10/24/2016 – target hit on the USD vs LOONIE. Watch this one carefully. It “appears” that everyone is thinking of a big breakout but, as you can see, we had multiple targets coming into play and they were hit today.
WATCH FOR A DAILY CLOSE BACK BENEATH CHANNEL OR THE .382 as shown.
go ahead and follow this link if you want to follow some real time PATTERNS w/ technical analysis and the correlation between the 3 items in the subject line: https://bartscharts.com//?s=LOONIE
appears we are at another critical juncture:
Crude – 2 buy patterns present.
OSX – buy level indicated
USD vs LOONIE – multiple patterns present for another move in LOONIE strength.
again, these are just patterns folks … but we have a very clearly defined demarcation line for the next move to begin.
charts below, let me know if you have any questions.
CLIFF NOTES: a nice TIME and PRICE pattern coming in a little lower on crude for the buy. the reason this price pattern is so key is that, since the low in 2009, NO SWING LOW has been broken (shown by the blue arrows). So, it’s going to be very key for this pattern in OIL to hold as we do not want to see that trend line attacked or the swing low (roughly 91 dollars) to be taken out.
Cliff Notes: if your new to this blog you’ll find that it’s all based on geometry and pattern recognition. If you take a look at weekly crude it’s not hard to see that beautiful support line that’s been holding crude up since September 2009. So, when I see that I say “why” and “what’s important about that from a geometrical stand point.
1. Draw a line down from the all time high on crude into the crash low in the low 30’s. That vector is aligned in PRICE and TIME and gives rise to a natural angle.
2. Get a protractor and draw a 90 degree angle. (shown by the purple 90 degree angle shown up at the top of the all time high)
3. Now just “copy/paste” the red vector lines and create squares.
4. note the trend lines that have been “bounding” crude oil (bold red lines)
5. now, be patient and watch price as these lines are “attacked” so, no matter what the fundamentals say, we have our targets and ranges to play and add in additional tools that fit your style, techniques and fundamentals.
6. get a glass of wine or whatever fits your fancy, blow this chart up and look at gaps, consolidation you’ll find there is a lot of action …
the chart below shows the Oil Services Index $OSX (candles) w/ USDCAD (inverted/line) overlaid on top …
when the blue line (Loonie) is going down it is weak. when the blue line (Loonie) is going up it’s strong …
at most inflection points, the $OSX and Loonie are synchronized nicely. however, for most of 2013 this relationship has diverged. in that, while one was going UP (Oil Services Index) one was going down (Loonie weak)
the Loonie topped a good 6 months prior to the $OSX in 2007-2008. However, once they synced they got smashed …
the 2009 bottom was well synchronized and since then they have move very nicely together.
below, we have added (black line) Crude Oil to the chart and, as expected, it is very synchronized w/ $OSX EXCEPT since September 2013. Note, the $OSX has held up, nicely. What is this $OSX?
The OSX tracks 15 large companies w/in the context of the Oil Services world …Changes in the Philadelphia Oil Service Sector Index tend to be associated with changes in the oil and gas markets, since greater exploration and construction of wells occurs when oil prices are high and less such activity is carried on when prices are lower. They were all affected by the Gulf of Mexico Oil spill …
so first let’s go thru the 15 components and look for big picture patterns – BUY or SELL.
so, as we can see, there are some nice SELL patterns coming in, there are a couple weak ones and where I didn’t post any charts there wasn’t a glaring pattern to be seen. Bottom line – I’m not seeing significant strength in the index but to elevate some of the stocks to hit their targets perhaps we’ll see some more strength. so, now we need to break down each individual component …
Crude Oil: http://bartscharts.com/2013/10/31/crude-oil-a-potential-roadmap/ this was my last post. I am still in the “look and feel” phase that the top at 147 was a 3 and the low in/around 35 was a 4. while the pattern completing at 110 was good, the thrust off this bottom trend line last week led me to see a triangle where we can see a,b,c,d,e – triangle complete and off to a new high ? CRUDE BULLISH
USD vs CAD: just a little bit higher (200 pips) we have some pretty major targets. while I am a DOLLAR BULL, also recognize that the Loonie is a small percentage of the overall index. LOONIE BULLISH (after a little more weakness)
Oil Services Index: the only thing “wrong” w/ this chart is that, a RULE of counting is 4 cannot go below 1. In this case it does, However, the Crude chart spikes thru but never closes below. so, I am keeping this count. Note, we smacked right into the .618 price projection area at/around 294 and are testing it again. the 306-307 level will be key.
So, our roadmap to follow is:
Crude – breakout of triangle.
Loonie – BUY a couple hundred pips lower
Oil Services – break thru – with strength and conviction (read volume) levels show
one last, this is something to be patient w/ …. I would not recommend jumping all over this tomorrow but wait and see these levels get attacked … the GREAT thing about PATTERNS is we now have clear lines in the sand for where we are correct or wrong. Go back to the beginning of the post – w/ that divergence between the OSX and CAD-Crude the patterns will tell us which way this entire family (Crude, OSX, CAD) will resolve. It very well could go completely opposite but not until the pattern levels are targeted. they will either work or fail and then we’ll pounce
this energy sector needs to be watched … the OSX, XOI, XLE are painting the same picture as they have gone up in the context of targets that have now been hit or are completing just a little higher. Crude, however, has been pretty weak … not widely reported is the fact that the Administration basically lifted economic sanctions on Iran so perhaps they are flooding the markets w/ their oil…who knows and that’s not for me to conjecture.
however, in the context of the S&P energy does make up roughly 10% of the index so, in order for the index to start moving lower we will need to see these patterns complete and start down. they HAVE NOT yet …but they are basically in the zone
I enjoy this chart, not only for the amazing dynamics of the math and harmony but … I’ll tell you in a minute
here’s why – it occurred on my birthday! 🙂 July 11, 2008 was the high on crude …
anyway, I have to admit that this scenario I am putting out on the blog is, perhaps crazy, but it’s an interpretation that you can pay attention to or not … the one thing I DO NOT LIKE is that first move up from one ….it sure looks like only 3 waves and, well, that can’t be right BUT in the context of the picture it fits so I am going w/ it. the other thing is wave 4 can’t overlap the end of wave 1 and well, technically, it does go threw there for a bunch of months but NEVER closes below so I’m working w/ that one also .. subjective interpretation so to speak.
so, below are the pictures that I”m working w/ … the thesis is we have a very powerful C wave in oil down that has just begun and one that will, ultimately need to bought – perhaps 6-9 months from now … enjoy.