From the last post on MSFT: https://bartscharts.com/2021/09/01/msft-in-outer-space/
Tag: microsoft
Parabolic Moves
Parabolic moves are amazing … if your short and your on the wave ride it and if your riding the long wave in the emotional fueled rally then find your line and carve …just don’t get greedy.
The fact is parabolic moves never (strong statement) or shall I say ‘most of the time’ don’t end well. I’m going to show the parabolic moves that are literally rocket ships and then walk thru some of the charts from the past that show parabolic moves and their outcomes … what’s interesting is they all really do look the same …and, if you can ride out the opposite side of the tsunami it can and will come back . but do you want to eat it if your on the wrong side of the market? I can’t answer you as that is part of your PERSONAL RISK MINDSET.
I posted on MSFT a few minutes ago about it’s parabolic move and got some VERY angry and nasty messages back. I blocked those people. You see, I really do enjoy blogging and investing. I absolutely LOVE observing human nature. Why mention the past couple sentences … well, you see, I get the occasional thumbs up or comment and somebody might ask a question or two and I enjoy responding. I can see, via analytics, that a LOT of people are visiting the blog page. And, if you notice, there are periods that I go silent and then I’ll start blogging a lot because, well, patterns start to emerge.
But the fact that I got a TON of hate and mocking messages over on Stocktwits feeds more fuel to the fire that a top is approaching. Does that mean tomorrow …? Maybe? Probably not. Next week, next month? Who knows … but it is definitely getting very interesting.
In parabolic moves think of physics and Ps. Ps=sustained power. we had numbers memorized when I flew fighters for the Navy .. what altitude, airspeed, G would give you the BEST turn rate and radius to perform the jet. What sustained power could you work to max perform it …? If you went outside the box you are going to trade something …
I can blog this now because I’m a decade + out of the Navy. Back in the day, off the coast of SoCal we took the jet from 250 feet over the ocean and lit the cans (afterburner) got a ton of speed up and zooooooom up we went. Straight up bullseye (nose 90 degrees high) and we topped out above 60,000 ft. (I’ll leave it at that)
The coolest thing about topping out was the jet was STILL in full afterburner …but guess what, it just wouldn’t go any higher and then it flipped over on its back, flopped around out of control and fell like a stone. Nothing to worry about when your 10 miles above the earth but still a little erie to be honest. What happened? Well Ps went to zero. Yup .. the power to keep the jet climbing was gone. Night night, we were done …. the SAME THING HAPPENS IN THE STOCK MARKET WITH PARABOLIC MOVES.
Don’t believe me…? Hope this is more than enough examples:
Altria (MO)
note: these charts are real time as the move was happening. I try REALLY hard to not “could of, would have, should have” …..I try my best.
I have used this chart in a lot when talking to other fellow risk takers. Look how they look the same and the period between the highs is almost exactly the same from a time perspective.
I did this one for my good friend Andy @seeitmarket …it was during the mania rush that was the run up in Bitcoin. Look familiar? The key is, just like now, I was simply trying to provide a “risk based” mindset of the mania that was bitcoin ….OBTW, I’m long BITCOIN thru Coinbase and I let the entire run go because it was a parabolic emotionally fueled mania. SO I WAITED!
And, well, here is now. I kept the Bitcoin (green line) to show the bearish thump and the fact that it is coming back.
I’m not saying these companies or assets or commodities are going to zero or going out of business. I’m just objectively saying that Sir Isaac Newton has yet to be proven wrong … unless in LEO (low earth orbit) EVERYTHING comes back to earth.
Good thing this doesn’t look parabolic, at all.
MSFT – everyone reading this post learned how to make a circle form 3 points …
folks, honestly, being in the parabolic wave is quite the rush and I’m 100 percent guilty of getting out too early and I would really love it if someone told me they got in at the exact bottom and took it all the way to the top … bless you if you have! 🙂
finding tops and catching knives is a fools game … we all know that. but you can use geometry to get a clue …
so, taking what I learned in my geometry class I used three points to define a circle, found the gravity center and then use 0 price and drew my arc. it’s below.
is a top coming – oh you betcha your bottom dollar.
is my analysis of that potential top target area correct ? I have NO IDEA.
but, we can watch and wait for a signal reversal candle ….
MSFT – two long term projections complete. “Make or Break” next week …
09/16/2017 – MSFT has hit and, as of now, closed above (albeit slightly) above the long term price projection levels. Next week will ‘make or break’ in my mind this monstrous bull run. IF this puppy stops in/around here would wait for a monthly SRC (signal reversal candle) to make any move .. that’s roughly a WEEKLY close below 73. Also, threw some volume up to see if they are buying this puppy like crazy … note, the steady decrease in volume during this run …
so, it’s only probability so waiting for the euphoria/chaos to end via a SRC seems appropriate.
Monthly:
Daily:
as you can see we have TIME symmetrical 3 drives to a top and what appears to be a potential ending diagonal. note the SRC level (monthly) and also note the ‘long term’ projected price level. we are basically there …
Happy hunting … all probability.
Good weekend.
B
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06/30/2017 – end of the month, that’s not a bullish candle now is it … monitor this one closely. We do still have that upper target, but that might be all she wrote for the time being.
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06/13/2017 – “still in play” has been hit which equals a 1.27 and AB-CD on a monthly. Note, the ‘big AB-CD’ from the all time low is around 75. That could still be hit. Wait for a monthly SRC (monthly close below 68) to close or short, I believe.
Back in the saddle .. been a great time off marrying off my first daughter.
Bart
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03/25/2017 – appears we have some stalling at new all time highs. below is a monthly w/ the fundamental frequency calculated (FFreq) showing the 64-64 area to resistance. if we pull back from here, a logical first stop and perhaps a buy is around the old all time highs in the early 2000’s.
now, below you will see the weekly chart from 2009. lot’s of stuff going on so I’ll break it down:
- blue triangles shows us a POTENTIAL 3 drive to a top pattern. note the time symmetry … very nice
- the blue arrow lines show the AB=CD
- the dashed green lines show another AB=CD (that one goes up to 66 but it’s pretty much there)
- note the horizontal red line – that’s the old all time high
- on the right side of the chart, note the near perfect price symmetry
so, I can see “why” it’s stopped here. a pullback is to be expected but if we break down below the old all time highs on say, a weekly candle, then something might also be up and a bigger move lower could be in the works.
the BIG PATTERN up in/around 72-74 is still in play, but perhaps not quite yet?
stay tuned.
_______________________________________________________________
10/20/2016 – it’s hard being a musical chartist. inherently you find yourself a contrarian (which you really aren’t) because you just see patterns and music and harmony w/ form, balance and proportion. yes, I get it, MSFT is all the rage because it got to new time highs. but who was ‘talking’ about it when it was about to complete an EXACT pattern based on music and geometry (see below) in/around 13-14 dollars. nobody …also, note, the chart below showing the BUY was “real time” in that, as my faithful readers know, I try really hard to not “should have” or “would have” or “could have” on the chart ….
so, w/ the monster gap up to new highs that opens up the 72-74 area for the next pattern.
note the strength in MSFT .. .618 from Monthly charts (projections) usually cause more resistance.
enjoy.
Bart
Here is the BUY on MSFT – some amazing harmony, form, proportion and balance. Just take one second and look at that chart … no idea what is going on w/ their fundamentals and, it was quite the “crazy” time for it to find support during the 2009 thump. But … a PATTERN is a PATTERN is a PATTERN. so, here’s the BUY on MSFT issued in March 2009.
so, where are we now?
we are approaching the .618 from the all time high on decreasing volume and an overall market that “should” be correcting. Time to take some off and get ready for the next wave …in my humble opinion. (note – 50-52 is still a target.)
MSFT Microsoft UPDATED and UPDATED again ..
06/30/2017 – end of the month, that’s not a bullish candle now is it … monitor this one closely. We do still have that upper target, but that might be all she wrote for the time being.
====================================================================================================
06/13/2017 – “still in play” has been hit which equals a 1.27 and AB-CD on a monthly. Note, the ‘big AB-CD’ from the all time low is around 75. That could still be hit. Wait for a monthly SRC (monthly close below 68) to close or short, I believe.
Back in the saddle .. been a great time off marrying off my first daughter.
Bart
_____________________________________________________________________________________
03/25/2017 – appears we have some stalling at new all time highs. below is a monthly w/ the fundamental frequency calculated (FFreq) showing the 64-64 area to resistance. if we pull back from here, a logical first stop and perhaps a buy is around the old all time highs in the early 2000’s.
now, below you will see the weekly chart from 2009. lot’s of stuff going on so I’ll break it down:
- blue triangles shows us a POTENTIAL 3 drive to a top pattern. note the time symmetry … very nice
- the blue arrow lines show the AB=CD
- the dashed green lines show another AB=CD (that one goes up to 66 but it’s pretty much there)
- note the horizontal red line – that’s the old all time high
- on the right side of the chart, note the near perfect price symmetry
so, I can see “why” it’s stopped here. a pullback is to be expected but if we break down below the old all time highs on say, a weekly candle, then something might also be up and a bigger move lower could be in the works.
the BIG PATTERN up in/around 72-74 is still in play, but perhaps not quite yet?
stay tuned.
_______________________________________________________________
10/20/2016 – it’s hard being a musical chartist. inherently you find yourself a contrarian (which you really aren’t) because you just see patterns and music and harmony w/ form, balance and proportion. yes, I get it, MSFT is all the rage because it got to new time highs. but who was ‘talking’ about it when it was about to complete an EXACT pattern based on music and geometry (see below) in/around 13-14 dollars. nobody …also, note, the chart below showing the BUY was “real time” in that, as my faithful readers know, I try really hard to not “should have” or “would have” or “could have” on the chart ….
so, w/ the monster gap up to new highs that opens up the 72-74 area for the next pattern.
note the strength in MSFT .. .618 from Monthly charts (projections) usually cause more resistance.
enjoy.
Bart
Here is the BUY on MSFT – some amazing harmony, form, proportion and balance. Just take one second and look at that chart … no idea what is going on w/ their fundamentals and, it was quite the “crazy” time for it to find support during the 2009 thump. But … a PATTERN is a PATTERN is a PATTERN. so, here’s the BUY on MSFT issued in March 2009.
so, where are we now?
we are approaching the .618 from the all time high on decreasing volume and an overall market that “should” be correcting. Time to take some off and get ready for the next wave …in my humble opinion. (note – 50-52 is still a target.)
MSFT Microsoft UPDATED and UPDATED again ..
06/13/2017 – “still in play” has been hit which equals a 1.27 and AB-CD on a monthly. Note, the ‘big AB-CD’ from the all time low is around 75. That could still be hit. Wait for a monthly SRC (monthly close below 68) to close or short, I believe.
Back in the saddle .. been a great time off marrying off my first daughter.
Bart
_____________________________________________________________________________________
03/25/2017 – appears we have some stalling at new all time highs. below is a monthly w/ the fundamental frequency calculated (FFreq) showing the 64-64 area to resistance. if we pull back from here, a logical first stop and perhaps a buy is around the old all time highs in the early 2000’s.
now, below you will see the weekly chart from 2009. lot’s of stuff going on so I’ll break it down:
- blue triangles shows us a POTENTIAL 3 drive to a top pattern. note the time symmetry … very nice
- the blue arrow lines show the AB=CD
- the dashed green lines show another AB=CD (that one goes up to 66 but it’s pretty much there)
- note the horizontal red line – that’s the old all time high
- on the right side of the chart, note the near perfect price symmetry
so, I can see “why” it’s stopped here. a pullback is to be expected but if we break down below the old all time highs on say, a weekly candle, then something might also be up and a bigger move lower could be in the works.
the BIG PATTERN up in/around 72-74 is still in play, but perhaps not quite yet?
stay tuned.
_______________________________________________________________
10/20/2016 – it’s hard being a musical chartist. inherently you find yourself a contrarian (which you really aren’t) because you just see patterns and music and harmony w/ form, balance and proportion. yes, I get it, MSFT is all the rage because it got to new time highs. but who was ‘talking’ about it when it was about to complete an EXACT pattern based on music and geometry (see below) in/around 13-14 dollars. nobody …also, note, the chart below showing the BUY was “real time” in that, as my faithful readers know, I try really hard to not “should have” or “would have” or “could have” on the chart ….
so, w/ the monster gap up to new highs that opens up the 72-74 area for the next pattern.
note the strength in MSFT .. .618 from Monthly charts (projections) usually cause more resistance.
enjoy.
Bart
Here is the BUY on MSFT – some amazing harmony, form, proportion and balance. Just take one second and look at that chart … no idea what is going on w/ their fundamentals and, it was quite the “crazy” time for it to find support during the 2009 thump. But … a PATTERN is a PATTERN is a PATTERN. so, here’s the BUY on MSFT issued in March 2009.
so, where are we now?
we are approaching the .618 from the all time high on decreasing volume and an overall market that “should” be correcting. Time to take some off and get ready for the next wave …in my humble opinion. (note – 50-52 is still a target.)
MSFT Microsoft UPDATED
03/25/2017 – appears we have some stalling at new all time highs. below is a monthly w/ the fundamental frequency calculated (FFreq) showing the 64-64 area to resistance. if we pull back from here, a logical first stop and perhaps a buy is around the old all time highs in the early 2000’s.
now, below you will see the weekly chart from 2009. lot’s of stuff going on so I’ll break it down:
- blue triangles shows us a POTENTIAL 3 drive to a top pattern. note the time symmetry … very nice
- the blue arrow lines show the AB=CD
- the dashed green lines show another AB=CD (that one goes up to 66 but it’s pretty much there)
- note the horizontal red line – that’s the old all time high
- on the right side of the chart, note the near perfect price symmetry
so, I can see “why” it’s stopped here. a pullback is to be expected but if we break down below the old all time highs on say, a weekly candle, then something might also be up and a bigger move lower could be in the works.
the BIG PATTERN up in/around 72-74 is still in play, but perhaps not quite yet?
stay tuned.
_______________________________________________________________
10/20/2016 – it’s hard being a musical chartist. inherently you find yourself a contrarian (which you really aren’t) because you just see patterns and music and harmony w/ form, balance and proportion. yes, I get it, MSFT is all the rage because it got to new time highs. but who was ‘talking’ about it when it was about to complete an EXACT pattern based on music and geometry (see below) in/around 13-14 dollars. nobody …also, note, the chart below showing the BUY was “real time” in that, as my faithful readers know, I try really hard to not “should have” or “would have” or “could have” on the chart ….
so, w/ the monster gap up to new highs that opens up the 72-74 area for the next pattern.
note the strength in MSFT .. .618 from Monthly charts (projections) usually cause more resistance.
enjoy.
Bart
Here is the BUY on MSFT – some amazing harmony, form, proportion and balance. Just take one second and look at that chart … no idea what is going on w/ their fundamentals and, it was quite the “crazy” time for it to find support during the 2009 thump. But … a PATTERN is a PATTERN is a PATTERN. so, here’s the BUY on MSFT issued in March 2009.
so, where are we now?
we are approaching the .618 from the all time high on decreasing volume and an overall market that “should” be correcting. Time to take some off and get ready for the next wave …in my humble opinion. (note – 50-52 is still a target.)