Chinese Yuan continued
Posted on March 5, 2014 Leave a Comment
in our last post we proposed 3 outcomes:
- the intervention was a shot across the bow … ruffle the feathers, so to speak, of the derivatives and carry trades being worked on this “no brainer” trade…
- it was the normal course of events, and things would return back to normal.
- this was a trend change and it could have global repercussions.
obviously, we don’t want the last one and right now it appears that we are somewhere in between the first two bullets above. that being said, trying to NOT take into account that this isn’t truly a liquid instrument I still “trust” that the patterns will prevail. So, some key levels are noted. Let’s watch the show because the last thing we want is support to hold and then interventions and massive moves up to occur.
right now …everything is normal?
Chart of the Day … the BEARISH PATTERN completing on XLF
Posted on March 5, 2014 Leave a Comment
CLIFF NOTE: the classic AB=CD sell pattern is complete on the XLF.
my last post on XLF depicting this pattern: https://bartscharts.com/2013/09/14/part-ii-the-sp-500-and-too-big-to-fail/
it’s all probability and, quite frankly, the probability certainly appears to be in the favor of the bulls …
so, the financials “broke out” and, as a PURE pattern recognition chartist they broke out right into a bearish sell pattern …
WYNN pattern complete
Posted on March 5, 2014 2 Comments
cliff notes:
- candle strength is still strong but the target that we ID’d has been hit.
- wait for a MONTHLY signal reversal candle to go short.
- the last 4 months of candles are very powerful, so be patient.
- the original sell pattern got steam rolled so … wait for some weakness on this one.
- https://bartscharts.com/2014/02/27/wynn-update/ – was last update
A monster move …
Posted on March 3, 2014 Leave a Comment
a lot of work goes into finding high probability set-ups … this was our last post on Coffee Futures and SBUX. I had been trying to find an end (not trying to call a top but simply look for a pattern) to the SBUX run. Ratio analysis was finally sealed the deal for me …
the cliff notes was that it wasn’t the price of coffee but the relative strength (COFFEE/SBUX) that had synced nicely.
the Coffee futures came down to the monthly node ID’d here:
and the result …
folks, this is a monster move! so what happened to the ratio?
the COFFEE/SBUX ratio before:
the COFFEE/SBUX ratio after:
here’s the charts of SBUX and GMCR
Russia surprise rate hike …
Posted on March 3, 2014 Leave a Comment
Gorilla’s are starting to juggle more dynamite … last week China, this AM Russia.
Stay tuned ….
TOO BIG TO FAIL …again?
Posted on March 2, 2014 Leave a Comment
it’s Sunday night and another 10-12″ is coming our way in Leesburg, VA. The Asian markets are opening down 1-1.3% and EVERYONE is focusing on Ukraine. And, well, rightly so. That being said, believe we also need to look over at China. A financial crisis is brewing. The Chinese Yuan crashed last week due to intervention by the Chinese government. Why is this a big deal? The same reason 2007-2008 was a thumping … D E R I V A T I V E S. Leveraged carry trades have been the no brainer trade …that all got spooked last week. The potential losses to the “too big to fail” banks is in the 100’s of billions …
Folks … get ready to rumble …
GOOG update …
Posted on March 1, 2014 Leave a Comment
continuing to work GOOG as one, if note the most, “important” stocks to be watching w/ regards to it’s weighting, psychological effect, etc …click the link below to see previous posts. we are in another zone of targets that “probably won’t” hold it, because as luck would have it his stock is NEVER going to go down.
https://bartscharts.com//?s=goog
did some quick geometry, like that of IBB, and it’s looking like GOOG has or is about to “parabolic” … but don’t worry about that because, well, the stock is never going down.
at or close to being parabolic … but don’t worry, it’s never going down.
Dollar Index Update
Posted on February 28, 2014 Leave a Comment
The Dollar and the Currency Market is, again, the Gorilla in the corner juggling dynamite. Per our last post (https://bartscharts.com/2014/02/19/dollar-index-positive-reversal-forming-on-daily/) we mentioned a potential positive reversal (which has been defeated) and one more target lower in/around 79.53-79.60. This is EXTREMELY important for the thesis of the Dollar moving up …
WYNN update …
Posted on February 27, 2014 2 Comments
CLIFF NOTES:
- the PATTERN from the IPO was crushed….
- recent 3 month candles are HUGE!
- the patterns shown are BEARISH.
- FOR MY FELLOW CHART PEOPLE: the PATTERN in price was defeated, however, the PATTERN in time is MARCH. We’ll know…soon what will happen.
- THESIS: IF WYNN keeps going HIGHER so will the stock market (bullish) HOWEVER, if people are BUYING a company that makes its living on speculation, tourism and “it didn’t happen here” Vegas — then isn’t it a contrarian indicator that this ENTIRE rally since 2009 is a house of cards? We will find out — soon.
WYNN “slaughtered” the PATTERN at/around 180 w/ a vengeance …. KABOOM!
Folks, it didn’t even whimper at a pattern that had it’s genesis from WYNN’s IPO …
So .. I asked myself, what the heck does WYNN do? Here’s the summary of the stock that people are buying:
“Wynn Resorts Ltd. develops, owns and operates destination casino resorts. The company operates through two segments: Las Vegas Operations and Macau Operations. The company provides hotel rooms and suites; table games; slot machines; a race and sports book; and a poker room of casino gaming space, including a sky casino and private gaming salons; casual and fine dining in food and beverage outlets; spas and salons; lounges; and boutiques. “
Full disclosure — I have stayed at the WYNN and, well, it’s amazing … if you get the chance, spend the extra bucks and do it. Well done, amazing service, first class! So, here’s the rub. WYNN, no matter how much net worth you have, is a choice and the last 3 months candles are the STRONGEST in the history of this stock. So, again, what am I missing? Sure doesn’t feel like the roaring 20’s right now or even the euphoria rolling into 2000.
Folks, this defies convention … when this puppy is hit by Sir Issac Newton, watch out below ….
WYNN … seriously?
