so … who is eating who?

last post on current market conditions: https://bartscharts.com/2021/10/17/sometimes-you-eat-the-bar-and-sometimes-it-eats-you/

if your someone trying to get short – sure looks like the bar is eating you …if your trying or are long looks like you are eating the bar … man, this is interesting.

1/ as a PATTERN recognition expert I can say that the PATTERNS for selling equities FAILED over the past two days.

2/ as an intermarket musician I try to look at everything ….

3/ so lets do that ….

  • the PATTERNS have failed
  • Palladium really looks like another leg down … Palladium down has been equated to NASDAQ down and, to a certain extent, equities down
  • NFLX … man, that pattern is REALLY close …
  • Banking Index – again, a MASSIVE pattern a little higher …
  • XLP/NYA – certainly might have BROKEN DOWN (equity strength) of the 7 month channel …

so what do we do ..

me?

sitting on my hands and looking for a simultaneous 1/NFLX target hit and 2/ BANKING INDEX hit and 3/ XLP/NYA target hit and then SHORT the NASDAQ w/ a vengeance ….

until those 3 criteria are hit I’ll continue to lick my wounds on MJ 🙂 but … seeing the “numbers” come together for NFLX makes me think I might have to break out my timing work … as a side note I recommend you go and BUY Connie’s book (novel, war and peace) the 32nd Jewel .. it’s mind blowing and I’m only on the 3rd chapter because I find myself against a wall and then I go and “find” (I wonder how I find them) books on number theory and Planks constant and inverses and … the rabbit hole just spirals so I’m reading Robert Edward Grant’s “Philomath” and – total mind blown – but it’s helping me go back to Ms. Brown’s expose and the TIME factor becomes understandable but – it’s still elusive in nature – so when I get a bunch of numbers coming together I work backwards to figure out – what- exactly – is the VIBRATION that NFLX is rolling along with …..

the KEY is the DATE of the IPO and, I think (I’m still learning) that first “long term” pullback from the initial impulse move … that is where the rock hits the water and the height of the drop, the weight of the rock , the wind, the moon, the tide and ANYTHING that is PRESENT and PHYSICAL interacts w/ the waves to create the moves we see … it’s really that simple.

IF (and trust me it’s a BIG IF) that’s the case then wouldn’t the mathematics of the ancients (note, probably you and me and anyone else present right now … ) that govern natural harmony work on the markets?

YES .. join me going deeper and deeper and deeper into the rabbit hole …

chart of the year ….
nothing “truly” goes down till the banks go down … pretty big target approaching …

Sometimes you eat the bar and sometimes it eats you …

love that saying from the Big Lebowski … what a great movie.

so, here we go folks .. I’ve just ran thru the DJIA, NASDAQ and S&P 500 and ALL have sell patterns.

what does that mean? well, nothing … right? it’s all probability …

but, that’s what we play, probability …so, we have Gartley SELL patterns across the board – they will 1/ work or 2/ not work.

also, our favorite ratio is banging against the bottom of the range that it’s been swimming in for months .. but, take a look , at this lower level you will see an AB=CD, a 3 drives to a bottom and a butterfly BUY on the ratio. so, when the ratio goes UP then the market usually goes down …

we break down below our XLP/NYA level this puppy could rocket ship higher and, then again, the sell patterns work, the XLP/NYA level holds and we start selling off again …

all probability …

S&P 500 futures – update

09/12/2019 – market blew thru the pattern level and is very close to setting new highs in the ES. This represents a failed pattern … if you look we have some numbers coming in right below old high but as far as the VERY NICE sell pattern that was present – it’s cooked.

back to the drawing board to look for ANY pattern out there … no idea which ones work or which ones don’t … it’s all probability folks. going to take a look at my trusty XLP/NYSE or XLP/NASDAQ for a clue.

09/05/2019 – sell pattern complete.

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First off – all over the world – have a great weekend and enjoy family and friends.

second, we have another ‘pure play’ SELL pattern developing that could get tagged in the Asian and European markets (US markets closed on Monday)

this pattern has pretty much all the ingredients that the BUY pattern last Sunday night in Asia was hit.

we have a projection (black dashed arrows), a 1.27 extension (square root of 1.618) and a .786 retracement (1/1.27) all coming together …

also, remember square roots and the inverse of square roots ties in the frequency of a string so that’s where the numbers come from …

As Mr. Tesla said .. “to understand the universe think of terms of vibration.”

Yup – Bart

Here’s from a week ago and our last post before some travel

Here’s the update for this coming week:

Sunday night … rocking and rolling

as expected, we are rocking and rolling on Sunday night (08/25/2019) – no doubt it’s going to be an interesting day tomorrow.

as you can see, the futures did gap down, but found support perfectly on the BUY pattern at 2811. this level is key to hold overnight and over the coming couple of days ..

additionally, watch 2785-2787 for “other” support …

Trendlines

nice little trendline ‘creator’ that Michael Jenkins taught me .. when the markets start rocking and rolling I like to find out what the ‘true’ trend lines are telling us …

in this case, certainly can make the case that Mars Helio trend line has been important – just look at the chart below.

let’s face it folks, the planets put out ENERGY and leave footprints … ever listen to an AM radio during lighting (the crackling is electric/vibration interference) planets are doing the SAME thing.

they are PERFECT in their cyclic nature and the math that governs them …so, IF they put out a vibrational signature on the earth (tides, menstrual cycles, the MOONth or SATURNday, etc.) then certainly we can’t fight the fact that the subconscious of the entire world is converting longitudinal movement of our rock and the planets into number … in fact, isn’t even every hair on your head numbered? (luke 12:7)

so, we simply take a VERY important low (in this case 03/09/2009) and we add a factor that is equal in price and time. in this case TIME is longitudinal movement of a planet.

we are adding 100 degrees of heliocentric movement of Mars and 100 points of price (666+100 = 766) and where they intersect (PRICE AND TIME) we draw a trend line ..

note, this GEOMETRY has pretty much governed the entire move up from 2009 which has been 3,794 days (that number is important, but more on that later)

so, as we CORRECT ( and I do think this is a CORRECTION) we will be looking for Mars and, perhaps, other crucial trend lines to do their work …

Bart

here’s some other geometry to pay attention to … note ‘extending’ the radius arc to the other side of the circle THEN pasting trendline (mars) to it’s location on the circle nabbed the lows … I’ve added the next key trend line to watch for support …

XLP / S&P 500 – support here is justified and, perhaps, a signal of volatility to come? UPDATED 11/04/2018

11/04/2018 – back on June 09, 2018 we saw this – almost – perfect pattern hit support.  it’s the ratio of XLP / S&P 500 – we use ratio analysis to look for ‘risk on’ or ‘risk off’ mindset from the big dudes. in times of ‘risk on’ the ratio will go down as the big dudes / dudettes are not in defensive names (like staples) and when the ‘risk off’ mindset is present then the ratio will go up. i.e. the XLP is ‘outperforming’ from a relative strength perspective.  the ratio completed a harmonic BUY pattern back in June and it took another 4 months before the market topped.  one could conceivably say the rotation occurred in the summer.  I’m posting the updated chart below … try and follow the bouncing ball of CONFIRMING indicators that the ratio was bottoming ….

where are we now? as you can see on the daily below we were DEFINITELY being warned w/ another near perfect BUY pattern on the ratio 10/04/2018.  it exploded higher … I see a little more consolidation/ corrective form in the ratio an then another move higher to complete an inner 5 wave sequence.  that’s when the ‘real’ pattern emerges.  I DO NOT KNOW, yet, if this is an Elliott A-B-C corrective move (bullish for stocks) or a 1,2,3,4,5 wave sequence that foreshadows the ratio going higher (bearish for stocks) … were just going to have to chill and wait to see what unfolds.

here’s the ratio ‘dates’ on top of the S&P 500 cash.  again, somewhat in no mans land as we wait for the next BUY or SELL pattern to emerge.  But, in the end, believe the ratio gave us ample time to position our portfolios accordingly – either the bear or bull you are. I’m neither … just a pattern recognition dude using some crayons to draw cool pictures and patterns.

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there is a different look/feel to the XLP / SPX versus the XLP / NYA. If you look at the chart below, you’ll see we did a pretty tight consolidation from 2011-2016 in the XLP / SPX.  It’s a ‘perfect’ sell pattern at “C” that complete and then the ratio fell out of the sky.

i’m curious at the lack of follow thru w/ regards to the S&P 500 (not making new highs like Russell, NASDAQ, etc) so I decided to take a look at this ratio instead of NYSE as the denominator.

as you can see we have some key observations:

  • take the time to study ‘past’ retracements as ‘sometimes’ the same ratio/vibration (remember that’s all it is – vibration) is present. In this case we have the .707 retracement level present at the high and now here at the lows
    • 2
    • Square Root of 2= 1.4142
    • 1/1.4142 = .707
  • the harmonic 1.27 is present in that 1.27*AB = CD
    • 1.618
    • square root = 1.27
  • note the blue measured move arrow from the XLP inception in 1998 is present in this correction
  • the MONTHLY RSI is at the lowest level since the inception of the XLP and this ratio of XLP/SPX
  • THE TIME OF THE CORRECTIVE MOVES OF THE RATIO ARE EQUAL

what am i trying to get at? nothing more than I’m very cautious of any further up move in the markets (for now) .. .historically, when the XLP starts to perform it signals a ‘risk off mindset’ of the big institutions and volatility starts to rise …

while I DO NOT think the bull market is over by any stretch, I do think that another move lower is in tune (note the music reference :)) w/ the form, balance and proportion we are used to seeing from a corrective nature.

Bart

back at it … just got back from a week long Stand Up Surf Camp … where are we now?

amazing week in Punta Mita Mexico … after my daughter got married my wife ‘allowed’ me to take some R&R.  Worked hard for a week on my SUP skills w/ these guys: https://supnsurfretreat.com/

if you have any interest in Stand Up Paddle Surfing do this … shout out to Chris Sfor ALWAYS being patient w/ me.  If I see you out on a wave this summer I promise I’ll at least know what a line up is … can’t promise anything else. Thank you, Chris, for the push.

before that saw 3 straight weeks of travel so I just ‘checked out’ of the markets for almost a month.

came back to the charts and what do I see … a PERFECT SELL PATTERN on the S&P.  if your bearish, this is the level …

the only thing that is keeping me cautious and in a wait and see mode is the XLP/NYA ratio.  Folks, it’s in full grunt liquidation mode.  again, this ratio is a great harbinger of understanding institutional big guy mindset.  IF they are risk OFF then the ratio should be going up if they are RISK on then the ratio falls – as it is now.  note the support levels shown a little lower …until this ratio finds some stability and support I just can’t be overtly bearish….

good to be back – trust all are well.

Bart

 

 

S&P 500 logical stopping point …

03/31/2018 – I love measured moves.  Frankly I think they are 1/ the easiest and most powerful indicators we have as technicians and 2/ one of the least used.

If you remember it’s how what we used to make an amazing buy on crude as it was plunging into it’s lows … measured moves on monthly/weekly charts is good.

in this case we are looking at the S&P 500 cash.  note, since the 2009 bull run the largest correction we’ve encountered has been 14.70% in/around 2015-2016.

if we take that SAME corrective move of 14.75% and overlay it on top of the monthly we come in around 2451.

now, if we do ‘basic’ pattern recognition work we have a perfect BUY right/in around that level.  necking down to the daily (second chart below) you can see how all the numbers are coming together in/around 2451-2467. My take, IF (the big IF) this bull market has steam, then this level ‘should’ hold and we go up nicely …

now, it’s just a pattern and DOES NOT have to work – it’s just probability folks.  that being said, trends are given life and and have life taken from them w/ failed patterns and patterns that work.

as for me, this level is 1/ the same corrective move of 14.7% and a near perfect BUY pattern as shown.  makes it interesting …

Bart

 

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