Natural Gas and UNG

if you search for Natural Gas on the blog, you’ll see for almost 3 years – yes 3 years, I’ve been flirting w/ a low (big low) on Nat Gas and looking for the pop … back in 2017 we ID’d a pop but it quickly got run over. Wrong …and, since then, I’ve really just dropped it off my radar.

two of my really good virtual (unfortunately) friends from the Academy, Rugby, flying and blah blah and me trade texts back and forth. they act all smart like they are finance guys about the news and the P&E (did I spell that right) and fundamentals .. I just look at PATTERNS.

they asked about Nat Gas. “Great,” I thought “I can go back and visit my old nemesis. and, I would be an idiot to forget what now President Biden said about energy, right? One would think it would be falling out of the sky. EXACT opposite.

I believe it made a VERY big low in July, it just finished a 5 wave move up from an “ending diagonal” and we have 5 ratio’s (retracements, extensions, measured moves, projections) all coming in at 2.2.

I do want you take note of the yellow area at the left of the screen .. on a daily, this area looks like an expanded flat. however, when you drill down to a lower time frame (here a 4 hour) it sure looks like I’m curve fitting – which I might be, just being honest. I’m putting a bias into the fact that I’m right on the thesis: BIG LOW. that changes things somewhat because wave 4 CANNOT go below the end of wave 1 (or above if going down). sometimes you can dirty your purist mindset and maybe go w/ a CLOSE below 1 and if there is a daily wick or two right around the end of 1 you can curve fit and the count continues. folks, in this case 4 was below for almost 10 days … that’s a broken rule and an invalid count. see how fun Elliott Wave can be …?

one last, if you look at where the “PATTERN BUY” level is at that 2.1-2.2 zone one will see that the PATTERN completely closes the gap left on the 4 hour chart … nice.

If you look at UNG, it hasn’t budged so if your going to play the ETF/Fund side of the house, I would recommend that you wait to BUY until Nat Gas hits 2.2 on the continuous futures contract.

Natural Gas carving out a low?

08/05/2017 – was asked to take a look at NATGAS again … I still feel we are in a consolidative or bottoming period.  and the “we are here” from my last post is still valid.

  • note we have a head and shoulders forming .. key support is the .786 at 2.713 and then the neckline around 2.51-2.57
  • we have a buy pattern in/around 1.953-2.139.
  • note, the apex to neckline projection takes us below the all time low in/around 1.621.
  • roll /w the buy pattern and then use the all time low as the shaded red box defining risk? Perhaps …?

as for UNG – note the last post had a pretty nice BUY pattern and it hit then tallied up to the 9.45 area.  sure looks like a BUY in/around here w/ a stop out below 5.75 could be a play IF this is going to rally.

hope this helps ..

 


 

folks, for those of you have been following me for a while you know that sometimes you eat the bar and sometimes the bar eats you.  (man I love that movie … the Big Labowski)

anyway, the “bar has eaten me” on Natural Gas. I played w/ a foldback pattern that REALLY looked nice and it basically failed below the levels – BUT  the PATTERN still appears to be working …perhaps?

either way, I think we have a big low in place on Natural Gas and I haven’t looked at it for a WHILE after it kicked my butt.  looking at it today – I see another potential foldback potential.

Page_16-07-31_17-07-51

man, I wish I had more data on Natural Gas prices …

here’s the “other” foldback that kicked my ass …the form and symmetry sure look nice, don’t they? If right, natgas is about to rip higher ..

Page_16-07-31_17-12-07

here’s a look at $UNG

Page_16-07-31_17-16-15

 

 

Natural Gas (NATGAS) NG #F

folks, for those of you have been following me for a while you know that sometimes you eat the bar and sometimes the bar eats you.  (man I love that movie … the Big Labowski)

anyway, the “bar has eaten me” on Natural Gas. I played w/ a foldback pattern that REALLY looked nice and it basically failed below the levels – BUT  the PATTERN still appears to be working …perhaps?

either way, I think we have a big low in place on Natural Gas and I haven’t looked at it for a WHILE after it kicked my butt.  looking at it today – I see another potential foldback potential.

Page_16-07-31_17-07-51

man, I wish I had more data on Natural Gas prices …

here’s the “other” foldback that kicked my ass …the form and symmetry sure look nice, don’t they? If right, natgas is about to rip higher ..

Page_16-07-31_17-12-07

here’s a look at $UNG

Page_16-07-31_17-16-15