Japan (again) – September 9, 2026

We have a PRETTY BIG level coming into play for the USDJPY:

I do not understand what Bessent is doing. I have one very good friend, extremely intelligent, who’s telling me that Bessent is doing amazing work. I believe him.

I have another analyst, world renown, who is saying the exact opposite. I believe him.

So, I do not understand what Bessent is doing. Here’s what I SEE ….

The YEN is has been selling off, probably causing some consternation in the carry trade peeps. That being said, we have a VERY important support zone for a number of reasons. The first being the purple measured move – the BIG moves were all governed by those measured moves. Second we have a nice ABCD that comes into the green zone followed by a confluence of ratios. Should be some nice support …

I think it was July (has it been that long ago?) that I put some charts up about the Nikkei and Yen w/ patterns that would show Yen Strength (that is happening) and the Nikkei would also sell off. That is happening along w/ the corresponding ETF’s YCS and EWJ. I erased the ‘crayon work’ that went into the charts and just put the updated charts w/ the target zone below:

Last, I still like my target down lower on the Bonds for a BIG BUY. That is what I see … That is what I will trust and execute the deployment of capital on BUT what do I believe? Well, that sure seems like a LONG WAY down, especially in this current geopolitical climate. My doubting Thomas says – would ‘they’ (who ever that is) really let the bonds go that low? Guess we’ll just have to wait and see. (Note, there are a lot of reasons of the below level – in addition to the all time low .618. “Everyone” will be saying this is the reason … well, it certainly can be but there are other ratios that are present in / around this level which make it a VERY attractive level to BUY BONDS. Also, remember, I’m counting this as a 5th wave in progress so 1/ it will be an ending wave for a good monthly to year+ bounce and 2/that means that the upcoming support zone is only that -support – as 5 waves down ‘usually’ brings a 3 wave corrective move up followed by a smashing C wave lower so … I plan on using this as an opportunity to hawk the rates for refinancing and anything that get you a good lock in before, unfortunately, interest rates go to double digits in the following years.

So, just think about what we have going on … from a true non-fundamentalist point of view:

1/ super cycle in the ‘softs’ starting – I’m long Corn and DBA 2/ a huge El Nino that is breaking records and forecasted to be the strongest on record – whatever the heck that means 3/ Straits of Hormuz – not only for the oil but also for fertilizer … then 4/ geopolitical situations, not to mention some Orbs, American Codes and blah blah blah.

The reason for my diatribe – just watching and trusting the patterns. Some work, some don’t but they will help us fit an upcoming narrative that, quite frankly, is going to be one heck of a ride.

Shaping up to be in/around 10/5-10/8 for the fireworks to begin …

Buckle Up Buttercup …

Mirror On the Wall Which Chart is the Fairest of Them All …?

30 year bond support failure along w/ a corresponding FAILED USDJPY support zone … ? Who knows but here’s what I can tell you …. one of the patterns WILL fail. Crude Sell? Yen support zone? Japan Equities, small hookup and climb higher thru the patterns? Who knows. The circle of life (fixed income, equity (global and CONUS), Fx, commodities) dances to a certain rhythm and beat. In this case, for it to continue, one of these patterns will fail. That will give us a very good idea on where we are and what we can do about it …

Note, just a pattern dude, this could end up being HUGELY BULLISH for US Equities …

I SEE the patterns, what I believe doesn’t matter. I SEE the patterns and also SEE that one of them will fail. I have no idea which one …

Bart