Dollar Index … here we go

Dollar Index … some big picture considerations.

it’s been almost 3ish years since I posted on the Dollar Index. My last post was the chart below and what’s shown are the many many time and price synergies between the current time and, well, 30 years ago. this chart nailed the high in the dollar and I’ve been watching it just seeing what type of FORM and BALANCE and PROPORTION the index would take … ummm, I still really don’t know but what’s important is the kazillion dollar COVID question – was the “high” a C or a 1. Folks, this is a HUGE deal.

so where are we ….? i don’t know where you are BUT I know that I’m somewhat confused …. is it wave 3 and we are correcting wave 4 or was that an A-B-C correction from 2008 and we are at THE MOST IMPORTANT POINT IN THE US DOLLAR INDEX right here, right now?

for the EWT purest out there, the top in 2017 around 103 is really dependent upon the correction into the 88-89 area. for the bulls, we know that wave 4 cannot overlap the end of wave 1. we don’t close below the end of 1 but we do go thru a little … man, are we cutting hairs here …? we do have the RSI transition into bullish zones but here’s all we need to know. we can’t go below 88-89 because then 4 goes below 1 and we have something else going on …..

the bears …? it’s almost a textbook zig-zag correction and the symmetry in time and price from the last BIG correction (1992-2001) is PERFECT in time and the harmonic .786 of that last big correction make the bears … hungry? The RSI resistance breakout doesn’t help BUT note how low the last rally was … again, the key is support. If we break the dashed green line … this puppy might be diving into the red sea, so to speak.

I DON’T KNOW …but here are two charts that spell out the “big picture” bear case and the bull case … either way, I suspect we’ll know soon.

Bart

the ratio has HUGE support

can’t believe it’s been since mid-april since I posted about the market. at the time, I spied a triangle forming which proved to be wrong and it broke down and the market has continued it’s advance. humbling for sure .. when I was working up the triangle thesis I came up w/ the level that’s shown below but, honestly, I shrugged it off. “it’s not going to go all the way down there, I thought .. ” but I do remember saying, “if it could get down there, then what a perfect spot to short the market.”

folks, we are there … don’t hold me to it BUT I have around 12 reasons that this is HUGE support for the XLP/NYA ratio. don’t need to go back over the importance of this ratio … for a summary when ratio goes up risk is off and when ratio goes down risk is on. UP = bad equities. DOWN = good equities. so support should mean bad equities.

put/call ratio at an extreme, sentiment at an extreme and MONSTER support on the XLP/NYA ratio. probability says support holds and equities top and start back down … all for now. let me know if you have any questions.

disclaimer: this is ALL probability but we now have a very well defined street sign. the market COULD blow right thru the level below and it’s a rocket ship takeoff higher … that is also a probability.

so, play it safe … if it bounces strongly in / around this area then short BUT if it closes on, say a weekly basis, below the defined target area w/ conviction then be long. but for NOW, would wait and see which way she goes. hope this helps.

be safe out there …. Bart