Tag: crude oil

Crude Harmony – June 20, 2023

Finished – somewhat – moving into the new rental out here in San Diego. (I REFUSE TO BUY OUT HERE) … little bit brain dead but “something” told me to take a look at crude oil futures and that bizarre low of -40 bucks. Could that low be harmonic?

Of course not .. well, shoot, it was:

So .. what the heck are we looking at:

  • Crude Oil Monthly – LOG (key, these are percentage moves) since 1984. Couldn’t get anymore data that that.
  • The 1.3348 is a ratio (Perfect 4th) for the equal octave scale of music.
    • 1.3348AB = CD and the extension from the “old” all time low was, yes, 1.3348.
    • A good technique to use is to look at the last MAJOR retracement and see what that number was … in this case .749. TILT … well take 1/1.3348 and we get .749. The market did, in fact, give us a clue. Pretty wild …
    • The dashed blue move down? .786 the blue measured move …
    • The move up to the old all time high? 1.1892 which is the ratio for the “minor 3rd”
    • Last, and this was the “kicker” for me … using the open/close after the negative spike low … the high at 130 was exactly equal to that measured move. Nice …

Anyway, just bored so thought I would cruise the charts.

I’m looking to get long Crude OBTW …

Bart

the Crude Oil Complex

charts suggest a near term low in place for crude and a bounce (a bounce only) to be expected …

note the correlation of Crude, OSX, Loonie vs USD, Crude/Gold Ratio

note the largest and consistent percentage decline is exactly hitting …. 77.46%

Loonie Double Bottom with Crude at percentage decline (?)

if this chart moves up then so does Crude …
topping …?

Crude, Chevron (CVX) and Exxon (XOM)

one more wave of selling appears to complete 5 wave sequences across the board …

net-net appears that this bounce will be followed by another wave of selling .. then, some VERY nice targets appear. would maintain patience until lower targets are hit for a LONG opportunity

Crude – BUY PATTERN in/around 52-53

like the EEM … big support here. if we lose it, look out below …

note, the 15 minute and 240 minute patterns … it shows the fractal nature of the market and, in this case, we have a pattern (15 minute (orange w/ dashed black outline) w/in a BIGGER 4 hour pattern (light blue)

kind of cool, I guess.

B

Crude Oil Update, ratio of XLE/NYA, HYG and Crude and a bunch of other stuff

11/10/2018 – overall, our key 75-76 level was hit and has caused the sell off. take a look at the charts below …

some critical developments:

  • the XLE/NYSE Index ratio has hit a perfect BUY PATTERN so expecting the energy complex to bounce/hold/consolidate as this level holds.  IF IT FAILS then the sell off will be pretty immense. So watch t his level.
  • on the Crude, anytime you have a .382 and .618 (.382+.618 = 1) present that should act as important S or R. In this case SUPPORT. we have some polarity present also so ‘expect’ a bounce in Crude … will update accordingly.
  • also, note the correlation between crude and HYG. (High Yield Bond ETF) … perhaps the carnage in Crude will stop at support levels indicated which ‘should’ keep HYG at bay (if the correlation is still holding) but if Crude busts thru then that support cliff for HYG should give away and then it will get very interesting
  • also, put the oldie but goodie of the HIGH on crude on my birthday and the subsequent low to show some geometry at work and the fact that long term charts can certainly help .. .a famous quote “there is nothing new under the sun.”

thanks reading …. B

 

 

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06/03/2018 – sorry that i didn’t send out the charts below via my blog .. honestly, I think I just forgot and then went on some travel …big thing here is we hit an important high a week or so ago based on TIME so this could be a very important top in crude.

honestly not sure if we have completed a 4 ( if YES we have  BIG MOVE COMING lower) or an end to a bullish bounce and we are correcting to buy ..

either way, this should do it for crude for a while at least. will be watching and, again, apologize for not blogging earlier.

as an FYI, the charts are real time they were just sent out via email …

let me know if you have any questions.

Bart

this is the update as of 06/001/2018:

Crude Oil Approaching BIG low …update to the update to the update

12/06/2017  – looks like we are smacking into some large resistance from a time and price perspective. here or a little higher should do it for Crude for now.

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2/2/2017 – can’t believe it’s been over a year since I posted on crude – but I guess it has. as you can see below, the ‘math’ tagged the low in crude.

where do we go from here? well, the ‘easy count’ and that’s what I’m into says – perhaps – a little higher and then down to take out 26 ?

no way, right? You Never Know.

Bart

Continue reading “Crude Oil Approaching BIG low …update to the update to the update”

Crude BUY pattern present – update

06/30/2017 – note measured moves up (blue arrows) – would use those as targets for now. As long as loonie continues to thump the USD, then this might have legs beyond those measured moves.

B

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