the ratio … what’s it saying

…. ratio has exploded but appears we are running into stiff resistance

if you want to take a peak at what we’ve been doing w/ the XLP / NYSE Index (Staples/overall market) then search for XLP on the site at the top right of the home page …we very clearly saw the ratio bottom and start back up (which means, on a relative strength basis that staples were starting to outperform (negative for equities)) back in late December and January. what is fascinating to me is the STRENGTH and VOLUME of the candles of late. frankly,they are blowing away the candles from the 2007-2009. it sure looks like, from the ‘big boy lens’ (hedge funds, relative value funds, institutions, etc.) that they are moving into the safer names (staples) in a BIG WAY. I trust this ratio because, as you can see, it’s been responsible for guiding the MAJOR tops and bottoms since the XLP ETF was created back in 2000.

per the chart below, we are in uncharted waters … however, note the blue rectangle areas. if we take these areas and then look at the NYSE Index that I just blogged about earlier THEN we could very well see a sustainable bounce (note I did not say end of the dumping) but a bounce … so, pay attention to the level on the NYSE Index and also the blue rectangles below …

the XLP / NASDAQ ratio complete a BUY pattern …updated 05/19/2019

05/19/2019 as you can see below, the buy zone was defeated by just a bit but, ultimately, it proved to be good support and the ratio is going UP which shows a risk off mindset w/ regards to the institutions. keep an eye on this ratio as it’s very important and can give us a heads up w/ regard to the overall health of the market.

I put the MONTHLY chart in there to show the much bigger pattern that completed at the lows.

02/28/2019 update: well, the target area shown in the original post was shown and held, somewhat. as the bouncing around started to happen from January 22, 2019 till Feb 21, 2019 it certainly created a nice triangle from the classic EWT. a-b-c-d-e and a resumption of the downtrend. We have rallied a little bit after the breakdown from the triangle (they usually occur in 4th waves – a guideline NOT a rule) so we have either finished or have one more sequence lower to finish – what I believe to be a zig-zag like correction.

if this analysis is correct, then we will bottom NOW or a little lower and the ratio will start to rise.

what does that mean? it USUALLY means stocks will start to sell off.

we are at a key/crucial juncture ..charts below

to show you the ‘power’ of this ratio, I’ve updated a 4 hour intraday chart of the xlp/nazzie ratio (candles) and the nazzie INVERTED (blue line) to show the synchronicity and how well they shake and jive together. note: every inflection point is timed almost exactly. THAT IS WHY THIS RATIO IS SO KEY and HELPS WITH RISK CONTROL

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if you have been following me for a while you will know that I really trust PATTERNS and also ratio’s w/ the patterns.

in this case, we have a near PERFECT BUY pattern on our XLP/NASDAQ ratio. Which means, the Staples (a source of risk off for the institutions) ‘should’ start outperforming the NASDAQ from a relative strength basis which ‘should’ cause the NASDAQ to sell off .. IF and ONLY IF the PATTERN works. As you can see below, we have two levels to watch (the one we are at right now) and then one a little bit lower …

my guess (as I NEVER know which pattern will or won’t work) is that the next sell off will occur ‘here’ or the other target a little lower. if we blow thru them w/ power and they fail then it might be game on again .. but let’s not get too hopeful yet. let’s see what our patterns do on the ratio first …

Bart

BUY pattern on the ratio

note the NASDAQ is inverted (blue line) in this depiction

One of the most important charts out there … R A T I O P O L A R I T Y

11/20/2018 – so, this ratio is running the show right now.  if you read the below NONE of this should be a surprise as the PATTERNS worked and the XLP/QQQ buy pattern has taken off, causing a risk off mindset and the NAZZIE to get blasted.  That being said, all is not lost. While I do think we have some more carnage to come, ultimately the ratio is going to smack right into a very strong trend line and the technical analysis concept of POLARITY should cause support or THE bottom for a GREAT BUY.  The chart below should give you and idea of why the area labeled ‘resistance’ should offer strong support for the institutions and offer a great BUY of the Q’s and technology.

let me know if you have any questions.

B


 

10/21/2018

note the ratio .. we have a pretty nice bullish engulfing pattern on the ratio which is precursor to potentially further weakness.  If looking to BUY the Q’s would definitely wait for a nice sell pattern or overhead resistance to be hit before stepping in …certainly appears to have some room to run.

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here’s the QQQ on a daily time frame w/ the target zone denoted. sure looks like another wave of selling should be starting to complete a 5 waves sequence.  Is that A or 1 … if A, then a rally should occur followed by more selling and then a BUY. If 1 then we have, potentially, a lot more downside to come.

I do not know or care which it is ….1 or A.  Just looking for a pattern.

Also, doing a monthly log below to look for key trend line support or breaks.

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In July, we noticed this pattern completing. Yes, we went 3 points thru but the RATIO held and popped big time today.  Watch the median line shown below on the XLP/QQQ and see if price goes thru the line then the sell off could continue.

Thanks!

Bart

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monitoring this ratio closely …

CLIFF NOTES: sector rotation is a fact of life …we’ve shown how the institutions follow a well defined script and how, usually, energy is the last shoe to drop before the inevitable correction (it’s different this time) occurs.  ratio’s are important because they show relative strength of something versus something.  In this case, we have the XLP (consumer staples) over the broader S&P 500.  The thesis – in times of volatility/risk off – there is a move to consumer staples and the consumer staples become stronger …the NUMERATOR (XLP) is stronger than the denominator (S&P 500).

CLIFF NOTES 2: the line below is the S&P 500 and at EVERY top since 2000 (labeled w/ a blue rectangle and the word “top”) the ratio bottomed.  What’s interesting is the new highs in the S&P 500 were not confirmed by lower lows in the ratio.  That’s something to monitor and watch….note, we do have a MONTHLY signal reversal candle present so, monitor this ratio closely ….

XLP / SPX is candles and line is S&P 500
XLP / SPX is candles and line is S&P 500

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important ratios – revisited

For those who have been following me since I started this summer, you’ll find I spend considerable amount of time analyzing the RELATIVE STRENGTH of the STAPLES vs the S&P.  Why?  The theory is that, in times of volatility and/or bearishness the “big guys” (read: institutions) will rotate into a defensive posture such as staples.  We need “staples” to live … water bottles, food stuffs, toilet paper, toothpaste, etc.  This does not mean that they won’t go down it simply means they are stronger from a relative strength basis.  If the ratios is GOING UP then volatility and bearishness is taking place … if the ratio is going DOWN then “good times” are here and, generally speaking, it’s BULLISH.  Where I take it to another level is in the pattern recognition … by using advanced pattern recognition techniques across the entire circle of life I try to develop a thesis and then deploy capital in the most risk adjusted manner …

here’s a list of some of the staples work:

http://bartscharts.com//?s=staples

  • the week of October 07, 2013 we have an AMAZING BUY of the ratio that was precise in both PRICE and TIME.  It hit, the market sold off but it was subsequently taken out and the PATTERN FAILED.  End result: BULLISH for the stock market.
  • it was also noted, that the .02 level was a potential target.  at the beginning of the new year this target was hit and, while it held intraday it has been subsequently been defeated.  In my mind, I try to stay away from intraday spike highs or spike lows …however, if we get a weekly close below a pattern level THEN, probability says it’s a failed pattern. Take a look at the below chart … we have a weekly close below.  End result: BULLISH for the stock market.
  • so … while we aren’t too far below the level depicted (1.27 and .786 overlap – usually strong support) I can tell you we need to get back up above and close above on a daily basis that level OR this S&P move could continue.
  • also, I put my trust weekly 14 period RSI in to check out the “zones” for it’s support or resistance … I went back as far as my data would allow and I can tell you that 1) we have bullish divergence on the DAILY chart and on the weekly this is the lowest the RSI has ever been.

note, do we have two patterns failing on the important XLP/SPX ratio?
note, do we have two patterns failing on the important XLP/SPX ratio?

 

note at major turns, the ratio gives a good idea of inflections ... it needs to turn up (xlp/spx) for the bearish case
note at major turns, the ratio gives a good idea of inflections … it needs to turn up (xlp/spx) for the bearish case

the other ratio we have looked at is the Walmart Greeter ratio … same thought process, except this is a single stock.  The “whole world” loves WMT so if the volatility comes back, THEN, the “big boys” will rotate to that defensive hallmark of Walmartians.  Guess what, it completed it’s pattern TODAY and, should go any lower …if the bear case is to be credible w/ our ratio’s.  Here’s the last post on the Walmartians:

the WMT greeter and inflection points

Walmartians relative strength vs the SPX
Walmartians relative strength vs the SPX

 

pattern complete
pattern complete

 

PUNCH LINE: these patterns are complete.  for the bears to have a chance, they SHOULD NOT fail …..