Tag: copper futures

Copper … interesting

it’s all about the data folks … in this case we have a monthly continuous contract of Copper Futures. the PATTERN into the low back in 1990-2000 (yes it took 10 years to complete .. read that again – 10 years) is hard to understand w/out anymore data to the left of it’s beginning so it’s hard to figure out if the high in 2010 was a big 3 or big 5.

thus, I’m going to outline two scenarios ..one bearish one bullish.

BEARISH: replace the big bright orange question mark w/ a bigger 5. IF that is the case THEN the most recent high was completing a B wave and we have started a C wave down … C waves are freight trains of beauty and a wonder to behold .. leave nothing in their wake. stand by …

now, hold the phone, what if the big bright orange question mark is/was a 3? then, the BULLISH scenario is we just finished wave 3, are correcting wave 4 and copper is a BUY into new highs … it’s still working it’s way thru the corrective PATTERN that will appear so it’s hard to make a projection but we should NOT go below (1) as that will violate a rule …

so, for now, take note of the blue arrows .. the all time high was, yup, an AB=CD staring from May 1999. It smacked right into that …

kind of in no mans land from a count perspective due to data but expect the two red horizontal lines to act as support due to the polarity principle …

Happy Fathers Day …

also, note EEM .. smacked into a nice target zone in/around 58 and the second chart shows the daily sell signal on EEM.

minor EEM sell pattern on the daily …

last, note the synchronicization between copper and emerging markets … pretty nice correlation.

last, note the FXI (china) has NOT made new highs while Copper and EEM have .. below you can see that high/low inflection points are nicely timed by the Chinese ETF …

so, for now, expect copper weakness for the next couple weeks then we can figure out where we might be from a count. if anyone has really long term copper data please let me know.

Bart

Dr. Copper – UPDATE

Update 02/23/2021 – the “sell zone” failed but, if you do look at the chart it basically held copper at bay for approximately 7-8 weeks, then exploded higher, just like the stock market. the past couple days I’ve been posting a LOT of 5 counts and took a peak at copper and smacked right into another higher target … yes, we have some strong thrust into this zone it’s something to take notice of ….. why? If the 5 counts are actually ending then this current level is what should hold copper, it’s that simple. If copper explodes higher, which it most certainly can, then I am hard pressed to find a reason for the equities to go down.

note – WATCH THIS COPPER LEVEL!

a common relationship exists based on 1.618*the wave. in this chart just hit that target, exactly

Copper,/ below, smacked right into the “SELL ZONE” … why is Copper being blogged about? Isn’t that a “who cares” type of metal? Ummmm, no. the inflection that occurs in copper has occurred in the stock market, as shown, on every major pivot since 2009, at a minimum. /

so, this “zone” is very important …. watch copper in the coming days/weeks to get a “feel” for the overall health of the market.

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if you’ve been following my blog you know I’ll say “I love Elliott Wave, when it works…!” for Copper it certainly has. one of my first blog posts was about absolutely nailing the low at 4 by using, you guessed it, Elliott Wave.

is it going to work again … I really have no idea. that being said, if we follow the standard Elliott corrective construction, certainly looks reasonable that Dr. Copper is finishing a trend defining “b wave” and, just perhaps, a monstrous “c wave” cometh ….

Copper Script Part II

CLIFF NOTES: the probability is high that we break the key support line in/around 3.0 that has been holding copper up since 2010.

CLIFF NOTES 2: here is the link to the “Copper Script Part I” to watch how a BUY was recommended in the midst of the crash in 2009: http://bartscharts.com/2013/12/20/the-copper-script/

Note, a potential gameplan is shown by the light blue lines …

Copper Continuous Monthly
Copper Continuous Monthly

 

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