IWM – another leg down to complete corrective sequence?
12/1 – quick update to show that the “expect resistance” level has been hit so do just that .. expect some resistance. the form and proportion certainly don’t appear to mean this is the end of a move … I could be wrong, but the thrust and strength certainly suggest higher but not after, perhaps a pause/pullback here in this expected resistance area.
11/22 – nice run from the target area depicted below down in/around 100. You see, we were able to use PATTERNS and some math to figure out a likely “stopping point” or “resistance” for IWM around 173 … we then used a GUIDELINE to pick a nice area where it “could” go. in this case, it did … that solidified a pretty good or solid count of 1,2,3,4 as NO rules were broken and the guideline for the 4th wave worked (this time) so, safe to say, we have a probability that we are in a 5th wave for IWM. as stated on the chart, there isn’t really any form, balance or proportion to make a “good” (in my case that would be very AVERAGE) count …. so, using some “guidelines” I was able to find 181 by using wave relationships and proportionality … in this case 181 represents .618 wave 3 and 1.618 wave 1 projected from the wave 4 low of 95. “expect” some resistance in/around here. but, I just don’t think that it’s it for more upside … stay tuned.
we correctly ID a target zone of resistance and am now looking for another wave down sequence that will, if this count is correct, lead to a great BUY opportunity. I’ve outlined my count in the chart below …
I’ve seen the very strong strength shown by IWM (ETF for Russell 2000) but I also see 5 waves and monthly bearish divergence. I’m not ‘sold’ on the bullish aspect of this ETF, yet. Let’s see how it deals w/ the 2 daily butterfly patterns (bearish) that are present right in the zone of the measured move shown on the monthly …
What I can say is that IF these patterns fail this puppy will, indeed, explode. But that monthly tells me … not so fast and be careful of the ‘no brainer’ trade being long IWM.
PS – for those of you who are geeks, like me, notice the close hovered around 161.80’s or the golden mean – 1.618. Note – our subconscious mind doesn’t worry about decimals points.
so, in October of 2013 (yes, more than a year ago) I was beating the drum of a very important top forthcoming top/target zone in the IWM. (An ETF of the Russel 2000.) See below the double line area …
The zone depicted from that post in October 2013 is below and , yes, the IWM respected the zone and corrected roughly 12-15%. A “decent” correction so to speak.
so, as of today, as the DOW and S&P recorded new intraday highs, the Russell (and, OBTW, the big daddy $NYA) are stuck at the.786 retracement.
Folks, clear and simple … we are at checkmate w/ regard to the stocks. I’m biased that “the band plays on” and we climb the deflationary ladder of chaos for, perhaps, another year OR we stop in/around here (next week perhaps) and start down w/ a really good and scary shakedown.
but before we try to “guess” what is going to happen next … go put some Pink Floyd on Google Play, pour a glass of wine and just walk w/ me down the musical component of the stock market … don’t try to figure out the WHY or the WHAT and,well, completely throw this away as bullshit if you want.
I don’t care … but the bottom line is the ENTIRE THING HAS BEEN FUCKING PERFECT in regards to the world of music. Bada Bing Bong Boom ….
SQUARE ROOTS RUN EVERYTHING:
.786 … just a number
but one of the most important retracement numbers out there. and, contrary to what people say , IT IS NOT A FIBONACCI NUMBER!
it does derive from 1.618 (which is the golden mean) but here’s the deal … it’s a musical derivation of the Fibonacci based golden mean…why you might ask?
square root = 1.27
1/1.27 = .786.
the frequency of a string is INVERSELY PROPORTIONAL to the SQUARE ROOT OF its weight (length)
additionally, the frequency is DIRECTLY PROPORTIONAL to the SQUARE ROOT of its tension ….
SQUARE ROOTS AND THEIR INVERSES FOLKS !!!!!
so as we look at the TOP in IWM … 121 (hello a NATURAL SQUARE 11*11 = 121) we can see WHY the puppy stopped in/around 104. TILT — HUGH?
121 square root = 11.
11-.786 = 10.214
10.214^2 = 104.32 (PLEASE LOOK AT THE CHART BELOW AND NOTICE THE CLOSES AND OPENS DENOTED BY THE LIGHT BLUE LINE) – THAT LINE IS DRAWN AT 104.
OK Bart … that’s kind of cool. But, for one moment don’t even tell me that it was a 104 calendar day correction from the high at 121….!
all time high 07/01/2014
add 104 calendar days: 10/13/2014 – please see the chart.
folks, that was the EXACT close and the OFF THE IWM went …
so, what the heck does all this mean … as my wife likes to tell me — give me the CLIFF NOTES.
1. this ZONE depicted is a MAJOR pattern from the all time low.
2. the .786 retracement from the 121 high has held the market from going higher
if we lose this thing to the upside THEN it could cook off in a sling shot parabolic move ..
3. the MATH shown is simply to show that, well, it was PERFECT in PRICE and TIME and therefore the subsequent move up was 1) expected and 2) makes sense.
4. IF LONG – in the context of this amazing run in the Russell 2000 – I would just simply hold it and roll w/ it .. HOWEVER if we break that 104 level then cut it and bail.
5. If SHORT – then watch for a WEEKLY (tomorrow) close above the .786 and if you get a graceful exit on Sunday Night/Monday morning get ready to cut it and get long for a good year or so as this puppy launches.
Last thing … I HAVE NO IDEA WHICH SCENARIO WILL PLAY OUT ….
email me if you have any questions …
I just want to make sure you, my bad ass readers, have a clue as what I’m trying to convey.
At a minimum, you can tell your significant other to leave you alone, put some Pink Floyd on and enjoy a glass of wine w/ some square root stuff ….
measured moves are powerful tools and on long term charts they are very useful for forecasting price moves. take a look at the chart below … the BLUE arrows are the lengths of the bull moves in the IWM. appears the current move will converge nicely in/around 113-114. Then, since we are all working w/ probabilities, what do you think the probability is that we find stiff/major/topping (?) resistance in around that area…? if that doesn’t stop it then watch 120-121 … either way we have the POTENTIAL for, at a minimum a 6th month correction?
last thing is some very easy time study … note the TIME it took for the first blue arrow to go up…now look at the TIME of this move that began at 34.
we have a convergence of PRICE and TIME in and around here … just saying.
10/1/2014: funny how it all works out … the below is copied from a post that I did on 10/21/2013 – a year ago. a PATTERN was appearing in the zone of 113-120 and it sure looked like a doozy. I wrote “or I’m going into gardening” because I was, honestly, laughed at for even thinking the almighty IWM would stop. well, news flash, I guess in the end the issue is I DO NOT THINK. I just point out PATTERNS and they work or they don’t …
so, anyway, I wish I could publish this anonymously because, well, I don’t want this to be about me making a good call or a bad call. spend some time on my site and you’ll see some AMAZING PATTERNS at work. have I DEFIED HUMAN NATURE and DONE THE WORK – yes. someone would say to an obsessive degree but if your going to go down the path of trusting the vibrations, music and PATTERNS to work and, as a technician TAKE EVERY INDICATOR OFF YOUR CHART then you better well darn understand the underlying thesis of why this works – works being defined as letting you manage risk. I do so that’s cool …
but again it’s about the PATTERNS …
so, I’m not trying to cause any issues or anything but can someone who is a fundamentalist please tell me how a 1.618 price projection and a 1.68179 extension and a bunch of numbers originating from 34 and being on the same axis caused EVERY high so far in the IWM? Or, just leave it to the standard answer Voo Doo.
Either way, here’s my challenge. If you are a fundamentalist, take a modicum of time and studying technical analysis. If your a technician looking to take it to the next level, give me a call or drop me a line. But first … take EVERYTHING off your chart and simply “trust” price and time and the fact they will make PATTERNS!
Here’s the updated chart …
10/21/2013: the “zone” of 113-120 should be very strong if not the “top” for a while … if this pattern fails, I’m going into gardening.
9/22/2014 – the IWM has been getting a lot of news lately and well it should. just wanted to point out the below charts that warned of 113-120 being very stiff resistance if not a TOP back in November of last year … sure looks like distribution but, knowing nothing of the fundamentals I will reiterate over and over and over and over (get the picture) on my blog that’s it’s simply a PATTERN. Sometimes they work, sometimes they don’t. Manage the risk ….
note the same fractal present as 2007 .. still believe the 108 handle will be key to supporting either the bulls or the bears …
11/26/2013: the “zone” of 113-120 should be very strong if not the “top” for a while … if this pattern fails, I’m going into gardening.
for any of you who have followed this blog will attest – I simply live and die by the patterns. They are an edge …and edge is simply something that is more likely to happen than not. If I manage risk then the edge supports making money in the markets. I DO NOT care how one enters the market …there are more ways to enter the market than one could think and the brightest minds in the world are on the street coming up w/ all kinds of ways to make money in the market.
what works for me …? PATTERNS based on the fact that there is a collective ENERGY/VIBRATION to the market. And this ENERGY/VIBRATION repeats itself and because is vibration and energy then it will abide by the mathematics of musical theory, sacred geometry, square roots and blah blah blah …
my mentor and friend Mike Jenkins (www.stockcyclesforecast.com) taught me this very SIMPLE but POWERFUL method …. it’s total voodoo OR not ….
1. The Signal Reversal Candle on a LONG TERM chart is very very important. It’s the candle that erases the “emotion/energy/vibration” of the proceeding bull or bear market. It “usually” occurs on a MONTHLY chart.
2. Once you have a well defined MONTHLY SRC then, IF YOU BELIEVE THE MARKET IS MUSICAL (cliff notes: I do) THEN you simply use that SRC as the seed and define it as the UNIT which will define a run UP or DOWN.
3. In this example of the S&P you can see the SRC and how we simply sub-divided it and PROJECTED up into the 1996 area. That target “completes” this run …
4. As you are well aware this is an EDGE! Right … it’s a target and an edge that MIGHT work or MIGHT not but, I’m certainly aware of this target. Look at what happened to the PATTERN on HD – it got smoked today. That same pattern STOPPED IN ITS TRACKS – the DAX, Boeing (BA), WYNN, IBB (buy), etc etc ….so, it’s all probability and that’s OK, for me. Also, don’t use it alone … work your own technicals, moving averages, oscillators, fundamentals – whatever – but be aware of these levels.
5. Last thing – I’m going to pick two or three securities that I have NEVER done this before and just do this technique and see what happens. Not that many, but a couple because, well I’m tried after Bikram Yoga.
Hey, hope you are having a great week!
in my mind, the only Voo Doo out there is the Federal Reserve …
Folks, sorry for the delay but was on the Outer Banks w/ family and ZERO access to email, VM, texts and NO cell phone … recommend it if you get the chance! 🙂
That being said, I did get my daily fix on the markets thru Fox Business or CNBC and laughed to myself w/ regard to the “under performance” of the Small Caps and the focus on IWM and it’s relative strength. Why? Well here’s the blog post on the IWM: