the Crude Oil Complex

charts suggest a near term low in place for crude and a bounce (a bounce only) to be expected …

note the correlation of Crude, OSX, Loonie vs USD, Crude/Gold Ratio

note the largest and consistent percentage decline is exactly hitting …. 77.46%

Loonie Double Bottom with Crude at percentage decline (?)

if this chart moves up then so does Crude …
topping …?

Crude, Chevron (CVX) and Exxon (XOM)

one more wave of selling appears to complete 5 wave sequences across the board …

net-net appears that this bounce will be followed by another wave of selling .. then, some VERY nice targets appear. would maintain patience until lower targets are hit for a LONG opportunity

Crude – BUY PATTERN in/around 52-53

like the EEM … big support here. if we lose it, look out below …

note, the 15 minute and 240 minute patterns … it shows the fractal nature of the market and, in this case, we have a pattern (15 minute (orange w/ dashed black outline) w/in a BIGGER 4 hour pattern (light blue)

kind of cool, I guess.

B

Crude Oil Update, ratio of XLE/NYA, HYG and Crude and a bunch of other stuff

11/10/2018 – overall, our key 75-76 level was hit and has caused the sell off. take a look at the charts below …

some critical developments:

  • the XLE/NYSE Index ratio has hit a perfect BUY PATTERN so expecting the energy complex to bounce/hold/consolidate as this level holds.  IF IT FAILS then the sell off will be pretty immense. So watch t his level.
  • on the Crude, anytime you have a .382 and .618 (.382+.618 = 1) present that should act as important S or R. In this case SUPPORT. we have some polarity present also so ‘expect’ a bounce in Crude … will update accordingly.
  • also, note the correlation between crude and HYG. (High Yield Bond ETF) … perhaps the carnage in Crude will stop at support levels indicated which ‘should’ keep HYG at bay (if the correlation is still holding) but if Crude busts thru then that support cliff for HYG should give away and then it will get very interesting
  • also, put the oldie but goodie of the HIGH on crude on my birthday and the subsequent low to show some geometry at work and the fact that long term charts can certainly help .. .a famous quote “there is nothing new under the sun.”

thanks reading …. B

 

 

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06/03/2018 – sorry that i didn’t send out the charts below via my blog .. honestly, I think I just forgot and then went on some travel …big thing here is we hit an important high a week or so ago based on TIME so this could be a very important top in crude.

honestly not sure if we have completed a 4 ( if YES we have  BIG MOVE COMING lower) or an end to a bullish bounce and we are correcting to buy ..

either way, this should do it for crude for a while at least. will be watching and, again, apologize for not blogging earlier.

as an FYI, the charts are real time they were just sent out via email …

let me know if you have any questions.

Bart

this is the update as of 06/001/2018:

Crude Oil Approaching BIG low …update to the update to the update

12/06/2017  – looks like we are smacking into some large resistance from a time and price perspective. here or a little higher should do it for Crude for now.

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2/2/2017 – can’t believe it’s been over a year since I posted on crude – but I guess it has. as you can see below, the ‘math’ tagged the low in crude.

where do we go from here? well, the ‘easy count’ and that’s what I’m into says – perhaps – a little higher and then down to take out 26 ?

no way, right? You Never Know.

Bart

Continue reading “Crude Oil Approaching BIG low …update to the update to the update”

Crude BUY pattern present – update

06/30/2017 – note measured moves up (blue arrows) – would use those as targets for now. As long as loonie continues to thump the USD, then this might have legs beyond those measured moves.

B

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interesting … the RATIO of USD / CRUDE

folks, need to pay attention  here … below you’ll find two charts:

  • RATIO of $$$ / Crude Oil (continuous contract) – note the nice sell pattern that completed a couple months ago.
    • now notice … we are hanging by a thread for USD to continue to weaken against Crude
  • Ratio of $$$ / Crude oil (continuous contract) – note the nice correlation of the tops/bottoms in the ratio and the moves in crude (makes sense)

All I’m saying is perhaps .. crude is going to continue to strengthen – relative strengths basis – against the USD?

WATCH CLOSELY …

B

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Loonie, OSX, Crude – time for another inflection? UPDATE to the UPDATE

11/5/2016 – Crude Continuous is giving us a nice “heads up” that this move is CORRECTIVE in the scheme of a much larger corrective pattern to finish a big big 4.  the market corrects (most of the time) in 3 waves labeled A-B-C …in this case let’s follow the set up:

  • $26 dollars was the END of 3 of 5
  • $51 was the top of A
  • the 51.92 slight new high (NOTE WAS IN 3 WAVES) was a ‘minor’ b wave and this move lower is ‘c’ to finish the a-b-c sequence of B.
  • the ‘usual’ relationship is 1.618*a = c and note all of the ratio’s come together in/around 31.30-31.60.  THAT’s a GREAT BUY for crude.
    • Else – we could just be arcing out a FLAT and 38 holds it and if we have 5 waves down into 35.70-35.90 that could be it.
  • either way … we are moving into a very nice BUY of crude.

Until we hit that bottom .. the LOONIE will probably not strengthen and churn/burn in around these levels or a little higher. be patient, the move is coming.

here’s the ideal pattern we are watching:

wave18

here’s crude:

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here’s Loonie vs EURO and USD:

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10/24/2016 – target hit on the USD vs LOONIE.  Watch this one carefully.  It “appears” that everyone is thinking of a big breakout but, as you can see, we had multiple targets coming into play and they were hit today.

WATCH FOR A DAILY CLOSE BACK BENEATH CHANNEL OR THE .382 as shown.

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go ahead and follow this link if you want to follow some real time PATTERNS w/ technical analysis and the correlation between the 3 items in the subject line: https://bartscharts.com//?s=LOONIE

appears we are at another critical juncture:

  • Crude – 2 buy patterns present.
  • OSX – buy level indicated
  • USD vs LOONIE – multiple patterns present for another move in LOONIE strength.

again, these are just patterns folks … but we have a very clearly defined demarcation line for the next move to begin.

stay tuned

Bart

charts below, let me know if you have any questions.

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