Spent some time on JNK today/tonight and tried some square outs in both calendar days and planets and blah blah blah. Even pulled out the Pythagorean ABC^2. To no avail .. then, I thought I’m “curve fitting it” so I just started to do some geometry.
I’ve been sketching before I meditate based on Robert Edward Grants recommendation .. it’s pretty trippy. As you square the circle and then step back and throw some flower of life on top and then, what the heck, throw Metatrons Cube into the mix and … well … you start to see creation in an amazingly beautiful way. The perfect – form, balance and proportion.
So, using the dark blue arrow and the orange arrow near the bottom – that’s it – we were able to create a time cycle … that was from the Vesica Pisces. Then, we were able to create the “past trend channel.” I didn’t work from left to right .. I went from the Orange Radius, the Orange Circle and then created the first triangle that is too the far right. And, that’s when the trend lines/boxes were created working back up right to left. And, I’ll be darn … it WAS THE TREND CHANNEL and just follow the market in the trendlines that were created from simple squares … amazing.
Why is this important?
As I’ve blogged before – we can make a comparison to JNK BONDS GOING UP UP UP to “risk on” and JNK BONDS GOING DOWN TO “risk off” and the risk is minimized by the institutions. I monitor them … they are very important.
So, here’s the daily (artistry removed 🙂 )
it’s showing a pretty important set of trend lines …for sure. but, as I state on the chart, which way is it going to blow?
now, interestingly, take a peak of JNK w/ the S&P 500 overlaid on top of it:
not immediately obvious .. but if you look at times when junk bonds were toppingyou would see some resistance or bumps and the market could continue higher, the junk bonds would kind of stall and shuck and jive BUT when they sold off, the market was soon thereafter.
So … what I don’t like is that the JNK bonds have not rallied like the others times and, in fact, “most” of the time, when they rallied there was a big monthly “spike” or “wick” from a candlestick perspective. Seriously, I think this is an important point. If we take at look at the first low on the chart to the far left you will see multiple monthly candles leaving a wick/spike before pretty strong rallies .. now just work left to right as we see the monthly wicks that resulted in a rally for the Junk Bonds .. allowing the market to relentlessly drive higher. But, this time … just saying .. where is the wick? where is the rally? if we take a look at how ALL the rallies started you will see the wick present and the subsequent rally. Not this time.
Certainly looks like JNK BONDS should get going pretty quickly to keep the party rolling. Else, we break that daily neckline I think it’s going to hard pressed to be long equities.
So, just keep watching that daily trendline convergence on JNK bond if you want an “outside the squawk box” objective look at the health of the market.
PS – Technical Analysis 101. This chart has lower highs and until this last “bounce” it had lower lows since 2010.
PUNCH LINE: does the S&P 500 have enough gas in its tank to explode higher and bring it’s pal, the JNK BONDS, with em’? Or, do they both look like it’s been a great run and they are just going to roll over and go blehhhhhh ….
Today, monitor and watch – CLOSELY the BUY PATTERN on the US Dollar Index. That level is in/around 102.50-102.70. As you can see below, I have INVERTED the NYSE Index to give a flavor for the pivots in the equities and how they correspond to the US Dollar.
From the perspective of the S&P 500, let’s see what happens at the opening … if we take out the 3956 handle then moves to the upper two targets shown below are realistic …
Expect a rally the next couple days …perhaps a slight gap down but eventually support and then a rally should occur. Futures tonight are already providing that “commentary” so I’d expect a larger than “normal” rally due to the world is coming unglued (it is) but you know what I’m saying … “everyone” expected a blood bath tonight when the futures opened.
5 waves down complete … expect a rally into the circled area “to start” .. why “to start” – well – I would expect a large rally tomorrow if everyone has been told everything is OK and that circled area is the area of the 4th wave of a lesser degree so that’s an initial target.
But, as I typed below on the chart – the entire rally from (2) or 4080’s can be retraced and this count remains valid.
So, I’m guilty as charged in thinking this is an “easy” trade I’m shorting the market because it’s all going to come unglued !!!! TAKE THAT and you wake up and the entire thing has slammed against you. Been there done that and ..don’t everyone want to be there again.
Taking the banks and all the real stuff that are important away … Folks looks like we just completed wave 1 down of the “c’ Wave or Wave III (not sure one it is yet) and therefore a rather large rally could happen. WE WANT TO BE SHORT AT THE END OF THIS RALLY!
Hope the rally comes and it’s real and my count is completely wrong … hope is a strategy, you know?
if your someone trying to get short – sure looks like the bar is eating you …if your trying or are long looks like you are eating the bar … man, this is interesting.
1/ as a PATTERN recognition expert I can say that the PATTERNS for selling equities FAILED over the past two days.
2/ as an intermarket musician I try to look at everything ….
3/ so lets do that ….
the PATTERNS have failed
Palladium really looks like another leg down … Palladium down has been equated to NASDAQ down and, to a certain extent, equities down
NFLX … man, that pattern is REALLY close …
Banking Index – again, a MASSIVE pattern a little higher …
XLP/NYA – certainly might have BROKEN DOWN (equity strength) of the 7 month channel …
so what do we do ..
sitting on my hands and looking for a simultaneous 1/NFLX target hit and 2/ BANKING INDEX hit and 3/ XLP/NYA target hit and then SHORT the NASDAQ w/ a vengeance ….
until those 3 criteria are hit I’ll continue to lick my wounds on MJ 🙂 but … seeing the “numbers” come together for NFLX makes me think I might have to break out my timing work … as a side note I recommend you go and BUY Connie’s book (novel, war and peace) the 32nd Jewel .. it’s mind blowing and I’m only on the 3rd chapter because I find myself against a wall and then I go and “find” (I wonder how I find them) books on number theory and Planks constant and inverses and … the rabbit hole just spirals so I’m reading Robert Edward Grant’s “Philomath” and – total mind blown – but it’s helping me go back to Ms. Brown’s expose and the TIME factor becomes understandable but – it’s still elusive in nature – so when I get a bunch of numbers coming together I work backwards to figure out – what- exactly – is the VIBRATION that NFLX is rolling along with …..
the KEY is the DATE of the IPO and, I think (I’m still learning) that first “long term” pullback from the initial impulse move … that is where the rock hits the water and the height of the drop, the weight of the rock , the wind, the moon, the tide and ANYTHING that is PRESENT and PHYSICAL interacts w/ the waves to create the moves we see … it’s really that simple.
IF (and trust me it’s a BIG IF) that’s the case then wouldn’t the mathematics of the ancients (note, probably you and me and anyone else present right now … ) that govern natural harmony work on the markets?
YES .. join me going deeper and deeper and deeper into the rabbit hole …
love that saying from the Big Lebowski … what a great movie.
so, here we go folks .. I’ve just ran thru the DJIA, NASDAQ and S&P 500 and ALL have sell patterns.
what does that mean? well, nothing … right? it’s all probability …
but, that’s what we play, probability …so, we have Gartley SELL patterns across the board – they will 1/ work or 2/ not work.
also, our favorite ratio is banging against the bottom of the range that it’s been swimming in for months .. but, take a look , at this lower level you will see an AB=CD, a 3 drives to a bottom and a butterfly BUY on the ratio. so, when the ratio goes UP then the market usually goes down …
we break down below our XLP/NYA level this puppy could rocket ship higher and, then again, the sell patterns work, the XLP/NYA level holds and we start selling off again …