7/14/2018 – some nice thrust out of the ‘e’ point gives us a higher probability that the triangle thesis is working. IF correct then expect equal-above 122 to be the initial target for this leg that should go higher.
once prices get above 122 I would be defensive as triangles ‘usually’ occur in a 4th wave so this should be an end of move once we thrust above the old ATH. I’ve updated the chart w/ a longer term look at a POTENTIAL count on Disney over the comings months/years.
have a great weekend ..
Bart
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05/16/2018 – with the past couple of days thrust, let’s call the triangle complete and, therefore, over the next couple days/weeks/months expect the ATH of DIS to be taken out …. that being said, triangles tend to occur in 4th waves so a much larger pullback will occur after this run to new ATH.
this analysis is wrong IF we lose low 90’s to the downside for now.
Bart
03/17/2017 – well, I just went thru the Disney content below and, amazingly enough, most (if not all) the levels held as support and resistance BUT it appears these levels have formed a big old 30+ month triangle. Amazing, this puppy topped in August of 2015!
so, the classic triangle is 5 waves labeled a-b-c-d-e. “Would like to see here or a little lower hold and then start back up for new highs on Disney in the coming months. a close below (on a monthly basis) or lower trendline would make this analysis suspect.
a much more bullish count is potentially shown below.
bottom line is this appears to be a classic triangle w/ 5 waves a-b-c-d-e and ‘should’ move higher upon ‘e’ resolving here or perhaps a little lower
09/09/2017 – Disney is getting some attention of late and it’s been a while since I blogged on this American Icon.
Here’s an update:
- DIS monthly
- Note, the technique used to find resistance and support w/ the Adam’s pitchfork. When using the pitchfork, sometimes (it’s an art not a science) we take the 3rd point of the pitchfork all the way down (or up) to the low (or high) price forming the geometry. You can see that the pitchfork medium (blue center line) caused the resistance.
- Now, it certainly looks like Disney (DIS) should go higher after this pullback. I LOVE it when PATTERNS smack right into Square root targets which are also a square number 9*9 = 81.
- watch 81 ish as a level of support to begin another leg up on DIS. if we break that second blue line medium fork area then something is really wrong
- DIS daily
- note, the market went right up and closed the gap perfectly … it then completed an AB=CD (dashed black line) and has rallied IN A 3 WAVE SEQUENCE … EACH MOVE THUS FAR HAS BEEN 3 WAVES AND, NOTE, THIS CURRENT WAVE IS 3 WAVES (FROM 116 TO 96) … ALL 3 WAVES CAN BE SETTING UP FOR A TRIANGLE (POTENTIALLY) SO THIS AREA HIGHLIGHTED 93-96 WILL TELL US A BUNCH. If we lose this area to the downside (weekly close below the area w/ thrust perhaps) then we’ll open up the 81 level.
DIS definitely under pressure, next couple days/weeks should resolve where we are …
Have a good weekend, off to paddle board.
B
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I know, shorting Walt Disney World ($DIS) is probably un-american but just calling it like I see em’ …
Below you’ll find a chart showing the parabolic lift off of $DIS. Note, the Adams Pitchfork. I made the lower point equal to the all time low and that provides the geometry for “copy” and then “pasting” the pitchforks on top of each other. You’ll see the median line tagged the high … pretty cool technique to trade/in around. Also, take note of 4.236 (1.618^3) right around the top. It’s an old axiom that bull or bear runs “like” to go 4.236of the initial impulse move. We’ve done that …
next you’ll see the pretty darn big gap that $DIS left as it tagged it’s all time highs and then fell. The blue rectangle is the area still remaining to be potentially be filled. you can see that it went up on Friday and filled a little bit of the gap, but not all of it.
the next hart you’ll see a very nice “sell” pattern that completed on Friday.
Happy Hunting and thanks for reading …
Bart
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