB=CD, 1.4142 extension and the .382 retracement all right here, right now.

IF bullish, THEN this level holds and goes higher …. we’ll see

IWM – is that it?

adding to this last post about IWM: https://bartscharts.com/2019/03/02/iwm/

I’m teaching my son about “advanced” Pattern Recognition … it’s fun and the big thing we keep hammering into each other is trade what you SEE not what you think/believe. (thanks Larry P)

well, here is IWM.

what do I see:

  1. a VALID wave count that breaks no rules. I feel comfortable in saying that we are in a 5th wave …
  2. AB=CD or Wave 3 = Wave 5 at 234.
  3. 1.732 extension (daily)
  4. fundamental frequency from the first impulse low of October 2002 – July 2007
  5. Square of 9 targets
  6. geometrical projection technique

Folks, a LOT of thrust into this level, so .. playing it safe here and WAITING for a signal reversal candle weekly close below 206.

A LOT OF MATH HAS BEEN HIT ON IWM …

it’s only probability and only a pattern … if it holds, ramifications are BIG.

IWM – update

IWM – another leg down to complete corrective sequence?

12/1 – quick update to show that the “expect resistance” level has been hit so do just that .. expect some resistance. the form and proportion certainly don’t appear to mean this is the end of a move … I could be wrong, but the thrust and strength certainly suggest higher but not after, perhaps a pause/pullback here in this expected resistance area.

11/22 – nice run from the target area depicted below down in/around 100. You see, we were able to use PATTERNS and some math to figure out a likely “stopping point” or “resistance” for IWM around 173 … we then used a GUIDELINE to pick a nice area where it “could” go. in this case, it did … that solidified a pretty good or solid count of 1,2,3,4 as NO rules were broken and the guideline for the 4th wave worked (this time) so, safe to say, we have a probability that we are in a 5th wave for IWM. as stated on the chart, there isn’t really any form, balance or proportion to make a “good” (in my case that would be very AVERAGE) count …. so, using some “guidelines” I was able to find 181 by using wave relationships and proportionality … in this case 181 represents .618 wave 3 and 1.618 wave 1 projected from the wave 4 low of 95. “expect” some resistance in/around here. but, I just don’t think that it’s it for more upside … stay tuned.

the last time I blogged by IWM was here: https://bartscharts.com/2018/05/17/iwm-caveat-emptor-and-check-out-where-price-hovered-today-in-my-p-s-below-cool/

we correctly ID a target zone of resistance and am now looking for another wave down sequence that will, if this count is correct, lead to a great BUY opportunity. I’ve outlined my count in the chart below …