when I came up w/ the support levels last night I certainly didn’t think we would come down into those levels today. not the least bit BUT we did .. ugh. I watched the levels in between calls as the gap came down into our targeted support zone – actually held for a bit and then pierced the level and closed at the low of the days …
so, we’ll get out our pencil, erase, and come up w/ another level … ultimately, this drill is to define/find key support – look for confirmation that a low is in place and then WAIT for a SELL PATTERN to appear to try and get a short on .. try being the operative word.
below you’ll see the key UPTREND trend line from the all time low back in 1974 and in log scale. in fast moving markets log scale trend lines become key as they really help one capture the emotion and velocity of the moves. note we have not broken a key log trend line so the trend is still up …yes I know that is crazy, but that’s the case, for now. certainly looks as we will test that line in the coming days …
1/note RSI below on a monthly basis – we have broken support that defined support levels for the entire move up from 2009. 2/ we should target the dashed blue or orange RSI support – watch those levels. 3/ note the uptrend line labeled “key trend line” 4/ taking the “biggest” corrections ever we can see that they range from 32,38,59 percent for 87,2000-2002, 2007-2009. we are approaching the 30% decline level and right in/around this area is the .382 retracement from the all time low back in 1974. WE SHOULD FIND SUPPORT IN AROUND HERE ….
note – when using an all time low or high to derive a confluence zone its good to go back in time and use that same point and see if it was important in the past .. it was and therefore, the all time low in 1974 ‘should’ be the node to offer support .. .for now. that’s the second chart.
here’s the chart showing the key node and it’s importance in deriving support and/or BUY levels.
there are also two other posts which mention the target in Dec and then early January. resistance? yes! contagion selling? no! so, here we go …
if we take a look at the 2007-2009 correction we can find harmonics to it and go into the past (I’ve done it) and then PROJECT those harmonics on future support …that’s all the chart below is … we have some “standard” fibo’s coming in but we do have 2 ratios (that’s always good) and for me the most important point is they all land right on the key retracement points … so, very quickly, let’s watch that 10250-10400 for some nice support!
if we swing down to a daily it “appears” (see above title for hope) that we are in a 5th wave down so we ‘should’ (operative word) see a bounce here-soon. also, I haven’t updated it but am watching it like a hawk – the USD vs JPY has NOT seen new lows and if that maintains support this selling will abate.
our S&P post last week of parts I-V spelled out the overall look and feel for the S&P as we approached and eclipsed new highs … we took a look at technology, financials and energy. additionally, throughout the past weeks, we have walked thru the circle of life for fixed income, the dollar and certain commodities. Additionally, we looked – globally – at the current state of affairs for the other equity indexes. this blog post will be a quick update to where I “think” we are and some key levels to watch over the next week …
Financials: a pattern did complete at the high for XLF at 20.92. Higher targets also remain from 21.50-22.20. Would really like those “higher” targets to be attacked to get a true feel of the market but, for now, realize 20.92 could be it on the financials. if this is complete, then it does not spell “good” for the overall index.
Energy: as we showed in the last post a potential terminal target remains higher in around 97 on the XLE. However, we also showed at pattern completing in/around 85.20. that has hit and a break below 80 (weekly close below) would not spell “good” for the overall index. Crude sold off on Friday and the real test will be it’s “return to the top of the triangle trendline” to see if it bounces for the higher target shown in the past. the $XOI and $OSX are also showing weakness at targets described in the past.
Technology: I am breaking down the overall technology look into the NASDAQ index (NAZZIE). if you look back at the “technology” post from last weekend you’ll see that we still have some higher targets 30+ points away. Too early to tell if Friday was a high but would, again, certainly like the upper targets to get hit and for all three of the major components of the S&P to go down together.
I still feel that the “big guys” are going to “tip” their hand and “try” to rotate out of the high flyers and into the staples (deodorant, tooth paste, water, etc.). I am watching this ratio like a hawk. This is a perfect set-up for a BUY of the ratio which sets up a (HISTORICALLY) SELL on the S&P. That target is a little lower and, again, would really like to see that level hit/targeted.
Last, I had the WONDERFUL chance to train w/ Joe Dinnapoli of http://www.fibtrader.com a couple years ago. Wonderful training and very very important information on the “internals” of the market and it’s structure and the importance of liquidityin the world of program trading, micro trading, the bid-ask and the false injections of cash that has occurred w/in the house of cards this market has produced. Take the time to watch this series of videos: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MQed-Aqay5w I also ask you to take a look at the picture/explanation in part 2 of 5 and in/around 10:38 and 13:01 for part 4 of 5. The series is a couple years old, but still so extremely valid and important. If you read my post a couple hours prior to the FED announcement you’ll find that I correctly surmised that the QE would continue … believe it or not, sooner or later, the illiquid nature of todays market will, ultimately, put us at risk for a potentially major move. This is ONLY a probability and one that has, more than likely, a low chance of ever happening. But education around potentialities isn’t so bad, is it?
I AM NOT DESIRING OR CALLING FOR A CRASH OR ANYTHING LIKE THAT …however, the market has been propped up by trillions of dollars and, therefore, liquidity is an issue. If this is an issue then why not put some of the profits in the bank and let some or a little ride?