DJIA 3 drives to a top pattern Monday 11/30/20

the two charts below are showing 2 three drives to a top pattern … the timing shows Monday 11/30 as the key date.

this chart is a 15 minute chart and showing the “three drives within a three drives” … kind of like Inception “dream w/in a dream w/in a dream” I guess ….

there are some higher targets but I would consider a daily close BELOW the gap area shown to be important for the bull case.

Banks – HUGE support

Banks are very important to the overall health of the market … key support approaching! monitor closely …

blogged about the banks a couple weeks ago here: https://bartscharts.com/2020/09/09/banks-where-are-they/ since then, they have continued to lose strength and now the Banking Index has a very important BUY pattern which should hold and the ratio of the Banks/NYSE Index has key support a little bit lower.

banks lead us up and lead us down so these areas below are KEY to strength of the overall market. bounce here/little lower on the ratio and we should stabilize. if we cut thru these levels w/out a whimper and continue lower then i would expect continued pressure down the line …

Banks – where are they?

there is an old adage – the banks lead you up and lead you down. the market has blasted to old all time highs or thru them and the banks…? well, they rallied a little but have not shown the strength of the overall market, especially technology.

let’s keep a close eye on them over the coming days and weeks … important.

here’s the support charts that I posted back in the past to show the patterns at work – it has NOTHING to do w/ me. I just pull out the crayons and try to find the patterns. keep it simple.

this chart was finding support at the “first” level after a pretty liquidating sell off from 112. pay attention … a LOT of math and patterns coming together. One of the key aspects of the chart below (if you have read this far) is watching for former FAILED PATTERNS.

as you can see, that level worked and the banks rallied … I apologize for not having the SELL pattern but I never posted it. Do you see it? After not making it above the 117 level it sold off big time … and, using some math and patterns we found a support zone ….

in the chart below I show you the SELL PATTERN on the banks. YES, this is after the fact and I DID NOT post this at the time but wanted to show 1/the harmony of this index and 2/ the pattern for illustrative purposes. the other reason for posting this is to demonstrate the bank rally off the March 2020 lows has been feeble …

and as we can see, the banking index / NYSE Index is tepid, at best. really don’t think the banks are too healthy right now …

NVDA Musical Polarity and the Vesica Pisces

I was asked to look at NVDA and, while it hit a nice top at/around 575 I usually don’t like to do post like these because it’s a “could have, would have, should have” type of post but I wanted to show some readers the GEOMETRY working w/ NVDA.

In this case, we picked the first “major” correction and that becomes our initial arc .. folks THAT MOVE DOWN SIGNIFIED BY THE RADIUS OF THE BLUE ARROW IS THE ROCK HITTING THE WATER AND IT PUTS OFF WAVES ….those waves are, essentially, vibrations and they are governed by music and sacred geometry.

have done a ton of post on the square roots and the inverse of square roots and how they tie into the frequency of string.

when using arcs, circles the same concept of polarity applies so after the initial arc is drawn we EXPAND THE ARC by musical notes and sacred geometry ratio’s and we look back into the past to see where support or resistance (depending on the direction your going UP or DOWN) is present. In this case, we can see that expanding by musical note A of the equal octave scale of music is exactly the bottom of the price that coiled and consolidated and then lit the cans and took off!

so, w/ the polarity principle in mind – S becomes R and R become S IF the bottom of the circle (in this case) is support then the top should (doesn’t have to ..) be resistance. thus far, it has been resistance.

the other thing we need to notice is .. it’s also a 1.618 price projection …

NVDA is cooling its jets …

Now, see the AB=CD in/around 412? WATCH THAT LEVEL CLOSELY as a potential target as …. price likes to go back and tag the AB=CD if/when it blows thru that failed pattern … also, note, from a “price” correction the largest measured move correction takes us right down to the AB=CD

since I already had the circle drawn I went ahead and did the Vesica Pisces and then rolled those vectors to price .. they can also be done w/ price. remember PRICE = TIME.

XLK / XLP – still has major resistance just a little higher!

we had a sell off on the ratio a couple weeks ago BUT there was not follow thru and we still have the lingering level just a little higher which is the real test … again, until we have a strong weekly close above this level I’m in the conservative/flat camp as far at the NASDAQ and Technology goes …

the ratio has HUGE support

can’t believe it’s been since mid-april since I posted about the market. at the time, I spied a triangle forming which proved to be wrong and it broke down and the market has continued it’s advance. humbling for sure .. when I was working up the triangle thesis I came up w/ the level that’s shown below but, honestly, I shrugged it off. “it’s not going to go all the way down there, I thought .. ” but I do remember saying, “if it could get down there, then what a perfect spot to short the market.”

folks, we are there … don’t hold me to it BUT I have around 12 reasons that this is HUGE support for the XLP/NYA ratio. don’t need to go back over the importance of this ratio … for a summary when ratio goes up risk is off and when ratio goes down risk is on. UP = bad equities. DOWN = good equities. so support should mean bad equities.

put/call ratio at an extreme, sentiment at an extreme and MONSTER support on the XLP/NYA ratio. probability says support holds and equities top and start back down … all for now. let me know if you have any questions.

disclaimer: this is ALL probability but we now have a very well defined street sign. the market COULD blow right thru the level below and it’s a rocket ship takeoff higher … that is also a probability.

so, play it safe … if it bounces strongly in / around this area then short BUT if it closes on, say a weekly basis, below the defined target area w/ conviction then be long. but for NOW, would wait and see which way she goes. hope this helps.

be safe out there …. Bart

Gold / Oil :update 04/10/20

little higher for a very important target on the ratio of Gold/Oil

04/10/20 – our target level hit and, if you look closely below, you’ll see 5 waves down .. followed by 3 waves up into a “perfect” SELL PATTERN for the ratio. IF this pattern works (the big if) then expect Crude to strengthen against gold and, perhaps, keep the oil rally going for a little while longer.

one of my readers asked me a question on Gold/Oil ratio. below I have charted SPOT gold / futures oil (continuous contract) – wow, pretty amazing move … take a look at the 1.618 projection target a little higher. that ‘should’ (operative word) cause some resistance. additionally, if we keep this parabolic rise in the ratio then the 12 level on oil doesn’t seem to far fetched, does it? thanks again Ray for the ping … great question and observation. that’s what I see .. hope it helps. Bart

XLP/NYSE Index ratio – BUY

this ratio xlp/nya is a GREAT guidepost .. buy pattern complete. if it holds and starts back up expect selling to being again .. KEY LEVEL

for those who follow this blog – remember – it’s all about PATTERNS and I try (operative word) to remove any subjective analysis from the mix. PATTERNS work and sometimes they don’t …

additionally, you’ll see here – https://bartscharts.com/2020/03/23/xlp-nya-ratio/ that the XLP/NYSE Index ratio has been a good guidepost for BIG inflections UP and DOWN for the equity market.

today, at the low on the ratio, we completed a BUY PATTERN. we do have a little lower for other targets to get hit but, essentially, we have a BUY PATTERN complete and, if it works (operative saying), THEN the selling should resume …

if it fails, which it certainly could, then this is a very bullish development and the rally will continue .. patterns like this, when they fail, are usually face rippers so time to hold on and see which way the market Gods would like to go …

XLP/NYA ratio …

ratio slowing it’s advance .. pay attention for “trade” like support …

we have a pretty big ‘wick’ up at the all time high on the ratio and closed w/ a doji today at the level that’s basically equal to the close on Friday. Basically, even though we were down 500+ the ‘fear’ subsided w/regards to the Staples/NYA ratio. this lack of follow thru is telling .. is the low in place, yet. I HAVE NO IDEA but I do trust this ratio .. until we CLOSE ABOVE the blue rectangle area on a WEEKLY basis I’ll move to a neutral stance in the equity market for now … trading bounce (not necessarily a long term investment buy) appears to be working into the vernacular …

the ratio … what’s it saying

…. ratio has exploded but appears we are running into stiff resistance

if you want to take a peak at what we’ve been doing w/ the XLP / NYSE Index (Staples/overall market) then search for XLP on the site at the top right of the home page …we very clearly saw the ratio bottom and start back up (which means, on a relative strength basis that staples were starting to outperform (negative for equities)) back in late December and January. what is fascinating to me is the STRENGTH and VOLUME of the candles of late. frankly,they are blowing away the candles from the 2007-2009. it sure looks like, from the ‘big boy lens’ (hedge funds, relative value funds, institutions, etc.) that they are moving into the safer names (staples) in a BIG WAY. I trust this ratio because, as you can see, it’s been responsible for guiding the MAJOR tops and bottoms since the XLP ETF was created back in 2000.

per the chart below, we are in uncharted waters … however, note the blue rectangle areas. if we take these areas and then look at the NYSE Index that I just blogged about earlier THEN we could very well see a sustainable bounce (note I did not say end of the dumping) but a bounce … so, pay attention to the level on the NYSE Index and also the blue rectangles below …