Tag: NFLX

NFLX update

last post on NFLX: https://bartscharts.com/2021/12/13/nflx-3/

in that post we did some “basic” work using EWT going w/ Wave 1 = Wave 5 and some “basic” retracement work. as you can see below there was a LOT of math and geometry coming into this level … fundamental frequencies, square root targets, geometry, extensions, etc. all made this an “interesting” area for sure.

where are we NFLX?

if you go back to a couple posts of NFLX you will see that I called it a “chart of the year” because of the very “ray charles” like count of 1,2,3,4,5. we blew thru the target zone by 3-4% probably because my ego got the better of me in coming up w/ that title (digression complete) but either way, we completed 5 waves up into 700 … and we just completed 5 waves down.

what is so important about that?

5 waves either complete a corrective C wave (they are ALWAYS 5 waves) and now we bounce OR they could show a change in trend. certainly believe it’s way too early to be calling for a change in trend for NFLX but our thesis, for now, is the 700 level was a potential big top. so, w/ 5 waves down we need to pay attention.

anyway, our targeted zone held as support (note there are at least 9 different methods showing this to be a good zone of support) and it appears our rally is on … from an Elliott perspective, a guideline (NOT a rule) is that a counter rally will go to the vicinity of the previous 4th wave of a lesser degree and we can see a LOT of math coming together in that zone/area. I do believe that area will work as resistance but I “expect” that the higher target will ultimately be the rally point as this entire NFLX bull run has had a lot of momentum …

so, for now, let’s see how this PATTERN plays out and watch the 625-630 area and also 650-660 for now …

note the fundamental frequency and square root targets
geometry and extensions
two zones to watch for now .. would like to see an ‘a-b-c’ type of EWT rally into one of these zones …somewhat in ‘no-mans-land’ right now …

also, note below, that Palladium also hit the target zone and found support …

Palladium rallies .. so does tech … so watch a potential really in Palladium also …!

bottom line – this rally “makes sense” and the math worked … so now, we WAIT and look to put a short on NFLX in the coming days or weeks.

thanks for reading and rock on, ok?

also, got a 4/3 wetsuit today … it’s just got plain cold in the Pacific and with a long period swell and a favorable tide, I could stay out there ALL DAY but cold got the better of me …

get some!

NFLX

post on NFLX: https://bartscharts.com/2021/10/19/chart-of-the-year/

the target zone ID’d in the post above missed the target by 5% but has been selling off the past few weeks …

a VERY clear 5 wave count is present so I’ve done my best as providing some “guidelines” to formulate a gameplan.

the “thesis” is that we have completed 5 waves up on NFLX and are correcting based on that move …

a lot of times, not always, 5=1 and that comes in around 580 .. .we would like to see that hold and bounce up in 3 waves to prepare for a short … so, hold your powder dry and I expect, in a few weeks, it might be time to put your toe in …

UNG – Natural Gas – catch the next wave?

last post on NAT GAS / UNG: https://bartscharts.com/2021/11/01/ung/

the game plan/strategy is to BUY the first PATTERN in a “new” trend and if it works then probability is that the trend change is real …

Energy, Ags, etc. are exploding of late and GLOBAL shortages that are becoming apparent pretty much every day are REAL. so, if one thinks (trade what you see not what you think) that Nat Gas prices are due to continue to rise then we have UNG that will give you exposure.

if we break thru the low at 13 then I would consider this a failed pattern but we have some MAJOR support coming in/around 15 for the BUY to get long nat gas and, perhaps, hold this position for a LONG time …

it’s all probability folks …

below, you will see a MONTHLY on UNG since inception. wanted to post this chart so you could see why I wrote the above .. have we broken out in Nat Gas? have we begun a new bull trend? full disclosure, I’m long UNG down in the single digits and will be looking to ADD to my position at this pattern completing – if it ever does.

take note of the volume picking up and the fact that the RSI is at it’s highest level .. the key here, in the coming ongoing pullback, is where the RSI finds support … if we find support on the BULL ZONE (around 40ish) then we can start giving our change in trend some more probability … but, for now, we are speculating that a very investable low is in place .. don’t throw the farm at this one .. nibble at it … as we will see the breakout occur and there will be more time to get LONG if the “low in place” thesis is correct.

additionally, the “length of the base equals the price target potential is also nice here .. we’ve been basing for 6 years and, if you want to split hairs probably 10 years once that low was put in place 2012. bottom line, if this things goes higher, it’s going to go ….

another way to check trend is via long term LOG charts .. LOG’s help you understand rates of change and are very good at giving first hints of big changes in trends or inflections …in looking at this on the long term log scale, certainly appears to have broken the long term log trend line …

last, when you are building a position, it’s wise to see how “strong” or “weak” that security is compared to high fast flyers .. in this case, for no other reason than randomness, I chose UNG/NFLX.

yup, Natural Gas has out performed (on a relative strength basis) NFLX for all of 2020

there you have it …

manage the risk.

Bart

NFLX

last post on NFLX: https://bartscharts.com/2021/10/13/nflx-abcd/

as you can see, the NFLX AB=CD failed by, roughly, 4% and w/ this price point one would have some pretty big exposure if playing single shares ….. I considered that PATTERN failed.

that being said, it was a PRETTY HUGE pattern (hence I called it chart of the year) so I went back and looked at the “form and proportion” of this move up into the high and I saw on a daily that we had some more “count” to go and a projection smacked us right into the high (for now, it’s all probability)I realized my ego got in the way here, putting something out like “chart of the year” … I can’t stand when NFL or NBA players make a big deal out of play … why would I fall into that trap? my apologies.

that being said, this is a pretty big target zone so I do think we need to take this top seriously. however, a REAL change in trend would be a MONTHLY CLOSE BELOW 600 as shown below on this DAILY NFLX chart.

in order to fully understand the SRC or Signal Reversal Candle please pay attention to the chart below:

as you can see above, the SRC is a MONTHLY close below 595. a REALLY conservative play … however, you could do an intraday 60 minute SRC or daily, weekly, etc. it all depends on your risk tolerance.

perhaps a BIG pullback is in the works for NFLX?

Chart of the Year …

there was and still is (for those who have the PRIVILEGE to do it) something so amazing about the feeling of going BONS (Boots On Non Skid) of a US Naval Aircraft Carrier.

it wasn’t a ‘bravado” thing as people would believe from the characterization of Naval Aviators but – for me – it was simply amazing. being on the flight deck as engines were turning, the ship was moving and everyone from 18-50 (?) was moving in elegant and frictionless dance .. it was that amazing.

and when you walked up to your jet and there was an AMAZING YOUNG SAILOR (note no identity needed because WE DID NOT CARE) told you your jet was ready you simply took it as fact .. how cool?

so you would jump into the jet and get this multi-million dollar tax payer funded rocket ship ready for the catapult shot and – I believe EVERYONE – asked themselves before Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride “have I done enough to manage the risk” and “yes” was always the answer and for me … BOOM I shot off the pointy end of American Diplomacy. What an amazing privilege and honor.

what does this have to do w/ NFLX? EVERYTHING ….

folks, we have an near perfect AB=CD, a 1.618 extension into the target zone … and, at least for me, an Elliott Wave count that breaks NO rules is present on multiple degrees …

maybe it’s time to PUT your money where your mouth is Bart when we reach the 650-660 area?

chart of the year folks …

xoxox – Bart

so … who is eating who?

last post on current market conditions: https://bartscharts.com/2021/10/17/sometimes-you-eat-the-bar-and-sometimes-it-eats-you/

if your someone trying to get short – sure looks like the bar is eating you …if your trying or are long looks like you are eating the bar … man, this is interesting.

1/ as a PATTERN recognition expert I can say that the PATTERNS for selling equities FAILED over the past two days.

2/ as an intermarket musician I try to look at everything ….

3/ so lets do that ….

  • the PATTERNS have failed
  • Palladium really looks like another leg down … Palladium down has been equated to NASDAQ down and, to a certain extent, equities down
  • NFLX … man, that pattern is REALLY close …
  • Banking Index – again, a MASSIVE pattern a little higher …
  • XLP/NYA – certainly might have BROKEN DOWN (equity strength) of the 7 month channel …

so what do we do ..

me?

sitting on my hands and looking for a simultaneous 1/NFLX target hit and 2/ BANKING INDEX hit and 3/ XLP/NYA target hit and then SHORT the NASDAQ w/ a vengeance ….

until those 3 criteria are hit I’ll continue to lick my wounds on MJ 🙂 but … seeing the “numbers” come together for NFLX makes me think I might have to break out my timing work … as a side note I recommend you go and BUY Connie’s book (novel, war and peace) the 32nd Jewel .. it’s mind blowing and I’m only on the 3rd chapter because I find myself against a wall and then I go and “find” (I wonder how I find them) books on number theory and Planks constant and inverses and … the rabbit hole just spirals so I’m reading Robert Edward Grant’s “Philomath” and – total mind blown – but it’s helping me go back to Ms. Brown’s expose and the TIME factor becomes understandable but – it’s still elusive in nature – so when I get a bunch of numbers coming together I work backwards to figure out – what- exactly – is the VIBRATION that NFLX is rolling along with …..

the KEY is the DATE of the IPO and, I think (I’m still learning) that first “long term” pullback from the initial impulse move … that is where the rock hits the water and the height of the drop, the weight of the rock , the wind, the moon, the tide and ANYTHING that is PRESENT and PHYSICAL interacts w/ the waves to create the moves we see … it’s really that simple.

IF (and trust me it’s a BIG IF) that’s the case then wouldn’t the mathematics of the ancients (note, probably you and me and anyone else present right now … ) that govern natural harmony work on the markets?

YES .. join me going deeper and deeper and deeper into the rabbit hole …

chart of the year ….
nothing “truly” goes down till the banks go down … pretty big target approaching …

NFLX

I have done another 4-5 charts on NFLX w/ varying counts and corrections – the problem (and this is what sucks about Elliott) is they all “might” be right … but, they are CORRECTIONS in an ongoing BULL market so I’m going to just leave this stair step chart up and then leave the rest of the charts off the blog for now … believe we won’t miss out (FOMO) but we need another week or so to see where this puppy is going …

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