Heads up on Baltic Dry Index …
Posted on January 14, 2014 Leave a Comment
the headlines last Friday were about the US jobs report …however, there was an even more curious and eyebrow raising event occurring .. the Baltic Dry Index crashed 11.4% on Friday in it’s single biggest percentage decline on record. It exceeded it’s last record, which occurred in October 2008. When this indicator rises, all is well and the party continues. When it drops … well, you don’t hear much about it. As an FYI, the move w/in the Baltic Dry Index is the worst start in 30+ years.
stay tuned …
Airlines and the Recovery …
Posted on January 11, 2014 Leave a Comment
Over the past couple weeks I have had the AMAZING pleasure to answer numerous emails/phone calls regarding the AWESOME “pay out” of some of my buddies who fly for the Airlines. They are either buddies who I flew w/ in the Navy or classmates or, in one instance my best friend. To a person, they have all essentially asked “should I hold em’ or fold em?”
A GREAT QUESTION and one that I DO NOT take lightly ….but, as an expert at PATTERN RECOGNITION I am trying to be as objective as possible. Ultimately, it will be there decision. Here we go:
Equities: from a macro perspective, I see the US Equity market as very precarious, to say the least. just go back and read the posts that I have been providing …I am one of the few remaining BEARS out there. I have also been wrong about the Equities for about 1.5+ years. The length of this UP move has been amazing and when it ends, it’s going to be ugly. That I know … however, the SHORT of GOOG at 925 got SMOKED. The SHORT of the DOW got SMOKED … I am humbled and licking my wounds but I am not deterred. The equity market is a house of cards … until it’s blow over, run w/ it but certainly be ready to bail once the signs appear. IF YOU CAN …
Airlines: With that diatribe complete, I see the Airline Index as being a proxy for the “recovering” economy. Business Travel, Leisure Travel, Fuel prices, etc … they all play into the profitability, however, the airlines are acting like well run businesses. They have cut costs (my buds have really taken it on the chin), trimmed the fat and are lean and mean. That can’t be taken for granted … but in the context of where we are and what we do I see another 5-10% higher in the index at best before a major correction set’s in …CONCLUSION: if granted stock in the merger/bankruptcy ruling, then take a majority off it out of the market and 1) invest in tangible, scarce resources, 2) invest in you or your family w/ education or specific skill sets or 3) start a business or help someone start a business.
Also, take note, since the low in 2009, the Airline Index and Financials (ETF: XLF) have been almost 100% synced. Therefore, keep a watch on the Financials and if you see them start to crack, the probability is the same will occur w/in the airline industry.
Gents, that’s what I see … take some profit man and if your a gambler, then roll for the next 7-10% if you can and then take some profit …but, as I’ve been saying for a quarter – CAVEAT EMPTOR.
TWTR … BUY PATTERN appearing but caveat emptor
Posted on January 11, 2014 Leave a Comment
here’s the post on the fund that tracks Social Media (SOCM)
https://bartscharts.com/2014/01/04/social-media/
it is showing signs of a 5 wave top … now, we simply don’t know if this is the 1st of 5 to come or it’s the end of the emotional euphoria over social media. perhaps another high flyer can give us a sense? TWTR is showing the BEST BUY pattern of the bunch. the entire 50-56 area, w/ 54 being especially important, is key support. I have put a wave count that uses the IPO price of 26 as the beginning and then off to the races.
here’s my last two witter posts:
https://bartscharts.com/2013/11/14/twtr-first-sell-pattern-coming-into-play/
obviously, who ever got in on the TWTR IPO doubled their money so good on them … interesting to note, and shown on the chart below, is the .618 price projection of the SELL PATTERN back around 44 held price EXACTLY and then off we went. (38.81)
just like the last JPM Morgan (JPM) post – trade what you see. I see a BUY PATTERN appearing on TWTR. If it WORKS (I don’t know if it will or won’t) then we could go up and see new highs. If it fails and goes below 50, then this count is WRONG and it’s back to the drawing board.
take note of the SOCM post – it looks due for a big correction – that is – the entire space. So, just make sure to keep an eye on these levels …it’s a BUY PATTERN but I still recommend CAVEAT EMPTOR.
TWTR BUY PATTERN
Check this out- amazing whitepaper on wealth creation!
Posted on January 7, 2014 Leave a Comment
Wealth is Created in Private Markets
Had the opportunity to read this informative philosophy from Bill Militello; www. militellocapital.com A must read! – Bart
look for a close in/around 4106 on NASDAQ tomorrow …equality of TIME and PRICE
Posted on January 5, 2014 1 Comment
IF, we can get a close tomorrow in/around 4106 on the NASDAQ THEN we have an equality “square out” of price and time … 4106 PRICE and 4106 calendar days is the “reason” we are banging around this area of the NAZZIE. the LOW TIME squares out the HIGH PRICE. Just keep an eye on it …also, some MAJOR resistance that is coming from the all time low in 1974.
REMEMBER – this doesn’t have to happen. It’s just another tool and something to be aware of … combined w/ multiple confirmations PRICE and TIME square outs can be pretty powerful. Let’s watch price action this week …
4106 PRICE and TIME
long tern LOG trendline
A revisit to GOOG …
Posted on January 5, 2014 Leave a Comment
if you go back some posts you will find a SHORT on GOOG was triend in/around the 922 area based on the classic AB=CD or thunderbolt pattern. It held from May to October and then EXPLODED higher … ouch on that one.
also, if you go back some posts you’ll find the 1080 ish level was next target zone … we went higher than that but now are at another key 1.732 extension (which is a big extension – square root of 3) and it appears to be holding. NOT SURE WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN but here are some thoughts:
- MONTHLY historical volume has FALLEN since the IPO. The volume at the bottom of the monthly doesn’t lie … it has steadily gone down.
- the count shown is actually a bullish count. the largest correction w/in GOOG could take it down to 625. it shouldn’t go any lower becasue (4) can’t go below (1)
- the GAP should be targeted initially and, being 75 points wide, should offer MAJOR SUPPORT but, if the old adage rings true, it should get filled, completely. we’ll see about that.
- my contention is if that gap gets closed and broken (they are called windows in the candlestick terminology) then a vacuum into the 600 level doesn’t seem that unlikely?
- a nice, clear wave structure looks like 5 up on the daily are complete.
- note the daily RSI … we do have bearish divergence but we also have the classic M formation and when that neckline of the M gives away, it usually spells a movement upcoming. conversely when we have a W bottom, it’s the breakaway to the top that takes out the neckline and it moves (explodes?) higher.
stay tuned…forecasting a move lower on GOOG (which could be rather sizeable) but ULTIMATELY one which should be bought to make a move UP and THREW these all time highs … could take a while.
questions to me.
B
GOOG MONTHLY w/ volume
GOOG Daily w/ RSI
FXI … wonderful set-up coming. be patient ..
Posted on January 5, 2014 Leave a Comment
we have taken a look at the FXI and it’s set of “lower highs” since 2011. we have also taken a look at it’s relationship to Copper and how they have ebbed and flowed w/ synergy. what we haven’t done is step back and analyze the BULLISH case for the FXI. YES, I am posting something that could be a major BUY set up. However, it still needs to fall a good 50% in nominal terms. from 37 to 22.
why the bullish case? go back to the low in 2009? From 19 to 48 we can count 5 wave UP. In the context of wave counting that is either a wave 1 or an A wave that will form a 5-3-5 correction. labeled a-b-c. either way, we have a nice BUY in/around the 22-25 area that, if the count is correct, take out 48 and perhaps even higher.
so, stay tuned. w/ MAJOR long term patterns occurring w/ in the US and Global Equity market certainly appears a good thump could be coming but what an amazing set up to BUY…
FXI BULLISH opportunity
Social Media …
Posted on January 4, 2014 4 Comments
so, Social Media has changed the landscape of interaction on a personal, business, family, relationship and “you name it” level….frankly, I love it. that being said, it’s finishing a PATTERN and it’s time to step aside. Now, just because $SOCM has finished an 8/8 octave move and a 5 wave count doesn’t mean that it’s done for good. I just think it’s done for now …the 5 wave sequence might very well be 1 of 5 more to come. Just believe it’s RISKY to be getting in here/now. either way, here’s the patterns. Also,, note the volume increase at the end of the octave move and a “Ray Charles” count …
SOCL MONTHLY
SOCL 5 wave count complete. NOTE volume
Thelma and Louis and Fixed Income
Posted on January 4, 2014 Leave a Comment
Interest Rates are approaching the CLIFF
Thelma and Louis made this choice …
here’s a post that can allow you to catch up the saga w/in the fixed income market … whats funny is we have been SPOT ON w/ the dollar, commodities and fixed income. the equities have just kept going UP UP UP. Note, the BULLISH optimism in the equity market is HIGHER than 1987. The thump is coming to the equity ecosystem. The PATTERNS are showing it …back to fixed income –
going back 1.5 years here was one of the charts from fixed income market AT THE TOP:
long bond at the top
here is the updated chart and, note, the cliff that the LONG BOND is sitting on …
Long Bond updated 1/4/2014
we are sitting right on the cliff that has held rates at bay … I’ve used the “Pitchfork” method to help define the trend line using the “major” impulse low that started this run in 1981. the red line is a simple 1.27 expansion of the construction of the Pitchfork. It CREATED the trend line … remember 1.27 is the square root of 1.618. Also, note the blue arrow is the LARGEST measured move correction since the 1981 origin. IF/WHEN we lose this CLIFF prices should fall to the level shown …
below is a DAILY chart showing a POSSIBLE count. Note, looks like we are finishing up a 3rd w/ perhaps that break into the target shown. Here’s what we need to really pay attention to … in the past, when this trend line was hit PRICE exploded. We are, at a minimum, respecting this support but price action doesn’t appear to be very bullish in/around here. Just take note … again, a break here will target the 123 level.
long bond daily count
2014 is going to be one heck of a fun journey …
rock on, ok?
BART
remove bias, trade what you SEE – JP Morgan
Posted on December 31, 2013 Leave a Comment
does ANYONE remember the EMOTIONS of March 2009? do you think ANYONE in their right mind would recommend a BUY on the XLF in MAR 2009? well, just as a reminder here it is …
XLF at the LOW
why am I pulling this thread right now? well, the past couple days I have received some very convincing emails around how WRONG I am w/ regard to the PATTERNS that are appearing in the US Equity Market. Here’s the dirty little secret .. I am NOT wrong because I just look for PATTERNS. the PATTERN will work or it won’t. Over time, this EDGE will show profitability IF I manage the RISK.
a couple years ago I had the amazing opportunity to present to the entire MTA (www.mta.org) on PATTERN recognition as an “emerging CMT.” I presented a bunch of charts showing some GREAT set-ups based on PATTERNS. No moving averages, bollinger bands, MACD, stochastics or any of that “stuff.” Frankly, I believe they work but, honestly, I don’t understand them that well. I like numbers, music and geometry.
here’s the chart that I presented on the BUY of JPM. If you want me to go over the details of the chart, let me know by email and I will explain. The PATTERN that was present was a BUY at 15 dollars. BUY JPM at 15 …
I am presenting this, again, because at the HEIGHT of BEARISHNESS I was a BULL!
JPM 2009 LOW
here’s the AMAZING SELL PATTERN appearing on JPM:
JPM SELL Pattern …
So … the SHORT PATTERN that has appeared on JPM is AWESOME! Why AWESOME? Because … the tightness of the 60-61 level has all the RATIO’s to create a pattern coming together. It’s that SIMPLE. When the “ratio’s” come together so tightly we can MANAGE RISK BETTER ….
one last, the .618 price projection (from the all time low-all time high-2009 low) was hit, exactly, today. So, 58.48 could do it.
if we get above, say, 64 this puppy could “cook off” higher and the band will play on and I’ll continue to eat my “bearish pumpkin soup.”
make it a GREAT 2014!
BART
Bart's Charts 