EURUSD – January 24, 2023

EURUSD hitting/hit significant resistance.

EUR vs USD Hourly

5 waves complete … wave 1 = wave 5 (blue arrows) .. initial impulse wave natural log and/or square root 8 projection … ffrequency target (good stop out if it blows thru) …1.732 extension from of wave 3- 4 (note, wave 3 = 2.236 (square root of 5) ….

all this being said, this is 5 waves UP folks so the coming pullback is one we want to BUY … for now, that’s around (previous wave 4 of a lesser degree) in/around 1.05. we’ll just have to wait and see …

Bart

US Dollar Index and Euro … come to papa!

here is the EUR vs USD. note, a pretty wide band of target zones and when working w/ FX that’s just too much risk …

so, a majority of the USD Index is made of Euro so what is the USD doing and we can use that as a mirror image …man, what a target zone on the USD!

FX Currency update

last post on US Dollar Index: https://bartscharts.com/2021/02/22/usd-index-close-to-a-big-move-up/

well, it’s certainly getting interesting.

watch the levels shown on the GBP and the EURO and USD Index to get a feel for what might be coming this week.

IF we hold these levels then expect dollar strength .. EURO and POUND weak.

IF we FAIL on these sell patterns for the EURO and the POUND then the dollar will take a pounding and go right into the level we have been waiting for what seems like a LONG LONG time … stay tuned tonight.

personally, WAITING and have a “hunch” that the levels will fail (USD weakness) and go forth and attack the lower level shown on the USD Index which is the SAME level equal to EVERY move lower in the USD in the past 30+ years. worth waiting for … don’t you think?

EURGBP update

last EURGBP post: https://bartscharts.com/2021/04/01/eurgbp-2/

at this point, to protect a position, if you have one open, move stop to entry level at .8475.

you can see the “polarity” principle in play where the support in the spring of last year is now acting as resistance in the spring of this year …. hmmmm.

anyhoo … I’m looking for an initial target to take some off in/around 8850.

note the 38.2 and 50% retracements, largest measured move correction (dashed red line) and he polarity principle again but this time highlighted by a darker/bolder red. why? this level held as support for MONTHS and when it finally gave away, it gave away big …

note, depending on the form of the correction (if it even stops here) I might be looking to add on a pullback into the 8550-8600 area.

USD Index – close to a BIG move UP?

if you have been following my blog, you’ll remember the big measured moves that were around when the dollar was carving out THE low. they have appeared/are appearing again. w/ a wrinkle … using “basic” monthly cycle tools you can see that we have a BIG cycle coming in this month which lines up w/ the measured move target zone a little lower in the index. this could be a BIG DOLLAR MOVE higher ….

below you’ll find the chart that started the dollar bears growling and stopped the dollar bull in it’s track. the form, proportion and balance are amazing and exact. take time to study this chart

the time and price symmetry of the latest high on the USD Index

since then, the USD Index has basically been carving out what looks like a flat correction and then higher … you can read prior posts to see if this was an A-B-C correction or 1,2,3,4 (in work/finishing) and then higher in a big 5th wave. we are getting a little below the end of wave 1 which breaks a rule if your a purist but it sure looks like we are bottoming. then, the last chart is an intraday chart showing a possible mathematical derivation of wave length based on fibo relationships that could get us into the target zone … so, stand by, as this is a BIG level coming up on the USD.

notice the dashed black and blue arrows, they are exact measured moves and then note the long term cycle that is hitting this month

2 hour intraday chart showing wave relationships that could get us down into the target zone .. used equality of wave 1 and 1.618 wave 1 to project.

Math we like … EUR vs JPY

believe it or not, I learned to trade as a SPOT Fx dude ..no kidding. No stocks, no futures, no ETF’s out of the Navy I jumped right into the INSANE world of SPOT FX …

I still trade the SPOT MARKET … I’ll check out the majors, then the crosses and see what’s the scoop. no kidding, I once heard that ALL the world bonds and commodities and stock markets would have to operate for 90 days non-stop to match the liquidity of ONE DAY on the Currency Market. YEW …

in this case we have a currency pair as the EURO vs the Japanese Yen. chart goes up the Euro is stronger. chart goes down the Yen (versus the Euro) is stronger … it’s as simple as that.

I’m cruising the charts waiting to get locked down in CA and saw a neat chart to my eye. I just started working this chart and …boooooom … we find a level as depicted.

Let’s make this easy, when we have a LOT of math in a really TIGHT area we HAVE to take a swing at the bat … now, that being said, that is some nice thrust from the 121.62 area but I think that last thrust up was the end of a flat correction. so the recent wave down, should (trust my count or not 🙂 not sure I do or I don’t to be honest 🙂 ) go to our targeted BUY ZONE. Say 120.50-121.

let me know if you have any questions on how the levels were derived …

oh, in the spot fx world, w/ SO MUCH math in one area, I usually give myself 30 pips below – max- for my stop out. w/ the liquidity of the FX and the math as shown, go down to a 1 minute chart for the entry .. seeing these levels hit, instantaneously watching the reaction and to think that w/ a home computer and some PATTERN work the entire world STOPPED selling EUR vs JPY and started BUYING EUR vs JPY. still amazes me … I’m always surprised to see this insane way to look at anything rational about the markets work from time to time ….

good weekend to you – Bart

STOXX – ugh

I’ve been following STOXX for a friend overseas and I truly hope that he and his family and friends are OK w/ all this craziness going on …hat tip, friend.

here’s the link to the STOXX posts on my site: https://bartscharts.com/?s=stoxx

net-net, my friend contacted me a couple years ago and asked about European Banks and, in particular, the STOXX. it was hard to email him back because what I saw – which unfortunately was proven to be correct was a multi-year triangle that had been forming since 2009. it’s ramifications? well, the STOXX WOULD go to new lows and, more than likely, ACCELERATE the move lower because … that’s the nature of moves out of triangle. in my world of using crayons, I have no idea, nor do I care ‘what’ caused the market move one way or the other. there are ALWAYS a thousand reasons. for me, it’s a pattern that helps one manage risk and help one determine how much $$$ to risk and then pull the trigger.

Here’s the updated STOXX chart:

I went back and captured the daily chart showing the target zone … two years ago, chart below:

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