S&P 500 futures – update

09/12/2019 – market blew thru the pattern level and is very close to setting new highs in the ES. This represents a failed pattern … if you look we have some numbers coming in right below old high but as far as the VERY NICE sell pattern that was present – it’s cooked.

back to the drawing board to look for ANY pattern out there … no idea which ones work or which ones don’t … it’s all probability folks. going to take a look at my trusty XLP/NYSE or XLP/NASDAQ for a clue.

09/05/2019 – sell pattern complete.

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First off – all over the world – have a great weekend and enjoy family and friends.

second, we have another ‘pure play’ SELL pattern developing that could get tagged in the Asian and European markets (US markets closed on Monday)

this pattern has pretty much all the ingredients that the BUY pattern last Sunday night in Asia was hit.

we have a projection (black dashed arrows), a 1.27 extension (square root of 1.618) and a .786 retracement (1/1.27) all coming together …

also, remember square roots and the inverse of square roots ties in the frequency of a string so that’s where the numbers come from …

As Mr. Tesla said .. “to understand the universe think of terms of vibration.”

Yup – Bart

Here’s from a week ago and our last post before some travel

Here’s the update for this coming week:

Sunday night … rocking and rolling

as expected, we are rocking and rolling on Sunday night (08/25/2019) – no doubt it’s going to be an interesting day tomorrow.

as you can see, the futures did gap down, but found support perfectly on the BUY pattern at 2811. this level is key to hold overnight and over the coming couple of days ..

additionally, watch 2785-2787 for “other” support …

Trendlines

nice little trendline ‘creator’ that Michael Jenkins taught me .. when the markets start rocking and rolling I like to find out what the ‘true’ trend lines are telling us …

in this case, certainly can make the case that Mars Helio trend line has been important – just look at the chart below.

let’s face it folks, the planets put out ENERGY and leave footprints … ever listen to an AM radio during lighting (the crackling is electric/vibration interference) planets are doing the SAME thing.

they are PERFECT in their cyclic nature and the math that governs them …so, IF they put out a vibrational signature on the earth (tides, menstrual cycles, the MOONth or SATURNday, etc.) then certainly we can’t fight the fact that the subconscious of the entire world is converting longitudinal movement of our rock and the planets into number … in fact, isn’t even every hair on your head numbered? (luke 12:7)

so, we simply take a VERY important low (in this case 03/09/2009) and we add a factor that is equal in price and time. in this case TIME is longitudinal movement of a planet.

we are adding 100 degrees of heliocentric movement of Mars and 100 points of price (666+100 = 766) and where they intersect (PRICE AND TIME) we draw a trend line ..

note, this GEOMETRY has pretty much governed the entire move up from 2009 which has been 3,794 days (that number is important, but more on that later)

so, as we CORRECT ( and I do think this is a CORRECTION) we will be looking for Mars and, perhaps, other crucial trend lines to do their work …

Bart

here’s some other geometry to pay attention to … note ‘extending’ the radius arc to the other side of the circle THEN pasting trendline (mars) to it’s location on the circle nabbed the lows … I’ve added the next key trend line to watch for support …

XLP / S&P 500 – support here is justified and, perhaps, a signal of volatility to come? UPDATED 11/04/2018

11/04/2018 – back on June 09, 2018 we saw this – almost – perfect pattern hit support.  it’s the ratio of XLP / S&P 500 – we use ratio analysis to look for ‘risk on’ or ‘risk off’ mindset from the big dudes. in times of ‘risk on’ the ratio will go down as the big dudes / dudettes are not in defensive names (like staples) and when the ‘risk off’ mindset is present then the ratio will go up. i.e. the XLP is ‘outperforming’ from a relative strength perspective.  the ratio completed a harmonic BUY pattern back in June and it took another 4 months before the market topped.  one could conceivably say the rotation occurred in the summer.  I’m posting the updated chart below … try and follow the bouncing ball of CONFIRMING indicators that the ratio was bottoming ….

where are we now? as you can see on the daily below we were DEFINITELY being warned w/ another near perfect BUY pattern on the ratio 10/04/2018.  it exploded higher … I see a little more consolidation/ corrective form in the ratio an then another move higher to complete an inner 5 wave sequence.  that’s when the ‘real’ pattern emerges.  I DO NOT KNOW, yet, if this is an Elliott A-B-C corrective move (bullish for stocks) or a 1,2,3,4,5 wave sequence that foreshadows the ratio going higher (bearish for stocks) … were just going to have to chill and wait to see what unfolds.

here’s the ratio ‘dates’ on top of the S&P 500 cash.  again, somewhat in no mans land as we wait for the next BUY or SELL pattern to emerge.  But, in the end, believe the ratio gave us ample time to position our portfolios accordingly – either the bear or bull you are. I’m neither … just a pattern recognition dude using some crayons to draw cool pictures and patterns.

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there is a different look/feel to the XLP / SPX versus the XLP / NYA. If you look at the chart below, you’ll see we did a pretty tight consolidation from 2011-2016 in the XLP / SPX.  It’s a ‘perfect’ sell pattern at “C” that complete and then the ratio fell out of the sky.

i’m curious at the lack of follow thru w/ regards to the S&P 500 (not making new highs like Russell, NASDAQ, etc) so I decided to take a look at this ratio instead of NYSE as the denominator.

as you can see we have some key observations:

  • take the time to study ‘past’ retracements as ‘sometimes’ the same ratio/vibration (remember that’s all it is – vibration) is present. In this case we have the .707 retracement level present at the high and now here at the lows
    • 2
    • Square Root of 2= 1.4142
    • 1/1.4142 = .707
  • the harmonic 1.27 is present in that 1.27*AB = CD
    • 1.618
    • square root = 1.27
  • note the blue measured move arrow from the XLP inception in 1998 is present in this correction
  • the MONTHLY RSI is at the lowest level since the inception of the XLP and this ratio of XLP/SPX
  • THE TIME OF THE CORRECTIVE MOVES OF THE RATIO ARE EQUAL

what am i trying to get at? nothing more than I’m very cautious of any further up move in the markets (for now) .. .historically, when the XLP starts to perform it signals a ‘risk off mindset’ of the big institutions and volatility starts to rise …

while I DO NOT think the bull market is over by any stretch, I do think that another move lower is in tune (note the music reference :)) w/ the form, balance and proportion we are used to seeing from a corrective nature.

Bart

back at it … just got back from a week long Stand Up Surf Camp … where are we now?

amazing week in Punta Mita Mexico … after my daughter got married my wife ‘allowed’ me to take some R&R.  Worked hard for a week on my SUP skills w/ these guys: https://supnsurfretreat.com/

if you have any interest in Stand Up Paddle Surfing do this … shout out to Chris Sfor ALWAYS being patient w/ me.  If I see you out on a wave this summer I promise I’ll at least know what a line up is … can’t promise anything else. Thank you, Chris, for the push.

before that saw 3 straight weeks of travel so I just ‘checked out’ of the markets for almost a month.

came back to the charts and what do I see … a PERFECT SELL PATTERN on the S&P.  if your bearish, this is the level …

the only thing that is keeping me cautious and in a wait and see mode is the XLP/NYA ratio.  Folks, it’s in full grunt liquidation mode.  again, this ratio is a great harbinger of understanding institutional big guy mindset.  IF they are risk OFF then the ratio should be going up if they are RISK on then the ratio falls – as it is now.  note the support levels shown a little lower …until this ratio finds some stability and support I just can’t be overtly bearish….

good to be back – trust all are well.

Bart

 

 

S&P 500 logical stopping point …

03/31/2018 – I love measured moves.  Frankly I think they are 1/ the easiest and most powerful indicators we have as technicians and 2/ one of the least used.

If you remember it’s how what we used to make an amazing buy on crude as it was plunging into it’s lows … measured moves on monthly/weekly charts is good.

in this case we are looking at the S&P 500 cash.  note, since the 2009 bull run the largest correction we’ve encountered has been 14.70% in/around 2015-2016.

if we take that SAME corrective move of 14.75% and overlay it on top of the monthly we come in around 2451.

now, if we do ‘basic’ pattern recognition work we have a perfect BUY right/in around that level.  necking down to the daily (second chart below) you can see how all the numbers are coming together in/around 2451-2467. My take, IF (the big IF) this bull market has steam, then this level ‘should’ hold and we go up nicely …

now, it’s just a pattern and DOES NOT have to work – it’s just probability folks.  that being said, trends are given life and and have life taken from them w/ failed patterns and patterns that work.

as for me, this level is 1/ the same corrective move of 14.7% and a near perfect BUY pattern as shown.  makes it interesting …

Bart

 

Blackstone Group .. they always show their cards at the ‘perfect’ time …

I remember sending a client either a text or an email … don’t remember which medium but the content was basically “man, that’s going to stink IPO’ing right at a top for Blackstone….”

Just today I read that are leading the biggest buyout since the 2007-2009 financial crisis … are they a reliable contrarian indicator?  Who knows, but it’s something we might want to watch …

Thanks BX!

Bart

1×1 exceeded since inception … kaboom

12/10/2016 – ‘so just hang on to go up or down …’ – looks like it wanted to go up. note the explosive move behind the first time – ever – of going above the 1×1 since inception.  a monthly close above this line is very explosive.  BUT, I DO BELIEVE WE ARE CARVING OUT THE LARGEST TOP – EVER – in the Equity Market.  Ride this pony while you can …

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11/12/2016 – wanted to provide an update.  the ‘square out number’ isn’t static.  in fact, it changes every day. in this case, as we continue vortexing thru space we see that we are now, essentially, 2180 days since the ‘birth’ of the S&P 500.  Of note, the post election crazy rally was stopped dead in it’s tracks by 2180.  that’s the ‘key’ number right now … the market ‘wants’ to balance itself (remember: form, proportion, balance) so it’s no real surprise that the market went right up to that NUMBER.

so, what happens next? I honestly have no idea … but i do know that the market will move from these levels, usually, w/ a vengeance so just hang on to go up or down … a “weekly” close above one of the numbers tied to the square out would be bullish.  a big break down below some former support would be bearish.

for now, as we bounce around these harmonic numbers of price/time – just chill and let it make up its mind.

hope this helps.

Bart

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10/7/16 – just wanted to check in before the weekend.  below is a chart that “visually” depicts the SQUARE OUT where PRICE EQUALS TIME and the TREND LINE you can create.  In this case you can see the 1×1 is currently the REASON for the resistance on the S&P and then we simply did a 1/2 point/day and, why were were at it, a .382 point/day.  HINT – why not try “musical notes” *days since inception or all time low.  I bet, if we use, say .9438*days we’ll get close to the 2000 high and, while were are it, 1.05946*days we’ll be resistance on the cash S&P.  It’s early on the West Coast … I don’t feel like doing it. Try it yourself.

also, we are using a CONSTANT 1 point/day “velocity” (in this case we use PRICE and TIME to create the vector math) and what else moves in a CONSTANT ? (hint – look up in the sky) YES, you got it … so, while your at it, use a planet and move them a certain amount of degrees in a certain amount of time. How about 100 degrees/100 days – 1 to 1 and see what happens.

Have a GREAT weekend.

B

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08/27/2016  – looks like we are still “squaring out” the date of the inception of the S&P500 w/ this past weeks weekly close.

again, this is not “bearish” or “bullish” but a heads up that at “square outs” stuff happens … go w/ the flow.

rock on, ok?

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PATTERNS … work and they fail.

PATTERNS tell us of possible inflection points.

PATTERNS also tell us very important areas of interest to trade around ..

What if .. what if the PATTERN on the cash S&P has finished or is very close to finishing a sell signal?

That would mean we are at major resistance and the market “should” respect a PATTERN that has its genesis from it’s all time low 50 years ago….

IF the market DOES NOT respect this area and goes higher then we are really really really strong and I wold look to go LONG after a monthly or weekly close above these levels.

so, don’t shoot me- I got tons of crap this weekend for posting about the Utilities Pattern hitting (seems to be working so far) and I’m just mentioning that a “classic” AB=CD PATTERN is pretty much done on the S&P.

Pay Attention ….

Bart

PS – tons of cycles are hitting this week so just go w/ the flow and catch the wave that should begin soon.  No idea which way it goes, it’s just a pattern.  TRADE IT or NOT.

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PS — also, the you’ll note the SK&P was BORN on March 4, 1957 or 21708 days ago.  21708/10 = 2170.8.  Were only 10 points away from that price … if we close below 2171,2172,2173 etc. in the coming days the market has SQUARED OUT PRICE and TIME.  “Stuff” usually happens around those occurrences.  An FYI …

Update on the ‘birth’ of the S&P500 and Friday’s close

11/20/2016 – again, “she’s getting ready to blow” but who knows what direction, right?  Just pointing out that we did ‘another’ square out on Friday. This one, as they usually are, was perfect. Math is below on the chart.

I plan on just going w/ a Signal Reversal Candle – if going short the LOW of the candle that made the high is taken out ON CLOSE by the daily or weekly and if going long a close above 2200 (daily or weekly depending on your timeline) should suffice.

Also, the ‘price’ could grind/gravitate up a wall of worry so to speak.  but, it’s been my experience that the ‘break down’ or ‘break up’ usually occurs at one of these square out numbers.

Do well, be good and rock on – ok?

Bart

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11/12/2016 – wanted to provide an update.  the ‘square out number’ isn’t static.  in fact, it changes every day. in this case, as we continue vortexing thru space we see that we are now, essentially, 2180 days since the ‘birth’ of the S&P 500.  Of note, the post election crazy rally was stopped dead in it’s tracks by 2180.  that’s the ‘key’ number right now … the market ‘wants’ to balance itself (remember: form, proportion, balance) so it’s no real surprise that the market went right up to that NUMBER.

so, what happens next? I honestly have no idea … but i do know that the market will move from these levels, usually, w/ a vengeance so just hang on to go up or down … a “weekly” close above one of the numbers tied to the square out would be bullish.  a big break down below some former support would be bearish.

for now, as we bounce around these harmonic numbers of price/time – just chill and let it make up its mind.

hope this helps.

Bart

page_16-11-12_13-37-43 page_16-11-12_13-39-31

 



10/7/16 – just wanted to check in before the weekend.  below is a chart that “visually” depicts the SQUARE OUT where PRICE EQUALS TIME and the TREND LINE you can create.  In this case you can see the 1×1 is currently the REASON for the resistance on the S&P and then we simply did a 1/2 point/day and, why were were at it, a .382 point/day.  HINT – why not try “musical notes” *days since inception or all time low.  I bet, if we use, say .9438*days we’ll get close to the 2000 high and, while were are it, 1.05946*days we’ll be resistance on the cash S&P.  It’s early on the West Coast … I don’t feel like doing it. Try it yourself.

also, we are using a CONSTANT 1 point/day “velocity” (in this case we use PRICE and TIME to create the vector math) and what else moves in a CONSTANT ? (hint – look up in the sky) YES, you got it … so, while your at it, use a planet and move them a certain amount of degrees in a certain amount of time. How about 100 degrees/100 days – 1 to 1 and see what happens.

Have a GREAT weekend.

B

page_16-10-07_06-37-39

 

 



08/27/2016  – looks like we are still “squaring out” the date of the inception of the S&P500 w/ this past weeks weekly close.

again, this is not “bearish” or “bullish” but a heads up that at “square outs” stuff happens … go w/ the flow.

rock on, ok?

Page_16-08-27_09-03-43



PATTERNS … work and they fail.

PATTERNS tell us of possible inflection points.

PATTERNS also tell us very important areas of interest to trade around ..

What if .. what if the PATTERN on the cash S&P has finished or is very close to finishing a sell signal?

That would mean we are at major resistance and the market “should” respect a PATTERN that has its genesis from it’s all time low 50 years ago….

IF the market DOES NOT respect this area and goes higher then we are really really really strong and I wold look to go LONG after a monthly or weekly close above these levels.

so, don’t shoot me- I got tons of crap this weekend for posting about the Utilities Pattern hitting (seems to be working so far) and I’m just mentioning that a “classic” AB=CD PATTERN is pretty much done on the S&P.

Pay Attention ….

Bart

PS – tons of cycles are hitting this week so just go w/ the flow and catch the wave that should begin soon.  No idea which way it goes, it’s just a pattern.  TRADE IT or NOT.

Page_16-08-09_12-12-10

 

PS — also, the you’ll note the SK&P was BORN on March 4, 1957 or 21708 days ago.  21708/10 = 2170.8.  Were only 10 points away from that price … if we close below 2171,2172,2173 etc. in the coming days the market has SQUARED OUT PRICE and TIME.  “Stuff” usually happens around those occurrences.  An FYI …