that was QUITE the pop today and we are getting close to resolving “one more leg lower” or was that it …
either way, my BULLISH outlook on Bitcoin remains … the chart below is the bearish option and the one I’m going w/ for now … but, we will know soon.
be ready to shift to the “low” is in place and we are advancing in a 5th wave (foot stomp) but the move should be big ..
so, in the more near term bearish you can easily see we did 5 waves down and now we are simply doing a 3 wave B move and then a BIG C wave to come …
I’ve noted a very important level for resistance .. if that holds and we start down lower then it should be impulsive and powerful (like a classic C wave) …
I want to see that “resistance” level noted above to being take out to the upside before going long. truthfully, would love the a-b-c to be in play as it will give us a better AND a rule of life is that the C wave HAS TO BE 5 WAVES (EWT) and it’s usually very violent and harmonic and pretty easy to count so when we do go long, we should have a very risk controlled entry to go long.
yes, big spike today, but don’t get fooled or too bought into the bullish case, just yet.
hope makes sense .. let me know if I’m missing anything.
lot’s of pressure on the Coin … certainly doesn’t look like the low will hold and will plunge into the 20k’s.
here’s the deal, this smells, feels (I’ve been “scrambled” (surfing term being caught inside) by a C-Wave before) and while it’s a fools game to pick tops or bottoms, I’m trying to find the pattern that will give us the best entry.
I’m long the Coin and getting some egg on my face (see scrambled above) but am going to hold to look for some support and the possible low to be in place to begin the march higher … what do we have going:
Note (3) up near the all time highs .. I REALLY LIKE when a new high is made on 3 waves. that is a classic “b” Wave into the new high and then C wave wipes everyone out – like right now.
the wave count (if this is correct) shows 5 distinct waves down from the high … a “guideline” NOT A RULE is that when 3 extends (in this case 1.618) then 1 = 5 (blue arrows into/around 23K)
a RULE is wave 4 (we are in an expanded flat wave 4 correction right now – if correct) is it cannot go below the end of 1 .. (dashed green line) around 15K. If we go thru 15k to the downside then wipe out the count and this is 100% wrong.
I threw a “basic” retracement grid up there and highlighted the blue box for a support zone that would 1/ finish 5 waves down, 2/ finish the C-wave and 3/ end (4) and then we go UP into the 70’s to start …
also, threw in the fundamental frequency targets (dashed purple lines) and also used the largest percentage correction (dashed red arrows to find the mid-20’s looks like a stopping point to give another a shot ..
today’s “Musk Induced” Sell off certainly smells like a C wave … that supports a zig-zag correction and it certainly smells like we are in a 4th wave correction … targets of low 40’s and, depending on thrust into this level forewarns of a move below into the low 30’s … we’ll just trust the patterns and the count.
but, for now, the lower targets are opening up nicely …
our last post on Bitcoin ID’d multiple patterns … multiple AB=CD, a 3 drives and a butterfly sell all in the 65-68 area. in my original post I just took a look at the chart “real time” and said 66-67 but did some work on the intraday charts and 65-68 is the zone. honestly, I wasn’t worried about being too precise because I’m generally looking for this wave to end and 4th wave correction to occur so i can BUY again. right now, I’m going to say that based on the gap down today, that we have a Wave 3 complete and are correcting in Wave 4. again, there are targets a little higher but I’m not going to worry about that now as it appears that this gap down has things going in the 4th wave correction direction.
also, note on the 60 minute chart, that we can certainly label this an island reversal and – if that is the case – then we can expect lower over the coming days and weeks.
now, am I screaming the top is in w/ the Coin? absolutely not … I’m looking to BUY again but found that the risk of continuing w/ my position outweighed the downside. now the hardest part – trying to get in a moving market. that part, for now, is TBD.
Bitcoin has made, as expected new highs and there is probably some more to go … that being said, the count has worked thus far so I’m sticking with it. always open to get the eraser out, as many of you know, but for now we are advancing in the 5th wave of a bigger wave 3.
I closed my position at 57k and have been sitting on my hands TRYING (it’s hard) to not be greedy and let the waves come to me …
as many of you do and some of you don’t I absolutely LOVE SUP Surfing and I had a board member from my non-profit (www.thesupvets.org) in this weekend and he said it was his “best day of surfing – ever.” peeps – it was amazing.
why? reading the waves on which one to take, which one will clobber you (there were plenty of those and which one is a better L or R, etc. same thing goes w/ the market. it’s all number, vibration and … well waves. the chart below is the bigger picture – updated w/ an RSI and commentary. so far, the “set” coming in looks like it could be ridden.
what do I see nearer term(note: trade what you see, not what you believe)is the following:
RSI: note the stair steps higher, in the bigger picture chart above, as this is the “transition” technicians see when the RSI finds new zones of support and resistance that correspond to a bull or a bear case. in this case – bullish longer term but we also have bearish divergence (new highs in price and lower highs in RSI) that is present in the 5th wave advance of a move … key. so, we can see bearish divergence that corresponds to a 5 wave count and, of course, PATTERNS.
the chart below is, frankly, a work of art. the synergy that is coming together is remarkable. we have, pretty much, ALL OF THE PATTERNS COMING TOGETHER in/around 66-67. AB=CD, 3 drives to a top and a BUTTERFLY SELL Pattern. WOW.
so, all this means is this level is REALLY important. if it holds we’ll probably get a BIG correction (the one I’m waiting for) OR BITCOIN WILL EXPLODE HIGHER. it’s just a pattern but man is this one important.
turned bullish on Bitcoin down around 6-7K and off it went….
the past couple weeks have been interesting as it’s been hovering around the 50-60K mark.
I’m still bullish.
as for – right now – I see another leg up to make a newer high and then a BIG 4th wave correction and then another big run higher – 100K+ not out of the question.
closed my entire position at 57k ish and now am just going to WAIT and do nothing and watch my thesis shown in the chart below work out what’s going to happen next.
Elliott Wave, as I have OFTEN said, is AWESOME – when it works. it’s hard, no doubt, but learning the corrections is key.
using the guideline of alternation, looks like a zig-zag for wave two so I’ll be expecting (not a sure thing at all – it’s a guideline) for a flat or a triangle perhaps but either way, I’m going to hold …
also, note, we have some big time volatility here … so as long as the coming correction does not go below the big blue 1 then we might conceivably correct 70% and STILL BE BULLISH.
also the BIG 3 is projected to end around 68K. it doesn’t need to get up there – at all. but that target puts a very nice 3 drive to a top in play …
while we came close to our upper targets, we never actually hit them but based on this price action I’m going to assume that we have a near term top in place for a much needed correction to relieve the steam.
this is very preliminary but I’m using the past to project into the future .. using the past “percentage” and “price” corrections (dashed red and orange arrows respectively) I’m projection DOWN into logical support areas simply because that is what worked last time …
additionally, I put a “basic” retracement grid from the ATL to the ATH. some nice synergies appearing.
once all that was done I drew some “basic” trend channels (light blue and red lines) and those can always act as support based on polarity …
plus a couple “two tree” (slang from the Navy) gaps were left on the way up so they will also act as support.
we wait … wait for the form, balance and proportion to signify that this correction is complete. the last one was almost 9 months long.
and, objectively, STRICLY LOOKING AT THE CHARTS, this sure looks/smells like 3rd of a 3rd action so I’m updating my count.
it BLEW THRU the first two targets at 23K and 34K and now I’m eyeing 43-45L and 51K
does this mean the run in bitcoin is over – I DO NOT think so.
as you can see, I believe we have higher to go, much higher.
coming up w/ targets allows one to manage risk and, potentially, pyramid for doubling or tripling of prices in the future.
what should we expect – VERY violent and liquidating corrective moves (operative saying – corrective) to give one an opportunity to ADD their to ones position.
for those w/ an equity only account here’s GBTC the Bitcoin Investment Trust. nice target hit (a 1.27 extension and 3.142 projection) w/ a pullback occurring – BUT look at the size of the candle and the appropriate volume. glad SOMETHING respected a level (LOL) but don’t think it’s the end of this wave – yet.
The notable aspect of Bitcoin is the CRUSHING of the Gartely 222 SELL PATTERN in/around 14-15k. As you have seen me blog before, failed patterns aren’t fun because IF you took the investment/trade THEN you probably lost money. But, to try and figure out “where” you are they tell you a lot. The “usually” result in explosive moves higher or lower depending on the the PATTERN being a BUY or a SELL.
As we approach new highs remember, this is a 5th wave … yes, it could explode higher and higher and higher ….but, the euphoria, the political landscape, the talking heads, the “insert something to fuel the rise here” are all going to be blathering but our job … trust the PATTERNS.
If/when we do get a nice pullback the levels of FAILED PATTERNS are usually good support or resistance depending o the type of pattern.
The 21-23K level is a BIG TARGET as it represents an AB=CD from the ALL TIME low and a 1.27 extension. It SHOULD be stiff resistance if not a big ole target.
Last, just take a second to study the 2nd chart below. Remember the CHAOS of the BITCOIN craze …? Well, if we take the point labeled “S” (start) and follow it to X then A= .786 SX. From there, just look at the relationships that were almost PERFECT in this heightened GLOBAL market. Can someone explain this to me …?