Tag: fixed income

TBT update

last post on TBT: https://bartscharts.com/2021/06/20/tbt-3/

TBT has fallen into the bottom level of BUY zone and I’m long TBT in/around 18.

A lot going on w/ his chart but wanted to show you some “other” geometry that I was working … you see, we can make arcs and develop trend lines using the geometry of the chart but also, using the TIME and PRICE to define the vectors.

in this case, we take the all time low and draw the bottom of the square to intersect the “time” of the high. that will define our arcs and the square. the most important aspect of a square is the 45 degree angle (red line) and that line we then “copy” and “paste” to the bottom right of the first square and, well look at that … it intersects the LOW almost exactly. we also draw another square (and we can/will keep drawing these squares to find the trend lines running the show) and notice how the two 45 degree angles TIMED the low almost exactly .. (FWIW, this was a precise 1.618 AB =CD and a .618 retracement along w/ the same percentage corrective move that drove price into the all time low … came in around 21-22 percent decline.

so, while we do have the traditional “slap a retracement grid and look for the .618 retracement and a whole lot more …

take some time to study this chart .. try to understand it as it’s very helpful, indeed.

and, w/ all this work, I’ll consider it “wrong” if we get a daily close below 16.08 (.786 retracement)good weekend to everyone …

Bart

Quick update – FED FUNDS INTEREST RATE FUTURES – FF

05/22/2017 –  take note of the ‘potential’ for the polarity principle to take place.  in this case, where there is resistance there ‘should be’ support.

***note: the gap down below the former resistance w/ this months action. something to watch … a gap down and move lower signifies higher interest rates.  monitor closely.

have a good night.

B

Interest rate forecast …updated

8/28/2014: the 2.358 level did not hold.  In fact, in the way I look at the market, the PATTERN caused the gap. the gap below the pattern is a big deal.  I’ve shown the projection/pattern that “caused” the low at 2.322.  right now, looks like our low back on August 15, 2014 will be attacked.

Main20140828232643I’m not trying to call for a increase in interest rates or a continued fall in interest rates.  frankly, I don’t have clue about the fundamental aspects of what the Fed is doing or not doing.  What I do know is PATTERNS and sometimes they work (which they do — alot) and sometimes they don’t.  This pattern, below, clearly failed at the level we were expecting to hold. but here is the deal …on the way up w/ interest rates it was CLEARLY 5 waves up … so this means we are CORRECTING and there is, supposed (the operative word) be ANOTHER WAVE UP ….

10 year weekly
10 year weekly

 

 

 

8/22/2014 – if you read below you’ll read “my bet is on the TEN YEAR holding this low and starting back up ….”  If that is the case then we have a VERY NICE PATTERN appearing on the Ten Year Treasury Yield that has multiple confirmations going for it ….remember folks, this is a 5 minute chart.

also, I have “copy/pasted” the earlier this week post on Jackson Hole and the fixed income structure …

the PATTERN:

  • it’s a nice corrective pattern a-b-c.  expectation is that “c” is in work and “should” take yields down to 2.358.
  • c = 1.618*a right at ….2.358.
  • a 1.618 extension of the “b” wave takes us right to ….2.358
  • a retracement from the “key” low that we have watched for a while is .618 at …. you guessed it …2.358.

when all of these numbers line up … in this case SUPPORT usually occurs.

make it a great weekend …

5 minute ten year rate PATTERN
5 minute ten year rate PATTERN

one last … I have ABSOLUTELY NO IDEA what Janet Yellen and the FED did this week or what in the world was said in the meeting minutes.  Frankly, I don’t care … PATTERNS, PATTERNS, PATTERNS.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             

CLIFF NOTES: folks, follow this link to catch up on the Fixed Income story: http://bartscharts.com//?s=fixed+income

CLIFF NOTES 2: this is a tough one … the pattern in the fixed income market (30 year) failed and has gone much higher//the pattern on TBT failed.  HOWEVER, the long standing target on the TEN YEAR Treasury Yield was hit on Friday.  Quite frankly, I didn’t think it would get hit as the 2.4 level provide some nice support and then, ultimately failed.   So we are at THE critical level for the rate structure on the 10 year.  I’ll stand by my guns this is corrective in nature, but the Ten Year needs to stop here or we’ll vacuum lower and rates will continue to plummet.  I also updated the 30 year count to show a potential NEW HIGH if this count is correct.  I will be the first to admit that our pattern failed on the 30 year/TBT.  In fact, we found the support for the long bond ( http://bartscharts.com/2014/01/04/thelma-and-louis-and-fixed-income/ ) and it was at a very crucial level at the time of that post.  It held and since then has rocketed higher (lower rates).

CLIFF NOTES 3: we are at a CRUCIAL CRUCIAL LEVEL …. not trying to be wishy washy as we have to take a stand but I can see the case of either direction. But in order to take a stand and some risk – my bet is on the TEN YEAR holding this low and starting back up ….

CHEERS!

HI, I am fully aware the FED is leveraged beyond thunder dome !!!!
HI, I am fully aware the FED is leveraged beyond thunder dome !!!!

 

Main20140817110505 Main20140817110951 Main20140817112020 Main20140817113414 Main20140817120553 Main20140817120935 Main20140817121143

Interest rate forecast …

8/22/2014 – if you read below you’ll read “my bet is on the TEN YEAR holding this low and starting back up ….”  If that is the case then we have a VERY NICE PATTERN appearing on the Ten Year Treasury Yield that has multiple confirmations going for it ….remember folks, this is a 5 minute chart.

also, I have “copy/pasted” the earlier this week post on Jackson Hole and the fixed income structure …

the PATTERN:

  • it’s a nice corrective pattern a-b-c.  expectation is that “c” is in work and “should” take yields down to 2.358.
  • c = 1.618*a right at ….2.358.
  • a 1.618 extension of the “b” wave takes us right to ….2.358
  • a retracement from the “key” low that we have watched for a while is .618 at …. you guessed it …2.358.

when all of these numbers line up … in this case SUPPORT usually occurs.

make it a great weekend …

5 minute ten year rate PATTERN
5 minute ten year rate PATTERN

one last … I have ABSOLUTELY NO IDEA what Janet Yellen and the FED did this week or what in the world was said in the meeting minutes.  Frankly, I don’t care … PATTERNS, PATTERNS, PATTERNS.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             

CLIFF NOTES: folks, follow this link to catch up on the Fixed Income story: http://bartscharts.com//?s=fixed+income

CLIFF NOTES 2: this is a tough one … the pattern in the fixed income market (30 year) failed and has gone much higher//the pattern on TBT failed.  HOWEVER, the long standing target on the TEN YEAR Treasury Yield was hit on Friday.  Quite frankly, I didn’t think it would get hit as the 2.4 level provide some nice support and then, ultimately failed.   So we are at THE critical level for the rate structure on the 10 year.  I’ll stand by my guns this is corrective in nature, but the Ten Year needs to stop here or we’ll vacuum lower and rates will continue to plummet.  I also updated the 30 year count to show a potential NEW HIGH if this count is correct.  I will be the first to admit that our pattern failed on the 30 year/TBT.  In fact, we found the support for the long bond ( http://bartscharts.com/2014/01/04/thelma-and-louis-and-fixed-income/ ) and it was at a very crucial level at the time of that post.  It held and since then has rocketed higher (lower rates).

CLIFF NOTES 3: we are at a CRUCIAL CRUCIAL LEVEL …. not trying to be wishy washy as we have to take a stand but I can see the case of either direction. But in order to take a stand and some risk – my bet is on the TEN YEAR holding this low and starting back up ….

CHEERS!

HI, I am fully aware the FED is leveraged beyond thunder dome !!!!
HI, I am fully aware the FED is leveraged beyond thunder dome !!!!

 

Main20140817110505 Main20140817110951 Main20140817112020 Main20140817113414 Main20140817120553 Main20140817120935 Main20140817121143

Jackson Hole … let the games begin

CLIFF NOTES: folks, follow this link to catch up on the Fixed Income story: http://bartscharts.com//?s=fixed+income

CLIFF NOTES 2: this is a tough one … the pattern in the fixed income market (30 year) failed and has gone much higher//the pattern on TBT failed.  HOWEVER, the long standing target on the TEN YEAR Treasury Yield was hit on Friday.  Quite frankly, I didn’t think it would get hit as the 2.4 level provide some nice support and then, ultimately failed.   So we are at THE critical level for the rate structure on the 10 year.  I’ll stand by my guns this is corrective in nature, but the Ten Year needs to stop here or we’ll vacuum lower and rates will continue to plummet.  I also updated the 30 year count to show a potential NEW HIGH if this count is correct.  I will be the first to admit that our pattern failed on the 30 year/TBT.  In fact, we found the support for the long bond ( http://bartscharts.com/2014/01/04/thelma-and-louis-and-fixed-income/ ) and it was at a very crucial level at the time of that post.  It held and since then has rocketed higher (lower rates).

CLIFF NOTES 3: we are at a CRUCIAL CRUCIAL LEVEL …. not trying to be wishy washy as we have to take a stand but I can see the case of either direction. But in order to take a stand and some risk – my bet is on the TEN YEAR holding this low and starting back up ….

CHEERS!

HI, I am fully aware the FED is leveraged beyond thunder dome !!!!
HI, I am fully aware the FED is leveraged beyond thunder dome !!!!

 

Main20140817110505 Main20140817110951 Main20140817112020 Main20140817113414 Main20140817120553 Main20140817120935 Main20140817121143

the initial impulse move … is the DNA

30 year fixed income continuous contract
30 year fixed income continuous contract

spent last night w/ my wife of 23 years and best friend since we were 15, at the Andrea Bocelli concert …as a self proclaimed market musician on many occasions I found myself w/ eyes closed trying to hear the different chords/tempo and harmony being blended.  it was pretty cool …so this morning I thought I would take you down a trip along “harmony” lane and talk about the initial impulse move or DNA of ANY liquid instrument.

the longer the chart time frame the better .. we have shown the ability of “nodes” from the late 1800’s taking part in moves that have occurred in the 2000’s.  so if you have long term data, use it.  in this case we are looking at the low on the bonds from 1981.  this low created the very powerful 30+ year move in fixed income.

1.  the bold blue arrow is the “seed” or “DNA” that begins this move … do you know it at the time? probably not.  HOWEVER, after the first pullback (on a long term chart) you can start to assume a major inflected top or bottom is in place and start the trip down the “harmony” lane.

2.  from that initial impulse move up (note it takes it account the slope of the move – you include PRICE and TIME) draw a SQUARE.  Now, using “standard” trend line tools draw a 45 degree angle and then, well, your done.  connect the 45 degree angle to the top and the low of the box and simply take a look at what appears.  THE HARMONY/GEOMETRY of the MOVE.

now, as far as this chart goes we have a lot of “stuff” going …

1.  note the largest corrective move in the 30+ year BULL RUN takes us into the 123 11 area.

2.  note, this largest corrective move occurred during the 2008 thumping in equities.  it’s already 3/4 over and equities haven’t even moved … hmmm.

3.  if you look at the wave structure is sure looks like we are in wave 5 of 3 that “should” take us to attack that level indicated by the horizontal blue line.

4.  note how the “trend line” and the “measured move correction” come together right in/around the 123-124 level.

5.  let’s not forget, this is a massive BULL run so it would only make sense that the trend will continue.  this 123-124 level will be the line in the sand, IMHO (h= humbled) opinion.

stay tuned ….

here’s the dollar index, takes about 10 minutes

dollar index squares
dollar index squares

fixed income … the one more high or final high in place quick looks

take the time to catch up on  by reading/viewing charts from the below links…

last post:

http://bartscharts.com/2013/11/05/fixed-income-time-is-right-but-what-about-the-price-and-the-underlying-trend/

post that warned of a very important top – before I was blogging:

http://allstarcharts.com/are-interest-rates-at-a-key-inflection-point/

bonds sold off hard on Friday and what could be the start of another leg down.

let me digress for a bit .. I LOVE Elliot Wave – when it’s easy to count.  LOL – no kidding if you can pay attention to corrections and their form (flats, zig zags, triangles, expanded flats, double threes, etc) and live by the rules (3 can’t be shortest, 2 can’t go above/below the beginning of 1, 4 can’t go past the end of 1) you can get kind of dangerous at it.  when I try to force a count it’s probably correcting or “the grid is shifting” and the count will, ultimately come to me.  so, am I on a 5 minute chart counting every squiggle?  nope … however, I do look for counts on monthly and weekly charts.

back to fixed income … if we look at the low in the summer of 2009 we’ll see the next leg up on bonds (the last?) start in earnest.  Wave 1 peaks out and, as you can see, I have labeled to areas where 1 might have finished.  then we go down into 2 and then this is where it gets interesting … if we make (1) = 3 then the correction BLOWS THRU 1 and we have broke our rule so we have to sub-divide and then NICELY count (1), (2), (3), (4),(5) into the all time high and that high becomes 3.  for me, it’s the only way that I can count it and NOT break rules.

w/ that in mind, we see a 3 wave move down (a) and then a 3 wave movement up (b) and now we are rolling in a pretty devastating C wave…the “internals” of this C wave are very nice in that 3 was exactly 1.618 of 1 and IF 5=1 we land right on the top of the wave 1 that began the move in 2009 and it also equals the MAX/EXTREME corrective move that has ever occurred in this 30+ year move…IF that level holds and we start going up then, we might be up to another high.  Sounds crazy but that is what the chart is telling us w/ regard to “one more high”

the chart:

November 10 2013 LONG BOND MONTHLYNovember 10 2013 Long Bond Weeklyhere is the bearish count – note the entire 2 was a flat type of correction and therefore, you “could” fit this one into the picture….either way, we are on the right side of the market and I feel pretty certain that we’ll target that long standing trend line at 127-128 (red line) and/or the 124 level.  I expect rates to rise accordingly as this target area is attacked.  Stay tuned …

Long Bond w/ a modified count to show the all time high
Long Bond w/ a modified count to show the all time high

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