Bitcoin .. short term still favors the bears

last post on Bitcoin:

nice rally from the fresh lows in the high 20’s .. but, for now, still suggests a correction in a ongoing 5 wave C wave pattern.

if we blow thru 41358 (note futures contract – other prices may vary) on a daily close above then, more probability that the low is in place for an advance.

for now, a near perfect Gartley Sell Pattern exists in around 38-39K


Bitcoin Update – Island Reversal

last post on the Coin:

our last post on Bitcoin ID’d multiple patterns … multiple AB=CD, a 3 drives and a butterfly sell all in the 65-68 area. in my original post I just took a look at the chart “real time” and said 66-67 but did some work on the intraday charts and 65-68 is the zone. honestly, I wasn’t worried about being too precise because I’m generally looking for this wave to end and 4th wave correction to occur so i can BUY again. right now, I’m going to say that based on the gap down today, that we have a Wave 3 complete and are correcting in Wave 4. again, there are targets a little higher but I’m not going to worry about that now as it appears that this gap down has things going in the 4th wave correction direction.

also, note on the 60 minute chart, that we can certainly label this an island reversal and – if that is the case – then we can expect lower over the coming days and weeks.

now, am I screaming the top is in w/ the Coin? absolutely not … I’m looking to BUY again but found that the risk of continuing w/ my position outweighed the downside. now the hardest part – trying to get in a moving market. that part, for now, is TBD.

target zone has been hit w/ a reactionary sell off – calling 3 complete for now

note the gap down tonight validates a “bearish Island Reversal” which forecasts coming lower prices for the Coin.

Bitcoin Futures

turned bullish on Bitcoin down around 6-7K and off it went….

the past couple weeks have been interesting as it’s been hovering around the 50-60K mark.

I’m still bullish.

as for – right now – I see another leg up to make a newer high and then a BIG 4th wave correction and then another big run higher – 100K+ not out of the question.

closed my entire position at 57k ish and now am just going to WAIT and do nothing and watch my thesis shown in the chart below work out what’s going to happen next.

Elliott Wave, as I have OFTEN said, is AWESOME – when it works. it’s hard, no doubt, but learning the corrections is key.

using the guideline of alternation, looks like a zig-zag for wave two so I’ll be expecting (not a sure thing at all – it’s a guideline) for a flat or a triangle perhaps but either way, I’m going to hold …

also, note, we have some big time volatility here … so as long as the coming correction does not go below the big blue 1 then we might conceivably correct 70% and STILL BE BULLISH.

also the BIG 3 is projected to end around 68K. it doesn’t need to get up there – at all. but that target puts a very nice 3 drive to a top in play …

for now, WAIT, and let the patterns be our guide.

Update to BITCOIN (NYSE Index Bitcoin Index)

if you do a search you’ll find some interesting charts on the ‘parabolic’ rise of the BITCOIN Index.  PARABOLIC RISES ALWAYS END LIKE THIS …period.

what’s important to realize is we are balancing the energy of euphoria (a sell signal) w/ depression/capitulation (a buy signal) … so what’s important now. note the triangle is broke down from (it’s supposed to do that) and now we have some projections via percent change and some trendlines (LOG- which are key) and the vaunted .786 retracement.  why not give that  BUY shot … I’m going to be looking at that …