Tag: BOIL

UNG – March 13, 2023 (update)

Last post on Natural Gas: https://bartscharts.com/2023/02/24/natural-gas-part-ii-february-24-2023/

That gap down was a bummer … but, we have found support and bounced nicely. As you can see above, any move higher will run into the wall of China above (big gap) and probably fail the first or second time. But, obviously, we want it to close up and above that entire area so that is the immediate resistance.

The “ideal” PATTERN we would like is the a-b-c EWT corrective sequence that will set up a GART BUY.

You know I don’t like to do the “could have would have should have” but there is some nice little coloring techniques/tricks in the chart above so let’s take a peak.

First thing is to note the ABCD (blue arrows) into the low .. then, we have both a .707 and .786 retracement level with a 1.618 extension. I also (which I like to do, alot) extended off the last low before the march to the high and that was a nice ratio from the equal octave scale of music : 1.3348. Then, one last, take note of the “gap area” because that defined the measured moves into the low. No kidding … then, those orange measured moves set up what? A three drives to a bottom BUY pattern. (blue triangles).

Natural Gas Part II-February 24, 2023

This morning I posted the “measured move” on the Continuous Contract Nat Gas Futures from a monthly scale.

Here is the link: https://bartscharts.com/2023/02/24/natural-gas-february-24-2023/

Measured Moves are the most underutilized YET most POWERFUL tool in our toolbox. I think people don’t use them because they clutter their charts w/ lagging, coincident indicators … moving averages, bollinger bands, oscillators, and 1000’s of other tools. Do they work? SURE .. but, just think about it, ALL of the techniques and tools we use as chartists (even the esoteric stuff) is all contained in what? THE MEASURED MOVE.

This measured move is so nice BECAUSE it’s EXACT in both PRICE and TIME.

Add that to the count shown and the PATTERN present we have a very high probability trade. Right now, we are only risking a dollar. Trust me, we have time get into this move but the longer you wait, the more your risk will increase.

This analysis is wrong and would stop out with a WEEKLY close below 7.00.

Other “proxies” are showing amazing measured move synergy … in this case, from a percentage perspective using log scale.

note, added the measured move (mm) + .618*mm to equal first leg down

Here is the “final” count I’m going w/ in regard to UNG.

Let’s add this up …

  • Futures contract measured move – exact from a MONTHLY SCALE
  • UNG and BOIL percentage measured moves – exact
  • The 1.68179 extension hit after 233 calendar days … a Fibonacci harmonic
  • ABCD hit as the same TIME the extension pattern hit
  • The “count” on the way up violates no rules …
    • Note, because the all time low clearly went thru the prior low we CANNOT label this as wave 2. The form/structure sure looks like a “B” wave …

Net-Net … this has all the markings of a VERY powerful beginning of a 2+ year move and right now the risk reward is 35:1.

Why not give it a shot?

%d bloggers like this: