09/12/2019 – as discussed below, took my lumps on trying to go long TBT. so am watching it to try another LONG (yes LONG) TBT. note the volume spike and also the 52 ish percent moves down seem to cause bottoms. also, take a look at the 30 year continuous chart … we very well could have a BIG LOW in rates. crazy, I know …
well, got stopped out trying a long TBT a couple weeks ago … the entire world is/was cutting rates and that didn’t work out too well for the home team.
but, you know what, the PATTERNS are suggesting rates are or have bottomed (I know, call me crazy) but w/ (the latest numbers) 13 trillion of bonds out there paying negative yields something will/has to give ..
back to the chart .. note pretty much every decline has been roughly 52% except for one which was 66% (52.45*1.27) and we tagged the polarity of the long term LOG trend line … nice little volume capitulation …hmmm.
also, note the foldback point … if it’s the foldback point then we are at the very beginning of, dare I type this, a big move UP in TBT.
I’m going to be in the prove it to me world and look for 5 waves up on a weekly basis before jumping in again BUT am watching this one closely.
cheers and salute – Bart