watch the levels shown on the GBP and the EURO and USD Index to get a feel for what might be coming this week.
IF we hold these levels then expect dollar strength .. EURO and POUND weak.
IF we FAIL on these sell patterns for the EURO and the POUND then the dollar will take a pounding and go right into the level we have been waiting for what seems like a LONG LONG time … stay tuned tonight.
personally, WAITING and have a “hunch” that the levels will fail (USD weakness) and go forth and attack the lower level shown on the USD Index which is the SAME level equal to EVERY move lower in the USD in the past 30+ years. worth waiting for … don’t you think?
at this point, to protect a position, if you have one open, move stop to entry level at .8475.
you can see the “polarity” principle in play where the support in the spring of last year is now acting as resistance in the spring of this year …. hmmmm.
anyhoo … I’m looking for an initial target to take some off in/around 8850.
note the 38.2 and 50% retracements, largest measured move correction (dashed red line) and he polarity principle again but this time highlighted by a darker/bolder red. why? this level held as support for MONTHS and when it finally gave away, it gave away big …
note, depending on the form of the correction (if it even stops here) I might be looking to add on a pullback into the 8550-8600 area.
if you have been following my blog, you’ll remember the big measured moves that were around when the dollar was carving out THE low. they have appeared/are appearing again. w/ a wrinkle … using “basic” monthly cycle tools you can see that we have a BIG cycle coming in this month which lines up w/ the measured move target zone a little lower in the index. this could be a BIG DOLLAR MOVE higher ….
below you’ll find the chart that started the dollar bears growling and stopped the dollar bull in it’s track. the form, proportion and balance are amazing and exact. take time to study this chart
since then, the USD Index has basically been carving out what looks like a flat correction and then higher … you can read prior posts to see if this was an A-B-C correction or 1,2,3,4 (in work/finishing) and then higher in a big 5th wave. we are getting a little below the end of wave 1 which breaks a rule if your a purist but it sure looks like we are bottoming. then, the last chart is an intraday chart showing a possible mathematical derivation of wave length based on fibo relationships that could get us into the target zone … so, stand by, as this is a BIG level coming up on the USD.
believe it or not, I learned to trade as a SPOT Fx dude ..no kidding. No stocks, no futures, no ETF’s out of the Navy I jumped right into the INSANE world of SPOT FX …
I still trade the SPOT MARKET … I’ll check out the majors, then the crosses and see what’s the scoop. no kidding, I once heard that ALL the world bonds and commodities and stock markets would have to operate for 90 days non-stop to match the liquidity of ONE DAY on the Currency Market. YEW …
in this case we have a currency pair as the EURO vs the Japanese Yen. chart goes up the Euro is stronger. chart goes down the Yen (versus the Euro) is stronger … it’s as simple as that.
I’m cruising the charts waiting to get locked down in CA and saw a neat chart to my eye. I just started working this chart and …boooooom … we find a level as depicted.
Let’s make this easy, when we have a LOT of math in a really TIGHT area we HAVE to take a swing at the bat … now, that being said, that is some nice thrust from the 121.62 area but I think that last thrust up was the end of a flat correction. so the recent wave down, should (trust my count or not 🙂 not sure I do or I don’t to be honest 🙂 ) go to our targeted BUY ZONE. Say 120.50-121.
let me know if you have any questions on how the levels were derived …
oh, in the spot fx world, w/ SO MUCH math in one area, I usually give myself 30 pips below – max- for my stop out. w/ the liquidity of the FX and the math as shown, go down to a 1 minute chart for the entry .. seeing these levels hit, instantaneously watching the reaction and to think that w/ a home computer and some PATTERN work the entire world STOPPED selling EUR vs JPY and started BUYING EUR vs JPY. still amazes me … I’m always surprised to see this insane way to look at anything rational about the markets work from time to time ….
net-net, my friend contacted me a couple years ago and asked about European Banks and, in particular, the STOXX. it was hard to email him back because what I saw – which unfortunately was proven to be correct was a multi-year triangle that had been forming since 2009. it’s ramifications? well, the STOXX WOULD go to new lows and, more than likely, ACCELERATE the move lower because … that’s the nature of moves out of triangle. in my world of using crayons, I have no idea, nor do I care ‘what’ caused the market move one way or the other. there are ALWAYS a thousand reasons. for me, it’s a pattern that helps one manage risk and help one determine how much $$$ to risk and then pull the trigger.
Here’s the updated STOXX chart:
I went back and captured the daily chart showing the target zone … two years ago, chart below:
Note, Darth Vader and the Dark Side connotation with the mouse image below ….
My biggest LOSSES were back in the day trying to trade the FED Decision in the spot currency markets. There I said it.
What I came to realize, for me – maybe not for you – is its addicting, adrenaline filled adult version of Cowboys an Indians. I can’t even begin to estimate the number of people frantically clicking their mouses for BIDS and ASKS and seeing the easy money then evaporate into the losses but then turn into winnesr and then losers and then, ultimately, closing the position at the market and saying – “great I made money” or “I am so thankful I am out of the market.” Come on, admit it, if your a trader you’ve more than likely jumped into the cage with the gorilla’s juggling dynamite. (OBTW, the dynamite is lit – which means, it will BLOW UP)
Go ahead, click that mouse at 2 EST and you might as well be throwing money up into the center of a tornado with an insane idea that you know where the money will land. (hint: you don’t)
How big is the Spot FX currency market?
(note, at any given time the “retail” market is able to trade roughly 1.5-1.8 trillion)
so, what do you do? well you plan … you play “if-then” and look to enter the market long after the chaotic swings. Trust me, this takes discipline, letting 200+ pips move go in whatever way they are going to go and – sit on your hands.
#3 – as a discretionary trader and somewhat impulsive personality – I have a rule of life: DO NOT TRADE W/IN ONE HOUR of any major fundamental news announcement. NO MATTER HOW BIG THE MOVE.
I’m not trying to preach here – I’m reiterating my gameplan for today at/around 2 EST. Bottom line is there is no gameplan – I’m NOT going to trade a FED RATE announcement. I will watch the chaos like a sniper and prepare my next move … why?
Well, as you can see over the past couple posts the USD is at/approaching a crucial juncture. I honestly don’t know which way it will go but we have MAJOR patterns on the EURO, POUND, YEN, AUSSIE, KIWI that need to work themselves out. The EURO has been in a trading range for a YEAR. It’s also showing some similarities to the bottom that was formed in November 2000.
So, the charts below are going to be my gameplan for post-FOMC tonight around the Asian open.
CHEERS – Bart
deeply oversold – the most ever since 2000
consolidation occurring like 2000. should resolve soon
RSI butting up against resistance (polarity)
note the RSI has “recovered” but isn’t in the oversold region of the past rallies – it has “recovered” with no real move UP – it’s consolidating.
note the contracting triangle
EURO DAILY: here’s my gameplan for the EURO in a nutshell
the PATTERN shows a consolidating triangle. they occur in 5 waves a-b-c-d-e and the “wave” relationship should be .618 of the preceding wave. the “bc” wave has done that and we have a very nice pattern for “cd” in/around 1.0644-1.0720.
would like to see that hold w/ a move up into “e” to complete the sequence.
IF we break hard to the downside and the pattern is broken then “assume” that “e?” was the end of the consolidation and get short looking for a daily close below lower trend line as confirmation.
IF we break strong to the upside then look for “breakout targets” and watch price action in/around these areas. If continually strong and a DAILY close ABOVE 1.171 then TRIANGLE THESIS IS WRONG. Adjust
If you read this blog you know that we’ve been a dollar bull, for a while. Great … how do you make money from that? Do you simply step into the fray and short the EURO right here right now OR do your rules require you to wait for a PATTERN to appear … my rules are the latter.
so, you’ve seen some “support” areas ID and, while they worked for a bit, they were all taken out, eventually. SO I WAIT …
this AM, some craziness about ECB, rates cut, QE ( I like QEE – quantitative easing European), deflation and blah blah blah. who cares ….
let’s find a pattern for support and MAYBE BUY this puppy up into the 1.32-3400 handle. Or, just wait for the bounce and sell pattern to appear.
either way, here’s my latest attempt.
I’m pulling out fundamental frequencies and arcs/waves/music … the Voo Doo is in full grunt (reference flying fighters – full afterburner = full grunt) and am now looking for the 1.3000 handle to offer support. We’ll see …don’t read too much into the charts. Just think of a ROCK hitting the WATER and depending on the velocity and weight of the rock hitting the water WAVES will appear and those waves are mathematically defined by their periodicity, frequency and period. Folks, same goes for the market …
Believe it or not …
if you don’t believe this lie is true, ask the blind man as he saw it too! http://strobowave.com/index_7.htm
note in the chart below, we define the rock hitting the water as the initial impulse move down. from there we can calculate the fundamental frequency and come up w/ a target. that is the horizontal blue line ….
since WAVES are being produced we can now project those waves for price and time targets. how do we do that … we use the POLARITY PRINCIPLE. expand the initital impulse arc by fibonacci (music), sacred geometry (1-5, square roots, inverse of those square roots) and the equal octave scale of music. the KEY is to use past ARC resistance and support and look for the future areas transposed on the arcs as you project them. as technicians we “usually” use horizontal support and resistance. we are basically doing the same thing but w/ a twist … we are using the natural plane of the markets movement (X,Y,Z) to see the waves and therefore musical polarity.
Summary: perhaps, it’s my background as a Naval Aviator for 11 years. I just read a post about “fighter pilots and organizations” and one of the points was the art of the debrief. so, as I post “stuff” on this blog I attempt to make it all “real time” because those snap shots allow me to “adapt and overcome” (my favorite Naval Aviation saying) and see where we are in the game plan moving forward.
Cliff notes: the first target we had for the dollar index has been taken out but we have another target, shown below, that “should” cause resistance/pull back. Folks, this thing could break wide open and explode (reference HD pattern) but I’m looking to “enter” and will wait for a pattern to form so I can MANAGE RISK. I will not “just enter” and put a random stop “there” …. no, I will wait and wait and wait and wait and wait till the pattern appears. So, here’s another one below:
Euro makes up, roughly 50%+ of the index so what is going on there ….?
how about the Swissy …?
how about the GBP vs USD?
YEN vs USD …. nice little pattern up here (note NK225 yet to hit .786 and make higher highs …)
USD vs CAD — either a flat to end at 1.0850 or lower. Key is simple .. WATCH FOR 5 WAVES TO UNFOLD DOWN and then BUY at/around levels indicated for another run …
Aussie vs USD ….
the post below is from February 13, 2014 and I believe it’s important to rehash the most recent moves in the US Dollar. Believe this move has room to go, however, we need to patiently wait for a corrective pattern to form.
this move in the dollar is real so try to get long in the most risk adverse manner possible. as you can see from the post below as the 79 level was repeatedly getting tested I did, admittedly, start to question my strong dollar scenario. that was surely one ugly level for a while but I do think the dollar will strengthen into the low 90’s target that we have been calling for.
take your time and go thru the post below …some AMAZING geometry. Also, remember, ALL of my charts are REAL TIME w/ no backward look .. they are as I saw it.
February 13, 2014
Early in my career I had the wonderful opportunity to get training from Joe Di Napoli (www.fibnodes.com) Highly recommend learning some of his techniques but, most importantly, his understanding of the market structure and the players in the game. One of his favorite sayings is we must realize that “you are entering into a world where the market is truly a caged gorilla juggling dynamite and – the dynamite is lit!”
Additionally, if you have been reading this blog you’ll realize it’s focused 1) 100% on PATTERNS and 2) it’s unique value is tying PATTERNS into the circle of life (fixed income, equities, commodities, FX). W/in the context of the circle, the gorilla is the Foreign Currency Market. According to the Bank for International Settlements – the preliminary global results from the 2013 Triennial Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange and OTC Derivatives Markets Activity show that trading in foreign exchange markets averaged $5.3 trillion per day in April 2013.
The Dollar Index is somewhat important as it represents a basket of 9 currencies – the Euro representing a vast majority of it at 58%.
For all intensive purposes – it’s been “stuck” in a 4 cent range but PATTERNS suggest we are “prepping” for a big move … so, in order to get a “feel” for where we MIGHT be let’s go back to the “beginning” at 71 ish and work thru to present…
CLIFF NOTES: the BULLISH thesis is that after the 5 waves down from 121, a 3 wave (at a minimum) corrective pattern should ensue (A-B-C) and therefore the bounce has farther to travel. Additionally, it could mark a MAJOR low and we are starting back up for 5 waves. The BULLISH consensus for the US DOLLAR is that this move UP is not complete. Please see this chart below … and, notice the EXACT move up from the PATTERN shown above at the “2 or B” level.
so where are we now? Without showing an “elaborate” count, we can see by the chart below that we smacked right into a “big picture” .618 price projection that had it’s genesis from the 71 price low.
here’s the possible bullish count from the “2 or B” low that shows a POTENTIAL 3rd wave underway. IF the count is correct, then the 79 level has to hold and is very crucial as it suggest that the 3rd wave should begin …soon and UP we go.
now, we need to drill down one more time frame – that of the 240 minute chart to see what we have going on. YES, we have a BULLISH PATTERN on the US Dollar at 80.05-80.08. In order for this entire thesis to be correct, then I believe this pattern needs to hold for the strength in the US Dollar to begin…
PATTERNS fail …they are an EDGE and over time they have been statistically proven to give us an edge. But, what if this pattern does fail? Take a close look at the following two charts … I have not shown this before, but we need to take into account the 5 wave move down from 121 and the .618 price projection — they are starting to form a huge B wave triangle. The 5 wave move into the low is a BIG BIG A and then current structure is forming a BEARISH TRIANGLE w/ the ‘c’ portion just completing (due to the exact nature of the .618 price projection) and ‘d’ and ‘e’ to come …also note the purple trend lines. One forms a head and shoulders and the other is showing the support for the US Dollar since the ‘b’ wave low …
here’s one last thing to consider …. take note of the measured move UP move from the past and what happened after it completed … a bearish omen?
w/ the deflationary forces present, the dollar SHOULD strengthen. A well formed count supports that and a PATTERN very very close also holds that thesis as correct and positive. The first is the once completing at 80.05 on a shorter time frame and then 79.53 on the daily. They need to hold – w/ the 79.53 as the major pattern if the bullish thesis is correct. Remember, w/ our rules we could go all the way down to 79 again so, for all intensive purposes the 79 level is the line in the sand. We have two symmetrical BUY patterns present …
HOWEVER, if we lose the 79.53 level THEN it will open up some serious selling. PATTERNS will then shift to the B wave triangle thesis …
Last, we have MAJOR patterns complete across the indices and they are “acting” like the double tops that formed in 2000 and 2007. We have the Dow Jones Transports finishing a pattern from the late 1800’s, we have a potential generational low in interest rates complete and PATTERNS suggest one more wave lower in the commodities …
It’s all coming together and one of the circle of life gorilla’s is going to drop their stick of dynamite and big old explosion is going to occur …
CLIFF NOTES: per our last post, the EURO found support in the area we were watching. (note – it went a little below so what I did is use the equal octave scale of music note A – 1.68179 extension and .68179 projection for the “exact” level where the pivot took place.) Now, believe this move does have lower to go so we’ll go to a lower time frame and look to see where the pullback should/likely end. Recommend a short again ….probably around Tuesday/Wed
will wait to project potential corrective height after Sun/Monday … believe we do have time for the pullback pattern to develop.